FP Draft 1
Anson
2023-06-14
Goal: Compare super claims 1, 3, and 5. 1 : Not Happening 3: Climate Impacts Not Bad 5: Science/Scientist Not Reliable
knitr::opts_chunk$set(echo = TRUE)
library(jsonlite) # allows us to read in json files
library(tidyverse) # allows us to do lots of data manipulation and basic data science
library(here) # allows us to cut out long file paths (ex. "users/connor/dowloads/etc")
library(forcats) #
library(tidytext) # allows us to tokenize data
library(dplyr) # allows us to manipulate dataframes
library(stringr) # allows us to count the number of words in a cell
library(quanteda) # allows us to tokenize data
library(quanteda.textplots) # allows us to make network plots
library(gridExtra) # allows us to combine multiple plots into 1
library(wordcloud) # allows us to generate word clouds
library(fmsb)
library(plotly)
library(ggthemes)
library(tm)
library(syuzhet)
library(wordcloud2)nature_analysis <- read_csv(here("data/training.csv"))## Rows: 23436 Columns: 2
## ── Column specification ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
## Delimiter: ","
## chr (2): text, claim
##
## ℹ Use `spec()` to retrieve the full column specification for this data.
## ℹ Specify the column types or set `show_col_types = FALSE` to quiet this message.#Super Claim 1 Not Happening Filter() to select super claim 1
na_1 <- nature_analysis %>%
filter(str_detect(claim, "1_"))Add word_count column using mutate()
na_1 <- na_1 %>%
mutate(word_count = str_count(na_1$text, "\\S+"))Distribution visual, geom_histogram
Tokenize using unnest_tokens() to seprate text into words
na_1_tokenized <- na_1 %>%
unnest_tokens(words, text)
na_1_tokenized <- na_1_tokenized %>%
count(words) %>%
arrange(desc(n))Filter() out stopwords()
na_1_tokenized <- na_1_tokenized %>%
filter(!words %in% stopwords("english"))Word Cloud 1
wordcloud(na_1_tokenized$words, freq = na_1_tokenized$n, max.words = 200, min.freq = 5, random.order = FALSE, colors = brewer.pal(12, "Paired"))
na_1_corpus <- corpus(na_1$text)
toks <- na_1_corpus %>%
tokens(remove_punct = TRUE) %>%
tokens_tolower() %>%
tokens_remove(pattern = stopwords("english"), padding = FALSE)
fcmat <- fcm(toks, context = "window", tri = FALSE)
feat <- names(topfeatures(fcmat, 30))
fcm_select(fcmat, pattern = feat) %>%
textplot_network(min_freq = 0.5)
na_1_claims <- na_1 %>%
select(text)
ngrams <- na_1_claims %>%
unnest_tokens(bigram, text, token = "ngrams", n = 2)
ngrams <- ngrams %>%
separate(bigram, c("word1", "word2"), sep = " ")
ngrams <- ngrams %>%
filter(!word1 %in% stop_words$word) %>%
filter(!word2 %in% stop_words$word)
ngrams <- ngrams %>%
unite(bigram, word1, word2, sep=" ")
ngrams_counts <- ngrams %>%
count(bigram, sort = TRUE)#nrc_lexicon <- get_sentiments("nrc")#Super Claim 3 Climate Impacts Not Bad FIlter() for super claim 3
na_3 <- nature_analysis %>%
filter(str_detect(claim, "3_"))Add word_count column using mutate()
na_3 <- na_3 %>%
mutate(word_count = str_count(na_3$text, "\\S+"))Distribution visual, geom_histogram
Tokenize using unnest_tokens()
na_3_tokenized <- na_3 %>%
unnest_tokens(words, text)
na_3_tokenized <- na_3_tokenized %>%
count(words) %>%
arrange(desc(n))Filter() out stopwords()
na_3_tokenized <- na_3_tokenized %>%
anti_join(stop_words, by = c("words" = "word")) %>%
filter(!words %in% c("et", "al", "2"))Word Cloud 3
wordcloud(na_3_tokenized$words, freq = na_3_tokenized$n, max.words = 200, min.freq = 5, random.order = FALSE, random.color = FALSE, colors = brewer.pal(12, "Paired"))
na_3_corpus <- corpus(na_3$text)
toks <- na_3_corpus %>%
tokens(remove_punct = TRUE) %>%
tokens_tolower() %>%
tokens_remove(pattern = stopwords("english"), padding = FALSE)
fcmat <- fcm(toks, context = "window", tri = FALSE)
feat <- names(topfeatures(fcmat, 30))
fcm_select(fcmat, pattern = feat) %>%
textplot_network(min_freq = 0.5)
na_3_claims <- na_3 %>%
select(text)
ngrams_3 <- na_3_claims %>%
unnest_tokens(bigram, text, token = "ngrams", n = 2)
ngrams_3 <- ngrams_3 %>%
separate(bigram, c("word1", "word2"), sep = " ")
ngrams_3 <- ngrams_3 %>%
filter(!word1 %in% stop_words$word) %>%
filter(!word2 %in% stop_words$word)
ngrams_3 <- ngrams_3 %>%
unite(bigrams, word1, word2, sep = " ")
ngrams_3 <- ngrams_3 %>%
count(bigrams, sort = TRUE)#Super Claim 5 Science/Scientist Not Reliable FIlter() for super claim 5
na_5 <- nature_analysis %>%
filter(str_detect(claim, "5_"))Add word_count column using mutate()
na_5 <- na_5 %>%
mutate(word_count = str_count(na_5$text, "\\S+"))Distribution visual, geom_histogram
Tokenize using unnest_tokens()
na_5_tokenzied <- nature_analysis %>%
unnest_tokens(words, text)
na_5_tokenzied <- na_5_tokenzied %>%
count(words) %>%
arrange(desc(n))Filter() out stopwords()
na_5_tokenzied <- na_5_tokenzied %>%
filter(!words %in% stopwords("english"))Word Cloud 5
wordcloud(na_5_tokenzied$words, freq = na_5_tokenzied$n, max.words = 200, min.freq = 5, random.order = FALSE, random.color = FALSE, color = brewer.pal(12, "Paired"))
na_5_corpus <- corpus(na_5$text)
toks <- na_5_corpus %>%
tokens(remove_punct = TRUE) %>%
tokens_tolower() %>%
tokens_remove(pattern = stopwords("english"), padding = FALSE)
fcmat <- fcm(toks, context = "window", tri = FALSE)
feat <- names(topfeatures(fcmat, 30))
fcm_select(fcmat, pattern = feat) %>%
textplot_network(min_freq = 0.5)
na_5_claims <- na_5 %>%
select(text)
ngrams_5 <- na_5_claims %>%
unnest_tokens(bigram, text, token = "ngrams", n = 2)
ngrams_5 <- ngrams_5 %>%
separate(bigram, c("word1", "word2"), sep = " ")
ngrams_5 <- ngrams_5 %>%
filter(!word1 %in% stop_words$word) %>%
filter(!word2 %in% stop_words$word)
ngrams_5 <- ngrams_5 %>%
unite(bigram, word1, word2, sep = " ")
ngrams_5 <- ngrams_5 %>%
count(bigram, sort = TRUE)#Comparison Cloud code
na_1_matp <- na_1_claims %>%
select(text)
na_3_matp <- na_3_claims %>%
select(text)
na_5_matp <- na_5_claims %>%
select(text)
na_1_matrix <- as.matrix.data.frame(na_1_matp)
na_3_matrix <- as.matrix.data.frame(na_3_matp)
na_5_matrix <- as.matrix.data.frame(na_5_matp)
na_1_text <- apply(na_1_matrix, 1, toString)
na_3_text <- apply(na_3_matrix, 1, toString)
na_5_text <- apply(na_5_matrix, 1, toString)
na_list <- list(na_1_text, na_3_text, na_5_text)
na_list <- lapply(na_list, as.vector.data.frame)
unlist(na_list)## [1] "Now, I am very interested in the AMO, since it strongly influences Atlantic hurricanes, Arctic sea ice, and Greenland climate. We are already seeing a recovery of the Atlantic sector of the Arctic sea ice, and some hints of cooling in Greenland."
## [2] "I am sure that we can expect to see similar coverage about the 2nd highest Northern Sea Ice Area minimum, like we saw for the Arctic in 2011, e.g.:"
## [3] "Moreover the WBDGE site writes that Arctic sea ice has grown strongly over last year and that there has been no melting trend there in almost 10 years."
## [4] "UPDATE : Marc at ABC NewsWatch usefully summarises the flood history of SE Queensland here . Guess what, there have been less severe floods and more severe floods and no floods at all and nothing has changed. Did anthropogenic CO2 cause the floods in 1893 perhaps? Hang on, lets get the script right : No direct link between global warming and the 1893 floods, but climate change would lead to heavier, more frequent rain. Unspoken conclusion: leading to more floods like the one we just happen by chance to be talking about right now Thats the sneaky thing about flood plains, they flood duh."
## [5] "The facts don't lie and the empirical evidence is overwhelming - tiny global warming over last 15 years causes James Lovelock to admit he was wrong - extreme climate change not in the cards"
## [6] "The data include long time period duration (in excess of 30 years) tide gauge station records covering the Hawaiian Islands, Alaska and the Pacific, Gulf Coast and Atlantic coastline regions of the U.S. as well as many other global wide coastal locations. This latest NOAA data shows unchanging linear trends in the rate of sea level rise worldwide with many of these records including 100 year and longer measurement duration periods."
## [7] "A visit to IceAgeNow.info yielded headlines of news stories last week that included \"Record ColdMillions of Americans hit by Propane Shortage\"; \"Ice and Snow Closed Texas highways This Morning\"; \"Ice-cover Shuts Down Work on New Hudson River Bridge\" and so you understand this is a global phenomenon \"KashmirHeaviest January Snowfall in a Decade\";\"Heavy Snowfall Sweeps Eastern Turkey\"; \"RomaniaHeavy Snowfall and Blizzard\"; and \"Bangkok Suffers Coldest Night in Three DecadesDeath Roll Mounts.\""
## [8] "Clearly, erosion is a problem here, yet the authors of the paper fail to give it any credence. Of course the fossil record will show sea level rise!"
## [9] "A new briefing paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation concludes that the most recent (September 2014) floods in the Kashmir region of India-Pakistan border which killed several dozen of people are a recurring feature of the Indian Monsoon and not linked to climate change."
## [10] "Since the change point in 2007, September 21 Arctic ice (15% concentration) extent has been expanding at a linear rate of 247,875 km / year. Using the standard climate science metric, that is a gain of 4,201 Manhattans per year."
## [11] "Winter? Teesdale in County Durham blanketed in snow on May 23 in what is likely to be Britains coldest spring since 1962"
## [12] "This year, the recent 12 Month period temperature is -4.3 F cooler than for example 1932 . And if we compare with 1955 it is ??? 3.7 F cooler."
## [13] "Read here . The global warming alarmists claim that an area such as the Amazon should experience greater frequency of severe droughts and floods. Does any evidence support these claims? A researcher examined the climate history of the Amazon and found no trend of severe events that would support the global warming alarmist predictions."
## [14] "Temperatures in Antarctica have hit a balmy -109F over the last two days, which can mean only one thing tropical vacation"
## [15] "Last winter had the largest sea ice extent in the last six years, the largest North American snow extent on record, and the second largest northern hemisphere snow extent on record. On one day in February, at least 49 US states had snow cover. Northern hemisphere albedo was very high last winter."
## [16] "The Great Barrier Reef is being damaged by global warming in fact, there is no trend in the sea surface temperature of the reef over the last 40 years."
## [17] "(i) Over the last 16 years, global average temperature, as measured by both thermometers and satellite sensors, has displayed no statistically significant warming; over the same period, atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by 10%."
## [18] "This PR from McGill University claims that the ???deep ocean heat has been unable to get out and melt back the wintertime Antarctic ice??. That might be true, but still, there are polynyas present in the location of interest (Weddell Sea) that they don??t mention. In fact, there??s even a large offshore polynya in progress in the Weddell Sea right now according to NSIDC imagery, and the Weddell sea has a lot more ice where it is not supposed to be according to ???normals??. See below ??? Anthony"
## [19] "Anecdotally, from my weather station here on the Upper North Shore in Sydney, this has been the Year without a Summer. Mean temperatures for December, January and February were 18.6C, 21.5C and 21.6C, significantly lower than 2010/11 (21.7, 23.9, 24.1) and 2009/10 (22.9, 23.9, 23.4)."
## [20] "However, glaciologists find such figures inherently ludicrous, pointing out that most Himalayan glaciers are hundreds of feet thick and could not melt fast enough to vanish by 2035 unless there was a huge global temperature rise. The maximum rate of decline in thickness seen in glaciers at the moment is 2-3 feet a year and most are far lower."
## [21] "3. The global cooling predictions that I made in 2000, based on recurring patterns of PDO and global climate, have so far proven to be correct."
## [22] "In the words of the authors, \"there has been no significant warming or cooling during the entire period 1876-1993 for the annual data and the seasonal temperature data.\" What it means"
## [23] "officials and public planning experts\" scheduled to meet with Rosenberg will manage to find private transportation and hold their global warming forum today, or whether the record snow and bitter cold will force it to be rescheduled."
## [24] "I want to know when global warming will start. Im still freezing my ass off at the end of April."
## [25] "Truth n1 The Mean Global Temperature has been stable since 1 997, despite a continuous increase of the CO 2 content of the air: how could one say that the increase of the CO 2 content of the air is the cause of the increase of the temperature?"
## [26] "The programme focuses in on the two Oklahoma tornadoes of May 2013, as an example. They fail to point out though, only one was of the strongest category, an EF-5, of which 59 have occurred since 1953."
## [27] "A Dormant Sun: In February, TWTW reported a study from the Pulkovo Observatory in Russia stating that if the current solar cycle pattern continues, with little solar activity, the globe may experience a new Little Ice Age. To the researcher, what is necessary to understanding the influence of the sun is the response of the earth is lagged behind the solar cycles. http://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/apr/article/view/14754/10140"
## [28] "Iremember warm November days at the beach in Bournemouth during the 1960s, but global warming has turned the weather cold."
## [29] "Based on the last 25 years, 2013 was the fourth coldest. If we look at the average temperatures for the last 25 years, we see that they have pretty much remained constant."
## [30] "Schellnhuber claims he is not at all surpisedby the 15-year absence of warming. Chart source: www.drroyspencer.com ."
## [31] "* STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE GUSTING TO 55 MPH?? RESULTING IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS?? INCLUDING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND WHITE OUT CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON?? AND WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY FROM 2 PM THROUGH THIS EVENING."
## [32] "In popular science journalism thelatestis always the best. With all the explanations for the pause in global surface temperatures since 1997 there are now over 30 of them it is always the most recently published one that is the answer. This time its the Atlantic Ocean thats to blame. A paper published in Science says that a 30-year periodicity warms and cools the world by sequestering heat below the oceans surface and then releasing it. You dont have to look very deeply at the science to realise that, despite the headlines, no one has come up with an answer to the pause. --David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 26 August 2014"
## [33] "Never fear, however, the Met Office has now rushed to the rescue. According to its computer models, any cooling caused by the lack of sunspots will only retard the worlds inexorable warming by two years, implying that by 2100 temperatures could have risen by as much as 6 degrees."
## [34] "Now predicting the exact date of the next Bond Event could be a bit hard. Some folks count the L.I.A. as the last one, but I think it was a Half Bond event . That would make Bond 1 the start of The Dark Ages in 540 AD and put the Bond Event Zero at 1470+540= 2010 AD or so start date. Just about the time the sun went quiet (or 2040 AD if you use a 1500 year pulse). Or right about now. Do realize that D.O. Events are warming often preceding a cold plunge. A related thing is the Heinrich Event that is similar but shows ice rafted debris when still in a cold phase. Bond Events catch the cold plunge after the warm, during interglacials. So one reasonable surmise is that the recent warming period from 1970 to now was just a D.O. event, before the Bond Event drop."
## [35] "One slight problem with Serrezes little theory, the ice is growing around pretty much all of the continent, and not just the small area of West Antarctic that he refers to."
## [36] "The Moscow region saw temperatures of -17 to -18 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, and the record cold temperatures are expected to linger for at least three more days. Thermometers in Siberia touched -50 degrees Celsius, which is also abnormal for December."
## [37] "Meanwhile back in the real world, UAH shows that Antarctica is cooling at a rate of almost 1C / century."
## [38] "Here??s sorted list of North Atlantic hurricane ACE numbers from 1950-2013 ??? this year tied for 5th lowest on record http://models.weatherbell.com/ace thru dec31 sort.dat"
## [39] "This lower limit of instrumental uncertainty implies that Earths fever is indistinguishable from zero Celsius, at the 1 level, across the entire 20th century."
## [40] "Global sea ice area, as of Sunday morning, stood at 1.005 million square kilometers above average."
## [41] "Accumulations of snow were likely to exceed 50cm above 300m, and 100cm above 500m. Smaller amounts of snow were expected below 300m."
## [42] "As Ive shown several times already, even the 2009 Black Saturday fires were far from our biggest recorded - in 1851. NSW has had several severe October fires that were bigger and deadlier than this years."
## [43] "German weather site www.wetter.net here reports that 2013 in Germany was the second coldest year in a decade."
## [44] "New Report: 'Extreme Weather Report 2012': 'Latest peer-reviewed studies, data & analyses undermine claims that current weather is 'unprecedented' or a 'new normal' -- Climate Depot's New 35-Page Report: 'Current weather is neither historically unprecedented, nor unusual' -- 'Extreme weather events are ever present, and there is no evidence of systematic increases' -- Presented at UN Climate Conference in Doha, Qatar on Dec. 6, 2012"
## [45] "Current Snow Conditions: Alpine is Closed ??? Too much snow to safely enjoy. (Extreme Avalanche Danger and High Winds)"
## [46] "This also contradicts all other studies that show a far lower sea-level rise."
## [47] "Its official: this March in northeastern Germany is the coldest in 130 years, and could be the coldest since records began."
## [48] "Apparently there was less ice in the Eastern Arctic in 1935 than there was during the all-time-record-lowest-Armageddon-we-are-all-doomed-irreversible-tipping-point summer of 2007."
## [49] "So we should disregard the lessons from past data on hail in China, extreme precipitation events in Hawaii, floods in southern Germany, or the historical occurences of other extreme weather, and instead turn to climate model projections for guidance? We can only hope that he is kidding."
## [50] "As you can see from the graph below global sea ice extent is nearly on average since 1979 according to satellite measurement. Arctic sea ice is slightly below average and Antarctic sea ice is above average. The total sea ice extent shows no obvious influence from global warming."
## [51] "This years ice on the Hudson Bay is not only doubling and tripling previous years, but quadrupling some years as well,says reader Ralph Fato. Rapid Ice increase in the past week."
## [52] "The atmosphere has not been warming for over 18 years even though atmospheric CO2 content has been increasing."
## [53] "Then also, why would we want to end a recent lull in harsh weather conditions? Like, for example, the lack of increase in the strength or frequency of landfall hurricanes in the worlds five main hurricane basins during the past 50-70 years; the lack of increase in the strength or frequency in tropical Atlantic hurricane development during the past 370 years; the longest U.S. period ever recorded without intense Category 3-5 hurricane landfall; and no trend since 1950 evidencing any increased frequency of strong (F3-F-5) U.S. tornadoes."
## [54] "Despite the supposedly unprecedented warming of the twentieth century, there has been no increase in the intensity or frequency of tropical cyclones globally or in any of the specific ocean basins."
## [55] "The cool conditions experienced in autumn 2011 are largely a result of the strong 2010/11 La Nia event which brought heavy rainfall and cool daytime temperatures to Australia, before decaying in late autumn. Of particular significance was March 2011 Australias coldest and wettest March on record for maximum temperatures and third wettest month on record (for any calendar month)."
## [56] "The UK had its coldest winter for 13 years , bucking a recent trend of mild temperatures, the Met Office has said."
## [57] "Actually, according to a peer-reviewed paper just published in Nature Climate Change, there has been no statistically-significant global warming for the past 20 years ."
## [58] "There are two obvious problems with the National Climate Assessment. The first is the fact that the global mean temperature has not increased in the past seventeen years. This means that the Assessment is claiming that the effects (disruption) are preceding the cause (warming). I guess the disruption will really be bad if temperatures do actually start to go up."
## [59] "Satellite data has shown thatsea ice around Antarctic has increased in size by twenty percent since imaging of the continent began in 1979. According to this study, though, too much ice requires the penguins to travel further to gather food for their chicks. Too little ice means less krill for the penguins to eat."
## [60] "An important article appeared in the literature recently with some surprising results given the predictions of the climate models. Konstantinos Andreadis and Dennis Lettenmaier of the University of Washington have published a paper in Geophysical Research Letters entitled Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States, and the results are peculiarin light of climate model projectionsto say the least. In the abstract, they write Droughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a small portion of the country over the last century."
## [61] "The droughts of the 1930s and 1950s were stronger than those of the 2000s according to the Palmer Drought Severity Index."
## [62] "Sea ice surrounding Antarctica reached a new record high extent this year, covering more of the southern oceans than it has since scientists began a long-term satellite record to map sea ice extent in the late 1970s. The upward trend in the Antarctic, however, is only about a third of the magnitude of the rapid loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean."
## [63] "Although there is a consistent movement in the region toward earlier tornado activity, it is difficult to pinpoint a cause, said Paul Stoy, assistant professor in the Department of Land Resources and Environmental Sciences at MSU and co-author of the new study. Records of tornado activity in the U.S. only date back to the 1950s, making it difficult to study changing trends in tornado activity. Furthermore, tornadoes can be influenced by many regional factors, including topography of the land and areas where cooler air meets warm, subtropical air, making it difficult to attribute the shift in the tornado season to any one factor, he said."
## [64] "The simple fact is that heat waves are nothing new. In 1936 a North American heat wave was the most severe in the modern history of the continent. It occurred in the middle of the Great Depression, killing more than 5,000 Americans and desiccating vast amounts of crops. To put it in perspective, there were no home air conditioning appliances at the time. People depended on fans to circulate the air."
## [65] "The Northern Hemisphere, North Atlantic, North Pacific and East Pacific SST Anomalies are all dropping. It will not be long before the Atlantic Coast and the Arctic regions will show similar cooling as the AMO goes cool or negative. North America is more likely see much cold weather during the next 20-30 years rather than global warming of 3-6C as predicted by the IPCC. The recent severe winter weather along Alaska and the US east coast was just a sample of what may lie ahead. This cooling has been building for a decade now. So how can global warming be causing current and future extreme weather events when global warming as predicted has not been happening for a decade and is unlikely to happen during the next 30 years since the world 60-year climate cycle is heading for colder weather due to changing ocean surface temperatures and changes in deep ocean currents?"
## [66] "There were at least three major droughts in nineteenth century North America: one from the mid-1850s to the mid-1860s, one in the 1870s, and one in the 1890s. There was also a drought around 1820; the periods from 1816 to 1844 and from 1849 to 1880 were rather dry, and the 19th century overall was a dry century for the Great Plains. While there was little rain-gauge data from the mid-19th century in the middle of the US, there were plenty of trees, and tree-ring data showed evidence of a major drought from around 1856 to around 1865. Native Americans were hard hit, as the bison they depended upon on the Plains moved to river valleys in search of water, and those valleys were full of Natives and settlers alike. The river valleys were also home to the humans grazing animals, which competed against the bison for food. The result was starvation for many of the bison."
## [67] "This low climate sensitivity along with ocean cycles like the AMO, ENSO, and PDO may be the reason for no warming since 1998. See Bob Tisdales post in WUWT here for reinforcement of that idea."
## [68] "After years of decline, glaciers in Norway are again growing, reports the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE). Read more here ."
## [69] "According to the authors, the modern-day grounding-line retreat of the WAIS is part of an ongoing recession that has been underway since the early to mid-Holocene. As a result, according to the authors, \"it is not a consequence of anthropogenic warming or recent sea level rise.\" Hence, it is clear that climate change advocates who argue that CO 2 -induced global warming is responsible for every iceberg that breaks free of the WAIS, or every inch of WAIS retreat, are unjustified in continuing to make such claims."
## [70] "With temperatures going down rather than up, the devoted even had to retire the term ???global warming?? altogether."
## [71] "In another paper, Davi et al . (2006) developed a reconstruction of streamflow that extended from 1637 to 1997, based on absolutely dated tree-ring-width chronologies from five sampling sites in west-central Mongolia, all of which sites were in or near the Selenge River basin, the largest river in Mongolia. Of the ten wettest five-year periods, only two occurred during the 20th century (1990-1994 and 1917-1921, the second and eighth wettest of the ten extreme periods, respectively), once again indicative of a propensity for less flooding during the warmest portion of the 360-year period."
## [72] "If you discover Earths temperature has stabilized at a local high since 1998, you can expect it to begin cooling soon. Maybe -15C. Because a new glacial has begun."
## [73] "It is also evident from the sea-level reconstruction that, notwithstanding the changes in temperature over the past millennium, sea level has varied by only 20 cm (8 in) either side of the millennial mean."
## [74] "Although we have been enmeshed in a long debate over global warming and climate change, there has been no warming for over 16 years. (1)"
## [75] "The Met Office now confirms on its climate blog that no significant warming has occurred recently: We agree with Mr Rose that there has only been a very small amount of warming in the 21st Century."
## [76] "On the news there are plenty of reports of winter storms hitting places all over Europe, into Asia, and even in the Eastern USA. There are some pretty grim cold weather stories."
## [77] "The Second Elephant in the Room : The IPCC ignores the second, larger elephant in the room. Over 33 years of satellite data that are compiled by two independent groups and separately supported by four sets of balloon data. These temperature data are comprehensive globally, except at the poles. They show a pronounced warming over the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere, little or no warming over the Tropics or the Southern Hemisphere and a cooling around Antarctica. The global warming models are inconsistent with these data. For some reason, one-third global warming does not sound compelling."
## [78] "You may see that some things haven't changed but most technical details have become obsolete after these short four years. For example, no one talks about the increasing strength and frequency of tropical storms - because it has evidently not been taking place since 2006."
## [79] "The decade with the most record monthly maximum temperatures, was the 1930s. Ten months set their all time record below 350 ppm CO2."
## [80] "The world has not warmed up very much since the millennium. Twelve years is a reasonable time it (the temperature) has stayed almost constant, whereas it should have been rising carbon dioxide is rising, no question about that."
## [81] "Read here . It is common knowledge that global temperatures have not increased over the last 15 years despite massive new amounts of human CO2 emissions. And it is well known that the IPCC climate \"experts\" have been massively befuddled by this."
## [82] "Meanwhile, correspondent Black tries to convince us that the majority of Himalayan glaciers are growing. Late last year, says Black, the Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (Icimod) released data showing that across 10 regularly studied glaciers, the rate of ice loss had doubled since the 1980s."
## [83] "This year is likely to be the ninth warmest on record, with global temperatures in 2012 cooler than the average for the past decade"
## [84] "Of the 100 papers we identified, 65 didnt have anything to do with recent global temperature trends (these typified papers published prior to about 2010). Of the remaining 35 papers, every single one of them acknowledged in some way that a hiatus, pause, or slowdown in global warming was occurring."
## [85] "It has now been 831 days since the US was struck by any hurricane, and 6,695 days since the US was hit by a category 5 hurricane."
## [86] "These estimates are much lower than previous estimates, particularly on the implied acceleration. For instance Rignot et al 2011 looking at the period calculated polar ice melt contribution to sea levels of 0.91 mm yr 1 , 50% higher than the UNIPCC. Further the acceleration on this paper from polar ice melt was 0.1 mm yr 2 1 mm yr 2 and 0. 133 mm yr 2 including non-polar ice melt. Even at this rate of acceleration ice melt would only contribute 6 inches (150mm) to sea level rise. The upper NOAA estimates seem to be based upon taking this extreme figures and doubling them."
## [87] "Is global warming causing snow to melt thereby increasing the flow in the winter season? Absolutely not. St. George discovers that Streamflow between October and March is most strongly related to precipitation between August and October, with significant relationships observed using lags up to 6 months. Sure enough, he finds that Rising winter discharge across the basin has coincided with increasing annual and seasonal precipitation and that This change largely reflects increases in summer (MayJuly) and autumn (AugustOctober) precipitation, as no significant trends were observed for winter (November to January) precipitation."
## [88] "It is abundantly clear from Stambaugh et al.'s findings that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about any 20th or 21st century droughts that may have occurred throughout the agricultural heartland of the United States. It is also clear that the much greater droughts of the past millennium occurred during periods of both relative cold and relative warmth, as well as the transitions between them. Thus, to testify that \"droughts are becoming longer and more intense,\" and to imply that they are doing so because of global warming, is to be doubly disingenuous."
## [89] "30 inches (75 cm) of snow were measured in Zurich-Fluntern, more than has ever been seen here since the measurements were taken in 1949."
## [90] "Direct studies of sea level are showing only small rises. Sea level data for the United States and a few other countries can be sighted at: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml . Most stations show a rise of sea level of about 1.7mm per year, but there is considerable variation even within a single state. Australian records can be sighted in Parker et al. 2013."
## [91] "5. (Posts chart of accumulated cyclone energy trends) ???And consequently, an inconvenient truth is, the tropical cyclone accumulated energy is down at record low levels, not record high levels.??"
## [92] "Indeed, coming after three of the last four years being the coldest since 1996, the warmth in 2014 is no more than a reflection of the weather."
## [93] "By contrast, the US has not been hit by a major hurricane in almost nine years. Climate experts say hurricanes are getting worse."
## [94] "Our thorough studies demonstrated that there was no evidence of increases in the frequency or magnitude of floods and droughts. This is not what the UNFCCC wanted to hear."
## [95] "The actual temperature data indicates the opposite. Since 1998 , the U.S. temperature trend has been a negative 3.2F degrees/century - yes, that is a minus trend covering the 16-year period from December 1997 through November 2013. And as this recent article about Alaska's cooling since the turn of the century confirms, its forest fires have not been a result of 21st century \"global warming.\""
## [96] "The official high temperature in Fort Collins today was 98 degrees, two degrees cooler than 1936. According to the rhetoric of the newspaper, 1936 shattered 2012 temperatures."
## [97] "While it's hardly mentioned in the media, the U.S. is currently in an extended and intense hurricane \"drought.\" The last Category 3 or stronger storm to make landfall was Wilma in 2005. The more than seven years since then is the longest such span in over a century."
## [98] "Listeners ended up the twilight zone?? Emerson saying the Met office predicts warming too. Does he realize that (a) the Met office have been predicting future warming every year for the last 16 years (and look how well that worked out for them), and (b) even if they are right and it warms to freakishly hot conditions in a monster El Nino in, say, 2014, unless some kind of time-bending wormhole is fritzing current physics, there is no way that can affect the trend as measured between 1997 to 2012? Do I need to explain why?"
## [99] "The past 4 years have seen 12 major landfalling hurricanes, very low but not unprecedented ??? 1984-1987 had just 11. The most is 35 (2005-2008)."
## [100] "Sea level has been rising steadily since the mid 19thC, with no evidence of long term acceleration."
## [101] "GLENN: Right. Wouldnt you just I mean, wouldnt you just be saying that natural cold is overpowering the manmade warmth? I mean, wouldnt that be good? I mean, look, if the cooling is masking the warming, the warming, according to these pinheads, is caused by man. The cooling is not caused by man. So wouldnt it mean that the non-manmade cooling is actually winning out over man? Almost like its weird how the whole system works itself out."
## [102] "The citys maximum temperature of 12.1 degrees is four below the average maximum for this time of year. For some western suburbs, it was even colder, only reaching nine in Richmond and 10 in Penrith, both eight below average and their coldest day in at least 15 years. ( source )"
## [103] "The failed hypothesis of dangerous man-made global warming is already discredited not only by the so-called \"pause\" in the rise of global temperatures. But it is also untenable because the very concept of a global climate is bogus to begin with, according to respected analyst Dr Vincent Gray."
## [104] "In 1990, the Broncos lost the Superbowl 55-10 to San Francisco (they scored two more than 2014.) Since then, there has been almost no warming on the planet. The graph below removes the Pinatubo cooled years of 1992-1994."
## [105] "So how did Katharine come to the opposite conclusion? I contacted her to find out, and she kindly told me she had used 1965 as the starting point for her analysis. As the graph clearly shows, 1965 was in the middle of a much cooler interlude which lasted from about 1960 to 1985. Since 1985 temperatures have recovered to the sort of levels seen between 1920 and 1960. Indeed the average temperature during the last decade is very slightly lower than the average of the last 100 years and the last two winters have been much cooler than normal."
## [106] "You would never know from this that the its hiding in the oceans excuse is just one unproven hypothesisand one that implies that natural variation exaggerated the warming in the 1990s, so reinforcing the lukewarm argument. Nor would you know (as Andrew Bolt recounts in his chapter in The Facts ) that the pause in global warming contradicts specific and explicit predictions such as this, from the UK Met Office: by 2014 were predicting it will be 0.3 degrees warmer than in 2004. Or that the length of the pause is now past the point where many scientists said it would disprove the hypothesis of rapid man-made warming. Dr Phil Jones, head of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, said in 2009: Bottom line: the no upward trend has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried. It now has."
## [107] "Accumulated Cyclone (hurricanes, in the North Atlantic) Energy across the world: we are near a 30 year low."
## [108] "This has nothing to do with global warming. The oceans are, of course, risingvery slowlyas they have been doing for thousands of years, since the end of the last Ice Age. The rate of rise has not increased."
## [109] "4. The behavior of global averaged annual warming in the last several years has not conformed to their expectations. To attribute this absence of warming to the occurrence of La Nia, as some have done (e.g. see ),is inappropriate as that climate feature is as much a part of climate system as any other component."
## [110] "Satellite measurements show global sea level has risen merely 0.83 inches during the first decade of the twenty-first century (a pace of eight inches for the century) and has barely risen at all since 2006. This puts alarmists in the embarrassing position of defending predictions that are not coming true in the real world."
## [111] "As the chart depicts over 12 different time periods (all ending July 2014), reality is that while CO2 levels keep increasing over time, the long-term temperature warming trend (the red curve) is not rapidly accelerating towards a tipping point of climate catastrophe."
## [112] "From 1700-1998, temperature rose at a near-uniform rate of about 1 F per century . In 1998, global warming stopped, and it has not resumed since: indeed, in the past seven years, temperature has been falling at a rate equivalent to as much as 0.7 F per decade ."
## [113] "Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was the last category 5 hurricane to hit the US. Top scientists tell us that global warming makes hurricanes more intense."
## [114] "A new study using a reconstruction of North American drought history over the last 1,000 years found that the drought of 1934 was the driest and most widespread of the last millennium."
## [115] "At this point I think Ive reached the end of the lunar cycles on various time scales. If I run into any more, Ill add them. I would only note that the 23,000 year cycle they mention in the paper is remarkably similar to the precession period of the Earth (or the potential orbital period of our Sun about a companion star) and thus is also the Maya calendar cycle. I suspect that what the Maya calendar cycle was saying was not that this is the end, but rather that this is as good as it gets and the next many thousands start a long slow slide into cold. My read on the 23,000 year cycle chart looks like were about at the turn to the other direction. Add that to a 5000 year cycle turn and an 1800 year peak warmth spot, well, lets just say Id not be moving to Alaska any time soon. Florida and Texas would be better choices."
## [116] "The CSUs prediction for a major hurricane landfall in the U.S. is also on the decidedly low side. The scientists said there is a 28 percent possibility of a Category 3 or above hurricane hitting this countrys coastline. The average for the last century was 52 percent."
## [117] "If rising atmospheric CO2 levels drive global temperatures upward, as they insist, why is Earth not suffering from the dangerous ???fever?? that Al Gore predicted? Instead, after mild warming at the end of the twentieth century, global temperatures have leveled off for the past decade, amid steadily rising carbon dioxide levels."
## [118] "Some are even talking about a repeat of the Maunder Minimum, the period in the 17th century when sunspots disappeared (and, coincidentally, the planet went through the Little Ice Age). Interesting times."
## [119] "It outlines the methodological approach that allowed him to reconstitute global warming observed during the second half of the 20th century, and the stagnation of the average temperature of the planet, precursor to the onset of cooling."
## [120] "Note how the number of melting days in the area of the Wilkins ice shelf has decreased by -0.5 days per decade between 1987 and 2008."
## [121] "Snow will begin late this morning and intensify this afternoon. The amount of snow that accumulates will depend greatly on the track of this system. The rain-snow boundary is expected to be very near Cambridge Bay with temperatures near zero degrees. Currently, snow is expected to become mixed with rain this afternoon and change back to snow later this evening. Total amounts of 10 to 15 centimetres (3.9 to 5.9) are expected by Sunday morning. A slight change in the track of the system could result in more snow or more rain."
## [122] "From the WUWT sea ice page , Antarctic Sea Ice is more than 2 standard deviations above normal:"
## [123] "Snow covered the streets of Tripoli and Duahyaha, Libya, Wednesday, December 31, 2014, also the western mountain areas and Tarhuna, Misrata and Zlitan."
## [124] "Sales: We know that, say, if you look back over the past 50 years there??s clear evidence of global warming. You know, the figures go like that. But there were figured released I think late last year that showed that there??d been a plateau for about the past 15 or so years , you know, so it was flatter. So if there??s been a plateau in recent years, how come this summer??s extreme weather events are due to climate change? Wouldn??t you have been seeing those same sorts of events all the way back those 15 years?"
## [125] "Despite global warming during the 20th century the number of tropical cyclones annually making landfall in the Philippines did not experience any net change. All variability was merely oscillatory activity around a mean trend of zero slope"
## [126] "Bonus: Dozens of blog articles about dozens of recent scientific papers that disagree with the so-called \"consensus\". A large portion of physicists in Russia, especially solar physicists, have reached a \"scientific consensus\" - as others would call it - that the Earth will enter a period of global cooling in a couple of years and the temperatures will drop to the minimum sometime in the middle of this century. Bonus: 2007 was the coldest year of the 21st century so far If they're right, a period of deep freeze will start around 2055-2060 and last for 50 years or so. These predictions are based on a detailed analysis of internal dynamics of the Sun. 2007 is the International Heliophysical Year so you're not supposed to dismiss this science without reading it. Unfortunately, I cannot verify all these statements."
## [127] "The Maldives Sea Level Curve of the last 500 years and the proposed best estimate of possible sea level changes by year 2100 This curve is a detail (without error bars, anchor points and curved breaking points) from the one presented by Mrner,(2007). Sea level has been stable for the last 30 years. Future changes in the next century are by no means alarming; at the most it would imply a return to the pre-1970 situation with an about 20 cm higher sea level as was the case from 1790 to 1970. These are the observational facts and the consequences to face for the future: i.e. no real problems and certainly no reason for any alarm and SOS message."
## [128] "In the current climate, weather experienced at a given location or region varies from year to year; in a changing climate, both the nature of that variability and the basic patterns of weather experienced can change, sometimes in counter-intuitive ways some areas may experience cooling, for instance. Indeed, taking the mean of the monthly surface or lower-troposphere global mean surface temperature anomalies from all five principal datasets, the cooling has been global throughout the 150 months since January 2001, representing one-eighth of the present century."
## [129] "Yet it is generally accepted and uncontroversial that 95 percent of the landmass of Antarctica has cooled over the last 20 years."
## [130] "We have not seen an increase in the number of storms, nor an increase in their intensity, Briggs said. It is true that some models would predict that as the surface gets warmer, more energy is available, but statistically we cant say weve seen it."
## [131] "August ACE for the Northern Hemisphere was 63 which is much less than the climatological average of 115. The Western Pacific again was much below average. It was indeed the Atlantic that produced two long-lived storms, Danielle and Earl that picked up some of the slack. The global and NH ACE remains at/near 30-year lows."
## [132] "#5. Stop lying about drought. Droughts in the US are becoming less severe and less frequent, and the US has been wetter than normal over the past year."
## [133] "Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the 'mini ice age' that began in 1645, according to the results presented by Prof Valentina Zharkova at the National Astronomy Meeting in Llandudno."
## [134] "He says 2014 was the warmest year, but NASA belatedly admitted they were wrong about thatand the UK Met Office has now validated this centurys global warming hiatus. The yearly temperatures vary by such lilliputian margins even an Ellerslie photo-finish wouldnt separate them; its impossible to claim a record for 2014."
## [135] "But the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean (90S-90N, 180-80W) have not risen in 30 years. Refer to Figure 18."
## [136] "Only yesterday, the EPA issued new proposals declaring that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from airliners threaten public health as they contribute to global warming. Indeed, only 2% of all man-made carbon dioxide emissions come from the aviation sector. Interestingly, this comes on the heels of the recent news that there has been no statistical warming for nearly 19 years based on satellite temperature measurements. Both the military and small aircraft would be exempt from these new proposals."
## [137] "I predict that there will be cold, snow and storms this winter, with lots of climate destroying Christmas lights."
## [138] "Maybe the IPCC might cotton on to the additional reality that our current very weak solar cycle 24 is not exactly portending warmer times."
## [139] "Some stations in the American Midwest reported minimum temperatures at or above 90 F (32 C) such as 91 F (33 C) at Lincoln, Nebraska on July 25, 1936; the next and most recent time this is known to have happened is a handful of 90 F (32 C) minimums during a similar heat wave in late June 1988 but far less intense than that of 1936."
## [140] "Recent global climate variation is entirely within natural cyclical variation, cooling trend now underway and is likely to continue to 2030's, according to best data."
## [141] "Recently, German scientists have argued that two naturally occurring cycles will combine to lower global temperatures to levels corresponding with the Little Ice Age of 1870. According to scientists declining solar activity and the 65-year Atlantic and Pacific Ocean oscillation cycle will cause the earth to cool during this century."
## [142] "1776 The Pointe--Pitre hurricane was at one point the deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record. At least 6,000fatalities occurred on Guadeloupe, which was a higher death toll than any known hurricane before it. It also struck Louisiana, but there was no warning nor knowledge of the deaths on Guadeloupe when it did. It also affected Antigua and Martinique early in its duration."
## [143] "2. Global cooling is becoming a trend but it's not clear whether that trend is accelerating and unequivocal - circumstantial at this point."
## [144] "According to the Central England Temperature Series, England has just experienced its coldest Spring since 1891, says this article by Paul Homewood."
## [145] "Last month, a report by the UKs Met Office which had predicted global temperatures would rise by half a degree centigrade over the past 10 years faced ridicule after it emerged that temperatures had actually dropped by 0.014 degrees."
## [146] "In the real UK (the one that exists outside the Met Office Supercomputers) the last three summers have all been complete washouts, the last two winters have been bitter cold, and over the last eighty years, summertime temperatures have risen only 0.5C."
## [147] "Measurements of world temperatures show world temperatures to have stalled with no significant warming since the nineties. IPCC climate models and real world temperatures have diverged and the Earth is cooler than projected."
## [148] "In 2012, the UK Meteorological Office reported that global temperatures have virtually remained steady since 1997 . So, global warming has pretty much stopped for nearly two decades."
## [149] "These tide gauges show that sea levels are rising and falling around Vanuatu over the last 20 years (feast your eyes, there is a 30cm range on that graph below). Where is that CO2 signal? Seas around Vanuatu have been falling since 2008. Getting long term trends out of short data with large natural swings is misleading. Slightly different start or end points will change the rate dramatically. In 2009 the rate of sea level was listed as 6.5mm/yr since 1993. 1 By 2011, the trend was 5.2mm/yr . 2 There is no newer report, but clearly it would be even lower now."
## [150] "A common refrain of climate alarmists is that due to 'basic physics', global warming causes more evaporation and water vapor, and presumably more precipitation and flooding, yet in reality measurements reveal that evaporation has been dropping off worldwide since the 1950s. Furthermore, over 200 peer-reviewed paleoclimate publications find flooding and precipitation are more intense and more variable during cold periods than warm."
## [151] "Now lets look at southern hemisphere sea ice extent. Slope of the red line is 0.02602 million Km^2/year."
## [152] "Mann: Many climate scientists myself included think that a single decade is too brief to accurately measure global warming and that the IPCC was unduly influenced by this one, short-term number."
## [153] "OK heres the bottom line. When Wppelmann et al. factored their measurements of land motion into the estimate of sea-level rise, they determined a global value of 1.31 0.30 mm per year compared to the 1.80.5 mm per year value given by the IPCC for the recent half century. We understand that the IPCC acknowledges a low-end value of 1.3 mm per year in their estimate, but another way to look at this article is that Wppelmann et al. just reduced observed sea-level rise by 27%! Perhaps the IPCC should reconsider whether they still have high confidence that the rate of sea level rise has in fact increased from the 19th to the 20th century."
## [154] "Interestingly, over the period of time that climate alarmists claim has exhibited the most extreme global warming of the past two millennia, and in spite of the fact that they have historically claimed such warming should be most evident in earth's polar regions, and that it should lead to a decrease in polar sea ice extent, just the opposite has occurred in the Southern Ocean about Antarctica.?? What is doubling damaging to their dogma is the fact that Southern Ocean sea ice extent is extremely sensitive to warming , decreasing from a 24-year-average maximum monthly value of 18.23 x 10 6 km 2 in September to a similarly-calculated minimum monthly value of 2.98 x 10 6 km 2 in February, which represents the disappearance of nearly 84% of each year's maximum sea ice cover.?? Given a little more seasonal warmth, it would disappear altogether each February.?? But it doesn't.?? It continues to slowly but surely grow in the mean. Reviewed 11 May 2005"
## [155] "Even when a warming activist confirms the truth of what Plimer says, the Lateline reporter hears it as a denial. And what Plimer actually deduces from the drop since 1998 is also true that this is not consistent with the alarmists predictions or theory that the ever-increasing amounts of carbon dioxide emitted by man is causing ever-increasing warming."
## [156] "I'm dreaming of a white...climate change protest. As you might have seen on the Drudge Report, a demonstration in support of cap-and-trade legislation in Annapolis ended up covered in chilly snow yesterday. Where's your global warming, now?"
## [157] "More on the Seas that are not rising , or warming. Scientists have confirmed that they are still wet, they think."
## [158] "So far this Winter Season (December 1st through January 26th) of 2013-2014, International Falls ranks as the 3rd coldest on record."
## [159] "from 20072013 there was a near-zero trend in observed Arctic September sea-ice extent, in large partdue to a strong uptick of the ice-pack in 2013, which has continued into 2014."
## [160] "A summary of extreme weather events in 2013 is given by the Guardian . In spite of the Guardians portrayal, 2013 was a pretty wimpy year for weather and climate extremes."
## [161] "So, if it is indeed sulfates cooling the warming, given that there is no net change in global temperature, then the northern hemisphere should be cooling since 1998 (the first year in Kaufmanns paper) while the southern warms. Here are the sad facts:"
## [162] "But Dr Peiser does not doubt the climate has changed, but the report has failed to explain why temperatures have not risen since 1997."
## [163] "Some point to a warm 2014 as evidence of climate change, however global temperatures have remained unchanged for the past 18 years."
## [164] "New finding - Earth has been cooling for 2000 years!!!"
## [165] "The latest extreme \"climate change\" evidence from NOAA confirms that severe weather events, such as maximum rainfall and temperature records, are not trending higher during the 21st century as expected - establishes that high levels of CO2 have not been driving U.S. weather extremes"
## [166] "A new book is advising us to prepare for a serious cold spell that is not only going to arrive in twenty to thirty years, but will likely stay around to become the next ice age. This time, though, the prediction is based on well-established climate cycles and the behavior of the Sun that was known as far back as Galileos day."
## [167] "8:30 International tide gauges also show: No acceleration in sea level rise. In fact tide gauges show a deceleration. Puls asked the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research for an answer,but they have yet to reply."
## [168] "Figure 1. Confidence intervals for the estimation of sea level rise using tidal gauge data.This means that 95% of the results fall between the two extremes. For twenty year trends, these are from a sea level rise of three mm/year to a sea level fall of three mm per year. SOURCE: Pacific Country Report, Sea Level & Climate: Their Present State Marshall Islands December 2010"
## [169] "But, we have this graph charting the rise and fall of arctic sea ice for the last 365 days, notice that the arctic sea ice is right back where it started at in February 2007."
## [170] "Parts of the Perth region are subsidingdue to groundwater extraction (Featherstone et al ., 2012). Records from a GPS receiver at Gnangara and nearby artesian boreholes show that the land subsidence rate has slowed from about -6 mm/yr to about -2 mm/yr since the reduction of groundwater extraction from the Yarragadee Aquifer around 2005. Hillarys and Fremantle are only 20 km apart but have quite different rates of sea level rise. Part of the apparent sea level rise is due to gauge sinking. The accuracy of estimates of vertical velocities of the GPS domes is still above 1 mm/year, very close to the average relative sea level velocity."
## [171] "Many of these storms have been way out in the middle of the Atlantic where they likely would not have been detected in 1933 . Likewise, the peak intensity of the storms would have been recorded lower in the past. For example, hurricane Julia was a major hurricane for just a few hours. It is doubtful she would have been recorded as a major hurricane in 1933, and quite likely she would have been missed entirely. Lisa was barely a hurricane and far out in the ocean. Tropical storm Nicole was given a name, even though winds were tropical storm force for just a few minutes."
## [172] "Satellite data shows that glaciers in part of the Karakoram range on the China-Pakistan border are putting on mass, defying (supposedly) the general trend toward glacier shrinkage."
## [173] "In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict."
## [174] "All major global datasets, up to date. The pause is clear enough. The lower two lines are from satellites. Jan 2015 | Graph, Dr David Evans."
## [175] "source: instagram.com Yet another bitterly cold, snowy winter is destroying alarmist global warming claims, proving once again that over-the-top global warming predictions are proving no more scientifically credible than snake oil."
## [176] "Less is more, part one. Warmists say the ice is melting, but Arctic ice increased 23% since 2007."
## [177] "Nightly television pictures of the tragic destruction from tornadoes over the past months might make one wonder if the frequency of tornadoes is increasing, perhaps due to the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. But as one can read at Andrew Revkin??s New York Times blog, dotearth, ???There is no evidence of any trend in the number of potent tornadoes (category F2 and up) over the past 50 years in the United States, even as global temperatures have risen markedly.??"
## [178] "the often quoted increase in weather extremes, this however has not been the case in the Alps. Completely to the contrary: The temperature fluctuations have even decreased over the last decades, summed up climatologist and study author Reinhard Bhm. The results of the study have left the scientists amazed."
## [179] "The outbreak of recent killer weather events including US tornadoes hitting Joplin, Missouri and Tuscaloosa, Alabama has everyone asking whether there is a link between tornadoes and human-induced climate change. In this writer??s experience when US TV or radio weathermen are asked about the cause of recent strong tornadoes, they most always ignore climate change as a potential cause and point to a cyclical ocean circulation event known as La Nia as the cause of recent tornadoes if they comment on causation at all. Rarely is human-induced climate change mentioned as a cause or contributing factor in the recent outbreak of sever tornadoes although questions about causation are becoming more frequent on TV and newspapers in this writer??s experience."
## [180] "The two-week period, last week of November and first week of December is the coldest since CET records began in 1659."
## [181] "Here For the 12th time this meteorological summer (since June 1), daytime highs failed to reach 70 degrees Wednesday. Only one other year in the past half century has hosted so many sub-70-degree days up to this point in a summer season -- 1969, when 14 such days occurred. Wednesday's paltry 65-degree high at O'Hare International Airport (an early-May-level temperature and a reading 18 degrees below normal) was also the city's coolest July 8 high in 118 years -- since a 61-degree high on the date in 1891."
## [182] "He says the most reliable gauges, located at Fremantle and Auckland, show an increase in sea level of approximately 120 millimetres between 1920 and 2000, or 1.5 millimetres per year. But this increase is reducing at a rate of between 0.02 and 0.04 millimetres per year."
## [183] "The total Arctic sea ice area is currently almost 2 million square kilometers higher than one year ago. It is near normal for the end of October, humiliating some would-be \"predictions\" (self-serving and ideologically driven, unsubstantiated lies) of a new record low for 2008."
## [184] "Earth Gains A Record Amount Of Sea Ice In 2013 Earth has gained 19,000 Manhattans of sea ice since this date last year, the largest increase on record"
## [185] "Then theres the issue of sea level change. Global warming and climate change are usually thought to mean that world sea levels will rise, perhaps disastrously. But according to US government scientific experts, in recent times (2010 and 2011, to be precise) phenomena driven by human carbon emissions have actually caused world sea levels to fall. According to a statement issued by the US National Science Foundation: For an 18-month period beginning in 2010, the oceans mysteriously dropped by about seven millimeters. (3)"
## [186] "The whole Northern Hemisphere is experiencing cold snaps at the same time, says Argiris. Whatever happened to global warming?"
## [187] "In the mountainous Karakoram region of Asia the glaciers aren??t melting. If anything, some are expanding, says this article on LiveScience ."
## [188] "December 1st, 2013 through February 28th, 2014 will now be remembered as the coldest meteorological winter on record across much of Upper Michigan."
## [189] "A conclusion and its implication in the summary paper was: because our scientific investigation leads us to the prediction that the Sun is headed into a protracted minimum, the warming forecast by the IPCC might not happen."
## [190] "Well, maybe the second greatest lie ever told, after the anthropogenic GW hoax. From The Telegraph (UK): \"But if there is one scientist who knows more about sea levels than anyone else in the world it is the Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mrner, formerly chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change. And the uncompromising verdict of Dr Mrner, who for 35 years has been using every known scientific method to study sea levels all over the globe, is that all this talk about the sea rising is nothing but a colossal scare story. Despite fluctuations down as well as up, \"the sea is not rising,\" he says. \"It hasn't risen in 50 years.\" And see Sea-level theory cuts no ice"
## [191] "The problem with step changes is that two flat lines with a rising step change will artificially produce a rising linear trend that is meaningless. McKitrick and Voselgang account for the step change and show that significant warming trends in the low to mid troposphere only occur from 1958-2005 if we include the step-change. If the step change is removed, the underlying trend is not significant. In other words, 46 out of the 47 years of atmospheric data do not produce a meaningful rising trend."
## [192] "The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age."
## [193] "The only truth about global warming is that there has been no measured warming over the last 16 years in the global air temperature of the land and the sea surface, the same global air temperature over the last century has been more naturally oscillating than following the carbon dioxide emission, there has been no warming and no change of salinity of the oceans 0 to 2000 metres depth over the first 10 years these parameters have been measured."
## [194] "The March numbers are out for the CET series . At 2.7C this is the coldest March since 1892, which registered the same temperature. Indeed, you have to go back to 1883 to find a colder March."
## [195] "The eight researchers determined that in terms of the frequency, intensity and duration of droughts and pluvial events, \"the 20th century contains some of the driest and wettest annual to decadal-scale events in the last 654 years.\" However - and it's a very big however - they report that \"longer and more severe events were recorded in previous centuries.\""
## [196] "There are two tide gauges in the San Francisco Bay one shows 0.00 mm/year since 1980, and the other shows -0.78 mm/year since 1980."
## [197] "The disaster for alarmists is that the winds have reversed and are pushing the ice towards the Pacific side, which is driving the massive recovery in the amount of Arctic sea ice up 60% from last summer."
## [198] "Thats not all, a quick glance at the graph shows globally averaged temperatures have remained below the January 24, 2006 benchmark (when Gores movie was released at the Sundance Film Festival) except for the first few months of 2007."
## [199] "Figure 6 shows the step in temperature in 1998 at the Larsen Ice Shelf. The trend in cooling after 1998 is 1.8C/decade, the second fastest cooling on the Peninsula. Butler Island is cooling faster, at 1.9C/decade. (Of course 18C/century cooling is meant as sarcasm, and is only a trick that warmists like to use.)"
## [200] "Dr. Madhav L. Khandekar : The earth's climate has NOT warmed in 16 years per UK Met Office! We may not see warming of the climate by more than 0.5C in next 50 to 100 years."
## [201] "So they are saying it. Silly them. Its a simple statement, but its not always true. If global warming tended to increase sea levels by, say, 0.3 mm/yr, but local isostatic rebounding was occurring at 0.4 mm/yr, the sea level wont rise, itll actually fall, because the land is rising."
## [202] "Read here . Global warming alarmists and the climate models have long predicted that the frequency of severe storms would increase. Data worldwide indicates otherwise and a new study by an EU researcher confirms this."
## [203] "Global sea ice area is expanding rapidly, and is nearing a record high for early May. It is currently the second highest on record for the date, and the highest in 32 years."
## [204] "Global temperatures have been plummeting, and are almost back to where they were at the start of the satellite era during the coldest winter ever in 1979. Yet NOAA and the rest of the climate liars are trying to keep the global warming scam alive."
## [205] "All the datasets show some slight warming (+0.11 degrees Celsius per decade since Nov. 16, 1978), some more than others, he told CNSNews.com. But still, the amount of warming is much, much less than what was anticipated from climate models, and thats what Ive been showing and demonstrating in various venues, including Congress."
## [206] "???Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin"
## [207] "But it is worse than it seems. Since 1990, sea level in North Carolina has been rising at less than half amillimetreper year. If the post-1990 trend continued, North Carolina would see less than two inches of sea level rise by the year 2100."
## [208] "90) Politicians and climate activists make claims to rising sea levels but certain members in the IPCC chose an area to measure in Hong Kong that is subsiding. They used the record reading of 2.3 mm per year rise of sea level."
## [209] "2) Any trend in the degree of summer melt in the Arctic is further confounded by the fluctuating concentrations of thin first year ice. Because continents surround the Arctic Ocean, Arctic Sea ice undergoes cycles of accumulating or reducing the amount of thick, multi-year sea ice that resists melting. 2 When the winds pile sea ice against the Arctic shoreline, thicker multi-year ice accumulates. When the winds shift, that thicker ice is blown out past Svalbard into the north Atlantic, and is replaced by thinner, first-year ice that more readily melts each summer. The amount of multi-year ice in the Arctic is controlled by the direction of the winds and the Arctic oscillation. 2 It was not warmer temperatures that removed the thickest Arctic Ice, but sub-freezing winds blowing from the coldest regions in the northern hemisphere. 4,5"
## [210] "The Associated Press: Rising seas threaten Shanghai, other major cities Shanghai, altitude roughly 3 meters (10 feet) above sea level, is among dozens of great world cities including London, Miami, New York, New Orleans, Mumbai, Cairo, Amsterdam and Tokyo threatened by sea levels that now are rising twice as fast as projected just a few years ago , expanding from warmth and meltwater. Estimates of the scale and timing vary, but Stefan Rahmstorf, a respected expert at Germany's Potsdam Institute, expects a 1-meter (3-foot) rise in this century and up to 5 meters (15 feet) over the next 300 years. April '09: Sea Level Graphs from UC and some perspectives Watts Up With That? The fact is sea level are flatlining now since 2006 are may actually start to decline..due to reduced watts/mt from the sun."
## [211] "???In summary,?? to quote Dole et al ., ???the analysis of the observed 1880-2009 time series shows that no statistically significant long-term change is detected in either the mean or variability of western Russia July temperatures, implying that for this region an anthropogenic climate change signal has yet to emerge above the natural background variability.?? Thus, they say their analysis ???points to a primarily natural cause for the Russian heat wave,?? noting that the event ???appears to be mainly due to internal atmospheric dynamical processes that produced and maintained an intense and long-lived blocking event,?? adding that there are no indications that ???blocking would increase in response to increasing greenhouse gases.??"
## [212] "As you can see, despite the warming of the last 115 years shown in the USHCN dataset, while some of the PDSI trends have decreased, almost all of the statistically significant changes in the PDSI are positive (less drought). And few of the changes are statistically significant."
## [213] "Due to the lack of actual extreme weather (record low tornadoes and hurricanes in the US) climate charlatans now describe mild weather as extreme."
## [214] "Record Cold And Snow Destroy Global Warming Claims"
## [215] "the ACE confounds the number of hurricanes with the intensity (ACE effectively includes both). There are several ocean basins where the number of cyclones is actually decreasing, which would lead to a decrease in ACE (while at the same time showing an increase in intensity). See also #1, re problems of just looking at a 20 yr time period."
## [216] "China is experiencing its coldest winter in 28 years, with the average national temperature remaining at 3.8 C since November 2012, which is 1.3 degrees lower than normal for this period, according to sources from the China Meteorological Administration."
## [217] "The report then blamed the higher deaths in heatwaves on global warming (which stopped in 2001, and since when the earth has cooled):"
## [218] "In Siberia today the permafrost is supposed to be gradually melting, so we are told. But if you ask local Russian scientists, this cannot be confirmed ( see video above )."
## [219] "In order to distract from the Greenland cooling, alarmists made up a fake story about the Jakobshavn Glacier falling apart this summer. Satellite imagery shows that there has been almost no change since 2013."
## [220] "The year began with extremely cold winter temperatures and snowfall amounts that broke monthly and seasonal records at many U.S. locations. Seasonal snowfall records fell in several cities, including Washington; Baltimore, Md., Philadelphia; Wilmington, Del.; and Atlantic City, N.J. Several NOAA studies established that this winter pattern was made more likely by the combined states of El Nio and the Arctic Oscillation."
## [221] "???Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin."
## [222] "While calvings from ice shelves in parts of West Antarctica have generated headlines, evidence has emerged that temperatures are cooling in the east of the continent, which is four times the size of West Antarctica."
## [223] "And of course, if the scientist was unable to disprove no warming in 23 years?? well then it??s probable that warming probably either a) wasn??t happening or b) it was slower than 1.1 C/century."
## [224] "This statement puzzled me, since it is well established in the literature that the American West experiencedsevere droughts centuries before the advent of SUVs and coal-fired power plants. So I did a quick search at www.CO2Science.Org , Web site of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, where Drs. Sherwood, Keith, and Craig Idso reviewscores of peer-reviewed science studies each year. Beloware excerpts from a few of their reviews."
## [225] "Previous interglacial periods tended to last 10,000 to 20,000 years, and in fact most did not have temperatures as slow changing as the present one. Since the present interglacial started about 18,000 years age, and reached the plateau about 11,000 years ago, we probably should be more concerned with a possible impending major ice age than a fraction of a degree or so of warming. In fact, the best possible outcome would be that the (relatively modest) contribution from AGW might help delay the onset of a new ice age."
## [226] "The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change hailed by greens as the ultimate arbiter does not agree tropical storms have become more intense or frequent, but says the opposite. Their special report last year said: 'There is low confidence in any observed long-term (40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity (ie intensity, frequency, duration).' Its authoritative Fifth Assessment Report added in September there have been 'no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century'."
## [227] "George, your response to Typhoon Haiyan prompted this memo. Are you aware that tropical cyclones that made landfall in the western North Pacific had declined from 1950 to 2010? See Figure 5, which is from Roger Pielke, Jr.s post Are Typhoon Disasters Getting More Common? Roger was one of the co-authors of the Weinkle et al. (2012) paper Historical Global Tropical Cyclone Landfalls ."
## [228] "Great Lakes ice coverage at an all-time record high"
## [229] "Even that is likely to be too high. The climate-research establishment has finally admitted openly what skeptic scientists have been saying for nearly a decade: Global warming has stopped since shortly before this century began."
## [230] "Goa (India) : \"there is no ongoing sea level rise, sea level has been stable for the last 50 years or so, sea level fell some 20 cm at around 1960.\""
## [231] "The climate models are also coming into agreement that the number of tropical storms and hurricanes will not go up and may perhaps even decrease (by around one-fourth fewer) because of the increased vertical wind shear."
## [232] "In his RMS article , Kevin Trenberth also conveniently overlooked the fact that the discussions about the warming halt are now for a time period of about 16 years, not 10 yearsever since David Roses DailyMail article titled Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released and here is the chart to prove it . In my response to Trenberths article , I updated David Roses graph , noting that surface temperatures in April 2013 were basically the same as they were in June 1997. Well use June 1997 as the start month for the running 17-year trends. The period is now 204-months long. The following graph is similar to the one above, except that its presenting running trends for 204-month periods."
## [233] "What will happen this winter if we keep going on with this trend? Ten degrees below normal with high precipitations? SNOW! A LOT OF SNOW!"
## [234] "Algore said that the sea would rise 20?? and much of the world would be submerged. How inconvenient that sea levels in the South pacific have been, um, stable for over ten years ."
## [235] "10. Overall the Antarctic ice sheet has grown in size for the last 35 years, except in a few selective areas which are related to geologically induced geothermal heating. An overwhelming number of these selective glacial melting areas are associated with the West Antarctic Rift System."
## [236] "The only observed warming over the period is from 1978 to 1998, 20 years only, out of the 55 years."
## [237] "The University of Colorado, at SPPIs request, has updated the sea-level data from the JASON satellite to the end of 2008. Though James Hansen of NASA says sea level will rise 246 feet, sea level has not risen since the beginning of 2006. Sea level rose just 8 inches in the 20th century and has been rising at just 1 ft/century since 1993."
## [238] "In 2001 and 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (and here )estimated that the world would warm at a rate of 0.2 deg C per decade in the future due to greenhouse gas forcing. Since those predictions were made it has become clear that the world has not been warming at that rate. Some scientists retrospectively revised their forecasts saying that the 0.2 deg C figure is an average one. Larger or smaller rates of warming are possible as short-term variations."
## [239] "The NSIDC maps show 7.5% more ice in 2010 than 2007, but their graph shows less than 3% difference."
## [240] "The press release says it is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century . The report fails to acknowledge that global temperatures have been at a standstill for the last 15 years, claiming rather that each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earths surface than any preceding decade since 1850 astatistical sleight of hand."
## [241] "So far, so good. However, the British arm of the climate establishment silently released an encyclical that revealed no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures from the beginning of 1997 until August this year."
## [242] "In the two years since the big flash at Nature , further and better analysis confirms that what has been going on in Antarctica is pretty much what we knew to be happening all alongthat during the last 3-to-4 decade period of rapid build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the temperature has changed little at the continental scale, and instead is characterized by a complex pattern of regional warming and cooling. Such changes do not foreshadow a rapid loss of continental Antarctic ice nor an alarming Antarctic contribution to the rate of current and future sea level rise this century as a result of surface ice melt. In fact, measurements from a different satellite data set that begin in 1979 show that the extent of ice in the southern high latitudes is increasingly significantly ."
## [243] "So, according to my observations, sea levels in Moreton Bay have gone down about 300 mm over the last 67 years."
## [244] "But theres a big disconnect from facts here. In reality, there has been no increase in the strength or frequency of landfall hurricanes in the worlds five main hurricane basins during the past 50-70 years; there has been no increase in the strength or frequency in tropical Atlantic hurricane development during the past 370 years; the U.S. is currently enjoying the longest period ever recorded without intense Category 3-5 hurricane landfall; there has been no trend since 1950 evidencing any increased frequency of strong (F3-F-5) U.S. tornadoes; there has been no increase in U.S. flood magnitudes over the past 85 years; and long-term sea level rise is not accelerating."
## [245] "But the big news, Watson, is missing from our papers expanding sea-ice in Antarctica . Is this why southern Australia has had its chilliest July in almost two decades and first snow in Hobart since 1986?"
## [246] "Since the experts made this warning, Antarctica sea ice area has steadily increased to record highs."
## [247] "In February of 1972 earth-orbiting artificial satellites revealed the existence of a greatlyincreased area of the snow and ice cover of the north polar cap as compared to all previous years of space age observations. Some scientists believe that this may have presaged the onset of the dramatic climate anomalies of 1972 that brought far-reaching adversities to the worlds peoples. Moreover, there is mounting evidence that the bad climate of 1972 may be the forerunner of a long series of less favorable agricultural crop years that lie aheadfor most world societies. Thus widespread food shortages threaten just at the same time that world populations are growing to new highs. Indeed, less favorable climate may be the new global norm. The Earth may have entered a new little ice age"
## [248] "Alarmists are reluctant to admit that the global surface temperature has not increased for 16 years, despite CO2 emissions rising far more than predicted. They wave this inconvenient truth away with the non-sequitur that this decade is the hottest since records began, so the world is still warming. If you climb a hill and reach a flat plateau you are higher than before - but the plateau is flat, not rising. When cornered, global warming alarmists assert that the current pause is simply the result of unspecified 'natural variations'. That implies that the pronounced warming over the previous 25 years may have been amplified by 'natural variations' in the other direction. In which case, the likely temperature rise for a given increase in CO2 may be less than previously estimated or required to produce the threatened doom."
## [249] "The slowdown in rising temperatures over the past 15 years goes from being unexplained to overexplained."
## [250] "The annual trend of the departures as shown below indicates a flat or slightly cooling trend, and not global warming at all. Yes they fluctuate but that does not mean the trend is warming."
## [251] "12 of the hottest years in recorded history came in the last 15 years a period when there has been no trend global warming."
## [252] "Yes, it would be premature to draw a conclusion (that global warming is not happening) based on current data (that global temps are lower today than in 1998). That??s what we foolish mortals do. Government scientists, and the functionaries and bureaucrats they serve, however, know better."
## [253] "Arctic Sea Ice Extent Unchanged For Several Days"
## [254] "One of the interesting aspects of the current temperature standstill is that it persists despite several El Ninos and La Ninas .Since 2006 the influence of these events has been more pronounced in satellite data; El Ninos in 2007 and 2009-10, La Ninas in 2008, 20102012. These events have increased the noise of the global temperature data in recent years."
## [255] "2) Yeah, it wasnt so much 1998 and all that that I was concerned about, used to dealing with that, but the possibility that we might be going through a longer 10 year period of relatively stable temperatures beyond what you might expect from La Nina etc. Speculation, but if I see this as a possibility then others might also. Anyway, Ill maybe cut the last few points off the filtered curve before I give the talk again as thats trending down as a result of the end effects and the recent cold-ish years. http://bit.ly/ajuqdN"
## [256] "The article mentions increased surface temperatures 5-7 degrees but doesnt mention the cold snap resulting in darn near freezing the Great Lakes over. It also mentions increases in swimmers itch, from duck feces. Is that a result of an increasing duck and goose population or climate change?"
## [257] "A recent paper published in the Hydrological Sciences Journal examines precipitation in southern China from 1956-2000 and finds precipitation has becomeboth less extreme and less variable. Contrary to claims of climate alarmists, the paper adds to many others demonstrating that global warming decreases extreme weather including extreme precipitation, floods, droughts, and cyclone activity."
## [258] "Global warming which has been the subject of so many discussions in recent years, may give way to global cooling. According to scientists from the Pulkovo Observatory in St.Petersburg, solar activity is waning, so the average yearly temperature will begin to decline as well. Scientists from Britain and the US chime in saying that forecasts for global cooling are far from groundless. Some experts warn that a change in the climate may affect the ambitious projects for the exploration of the Arctic that have been launched by many countries."
## [259] "The total sea ice cover around Antarctica shows no significant change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but counteracting regional changes."
## [260] "For people who want more action on global warming, an inconvenient truth has arisen over the last decade: Annual average temperatures stayed relatively flat globally and dropped in the United States and Oregon despite mankinds growing release of greenhouse gases."
## [261] "And this from WattsUpWithThat.com: The cold this December and January has been noteworthy and newsworthy. We just posted that December 2009 was the Second Snowiest on Record in the Northern Hemisphere. Beijing was hit by its heaviest snowfall in 60 years, and Korea had the largest snowfall ever recorded since record keeping began in 1937. Plus all of Britain was recently covered by snow. The cold is setting records too. Oranges are freezing and millions of tropical fish are dying in Florida, there are Record low temperatures in Cuba and thousands of new low temperature records being set in the USA as well as Europe."
## [262] "All the models assume that any temperature rise will be least at the poles and greatest at the tropics because the water vapour feedback is lower at the poles..They do not mention Antarctica where the ice is currently increasing."
## [263] "While they have been higher than before the past 15 years, they have not increased in line with fossil fuel emissions, just as they failed to do over the 1948-77 period."
## [264] "Theres at least one big potential problem with that theory. Although atmospheric CO2 levels have risen, global temperatures have been flat for going on the past 17 years."
## [265] "In fact, the spike in temperatures caused by the Great el Nio of 1998 is almost entirely offset in the linear-trend calculation by two factors: the not dissimilar spike of the 2010 el Nio, and the sheer length of the Great Pause itself."
## [266] "What if the Global Warming ?Pause? was ?Fast Forward? Instead?"
## [267] "Global Warming and Tropical Cyclones of the Western North Pacific (5 Apr 2011) In spite of a remarkable warming, the authors of this study determined that the frequency of TC against the background of global warming has decreased with time ... Read More"
## [268] "In 1974, the consensus agreed that global cooling was the new normal, and thatmuchmoney was needed to study it. 97% of scientists understood that global cooling causedextremeweather."
## [269] "A paper published today in Nature finds \"Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 5501,500 years\" and \"we show, on the basis of a new tropical cyclone activity index (CAI), that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 550 to 1,500 years.\" \"Other studies project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones towards the end of the twenty-first century in the southwest Pacific, southern Indian and Australian regions. Our results, although based on a limited record, suggest that this may be occurring much earlier than expected.\""
## [270] "This breakpoint may be related to loss of seasonal measurements in Antarctica, note that in this Cryosphere Today graph, most of the ice extent anomalies post 2005 are positive."
## [271] "After a period of rapid temperature increases during the 1980s and 1990s there has been a significant slow-down since the turn of the century, leading some sceptics to claim that global warming has stopped."
## [272] "Last summer's record-smashing drought in the US heartland was driven far more by natural variability in weather patterns than by global warming, according to a new analysis by a team of federal and university researchers."
## [273] "Earlier this year, Chicago represented the global climate. Record cold this weekend has caused Chicago to disappear from the global climate map."
## [274] "Actually, GISS shows little or no winter warming over the past sixty years. Certainly nothing close to 11F."
## [275] "Yet another global warming alert, when global temperatures are heading down and records for cold are being broken left, right and center. And how long will it be before we read that it wasnt actually global warming, but something else? Its odd, but stories like that never seem to get published I wonder why?"
## [276] "From August 2001 to August 2014, the warming trend on the mean of the 5 global-temperature datasets is nil. No warming for 13 years 1 month."
## [277] "In his RMS article , Kevin Trenberth also conveniently overlooked the fact that the discussions about the warming halt are now for a time period of about 16 years, not 10 yearsever since David Roses DailyMail article titled Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released and here is the chart to prove it . In my response to Trenberths article , I updated David Roses graph , noting that surface temperatures in April 2013 were basically the same as they were in June 1997. Well use June 1997 as the start month for the running 16-year+ trends. The period is now 203-months long. The following graph is similar to the one above, except that its presenting running trends for 203-month periods."
## [278] "Updated NASA Data: Global Warming Not Causing Any Polar Ice Retreat"
## [279] "With eastern Arctic ice above normal, total ice extent willbe very close tothe 1981-2010 mean in a few weeks. Might even go above themean. Look for a spectacularramp up of Arctic lies this autumn from government funded experts."
## [280] "Admittedly, CEI's ad did not mention that Davis's ROC encompasses about 70% of the total Antarctic ice sheet area, which he refers to as the \"grounded ice-sheet interior.\" His ROC does not include interior regions that are within 8.4 degrees latitude of the pole (the satellites can't see there). However, Davis suspects that these near-polar regions are also gaining mass and thus suggests that his calculation of net gain is a \"conservative estimate.\" He notes that, \"These results are consistent with ice-core evidence, though sparse, for increasing accumulation in East Antarctica during the decades preceding our observational time period.\""
## [281] "The empirical evidence is so overwhelming that even the vast majority of alarmist climate scientists (over 97%) agree that the predicted accelerating global warming has been non-existent over the last 15 years."
## [282] "In the lower 48 states there have been about ten extreme megafires, which I define as burning more than 1 million acres. Eight of these occurred during cooler than average decades. These data suggest that extremely large megafires were 4-times more common before 1940 (back when carbon dioxide concentrations were lower than 310 ppmv). What these graphs suggest is that we cannot reasonably say that anthropogenic global warming causes extremely large wildfires."
## [283] "1) admit that mean global temperatures have not risen since 1997 and that the warming trend has stalled"
## [284] "7) It is claimed that the current ice loss in the Antarctic is enough to raise global sea levels by 0.45 millimetres each year, but much of this rise has already been occurring throughout the last century."
## [285] "John opened his discussion with a statement that there has been a (reported) rising global temperature trend since 1975, while in fact broad agreement exists that there has been no warming for at least a decade. Phil Jones has stated that global temperatures have been flat for 17 years."
## [286] "while Antarctic Sea Ice Extent has remained above the ???normal?? range for much of the last two months:"
## [287] "The world stopped getting warmer almost 16 years ago, according to new data released last week."
## [288] "As these figures demonstrate, lower tropospheric temperatures (the part of the atmosphere where weather is generated) have reverted to the levels of 11 years ago after a period of rapid cooling over the last year and a half. In addition to RSS, the other three measures of world temperatures reveal the same cooling pattern: http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:1997/to:2009/offset:-0.146/plot/gistemp/from:1997/to:2009/offset:-0.238/plot/uah/from:1997/to:2009/plot/rss/from:1997/to:2009 . As Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. has previously discussed, the oceans (the more important indicator of global temperature change) have not been warming in recent years and have actually cooled slightly. The ???warming?? conditions explict in the EDF claim and implicit in the NOAA release do not exist."
## [289] "But, it is often unreported that we??ve had sea level rise all through American history. Of all the talk about sea level rise, it is interesting to point out that at least in Boston, man has easily outraced the sea. The worry about sea level is real, but the ability of man to adapt is clearly illustrated in the comparative maps. See here: The rubbish is coming! One if by land, two if bysea"
## [290] "So, both current temperatures and 10-Year averages are actually slightly lower than 2002-11. With just three years to go, it seems unlikely that the 2007-16 will alter this position drastically."
## [291] "There have only been three recorded hurricanes during May in the Atlantic Basin. They occurred in 1908, 1951 and 1970, including this hurricane which struck the US during the last week of May, 1908"
## [292] "And how was last year? Also in 2012 tornadoes were relatively rare, as no year saw fewer tornadoes than 2012 since tornado recording began in 1954 . 2012 was the absolute low-point of the officially recorded tornado development of the past 60 years. The lilac-colored curve in Figure 2 represents the year 2012, which is not that far off from the current 2013 year (black)."
## [293] "There appear to have been more category four and category five storms post-1928 as compared to pre-1928 (12 vs. 9). But since that difference depends on measurements of maximum hurricane wind speeds, it could easily be questioned given dramatic technological improvements in modern hurricane data collection."
## [294] "The most recent glaciation covered much of the northern hemisphere with miles-thick ice and wiped out the Neanderthalers; its sudden end about 12,000 years ago led into the present warm interglacial period, which we call the Holocene. According to the Milankovitch astronomical calculations, the next glaciation is just around the corner ??? or at least a millennium or so away."
## [295] "A new paper published in Climate of the Past reconstructs the climate of southeast Tibet over 224 years from 1781-2005 and finds, \" The climate appears drier and more stable in the 20th century than previously.\" The paper contradicts claims of climate alarmists that global warming causes an increase of extreme weather or extreme precipitation. In addition, the paper finds cloud cover decreased during the 20th century in comparison to the 19th century, which could amplify solar effects on temperature. According to the authors, \" The occurrence ofyears of extreme low or high cloud index appears to havestrongly decreased since the 1920s, suggesting a relativelystable summer moisture condition in southeast Tibet in spiteof the increasing impact of human activities on climate.\""
## [296] "The global average anomalyis currently well above average, but unless this positive anomaly continues for the coming months, the absence of a clearlong term trend since1998 remains (although the interannual variations are remarkably large)."
## [297] "About eight percent of the contiguous U.S. was covered by snow at end of April, according to an analysis by the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.Snow coverage during the month peaked at 30.2 percent on April 6, after a late-season winter storm hit the Midwest and Plains."
## [298] "Now that scientists have confirmed that global warming has been entirely missing since 1998, possibly the the lamestream press will finally gain the courage to finally report actual weather and climate facts, such as reporting the global cooling trend since 2002. This would be a huge improvement versus their modern method of doing climate science by press release."
## [299] "#4. The simple 5-year moving average curve during the very recent past indicates a declining period for 30-year changes, possibly signalling an extended cooling phase is upon us."
## [300] "Now on Arctic sea ice, allow me to use the same NOAA scientific method and declare that the Arctic has experienced the slowest July ice melt ever! (Well, at least sofar)."
## [301] "Credit: Ian Howat. It has come to an end, Murray said during a session at the meeting. \"There seems to have been a synchronous switch-off \" of the speed-up, she said. Based on the shape and appearance of the 14 largest outlet glaciers in southeast Greenland, outlet glacier flows have returned to the levels of 2000 nearly everywhere. There's a pattern of speeding up to maximum velocity and then slowing down since 2005,\" Murray reported. It's amazing; they sped up and slowed down together. They're not in runaway acceleration."
## [302] "This comes almost exactly 40 years after the government wrote a state of the climate report saying that global cooling was going to cause floods, famines, extreme weather, and wouldkill us all."
## [303] "We have often discussed the observed patterns of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and what may lie behind them, and we generally have concluded, based upon both our analysis of the data, along with a thorough review of the scientific literature, that identifying a statistically significant and robust human signal in the observed history of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, whether over the past 100+ years, or in recent decades, is untenable."
## [304] "Historical records indicate that the first recorded El Nio occurred in 1525 observed by Spanish explorers. Other studies suggest strong ancient El Nios ended Peruvian civilizations. The main point here is that strong El Nios are natural, and not increasing in relationship to global warming as contended by many climate scientists."
## [305] "He pointed to the graph. I was indeed wrong. Karls graph showed no trend in landfalling hurricanes not only for 100 years but for 150 years. His face fell, then brightened again: Ah, he said, but just look at how tropical storms have increased in the past 30 years!"
## [306] "Gore: Climate change is increasing the intensity of hurricanes. Truth: Hurricane numbers and intensity are on par with historic records and trends. Katrina was a large Category 3 hurricane when it hit a poorly prepared New Orleans."
## [307] "Is a mini ICE AGE on the way? Scientists warn the sun will ???go to sleep?? in 2030 and could cause temperatures to plummet"
## [308] "You see, the Earth hasn't warmed in the past 16 or 17 years, even though the production of carbon dioxide has continued apace."
## [309] "The US is currently in the midst of the longest streak ever recorded without an intense hurricane landfall"
## [310] "The two Polish researchers report that the frequency of deep cyclones in Poland, both overall and in each of a number of specific track groups, \"failed to change significantly\" over the 110-year period of their study (see the figure below). In the most important of these groups, which was composed of \"more than half of all deep cyclones,\" they found that they \"developed over the Atlantic and travelled over or near Iceland via the Baltic Sea and/or the Scandinavian Peninsula,\" and that \"towards the end of the study period, it was observed that deep cyclones following these tracks shortened their journeys considerably,\" due to the fact that \"as they moved over the Scandinavian Peninsula or the Baltic Sea, they 'suddenly' weakened and filled up.\""
## [311] "For most months and for the entire growing season, the first half of the century was much drier that the second half of the century (Figure 3). Bonsal et al. note that The time series of total growing season precipitation indicates 3 distinct periods: above normal precipitation from 190516, anomalously low amounts during 191749, and generally higher precipitation from 195096. We are not sure why the ended their study in 1996, and we have not seen the drought of today in central Canada put into historical perspective. But if we simply look at the data presented by these scientists, there is no trend whatsoever to reduced precipitation as the greenhouse gas concentration increased through the 20th century indeed there is evidence that precipitation was enhanced through the century."
## [312] "To be sure, 2011 saw some very extreme events in the United States. But was it the \"most extreme year for weather\" since the 19th century? Not by a long shot, whether the metric is dollar damage or loss of life."
## [313] "As has been recently reported by this writer on this blogand at Anthony Watts on WUWT, the summers in both the contiguous US and Canada have not warmed but have actually cooled in US and the trend is quite flat in Canada over the last 10 years. Therefore warmer summers cannot be causing more negative AO and colder winters."
## [314] "The Maunder Minimum was a period of intensely cold winters during the 1600?s. If Lockwood and his colleagues are right this is yet another indicator that points towards global cooling. Although the effects of the jet stream are predominantly felt in Europe the overall temperature drops caused by a cessation of activity on the Sun will be felt across the Northern Hemisphere."
## [315] "Scientists announced this week that rapidly melting Arctic sea ice has beached tens of thousands of Walruses in Alaska. Apparently no one told them that the ice is closer to Alaska this year than it was in 1998."
## [316] "Figure 1 presents the temperature deviation data, and it can be seen that solely northwestern Alaska was above normal, while all the rest of Alaska was too cold when compared to the normal. It is interesting to note that a new minimum in the sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean was observed in September. The lack of sea ice affected Barrows temperatures, and in October the temperature deviation from the 30 year normal was a very substantial +10.3F. The greatest negative deviations were found in the Bering Sea area, which is understandable after noting that the sea ice extent for the Bering Sea recorded a new maximum in April for the time period since microwave satellite measurements became available. (Microwave instruments provide for observations of the sea ice though clouds and darkness.) This is, of course, in direct opposition to the above noted sea ice minimum observed in the Arctic Ocean."
## [317] "How does this square with temperature records from 2005-2007, by some measurements among the warmest years on record? When added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time."
## [318] "Greenlands surface has gained more than half a trillion tons of ice, it is still snowing, and less than eight possible weeks left to the melt season."
## [319] "The latest satellite information from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (passed on by the Watts Up With That blog) shows that, after the third slowest melt of April Arctic ice in 30 years, the worlds polar sea ice is in fact slightly above its average extent for early May since satellite records began in 1979."
## [320] "With increased national Doppler radar coverage , increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the true variability and trend in tornado frequency in the U.S., the total number of strong to violent tornadoes (EF3 to EF5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These are the tornadoes that would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports. The bar chart below indicates there has been little trend in the frequency of the strongest tornadoes over the past 55 years."
## [321] "Scatterplot graph of U.S. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) -vs- NASA GISS temperature data. If there was a correlation between temperature and droughts in the USA, the dots would align along a line from upper left to lower right (or mirrored LL to UR, depending on the correlation). But, as the plot shows, there is no correlation between drought & temperature of any kind."
## [322] "The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures."
## [323] "The earth hasn??t warmed at the same pace during the 20 th century. The noticeable temperature increases during some periods interspersed with fairly stable or decreasing levels during others have been explained as a combination of secular global warming (likely manmade) and natural climate variability. We are currently, in the early 21 st century, experiencing a hiatus period, during which surface temperatures have not risen at the same rate as higher atmospheric radiative forcing."
## [324] "Alexander noted that weather events show no long-term trend whatever over more than a century of reliable data. Weather extremes have occurred from time immemorial, long before industrialization boosted the CO2 level in the atmosphere."
## [325] "Far from being the final word on climate change, last week?s United Nations report suggesting near certainty that human activity is causing a rise in Earth?s temperatures is actually further proof that the conventional wisdom is dead wrong and the Earth is cooling right on schedule, according to one of the leading scientists who is skeptical of the climate-change premise."
## [326] "So for twelve years there has been a rise 0.1 0 C with a 140% error, in other words, no significant measureable temperature rise. You can play with the data. If you omit 1998 then you can double the change. But 1998 was an El Nino year followed in 1999 by a La Nina. If we omit both years then the results are unchanged."
## [327] "Do new data provide evidence for ice sheet slow death or ice sheet slow growth? An Ohio State University researcher reports that the most recent data show that thinning rates are slowing at several sites just east of the ice sheet divide, and that the elevation at the divide continues to increase?? Read More"
## [328] "Over the last 30 years, the warming rate has been remarkably constantabout 0.17 degrees Celsius per decade. And for 25 years before that, the world was actually cooling!"
## [329] "Solar activity is going into a decline as well. We dont yet know if this decline will be to a Dalton Minimum-like level or a Maunder Minimum level. The model projection into the future does not contain ENSO or volcanic data as that data cannot be predicted. But it will get cooler for the next thirty years. The AMO will turn positive some time in mid-century, and solar output may not decline as much as indicated, so another full-blown ice age is not beginning, but a Little Ice Age may be starting. See here for further projections into the future based on the deVries 230-year cycle and the 1000-year Suess cycle."
## [330] "The sun is causing the cooling thats going on. The sun reached a peak of activity around 2000 and has been declining ever since, said Ball, who noted that the cooling trend will continue for years to come."
## [331] "The EPA statement is grossly misleading. There has been no warming in Alaska since 1978, and a sharp decrease in temperatures over the last five years."
## [332] "Dr. Ryan Maue??s ACE plot also shows a low year. He adds: ???The agency should have stopped when they were ahead and not mentioned global warming during a historically quiet Typhoon season. Their explanation must have been lost in the translation because almost everyone has noticed that there has been a rapidly developing and intense La Nina during the summer and fall of 2010. Put very simply, the previous historically quiet Typhoon seasons in the Western Pacific basin are usually associated with La Nina. Global ACE is still near 33-year lows , and shows no signs of picking up anytime soon.??"
## [333] "A trend analysis of the RSS satellite dataset would reveal a modest global cooling since January 2000, while at the same time, vast amounts of human CO2 emissions were injected into the atmosphere having zero warming impact - in addition, reviewing the empirical measurements since the beginning of the satellite era indicates that huge record-setting CO2 emissions have not caused the IPCC's predicted \"accelerating,\" and \"dangerous\" global warming, instead temps decelerated"
## [334] "At his latest July 18 Saturday Summary here , Joe Bastardi presented the latest NCEP global temperature chart for the past 10 years, and here more confirmation that the globe has cooled off a bit."
## [335] "On December 4, 2011 it will have been 2,232 days since Hurricane Wilma made landfall along the Gulf coast as a category 3 storm back in 2005. That number of days will break the existing record of days between major US hurricane landfalls, which previously was between 8 Sept 1900 (the great Galveston Hurricane) and 19 Oct 1906. Since there won??t be any intense hurricanes before next summer, the record will be shattered, with the days between intense hurricane landfalls likely to exceed 2,500 days."
## [336] "It's a cooling trend equaling 1.3F per century. And not a single government sponsored climate expert, nor wildly expensive climate model, predicted such."
## [337] "Warmists didn't get everything wrong: CO 2 levels are indeed greater than they were just a few decades ago, thanks to China's industrialization. Yet global temperatures have not increased in 17 years; actually, they are trending down, undercutting the warmists' key argument. The seeming contradiction can be explained by, well, looking up."
## [338] "1. Per the empirical satellite data, human CO2 emissions are not causing an accelerating sea level rise that is swamping Pacific Ocean islands, and thus causing a vast migration of climate change refugees (another hysterical IPCC prediction spread by climate liars)."
## [339] "According to a new paper based upon obedient computer models, global warming could result in an increase in the frequency of wildfires. However, data from both the US and Canada show that the number of wildfires has declined over the past 40-50 years of global warming, and that the number of wildfires was higher during the global cooling scare of the 1970's."
## [340] "The three researchers say their results showed there was \"no change in long-term monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall and frequency of rain days\" and that \"there is no significant trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall totals.\" This being the case, they also say \"it can be concluded that there is no climate change observed over Combatore.\""
## [341] "Now with global temperatures in an extended hiatus, the IPCC has reversed course and told us that such short-term periods are actually irrelevant to its arguments:"
## [342] "So the data may very well be real. Notice also that the trend in DMI plots for the last few years since 2000 has been ever so slightly below the mean. Since the sea ice melt may be driven more by wind and currents, what effect it may have on the 2009 sea ice melt season remains to be seen. I think it would be safe to say though, that NSIDC??s director, Mark Serreze won??t be issuing an ???ice free north pole?? soundbite this year."
## [343] "7 March 2013 The Little Ice Age should be the story of the century, yet its only being announced quietly by climate scientists and solar physicists. Not a word is being mentioned by the mainstream media, who had a hand in selling the Global Warming propaganda that has become irrelevant as we slide into colder climate."
## [344] "The slowdown is a bit of a mystery to climate scientists. True, the basic theory that predicts a warming of the planet in response to human emissions does not suggest that warming should be smooth and continuous. To the contrary, in a climate system still dominated by natural variability , there is every reason to think the warming will proceed in fits and starts."
## [345] "3. The disappearing ice, we were told, was increasing the propensity of the Arctic to absorb 85% of the incoming solar radiation, rather than reflecting 85% of it harmlessly to space. However, Bob somehow failed to mention that at the summer sea-ice minimum in 2008 the extent of the ice was 12% up on 2007, and in 2009 it was another 12% up. This good news, indicating that ever more of the Sun??s rays are being reflected up into outer space, wassomehow not shared with the audience."
## [346] "Normally by this date, about 20% of the Greenland ice sheet is melting. This year only about 5%, which is the slowest on record."
## [347] "Although there have been year-to-year and decadal-scale oscillations in the annual number of freezing rain-days in the United States, recent numbers are about the same as the 50-year average.?? Thus, it would appear that there is nothing extreme or unusual about the current level of occurrence of this particular weather phenomenon, which finding represents just one more example of the superiority of our contention that real-world data fail to support climate-alarmist predictions of warming-induced increases in extreme weather events. Reviewed 28 September 2005"
## [348] "Sydneys hottest Christmas Day on record was in 1868 when the city sweltered to 39 degrees celsius."
## [349] "What about Russian astrophysicist Habibullo Abdussamatovs contention that were headed into a little ice age? No mention of him."
## [350] "Since Nov. 18, the normal high temperature has been hovering around 15 degrees colder than the historical normal temperature of 55 degrees. The normal low has been about 10 degrees lower than the normal temperature of 36 de grees. The national weather forecasters are predicting this same weather pattern going into the beginning of December."
## [351] "The Sahel is just such a transitional region between the rainforest on the coast of west Africa and the true desert of the Sahara. Alarmist stories appeared about the expanding Sahara desert associated with the cyclical Sahelian drought that visited the region between 1968 and 1974. Famine accompanied the drought and overgrazing was blamed. It, and another drought in 1984-85, launched the environmental career of Bob Geldof."
## [352] "This isn't proof that the world is entering a global cooling cycle. But the absence of sunspots is the most prolonged in a century, and scientists say the reduced solar activity is reminiscent of the Maunder Minimum, between 1645 and 1715, when the Northern Hemisphere suffered through the coldest weather, worst storms and shortest growing seasons of the Little Ice Age."
## [353] "The longest running tide gauge in the Marshall Islands is on Wake Island. It shows a trend of 1.91mm/year since 1950; in other words, about 5 inches since the war."
## [354] "But if the temperature \"trend\" might be toward cooling, that at least means that there was no statistically significant global warming during the years from 2002-2010, does it not? And the planet may well be coolingNOAA's U.S. data certainly points that way. Jones argues the timeline isn't long enough to establish a cooling trend, but 12 years of no warming certainly looks like a trend. It's also 12 years, or more, during which the public has been relentlesslyand, it appears, falselybombarded with the message that the planet is suffering from out-of-control warming."
## [355] "An apples to apples comparison, shows that the summer of 1936 had five times as many record maximums as the summer of 2012."
## [356] "On the same day the President was lying about warming, eight inches of snow fell in Rize, Turkey. It has fallen as well in South Africa, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Russia while closer to home snow fell on several cities in Idaho with cold freezes extending into Oregon. In June!"
## [357] "Hubbard Glacier has been advancing into Disenchantment Bay for more than 100 years, according to NASA??s Earth Observatory. In addition to its forward movement, the glacier has been thickening as well."
## [358] "GWPF summary of the full DM report: Myth Of Arctic Meltdown: Satellite Images Show Ice Cap Thicker And Growing Back ."
## [359] "Extreme Heat: The number of 100 degree days may ???turn out to be the lowest in about 100 years of records??"
## [360] "Climate fraudsters keep telling the press that Greenland is melting down. With satellite technology, you can see that they are lying. There is a strip about 60 miles wide on the northern and western edges of the ice sheet where significant melting is occurring. The rest of the ice sheet shows very little signs of melt."
## [361] "The ice is spreading out and the extent is increasing, exactly as it did in years past."
## [362] "It is not just the winter, either. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data show the United States has been cooling for the past decade . Nor is it just the United States defying alarmist predictions. Global temperature data show no global warming since the late 1990s and very little global warming for the past 45 years."
## [363] "To reach the multimeter levels projected for 2100 by RV requires large positive accelerations that are one to two orders of magnitude greater than those yet observed in sea-level data."
## [364] "Alex Jones Prison Planet.com Dearth Of Sunspot Activity To Herald New Ice Age? A top observatory that has been measuring sun cycles for over 200 years predicts that global temperatures will drop by two degrees over the next two decades as solar activity grinds to a halt and the planet drastically cools down, potentially heralding the onset of a new ice age. While the mass media, Al Gore and politicized bodies like the IPCC scaremonger about the perils of global warming and demand the poor and middle class pay CO2 taxes, both hard scientific data and circumstantial evidence points to a clear cooling trend."
## [365] "The four researchers?? reconstructed record of intense hurricanes revealed that the frequency of these ???high-magnitude?? events ???peaked near 6 storms per century between 2800 and 2300 years ago.?? Thereafter, it suggests that they were ???relatively rare?? with ???about 0-3 storms per century occurring between 1900 and 1600 years ago,?? after which they state that these super-storms exhibited a marked decline , which ???began around 600 years ago?? and has persisted through the present with ???below average frequency over the last 150 years when compared to the preceding five millennia.??"
## [366] "If you've been following the global warming issue via this Report, one thing you can't have missed is that the satellite data in our monthly Earth Track segment show no warming since measurements began in 1979. Yet we hear that this year, last year, or next year is, was, or will be the hottest ever measured by ground-based thermometers.Here we look at a third source of temperature informationweather balloons. Launched simultaneously around the planet twice a day, they transmit pressure, temperature, and humidity conditions. The data they collect go into the dependable daily weather forecast. These data also tell us a lot about the accuracy of the long-range forecast of greenhouse warming."
## [367] "The BEST report said: Numerically, our best estimate for the global temperature of 2014 puts it slightly above (by 0.01C) that of the next warmest year (2010) but by much less than the margin of uncertainty. (italics added) Therefore it is impossible to conclude from our analysis which of 2014, 2010, or 2005 was actually the warmest year. the Earths average temperature for the past decade has changed very little."
## [368] "Glacial ice packs advance and recede according to precipitation and havent lost any ice due to warming anywhere on the globe. We have been told for years of the sea rising and flooding shallow areas of the globe."
## [369] "Scientistsalso say that global warming causes record sea ice around Antarctica"
## [370] "Until the temperatures begin to or the IPCC revises its projections, weather watchers will continue to point out that it is difficult to reconcile trends of -1.5C/century with projections of 2C/century projected to apply right now ."
## [371] "Empirical evidence does not lie - RSS global satellite temperatures confirm hiatus of global warming, while the general public and mainstream press are now recognizing the AWOL truth that skeptics long ago identified...global temperatures are trending towards cooling, not accelerating higher"
## [372] "The graph below shows how they lowered past sea level, and raised recent sea level to create the EU mandated scary appearance of sea level rising."
## [373] "A global map of surface air temperature anomalies in July 2011 vs. the mean of 1998-2006 shows at least 75% of regions were cooler or exhibited no change from the baseline. While the US July heat wave received extensive press attention and claims of links to greenhouse gases, a cooling anomaly of equal and opposite magnitude occurred in the western US and Canada, but received no press attention. Atmospheric CO2 is well-distributed throughout the atmosphere and could not account for the large regional differences."
## [374] "Mr Watson, the NSW Department of Environment and Climate Change??s coastal unit team leader, analysed data taken over 100 years by tidal gauges at Fremantle, Auckland, Fort Denison in Sydney and Newcastle, and found a weak deceleration of sea-level rises between 1940 and 2000."
## [375] "The sin of course is modern human activity in prosperous nations. You know, the kind of sinful activity that has lifted so many out of poverty, protected them from never-ending unusual weather events, and dramatically contributed to healthy living."
## [376] "The UAH graph provides a complete answer to the Chameides attempt to suggest that skeptics are confusing short-term and longer-term temperature changes. The year 2008 will turn out to have been no warmer than 1980 28 years ago. This is not a short-run change: the cooling trend set in as far back as late 2001, seven full years ago, and there has been no net warming since 1995 on any measure. Next, Chameides attempts to suggest that the recent cooling is caused by solar activity. He could well be right however, if so, by the same token the warming that stopped in 1998 could also have been caused by solar activity there was, after all, a solar Grand Maximum in the last 70 years of the 20th century, during which the sun was more active and for longer than at almost any previous similar period in the whole of the past 11,400 years."
## [377] "A host of data shows all catastrophic events allegedly caused by CAGW occurred in the past when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were lower and constant.For many weather events, rates of occurrences recently declined."
## [378] "Following the records set last September, Antarctic Sea Ice Extent continues to run well above normal. The average for January was similar to last year, and continues the increasing trend since 1979."
## [379] "In fact, this year was cooler than years such as 1762, 1779 and 1826, and more than a degree colder than 1783."
## [380] "Sea level was stable from at least BC 100 until AD 950. Sea level then increased for 400 y at a rate of 0.6 mm/y, followed by a further period of stable, or slightly falling, sea level that persisted until the late 19th century. Since then, sea level has risen at an average rate of 2.1 mm/y, representing the steepest century-scale increase of the past two millennia. This rate was initiated between AD 1865 and 1892."
## [381] "In 22 days, Antarctic sea icea area will have been above normal for 365 days in a row."
## [382] "Since January 2005, the data from which the IPCCs latest Assessment Report starts its backcast predictions, there has been no global warming at all. Yet compared with little more than nine years ago the IPCC predicts that the weather should now be a sixth of a Celsius degree warmer than it is (Fig. 1)."
## [383] "Also, as Peltier (2009) points out, the GRACE gravitational-anomaly record indicates that sea level has actually fallen in recent years. The raw data from the Envisat satellite from 2004-2012 show sea level rising at a rate equivalent to an unalarming 3.2 cm/century:"
## [384] "An American team led by Randy Dole of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) suggested that the heatwave was mostly natural in origin. They based that on the fact that there was no basis for anticipating the heatwave given the conditions which applied at that time in Russia, said Myles Allen, a climate scientist at Oxford University. Heatwaves of that nature had happened in the past on a 100-year timescale and there wasnt an obvious significant trend in temperatures in that region or in the statistics of hot temperatures in that region. They came to the conclusion this was an event that was mostly natural in origin. There was no need to induce climate change to explain this event."
## [385] "As the table shows, there is no clear-cut answer as to what is happening to sea levels in the Pacific. If we average the data, we get a sea level fall of -11.2 mm/yr., but this still tells us almost nothing and has little meaning to an island such as Tonga, which is experiencing sea level rise. Given the large differences in sea level change it's difficult to know what is going on (www.vision.net.au/~daly)."
## [386] "Contrary to what you may have heard, both of those huge ice sheets are growing."
## [387] "So imagine how completely flabbergasted I am when I hear nonsense about co2 and causing global warming and Irene is a product of that, , when in a 2 year stretch, 1954-1955 6 hurricanes, affected N Carolinas with at least hurricane conditions and 8 in a 7 year stretch from 1954-1960. And cat 2 or greater in New England with a sideswipe to the west from the great Hazel in 1954, and then Donna in 1960, a storm that gave hurricane force winds to every state on the east coast."
## [388] "Actually the arctic ice is very 3rd highest level since 2002, very close to 2003, in a virtual tie to last winter and the highest year according to IARC-JAXA . The anomaly is a relatively small 300,000 square km according to The Cryosphere Today."
## [389] "A Chinese icebreaker named Snow Dragon ( MV Xue Long ) was sent to liberate the Russian vessel. However, this Chinese boat can only penetrate through the ice that is about 1.5 meters thick ??? and the thickness is 3-4 meters at many places, as I have mentioned. So the Chinese gave it up two days ago ??? while being about 30 km from the Russian vessel."
## [390] "Bao et al . next compared their record to other pluvial studies within and around their study region, of which they report \"similar fluctuation patterns of drought and pluvial intervals existed in several available tree-ring-based hydroclimatic reconstructions and ours.\" And based on their record and this regional comparison, Bao et al . conclude that \"the recent drought events from late 1990 to the present are not unusual in the context of the past several centuries.\" Once again, therefore, we have another reliable reconstruction that reveals there is nothing unusual, unnatural, or unprecedented about current (or past!) precipitation variability -- for either floods or droughts -- that would suggest a CO 2 -induced influence."
## [391] "The most intense hurricane in US history occurred in 1935, and seven of the ten most intense hurricanes occurred below 350 ppm. It has been seven years since a major hurricane hit the US the longest period on record."
## [392] "in the U.S. there has been little temperature change in the past 50 years, the time of rapidly increasing greenhouse gases in fact, there was a slight cooling throughout much of the country (Figure 2)."
## [393] "One-third of Mans entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since January 1997. Yet for 224 months since then there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). With this months RSS temperature record, the Pause sets a new record at 18 years 8 months."
## [394] "Provoked Scientists Try To Explain Global Warming Standstill The hunt for this missing energy, and the search for the mechanisms, both natural and artificial, that caused the temperature hiatus are, in many ways, a window into climate science itself. Beneath the sheen of consensus stating that human emissions are forcing warmer temperatures a notion no scientist interviewed for this story doubts there are deep uncertainties of how quickly this rise will occur, and how much air pollution has so far prevented this warming. Many question whether energy is missing at all."
## [395] "The Wild Jet Stream (Mini-Ice-Age) era we are now in has nothing whatsoever to do with CO2, says astrophysicist and forecaster Piers Corbyn."
## [396] "Temperatures are expected to be several degrees colder than usual for the rest of the week and dropping each day."
## [397] "Then there is the lack of warming since 2000, which is fully compatible with a solar explanation for late 20th century warming but is seriously at odds with the CO2 theory. Of course 10 or 15 years is not enough data to prove or disprove either theory, but the episode that is held to require a CO2 explanation is even slighter. The post 1970??s warming that is said to be incompatible with a solar explanation didn??t show a clear temperature signal until 97 or 98:"
## [398] "Ice in the Barents and Kara Seas is above normal now, and they will come up with a completely different serious sounding explanation for the harsh weather."
## [399] "Actually, more concern by all should be directed towards the potential of extreme global cooling, based on the most current 10-year trend"
## [400] "Climate change skeptics are doing a bit of gloating following a series of mainstream media reports that acknowledge what those skeptics have long held the earth is not warming, at least not in the last 10 years."
## [401] "Right now we are witnessing cold temperatures that we have not seen in decades. The following is the way that one meteorologist put it"
## [402] "Temperature in Greenland now is -67F, and only needs to warm up 100 degrees to get above freezing."
## [403] "Due to the lack of understanding a thermometer remains crucial. And it is not pointing in the direction of a doomsday. The temperature over the Northern Hemisphere has decreased since about 1950. In some countries the eighties were very warm, but there are countries where this is not the case. On Greenland there is little to be seen of the greenhouse effect. It has been very cold during the last couple of years."
## [404] "The highest recent rate of warming based on its linear trend occurred during the 154-month period that ended about 2004, but warming trends have dropped drastically since then. There was a similar drop in the 1940s, and as youll recall, global surface temperatures remained relatively flat from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s. Also note that the early-1970s was the last time there had been a 154-month period without global warmingbefore recently."
## [405] "A paper published today in Quaternary Research reconstructs drought and fire activity in Idaho during the Holocene and finds droughts have been relatively less common and rainfall less variable over the past century in comparison to the past 1,900 years. In addition, the paper finds fires were more common ~900-400 years ago in comparison to the past century. Contrary to the claims of climate alarmists, the paper finds fire activity is more common during wetter periods compared to drier, due to the denser vegetation and more variable climate. The paper adds to many other published papers finding there is nothing unprecedented, unusual, or unnatural about present day drought , extreme weather , and fire activity ."
## [406] "Sea level is not rising appreciably in California. The global warming industry is reduced to nothing but fantasy."
## [407] "Climate studies show that the world has already warmed about 0.8 degrees Celsius since 1900, but that warming has stopped and some scientists even argue that the world has cooled slightly since then."
## [408] "SHIMLA/MANALI: 15 Dec 2014 ??? Intense cold has gripped the entire Himachal Pradesh with unprecedented snowfall in areas where it had not snowed in many years. Snow not only covered Kullu, Bhuntar, Bajaura but also Panarsa area in Mandi district where snowing is not common. Across the state hundreds of roads were blocked throwing normal life out of gear."
## [409] "Hudson Bay sea ice cover is the highest since 1992, and is the third highest on record."
## [410] "The first conclusion is that as is not uncommon with sea level records, nearby tide gauges give very different changes in sea level. In this case, the Wilmington rise is 2.0 mm per year, while the Hampton Roads rise is more than twice that, 4.5 mm per year. In addition, the much shorter satellite records show only half a mm per year average rise for the last twenty years."
## [411] "The longer-term record shows global temperatures have hardly risen for about 15 years. But Dr Stott said the key point was that they had remained consistently above the long-term average. ( source )"
## [412] "So how do we get 1/2 of the present value when it was warm enough to melt Antarctica (while today Antarctic ice is growing)?"
## [413] "There also hasn't been an increase in the number of stormy seasons. Pre-1928, there were nine years with three or more hurricanes compared to only five years with three or more hurricanes post-1928."
## [414] "Between 1998 and 2012 the global economy more than doubled in sizeto some $71 trillion in GDP from $30 trillion. Thats the good news. Over the same period the world pumped more than 100 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. That is supposedly the bad news. Yet global surface temperatures have remained essentially flat. Thats the mystery: If emitting CO2 into the atmosphere causes global warming, why hasnt the globe been warming?"
## [415] "One of the authors of the new study today, Professor Jonathan Bamber of Bristol uni, carried out a previous effort to work out what scientists think sea levels will do, in which metre-range rises were described as \"conceivable\" but highly unlikely."
## [416] "Again the overall rise of the past 200 years is easily explained by sunspots, which is why a lot of people are nervous about cooling. After all, if you are claiming the sun caused the warming, andyou take it away, and the oceans flip to their negative phase, and a couple of volcanoes blow to boot, then there is real trouble. Hence the triple crown of cooling, which I showed on national TV 4 years ago when explaining why the cooling would commence, and by 2030 temperatures would return to levels seen in the late 1970s."
## [417] "They could have mentioned the remarkable absence of hurricanes making US landfall in the last 6 years or the fact there have many earlier decades with more major hurricane strikes than the last one."
## [418] "The actual Arctic has almost exactly normal sea ice, with only a few weeks remaining in the melt season."
## [419] "And whoops! climate scientists conceded last year that the Earths surface temperature stopped rising in 1997. (Or did temps take a temporary pause, as warmists say?) Too bad for makers of jet-skis and tank tops: We might see global cooling into the 2030s."
## [420] "With a few weeksof growth still to occur, the Arctic has blown away the previous record for ice gain this winter. This is only the third winter in history when more than 10 million km of new ice has formed."
## [421] "Liu et al . report that \"overall, the total Antarctic sea ice extent (the cumulative area of grid boxes covering at least 15% ice concentrations) has shown an increasing trend (~4,801 km 2 /yr).\" In addition, they find that \"the total Antarctic sea ice area (the cumulative area of the ocean actually covered by at least 15% ice concentrations) has increased significantly by ~13,295 km 2 /yr, exceeding the 95% confidence level,\" noting that \"the upward trends in the total ice extent and area are robust for different cutoffs of 15, 20, and 30% ice concentrations (used to define the ice extent and area).\" What it means"
## [422] "The dumbest global warming story below claimed a 1000 year storm surge as proof of sea level rise and global warming. We already established that sea level isnt rising there, but there is another problem."
## [423] "The EPA graph shows 2012as the hottest, when in fact it wasnt even in the top ten. They show 1936 at 50%, when in fact it was 75%."
## [424] "Already, the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been in full retreat after having to concede a 17-year stall in global warming despite levels of atmopheric CO2 rising almost 40 percent in recent decades. The new SABER data now forms part of a real world double whammy against climatologists' computer models that have always been programmed to show CO2 as a warming gas."
## [425] "Why is it that despite the past decade of increased CO2 emission levels, the temperature has been stable and is predicted by the Hadley Centre to actually go down over the next decade?"
## [426] "The highest recent rate of warming based on its linear trend occurred during the 160-month period that ended about 2004, but warming trends have dropped drastically since then. There was a similar drop in the 1940s, and as youll recall, global surface temperatures remained relatively flat from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s. Also note that the mid-1970s was the last time there had been a 161-month period without global warmingbefore recently."
## [427] "There is actually a cooling trend. There were ENSO neutral conditions throughout 2001, which makes it a good place to start any comparisons. In contrast, last year had moderate El Nino conditions, which makes the declining trend even more remarkable."
## [428] "Antarctica has a record amount of ice this year, and has been above normal for almost 500 consecutive days. A perfect time for Huffington Post to declare the continent to be without ice"
## [429] "Florida hasnt been hit by a hurricane in almost 8 years, the longest hurricane-free period on record. In the 19th century, Florida averaged about one hurricane per year compared to one every other year now."
## [430] "Last, according to Chen and Tung (2014), hiatus periods due to the sequestration of ocean heat to depth in the Atlantic and Southern Oceans can last 20 to 35 years. And they note the current hiatus period has already lasted 15 years. That indicates weve got another 5 to 20 years more to go with the current hiatus."
## [431] "Last week, I mentioned a study which Roy Spencer had done a couple of years ago into tornadoes, and which suggested that a greater number of strong/violent tornadoes occurred in cool years."
## [432] "Paper demonstrates the claim made by the IPCC that Himalayan glaciers were retreating at an abnormal rate and would disappear by 2035 was unsubtantiated. Glaciers in the Himalayas, over a period of the last 100 years, behave in contrasting ways, some shrinking, some expanding, some staying about the same. It is premature to make a statement that glaciers in the Himalayas are retreating abnormally because of the global warming."
## [433] "Dr Pearman suggested that much of the 0.7 degree Celsius increase in the earths temperature over the last 100 years has occurred in the last 10 years. Yet the last really hot year was in 1998 and global temperatures have since plateaued."
## [434] "It has returned to very near the 1979-2000 year average ( NSIDC ). Had NSIDC used the entire period of record as their base period (1979-2008), we would be at or above the average."
## [435] "Averaging the Dye 3 temperature record using the 22 year length of the Hale Cycle produces a lot of detail. What is evident is that there has been a very disciplined temperature decline over the last four thousand years. The whole temperature record is bounded by two parallel lines with a downslope of 0.3C per thousand years. The fact that no cooling event took the Dye 3 temperature below the lower bounding green line over nearly four thousand years is quite remarkable. It implies that solar events do not exceed a particular combination of frequency and amplitude. From that it can be derived that this particular combination of frequency and amplitude with be ongoing that is that cooling events will happen just as frequently as they did during the Dye 3 record."
## [436] "Such a dramatic decrease of the frequency of record cold temperatures is clearly not happening because the record cold temperatures seem to be as frequent as they were in the past. More precisely, their frequency should be naturally decreasing with the growing temperature records (with time)."
## [437] "Asked to explain data that showed the earth had been cooling in recent years, the trained astrophysicist acknowledged air temperatures had leveled during the La Nina weather pattern, now nearing an end.??"
## [438] "We find a similar pattern in the UK. The Met Office offer the following list of extreme rainfall events. The heavy rain at Seathwaite in 2009 stands out, but all the other events date to 1975 and earlier."
## [439] "Once again, and from the part of the world - high northern latitudes - where CO 2 -induced warming is predicted to be particularly dramatic, real-world data reveal no net warming over the last 117 years. As we are wont to say in our USHCN Temperature Record of the Week feature: \"Not much global warming here!\""
## [440] "This would mean global temperatures have not risen since 1998, prompting some to question climate change theory."
## [441] "The highest recent rate of warming based on its linear trend occurred during the 157-month period that ended about 2004, but warming trends have dropped drastically since then. There was a similar drop in the 1940s, and as youll recall, global surface temperatures remained relatively flat from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s. Also note that the early-1970s was the last time there had been a 157-month period without global warmingbefore recently."
## [442] "The most widely used metric of global warmingglobal surface temperaturesindicates that the rate of global warming has slowed drastically and that the duration of the hiatus in global warming is unusual during a period when global surface temperatures are allegedly being warmed from the hypothetical impacts of manmade greenhouse gases."
## [443] "Whatever happened to global warming? How freezing temperatures are starting to shatter climate change theory."
## [444] "This is quite remarkable, because the average of all NOAA tide gauges is less than one third of that, at 1.01 mm/year. Eighty four percent of the tide gauges show lower rates than 3.3 mm/year. The median value is only 1.28 mm/year."
## [445] "A Russian scientist says the regional heat wave taking place in Russia is not a sign of catastrophic climate change and that the permafrost has been thawing since the last ice age 10,000 years ago, and its rate of thawing is alsonot catastrophic."
## [446] "And including \"climate change\", as is being more and more talked about? Careful here. This is an ongoing debate and predictions are all but clear. And how do you intend to translate the virtual lack of global warming over the past decade into economic figures?"
## [447] "(16) Alarmists had indicated a decline of Antarctic ice due to warming. The upward trends since 1979 continues."
## [448] "Three bulldozer operators worked on the 4th of July trying to break down mountains of snow still towering over parts of Anchorage after the city broke its annual snowfall record of 132.6 inches."
## [449] "Leading hurricane expert Kerry Emmanuel has published a new paper in which he reports that his models suggest that global warming will cause a reduction in the number of hurricanes (with a slight rise in hurricane intensity in some regions)."
## [450] "Perhaps 2012 will turn out to be worse than 1886, when the US was hit by seven hurricanes including two major hurricanes."
## [451] "Now, of course, the drought is ended, the dams have refilled and the atmosphere hasn't warmed in 15 years. The hype has receded."
## [452] "Pacific coral atolls are not being drowned by extra sea-level rise; rather, atoll shorelines are affected by direct weather and infrequent high tide events, ENSO sea level variations, and impacts of increasing human populations."
## [453] "In any event, it is impossible to deny that this flatlining, whatever the cause may be, has huge implications for future projections of global temperatures. As such, this should be at the very centre of public debate."
## [454] "Global average temperature has been flat for a decade. But frightening myths about global warming continue."
## [455] "Tide gauge records are the primary source of sea level information over multi-decadal to century timescales. A critical issue in using this type of data to determine global climate-related contributions to sea level change concerns the vertical motion of the land upon which the gauges are grounded. Here we use observations from the Global Positioning System for the correction of this vertical land motion. As a result, the spatial coherence in the rates of sea level change during the 20th century is highlighted at the local and the regional scales, ultimately revealing a clearly distinct behavior between the northern and the southern hemispheres with values of 2.0mm/year and 1.1mm/year, respectively. Our findings challenge the widely accepted value of global sea level rise for the 20th century ."
## [456] "Sea ice news Volume 5, # 5 NSIDC: the expansion in Antarctic sea ice is confirmed http:// wp.me/p7y4l-tHR"
## [457] "The SREX Report seemed to conclude that, apart from warmer days and nights, there was no significant trend in heatwaves, tornadoes, hurricanes is that still the case?"
## [458] "Theres no indication that global warming will result in stronger storms. The World Meteorological Organisation announced earlier this year they find no connection between global warming and hurricane activity."
## [459] "The data shows a global mean sea level rise of only 1.85 mm/year since January 2005, a deceleration of 44% from the prior rate of 3.3 mm/year. At this rate, sea levels will rise 7 inches over the next 100 years. Break out the life rafts!"
## [460] "There is not the slightest indication that Arctic sea ice is disappearing. Arctic sea is two meters thick, the thickest it has been since 2006 and about the same thickness it was 75 years ago."
## [461] "Global sea ice levels decreased but then recently have come back to normal (at least the same levels as when we started monitoring)."
## [462] "If the standstill continues for a few more years it will mean that no one who has just reached adulthood, or younger, will have witnessed the Earth get warmer during their lifetime, said the reports author, Dr David Whitehouse."
## [463] "According to NOAA, drought in recent years has been at historically low levels, while precipitation has been trending upwards."
## [464] "Because non-CO 2 -forceced wetter and drier conditions than those of the present have occurred in this region in the past, such conditions can be expected to naturally recur in the future.?? Yet just as soon as the precipitation balance begins to tip towards one extreme or the other, you can count on there being a number of climate alarmists who will be all too eager to attribute the change to the ongoing rise in the air's CO 2 content, even when such attribution is clearly unwarranted. Reviewed 20 July 2005"
## [465] "What is actually going on is the exact opposite of the Guardians claims. Arctic sea ice is melting very slowly, and is nearing a mid-summer high for the past decade."
## [466] "The year as a whole is currently running as the second coldest since 1996, beaten only by the exceptionally cold year of 2010. Temperatures so far in December are 2 degrees below normal, and the Met Office are forecasting that this will continue for the foreseeable future."
## [467] "hurricane, tornado, flood and drought disaster frequencies have not increased globally, or in the U.S. ...( Ramez"
## [468] "Another famous place is the Tuvalu Islands, which are supposed to soon disappear ?? There we have a tide gauge record, a variograph record, from 1978, so it??s 30 years. And again ?? absolutely no trend, no rise."
## [469] "Figure 4. Projection of climate changes of the last century and past 500 years into the future. The black curve is temperature variation from 1900 to 2009; the red line is the IPCC projected warming from the IPCC website in 2000; the blue curves are several possible projections of climate change to 2040+ based on past global cooling periods (1945-1977; 1880 to 1915; and 1790 to 1820). The lack of sun spots during the past solar cycle has surpassed all records since the Dalton Minimum and some solar physicists have suggested we may be headed for a Dalton or Maunder type mimimum with severe cooling."
## [470] "RSS satellite temperatures show that by 2008, US temperatures had cooled down below what they were during all of the non-volcano years of the 1980s and 1990s."
## [471] "Polar Ice Check - Still a lot of ice up there Watts Up With That? In most years, there are open waters in the area north of the archipelago in July month. Studies from this year however show that the area is covered by ice, the Meteorological Institute writes in a press release. In mid-July, the research vessel Lance and the Swedish ship MV Stockholm got stuck in ice in the area and needed help from the Norwegian Coast Guard to get loose. The ice findings from the area spurred surprise among the researchers, many of whom expect the very North Pole to be ice-free by September this year."
## [472] "The cold winters are likely to continue and so are the floods for the next 20-30 years as the 60 year planetary climate cycle goes into its cold phase. We are having the winters like the previous cold cycle 30 years ago. Yet Environment Canada only talks about continuing global warming . on their web page .There is absolutely nothing about possible global cooling or warning to the Canadian public and businesses about possible flooding again, crop losses, infrastructure disruptions, etc from the pending weather."
## [473] "While the nations weather in individual years or even for periods of years has been hotter or cooler and drier or wetter than in other periods, the new study shows that over the last century there has been no trend in one direction or another."
## [474] "Anyone who'd like to argue that the world is experiencing a \"new normal\" with respect to tropical cyclones is simply mistaken. Over the past 4 years, the world is actually in the midst of a very low period in tropical cyclone landfalls -- at least as measured over the past 43 years."
## [475] "Figure 5 illustrates the annual Indian Ocean Sea Level from 1993 to 2007. From 1999 to 2007, Indian Ocean Sea Level appears to have increased exponentially, but a look at the smoothed data in Figure 4 reveals that the rise has ended. http://i33.tinypic.com/9kpm39.jpg Figure 5"
## [476] "(Note: The article started out by saying record low temperatures. Then it switched to coldest temperatures of the year. I dont know which statement is true. Either way, it certainly doesn??t look like ???global warming.??)"
## [477] "U.S. sees 2,232nd consecutive days without being hit by major hurricane ???shatters?? previous streak set in 1906 Prof. Pielke Jr.: ???Since there won??t be any intense hurricanes before next summer, the record will be shattered, with the days between intense hurricane landfalls likely to exceed 2,500 days??"
## [478] "Over the past few years, Arctic has shown considerable reduction in sea ice levels due to global warming. However, Antarctica has cooled and has even gained some ice recently . A new study suggests that ocean circulation can explain why the polar regions have different reactions towards rise in earths temperature."
## [479] "It is worth pointing out that the Index looked much worse for Al Gore back in May when the UAH graph showed its lowest temperature in at least eight years. Since May, the temperatures have been slowly ticking up, but are still lower than when Al Gore released An Inconvenient Truth, which just underscores the decline (or flattening off) of the globabally averaged temperatures in the past ten years. Even with a six month increase in temperatures Al Gore is still in negative territory."
## [480] "CO2 Science Sheffer et al. conclude that \"the extraordinary flood of 2002 was not the largest in the basin\" of the Gardon River. And their findings and those of many others, both in France and elsewhere, suggest that the really huge European floods of the past few centuries occurred during colder rather than warmer times, which relationship is just the opposite of what the world's climate alarmists claim to be the case."
## [481] "She said the world might be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when temperatures fell over a longer period leading some scientists to predict a new ice age."
## [482] "Will MSM Report on 2008 Arctic Ice Increase? | NewsBusters.org Good news! Despite the recent global warming alarmism in the media that Arctic ice might melt away completely from the North Pole this summer, the latest scientific observations show that Arctic ice has actually increased by nearly a half million square miles over this time last year. This is in stark contrast to the Chicken Little hysteria that was being promoted less than a month ago on the CBS Early Show as reported by Kyle Drennen on June 27 here in NewsBusters..."
## [483] "William of Ockham might explain this increase of Antarctic sea ice extent as an effect of the STH having cooled, just as the loss of Arctic sea ice has been explained as an effect of the NTH having warmed."
## [484] "Previous attempts to explain the global surface temperature cooling trend have relied more heavily on climate model results or a combination of modeling and observations, which may be better at simulating long-term impacts over many decades and centuries. This study relied on observations, which are better for showing shorter-term changes over 10 to 20 years."
## [485] "d) Evidence shows that extreme rainfall events are becoming neither more frequent, or intense see here."
## [486] "Obviously, since 1996, the last 18 years has witnessed its normal wide variation in temperature swings but the overall linear trends are cooling for all three datasets, NOT WARMING as predicted."
## [487] "A recent article in the British newspaper, The Register , reported on a study by scientists in Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom, that was published in Nature Geoscience that concluded there was no scientific consensus to suggest the rate of the seas rise will accelerate dangerously."
## [488] "As there has been no noticeable change in the rate of sea level rise since 2010, there is no evidence that the new figures claimed for Antarctica represent any significant increase."
## [489] "There seems no end in sight to the long-term growth of seasonal Antarctic sea ice, reports RTCC (link below). This continues to baffle scientists, to quote the usual expression."
## [490] "It is interesting to note that although several studies have indicated that Atlantic Ocean hurricanes of the past few decades have been no more numerous than they were in prior cooler periods -- see Tropical Cyclones (Atlantic Ocean - Global Warming Effects) in our Subject Index -- in this special case , where extra warmth does appear to enhance their numbers, they seem to be preferentially steered away from the coastal regions of the United States, sparing the country much of the extra damage they might otherwise cause."
## [491] "So far this year, the northeast US has been record cold, with by far the driest snow on record. The ratio of snow to precipitation has been double thelong termaverage."
## [492] "Short answer, data to date says no. There has been no acceleration the rate of sea level rise. Sea level has been rising for centuries. But the rate of the rise has not changed a whole lot. Both tidal stations and satellites show no increase in the historic rate of sea level rise, in either the short or long term. Fig. 1 shows the most recent satellite data."
## [493] "4.Global average temperatures during the 2030's will reach a level of at least 1.5 C lowerthan the peak temperature year of the past 100 years established in 1998. The temperatures during the 2030's will correspond roughly to that observed from 1793 to 1830, shortly after the founding of the United States of America. This average lower global temperature of 1.5 C on average, translates to declines in temperatures that will be devastating for crop growing regions in the mid latitudes of the planet."
## [494] "With Arctic ice extent just 6% below average at the end of October, global sea ice area remains just above normal."
## [495] "South Australia??s hottest day is still the 50.7 degrees Oodnadatta suffered 37 years ago. NSW??s high is still the 50 degrees recorded 70 years ago."
## [496] "May 2007 and October 2007 share the silver and bronze medals with the anomaly of 0.091 Celsius degrees which is 0.81 Celsius degrees cooler than the warmest RSS month, April 1998. Using Al Gore's terminology, two of the three coldest months in this century have occurred in this year! ;-)"
## [497] "Once again, over a period of time described by climate alarmists as having experienced \"unprecedented\" global warming, and in contradiction of the climate-model-inspired assumption that rising global temperatures increase the frequency and intensity of severe storms, real-world data demonstrate that ? it just ain't so ."
## [498] "Note here that the Russian scientists confirm that the Arctic sea ice extent was also low in the 1930s. This tells us that nothing is really so unusual in the Arctic today."
## [499] "One likely culprit is the oceans, which already absorb most of the heat. The latest research suggests that more heat than expected could be going into the deep oceans, below 700 metres 7 . Another possibility that scientists have investigated is whether volcanic ash from minor eruptions and pollution from the industrialization of China and other countries are reflecting more of the Sun's energy back into space 8 . Still another is the prolonged lull in solar activity early in the millennium, which might decrease the amount of energy hitting Earth."
## [500] "Friel then claims the Little Ice Age was a North Atlantic phenomenon and claims that the cryosphere is melting. Clearly Friel hasnt looked at the Antarctic ice records for the past 30 years."
## [501] "Finally, lets take a look at global sea ice area, which has been running above average for most of this year."
## [502] "A weak global cooling began from the mid-1940s and lasted until mid-1970s. I predict this is what we will see in the next few decades."
## [503] "The worst tornado in US history occurred in 1925. It had wind speeds over 300 mph and destroyed 15,000 homes."
## [504] "Heavy snow is expected on Wednesday in parts of Canterbury and Marlborough, with the MetService warning snow could be more than 1 meter (3 feet) deep in places."
## [505] "The last two years have been a real Arctic nightmare for greens who hate the human race, but it gets much worse. There has been a massive increase in the amount of oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic over the past three years, and next year is set to double the amount of five+ year old ice."
## [506] "In the September 7 Gazette article, \"Global warming makes firefighting more dangerous,\" Running is quoted saying \"Since 1986, longer, warmer summers have resulted in a fourfold increase of major wildfires and a sixfold increase in the area of forest burned, compared to the period from 1970 to 1986.\" Fortunately for scientific truth, the National Interagency Fire Center keeps detailed statistics on wildfires going back to 1960. The objective data show wildfires are decreasing, not increasing, as the planet modestly warms."
## [507] "On average, Antarctic sea ice reaches minimum on 20th February, about a month earlier, relatively speaking, than the Arctic. It is likely then that we will see a new record high minimum set this month. The current record was set in 2008, with 3.691 million sq km."
## [508] "I don't want to jinx a good thing by talking about it, but good news on the climate front continues, although you wouldn't know it from reading your local newspaper or watching the news on television. In less than two months (October 6, 2016) it will be 4,000 days since the last time a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) made landfall in the United States, Wilma on October 24, 2005."
## [509] "The previous six months shows a quite different pattern of local trends, but, again, the global trend is cooling."
## [510] "The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index is a 24-month running sum of monthly energy levels in all hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index hit a 30-year low in October 2008."
## [511] "Conclusion : Should we expect a nice recovery this summer due to the thicker ice? You bet ya. Even if all the ice less than 2.5 metres thick melted this summer, we would still see a record high minimum in the DMI charts."
## [512] "A few weeks after the White Housedeclared the end of winter sportsdue to global warming, Colorado has record snowpack and streamflow."
## [513] "From 1896: Japan suffers giant earthquake, tsunami and typhoon before large levels of human CO2 emissions and modern global warming."
## [514] "There are several favorite lines of defense when trying to rationalize away the record Antarctic ice."
## [515] "???By the end of this 21st Century, a big cool down may occur that could ultimately lead to expanding glaciers worldwide, even in the mid-latitudes. We could possibly see even a new Great Ice Age. Based on long-term climatic data, these major ice ages have recurred about every 11,500 years. Well, you guessed it. The last extensive ice age was approximately 11,500 years ago, so we may be due.??"
## [516] "Moreover, our recent climate has been more stable than the chaotic little ice ages. Iraq has not had a three-century drought recently. The Volga River Valley has not been too flooded to farm for 700 years, as happened after 600 BC. British logbooks show the Little Ice Age featured more than twice as many major hurricanes making landfall in the Caribbean, compared to the twentieth century."
## [517] "Freezing temperatures ruled Switzerland on Sunday night (Feb 10). In many places in Graubnden the thermometer dropped far below zero. The mercury plunged to -29.4 degrees in Buffalora SRF Meteo, to -27.3 in Samedan, and -20.4 degrees in Davos."
## [518] "According to wire reports, temperatures reached their lowest point in 30 years , reaching to -2C in the capital, Riyadh, and to -6C in mountainous regions blanketed by snow. At least 10 people have died in the country as a weather system driven South from Siberia sent temperatures plummeting .Below are some pictures of snow from that region."
## [519] "As of today, it has been a record 118 months since the last major hurricane struck the continental United States, according to records kept by the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administrations (NOAA) Hurricane Research Division , which list all hurricanes to strike the U.S. mainland going back to 1851"
## [520] "Figure 4 shows the real global temperature development of the past 1000 years and its theoretical continuation over the next 700 years. This is not a forecast, but rather it is the extended possible course of the over all temperature trend, which over the mid-term in the next 100 years could see a drop of approx. 0.3C and a 2C drop in global temperature in 350 years which would mean conditions just like those seen in the Little Ice Age from 1450 to 1700.In about 1000 years the 1000-year cycle will again take on its warm phase and temperatures like those of today can be expected."
## [521] "Quite simply the hurricane and cyclone records demonstrate a decline in the numbers and force. The primary reason insurance losses have increased is migration of people (and therefore increase in property value) to more attractive coastal areas such as Florida in the natural hurricane path."
## [522] "Stefan Rahmstorfs Sea Level Amnesia Using His Own Numbers, Sea Level Rise Actually Slowed Down 3%!"
## [523] "SMHI also issued a class 1 warning ??? meaning weather conditions that can involve some risks and disruptions ??? for Halland and Blekinge counties, two other southern regions where snowfall, windy weather and between five and 15 centimetres of snow were expected on Sunday."
## [524] "Over the years Germany has been bombarded by the media with dire warnings that the warming was galloping ahead like never before. Now suddenly observations and measurement data show theres been no warming even though CO2 emissions have steadily risen. The public is wondering."
## [525] "East Antarctica is four times the size of west Antarctica and parts of it are cooling. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research report prepared for last week??s meeting of Antarctic Treaty nations in Washington noted the South Pole had shown ???significant cooling in recent decades??."
## [526] "Has there been any warming since 1997 (Jonathan Leakes question)? There has been slight warming during the past 15 years. Is it cherry picking to start a trend analysis at 1998? No, not if you are looking for a long period of time where there is little or no warming, in efforts to refute Hypothesis I."
## [527] "The pause is now the ever greater pause . And even if global temperature sets new record highs, it will be by hundredths of a degree, well below the model-predicted increase. The pause is even more the climate-model discrepancy . 95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong , one climatologist humorously wrote."
## [528] "Pat and Chip thencompare the black part of the chart above (theportion of U.S. temperatures influenced by global temperatures) with the PDSI. They find no relationship between global temperature variations and U.S. drought conditions (graph below, left) but a significant relationship between PDSI and non-global warming factors (graph below, right)."
## [529] "The next problem with an ???ice-free Arctic?? is that summer temperatures north of 80N have not changed over the last 50 years. You can see that in the DMI graphs . If anything, recent years have had colder summers near the pole. High Arctic warming has occurred in other seasons, but not during the summer. The melt season is very short at the pole , and some summers have no melt."
## [530] "And what happened? Mr Letts asked. Zilch, said Mr Lilley. Nothing. There was no global warming over the ensuing decade. And, indeed, when 2014 arrived, we could see that far from this forecast coming to pass, the temperature trend had not, in fact, risen since 1998."
## [531] "Floods usually occur in the middle and lower reaches of the major rivers in China. These floods are experienced on a recurring basis along this and other river systems in China. The periodic severe flooding associated with these heavy rainfall events kill from several thousand to several hundred thousand people. During this century major flooding disasters occurred in 1900,1911, 1915,1931,1935,1950, 1954,1959, 1991 and 1998 mainly in the Yangtze River Valley."
## [532] "When those early records are taken into account, it is clear that New South Wales experienced cooling from the late 1800s to about 1960. After 1960, temperatures across the state and the nation started to increase. This warming continued until it reached a plateau in 2002. Because the warming of the late twentieth century never completely negated the cooling of the early twentieth century, the overall net trend is actually one of cooling. In the case of Newcastle, its a cooling of 0.63 degree Celsius per century."
## [533] "In the words of the authors, \"during the period 1801-1900, the western European lakes show no significant trend whereas annual mean air temperatures at the eastern European lakes decrease significantly.\" For the period 1901-1997, on the other hand, they note there is a warming trend \"at all but the Fennoscandian lakes.\" Even more interesting is what one learns when the 20 years from 1781-1801 are also considered. In terms of sliding decadal averages, four of the lakes depict net increases in air temperature over the 216-year period, as one would expect for a world that has just experienced a century of \"unprecedented\" global warming, as climate alarmists would have us believe. Three of the lakes, however, exhibit no net change in temperature; and four of them actually depict net cooling . What it means"
## [534] "There hasnt been any sea level rise in the San Francisco Bay for at least 70 years."
## [535] "However, the trends of increases or decreases in extreme daily rainfall are not statistically significant; although, there have been changes in extreme rain events in certain areas in the Philippines. For instance, intensity of extreme daily rainfall is already being experienced in most parts of the country, but not statistically significant (see in Fig.14 ). Likewise, the frequency has exhibited an increasing trend, also, not statistically significant (as shown in Fig.15 )."
## [536] "They??ve gone down .39 degrees Celsius per decade from 1986 to 2011. These two periods of down-trending annual temperatures were separated by a curious and unexplained temperature step change increase of 3.6 degrees F occurring between 1985 and 1986."
## [537] "The start of the current pause is difficult to determine precisely. Although 1998 is often quoted as the start of the current pause, this was an exceptionally warm year because of the largest El Nio in the instrumental record. This was followed by a strong La Nia event and a fall in global surface temperature of around 0.2oC (Figure 1), equivalent in magnitude to the average decadal warming trend in recent decades. It is only really since 2000 that the rise in global surface temperatures has paused."
## [538] "Steve Fielding confronts Climate Minister Penny Wong with his question : why has the world not warmed these past seven eight years when were pumping out more carbon dioxide than ever?"
## [539] "Solar cycle 24 showing signs that we could be entering a new Maunder minimum anytime soon."
## [540] "Ron Clutz on Science Matters, has an interesting and very detailed piece on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ( AMOC ): Climate Pacemaker: The AMOC . It was also picked up by Paul Homewood on Not a Lot of People Know That with a comment by Joe DAleo The AMO tracks to the solar irradiance with a lag of about 8-9 years. This suggests the current warm AMO state will end by around 2015. Northern Hemispheric temperature will take a leg down. With the cooling of the Pacific now and more La Ninas, look for net cooling especially in the tropics until then."
## [541] "Since we have now been in an interglacial warm period for 11,500 years, (the normal length between ice ages), we should be more worried about getting colder then warmer in the future."
## [542] "Back on August 6, 2010 , when the UK BOM was predicting a warm winter, and every Met Agency in the West was already declaring that 2010 would be the hottest year ever, Bryan Leyland predicted (on a global scale) that before the end of the year, there would be significant cooling. As you can see from the chart, this is exactly what happened."
## [543] "WCVB TV reports that, \"Boston also set a record with the most snow in 30 days with 60.8 inches.'"
## [544] "Arctic Sea ice area is above the ???normal?? line as defined by NANSEN. As far as I know, NSIDC does not offer an equivalent plot. If I am in error and somebody knows where to find NSIDC??s area plot, please let me know and I will include it here."
## [545] "Finally, if the global temperature begins to rise again, we can consider the implementation of a carbon tax."
## [546] "Or, to look at it in yet another way, were being told that, while surface temperatures are no longer warming, the oceans to depth continue to warmyet the warming is not occurring in the largest ocean basin, the Pacific, and the North Atlantic is showing evidence of cooling."
## [547] "Ocean SST as measured by PDO, AMO, ocean heat content and ENSO cycles and pressure changes as measured by AO and NAO are all pointing to a future cooling planet. AMO has gone negative in November 2011 for the first time since early 2009. Time will tell whether this is just the normal seasonal dip or a long-term pattern. This cooler AMO, if sustained through the winter, could signify cooler weather for the US east coast and Western Europe. Several severe storms have already happened this fall on both sides of the Atlantic."
## [548] "4. According to Marlo Lewis in A Skeptics Guide to the Inconvenient Truth ** tide gauge records show that sea levels at Tuvalu actually fell during the latter half of the 20th Century. This is an island often quoted as being lost to rising sea levels including in Al Gores book also called An Inconvenient Truth where there is a two-page photograph and reference to the islands of Funafuti and Tuvalu and residents having to evacuate their homes because of rising seas."
## [549] "A new assessment of global mean sea level from altimeters highlights a reduction of global trend from 2005 to 2008"
## [550] "What you see if you do a linear regression is a cooling trend by 0.49 ??F = 0.27 ??C per decade. The cooling between 2006 and 2008 was more dramatic: from 55 ??F to 53 ??F, by a whopping two degrees Fahrenheit!"
## [551] "But now scientists claim that warming of the planet is in fact behind a paradoxical growth in South Pole sea ice."
## [552] "A paper by the same author finds we are nowhere near a \"tipping point\" regarding Arctic Sea Ice"
## [553] "A suggestion the Great Gale of 1821 was worse than Hurricane Sandy, and Alarmists are wrong to suggest otherwise."
## [554] "Earth to looney left. A record cold winter is the wrong time to be picking a global warming fight."
## [555] "The all-clear signal on the hurricane front is another setback for the IPCC. In keeping with lead author Kevin Trenberths predictions, the IPCC report warned that there would be more hurricanes in a greenhouse climate. One of the graphs in the IPCC report is particularly mysterious. Without specifying a source, the graph suggestively illustrates how damage caused by extreme weather increases with rising average temperatures."
## [556] "Read here . The IPCC, its climate models and its Climategate scientists have become infamous for flat-out, dreadful, incorrect climate predictions. A prominent prediction of an increase in severe weather due to global warming (ie, climate change) was made long ago, yet all the empirical research keeps confirming the lack of an increase. (click on image for more info)"
## [557] "#3 Temperatures have dropped or stayed flat for the last 10 years. This is absolutely in opposition to climate predictions of 10, 5, 3, 1 years ago. The earth has not followed the predictions of the climate models"
## [558] "Sea level is rising no faster than for the past 150 years. From 2004 to 2012, the Envisat satellite reported a rise of one-tenth of an inch. From 2003 to 2009, gravity satellites actually showed sea level falling. Results like these have not hitherto been reported in the mainstream news media."
## [559] "Based on this analysis we can say that there is a probability of 94% of imminent global cooling and the beginning of the coming ice age."
## [560] "Because hurricanes form over warm ocean water, it is easy to assume that the recent rise in their number and ferocity is because of global warming. But that is not the case, scientists say. Instead, the severity of hurricane seasons changes with cycles of temperatures of several decades in the Atlantic Ocean. The recent onslaught \"is very much natural,\" said William M. Gray, a professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University who issues forecasts for the hurricane season."
## [561] "As bad as this year has been for Arctic alarmists, their pain is just beginning. Melt has been extremely slow in August, in fact area has notchanged for about a week, and is now largerthan 2006"
## [562] "David Whitehouse reviews the scientific literature and shows that the global warming standstill is a reality. Full report"
## [563] "A new paper published in Environmental Research Letters finds excuse #66 for the 18+ year \"pause\" of global warming :There's no \"pause\" if you look at only the one single warmest and coldest days per year."
## [564] "The observed reduction in warming trend over the period 1998-2012 as compared to the period 1951- 2 2012, is due in roughly equal measure to a cooling contribution from internal variability and a reduced trend in radiative forcing (medium confidence). The reduced trend in radiative forcing is primarily due to volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the current solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of changes in radiative forcing in causing this reduced warming trend. {Box 9.2; 10.3.1; Box 10.2}"
## [565] "In 1908, a hurricane formed on March 6, the earliest on record. Ah, for the good old days of early spring hurricanes.."
## [566] "This comes on the heels of a review of the ICESat satellite data from 1992 to 2008, which showed a net gain in ice mass in Antarctica."
## [567] "First, standard climate alarmism claims that manmade emissions of greenhouse gases are warming surface temperatures. But not only is such warming not being observed in Antarctica, its actually getting cooler in western Antarctica, according to surface temperature analysis from each of eight NASA stations located there."
## [568] "Clearly, sea levels have actually been falling in the last decade, after very little change in the 1990s."
## [569] "The recent hype in Nature notwithstanding, Greenland has been cooling for the better part of two generations."
## [570] "The Chicago River is largely frozen over this morning, as a historically cold air mass plunges most of the nation into a deep freeze.The temperature at Chicago's O'Hare airport was 16 degrees below zero this morning, shattering the previous January 6 low temperature record of 14 degrees below zero set in 1884 and 1988.Temperatures at the South Pole were 11 degrees below zero five degrees warmer than Chicago at the time Chicago set its low temperature record..Meteorologists at Weather Bell reported the average temperature in the United States registered merely 14.8 degrees Fahrenheit this morning, with strong Arctic cold extending into South Texas and Florida.Global warming activists and their media allies have already begun blaming global warming for the record cold.The accompanying photo was taken this morning by Heartland Institute communications director Jim Lakely."
## [571] "Furthermore, there has been no ???global warming??, in any statistically-significant sense, for 15 years. Indeed, there has been global cooling for nine years. In general, there was less warming in the southern hemisphere than in the northern hemisphere anyway. So the likelihood that manmade ???global warming?? had or has any measurable impact on the glaciers of the Andes is very small indeed. But that will not stop the likes of Al Gore and the New York Times (with which he works closely) suggesting otherwise."
## [572] "The1899 San Ciriaco hurricane was the longest lasting storm on record, and killed more than 3,000 people."
## [573] "I was reading through the latest State of the Climate in 2006 put out by AMS, and was kind of puzzled by their discussion of Antarctic Sea Ice on page S74. while there was considerable discussion of the reduction of sea ice in the Arctic, there was no discussion of the rising trend of March sea ice as shown on the lower left of Fig 5.22. In fact, after reading through the discussion, I at least, was left with impression that negative ice cover trends and locations where they took place were more important than the overall positive trend as shown in the figure."
## [574] "6. No Global Warming for 15 Years: David Whitehouse. http://jennifermarohasy.com/2012/04/no-global-warming-for-15-years-david-whitehouse/"
## [575] "Given the intense interest in Arctic Sea Ice this year, since it appears we have a potential for recovery again, I??ve decided to put all the sea ice graphs and imagery in one handy place for easy nail biting reference."
## [576] "Despite claims that it continues to get warmer and warmer, this table from NOAA/NCDC indicates that 2011 was in the middle of the pack, going all the way back to 1980 (the start of the global warming era). Such remote years as 1981, 1986, 1987, and 1990 were hotter."
## [577] "There is no evidence at all of an increasing trend over the last decade and temperatures since 2006 have averaged 15.8C, a similar level to the late 1940s."
## [578] "Last May I wrote about a study which he had authored where he found that weather extremes in the Alps had not increased."
## [579] "On the basis of these findings, the authors conclude that this worst drought of the modern meteorological record \"is not likely to be purely anthropogenic in origin.\" And if it is no different from what has been occurring over and over again for the past 1500 years, it is surely not the result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions."
## [580] "In Keremali Akyaz Plateau district about 10 most elderly stranded citizens were rescued after heavy snowfall there mounted up to 70 cm (27 inches)."
## [581] "Also July of 2015, and thus the 19th year without any signfiant linear global warming, the question remains: wheres the global warming ?"
## [582] "It is a huge no-brainer that Jan 1974 rain exceeded Jan 2001 . Note the BoM coy way of putting it ??? ???? what data the bureau has suggests 1893??s rainfall was extreme.?? Feb 1893 rain might have exceeded Jan 1974 and 2011 combined."
## [583] "The hiatus period of 18 years 4 months, or 220 months, is the farthest back one can go in the RSS satellite temperature record and still show a sub-zero trend."
## [584] "Sea level in the region has been completely steady since 1975, Taminos period of modern global warming. Once again, scientists are trying to pretend that they know something scary, when in fact there is not one shred of evidence to support their claims."
## [585] "November to April snow extent was the highest on record this year, and has increased sharply since CO2 hit Hansens global warming tipping point of 350 PPM."
## [586] "But skiers can enjoy the snowfall. In the Carpathians, snow does not stop almost daily. The slopes of the tourist complex Bukovel are covered by 10 -cm layer of snow. If this continues, management is optimistic and hopes this years ski season will start in the middle of November."
## [587] "CEI Response: Davis found a net ice balance increase of 1.4cm/yr over his entire region of coverage (ROC). The East Antarctic Ice Sheet is gaining at a rate of 1.8cm/yr (over the period 1992-2003) and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is thinning at a rate of 0.9 cm/yr. He writes: \"For the ROC, the 5:1 ratio in East versus West Antarctic area coverage causes slight thickening overall at a rate of 1.4 +/- 0.3 cm/yr.\" Thus, it is a fair assessment to say that overall, Davis found that the portion of Antarctica in his ROC has been gaining ice. Indeed, the title of Davis's article states that, \"Snowfall-Driven Growth in East Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigates Recent Sea-Level Rise.\" We think this is good news, but the general public seldom (or never) hears it."
## [588] "Megadroughts lasting a century or two are known to have occurred in what is now California over the last 3,500 years. Droughts of similar severity have also been implicated in the downfall of the empire of the Maya in Central America a millennium ago; the Akkadian empire (the worlds first) in Mesopotamia 4,200 years ago (that drought lasted 300 years) and several pre-Inca cultures in South America."
## [589] "The title makes you instantly skeptical because sea ice isnt at its lowest even in the last two years. Of course we then have to wonder how they determined sea ice levels back 800 years."
## [590] "Had these scientists found an increase in the total number of tropical cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere, they would need to hire press agents to handle the global coverage. Their work would be front page news all over the world, Time and Newsweek would be all over the story, and thousands of web pages would trumpet the results. However, they found no trends, or even downward trends, in total tropical cyclone frequency over a huge area of the planet coverage at World Climate Report is about all they can expect."
## [591] "The trends in the neutron count over the lastfew solar cycles strengthens the forecast of coming cooling made from projectingthe PDO and Millennial cycle temperature trends.The decline in solar activity from 1990 (Cycle 22) to the present (Cycle 24) is obvious."
## [592] "If we could pick the month when global warming officially started, it would be March of 1985. The previous month, February of 1985, was the last time the temperature of the Earth was below the average for the 20th century. Over twenty-seven years ago. Every month since then 329 months in a row has been above the 20th century average"
## [593] "Monbiot and Lynass one sop to science is to link to the official sea level rise data for the Maldives. At one site the sea level is rising by 3mm a year, as the IPCC says; at the other, the rise is zero, as Mrner says."
## [594] "We frequently hear that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of droughts in Africa. There is, of course, no evidence that current droughts are any worse than historical ones."
## [595] "More Midwest daily maximum temperature records were set in the heat waves of 1911 and the 1930s than in the 2012 heat wave."
## [596] "The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years."
## [597] "When looking at the temperature trends , it is clear that global warming has actually been missing for the last 15 years. This has definitely been the case of the continental U.S. as the graph on the left depicts."
## [598] "But NSIDC seems to be thinking differently in their March 3, 2010 newsletter . They say Antarctica is cooling and sea ice is increasing (makes sense ??? ice is associated with cold.)"
## [599] "In all of the discussions of the global warming hiatus in AR5, the IPCC starts the hiatus period in 1998, limiting the hiatus period to the last 15 years. They also limit the presentation to the data and models that represent the combined global land surface air plus sea surface temperatures. This discussion shows that the hiatus period has lasted much longer than 15 years in some ocean basins."
## [600] "Professional alarmist Tim Flannery whips up more fear by exploiting bushfires which he falsely claims were unusual and unprecedented:"
## [601] "Drought severity and area has declined sharply in the USsince the 12th century. The exact opposite of what Obama claims."
## [602] "Winter storms throughout southern Scandinavia were more frequent and intense during the multi-century Dark Ages Cold Period and Little Ice Age than they were during the Roman Warm Period, Medieval Warm Period and Modern Warm Period, providing strong evidence to refute the climate-alarmist contention that storminess tends to increase during periods of greater warmth. Actually, just the opposite is generally found to be true, not only here but in most other parts of the world, as may be readily appreciated by reviewing the materials we have posted in our Subject Index under the general heading of Weather Extremes (Storms) ."
## [603] "The IPCC does not have a convincing or confident explanation for this hiatus in warming."
## [604] "Floods : Prof. Pielke Jr. : 'Are US Floods Increasing? The Answer is Still No' -- 'A new paper out today shows flooding has not increased in U.S. over records of 85 to 127 years'"
## [605] "Recall that she mentioned polar ice, sea levels, storms, and ocean acidification. With respect to polar ice, the National Snow and Ice Data Center reports that the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extents now do not differ from their respective 19812010 averages as a matter of statistical significance. (The 20152016 Arctic data are near the bottom of the statistical confidence interval, while the 20152016 Antarctic data are near the 19812010 average.)"
## [606] "Yet, even *after* Haiyan, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of all cyclones in the Western North Pacific is below normal (99%, http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php ). The global ACE is at 74%."
## [607] "The Wall Street Journal ran a story on March 9, In Study, Past Decade Ranks Among Hottest . It was about a study published in a recent issue of the Journal Science claiming that a one degree temperature variation resulted in 2000-2009 being one of the warmest since modern record-keeping began. Their claim is that the planet will be warmer in 2100 than it has been for 11,300 years. Thats about the amount of time since the end of the last ice age and the beginning of the Holocene, an epoch of warm weather that gave rise to civilizationabout 5,000 years ago. The length of the periods between ice ages is about 11,500 years. Another ice age will kick in any day now."
## [608] "This dovetails nicely with our own Al Gore/AIT Index which is currently -.594 degrees Fahrenheit as of the end of July, 2008, i.e. the globally averaged satellite-based temperature has dropped .594 degrees Fahrenheit since An Inconvenient Truth was released January 24, 2006."
## [609] "The latest data actually show temperatures have dropped in recent years. The IPCC and other scientists have branded this as a ?pause? in climate change. Ball said that characterization implies that temperatures are temporarily holding steady and will inevitably rise again soon. He said that conclusion is dead wrong."
## [610] "Since temperatures have stabilized in the last decade, we looked at the correlation of the CO2 with HCSN data. Greenhouse theory and models predict an accelerated warming with the increasing carbon dioxide."
## [611] "New data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration show atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are continuing to rise but global temperatures are not following suit. The new data undercut assertions that atmospheric carbon dioxide is causing a global warming crisis.NOAA data show atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose 2.67 parts per million in 2012, to 395 ppm. The jump was the second highest since 1959, when scientists began measuring atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.Global temperatures are essentially the same today as they were in 1995, when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels were merely 360 ppm. Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels rose 10 percent between 1995 and 2012, yet global temperatures did not rise at all. Global warming activists are having a difficult time explaining the ongoing disconnect between atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures.Read the full story in my weekly Forbes.com article, available here."
## [612] "Arctic sea ice extent is currently running 577,000 sq km above 2006 levels, and higher than any year since then except for 2008."
## [613] "Jan 2010: One of the report??s co-authors, hydrologist David Post, told The Canberra Times there was ??no evidence?? linking drought to climate change in eastern Australia, including the Murray-Darling Basin."
## [614] "\" analyzed storminess across the whole of southeast (SE) Australia using extreme (standardized seasonal 95th and 99th percentiles) geostrophic winds deduced from eight widespread stations possessing sub-daily atmospheric pressure observations dating back to the late 19th century The four researchers report that their results \"show strong evidence for a significant reduction in intense wind events across SE Australia over the past century.\" More specifically, they say that \"in nearly all regions and seasons, linear trends estimated for both storm indices over the period analyzed show a decrease,\" while \"in terms of the regional average series,\" they say that \"all seasons show statistically significant declines in both storm indices, with the largest reductions in storminess in autumn and winter.\""
## [615] "While all the press is about the observed declines in Arctic sea ice extent in recent decades, little attention at all is paid to the fact that the sea ice extent in the Antarctic has been on the increase. No doubt the dearth of press coverage stems from the IPCC treatment of this topic."
## [616] "Reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index shows there is nothing unusual, unnatural, or unprecedented with regard to 20th century drought"
## [617] "Changes in global sea level is an issue of much controversy. In the Kattegatt Sea, the glacial isostatic component factor is well established and the axis of tilting has remained stable for the last 8,000 years. At the point of zero regional crustal movements, there are three tide gauges indicating a present rise in sea level of 0.8 to 0.9 mm/yr for the last 125 years. This value provides a firm record of the regional eustatic rise in sea level in this part of the globe."
## [618] "And while global warming alarmists continue to say 2010 or the U.S. summer of 2012 was the hottest on record, actual data reveal that there is only a few hundredths of a degree Fahrenheit difference between these and other alleged hottest years, such as 2005. The 1930s still reign supreme as the hottest in American history."
## [619] "The 1880s was also the second busiest decade for US hurricane strikes (22 hurricanes, five major hurricanes) topped only by the 1940s (24 hurricanes, 10 major hurricanes) yet both decades were supposedly very cool, with plummeting temperatures."
## [620] "The 5-year (60-month) running mean global temperature hints at a slowdown in the global warming rate during the past few years."
## [621] "While FOE tries to scare people with references to \"extreme weather disasters,\" Idso and Taylor pointed to the fact that \"Global hurricane frequency is undergoing a long-term decline, with global hurricane and tropical storm activity at record lows during the past several years The United States is benefitting from the longest period in recorded history without a major hurricane strike. Tornado activity is in long-term decline, with major tornado strikes (F3 or higher) showing a remarkable decline in recent decades.\""
## [622] "The IPCC has decided to discount the global warming standstill since 1997 asirrelevant and has deleted from its final document its original acknowledgement (in its 7 June draft) that climate models have failed toreproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last10-15 years."
## [623] "Inferentially, the bureaucrats have decided they can no longer pretend I was wrong to say there has been no global warming for 16 years. This one cannot be squeezed back into the bottle. So they have decided to focus on n years without warming so that, as soon as an uptick in temperature brings the period without warming to an end, they can neatly overlook the fact that what really matters is the growing, and now acutely embarrassing, discrepancy between predicted and observed long-term warming rates."
## [624] "Climate experts claim that hot days in the US are becoming more common due to increased CO2, but the data shows the exact opposite. Through June 15, hot days peaked in 1911 and were much more common prior to 1960."
## [625] "I raked Rahmstorf and company over the coals on this point. I ran their own model with the corrected data from their own source (Church and White) and published the results online. The result: vastly lower sea level projections for the 21 st century. Their response: silence."
## [626] "Figure 6: Sea level rise around Tasmania over the last 200 years. Sea level rise slowed down during the second half of the 20th century. Source of diagram: Gehrels et al. (2012) ."
## [627] "If you input 1996-2010, the temperature is flat-lined, so the cooling started at least in 1997 in the U.S., and almost certainly everywhere else as well. And, the later you put the end date, the more pronounced is the downward, cooling slant of the temperature line."
## [628] "There are several peaks in the graph. Since 1998 the temperature has neither risen nor fallen, because last year was tied with 1998 for top temperature. Its the same now as it was 12 years ago!"
## [629] "Torinesi et al . report that, on average over the last 20 years, \"the cumulated product of the surface area affected by melting and the duration of the melting event, called cumulative melting surface ... has decreased by 1.8% 1% per year, a result that is consistent with a mean January cooling of the continent recently identified from infrared satellite data.\" Putting this finding in perspective, they note that \"the surface affected by melt decreases over time, from about 1.6 x 10 6 km 2 at the beginning to about 1.0 x 10 6 km 2 at the end of the period (i.e., from 11.4% to 7.2% of the total continental surface).\" In addition, they say that \"no region shows any significant increase, except possibly the peninsula for the mean melt duration.\" What it means"
## [630] "If current patterns continue for the next six weeks, a lot of 1-2 ice will become MYI in mid-September, and we will once again see an increase in MYI as we have every year since 2008. It appears that there may be a large increase in 3+ year old ice."
## [631] "Although the four data sets employed in this study all show short-term accelerations in sea level rise near the end of the 20th century, the century as a whole was one of decelerating sea level rise, which is not exactly in harmony with the climate-alarmist contention that the 20th century experienced a warming that rose at a rate and to a height that were both unprecedented over the past millennium or more. However, the Australasian records do harmonize with those of the United States -- and much of the rest of the world -- as demonstrated by the recent analysis of Houston and Dean (2011), where slight decelerations also rule the century."
## [632] "Historically, there have been many tornado outbreaks that occurred well before climate change was on anyone??s radar. Here??s a few:"
## [633] "This past summer was one of the coolest on record in the US. There is no drought in the midwest, and only a complete imbecile would believe that cold is caused by heat."
## [634] "Remember too, that the tropics are relatively stable as far as temperatures go so if the worlds atmosphere cools, the potential energy transfer from tropics to poles increases. On the other hand, if the atmosphere is warmer than has historically been the case, then you can expect reduced wind speeds and less extreme precipitation events. If nothing else, JunkScience.coms Global Thermometer might turn out to be useful as a sell signal for wind energy stocks."
## [635] "In the past century the sea level has risen twenty centimetres. There is no evidence for accelerated sea-level rise. It is my opinion that there is no need for drastic measures. Fortunately, the time rate of climate change is slow compared to the life span of the defense structures along our coast. There is enough time for adaptation."
## [636] "Does anyone think that Kerry Emanuel and Judith Curry each have an obligation to issue a report in Nature and/or Science on the 2006 hurricane season? Corporations can??t just issue financial statements when they have good years; they have to issue reports in bad years. And let there be no doubt ??? 2006 was a ???bad?? year for hurricane alarmists. I??ve collated all the storm track data to date. Storm and hurricane days are each off 30%; cat 3+ days by 50% and cat 4+ days by 54%. Hurricane days were at their lowest levels since 1989 and storm days at their lowest levels since Dvorak measurements were introduced in the Pacific in 1987. To my knowledge, this is the first quantitative report of these 2006 hurricane results. Emanuel had something in print using 2005 hurricane data in December 2005 (Reply to Landsea). What??s the over/under on when Emanuel and/or Webster/Curry will report on 2006 results in peer reviewed literature?"
## [637] "The increasing dollar cost of storm and other weather-related catastrophic insurance losses, erroneously cited as proof of increases in weather extremes in recent years, can be accounted for by the rise in property values, development and population, especially in hurricane-prone areas because hurricane losses dominate the weather catastrophe costs. A comparison over time of the average economic impact of storms can be made by adjusting property losses to current values. This calculation shows that the cost per large storm, adjusted for current conditions, has varied substantially from one decade to another, but that recent storm damage is no higher than in some earlier decades.30 Recent storm losses have not been exacerbated by increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide."
## [638] "The main purpose of the interview was to establish if the government thought the recent and continuing pause in global temperatures meant it should re-think its policies in response to global warming."
## [639] "At the U.N. climate conference in Lima, Peru, in December, attendees were told that their countries should cut carbon emissions to avoid future damage from storms like typhoon Hagupit, which hit the Philippines during the conference, killing at least 21 people and forcing more than a million into shelters. Yet the trend for landfalling typhoons around the Philippines has actually declined since 1950, according to a study published in 2012 by the American Meteorological Societys Journal of Climate. Again, were told that things are worse than ever, but the facts dont support this."
## [640] "Axel Morner concludes that Australian government claims of a 1 meter sea level rise by 2100 are greatly exaggerated, finding instead that sea levels are rising around Australia and globally at a rate of only 1.5 mm/year. This would imply a sea level change of only 0.13 meters or 5 inches by 2100. Dr. Morner also finds no evidence of any acceleration in sea level rise around Australia or globally."
## [641] "As you can see, the sea level rise rate widely varied during the 20th century. It reached about 4 mm/yeararound 1911, and again in the 1930s, 1950s and around 1980.It was much lower in the 1920s, 1940s, 1960s and mid-1980s."
## [642] "??? The GRACE gravitational-anomaly satellites are able to measure ocean mass, from which sea-level change can be directly calculated. The GRACE data show that sea level fell slightly from 2002-2007."
## [643] "The second article of interest is by a pair of scientists with the School of Earth Sciences at Australias University of Melbourne. Davis and Walsh dare to title the piece Southeast Australian thunderstorms: Are they increasing in frequency? The pair collected thunderstorm data for stations in southeastern Australia, and indeed, they conclude that There has been a significant increase in the number of thunderdays from 1941-2004 which must come as terrific news to the global warming crowd. However, the authors note but much of this increase may have been a result of changes in observing practices in the mid 1950s."
## [644] "Fred Dardick reported in 2011, We are in the midst of the convergence of three major solar, ocean, and atmospheric cycles, all heading in the direction of global cooling. Last year the Southern Hemisphere experienced its coldest winter in 50 years and Europe just went through two particularly cold winters in a row; the cooling has just begun. The likelihood of a repeat of the great frost of 1709 is growing every day. (6)"
## [645] "Despite a balmy February winter that many in the U.S. would consider a global warming benefit, the overall cooling trend during the last 15 years persists."
## [646] "In an attempt to answer these important questions, Wahl et al ., as they describe it, \"investigated sea level changes in the North Sea region based on 30 tide gauge records and 19 years of altimetry data.\" Based on their analysis of all the available data, the four researchers determined that \"linear long-term trends in the Inner North Sea (1.6 mm/yr) are similar to global trends (1.7 mm/yr) but smaller in the English Channel (1.2 mm/yr).\" And they report that \"although the recent rates of sea level rise were high, there is no evidence yet that sea level rise has accelerated over the last decades in the North Sea region.\""
## [647] "Sorry climate propagandists, floods are not increasing. Check out the facts at Climate Depot."
## [648] "According to NOAAs new publication, Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, there is no discernible connection between global warming and 2013 extreme weather events such as the California drought, Colorado floods, the UKs exceptionally cold spring, a South Dakota blizzard, Central Europe floods, a northwestern Europe cyclone, and exceptional snowfall in Europes Pyrenees Mountains."
## [649] "has found that recent floods associated with the Indian monsoon are not linked to global warming, and that such events have occurred throughout the 200 year history of the monsoon."
## [650] "Since just before the start of the 21st century, the Earths average global surface temperature has failed to rise despite soaring levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases and years of dire warnings from environmental advocates."
## [651] "Arctic sea ice extent hasnt changed for several days, and remains just below the 2006 minimum."
## [652] "Antarctic sea ice underestimated by 50%."
## [653] "They published this graph, which shows that sea level rise has not accelerated since the 19th century. I added the red trend line."
## [654] "Looks like a cooling trend see plot in antarctic-sea-ice-sets-new-high-in-may"
## [655] "Record temperatures hot and cold are set every day around the world; that's the nature of records. Statistically, any given place will see four record high temperatures set every year. There is evidence that daytime high temperatures are staying about the same as for the last few decades, but nighttime lows are gradually rising. Global warming might be more properly called, \"Global less cooling.\""
## [656] "It is generally accepted that sea levels increased during the 20thC at a rate of about 185mm or about 7. Furthermore studies suggest that there was no acceleration in this rate during that time. One of the best known studies was by Bruce Douglas , who produced the above graph from Tide Gauge records for 23 geologically stable sites."
## [657] "In the next 50 years there would be no temperature increase, but rather a slight temperature decrease is expected. In the decades before and after the year 2300 a powerful temperature drop could occur because both the 230-year cycle and 100-year cycle would be dropping rapidly together in parallel."
## [658] "Professor Niklas Mrner, who was told in 2004 by a sea-level specialist at the University of Colorado that the data from the TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason satellites were tilted to create an artificial impression of a rate of sea-level rise that is not in fact occurring, says his central estimate is that sea level will rise this century by 5 15cm, or 2 6 inches. Spencer 6, Nuccitelli 0."
## [659] "So has global temperature not increased? It has not, if by not increased we meanetc., etc."
## [660] "I fear that we??re headed into such a period of great cooling and repetitive catastrophic flooding right now."
## [661] "Pauses as long as 15 years are rare in the simulations, and we expect that warming will resume in the next few years, the Hadley Centre group writes. Researchers agree that no sort of natural variability can hold off greenhouse warming much longer."
## [662] "The above chart plots the NOAA/NCDC U.S. dataset decade-end temperature changes, including the change over the 10-year period ending 2013. Stating the perfectly obvious, the infamous consensus experts' \"unequivocal\" warming is anything but. In spite of massive human CO2 emissions, a recent state of cooling changes dominate in the U.S. (see last two blue columns)."
## [663] "Lord Monckton said: ?The entire monthly satellite temperature record since January 1979 is 422 months long. For almost the entire second half of the record ? 210 months ? there has been no global warming.?"
## [664] "Climate change also had a role in Spains drought and torrential New Zealand rains, though natural weather variation was a leading culprit in each case, and no strong connection was found in other prominent 2012 weather events such as the US drought."
## [665] "71% Of The US Has Been Below Normal Temperature Over The Past Year"
## [666] "Whilst there is a general hysteria of global warming, increasing temperature and rising sea level, new records from Antarctica indicate the opposite: a significant increase in the extent of sea ice over the last 30 years (in the order of 1 million square km) and a decrease in sea surface temperature south of Lat. 60S (in the order of 0.4 C)."
## [667] "Evidence is quickly mounting against the idea that Antarctic melt will contribute to global sea level rise during the 21st century. In fact, the real debate might be concerning the degree to which an increase in mass balance on Antarctica will counterbalance melt elsewhere across Earth."
## [668] "No hurricanes have made landfall in the US for over two years. In 1933, five hurricanes struck the US."
## [669] "For example, a very recently discussed paper by German and Russian climatologists claims that it's normal for the climate to oscillate in the observed way at this place of the glaciation cycle, before a new ice age arrives: Register , paper ."
## [670] "The US Midwest is having its coolest summer, after its second coldest winter on record. During the winter of 1932, the average temperature was above freezing."
## [671] "Climate data show us that, while areas near the edge of the Antarctic continent have briefly reached above the melting point of snow and ice, it is rare and only during summer months, for temperatures to exceed the melting point of snow and ice."
## [672] "Additionally, Southern Hemisphere Sea Ice Area Anomaly has been above the 1979 ??? 2008 Average for the last two years:"
## [673] "Statistically there has been no change in the average annual temperature of the globe since 1997 meaning that the standstill is now 16 years. The latest five-year average of Hadcrut3 and Hadcrut4 data shows a decline for the first time. Can anyone now have any doubt that the recent warming standstill is a real event of crucial climatic importance? ???David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 24 January 2013"
## [674] "2. Although there was a significant number (84) of violent tornadoes in 2011 (which generated responses like this in the Washington Post that claimed a link to climate change), there were actually more violent tornadoes in both 1957 (99) and 1965 (98)."
## [675] "There is no historical trend in either the frequency or intensity of hurricanes, as Roger Pielke Jr. has pointed out in academic publications. And yet global warming has been blamed for specific storms, such as Hurricane Katrina, in a manner that is frankly antithetical to the principles of science."
## [676] "Study after study shows no increase in extreme weather events over the past century. Or even in the last decade. That changed in the last five years when activists realized you cant raise money without a good dose of fear."
## [677] "UPDATE : In addition, a recent paper published in the Journal of Glaciology finds that ice accumulation of the interior of Greenland has increased 10% over the past 52 years, offsetting runoff from some outlet glaciers along the periphery. According to the authors, \"this implies that the increased water vapor capacity of warmer air is increasing accumulation in the interior of Greenland.\""
## [678] "Of course, the authors ignore the fact that there has been no warming for at least a decade - while anthropogenic greenhouse gases have been increasing more rapidly. According to Philip Jones, the IPCC's guru on Global Temperatures, there hasn't been any significant global warming for 17 years!"
## [679] "By August 23rd, 2006, we have seen 4 storms: Alberto, Beryl, Chris, Debby. Neither of them has been a hurricane - not even a small hurricane. Debby is the first one that at least has a chance to become a minimal hurricane on Sunday or so - but be sure that it won't become one. 2006 is not only milder than 2005 but also than 2004, 2003, and most other years. Right now, in the middle of the season, 2006 is below the average. December 2006 update : Indeed, it seems that the number of tropical storms (9) as well as hurricanes (5) as well as (minimal) major hurricanes (2) will stay below the average of 1950-2000. The season officially ended at the end of November. The absence of any tropical storms from the early October can be partially explained by a new El Nino."
## [680] "But is the Pause perhaps caused by the fact that CO2 emissions have not been rising anything like as fast as the IPCCs business-as-usual Scenario A prediction in 1990? No: CO2 emissions have risen rather above the Scenario-A prediction (Fig. T3)."
## [681] "The reconstructions, in the words of the authors, \"show clear evidence of multi-year to decadal variations in spring precipitation.\" Nevertheless, they report that \"dry periods of 1-2 years were well distributed throughout the record\" and that the same was largely true of similar wet periods. With respect to more extreme events, the period preceding the Industrial Revolution stood out. They say, for example, that \"all of the wettest 5-year periods occurred prior to 1756.\" Likewise, the longest period of reconstructed spring drought was the four-year period 1476-79, while the single driest spring was 1746. What it means"
## [682] "It has now been seven years since a major hurricane hit the US, the longest period since the Civil War and seven years since our friends started blaming every single weather event on global warming."
## [683] "Summer is rapidly winding down in Antarctica, and the continent is surrounded by record sea ice."
## [684] "This is not true. There are over 6 million Americans alive today who experienced summers as long and hot, with great periods of extreme heat in the mid-1930s, when the Palmer Drought Index was the same as current periods, and tens of millions more who saw the mid-70s, when drought conditions were almost as high. Drought is a cyclical event that is experienced throughout large sections of the United States and has done so since pre-historical times."
## [685] "Under the bottom line: sea level risehas been pretty much constant over the last 80 years. Using the same rate, sea level can be projected to rise only 20 30 cm by the year 2100."
## [686] "Met Office, March 2009: Mean temperatures over the UK were 1.1 C below the 1971-2000 average during December, 0.5 C below average during January and 0.2 C above average during February. The UK mean temperature for the winter was 3.2 C, which is 0.5 C below average, making it the coldest winter since 1996/97 (also 3.2 C)."
## [687] "However since the year 2000 a change has occurred: the CET record shows a marked reduction from its high levels loosing all the gains that it has made since 1850, even though at the same time CO2 levels have escalated further to ~400ppm v ."
## [688] "Interestingly on the sixth page of this document , the Bureau both makes the point that 2013 was the hottest year on record for Queensland, while conceding that the period 2002-2013 shows short-term cooling."
## [689] "Also, by the way, global hurricane activity, measured in total energy (Accumulated Cyclone Energy), is actually at a low not encountered since the 1970s . In fact, the U.S. is currently experiencing the longest absence of severe landfall hurricanes in over a century. Wilma, the last Category 3 or stronger storm, occurred more than seven years ago."
## [690] "The period from January 2001 to May 2013 is now 149-months long. Refer to the following graph of running 149-month trends from January 1880 to May 2013, using the NCDC global temperature anomaly product. The last data point in the graph is the linear trend (in deg C per decade) from January 2001 to the current month. It is slightly negative. That, of course, indicates global surface temperatures have not warmed during the most recent 149-month period. Working back in time, the data point immediately before the last one represents the linear trend for the 149-month period of December 2000 to April 2013, and the data point before it shows the trend in deg C per decade for November 2000 to March 2013, and so on."
## [691] "RSL reflects the actual sea levels, as measured by tide gauges, while the ASL takes out the effect of sinking land. As can be seen, apart from the anomaly at Cambridge, the other stations show ASL of 1.41mm/yr or less, about 5 inches/century. This is a far cry from the headline figures shown for Baltimore of 12 inches/century."
## [692] "(Excerpts) ??? Antarctic sea ice reached record high levels this year. Antarctic sea ice extent broke 20 million kilometers for the first time since satellite recordings began."
## [693] "Tide gauge data for the 20th century indicates that the average sea level rise rate was 1.8 mm/year. Satellite data from 1993 to present indicates a sea level rise rate of about 3 mm/year. This is part 3 of a series of posts looking for the acceleration necessary to reconcile those two facts"
## [694] "Unfortunately for Hansen and McKibben as with so many previous prophets of the end of the world, reality isn't cooperating with their chiliastic fantasies. Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 have increased by 4 per cent since the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated in 1997, but the global mean temperature has been flat since 1999. What they must have are some big disasters -- and soon."
## [695] "The slope is flat since November 1996 or 16 years and 11 months. (goes to September) RSS is 203/204 or 99.5% of the way to Ben Santers 17 years."
## [696] "Anders is having a discussion about Ed and Tamsins nature article on the pause in global warming."
## [697] "Over the past three days, the overheated Arctic has been gaining sea ice at a rate of one Manhattan area every 30 seconds. Green below shows the three day gain in ice."
## [698] "As everyone knows, the weather is becoming more extreme with increasing numbers of blizzards, hurricanes, droughts and other calamities caused by global warming, right? Well, while the media tends to hype these severe weather events as unusual and increasing in frequency, a new study by the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project reveals otherwise. As reported in the Wall Street Journal, this project, which involved sophisticated supercomputers, created a dataset of global atmospheric conditions dating back to 1891. And what did they find? Well, contrary to what global warming proponents have been saying, they found absolutely no evidence of more extreme weather patterns occurring over that entire period."
## [699] "America as a whole awoke to the coldest it has been in November since 1976 38 years ago. The Lower-48 or CONUS spatially average temperature plummeted overnight to only 20F typical of mid-winter not November 18th!"
## [700] "Experts say that hurricanes are getting more intense due to increasing CO2. At some point they may even become as intense as they were 75 years ago, when CO2 was 310 ppm."
## [701] "Other new studies have debunked many of the dubious claims made by the global warming alarmists. For example, the claim that droughts would be more frequent, severe and wide ranging during global warming, has now being exposed as fallacious. A new paper in Geophysical Research Letters authored by Konstantinos Andreadis and Dennis Lettenmaier finds droughts in the U.S. becoming ???shorter, less frequent and cover a small portion of the country over the last century.?? www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2006/10/13/where-are-the-droughts"
## [702] "Global sea ice area is also above normal, as it has been for much of the year."
## [703] "We can expect the onset of a deep bicentennial minimum of total solar irradiance (TSI) in approximately 204211 and the 19th deep minimum of global temperature in the past 7500 years in 205511. After the maximum of solar cycle 24, from approximately 2014 we can expect the start of deep cooling with a Little Ice Age in 205511. Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, Russian Academy of Science, 1 February 2012"
## [704] "Since the ice extent dropped to a record level in 2007, heavy snowfall, much more abundant than normal were observed in vast areas of North America, continental Europe and China, according to the article, published on February 27."
## [705] "In terms of overall landfast sea ice extent across the entire East Antarctic region (from 10??W to 172??E), as the five Australian researchers describe it, \"there has been a statistically significant increase (at the 99% confidence level) of 1.43 0.3% per year,\" and they say that the regional short-term trends for different sectors of the coast \"broadly agree with the longer-term (1979-2008) trend in overall sea ice (comprising both pack ice and fast ice) extent/area (e.g., Cavalieri and Parkinson, 2008; Comiso, 2009).\""
## [706] "Sea ice area is above normal in the Beaufort Sea, and unprecedented below freezing temperatures are forecast for most of the rest of the July."
## [707] "More evidence backing up Ball?s position comes from the polar regions. New reports from the National Snow and Ice Data Center suggest Antarctic ice levels are at record highs. Ball said the southern hemisphere has been cooling for some time. He believes the clinching evidence comes from the Arctic Circle."
## [708] "This April ??? 2013 ??? is seeing avg. temps at -4.8C! Right now we are a whopping 10 degrees below normal for this time of the year!"
## [709] "But considering how much attention would have been lavished on a comparable run of hot weather or on a warming trend that was plainly accelerating, shouldnt the recent cold phenomena and the absence of any global warming during the past 10 years be getting a little more notice? Isnt it possible that the most apocalyptic voices of global-warming alarmism might not be the only ones worth listening to?"
## [710] "Above: Danish Meteorological Institute Arctic Sea Ice Extent 30% or greater. Note that while this graph shows 30% concentration at the cutoff point, it is valuable to compare."
## [711] "The Independent , July 2013 Some people call it a slow-down, some call it a hiatus, some people call it a pause. The global average surface temperature has not increased substantially over the last 10 to 15 years, - Reading University, Scientist Rowan Sutton"
## [712] "Many of the protesters who endured the cold to chant \"Stop Global Warming!\" said they didn't think the snowfall conflicted with their message. Davey Rogner, a 22 year old student at the University of Maryland College Park, beat on an African Djembe drum to rev up the crowd. He said the snow was a \"gift\" to remind eveyone about how rarely Maryland has been blanketed with beautiful white in recent years as temperatures have increased."
## [713] "While it is true that this index has risen from a low point around 1970, it is also clear that it merely returned to values observed in the early 20th century. Did greenhouse gases raise the extremes index in the early 20th century? Obviously not."
## [714] "Static jet streams induced near-record high temperatures in parts of the United States and Russia, but extreme cold pummeled Seattle, England and much of the Southern Hemisphere. Perhaps Al Gore, Michael Mann and Rajendra Pachauri can turn this hodgepodge into \"catastrophic climate change,\" but most folks understand it as Mother Nature and weather."
## [715] "\"Global warming is nowhere to be found,\" said David Deming, a geophysicist at the University of Colorado, in a January 16 commentary in The Washington Times. \"As frigid conditions settled over the nation, global-warming alarmists went into full denial mode,\" adding that \"weather extremes also seem to bring out the lunatic fringe.\" That is why the public is being told that cold weather has been caused by global warming!"
## [716] "The two sceptics highlighted the ongoing hiatus in global warming, which has seen temperatures around the world remain basically the same for more than 15 years, following noticeable warming in the 1980s and early 1990s."
## [717] "As the so called pause in global warming continues, space scientists may be giving climate scientists some pause for thought."
## [718] "But climate change sceptics do not claim there has been recent global warming. They claim there has been a levelling off, or fall in temperatures, over the last 10 years since the 1998 El Nino-driven peak."
## [719] "KIEV, Feb 9 (Reuters) A fierce cold spell has killed most of the winter barley and winter rapeseed crops and seriously damaged wheat in Ukraines eastern and southern regions, while threatening winter crops and slowing exports in Russia."
## [720] "Given that the climate debate is about minuscule fractions of a degree, that measurement uncertainty is too large for comfort. It is one reason why we are able to say that over the past couple of decades the measured global warming is statistically indistinguishable from zero."
## [721] "Moreover, Abdussamatovs analysis of sun activity data has led him to conclude that the Earth is entering a prolonged cooling phase, because sunspot activity is currently in a phase regarded as a minimum."
## [722] "December 2010 is \"almost certain\" to be the coldest since records began in 1910, according to the Met Office. ?The Independent, 18 December 2010"
## [723] "The Colorado part of that article has the same end point: giant storms in Colorado are not increasing or decreasing; out in the Rockies it??s all el Nio. More at:"
## [724] "As the great bulk of Antarctica continues to cool , so too does the amount of sea ice that surrounds the continent continue to increase, both of which observations provide little justification (actually, none at all) for the climate-alarmist claim that CO 2 -induced global warming is a reality, especially when most climate models predict it should be most evident in earth's polar regions, where it obviously is nowhere to be seen ."
## [725] "Jung replies that an evaluation indeed shows that there has been no real increase in storms over the past years. More the contrary is the case ."
## [726] "Global warming computer models confounded as Antarctic sea ice hits new record high with 2.1million square miles more than is usual for time of year"
## [727] "The animation below shows the huge increase in old/thick ice in the Beaufort Sea over the past twoyears. If this trend continues, ice will be back to 1980s levels in three or four years."
## [728] "The warming we have had the last 100 years is so small that, if we didnt have meteorologists and climatologists to measure it, we wouldnt have noticed it at all."
## [729] "Nature here today has a commentary acknowledging that the warming pause is real and that it has grown into a full blown trend it is no longer just noise ! Sixteen years into the mysterious global-warming hiatus, scientists are piecing together an explanation ."
## [730] "Record low ice extent, record heat, record thin ice, hottest year ever. No doubt all the ice will be gone this summer."
## [731] "Europe may have to be buried under a kilometer thick sheet of ice before people wake up to the hoax of global warming."
## [732] "The only sensible precaution that you can take in such a situation is to plan for a continuation of the present climate trend, and recognize and plan also for reasonable bounds of future climate variability. As the temperature trend for ten years now has been one of cooling, since the unusually warm El Nino year of 1998, this requires a precautionary response to cooling rather than warming."
## [733] "The evidence of a lull in global warming casts doubt on the scientific consensus the U.N. asserts exists among scientists worldwide regarding whether or not the utilization of carbon-based fuels by humans is the cause of rising levels of carbon dioxide measured in the earths atmosphere."
## [734] "So, in total, during 40 out of the 62 years there has been a cooling trend. They are comparing a statistically insignificant amount of warming since 1998, with three decades of cooling. The result is to make this small trend sound much more significant than it is."
## [735] "If this weather forecast showing sub-freezing temperatures in the Beaufort Sea is correct, alarmists are in a world of hurt."
## [736] "The study found that though there are large regional fluctuations in crop-hail losses, ???No statistically significant long-term trend of decrease or increase in crop-hail loss costs exists.?? For weather-caused insured property losses the study found that the increased weather-related losses that have occurred since 1950 ???were directly related to population growth.?? Other studies have confirmed this result."
## [737] "Christy and Spencer are best known for their work with the satellite temperature record, which is a record of tropospheric temperatures. They discussed the importance of that data. The satellite data, according to Spencer, should be the most robust data if global warming occurs. The global warming signal should be 30 percent higher in the satellite data than in the surface temperature data. Yet the satellites record a slight cooling trend over the last 20 years."
## [738] "If they did, they would know that Oregon has been cooling over the last 25 years and has dropped over two degrees during the last seven years. They would also know that 2008, 2009 and (soon) 2010 are three of the five coldest years in the last quarter century."
## [739] "For example, 18 years of sea level measurements from satellites suggested a trend of 3.2 mm per year until a drop in 2010, attributed to a shift from El Nio to La Nia, neither event accepted by the IPCC as a cause of climate change. The average has been about 3 mm per year, and may become less. This works out to an expected rise, based on observations, of no more than about 300 mm in 100 years ??? by 2100. Yet, several studies presented at the latest American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) Conference emphasize that sea level will rise by about 1000 mm per century ??? one meter."
## [740] "He is culpably silent on Dr. Ryan Maues Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, which shows that since 2005 the combined frequency, intensity, and duration of all tropical cyclones, hurricanes, and typhoons worldwide, expressed as a 24-month running sum, shows the least activity in the entire satellite record. Spencer 4, Nuccitelli 0."
## [741] "The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century."
## [742] "Better to look at the correct graph before making ridiculous comments. Sea level has risen 15 metres during the last 8,000 years. Over the last eight years it has hardly risen at all."
## [743] "II. Multi-decadal oscillations plus trend hypothesis: 20th century climate variability/change is explained by the large multidecadal oscillations (e.g NAO, PDO, AMO) with a superimposed trend of external forcing (AGW warming). The implications for temperature change in the 21st century is relatively constant temperatures for the next several decades, or possible cooling associated with solar. Challenges: separating forced from unforced changes in the observed time series, lack of predictability of the multidecadal oscillations."
## [744] "Climate dynamics of clouds: Could changes in cloud distribution or optical properties contribute to the global surface temperature hiatus? How do cloud patterns (and TOA and surface radiative fluxes) change with shifts in in atmospheric circulation and teleconnection regimes (e.g. AO, NAO, PDO)? How do feedbacks between clouds, surface temperature, and atmospheric thermodynamics/circulations interact with global warming and the atmospheric circulation and teleconnection regimes?"
## [745] "Athumani Juma doesn??t believe it. A guide who??s been hiking the mountain for the past seven years, he laughed when he was asked about the likelihood that Kilimanjaro??s snowcap would disappear soon. The glaciers, he claimed, no longer are shrinking, but growing."
## [746] "The SSRC believes as long as the Sun continues its solar hibernation (a once every 206 year cold climate event) that we are on the precipice of a long term drop in global temperatures. It is entirely possible that the decades-long period of record global agricultural output that our world has enjoyed will soon be over, perhaps for many decades."
## [747] "The great man-made global warming debate is entering an interesting phase, as early snow blankets much of Britain. If this winter is anything like as cold and long as last year??s, my postbag will soon be bulging with cries for help."
## [748] "According to the most bloated alarmist numbers, sea level is currently rising 3 mm/year.But from 1930 to 1948, sea level rose almost 9 mm/ year."
## [749] "In addition, ignore the fact that there have been more all-time U.S. cold records than heat records since the 1940s. And don't believe your lyin' eyes that tell you regarding that \"extreme weather\" we've been warned about that no category 3-5 hurricanes have struck the U.S. coast since October 2005, setting a century-long record lull since 1900."
## [750] "Solar physicists from several major US sun-watching labs announced last year that they believe based on decades-long trends of declining sunspot activity and other indicators that the current sunspot cycle may be the last one for a long time, and that a \"Maunder Minimum\" like that seen in the 17th and 18th centuries is on the cards. The sunspot-less Maunder Minimum was accompanied by a so-called \"Little Ice Age\" of cold winters and ice-skating on the Thames."
## [751] "The current 11-year peak in solar action is the weakest seen for a long time, and it may presage a lengthy quiet period. Previously, historical records suggest that such periods have been accompanied by chilly conditions on Earth."
## [752] "An unseasonably cold weather system will move through the Northern Rockies tonight into Tuesday morning. Snow levels are expected to drop to around 6000 feet, leading to light snow accumulations over the higher terrain. Those planning to venture into the back country should be prepared for light snow and temperatures 15 to 20 degrees below normal."
## [753] "Heat waves occurred with high frequency in the 1930s, and these remain the most severe heat waves in the U.S. historical record (see Figure 1). Many years of intense drought (the Dust Bowl) contributed to these heat waves by depleting soil moisture and reducing the moderating effects of evaporation."
## [754] "Much like the U.S. Historical Climatology Network database (see our Temperature Record of the Week feature), these temperature reconstructions derived from limnological data from pristine mountain lakes in Europe support the tenet of our Editorial of 1 July 2000 , i.e., that \"there has been no global warming for the past 70 years,\" in that it is no warmer now in these locations than it was in the 1930s and 40s."
## [755] "Last winter they blamed all the cold and snow on missing Arctic ice. With Arctic ice extent now close to the highest in a decade, what lies will the experts fabricate for the cold weather in the coming winter?"
## [756] "Last year, in the wake of the Queensland floods, Professor Steffen said the event was probably not the result of climate change but a natural part of climate variability. The floods across eastern Australia in 2010 and early 2011 were the consequence of a very strong La Nina event and not the result of climate change, he argued at the time."
## [757] "CO2 Science Even in the face of a warming trend that climate alarmists describe as having been unprecedented over the past one to two millennia, their predictions of more frequent and more severe concomitant drought have not been realized."
## [758] "There has been no appreciable warming since 1998, as can be seen in the official forecast from the Met Office, the United Kingdoms national weather service , which the agency released on Christmas Eve. Presumably, the British governments climate scientists didnt want anyone to notice they had lowered their forecast from previous years, with temperatures in 2020 predicted to be no warmer than they were in the late 1990s. Websites such as Climate Depot and Watts Up With That had long ago reported the same phenomenon, only to be ridiculed by the climate-change establishment. It turns out these climate realists were right all along."
## [759] "With increased national Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the true variability and trend in tornado frequency in the U.S., the total number of strong to violent tornadoes (EF3 to EF5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These are the tornadoes that would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports. The bar chart below indicates there has been little trend in the frequency of the strongest tornadoes over the past 55 years."
## [760] "Of course she has no evidence to back up this valueless claim, which comes from the United Nations, but in fact previous centuries have shown considerable mortality from extreme weather events long before carbon dioxide became flavour of the month."
## [761] "Interestingly, however, the BBC recently did a report detailing concerns that we may be entering another Little Ice Age. As the sun remains conveniently out of the equation of global warming proponents, this is a rather eye-popping development."
## [762] "Some climate scientists, such as Professor Phil Jones, director of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, last week dismissed the significance of the plateau, saying that 15 or 16 years is too short a period from which to draw conclusions."
## [763] "Onward to superstorms. Roy Spencer had said there has been no increase in superstorms, which happen every year. Sandy was unusual only in that it happened over a built-up area. Nuccitelli cites Kerry Emanuels paper of 2005 showing an increase in hurricane strength over previous decades."
## [764] "In his blog article he starts by claiming that the stagnant temperature of the last 15 years: is nothing unusual: Also during the 20th century there were periods of stagnation, and even cooling. Even climate models show such behaviour also for the future. So they do not contradict the long-term global temperatures ."
## [765] "In fact, the actual temperature development has been slipping into the extreme lower parts of the predictions range. Then, couple that with NASAs claim of low sunspot numbers for several decades to come, and youll know what to expect in the future."
## [766] "Most of the warming took place in the northern extra-tropics at latitudes between 25N and 90N. This is consistent with the expectations one would have with the effects of greenhouse gases. However, lets take a look at the temperature series of the northern hemisphere extra-tropic region. Here we also see a pause since about the year 2000."
## [767] "For both CT data and Jeff Ids NSIDC data presentation we see that its in fact it is mostly the years 2005, 2006 and 2007 that shows a large dip in global sea ice extent. Take away those years, and where is the decadal declining trend?"
## [768] "Tornadoes have been at a record low for the last two years, and US hurricanes are close to a record low. This has greatly reduced disaster costs."
## [769] "The dry period in the 1960s, and again in the 1970s is evident, but the longer view shows that there is nothing unusual about recent years."
## [770] "roughts have, for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, less severe, and cover a smaller portion of the country over the last century."
## [771] "Think about that! The fifth largest ice field in the entire Western Hemisphere is growing ,, and no one is bothering to report it."
## [772] "Northern hemisphere winter snow extent has been steadily increasing to record levels since the geniusesat the UN made their forecast."
## [773] "The data on sea levels are more ambiguous: Sea levels have been rising at a more-or-less constant rate (about 3.3 mm per year) since the early 1990s despite increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. And even that observation rather begs the question, because the end of the little ice age around 1850 has yielded off-and-on warming, and thus some ice melt and thermal expansion of ocean water."
## [774] "Not only did the 3.1 inches of snow in Omaha break the previous May record of 2.0 inches from 1945, but also marked the city??s first measurable snow in 46 years."
## [775] "Easterling and Parmesans paper had also reported, Examination of drought over the 20th century in the United States shows considerable variability, the droughts of the 1930s and 1950s dominating any long-term trend. Recent investigation of longer term U.S. Great Plains drought variability over the past 2000 years with the use of paleo-climatic data suggests that no droughts as intense as those of the 1930s have occurred since the 1700s. However, before the 16th century some droughts appear to have occurred that were of greater spatial and temporal intensity than any of the 20th-century U.S. droughts. 8"
## [776] "With activists and politicians continuing to push draconian energy control schemes even with no net increase in temperature over the past decade, it is ever more important for the public to understand the myths being presented as facts."
## [777] "Northern Hemisphere CO2 levels undoubtedly continued to climb monotonically on an annual scale over the period 1982 2006 and we can reasonably presume was accompanied by no significant attendant global warming since about 2000."
## [778] "Sadly though for Joe, even Greenland has turned exceptionally cold this month. No place left for alarmists to hide."
## [779] "Due to a decline in solar activity and other factors, the Earth is cooling and has been since 1998. And a peer-reviewed study published in April by Nature predicts the world will continue cooling at least through 2015."
## [780] "But then about a week after that study was released Professor Muller was forced to acknowledge that this BEST (Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project) data might also indicate that temperatures have not rise for about 13 years ."
## [781] "Its been a frequent debating point from climate sceptics. Recent cold winters in Britain and Europe, they often say, undermine the case that the world is growing warmer. Scientists have tended to reply that that is to mix up the short-term effects of weather in a particular region with long term climate change, and that the cold winters therefore are of little significance."
## [782] "Longer records show strong evidence for a drought that appears to have been more severe in some areas of central North America than anything we have experienced in the 20th century, including the 1930s drought. Tree-ring records from around North America document episodes of severe drought during the last half of the 16th century. Drought is reconstructed as far east as Jamestown, Virginia, where tree rings reflect several extended periods of drought that coincided with the disappearance of the Roanoke Colonists, and difficult times for the Jamestown colony. These droughts were extremely severe and lasted for three to six years, a long time for such severe drought conditions to persist in this region of North America."
## [783] "A.A. Boretti, an Australian scientist who has studied satellite radar altimeter data covering the past 20 years, discovered that the average rate of sea level rise is just under 3.2 mm a year. That rate would cause a sea levels rise of just under 32 cm (12 inches)by the year 2100, not the 100 cm that is currently being advocated."
## [784] "Antarctica: Something like 80-85% of the worlds ice is in Antarctica. And no one really thinks it is melting or going to melt. In fact, if you look at the marks on the IPCC chart above for the contribution of Antarctic ice to ocean levels, it has a net negative impact, which means the IPCC actually expects the Antarctic ice sheet to grow, not melt."
## [785] "But the drought that began last fall has yet to eclipse the infamous dry spell of the 1950s, a bleak period when the skies stubbornly withheld moisture. It was the states worst drought ever."
## [786] "Giant hurricanes are rare, but they are not new. And they are not increasing. To the contrary. Just go to the website of the National Hurricane Center and check out a table that lists hurricanes by category and decade. The peak for major hurricanes (categories 3,4,5) came in the decades of the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s, when such storms averaged 9 per year. In the 1960s, there were 6 such storms; in the 1970s, 4; in the 1980s, 5; in the 1990s, 5; and for 2001-04, there were 3. Category 4 and 5 storms were also more prevalent in the past than they are now. As for Category 5 storms, there have been only three since the 1850s: in the decades of the 1930s, 1960s and 1990s."
## [787] "What is unusual is that were in a state where the Arctic does NOT completely melt during an interglacial. We can only get an interglacial when it is warm enough to melt the arctic ice. This time we barely got it done. (Look up your Milankovitch for confirmation)."
## [788] "This is the opposite pattern to what would be expected if man-made greenhouse gases were the cause, as even alarmists claim the increase in greenhouse gases has only had a significant effect since 1950. Instead, this new paper demonstrates Eastern Arctic temperatures peaked in the early 20th century, followed by a declining trend to the end of the record in 2000."
## [789] "Arctic ice has recovered from its September minimum so strongly, that extent is now back to the average for 2001-10, according to JAXA. Indeed, based on Version 1, that was withdrawn in September, extent is 11,000 sq km higher than the average in the last decade. ----Paul Homewood, Not A Lot Of People Know That, 2 December 2013"
## [790] "In stanbul, the snow could reach a depth of up to 30 cm (12 inches) throughout the week,Mayor Kadir Topba announced on Tuesday."
## [791] "Indeed. But remove that line and the rest of the op-ed does a tremendous disservice to the anti-regulatory cause, fostering as it does needless climate alarmism, even adopting talking points straight from an Al Gore seminar. \"For the past 20 years, I have seen the ever-so-gradual effects of rising sea levels at our farm on the South Carolina coast.\" Really? Sea levels rise 8 inches per century during the current inter-glacial period (10,000+ years), an historical rate that hasn't increased even according to the UN IPCC, and a pace which actually slowed down during the second half of the 20th Century. He must have quite an eye."
## [792] "Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin"
## [793] "RSS satellite data show only 0.2C global warming since 1990, considerably short of the 1990 IPCC threshold of an additional 0.5C warming to detect an anthropogenic \"enhanced greenhouse effect\""
## [794] "The global temperature report for July 2004 from the University of Alabama in Huntsville Earth System Science Center found that the month was the coolest month in four and a half years and the coolest July in a dozen years."
## [795] "According to New York Times reporter Andrew Revkin, that is. In todays Science section, Revkin writes that there has been a slight increase in sea-ice area around Antarctica in recent decades. But in a Sept. 21 article, Scientists Report Severe Retreat of Arctic Ice , he reported that sea ice around Antarctica has seen unusual winter expansions recently, and this week is near a record high."
## [796] "The National Interagency Fire Center data show an even more striking decline in wildfires when comparing the full 1970-1986 era versus the full 1986-2013 era. True, the number of acres burned each year, according to the National Interagency Fire Center, was approximately 67 percent higher during 1987-2013 than during 1970-1986 (though substantially less than the 600 percent figure claimed by Running), but even this small increase in acres burned merely reflects changes in federal wildfire suppression policy. Barely half as many wildfires occurred each year from 1987-2013 than from 1970-1986."
## [797] "As the adjacent chart depicts, global warming continues to be a non-issue over the last 15 years (180 months through July 2012)."
## [798] "By May 1, snowpack levels in many basins were in uncharted territory, higher than any recorded during the SNOTELera, since the late 1970s. The Tower site near Steamboat Springs, which on average receives more snow than any other SNOTELsite in the Colorado River basin, reached a record 202 of snow on the ground at the end of April, containing a record-tying 71 of water equivalent (Figure 1). Incredibly, as of May 23, the SWEat Tower has increased to 79. In Utah, all three river basins in the Wasatch region (Bear, Weber, and Provo) had record snowpacksfor May 1, all at over 200% of average for the date. On May 23, the Snowbird, Utah SNOTELwas recording 75 of SWE, which is about 180% of the average SWE for that site, which usually occurs in late April."
## [799] "Global sea ice area is second highest on record for the date after 1988, and closing in the #1 spot. Antarctic ice is melting very slowly this summer, due to record cold Antarctic temperatures."
## [800] "This summer we have had confirmation that Arctic ice behaviour has everything to do with wind. During June, winds were circulating clockwise in an inwards spiral, which caused ice extent to diminish and ice concentration to remain high. Around July 1, the patterns reversed and we have seen counterclockwise winds pushing ice away from the pole. As a result, ice area/extent has scarcely changed and instead we see a gradual decline in average ice thickness. The video below shows June/July ice movement and thickness."
## [801] "Had he wished to be objective, he would have noted that, while there was indeed a modest increase in mean global temperature (of about half a degree Centigrade) during the last quarter of the 20th century, so far this century both the UK Met Office and the World Meteorological Office confirm that there has been no further global warming at all."
## [802] "This Tellus trio of articles tells us that tropical cyclones could become less frequent in the future and the jury is still very much out on the question of whether more intense storms will develop in the decades to come. All told, there is still a lot of work to be done, and the debate is anything but over!"
## [803] "The 1990 IPCC report hadsatellite data going back to the early 1970s, which shows that1979 was right at the peak, andtwo million km higher than 1974- meaning that current ice extent is about the same as 1974"
## [804] "Interesting to note that Oklahoma minimum temperatures in 2011 were in the bottom ten,includingthe coldestOklahomatemperature ever recorded, -31F on February 10, 2011."
## [805] "Heres a quandary for the global warming crusade. The scientists state that Despite significantly cooler than modern SSTs in the Atlantic during the latter half of the Little Ice Age, the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls increased during this time. Had these two found an increase in hurricane activity given warmer conditions, they would be paraded right down Broadway. But finding increased activity in colder periods means no parade, but a feature in World Climate Report."
## [806] "One can pull out as many cases of bad weather in the 30s, 40s and 50s as they can now. I still believe the 3 greatest examples of how bad a hurricane can get in relation to latitude are the 1938 hurricane with 186 mph wind gusts at Blue Hill Mass, the 1944 hurricane that destroyed the Atlantic City boardwalk, and Hurricane Donna which gave hurricane force winds to every state from Florida to Maine. The 1944 hurricane had winds 600 miles in diameter and stripped 50% of the screws from a recon plane into it."
## [807] "If you look closely youll observe a few things: 1) There was a record high ice extent in April, 2) the ice indeed melted rapidly in May and June, but 3) the melting rate has slowed down considerably over the last 10 days, averaging only 59,000 sq km something the media forgets to mention."
## [808] "Back in November, when the Met Office was still doing its \"mild winter\" schtick, Corbyn said it would be the coldest for 100 years. Indeed, it was back in May that he first predicted a snowy December, and he put his own money on a white Christmas about a month before the Met Office made any such forecast. He said that the Met Office would be wrong about last year's mythical \"barbecue summer\", and he was vindicated. He was closer to the truth about last winter, too."
## [809] "Instead the temperature fluctuations have been within normal ranges and are due to natural cycles. Indeed the atmosphere has not warmed since 1998 more than 10 years, and the global temperature has even dropped significantly since 2003."
## [810] "Michael Bastasch, writing for The Daily Caller on Saturday, confirmed D'Aleo's and other meteorologist's forecasts. \"The bitter cold that has hit the U.S. East Coast is expected throughout February, and on Jan 28the day of the addressthe Mid-Atlantic region is expected to be hit with freezing cold air that could drive temperatures below zero in big cities among the I-95 corridor.\""
## [811] "We have written so much about the link between climate change and hurricanes (a.k.a., tropical cyclones, TCs) that we sometimes wonder if there could be anything new to report. No sooner than we have such a thought, yet another article on the subject appears in some leading scientific journal. A sentence in the abstract from this new article really caught our eye as we read For the 1981/82 to 2005/06 TC seasons, there are no apparent trends in the total numbers and cyclone days of TCs, nor in numbers and cyclone days of severe TCs with minimum central pressure of 970 hPa or lower."
## [812] "That would mean last year was about the coolest year that we have had in Australia for about 26 years."
## [813] "CET winter December ??? March temperatures have shown an even more significant loss -1.45C in the last 13 years of since 2000."
## [814] "Climate Change / Global Warming: The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is called the worlds foremost authority on global warming / climate change. Using climate models, in 1990, the IPCC predicted significant, continuous global warming to 2012 and beyond. According to comprehensive satellite data, there has been no warming of the atmosphere for over a decade. According to the less comprehensive, but highly recognized surface data (from HadCRU), there has been no statistically significant surface warming for sixteen years. Should US government policy be based on predictions from models which are obviously failing? Why?"
## [815] "The deadliest cyclone in recorded history was Cyclone Bhola , which struck Bangladesh (then part of Pakistan) in 1970. Estimates for the number killed range from 200,000 to 1,000,000 people. Like Katrina, this storm was classified as a category 3 when it made landfall. But unlike Katrina it did not have minute by minute satellite tracking. What was its maximum wind speed while it was over the ocean? It was reported to be 185 mph the day it made landfall, but nobody knows for sure. Id like to show some large high resolution color pictures of the devastation and the suffering of the people, just like Al Gore did for Katrina, but there are few to be found. You can see several grainy low resolution black and white pictures here ."
## [816] "The Met Office says the 15-year standstill is not unusual. This is true but again the Met Office is being economical with the truth. The IPCC concluded that the period 1960-80 marked the start of mankinds domination of the Earths climate via greenhouse gas forcing. The period before 1960-80 the IPCC regarded as being solely due to natural factors. In the pre 1960-80 period there was a standstill between 1940-80. In the post 1960-80 period there was warming between 1980 96 and a standstill thereafter. The mankind-dominated era has only one standstill, which is becoming the dominant global climatic feature of this era."
## [817] "Here is an approximate, preliminary look at the winter for the 90 days ending february 26, 2011. December/January was the coldest in Florida (winter vegetables) history and remember the frosts and freezes in California and south Texas."
## [818] "Extreme drought occurs in Texas during more than 25% of years. Below are all the years since 1900 which experienced Palmer Drought Index extreme drought for at least one month during the year."
## [819] "Sea Level Rise Less Than 0.7 mm/Year And Falling"
## [820] "The two researchers report that \"in the context of prolonged severe droughts,\" the 20th century \"has been relatively moist compared to preceding centuries,\" and they say that their PDSI reconstruction and the Uinta Basin precipitation reconstruction indicate that \"the early to mid 17th century in particular, and portions of the 18th and 19th centuries, experienced prolonged (>10 years) dry conditions that would be unusually severe by 20th century standards,\" noting that \"the most striking example of widespread extended drought occurred during a ~45-year period between 1625 and 1670 when PDSI only rarely rose above negative values.\" What it means"
## [821] "I have had over 21 inches of snow at my house, here on the valley floor, at no elevation at all. For over a month now, every morning except one or two has been below freezing. And we all remember the arctic cold just before Christmas."
## [822] "A LEADING global warming expert believes the latest UN warning on man-made climate change is a ???big gamble?? as temperatures have not increased since 1997."
## [823] "One of the standard excuses for the team to ignore Antarctic sea ice has been the Arctic is losing sea ice much faster than the Antarctic has been gaining it. As is normally the case with climate experts, they have no cluewhat they are talking about. The graph below shows Antarctic sea ice in red, and Arctic sea ice in green."
## [824] "A linear fit to anomalies show warming from the 1971 through 2012 was approximately 0.16C/decade. In contrast the recent decadal trend ending in 2012 was -0.05C/dec. Moreover, the 11 and 12 year trends ending in 2012 are -0.05C/dec and -0.02 C/decade respectively. All 13-year or longer term trends ending in 2012 are positive."
## [825] "There is a lot more 3+ metre thick ice than there was two years ago, when David Barber declared that all the multiyear ice was gone."
## [826] "A&N; then adds the excuses of trade winds, volcanic activity and solar activity give us cooling that hides the warming. As I recall volcanoes were an afterthought to explain the pause that the warmists denied. I seem to recall a number of denials of solar activity having any influence on the climate, except when they need it. Then we have excess heat being buried in deep ocean waters. All based on the theory that water, being less dense than cold water, sinks to the bottom."
## [827] "One of the big lies of 2012 is that March and July were the hottest ever in the US. According to GHCN HCN daily temperatures, those records were actually set more than 100 years ago, in 1910 and 1901."
## [828] "Greenland did have a warm period ten years ago but temperatures have been plummeting ever since."
## [829] "Both of these questions are poorly formulated also because each assumes that respondents accept that global warming is happening. But the U.K. Met Office data released earlier this month demonstrates that there has been no overall warming for 16 years. Since all of the events listed as choices for question #2 occurred in the past two years, ?global warming? could not possibly have made them worse."
## [830] "Yet this startling growth has not produced so much as a twentieth of a Celsius degree of global warming. Any warming below the measurement uncertainty of 0.05 C in the global-temperature datasets is statistically indistinguishable from zero."
## [831] "Truly these days, in more ways than one, are we moving towards a new dark age. Fortunately, however, the latest available data show the downward trend in global temperatures continuing, At least the one thing we dont need to worry about, it seems, is global warming."
## [832] "According to the RSS satellite data, since September 1996 there has been no global warming for 210 months (17 years 6 months). NOAA?s 2008 State of the Climate report said 15+ years without warming would show a discrepancy between prediction and observation. There has been no warming in central England for 25 years."
## [833] "Sea level is not rising as predicted. In some interpretations of the sea level data, it has not been rising since 2004."
## [834] "At the current sea-level-equivalent ice-loss rate of 0.05 millimeters per year, it would take a full millennium to raise global sea level by just 5 cm, and it would take fully 20,000 years to raise it a single meter."
## [835] "Reuters took the hyperbole a leap further by claiming that the East Coast study shows sea levels from Cape Hatteras to Cape Cod are rising at a faster pace than anywhere on Earth. This assertion appears to be completely fabricated. The study compares global average sea-level accelerations to those on the coastlines of the continental U.S. and southernmost portion of Canada. It says nothing about any other specific locations, and an email to one of the studys authors confirms that the study does not make comparisons to anywhere on earth."
## [836] "The period since has been the quietest on record for US hurricanes, with no major (category 3-5) hurricanes."
## [837] "And despite claims that global warming is now heating this land like never before, Victorias highest recorded temperature is still the 50.7C measured in Mildura 103 years ago."
## [838] "Where A1 is the area of ice less than one metre, A2 is the area of ice less than two metres, etc. The 2010/2008 volume ratio came out to 1.24, which means there has been approximately a 25% increase in volume over the last two years. The average thickness has increased from about 2.0 metres to 2.5 metres. That means an extra 20 inches of ice will have to melt this summer. So far, this seems unlikely with the cold Arctic temperatures over the last couple of weeks."
## [839] "If you look at the third graph, you see that there was no warming on the Southern Hemisphere in the last 25 years even though the \"global warming theory\" and the corresponding models are predicting even faster rise of the tropospheric temperatures than for the surface temperatures. The decadal trend is quantitatively around 0.05 degrees which is noise whose sign can change almost instantly."
## [840] "Ninety degree days in the US midwest occur less than half as often now as they did eightyyears ago, with 2014 being the coolest summer on record. In 1934, hot days were eighteen times more common than this year. CO2 was 310 PPM at the time."
## [841] "Illustration of increased trade winds in the Pacific and Indian Oceans during the recent warming hiatus, which enhanced the flow of ocean water through the Indonesian archipelago. This resulted in an abrupt increase of Indian Ocean heat content. Credit: Sang-Ki Lee"
## [842] "Anyone who lives in the nation's capital knows that it has been FREEZING, with well below average temperatures. Even today, inauguration day, started out with the wind chill in single digits. It's good to know that the president already is seeking to fulfill his promise to halt global warming. After all, as candidate Barack Obama told us in his June speech celebrating having locked up the Democratic Party nomination"
## [843] "The Professor looked very closely at the diagram showing the anomalies in short-wave and, separately, in long-wave radiation, and noticed that, though both had run level until 1997 (and, indeed, there had been no ???global warming?? from 1980 to 1997), they had been sharply dislocated until 2000, when short-wave radiation ran level at a new and lesser flux, while long-wave radiation ran level at a new and greater flux."
## [844] "This illustrates the non-intuitive nature of climate. As the global temperature was climbing from 1985 until 1998, global sea ice was increasing. Since then it has decreased, and currently is where we were at the start of the satellite record. Variation in the average is 2%. Nothing unusual here."
## [845] "Read here . UK ocean experts, using the best tidal gauges available, discover that sea level rise is not accelerating. In fact, it has been decelerating since 1960, as the below graph indicates. (click on image to enlarge)"
## [846] "That wasntalarmingenough either, so they bumped the numbers up to 3.1 mm per year, almost triple the 1990 number without any evidence that sea level rise had accelerated."
## [847] "They made a little mistake though. Great Lakes ice extent was at an all-time record high for the date at the end of January."
## [848] "Seven of the last 10 years have produced above-average freezing in the waters west of Alaska, Cole said. Last year, seasonal sea-ice cover and thickness in the Bering Sea were higher than any time since record-keeping began four decades ago."
## [849] "Yet the actual plotted global temperature results on Chart #2, through June 2013, reveal that global warming has died and world temperatures are well below the NASA \"business as usual\" scenario. In fact, the actual temperatures are practically below the NASA model's 'Scenario C' (the cyan/aqua curve on chart) that assumes CO2 emissions had been reduced to year 2000 levels."
## [850] "A new paper published in The Cryosphere finds the largest ice cap in Tibet had approximately equal gain and loss of ice mass between 2000 and 2012, such that \"Overall, our results show an almost balanced mass budget for the studied time period. Additionally, we detected one continuously advancing glacier tongue in the eastern part of the ice cap.\" The findings stand in stark contrast to alarmist claims of a \"meltdown\" in \" the climate front line of Tibet .\""
## [851] "Also reported here is that Arctic sea ice volume has increased by a third in 2013 and that this growth continued into last year. Compared to the average of the period between 2010 and 2012, a 33 percent increase in sea ice volume was found in 2013 and and in 2014 there was still a quarter more ice than during that period. As Jim Lakely, director of communications at the Heartland Institute, writes today: \"The fact is, current ice extent on the North Pole is within the normal range of what satellites have accurately measured\" since 1979."
## [852] "If anthropogenic forcing has had any effect on sea levels, it should be evident in the latter half of that plot but there is no acceleration."
## [853] "Jason-1 shows sea level falling along most of the US East Coast. It is also quite clear from this map that cherry-picking one location isnt going to fly."
## [854] "A paper published today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters finds, \" In the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE (cyclone energy) has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s. Additionally, the global frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low.\""
## [855] "Warmist energy and climate website CO2-Handel reports here that once again global CO2 emissions have increased, reaching a record level in 2012! Yet CO2 Handel forgets to tell us that global temperature hasnt risen in almost 15 years:"
## [856] "People around the province woke up to snow Monday morning, after an ???unseasonably cold Arctic airmass?? descended over the province."
## [857] "Despite the continued increase of greenhouse gas emissions from us, rise of global surface temperatures has been easing since 1998."
## [858] "With almost 50% of the bay still covered in ice , Hudson Bay has the third highest coverage this week since 1992 (after 2009 and 2004); Davis Strait has the highest coverage since 1992; and Foxe Basin and Baffin Bay have the highest coverage since 1998."
## [859] "Theres nothing like a devastating Hurricane Sandy and a follow-up noreaster to get people thinking that climate is changing, but the simple unadorned fact is that the Earth has been in a cooling cycle since 1998. Its getting colder all over the world."
## [860] "Drought has for the most part, become shorter, less frequent, and cover a smaller portion of the U. S. over the last century. Globally, there has been little change in drought over the past 60 years."
## [861] "We have concluded that the Greenland and West Antarctica ice caps are melting at approximately half the speed originally predicted.The average rise in sea levels as a result of the melting ice caps is also lower."
## [862] "Johnathon Nott studied storm surges in North Queensland over the last 5,000 years and found that things have been fairly quiet for the last 200 years compared to the past."
## [863] "Apparentincreases inone type of extreme weather ??? flooding ??? may haveaneven simpler explanation:more people living in places where floods occur."
## [864] "Unusually cold and wet conditions across the middle of the country led to several snowfall records. Cheyenne, Wyoming observed 28 inches of snow during October, making this the city??s snowiest October on record. North Platte, Nebraska recorded 30.3 inches of snowfall, making October 2009 the snowiest month of all months on record for the city. The previous record was 27.8 inches, in March 1912."
## [865] "The full Wilkins 6,000 square mile ice shelf is just 0.39% of the current ice sheet (just 0.1% of the extent last September). Only a small portion of it between 1/10th-1/20th of Wilkins has separated so far, like an icicle falling off a snow and ice covered house. And this winter is coming on quickly. In fact the ice is returning so fast, it is running an amazing 60% ahead (4.0 vs 2.5 million square km extent) of last year when it set a new record. The ice extent is already approaching the second highest level for extent since the measurements began by satellite in 1979 and just a few days into the Southern Hemisphere winter and 6 months ahead of the peak. Wilkins like all the others that temporarily broke up will refreeze soon. We are very likely going to exceed last years record. Yet the world is left with the false impression Antarcticas ice sheet is also starting to disappear."
## [866] "During last year??s summer drought, NASA scientist James Hansen made a big splash with a study in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences and a Washington Post op-ed arguing that global warming was the cause ofthe four biggest hot spells of the past 10 years. However, as noted in skeptical blogs, meteorological analyses of the European heat wave of 2003 , the Russian heat wave of 2010 , the Texas-Oklahoma drought of 2011 , and the Midwest drought of 2012 attribute those events principally to natural variability."
## [867] "Let us look at the last three decades average global temperature but update the Met Office graph to Hadcrut4. You will notice it is essentially the same showing a steady increase the unchanging underlying rate of global warming. Now, bearing in mind the imposed constraint in the Met Office approach of decades with arbitrary start and end points, take the same Hadcrut4 data but this time use all the available and work backwards in 5-year integrations. You will see it tells a very different story. There is now no consistent increase in temperature seen in this data. The data, displayed this way, reveals that far from showing a steady underlying rate of warming the global temperature has had two standstills, with curiously, the 1998 super El Nino delineating them. David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 23 October 2012"
## [868] "The UK has been experiencing the coldest winter in several decades, and hopefully policymakers have learned a few basic lessons from this. Here is my wish list, which seem painfully obvious."
## [869] "Sea level rise certainly poses problems for the US east coast, but to a large extent this is due to subsidence. The naive belief that we can somehow halt the rise of the oceans carries the very real danger that we ignore the geological side of the problem."
## [870] "The results of this study clearly indicate, at least for this particular part of the world, that cyclone frequency and intensity do not respond to changes in temperature as predicted by climate alarmists, who say they base their claims on the output of state-of-the-art climate models. Hence, there is little reason to believe that tropical storms will respond to global warming in the ways they claim, i.e., that they will intensify and become more frequent."
## [871] "\"A year on, global warming alarmists are still exploiting Hurricane Katrina and the intense hurricane season of 2005 for political purposes. Contrary to what they say, the science linking global warming with hurricanes remains a field of active inquiry and dispute. Moreover, diverting precious resources into policies designed to reduce global warming rather than strengthen our resiliency in the face of hurricanes actually harms people in hurricane-prone areas. Instead, government policies should concentrate on reducing perverse incentives that encourage development in hurricane-prone areas.\""
## [872] "Andrew Montford draws attention to another paper just published by Gavin Schmidt, et al., that the failure of the earth to warm is one incredible, incredible coincidence. From the preview: Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El Nio evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy. See links under Un-Science or Non-Science?"
## [873] "Following the super La Nina of 2010/11, we had a period of extremes ??? snow and cold to start, then floods and drought, tornadoes and heat and a landfalling hurricane."
## [874] "Given such findings, for this particular portion of the planet, it should be very clear that relative coolness , as opposed to relative warmth, typically leads to more extreme storms, which is just the opposite of what the world's climate alarmists continue to contend."
## [875] "There is no scientific evidence to back up the assertion of a ???disappearing Grrenland Ice Sheet. For a detailed explanation as to why the Greenland ice sheet cannot collapse under any AGW scenario, see Ollier & Pain, 2009 ."
## [876] "I have tried to get to discuss and explain their rejection of my analysis, Rossiter told Climate Depot . When I countered a claim of rapidly accelerating temperature change with the IPCCs own data, showing the nearly 20-year temperature pause the best response I ever got was Caleb, I dont have time for this."
## [877] "Antarctic sea ice extent continues to break records. Extent at 31st January, of 4.540 million sq km, beat the previous record set in 2008. This is 26% higher than the climatological average for this date of 3.598 million sq km."
## [878] "The deep-ocean theory is one of a half-dozen explanations that have been proffered for the warming plateau. Perhaps the answer will turn out to be some mix of all of them. And in any event, computer forecasts of climate change suggest that pauses in warming lasting a couple of decades should not surprise us."
## [879] "With touching candour, the UN, in the latest IPCC climate report AR5, published this graph of world temperature observations (AR5 WG1 Chp 2 p.193). It reassures us that theres been insignificant global warming in about the last 20 years, while atmospheric CO2 concentrations became the highest in human history. Of course, since the temperature has not risen, it did not cause any extreme weather in the last 20 years. It has all been entirely natural."
## [880] "Russia is enduring its harshest winter in over 70 years, with temperatures plunging as low as -50 degrees Celsius, reports Russia Today. Dozens of people have already died, and almost 150 hospitalized."
## [881] "\"This temporal clustering,\" in the words of Ntegeka and Willems, \"highlights the difficulty of attributing 'change' in climate series to anthropogenically induced global warming,\" and they say that \"no strong conclusions can be drawn on the evidence of the climate change effect in the historical rainfall series.\" We find this negative or null result to be extremely interesting, especially in light of the fact that climate alarmists -- who argue that global warming should produce both more floods and more droughts -- typically contend that the warming of the earth over the past century or more has been unprecedented over the past one to two millennia . Perhaps their worries are not all that well founded. Reviewed 1 October 2008"
## [882] "Across the U.S., summer temperatures were cooler than normal. Aberdeen, S.D., experienced its coolest August in 115 years with an average temperature seven degrees below normal (63.4 vs. 70.5)."
## [883] "Many of the failed harvests of the past decade were a consequence of weather disasters, like floods in the United States, drought in Australia and blistering heat waves in Europe and Russia. Scientists believe some, though not all, of those events were caused or worsened by human-induced global warming. Completely unmentioned are the many (most?) scientists who believe that evidence is lacking to connect recent floods and heat waves to \"human-induced global warming.\" In fact, the balance of evidence with respect to floods is decidedly contrary to the assertion in the article, and recent heat wave attribution is at best contested. More importantly, even in the face of periodic weather extremes, food prices -- which link supply and demand -- exhibit a long-term downward trend, despite recent spikes ."
## [884] "In fact, NOAA and even the UN's alarmist IPCC have admitted that there have been no increases in the severity or frequency of droughts, floods, thunderstorms, or tornadoes in decades."
## [885] "But the tide seems to be turning. The Climate Conference fiasco in Copenhagen, Climategate scandal and stabilization of worldwide temperatures since 1995 have given rise to growing doubts about the putative threat of \"dangerous global warming\" or \"global climate disruption.\" Indeed, even Phil Jones, director of the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit and one of the main players in Climategate, now acknowledges that there has been no measurable warming since 1995, despite steadily rising atmospheric carbon dioxide."
## [886] "At his recent press conference, President Obama, in response to a question, said You know, as you know, Mark, we cant attribute any particular weather event to climate change. What we do know is the temperature around the globe is increasing faster than was predicted even ten years ago. That is a flat out lie. The temperature of the Earth has been cooling for at least sixteen years."
## [887] "When the decadal rates of change are integrated over the entire twentieth century we obtain the figure on the right. Sea level can be seen to have risen around 170 mm on average over the past century. The mean rate for the twentieth century calculated in this way is 1.67.04 mm/yr. The first half of the century (1904-1953) had a slightly higher rate (1.91.14 mm/yr) in comparison with the second half of the century (1.42.14 mm/yr 1954-2003)."
## [888] "The big one is that temperatures have nearly stopped rising this century so far. There has been very little to no rise whatsoever according to the main temperature metrics. We were supposed to rise substantially yet it didnt happen."
## [889] "Eleven years ago, in 2004, Crater Glacier already contained more ice than before the 1980 eruption, and was growing thicker at the rate of 15feet (5meters) per year."
## [890] "the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored."
## [891] "June of 1933 also had a heatwave, and Hartington, Nebraska was very hot. In fact it was so hot, that high temperatures during June 1933 averaged 9.2 degrees warmer than June 2012 ."
## [892] "As for UK winters, the sort of drop envisaged would return temperatures to the bitter winters of the 1960s, the coldest period since the 19thC. It is inevitable that spring temperatures will also be similarly affected, with a disastrous impact on the length of the growing season."
## [893] "Studysuggests that global sea level is less sensitive to high atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations than previously thought."
## [894] "Global Warming ended more than a decade ago as shown here, and in Reference 4 and also Reference 2."
## [895] "We all know that global warming has been on hiatus ? set on pause ? however you like to characterize the lack of significant warming, for over 15 years. Depending on how you do the statistics, the vast majority of the climate models used to guide our energy policy have over-predicted the surface warming trend since the satellite record began way back in 1979."
## [896] "Here in Britain, where we had our fifth freezing winter in a row, the Central England Temperature record according to an expert analysis on the US science blog Watts Up With That shows that in this century, average winter temperatures have dropped by 1.45C, more than twice as much as their rise between 1850 and 1999, and twice as much as the entire net rise in global temperatures recorded in the 20th century."
## [897] "Sunnier skies over Antarctica in turn mean that more solar radiation is reflected by high-albedo snow and ice instead of being absorbed in the cloud cover. Thus Antarctica has cooled."
## [898] "In fact extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones (hurricanes, in the US) have been at historic lows with atmospheric carbon dioxide at contemporary highs. Jimmy is seriously full of it."
## [899] "No they arent. Ice extent just took a large jump up and ice now fills most of the Beaufort Sea."
## [900] "FACT: Global temperature has not risen at all in the last 10 years."
## [901] "German meteorologists say that the start of 2013 is the coldest in 208 years ??? and now German media has quoted Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov from the St. Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory, who says it is proof that we are heading for a ???Mini Ice Age.??"
## [902] "Strike two : Summer ice (June, July) is 80-90% of what it was 30 years ago, not half."
## [903] "That a warmer, drier climate will spawn more frequent forest fires and fires of longer duration is almost a tautology. Nonetheless, some studies find no changein global fire activity over the past century and more. Ocean cycles and forestry practices also influence the frequency and extent of wildfires. Whether recent U.S. wildfires areprimarily due to global climate changeor other factors is neither obviousnor easily determined ."
## [904] "In any case, more reliable satellite data reveal that 2015 was only the third warmest year since recordings first began in 1979. Other than major 2015 and 1998 El Nino ocean spikes, there has been no statistically significant warming in nearly two decades. Yet although weather balloon (radiosonde) measurements closely agree with satellites, no temperature monitoring systems were designed to measure such small changes over decades."
## [905] "Well, Kyle Swanson of the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee says, temperatures should have gone up. But nobody told the temperatures. Isaac Held of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Princeton said, warming might possibly slow down or even stagnate for a few years before rapid warming commences again. Not to worry, well have explosive warming Held says."
## [906] "Lewis Page, Earth may be headed into a mini ice age within a decade, theregister.co.uk, June 14, 2011"
## [907] "What is indisputable is that storms do much more damage than in the past. This has nothing to do with worse weather but is due to the fact that population has surged, with ever more people living in low-lying and storm-prone areas, so the number of people and the amount of infrastructure being affected is far higher than in the past."
## [908] "We are not told, in short, that nearly all of the imagined sea-level rise since satellite altimetry began in 1993 arises not from measurements of real sea-level rise but from a combination of intercalibration biases and arbitrary and excessive glacial isostatic adjustments."
## [909] "With the 19.5 inch two-day snowfall total measured at Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall airport?? the seasonal snowfall total in Baltimore stands at 79.9 inches. This would break the previous all-time seasonal snowfall record for"
## [910] "The Antarctic minimum extents, which are reached in the midst of the Antarctic summer, in February, have also slightly increased to 1.33 million square miles in 2012, or around 251,000 square miles more than the average minimum extent since 1979."
## [911] "Ice extent was also higher than average in Baffin Bay, between Greenland and Canada, and the Sea of Okhotsk, north of Russia."
## [912] "The leftmost image reveals the current condition of the modern \"accelerating\" global warming that both the IPCC and MSM claim is happening. This objective empirical evidence (from NASA / GISS - James Hansen's - climate research unit clearly indicates that over the last 15 years, through April 2012, that global warming is basically non-existent and that human CO2 has had little impact."
## [913] "Updated data from NASA satellite instruments reveal the Earths polar ice caps have not receded at all since the satellite instruments began measuring the ice caps in 1979. Since the end of 2012, moreover, total polar ice extent has largely remained above the post-1979 average. The updated data contradict one of the most frequently asserted global warming claims that global warming is causing the polar ice caps to recede."
## [914] "For the past decade the world has not warmed. Global warming has stopped. Its not a viewpoint or a sceptics inaccuracy. Its an observational fact. So we are led to the conclusion that either the hypothesis of carbon dioxide induced global warming holds but its effects are being modified in what seems to be an improbable though not impossible way, or, and this really is heresy according to some, the working hypothesis does not stand the test of data."
## [915] "The real-world data-based results of Holgate and Boretti, as well as those of other researchers (Morner, 2004; Jevrejeva et al., 2006; Wppelmann et al., 2009; Houston and Dean, 2011), all suggest that rising atmospheric CO2 emissions are exerting no discernible influence on the rate of sea level rise. Clearly, SCC damages that are based on model projections of a CO2-induced acceleration of SLR must be considered inflated and unlikely to occur."
## [916] "Ive shortened the span of the weekly data. As noted in the mid-April 2013 update , Ive started using January 2001 so that the variations can be seen AND so that you can see how flat global sea surface temperature anomalies have been since then."
## [917] "Scenario 1: The earths average temperature during each year of the period 2014-2030 remains the same as is average temperature observed during the first 13 years of this century (2001-2013). This scenario represents a continuation of the ongoing pause in the rise of global temperatures."
## [918] "The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados"
## [919] "Antarctic sea ice extent has been growing for 30 years,and is near a record high ."
## [920] "Whoa, that cant be right! Mr. Gore showed those videos of ice retreating in Antarctica. Well, yes, sort of. Scientists expect that global warming will make the sea currents that circle Antarctica a bit warmer, leading to more precipitation and more snowfall on the continent. Besides, Antarctica is so damn cold that raising temperatures a few degrees is not going to melt anything."
## [921] "Excerpt: Carter: The accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stasis has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4%) in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Second, lower-atmosphere satellite-based temperature measurements, if corrected for non-greenhouse influences such as El Nino events and large volcanic eruptions, show little, if any, global warming since 1979, a period over which atmospheric CO2 has increased by 55 ppm (17%)."
## [922] "As documented by previous temperature charts , the global atmospheric temperatures have been on a declining trend over the last 15 years. The adjacent chart depicts similar results with a change: instead of CO2 levels (ppm), this chart shows the recent human CO2 emissions in gigatons."
## [923] "He also said there was no danger of sea level rises swallowing Pacific islands or coastlines and former US vice president Al Gore had exaggerated 100 per cent about sea level rises."
## [924] "A new paper just published and available for preview for the upcoming issue of Nature demonstrates that hyped claims that drought has increased aren??t founded in science. Plotting the Palmer Drought Severity Index globally over the past 60 years they show little change in drought."
## [925] "Alarmists made huge news out of last years warmth, and forgot to mention that five out of the last six years started out with below normal temperatures. (The 2013 numbers will probably rise a little before the month is over.)"
## [926] "The highest recent rate of warming based on its linear trend occurred during the 158-month period that ended about 2004, but warming trends have dropped drastically since then. There was a similar drop in the 1940s, and as youll recall, global surface temperatures remained relatively flat from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s. Also note that the late-1970s was the last time there had been a 158-month period without global warmingbefore recently."
## [927] "31 Aug 11 ??? Following the coldest June in nearly 40 years and the coldest July in 50 years, this month is now one of the coldest Augusts since records began in 1851."
## [928] "The bottom panel of following graphic shows what most meteorologists already know: there has been a downward trend in strong (F3) to violent (F5) tornadoes in the U.S. since statistics began in the 1950s. As seen in the top panel, this has also been a period of general warming. For those statistics buffs, the correlation coefficient is -0.31. Obviously, the conclusion should be that warming causes fewer strong tornadoes, not more. (Or, maybe a lack of tornadoes causes global warming!)"
## [929] "Global temperature projection for the coming century, based on warming/cooling cycles of the past several centuries. A projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1945-1977 cool phase. B projection based on assuming next cool phase will be similar to the 1880-1915 cool phase. The predicted warm cycle from 2030 to 2060 is based on projection of the 1977 to 1998 warm phase and the cooling phase from 2060 to 2090 is based on projection of the 1945 to 1977 cool cycle. See larger image here"
## [930] "The next graph shows the ten year running mean of violent tornadoes vs. the GISS US anomaly. Warmer years have fewer tornadoes."
## [931] "And, please note, not a single advisor, nor any of their climate science \"experts\" foresaw this lengthy cooling trend that is contrary to the \"settled-science\" warming predictions."
## [932] "Alexander et al. published a peer-reviewed study that found storms in the southeast region of Australia showing a significant reduction since the late 19th century."
## [933] "Now that the global warming \"hiatus\" has expanded to a new record length of 18 years and five months, the RSS satellite temperature record shows a sub-zero trend. But if El Nio conditions occur this year, this may interrupt the warming pause, though the discrepancy between prediction and observation continues to widen. According to Christopher Monckton , who has studied the climate extensively, \"the divergence between the models predictions in 1990 ( Fig. 2 ) and 2005 ( Fig. 3 ), on the one hand, and the observed out-turn, on the other, also continues to widen.\""
## [934] "The Met Offices figure for a rise of 12 cm in the English Channel during the 20th century comes from a paper by Wahl et al (2013) ( here ). However, these results which are for absolute sea level - show almost no acceleration in sea level rise. At 0.13 cm/year, the trend over 1993-2009 was only 0.1 cm/year higher than the trend over 18802009. Moreover this figure for the most recent rate of sea level rise may be inflated by a non-anthropogenic factor;. it looks from the Gregory et al (2013) 20th century global mean sea level rise paper that recovery from the cooling following the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption accounts for a slightly higher rate of sea level rise during 1993-2009, and indeed the post-1993 rate of increase tailed off after 2000."
## [935] "Mr Ramesh said the rate of retreat of glaciers in the Himalayas varied from a couple of centimetres a year to a couple of metres, but that this was a natural process that had taken place occurred over the centuries. Some were, in fact, growing, he said."
## [936] "As you can see, the future holds nothing to fear. There will be a few El Nios in the next ten years, then a moderate cooling as we come off the peak of the 62 and 204 year cycles. There will be more of those in mid-century, as the AMO rises again, then more cooling for a period at the end of the century as both of those cycles bottom out. No extensive warm periods will appear until late in the twenty-second century, as both peak again."
## [937] "The Danish Meteorological Institute has been tracking Arctic ice extent since 2005. They use the more meaningful30% concentration standard, and as of today show 2010 as the highest on record for the date."
## [938] "Nuccitelli then turns to the embarrassing increase in Antarctic sea-ice extent mentioned by Roy Spencer, and produces various papers saying more sea-ice in Antarctica is what we should expect from global warming."
## [939] "But, when the part of the detrended sea level that is correlated to ENSO3.4 is removed, the remaining orthogonal part of the rise rate appears to be lower at the end of the century than during the 1940s, and not particularly high compared to the rest of the century. So if my removal of the ENSO effect is correct, then there was nothing unusual about the rise rate at the end of the century"
## [940] "Dr Bill Gray from CSU is a good friend, the most widely recognizedhurricane forecaster, and one of themost senior global warming skeptics. He recognized the problems of global warming theory decades earlier than most former true believers like myself. In 1996, CSUs Bill Gray correctly predicted weak cooling for the next 20-30 years."
## [941] "The HadCRUt4 warming rate from 1976-2001 was equivalent to almost 1.8 C/century (compared with warming at just 1.1 C/century from 1979-1996), but from 2002 to the present HadCRUt4 shows cooling at a rate equivalent to almost 0.5 C/century (compared with warming at almost 0.5 C/century from 1997-2012)."
## [942] "Most people think the poles are melting theyre not,?? says Dr Benny Peiser.???Global sea ice is at a record high.??"
## [943] "German meteorologists say that the start of 2013 is now the coldest in 208 years - and now German media has quoted Russian scientist Dr Habibullo Abdussamatov from the St. Petersburg Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory as showing it is proof as he said earlier that we are heading for a \"Mini Ice Age.\" Talking to German media the scientist who first made his prediction in 2005 said that after studying sunspots and their relationship with climate change on Earth, we are now on an \"unavoidable advance towards a deep temperature drop.\" -- German Herald, 31 March 2013"
## [944] "UAH MSU satellite records have released the December 2008 data. The anomaly shows 0.074 ??C of cooling since November which is pretty substantial (100 ??C per century haha)."
## [945] "The paper corroborates the NOAA 2012 Sea Level Budget which finds sea levels have risen at only 1.1-1.3 mm/yr over the past 7 years from 2005-2012 , and the paper of Chambers et al finding ???sea level has been rising on average by 1.7 mm/year over the last 110 years.??"
## [946] "As noted in the abstract, Antarctic sea ice has confounded the models by instead increasing over the satellite era. In fact, it is currently at a record extent that is more than 2 standard deviations above the 1979-2000 average."
## [947] "At this meeting Profs. H. Flohn of Germany, H.H. Lamb of the United Kingdom and Reid Bryson of the United States developed a highly persuasive demonstration that there has been a steady cooling of northern hemisphere temperatures during the last 30 years, with the strongest cooling at the higher latitudes."
## [948] "Back in September, I warned that this was going to be an extremely bitterly cold winter . I wrote another article that warned about how cold this winter would be in early December ."
## [949] "In discussing their findings, Weinkle et al . say their long-period analysis \"does not support claims that increasing TC landfall frequency or landfall intensity has contributed to concomitantly increasing economic losses.\" And they conclude with the reassuring fact that their quantitative analysis of global hurricane landfalls \"is consistent with previous research focused on normalized losses associated with hurricanes that have found no trends once data are properly adjusted for societal factors (e.g., Pielke et al ., 2008; Crompton and McAneney, 2008; Neumayer and Barthel, 2011; Barthel and Neumayer, 2012; Bouwer, 2011; Raghavan and Rajesh, 2003).\" References"
## [950] "Not only has the Antarctic sea ice been increasing in recent years, but scientists have likewise witnessed a similar growth of the continental land ice, particularly in the eastern half of Antarctica."
## [951] "Satellite data shows that Arctic Sea ice extent is now the greatest for mid-June since at least 2005."
## [952] "The Danubes freezing is just one of many severe winter events in the continent this year. Heavy snowfall has blocked roads and stranded towns in central Italy. A train in Montenegro was stranded on the tracks for three days due to heavy snow. EvenVenices famous canals froze, a rare feat."
## [953] "All time record cold January morning in Canberra"
## [954] "Climate scientists have been baffled by the 17-year pause in global warming. At least eight explanations have been offered to explain the lapse in warming, including declining solar activity and natural climate cycles."
## [955] "Dr. Michaels: If you take a look at the IPCC??s latest volume, by the year 2100,they have two inches of sea-level rise resulting from the loss of Greenlandice. Nottwo feet. Not 20 feet. Two inches! That??s the ???consensus of scientists,?? okay. Whether or not we believe in consensus science, that??s what they say."
## [956] "On Sunday, CBS claimed that Antarctica is melting. In fact, once small portion of the Antarctic peninsula is warming and may be losing snow, while the rest of Antarctica has not been warming and in fact has been gaining ice cover. The show visits an island off the Antarctic Peninsula which has about as much weather relevance and predictive power to the rest of Antarctica as Key West has to the rest of the United States. Absolutely absurd."
## [957] "\"The long-term change for the Arctic sea ice has been very consistent. It shows a decline over these (past) three decades especially in the summer. In the past 3-4 years Arctic sea ice has been below the average for the last 30 years.\" That's great but the Arctic is not the globe. It's one percent of it or so. There are other places of the world where no \"consistent\" warming has occurred at all. The simplest example is the object on the other side from the Arctic, the Antarctica. Have you heard of that continent? It's not enough to find one place on Earth that's consistent with your hypothesis. Quite on the contrary: it's enough to find one place that's inconsistent with it to falsify it."
## [958] "Scientists, Czymzik et al., analyzing 450 years of data from Germany, found the IPCC's increased flooding prediction to be the total opposite of reality. Instead, it was determined that colder climates have a greater frequency of floods."
## [959] "A careful analysis of global temperature graphs from each of the measurement agencies confirm that ??? despite variations between them ??? there has not been any notable warming since 2000. Depending on which graphs you use, global temperatures since 2000 have been more or less flat. Some, such as the GISS data, show a modest rise, while others show negligible movement and even a small fall in recent years."
## [960] "2. Melting of the icecaps yet the icecaps in Antarctica and Greenland are actually increasing. Sea ice does not affect global sea level as it floats (Archimedes Principle). But the fact that Antarctic sea ice reached the greatest extent ever recorded in June 2014 suggests that this part of the world at least is getting colder, not warmer ."
## [961] "Since 1991, when global temperatures rose slightly past the 1940 levels, there have been 7 years of drought."
## [962] "This measurement is the thickest ice recorded for a late March/early April date since detailed record keeping began in 1964.??"
## [963] "NOAA s nearest tide gauge shows sea level rising in that region at 0.54 mm / year , which means that would take nearly 2000 years for sea level to rise one meter. See the plot below:"
## [964] "But if you subtract all the \"special characteristics\" of Sandy that are related to its random path, there is almost nothing left. In fact, by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), Sandy isn't even the largest storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season . It's not even the second one. It's not even the third one: Sandy is just the fourth largest Atlantic tropical storm of 2012. That shouldn't be shocking because it has made it to the Category 2 and only marginally and for a short time."
## [965] "North America's northeastern coast has been battered by hurricanes and other major storms throughout history. A 1775 hurricane killed 4,000 people in Newfoundland; an 1873 monster left 600 dead in Nova Scotia; others pummeled Canada's Maritime Provinces in 1866, 1886, 1893, 1939, 1959, 1963 and 2003."
## [966] "1. The rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998-2012; 0.05 deg. C/decade) is smaller than the trend since 1951 (1951-2012; 0.12 deg. C/decade) (SPM-3)."
## [967] "Since 1 January 2001, the dawn of the new millennium, the warming trend on the mean of 5 datasets is nil. No warming for 13 years 5 months."
## [968] "Around the world, meanwhile, record low temperatures continue to make a mockery of global warming theories. While anecdotal, to be sure, Cairo, Egypt, just saw its first snowfall in more than 100 years . In the United States there have been thousands of new records for cold temperatures and snowfalls just in the month of December. In an extremely bizarre twist, some climate scientists have even started claiming that the freezing temperatures are actually more evidence of global warming."
## [969] "The IPCC states that anthropogenic influences on the climate dominated natural ones sometime between 1960 80.The recent episode of global warming that occurred after that transition began in 1980. The world has warmed by about 0.4 deg C in this time. This analysis indicates that all of this warming occurred between 1980 and 1997. Whilst we live in the warmest decade of the instrumental era of global temperature measurement (post-1880), and the 90s were warmer than the 80s, the world has not got any warmer in the last 15 years."
## [970] "In fact, there has been a cooling, and a rather fast one that would subtract 2.7 ??C per century if it continued by the same rate (and it surely won't)."
## [971] "Its not in the air. Atmospheric temperature readings show global temperatures have been flat for more than a decade ."
## [972] "In a study of cyclic behavior of the Sun, Russian scientists now predict 100 years of cooling."
## [973] "Meanwhile, the National Snow and Ice Data Center has acknowledged that due to a satellite sensor malfunction, it had been underestimating the extent of Arctic sea ice by 193,000 square miles ??? an area the size of Spain. In a new study, University of Wisconsin researchers Kyle Swanson and Anastasios Tsonis conclude that global warming could be going into a decades-long remission. The current global cooling ???is nothing like anything we??ve seen since 1950,?? Swanson told Discovery News. Yes, global cooling: 2008 was the coolest year of the past decade ??? global temperatures have not exceeded the record high measured in 1998, notwithstanding the carbon-dioxide that human beings continue to pump into the atmosphere."
## [974] "As we approach the end of October, Arctic sea ice continues to grow well above the level of recent years. Unfortunately, NSIDC systems have been down for the last week, but all the other datasets are in pretty good agreement."
## [975] "The gist of this propaganda piece is that anthropogenic CO2 causes global warming, which heats the oceans and causes thermal expansion. Along with melting glaciers, the hotter oceans cause sea level rise. And the SLR is the coastal flooding projections from the Union of Concerned Scientists . Not very original, but if you are just inundated with bad news, any old projection will do. The UCS projection doesnt even start with actual flooding, because there really hasnt been enough to have an almost zero start point. None of these climate expert worriers seem to be aware that the rate of sea level rise has been constant for about 150 years."
## [976] "In the HadCRUT3 temperature record, the world warmed by 0.07C0.07C from 1999 through 2008, not the 0.20C expected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Corrected for the natural temperature effects of El Nio and its sister climate event La Nia, the decades trend is a perfectly flat 0.00C."
## [977] "For years now, more and more scientists have been warning that fewer observed sunspots could mean the Earth is heading for a cooling period."
## [978] "The IPCC-projected rise of up to 1m by the end of this century would require an average rate of up to 12mm/yr for the rest of this century, some four times the current rate, and an order of magnitude larger than implied by the 20th century acceleration of0.01mm/yr found in some studies. What drives the projected sea level rise? To what extent is it dependent upon a continued rise in Global Mean Surface Temperature?"
## [979] "The cooling of the air causes an increase in the extension of glaciers and of snow fields, furthering lowering temperatures with their highly reflecting (high albedo) surfaces. Glaciers therefore increase even more, in a positive feedback that will bring us to a new Ice Age in a hundred years or even less ."
## [980] "Nor, of course, did Abraham mention the slide in which I showed a picture of the St. Regis Tower, San Francisco, with a map showing it to be just feet from the allegedly-rising ocean at Fisherman's Wharf, and a statement that in 2005, the very year in which Gore was making up his alarmist movie, he had spent $4 million buying a condo there. Would he have bought that condo if he had seriously thought sea level would imminently rise by 20 feet? That, as my Latin Grammar would put it, is \"a question expecting the answer \"No'\"."
## [981] "This would be reasonable if only southern hemisphere sea ice were actually in decline rather than increase."
## [982] "A further study on North American drought story appeared in mid-2013 in PNAS by Asmerom et al. Interestingly, these authors describe a long-lasting mega-drought that over three centuries took place in the Little Ice Age. Yemane Asmerom and colleagues see a connection with the low solar activity at this time, which had changed the monsoon. Here is the short version:"
## [983] "Unfortunately for their credibility, since at least the year 2000 global temperatures have trended level despite significant increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide."
## [984] "You certainly know the jig is up when the New York Times finally recognizes that the feverish climate fervor is overheated. They reported on June 6 that The rise in the surface temperature of Earth has been markedly slower over the last 15 years than in the 20 years before that. And that lull in warming has occurred even as greenhouse gases have accumulated in the atmosphere at a record pace. Reporter Justin Gillis went on to admit that the break in temperature increases highlights important gaps in our knowledge of the climate system, whereby the lack of warming is a bit of a mystery to climate scientists."
## [985] "?This was the year that even one scientist at NASA predicted that the Arctic ice in the summer would be gone completely,? he said. ?Well, there?s 60 percent more ice this year than last year and the reason is because of the cooling sun and the cooling temperatures.?"
## [986] "If this cooling trend were to continue, it would spell disaster for the world's hungry. Let's hope ' the pause ' in global warming does not last much longer since it unfortunately seems to project a cooling regime over the U.S."
## [987] "As CO2 has increased, the number of F3-F5 tornadoes has decreased. Extrapolating the trend, we can see that at 480 ppm there would be zero severe tornadoes."
## [988] "Thirty-three years later, the area of sea ice on Earth is almost exactly the same as 1980"
## [989] "Climate realists have long been aware that global average surface temperature had stopped sometime around 2000, and even a few years before. Lately alarmists had to admit it . The period with no warming is now as long as was period of warming on which fears were based 17 years according to a leaked draft of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)despite continued rise of atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration."
## [990] "Temperatures in Minden this week are forecast to be 30-40 degrees cooler than they were in 1936. President Barack Obama says that the US is heating out of control."
## [991] "Predictions in May 2006 were for 8-10 hurricanes (4-6 Cat 3+). So far this year we??ve had 3 \"named storms\" and the Atlantic is quiet as of today . A \"named storm\" has a minimum wind speed of 40 mph, so one may presume that comparative early 20th century statistics for \"named storms\" are unlikely to be comprehensive. On Aug 6, 2006, predictions were revised slightly down to 7-9 hurricanes (3-4 Cat 3+)."
## [992] "Dr Post said in January there is no evidence linking drought to climate change in eastern Australia, including the Murray-Darling Basin."
## [993] "The AGW-alarmist frenklade the world of s seems the Antarctic ice tillvxttrend as a great mystery. Or perhaps as an annoyance. Why grows the sea ice in Antarctica No global temperature reservoirs, and No. their models says that it should decrease? Evidently's make it good to blame on global warming when it is about the Arctic, but it gets more complicated No trend gr for second hole in Antarctica."
## [994] "\"Snowmageddon\" threatens Massachusetts global warming forum"
## [995] "First, some background. Pielke, a professor at the University of Colorado since 2001, holds degrees in mathematics, public policy, and political science. He has authored or co-authored seven books. He has won several awards for his academic work. For about two decades, he was a prolific writer and speaker on climate issues. In 2013, he testified before Congress and declared that there is \"exceedingly little scientific support for claims found in the media and political debate that hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and drought have increased in frequency or intensity on climate timescales either in the United States or globally.\" During that same testimony, he said that global weather-related losses have not increased since 1990 as a proportion of GDP. He went on, saying that there were also no observable increases in floods, tornadoes, or droughts."
## [996] "h/t The Register ??? the UK MET Office has published a report which suggests the pause in global temperatures might continue for many years to come. Or the pause might not continue. They??re not really sure."
## [997] "This is a curious move of the goalposts, since the IPCC claims a bogus 95% confidence that \"most\" of the warming since 1950 is anthropogenic on the basis of temperature rise since 1950 , not on the basis of sea level rise, and thus opposite to the claims of this new paper. In addition, this new paper claims climate models predict allegedly anthropogenic \"sea level rise signals can arise as early as 2020 over half the global ocean regions.\" If that's the case, there's a lot of sea level rise catching up to do, since global sea levels have been naturally rising for ~20,000 years and have decelerated over the past 8,000 years , decelerated over the 20th century , decelerated 31% since 2002 and decelerated 44% since 2004 to less than 7 inches per century. There is no evidence of an acceleration of sea level rise , and therefore no evidence of any effect of mankind on sea levels. Sea level rise is primarily a local phenomenon related to land subsidence, not CO2 levels."
## [998] "Low sunspot activity means Earth chilling until at least 2030"
## [999] "Published scientific studies on the Russian heat wave indicate this claim to be false. Our own study on the Texas heat wave and drought, submitted today to Journal of Climate, likewise shows that that event was not caused by human-induced climate change. These are not de novo events, but upon scientific scrutiny,one finds both the Russian and Texas extreme events to be part of the physics of what has driven variability in those regions over the past century. Not to say that climate change didnt contribute to the those cases, but their intensity owes to natural, not human, causes."
## [1000] "In 1954, average July maximum temperatures were three degrees higher (106F) than last month (103F) in Hennesey. A number of years in the 1930s and 1950s had temperatures over 100 degrees in both July and August, and that does not appear likely to happen in 2011, with cooler weather in the forecast."
## [1001] "Scary stuff two inches of sea level rise over the next 100 years. For reference. sometimesthe incoming tide changes sea level forty inches in less than one second in the Bristol Channel."
## [1002] "The fires can certainly be far worse in drought years. But droughts are nothing new, either. We all recall the seven-year drought that brought Joseph to prominence in pharaoh's Egypt, and the eight-year-long Dust Bowl during the 1930s. Historians describe a 50-year \"water famine\" that drove Anasazis out of the American Southwest, the 200-year drought that ended Mayan civilization, and other parched periods in China, Africa, Mesopotamia, and other regions."
## [1003] "?? Not even ignorance could be responsible for a thing like that. ?? So tide gauges, you have to treat very, very carefully. Now, back to satellite altimetry. From 1992 to 2002, was a straight line, variability along a straight line, but absolutely no trend whatsoever. We could see those spikes: a very rapid rise, but then in half a year, they fall back again. But absolutely no trend, and to have a sea-level rise, you need a trend."
## [1004] "This will reduce the 1940-1970 cooling in NH temps. Explaining the cooling with"
## [1005] "Regardless, the component thats very obviously missing is the anthropogenic global warming component. Sea surface temperature anomalies for the East Pacific havent warmed in 30 years. A trend of 0.007 deg C per decade is basically flat. Thats 7 one-thousandths of a deg C per decade, or based on the linear trend, theyve warmed 2.1 one-hundredths of a deg C over the past 30 years. Its foolish to think in terms that small when dealing with a body of water thats about 120 million square kilometers or about 46 million square miles. Its better simply to say the data shows no evidence of warming."
## [1006] "The most important feedback was loss of polar sea ice, which was theorized to amplify global warming. This hasnt happened. In fact the amount of sea ice on Earth may challenge record levels later this year."
## [1007] "According to that index, in 2002 the influence of greenhouse gases on surface temperatures was 1.166 of that in 1990. In 2013 the index is 1.338. This represents an increase in the warming index of 0.172, or 15% during a period in which the atmosphere has not warmed. In 1997 the index was 1.089. Thus, in 2013 the index was 0.249 larger than in 1997, or the calculated greenhouse effect was 23% greater than in 1997 over a period in which the surface has not warmed!"
## [1008] "This surprised those of us who remember the abnormally cold winter of 2009, followed in 2010 by the coldest December since records began."
## [1009] "It is significantly colder globally, colder even than the significant drop to -0.046C seen in January 2008."
## [1010] "Trend, you say? Doesnt a 100-year high temperature in and of itself imply warming? Certainly not. I believe this will prove to be an exaggeration, but for a moment lets assume that this heat wave has created the hottest June in 100 years for half the Continental US. That seems pretty extreme, right? But the Continental US is about 2.5% of the worlds land mass. Just by math, in a stochastic system with a stable mean, a land area of this size somewhere should have a 100-year high month about five times a year! One data point about one small patch of the Earth having a hot month tells us nothing about trends."
## [1011] "Temperatures were in the middle 60s through the day on Wednesday, which likely sent it to therecord books for the cold?? The coldest high temperature ever recorded on this date was 70 degrees back in 1896. If Wednesday stays at or below 67 degrees, that will make July 16th the coldest July day Toledo has had since 2003.The average high this time of the year is 85 degrees. The average high does not fall to the middle 60s until the middle of October."
## [1012] "This means that the pause in global warming has now lasted for about the same time as the previous period when temperatures rose, 1980 to 1996"
## [1013] "As NASA data indicates, \"global warming\" has been pretty sparse over the last decade, especially in the U.S. and the Southeast region. In fact, the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) reports the Southeast region has experienced slight global cooling since 1895 through September, 2010."
## [1014] "Current CO2 levels mean an increase in ice volume ???would not be possible,?? says this article on Reuters , while at the same time showing photo of a GROWING glacier."
## [1015] "Their own graph shows that Arctic sea ice extent is just below normal, and melting unusually slowly."
## [1016] "Environment Canada issued a snowfall warning for Ottawa and Gatineau, saying the region could expect up to three cm (1 inches) of snow per hour, to a maximum of about 15 cm (6 inches)."
## [1017] "Finally they mention sea-level rise . The observed increase in sea-level at our ports is equivalent to the width of my thumbnail every ten years."
## [1018] "One problem with that conclusion, according to some climate scientists, is that the U.N.s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has limited the hiatus to 10-15 years. Anastasios Tsonis, distinguished professor at the University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, believes the pause will last much longer than that. He points to repeated periods of warming and cooling in the 20th century."
## [1019] "Following in the heels of Corbyns forecast was the release of a new report by Dr. David Whitehouse , published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation, and what makes it fairly extraordinary after decades of global warming propaganda is that he concludes that there has been no statistically significant increase in annual global temperatures since 1997. Thats seventeen years of atrocious lies about a warming earth."
## [1020] "At the time, there was a unanimous consensus that the Earth was cooling, but James Hansen is just plain smarter thanthe NASA scientists in the 1960s who were still able to put a man on the moon."
## [1021] "As shown in our figure, the increase in Antarctic ice extent has been quite impressive, especially since approximately 2000."
## [1022] "In short, whatever \"hotter, drier, longer\" forest fires we are witnessing today have nothing to do with fossil fuels, plant-fertilizing carbon dioxide, or \"dangerous manmade climate change.\" They have a lot to do with incompetent forest mismanagement policies and practices."
## [1023] "With many analyses suggesting cooler times are on the way, this year may be exceptional in recent experience, but how many ???just one year??s would it take for us to notice the effects?"
## [1024] "\" ...analyzed storminess across the whole of southeast (SE) Australia using extreme (standardized seasonal 95th and 99th percentiles) geostrophic winds deduced from eight widespread stations possessing sub-daily atmospheric pressure observations dating back to the late 19th century...The four researchers report that their results \"show strong evidence for a significant reduction in intense wind events across SE Australia over the past century.\" More specifically, they say that \"in nearly all regions and seasons, linear trends estimated for both storm indices over the period analyzed show a decrease,\" while \"in terms of the regional average series,\" they say that \"all seasons show statistically significant declines in both storm indices, with the largest reductions in storminess in autumn and winter.\""
## [1025] "There is also no sign of acceleration in sea-levels for the last 50 years . (How much should Europeans spend to stop a 1mm annual rise that was already going in 1890 and has not changed much since then?) If anything, Nils work shows how difficult it is to measure true sea-level rise on land that shifts."
## [1026] "Weather isnt climate (as we all know) but the number of stories about extreme cold in the Northern hemisphere this last few months has been staggering (see here for a recent example). And now it appears the Southern hemisphere may be about to follow suit:"
## [1027] "Two Graphs are presented, one with CO2 concentration from 1880 to 2014, and a second with temperature during this same period. What is not shown is a temperature graph from 1997 to 2014. which would reveal that there has been no temperature increase at all."
## [1028] "Contrary to the lies of climate experts, US drought is near historically low levels. The animation below flashes between December 2014 and December 1963"
## [1029] "And now oceanic cycles have switched to a cold mode , where data shows that the amount of Arctic summer sea ice has increased by more than a quarter since 2007."
## [1030] "Higher-than-average temperatures, easily and obviously explained by referring to weather patterns, are instead the fault of AGW"
## [1031] "Indeed, earlier this year David Whitehouse from the Global Warming Policy Foundation concluded that there had been no global warming for 15 years ."
## [1032] "The consensus agrees that humans are driving the increase in temperatures, except for the minor detail that temperatures arent increasing."
## [1033] "In completing his analysis, Boretti thus concludes, quite logically, that the \"rise of sea level in the bay of Sydney by 2100 is therefore more likely less than the 50 mm measured so far over the last 100 years, rather than the meter predicted by some models,\" the latter of which would appear to be the source of \"inspiration\" for the Australian government's pronouncements."
## [1034] "The average temperature for first 27 days of January at Indianapolis is20.4 F (-6.44 C) degrees?? the coldest for January since 1985."
## [1035] "* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS?? 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE?? WITH 10TO 14 INCHES IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN CATSKILLS?? BERKSHIRES AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS."
## [1036] "Leaked IPCC reports, reviewing forecasts made in 2007, have called into question how much climate change has taken place by concluding that, even with a doubling of carbon emissions from 1990 levels, the global temperature has risen little or more slowly than predicted over the last 10-20 years."
## [1037] "Moreover, they are featuring prominent skeptic scientists who are warning of a potential little ice age and dismissing CO2 as a major climate driver. And all of this just before the release of the IPCCs 5AR, no less!"
## [1038] "Shock news. Antarctic just like it was 100 years ago."
## [1039] "Whats missing from this picture? Any acknowledgement that there has been a pause in warming which was not expected or predicted by the climate models, despite the headbangers claiming that warming is accelerating.*"
## [1040] "The Danish Meteorological Institute reports that Greenlands ice sheet has seen more growth so far this year than in the last four years. Greenlands ice sheet growth in 2015 is also higher than the mean growth for 1990 to 2011."
## [1041] "Since Arrhenius made his forecast of warmth in Chicago Illinois temperatures have plummeted and are the coldest on record this year. They peaked in 1921"
## [1042] "During the last ice age, the East Coast got pushed upwards by a huge mass of ice depressing the interior of Canada and raising the surrounding regions. Now that the ice has melted in Canada, the East Coast is sinking back to its original elevation. The apparent rise in sea level has nothing to do with global warming. If it were global, we would see the effect on the Pacific Coast as well and we dont."
## [1043] "This week was a true roller coaster ride with Arctic Sea Ice. It is best summed up by looking at the JAXA graph for extent, shown below:"
## [1044] "In the last month, the Arctic Oscillation Index (AO) has gone strongly negative. You can see that it headed to its negative peak right about the time the Copenhagen Climate Conference started, so it is no wonder that they ironically experienced cold and snow there. It is also a setup for the record snow and cold Canada and the USA has seen recently."
## [1045] "Often focused on century-long trends, most climate models failed to predict that the temperature rise would slow, starting around 2 000. Scientists are now intent on figuring out the causes and determining whether the respite will be brief or a more lasting phenomenon."
## [1046] "Our analysis shows that fewer extremely hot days were recorded over the past five years at both Observatory Hill and Parramatta than in the preceding five years of observation or the five years before that."
## [1047] "McCarthy and the Post apparently neglected to notice that no UN category 3-5 hurricanes have struck the U.S. coast since October 2005, setting a more than century-long record lull since 1900. In fact, NOAA and even the UN's alarmist Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that there have been no increases in the severity or frequency of droughts, floods, thunderstorms, or tornadoes in decades."
## [1048] "Bottom Line: The statistical evidence on violent tornadoes, although frequently ignored by the media, politicians, and others claiming a link between violent weather and climate change, suggests that the frequency of violent tornadoes like the recent one in Moore, Oklahoma, has been declining over time, not increasing."
## [1049] "Ball also rejects the contention that climate change brings on more extreme weather events, not just higher temperatures. He said hurricane season was very quiet this year and tornadoes were down as well. He chalked up record high and low temperatures to the jet stream shifting from a west-east flow to more of a north-south line."
## [1050] "Longer term the sun is behaving like it did in the last 1700s and early 1800s, leading many to believe we are likely to experience conditions more like the early 1800s (called the Dalton Minimum) in the next few decades. That was a time of cold and snow. It was the time of Charles Dickens and his novels with snow and cold in London (hmmmm)."
## [1051] "Low temperature records are falling by the hundreds this winter. This is occurring despite the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicting that extreme cold outbreaks will become less frequent and less severe. When a theory's predictions are contradicted by real-world events, sound science requires us to re-examine the theory."
## [1052] "George Will??s statement is essentially that the blue the dot at the end of 2008 represents more ice than the dot at the end of 1979. This is true as factoids often are."
## [1053] "The record shows no trend. Even the long warming fromt he Little Ice Age has stopped."
## [1054] "Normally, a supply barge arrives in the Amundsen Gulf in early summer to replenish stocks of fuel and other necessities, says the CBC. But this year, that trip is being held up by ice. As much as 30 to 40 per cent of the Arctic Ocean remains covered in ice."
## [1055] "The graph above plots the ten year running mean of US hurricane strikes vs. atmospheric CO2. As you can see, there is no correlation between increasing CO2 and increasing hurricane strikes."
## [1056] "Other commentators have pointed out recently that, while Arctic ice is at record low levels since 1979, Antarctic sea ice levels are at or close to record highs. I thought, therefore, that this might be a good time to look at satellite temperatures for the two poles."
## [1057] "Not only did Arctic ice make a spectacular recovery this year, but the remaining ice is relatively thick and the water is cold."
## [1058] "Earth has the same amount of sea ice as it did when Hansen made that forecast in 1984"
## [1059] "Elsewhere they note the Newport, Rhode Island, tide gauge provides a 0.9-mm/y rate as well. The residual sea-level trend shows no apparent agreement with that of atmospheric CO2. When a Guilford marsh reconstruction is detrended and compared to the CO2 record of the same period, there is no indication of an exponential increase in the rate of sea-level rise. They present many other sites that simply do not show the expected accelerated rise in sea level over the past 100 or so years when the greenhouse gas buildup increased."
## [1060] "None of whats going on today is outside long term variations in ice cover and thickness . On November 20, 1817 the President of the Royal Society proposed a letter to the British Admiralty:"
## [1061] "Greenlands surface gained mass yesterday for the first time this summer. The net surface gain over the past year has been 300 billion tons."
## [1062] "Horizontal axis is thousands of years before the present. Second graph shows a decrease in El Nino intensity since the Minoan Warm Period 3,000 years ago. Bottom graphs show modern droughts are not unusual or unprecedented."
## [1063] "The National Snow And Ice Data Center in Colorado has still failed to mention this on their web site. They continue to discuss the record Arctic minimum, and until recently were featuring an article about penguins being threatened by decliningAntarcticsea ice, even though Antarctic sea ice has been steadily increasing throughout the satellite record."
## [1064] "According to official data, average sea level rose by 18 centimeters during the 20th century (i.e., less than two centimeters per decade) and the first 10 years of the 21st century show no accelerating trend. The average forecasts of the IPCC for the current century report an increase of 30 centimeters, or three centimeters per decade."
## [1065] "According to this index, the 8 most severe droughts at the 6-month time scale for the summer rainfall region of South Africa happened in 1926, 1933, 1945, 1949, 1952, 1970, 1983 and 1992. There is considerable decadal variability and an 18 to 20 year cycle is only found in the number of dry districts."
## [1066] "Back around 18,000 years ago during the deepest part of the last Ice Age, a period known as the Wisconsin, sea levels were about 400 feet lower than now. That was because lots of the water was bound up in land ice. Then about 15,000 years ago huge ice sheets covering North America and Eurasian land masses began to rapidly melt, causing sea levels to rise at the rate of roughly 16 feet per century up until the beginning of the Holocene Optimum. Between about 8,000 to 5,000 years ago the rate of rise declined precipitously, and has been relatively stable ever since."
## [1067] "So far this month, the US is having its10th coldest January on record, and the coldest since 1982"
## [1068] "Among the longest records of active hurricane zones is on the US east coast. NOAAs Hurricane Research Division has data back to 1851. No major hurricane (category 3 or more) has hit the continental US since Wilma in October 2005. That is the longest pause on record. NOAA says It is premature to conclude that human activities and particularly greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming have already had a detectable impact on Atlantic hurricane activity."
## [1069] "The mass media conveyed in many cases the perception that these tropical hurricanes were a result of the greenhouse effect. But there are no indications of an increasing trend in the intensity or number of tropical hurricanes . The large increase in damage caused by severe storms in different parts of the world is caused mainly bypeople increasingly living and working in more exposed locations."
## [1070] "Highly paid experts tell us that sea ice is rapidly disappearing, which explains why global sea ice area has been averaging above normal for the past two years."
## [1071] "October 14, 2012. Advanced search. Mount Shasta glaciers growing, despite warming. Kilimanjaro glacier bad example of global warming."
## [1072] "Energy flow is driven by differences in energy, not absolute energy. Global warming should produce fewer and weaker storms, not more and stronger storms."
## [1073] "There has been a slight, but meaningless increase in heaviest rainfall events. Most of the 20+ cm rainfall events occurred before 1960"
## [1074] "Findings: There is a mixture of results depending on site location. Perth has more heatwaves since 1956, than before then. Adelaide has the opposite, with many more heatwaves before 1950, than after 1950."
## [1075] "According to the 9NEWS Weather Team, the front will cause temperatures to drop 15 to 30 degrees through the weekend."
## [1076] "Abdussamatov concluded Earth is no longer threatened by the catastrophic global warming forecast by some scientists, since warming passed its peak in 1998-2005."
## [1077] "Significantly, in December 2012, the Met Office produced a new and totally different forecast, which totally overturned their earlier ones. This effectively predicts no increase in global temperatures for the next five years."
## [1078] "One of you asked about the snow in the mountains...well, the snowpack has recovered quite nicely the last week or so...take a look at the map. Southern and central Cascades..western slopes and crest..are now above normal. The northern Cascades and Okanogan have gotten some...but still are about 25-35% below normal. We had a cold winter and the spring is no better. Look at the temps at Sea Tac versus climo...generally below normal temps. In fact, of the last 100 days, approximately 75 have been below normal. So the complaints I have heard are well founded. I really hope we don't repeat last spring, which according to my Barbeque index, was the coldest since 1918! Two cold springs in a row will not only be bad for my vegetable garden, but would really be a downer. Good for water supply and late season skiing though."
## [1079] "But there is another more vexing dilemma facing the IPCC. Since publication of the AR4, nature has thrown the IPCC a curveball there has been no significant increase in global average surface temperature for the past 15+ years."
## [1080] "In other words, researchers have yet to find evidence of more-extreme weather patterns over the period, contrary to what the models predict. ???There??s no data-driven answer yet to the question of how human activity has affected extreme weather,?? adds Roger Pielke Jr., another University of Colorado climate researcher."
## [1081] "Not only has the intensity of hurricanes fallen, but, as George H. Taylor, the state climatologist of Oregon has pointed out, so has the frequency of hailstorms in the U.S. (see Changnon and Changnon) and cyclones throughout the world (Gulev, et al.)."
## [1082] "Over the last 3o years of satellite measurement, the growth of the ice amount in the Southern Ocean which surrounds Antarctica was more than 4 percent ."
## [1083] "What is the reason for the lack of warming observed at the surface of the Earth since about 1997? Many causes have been proposed, and with increasing frequency, but most only represent partial explanations. There are clearly more putative causes than can possibly be the case. --David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 26 March 2014"
## [1084] "Antarctic Sea Ice Sets New Record For Jan 31st"
## [1085] "Now lets beclear about this: a complete meltdown of the Greenland ice sheet would raise the planets sea level 7 meters (7000 mm). The sea level rise rate today is about 3 mm per year and decreasing according to satellitedata. A rationalreading the tide gauge data is even less."
## [1086] "Multiple researchers have investigated how flood activity has changed over the recent past and how this extreme weather event has responded to the global warming of the past several decades. Their analyses provide a means of evaluating climate-alarmist claims that CO2-induced global warming is leading to more frequent and intensified flooding around the globe; and they indicate there is nothing unusual about the flooding of the modern era. Large flood events occurring in recent timeshave many historic analogs in the past, when airs CO2 concentration was much lower than it is presently. Taken together, the material presented in this section strongly suggests that rising atmospheric CO2 is having no measurable impact on modern flood events."
## [1087] "Yes, but only just. I also calculated the trend for the period 1995 to 2009. This trend (0.12C per decade) is positive, but not significant at the 95% significance level. The positive trend is quite close to the significance level. Achieving statistical significance in scientific terms is much more likely for longer periods, and much less likely for shorter periods."
## [1088] "Since late Friday, the country has experienced uncommonly cold weather as temperature dropped below freezing in many areas, Kuwait Meteorology Center said yesterday."
## [1089] "The Arctic sea ice concentration reached its minimum around September 15th this year. Figure 2, below, from the Polar Research Group at the University of Illinois, shows the distribution of ice in the Arctic on that day. As you can see, the North Pole was not even close to being ice free. Figure 3 shows the Arctic Basin sea ice area for the last 365 days. Note that in mid-September the the sea ice area anomaly for the Arctic Basin was about negative 0.75 million square kilometers, but there were still 2.5 million square kilometers of ice yet to melt. Again, not even close to zero."
## [1090] "5. If this global atmospheric cooling trend persists much longer, the greens and the MSM \"journalists\" will pirouette 180 degrees and claim human CO2 causes cooling (and climate change)"
## [1091] "It's a record that would seems to largely prevent any simple conclusions from being drawn that is, rising temperatures with few drought years, followed by falling temperatures and increasing drought frequency, followed by temperatures rising back to the original levels with increased drought frequency, followed by a leveling off of drought occurrence despite higher temperatures."
## [1092] "Global warming took a vacation last year and there was more than a foot of snow on the ground. As we motored up the highway the thermometer registered a balmy 35 degrees, but the radio said a cold front was moving in. Our final destination was an open log shelter a mile up the mountain."
## [1093] "20 year trends are dubious, but we don??t have enough data for certainty on seriously long frames that we need to avoid confounding things with the decadal cycles. Sea levels around Australia appear to be rising at about 2mm a year, and that??s nothing like the 12 mm required to get a 1 m or more rise by 2100. There is no acceleration. Things are not getting worse."
## [1094] "This is not the first time Russian scientists predict cooling ahead. In 2006 Chabibullo Abdussamatow of the Pulkovo Observatory and a member of the Russian Academy of Sciences said global warming had already reached its peak and that reduced solar activity would start the Earth on a cooling phase. According to Ria Novosti here :"
## [1095] "This is, unfortunately, not a news article with a scientific basis. Dr. Staudt presents no evidence that this flood event is due to warmer air and an increase in atmospheric water vapor."
## [1096] "The model-data comparison for the tropical Pacific (24S-24N, 120E-80W) is shown in Figure 20. The surface of the tropical Pacific shows very little warming in 33 years. According to the models, if manmade greenhouse gases were responsible for the warming of the surface of the global oceans, the tropical Pacific should have warmed at a rate of 0.18 deg C/decade, but the tropical Pacific has warmed very little."
## [1097] "When all is said and done, they report that their results \"show no significant trend in potential intensity from 1980 to 1995 and no consistent trend from 1975 to 1995.\" What is more, they report that between 1975 and 1980, \"while SSTs rose, PI decreased, illustrating the hazards of predicting changes in hurricane intensity from projected SST changes alone.\""
## [1098] "12. More recently, in response to the data showing no warming for the last 10 years, I have seen new claims that global land temperatures are now deemed irrelevant. The newly discovered measure of importance is the rise in ocean temperature, since it is now claimed that this is by far the largest planetary heat sink. If that claim is true, it makes all the previous data claiming to show strong global warming over the period 1975 to 1998 also irrelevant. To suggest that from 1975 to 1998, the energy went into warming the land and air and then abruptly in 1998 it stopped doing that and the heat instead went into heating the oceans is, to me, completely absurd. Nature simply does not work that way. It is like claiming you put the kettle on, for the first minute the energy goes into heating the water and then abruptly it stops heating the water and starts heating the room instead."
## [1099] "As for the supposedly \"extreme\" weather year of 2012, things were also not as they appeared. Strong tornadoes have been on the decline in the U.S. since the 1950s, and climatologist Roy Spencer pointed out that since there was warming during this time \"Obviously, the conclusion should be that warming causes fewer strong tornadoes, not more (Or, maybe a lack of tornadoes causes global warming!).\""
## [1100] "The study found significant variation between decades in both the raw and adjusted data, with the years between 1908 -1934, 1977 1988 and 1998 2013 featuring a relatively high numbers of reported floods."
## [1101] "Dr. Walt Meier at NSIDC has told me that the Arctic was ice free several times during the the last 15,000 years. Yet somehow, the bears survived without us coddling them. Im guessing too that Neanderthals were in no way responsible for the ice-free Arctic, because they didnt own any Winnebagos."
## [1102] "This post contains graphs of running trends in global surface temperature anomalies for periods of 13+ and 17 years using GISS global (land+ocean) surface temperature data. They indicate that we have not seen a warming halt (based on 13 years+ trends) this long since the mid-1970s or a warming slowdown (based on 17-years trends) since about 1980. I used to rotate the data suppliers for this portion of the update, also using NCDC and HADCRUT. With the data from those two suppliers lagging by a month in the updates, Ive standardized on GISS for this portion."
## [1103] "The sun may be entering a period of reduced activity that could result in lower temperatures on Earth, according to Japanese researchers."
## [1104] "The Fremantle tide gauge result, the only other tide gauge operational in Australia over more than a century, shows the same modest sea level rise and about zero acceleration in perfect agreement with the worldwide result and the result of Sydney."
## [1105] "Since 1998 the global mean temperature has not risen significantly. While the global temperature rose by about 0.5C from the 1970s until the end of the 1990s, it has stagnated for the last 15 years, though at a high level. The stagnation surprised a lot of experts, who are now searching for possible causes for this development."
## [1106] "The fact of the matter is that the climate of the western United States features periods of very droughty conditions. Figure 3 shows the complete 108-year history of the PDSI for the Southwest. The current conditions were rivaled in the mid-1950s and exceeded in the first several years of the 20th century (and in case any of the editorial staff of the Times are readingglobal temperatures were quite cooler then than they are now!)."
## [1107] "If we entered another Dalton type minimum post 2019, the present positive Global Temperature Anomaly would be completely eliminated."
## [1108] "A recent study of tide gauges showed a slight decrease in sea level rise rates since 1970"
## [1109] "During 2014, sea ice extent has been above normal for 245 days, at an average of 295,000 sq km."
## [1110] "Furthermore the Death et al. 2012 study states: The disturbance data for COTS and cyclones show periodic and random fluctuations but no systematic long-term variation over the 27 year observation period."
## [1111] "Since the 1950s the world's temperature has risen by 0.12C per decade - but since 1998 it has slowed to 0.05C per decade."
## [1112] "The Antarctic Sea Ice Extent on Sept 13 2014 may have set a new all time record (at least for the satellite era, we don??t have data prior to that)."
## [1113] "Februarys Update news: According to revised official Met office 1 figures, January 2008 was still the coldest month globally in 14 years 2 . At only 0.056 C higher than the nominal reference 3 We must look back to February 1994 to find a colder month. Global temperatures peaked in February 1998 at 0.75C and with February coming in at 0.194 C there is a definite and accelerating cooling trend of -0.1 C /decade."
## [1114] "And when one examines the last 17-years, the satellite global temperature trend becomes slightly less than zero (i.e. global cooling). As a prominent climate alarmist scientist determined recently in a peer reviewed paper:"
## [1115] "In 2005, they would tell us that every season would bring its ever increasing number of hurricanes. The number of Katrinas would skyrocket and they would eventually kill everyone. However, a sequence of average and below-the-average hurricane seasons has led the climate cultists to change their preferred doomsday scenario dozens of times in recent years. One could say that every time the weather changed, their holy scripture was rewritten, too."
## [1116] "Famed hurricane forecaster Dr. William Gray has issued his hurricane season forecast for 2012 and predicts below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall."
## [1117] "Accelerating sea levels swamping the world's coastal regions is the \"bread & butter\" fear of global warmista scientists - tide gauge station empirical evidence however does not support the CAGW predictions (hysteria)"
## [1118] "Barely twelve months after its Meteorological Office said the 2009-10 winter was the coldest in three decades, Britain endured its coldest December-January since 1683. Because the United Kingdom's ultra green energy policies have driven heating costs into the stratosphere, British pensioners rode buses or spent all day in libraries to stay warm, then shivered all night in their apartments. Tens of thousands risked hypothermia, trying to control costs by bundling up and turning the heat down or off. Many died."
## [1119] "This example is from Victoria, not New South Wales, but sea level must have roughly the same rises and falls all over the world. So the whole world should be alarmed, not just New South Wales. Indeed the IPCC and CSIRO try to alarm the world with stories of drowning of low islands, like Tuvalu. But detailed mapping has shown that Tuvalu, and many other coral islands, have actually grown over the past 20 years."
## [1120] "This comes at the heels of last months reports from Britain where long-range forecasters warned of below average temperatures from October through February, along with lots of whites stuff, which just a few years ago was said would be rare and exciting in the future because of global warming."
## [1121] "Here are two web references to support the above evidence of global cooling in North America: http://wattsupwiththat.com and http://ca.news.yahoo.com/blogs ."
## [1122] "In North Redfield, when it finally stopped at around 9:45 Friday morning, Carol Yerdon had measured 72 inches (185 cm) of snow that had fallen out of the sky for an impressive snow base of 41 inches."
## [1123] "Arctic sea ice may be more resilient than previously thought, according to new research. Satellite data reported in a new paper shows that sea ice volumes in the spring months have been stable over the four years from 2010 to 2014 and that Autumn sea ice volumes in 2013 and 2014 were significantly up on prior years. -- Reporting Climate Science, 20 July 2015"
## [1124] "This year has been the quietest Atlantic hurricane season for decades. No Category 3 or stronger storm has made landfall in the US since Katrina in 2005 the longest hurricane 'drought' on record."
## [1125] "A short piece entitled \"Frigid Southern Hemisphere Winter: A Preview Of A Cold Winter Coming In The Northern Hemisphere?\" is here . (It looks like the winter in question is June through August, 2007). An excerpt: Santiago, Chilean capital, had its coldest winter since the Little Ice Age. The last time it was so cold there was in 1885 (see Padahuel plot from NASA GISS). ... By the way, much of Australia, too had a cold winter, with a record cold June."
## [1126] "History confirms adaptation to cold is a bigger challenge and that is where the temperatures are heading. Global temperature and sunspot activity are related through variations in cosmic radiation reaching the earth and changing cloud cover. More sunspots relate to warmer temperatures and fewer to colder. Currently sunspot numbers are the lowest since a previous cold spell associated with the Dalton Minimum between 1790 and 1830. There was an even lower number of sunspots during the Maunder Minimum between 1645 and 1710 coincident with an even colder spell, known as the Little Ice Age. Some, including me, think that such a low cycle is increasingly more likely."
## [1127] "Since temperatures have not been rising for over a decade, projections of increasing temperatures from increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) are not valid. There is no logical reason to accept assertions that projections from models that failed to predict the pause or plateau in temperatures are capable of projecting future temperatures."
## [1128] "Heavy snow fell with high intensity in the region of Korcs, the thickness of which has reached 10 cm (4 inches), while Dardh reaches 20 cm (8 inches)."
## [1129] "The coupled ocean-atmosphere processes of El Nio and La Nia, the largest contributors to natural variations in global temperature and precipitation on annual, multiyear, and decadal timescales. (Recall that the 1997/98 El Nio was determined to be the cause of extreme weather around the globe. For years we heard that every weather event was caused by El Nio or La Nina. Not long thereafter that shifted to greenhouse gasessolely for political reasons.)"
## [1130] "In the last decade, the Arctic ice and snow cap has expanded 12 per cent, and for the first time in this century. ships making for Iceland ports have been impeded by drifting ice."
## [1131] "The claimed melt areas of Antarctica (Larsen, WAIS) have excess sea ice, indicating the water and air is persistently colder than normal and nearor below the freezing point."
## [1132] "No doubt that is why, although the models predicted that global warming would accelerate during the first decade of the 21st century, so far this century there has been no recorded global warming at all."
## [1133] "Dr. Hoerling has published research suggesting that the 2010 Russian heat wave was largely a consequence of natural climate variability , and a forthcoming study he carried out on the Texas drought of 2011 also says natural factors were the main cause."
## [1134] "Arctic ice shrinks annually when Earth is too warm, but Siberian and Canadian snowfall increases, increasing Northern Hemisphere solar reflectivity, causing Earth to cool and ice to grow again. A plausible mechanism for these regular 40,000-year ice age cycles has been related to the shallowness of the Barents Sea south of Spitsbergen where the Gulf Stream can break through to the Arctic Ocean. Data indicate another regular ice age began since 2000. CO 2 is not involved."
## [1135] "The new snowfall brought the depth of accumulated snow to 65 centimetres (26 inches), setting an all-time record for April."
## [1136] "Your SUV has overheated the planet, and caused one of the coldest years on record in the US."
## [1137] "Nightly television pictures of the tragic destruction from tornadoes over the past months might make one wonder if the frequency of tornadoes is increasing, perhaps due to the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. But as one can read at Andrew Revkin's New York Times blog, dotearth, \"There is no evidence of any trend in the number of potent tornadoes (category F2 and up) over the past 50 years in the United States, even as global temperatures have risen markedly.\""
## [1138] "Well, they hadnt. On all five global temperature datasets, the rate of global warming in the 25 years since 1990 has been half of the central business-as-usual estimate which the IPCC had so confidently but misguidedly predicted, even though CO2 concentration has risen faster than the IPCCs then prediction. As Professor Feynman used to say, If it disagrees with experiment, its wrong."
## [1139] "The Ross Ice Shelf retreated 15 feet per day from 1900 to 1930. As far as I can tell, New York and LA are still there."
## [1140] "What a load of BS. It has been cold all month and lots of snow. The albedo of the Greenland ice sheet is very high. These people have got to stop lying at some point."
## [1141] "U.S. and European Union envoys are seeking more clarity from the United Nations on a slowdown in global warming that climate skeptics have cited as a reason not to panic about environmental changes, leaked documents show."
## [1142] "Since the beginning of 2015, the SPC has issued only four tornado watches and no severe thunderstorm watches, which is less than 10 percent of the typical number of 52 tornado watches issued by mid-March. The approximately 20 tornadoes reported since January 1 is well below the 10-year average of 130 for that time period."
## [1143] "Looking for acceleration in sea level data can be like looking for a needle in a haystack. The average global sea level rise rate for the 20th century was about 1.8 mm per year. But the fluctuations from year to year or even month to month at any particular site or region can be hundreds of times greater than the yearly average."
## [1144] "Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more damaging than global warming would have been."
## [1145] "Since satellites began monitoring surface temperatures in the last thirty years, there has been no statistical increase in warming. The IPCC predicts a 2C rise by 2100, or as little as .3 and 4.8 at the most."
## [1146] "In fact, I repeat, global temperature hasnt risen at all in 15 years . How come? Natural factors stopped playing a role, remember?"
## [1147] "\"Heat waves have actually diminished, not increased. There is not an uptick in the number or strength of storms (in fact storms are diminishing)."
## [1148] "In AR4 IPCC projects warming of 0.2C per decade for the next two decades in a variety of its climate change scenarios. That will take a lot more warming than weve seen in recent decades. And with the leveling off of the trend in recent years, even if an upward trend resumes, at present it seems highly unlikely that we will see a rise of 0.4C over the next two decades. Of course, the future has a way of humbling all forecasts. But perhaps the apocalypse is not as near at hand as some fear."
## [1149] "You believe that the atmosphere has continued to warm for the last 17+ years despite rapid growth of CO2. 97% of real climate scientists acknowledge that it hasn??t. They call it the ???pause?? or ???hiatus?? although there is no scientific evidence that warming will pick up again or when."
## [1150] "From this article, we learn from the actual data that (a) sea level is generally rising, (b) the rate of rise decelerated during the 20th century, (c) the rate of sea level rise over the past two decades has been both positive and negative, (d) the rate of sea level rise has been quite small over the last few years, and (e) stations can witness an increase or decrease of sea level quite independently of one another."
## [1151] "Kumar et al. reviewed precipitation records over the period from 1871 to 2005. In summary, there was no significant trend for rainfall across India during this period of \"unprecedented\" warming that the IPCC contends was wreaking rainfall havoc on India and the world."
## [1152] "The almost total absence of such intense storms in the last two decades is notable."
## [1153] "2010 is the hottest year ever, which explains why US winter temperatures have been dropping at a rate of more than 30 degrees per century since 1998."
## [1154] "What this means, is that the observed rate of global temperature change has been quite slow during this time, and while perhaps not totally unprecedented in the realm of model projections, at the very least, it is starting to become pretty unusual."
## [1155] "Analysis of the suns varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCCs speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected."
## [1156] "Hansen forecast peak ice loss for the Weddell Sea. Instead, it has seen peak ice gain and is at an all time record this year. Another inverted Hansen prediction."
## [1157] "Then I will follow up with observations which run counter to his (and his co-authors) claim that an increase in ocean surface wind-driven mixing has caused the recent lack of global warming."
## [1158] "Lest anyone see a greenhouse fingerprint in the larger number of hurricanes since 1975, 16 were remants of tropical storms. In contrast, only one remnant is identified for 1950-1974 and none is identified for 1900-1949. No doubt New York experienced many hurricane remnants that were not identified as such before the advent of weather satellites and hurricane hunter aircraft."
## [1159] "5) Isnt the Melting of Arctic Sea Ice Evidence of Warming? Warming, yesmanmade warming, no. Arctic sea ice naturally melts back every summer, but that meltback was observed to reach a peak in 2007. But we have relatively accurate, satellite-based measurements of Arctic (and Antarctic) sea ice only since 1979. It is entirely possible that late summer Arctic Sea ice cover was just as low in the 1920s or 1930s, a period when Arctic thermometer data suggests it was just as warm. Unfortunately, there is no way to know, because we did not have satellites back then. Interestingly, Antarctic sea ice has been growing nearly as fast as Arctic ice has been melting over the last 30+ years."
## [1160] "Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060.He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today."
## [1161] "Finally, global sea ice area is close to 1 million sq km above the 1979-2008 mean. It is indeed remarkable just how normal global sea ice has been throughout this year, bobbing up and down around the mean."
## [1162] "Hurricane strength is said to be increasing. This can likely be attributed to increasing satellite coverage and resolution, which tends over time to more accurately capture the hours when a storm is at maximum strength. A study that corrects for storm detection ability over time (Vecchi and Knutson 2011) finds no trend in Atlantic hurricanes over the period of 1878 to 2008. Studies of landfall hurricanes (Balling and Cerveny 2003) also show no trend. The last cat 3+ landfall hurricanes to hit (i.e., with the hurricane eye) the continental US were in 2005"
## [1163] "Nuccitelli adds, We know that the planet will continue to warm as long as we continue to increase the greenhouse effect. Again, he would have benefited from a more careful use of language. We know that adding CO2 or other greenhouse gases to the air will cause warming, but that cannot prevent natural factors from causing a countervailing cooling from time to time, which is why we have had the 17-year pause in global warming that Railroad Engineer Pachauri has now admitted. Spencer 1, Nuccitelli 0."
## [1164] "Note also that the Academys metric was global temperature trends. Since this metric now shows a warming halt, true believers are instead citing (unmeasurable) deep ocean heat content. Will the Academy stick with its original temperature metric? And which of the 66 excuses in the recent literature (as of last November) will it use to explain the lack of CO2-caused warming (other than that the theory about the CO2 control-knob is wrong)?"
## [1165] "Climate Depot Resonse : Superstorm Sandy linked to man-made global warming?! Please Mr. President, read up on science before you embarrass yourself. See: Prof. Roger Pielke Jr.: 'Remarkably, the U.S. is currently experiencing the longest-ever recorded period with no strikes of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane' Sandy was terrible, but we're currently in a relative hurricane 'drought', Pielke Jr. explained .."
## [1166] "Reuters today reported that rain and late-season snow continues to affect corn, soybean, and winter wheat crops across the U.S."
## [1167] "Temperatures across much of the north-central U.S. on Tuesday were 20 to 40 degrees below average in many areas, the National Weather Service said."
## [1168] "All of this will be in the report. What won't be there is a more thorough explanation for the supposed decline in warming."
## [1169] "Therefore, those who are anxious to believe that the long pause in global warming is what the models expected, or at least allowed for, can take a crumb of comfort from that."
## [1170] "\"Warming is accelerating and sea levels will rise more than expected.\" The IPCC mid-range 10 year projection is 1.26 inches and may not clearly be distinguished from the change registered since the ice age ended, ie for some 10,000 years."
## [1171] "1. Tuvalu and many other South Pacific Islands are not sinking, claims they are due to global warming driven sea level rise areopportunistic"
## [1172] "Newsreader: The Met Office has revised downwards its projection for climate change through to 2017. The new figure suggests that although global temperatures will be forced above their long-term average because of greenhouse gases, the recent slowdown in warming will continue. More details from our environment analyst Roger Harrabin."
## [1173] "New peer reviewed study: Surge in North Atlantic hurricanes due to better detectors, not climate change"
## [1174] "Some scientists, however, have been arguing the world is indeed headed for a cooling phase based on solar cycles. Scientists from Germany to India have argued that weakening solar activity could bring about another Little Ice Age."
## [1175] "If the planet was actually warming, like it did from 1917 to 1936, I wouldnt be able to construct a graph which was flat for 19 years. It would look like the graph below."
## [1176] "So 11% of worlds land ice shrinking Front page headlines. 89% of worlds land ice growing. Silence."
## [1177] "Last October, the Daily Mail (London) announced that temperature data from the United Kingdoms Meteorological Office showed no global warming for 16 years. In December, an advance chart from the upcoming Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed a divergence between model projections and actual global temperatures. In January of this year, the Met Office revised its forecast of temperatures down to almost no increase over the next five years."
## [1178] "Our temperature records are very short, and a 16-year period of warming ended about the time today's high school graduates were born. The President could just as accurately said there hasn't been any warming since Bill Clinton was President and that one of his own agencies released data this month showing the United States has cooled slightly over the last decade , but that didn't fit his political agenda."
## [1179] "Despite Real Climates predictable take on the situation, many long-time students of Antarctic climate change ( including usns here at WCR ) yawned. It has been known for decades that there is a net warming in Antarctic surface temperature that began during the International Geophysical Year in 1957. However, what is also well known, is that the vast majority of the observed warming in Antarctica took place from the late 1950s through the early 1970s and that since thenduring a period going on 40 years nowthere has been very little net temperature change over Antarctica taken as a whole."
## [1180] "If the Met Office is right, and temperatures rise to record levels in the next 5 five years, then the sceptics will have no-where to hide. If the Met Office is wrong, and in the next few years we have not exceeded 1998 temperature levels, then this would cause big questions to be asked remember their simulations rule out zero trends for 15 years or more."
## [1181] "By Paul Homewood h/t Sunshine Hours http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/oct/09/why-is-antarctic-sea-ice-at-record-levels-despite-global-warming According to Professor Turner, expanding Antarctic sea ice was the last thing climate scientists expected. Meanwhile, the Guardian also report: Dr Guy Williams, a sea ice scientist at the Tasmanian Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (Imas) , In some ways its a bit counterintuitive for people trying to understand how global warming is affecting our polar regions, but in fact its actually completely in line with how climate scientists expect Antarctica and the Southern Ocean to respond. And they wonder why people dont take them seriously."
## [1182] "Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more damaging than global warming would have been??"
## [1183] "\"... Found little or no evidence for on-going positive sea level acceleration for the tide gauges located in the North Sea in between 1870 and the late 1980's of the sort suggested for the 20 th century Itself by climate models. \""
## [1184] "Not anymore. The ozone hole closing is counter-acting the warming affect. But this study is still using models, read here . The models depend on the temperature increasing. What if the temperature doesnt follow the rules? And it has not over the last decade plus."
## [1185] "The host of the interview starts by telling the audience that climate scientists have come under pressure because the average temperature indeed has not risen in 15 years . Kirchhof:"
## [1186] "They pointed out, without too much ado, the innocent fact that since the beginning of the observations in 1979, the year 2013 has seen the greatest increase of the Arctic sea ice area relatively to the previous year's summer minimum."
## [1187] "Above are some graphs for those of you interested in the remarkable, ongoing drought in intense hurricane landfalls in the US, which is stretching close to 10 years. The top graph shows the days in between intense (category 3+) landfalls in the US since 1900. The bottom graph shows the same information, but only for Florida landfalls."
## [1188] "Could the Earth be cooling its heels? One thing could quash the debate over global warming real quick global cooling and it could be on the way. This brave, against-the-grain prognostication that the Earths average temperature could be actually starting to decrease comes from agricultural meteorologist Drew Lerner, who in circles of the global warming in-crowd is known as a denier...."
## [1189] "9. Most hurricanes ever in one day: On August 22, 1893 , four hurricanes were occurring simultaneously: storm #3 approaching Nova Scotia, Canada, storm #4 between Bermuda and the Bahamas, storm #6 northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and storm #7 west of the Cape Verde Islands. Storm #4 would end up making a direct hit on New York City as a Category 1 hurricane two days later and storm #6 ending up hitting Georgia and South Carolina as a Category 3 hurricane (the \"Sea Islands Hurricane\") and killing 1000-2000 people. The only other known date with four hurricanes occurring at the same time was September 25, 1998 , when hurricanes Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl were in existence."
## [1190] "The UK is expecting the heaviest snow in about 20 yearstomorrow . ??? Snow and freezing weather threaten to shut down BritainArctic blizzards are set to cause a national shutdown on Monday as forecasters warn of the most widespread snowfall for almost 20 years.?? ??? Now is the time you??d expect to see the daffodils coming out but we??re not expecting them for two or three weeks at best if it warms up. ??"
## [1191] "With one day to go, February 2015??s average temperature is 14.5 degrees. That??s the coldest since 1875, when the average temperature was 12.2 degrees, according to the National Weather Service."
## [1192] "Amplifications and Corrections : Last weeks TWTW discussed sea level rise, the uncertainty, and the possible acceleration of the rate of rise. Physicist Donald Rapp send a set of papers a making a powerful argument that It is possible that all (or most) of the claimed acceleration is due to ground water depletion, not global warming. He may be right. We appreciate all those who take the time to send amplifications and corrections."
## [1193] "Rising sea levels threaten every coastline. Reality: sea levels have been rising on and off since the end of the last ice age 13,000 years ago. The rate of sea level rise has not increased in recent decades over the nineteenth and twentieth century average."
## [1194] "We were told that the mild winters we experienced in Europe were due to global warming. Now, suddenly, we are getting hit with yet another nasty cold winter."
## [1195] "Ice coverage on the Great Lakes reached 85.4 percent on Feb. 18, marking the second winter in a row that ice coverage has exceeded 80 percent. This figure has fluctuated up and down slightly since then and was at 88.8 percent as of Feb. 28. Of course, last year the Great Lakes went on to record their second highest total ice coverage in records dating to 1973."
## [1196] "The continent has a long history of rainfall fluctuations of varying lengths and intensities. The worst droughts were those of the 1910s, which affected east and west Africa alike . They were generally followed by increasing rainfall amounts, but negative trends were observed again from 1950 onwards culminating, in West Africa, in 1984 ."
## [1197] "And furthermore, Hockey Schtick reports on a new paper that shows an ice sheet on the northern tip of Greenland has remained unchanged or grown slightly in the last few years:"
## [1198] "The Hadcrut3 average anomaly so far for 2013 is 0.388. This would rank 12th if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.548. The highest ever monthly anomaly was in February of 1998 when it reached 0.756. One has to go back to the 1940s to find the previous time that a Hadcrut3 record was not beaten in 10 years or less. The anomaly in 2012 was 0.406 and it came in 10th."
## [1199] "These scientists came to the same conclusions the global warming trend is done, and a cooling trend is about to kick in."
## [1200] "UN scientists said today they are '95 per cent' certain that climate change is man made, but still could not explain why the world has barely got any hotter in the last 15 years."
## [1201] "Global warming and climate change are usually thought to mean that world sea levels will rise, perhaps disastrously. But according to US government boffins, in recent times (2010 and 2011, to be precise) phenomena driven by human carbon emissions have actually caused world sea levels to fall."
## [1202] "However reality and comon sense are absent when climate panicmongering is afoot. So Jersey run off is due to climate change even though there has been no warming for 18 years? And Sierra shows no trend to increased rainfall at all?"
## [1203] "Snow accumulated to a depth of more than one meter in places ??? Pyrnes-Atlantiques in Haute-Garonne (Aspe Osseau). Above 1800 meters, snow thickness reached 1.50 meters and 3.10 meters at Gavarnie station located 1850 meters."
## [1204] "The mismatch between rising greenhouse-gas emissions and not-rising temperatures is among the biggest puzzles in climate science just now. It does not mean global warming is a delusion. Flat though they are, temperatures in the first decade of the 21st century remain almost 1C above their level in the first decade of the 20th. But the puzzle does need explaining."
## [1205] "There was, in fact, a fairly rapid decrease in Arctic sea ice extent sea ice extent over the last few years.But thelosses werealmost entirely recovered in an unprecedented ice build-up of Arctic sea ice in the last months of 2007 and the first months of 2008"
## [1206] "The UK researchers determined that \"the majority of the largest and most widespread recorded floods in Great Britain have occurred during cool, moist periods,\" and that \"comparison of the British Holocene palaeoflood series ... with climate reconstructions from tree-ring patterns of subfossil bog oaks in northwest Europe also suggests that a similar relationship between climate and flooding in Great Britain existed during the Holocene, with floods being more frequent and larger during relatively cold, wet periods.\" In addition, they say that \"an association between flooding episodes in Great Britain and periods of high or increasing cosmogenic 14 C production suggests that centennial-scale solar activity may be a key control of non-random changes in the magnitude and recurrence frequencies of floods.\" What it means"
## [1207] "Curiously, Paul Voosens October 2011 article Provoked scientists try to explain lag in global warming includes quotes from a handful of well-known climate scientistsincluding Kevin Trenberth. Voosen had this to say about Trenberths opinion of ARGO:"
## [1208] "As you can see, rather than increasing, the rate of sea level rise has dropped in recent years. And while it may well start to rise again, it is certainly not accelerating as the AGW hypothesis requires."
## [1209] "Converting millimeters into inches, in 2005, the net contribution of Greenland ice mass changes to sea level rise is about 0.009 inches. This rate of ice mass loss translates into about 1 inch of sea level rise per century. Therefore, CEI's message is correct: When both sides of the story are presented, the case for alarm collapses."
## [1210] "It has been 27,658 days since the most powerful hurricane to ever hit the US struck. CO2 was well below the safe level of 350 ppm at the time."
## [1211] "The net temperature change over the period is zero. There has been no warming or cooling during US summers since the start of records in the 1890s. The 1930s were by far the hottest decade."
## [1212] "WITHIN the scientific community it has generally been accepted that as a continent, Antarctica, has been getting colder or at least not warming. Those who subscribe to the general consensus that climate change is driven by manmade carbon dioxide emissions, and that the world is generally getting warmer, have claimed this is not inconsistent with their greenhouse gas theory or the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models. They have explained that Antarctica is a general exception to the global trend because of a loss of ozone in the polar stratosphere."
## [1213] "Here is an updated version of my 2000 prediction. My qualitative prediction was that extrapolation of past temperature and PDO patterns indicate global cooling for several decades. Quantifying that prediction has a lot of uncertainty. One approach is to look at the most recent periods of cooling and project those as possibilities (1) the 1945-1975cooling, (2) the 1880-1915 cooling, (3) the Dalton cooling (1790-1820), (4) the Maunder cooling (1650-1700). I appended the temperature record for the 1945-1975 cooling to the temperature curve beginning in 2000 to see what this might look like (see below). If the cooling turns out to be deeper, reconstructions of past temperatures suggest 0.3C cooler for the 1880-1915 cooling, about 0.7C for the Dalton cooling (square), and about 1.2C for the Maunder cooling (circle). We wont know until we get there which is most likely."
## [1214] "A new report written by Dr David Whitehouse and published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation concludes that there has been no statistically significant increase in annual global temperatures since 1997."
## [1215] "After more than three decades of being told that the Earth was dangerously heating up by people like Al Gore and the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there are more voices warning that the current cold cycle that will last, at a minimum, several decades."
## [1216] "Additionally Dr. Christy??s testimony addressed the hundreds of years long natural climate variation of severe droughts in the Sierra Nevada mountains in California and the Rocky Mountain upper Colorado River basis. His testimony showed that the western U.S. will likely see increasing droughts in the coming years because of natural climate variation reflecting patterns long exhibited in the regional paleoclimate drought record as noted below from his testimony."
## [1217] "In Article # 1, SEPP Chairman Fred Singer discusses some of the issues regarding sea level rise and why it is difficult to be precise. In summary, unless solid observational evidence is offered otherwise, there is no reason to assume that 21 st century sea level rise will be greater than 20 th century sea level rise namely about 7 inches (18 cm)."
## [1218] "But is Haiyans destruction the result of man-made global warming? Most likely not. The U.N.s own Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes 2012 report on managing the risks of extreme events reported, Low confidence in any observed long-term (40 years or more) increases in tropical cyclone activity, and noted that there is low confidence in attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences. Additionally, the report stated that it is likely the global frequency of tropical cyclones will either decrease or remain essentially the same in response to global warming. The report also suggested that average wind speeds may increase later in this century, but not necessarily in all regions."
## [1219] "Ice Ages and Sea Level Watts Up With That? According to these calculations, the Earth is at the beginning of a 20,000 year plunge into the next ice age. Re: Now They Tell Us - Greg Pollowitz - Planet Gore on National Review Online I was at an investing conference where one of the panelists basically said: all this talk about electric cars and solar panels and such is great, but what we're talking about here is \"a 50-year solution, not a five-year one.\" Just in time for Malia Obama's inauguration."
## [1220] "The effects of weak solar activity have been notable. The United Kingdom just suffered through a winter with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees C below normal, and German meteorologists report that 2013 has been the coldest year in 208 years. (1)"
## [1221] "Even Christina Figueres, DeBoers successor at the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, could proclaim victory. She wants to keep the planets temperature from rising more than the internationally agreed maximum of two degrees Celsius. That goal has arguably been reached already. There has been no detectable increase in average global temperatures for 16 years."
## [1222] "The hottest days measured in Sheffield were 1976 and 1990, when a record of 34.3 was set. in contrast, the highest temperature in the last decade was 31.4C."
## [1223] "This observation, of course, is a crisis for CAGW alarmism and therefore must be solved by a computer model. The authors simply create a hydrological model programmed to say that the reason why sea levels have decelerated is because it must be raining more over land due to ENSO and therefore the land ate the 31% decrease in sea level rise . The authors admit there is no data to support land water stores prior to GRACE since ~2003, therefore they just fabricate estimate the comparison data for the period 1994-2002 of how much sea level rise was ameliorated by land precipitation. Abracadabra, the land must have more than eaten the sea level rise from AGW, allowing it to decelerate, and the AGW \"missing heat\" is still very much alive somewhere in the ocean."
## [1224] "In his research, Lu discovers that while there was global warming from 1950 to 2000, there has been global cooling since 2002. The cooling trend will continue for the next 50 years, according to his new research observations."
## [1225] "The IPCC concedes for the first time that a 15 year-long period of no significant warming occurred since 1998 despite a 7% rise in carbon dioxide (CO2). It also acknowledges that on a longer (more climatic) time scale the rate of global warming has decelerated since 1951, despite an accompanying 80 ppm or 26% increase in carbon dioxide (312 to 392 ppm)."
## [1226] "But then, just like the global cooling of the ??70s, the warming stopped and was replaced by (wait for it!) more cooling. ???Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centers now accept that there has been a ???pause?? in global warming since 1997,?? the UK??s Daily Telegraph reported just last September."
## [1227] "This snowy winter will extend over three months and spread into the flatlands. And it is going to be bitter cold. For Germany the fourth colder-than-normal winter in a row lies ahead. The fourth below normal winter in a row would be a small sensation."
## [1228] "The alarming rise in global temperatures from about 1980 to 2000 gave much concern around possible serious future climate changes, global warming, that could result from the increasing levels of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gasses in our atmosphere. However, as shown in the strong rise in global temperatures faded after year 2000 and was replaced by a rather steady level or even small decreases in the global temperatures from around 2001 to present (2013). This development took away some of the incitement to cut down on human-induced growth in greenhouse gasses."
## [1229] "In November, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO dropped to its lowest level since 1961 at -2.33. The 1961 level was -2.69. PDO is an after effect of the ENSO signal and reflects a spatial pattern of the amount of cooler water in the north Pacific. Negative levels are accompanied by muchcooler weather in the Northern Hemisphere especially in North America. This indexstarted to go negative in 2007 andbased on historical patterns, it could be negative for the next 20-30 years, signifying cooler weather for the same period.This has already been apparentthe last four yearsinthe North American weather especially the winters."
## [1230] "The over all 15 levels - with different registration periods - average Relative sea-rise (RSLR) for the German Bight is from 1843 to 2008 about 32 cm, the secular increase in the 20th century around 20 cm. The GIA-corrected values (see also Chapter 3) obtained for the above mentioned periods ASLR one of about 22 or 13 cm. There is no secular acceleration, the polynomial in Fig.5 other hand, shows even a slight weakening of the secular increase. A CO2-climate signal (AGW) can not be found."
## [1231] "NIPCC: \"Flood frequency and severity in many areas of the world were higher historically during the Little Ice Age and other cool eras than during the twentieth century. Climate change ranks well below other contributors, such as dikes and levee construction, to increased flooding.\""
## [1232] "the global mean temperature dropped to 2.725 K by now (outside the urban heat islands such as stars, plus minus the fractions of the degree from the image above), confirming worries about global cooling ;-)"
## [1233] "Let me just mention one graph ??? the only \"apparently non-trivial\" argument against Pielke's assertions that I have seen anywhere in the hurricane of vitriol directed against his self-evident assertions. You see that the \"number of natural catastrophes\" has more than doubled over the last 30 years. But one must be careful about the definition of a \"natural catastrophe\". Note that in 1980, the world population was less than 4.5 bilion, so it has \"almost\" doubled since that time, too. Moreover, the people are much wealthier and they have many more things that may be damaged or insured and damages of these things count as \"natural catastrophes\"."
## [1234] "New findings indicate the rate of sea level rise over the past two decades in on the order of 1.7 0.8 mm/year, which is far less than that projected by climate alarmists Read More"
## [1235] "This warming hiatus happened despite the loud and hysterical shrieking by the climate scientists on the public dole that current CO2 emissions would cause rapid, unequivocal, irrefutable accelerated warming."
## [1236] "Antarctic sea ice coverage at an all-time record high"
## [1237] "Arctic sea ice extent is at a 10 year high, and very close to the 1981-2010 average."
## [1238] "Some scientists predict that the Sun is heading for a long slump in solar activity known as a Grand Solar Minimum. If this happens, it is possible that Britain could return to conditions similar to those 350 years ago when sunspots vanished during the Little Ice Age, when ice fairs were often held on the frozen Thames in London. ???Paul Simons, The Times, 10 October 2011"
## [1239] "Arctic cold blast, freezing rain/snow expected for New Years Day"
## [1240] "Arctic ice melt has dropped to almost zero. Comparing current ice vs. mid-September 2012, there is more than 100% more ice than at last years minimum. A rapid freeze between now and mid-September could make this number much larger."
## [1241] "In Figure 4, the situation is the same as the other regions: flat from 1900 to 1930, a sudden warming to the warmest year, 1934, cooling until 1980, warming to 2000, then cooling in the last decade."
## [1242] "As I started by saying. Sea ice is expected to decline because global temperatures were reported to be higher. However, it appears I was wrong. Because now sea ice is back to normal whilst global temperatures are being reported as high."
## [1243] "From September 2001 to November 2014, the warming trend on the mean of the 5 global-temperature datasets is nil. No warming for 13 years 3 months."
## [1244] "And has this 3-month spell been unprecedented? Nope, not even remotely so, I am afraid. As I have been pointing out for the last few weeks, there was a much wetter period during the winter of 1929/30. But, not only that, it also turns out that there were wetter periods in 2001/01 and 1960/61."
## [1245] "Those would be the polar ice caps which have the fourth highest extent on record."
## [1246] "Another sign is Central Europe refusing to warm further. Meteorologist Dominik Jung at Wetter.net here reports that Germanys 2013 year was the 2nd coldest in a decade. The mean temperature was only 0.4C over the 1961 1990 mean. Only 2010 was a bit colder."
## [1247] "Astonishingly, the predictions have been adopted uncritically as the basis for local planning. This is equivalent to introducing new housing regulations for the heating and cooling of Australian dwellings based upon global average temperature. Well, now that we have learned about the unsuitable nature of its sea-level speculations, what else do we know about the IPCC? Does it have form?"
## [1248] "(Photo Stephen Orsillo) The record-shattering snow that has shut down Boston's public transit system threatens to white out a global warming forum organized by Massachusetts Senate President Stanley Rosenberg (D, Amherst)."
## [1249] "We are almost half way through his 60 year, 1,000 mm forecast and sea level has risen zero mm near Canberra. Only 1,000 mm left to go in the next 30 years."
## [1250] "But there have been ups and downs. For example, there was cooling for several hundred years after the medieval warm period through to about 1900. Then there was warming until about 1945 followed by cooling through until 1975-76. The United Nations IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicted in 1990 that there would be continuous warming well into this century driven by rising levels of carbon dioxide. But in fact there has been cooling again over the last decade."
## [1251] "In both studies, we can certainly see evidence that extreme precipitation events are on the rise. But in both cases, when we explore just a little deeper into the story, we find no evidence of any unusual upward trend in the frequency of extreme precipitation events. The more we learn, the more skeptical we become."
## [1252] "There is no long-term trend in normalized extreme weather damages (losses adjusted for increases in wealth, population, and the consumer price index)."
## [1253] "Not only are the glaciers advancing, 87 of the glaciers have surged forward since the 1960s, says a recent article in Discovery News."
## [1254] "The last time global surface temperatures warmed at this low a rate for a 203-month period was the late 1970s, or about 1980. Also note that the sharp decline is similar to the drop in the 1940s, and, again, as youll recall, global surface temperatures remained relatively flat from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s."
## [1255] "Sea ice surrounding Antarctica is witnessing record growth, say scientists from NASAs Jet Propulsion Laband the British Antarctic Survey."
## [1256] "Robert Endlich, the meteorologist, reported: \"One item after another struck me as being completely at odds with measurements. For instance, Hansen claimed Earth's energy balance is out of balance, and we are warming rapidly, but recent global surface temperatures of land and water have not increased and, in fact, many measures show cooling over the past 17-19 years. In the U.S., there has not been a new state maximum temperature record set since 1995, and, in spite of the claims to the contrary, July 1936 is still the warmest month on record, set when CO2 was less than 300 parts per million. CO2 is now 395 PPM.\""
## [1257] "The experts concluded that the recent increase in impacts from tropical cyclones (including hurricanes) has largely been caused by rising concentrations of population and infrastructure in coastal regions."
## [1258] "Is flooding becoming more common in Europe as a result of global warming? Well not according to a recent study in the publication New Scientist, which examined this issue and found such claims to be awash in hype. According to scientists at the University of Leipzig in Germany and Reading University in the U.K., the historical record dating back over 1,000 years indicates no statistical upward trend of note, even when factoring in the devastating floods that left cities from Prague to Dresden awash with high water in 2002. While flooding hasn't increased, the study says, damage claims have. But this is because of changes in land use near rivers, not global warming. So it seems the claims linking flooding and global climate change are all wet indeed."
## [1259] "In terms of severity and geographic extent, the 2000-4 drought in the West exceeded such legendary events as the Dust Bowl of the 1930s. While that drought saw intervening years of normal rainfall, the years of the turn-of-the-century drought were consecutive. More seriously still, long-term climate records from tree-ring chronologies show that this drought was the most severe event of its kind in the western United States in the past 800 years. Though there have been many extreme droughts over the last 1,200 years, only three other events have been of similar magnitude, all during periods of megadroughts."
## [1260] "Sherman next admitted that yes, the stations showed a slight end-to-end drop over the time theyve run. That was nice to see. But he then argued the very brief temperature uptick in 2011-2012 means the long-term temperature trend may end up oscillating while remaining rather flat rather than being one of long-term cooling. OK, that may or may not turn out to be the case, but where did I claim that Shermans admitted 10-year cooling portends a longer-term cooling trend? Which part of Of course, 10 years is hardly enough to establish a long-term trend was Sherman incapable of understanding? Moreover, even if a long-term oscillating temperature stagnation does indeed occur, that would also support my larger argument that the temperature data contradict claims of accelerating warming."
## [1261] "either the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change, nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behavior over this region in recent decades, Hoerling told environmental writer Andrew Revkin."
## [1262] "Leaked United Nations report reveals the world's temperature hasn't risen for the last 15 years"
## [1263] "On the lack of warming over the last 15 years, Brnnimann admits that they were unusual, blaming it on the unexpected lack of strong El Nino events in the tropical Pacific . Yet he claims that this and the unusually cold European wintersover the last few years do not refute the CO2 greenhouse gas effect .However Brnnimann is forced to concede:"
## [1264] "At the same time, the GRACE gravitational-anomaly satellites, the most accurate method of measurement we have, showed sea level actually falling from 20032009."
## [1265] "Katrina has nothing to do with global warming. Nothing. It has everything to do with the immense forces of nature that have been unleashed many, many times before and the inability of humans, even the most brilliant engineers, to tame these forces."
## [1266] "Quoting the authors, their results \"show convincingly that the present drought is not unique and that drought has recurred on a centennial to interdecadal timescale during the last 1500 years.\" What it means"
## [1267] "Over the course of what climate alarmists call a century of unprecedented global warming, and contrary to the implications of nearly all 2xCO 2 GCM experiments, there has been no net change in either South African rainfall variability or the mean value of the Southern African Rainfall Index."
## [1268] "A new study of tree-ring data has concluded that not only has our climate often been noticeably hotter than today, temperatures have actually been on a falling trend for the past 2,000 years."
## [1269] "Some scientists have reported that we are perhaps headed towards a mini ice age. Back in 2011 US solar physicists announced that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earthfar from facing a global warming problemis actually headed into a mini ice age. The announcement came form scientists at the US National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the US Air Force Research Laboratory. Three different analyses of the Suns recent behavior all indicated that a period of unusually low solar activity may be about to begin. (5)"
## [1270] "Clermont in central Queensland had record-low temperatures on Friday, July 11, but broke records again on Saturday morning July 12, with the temperature dropping down to minus 4.5 degrees Celsius."
## [1271] "Observed global average temperatures (GAT) are, in fact, below IPCCs 2007 Assessment Reports lowestand most confidenttemperature predictions . The new view in the leaked AR5 shows a complete reversal of the AR4 view, which still touted catastrophic, anthropogenic global warming."
## [1272] "Dr. Held discusses the difference between Arctic temperatures and sea ice (receding) and Antarctic temperatures and sea ice (advancing). He believes that the Arctic and Antarctic are very different and will not behave the same. But, none of the models show Antarctic ice advancing, which is what is happening. He claims that the sea ice thickness is very thin and that it is mostly wind-blown ice. Unfortunately observations do not support this assertion."
## [1273] "The Sea Surface Temperature anomalies of the East Pacific Ocean, or approximately 33% of the surface area of the global oceans, have shown little to no long-term warming since 1982 based on the linear trend. And between upward shifts, the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for the rest of the world (67% of the global ocean surface area) remain relatively flat. As discussed in my book, anthropogenic forcings are said to be responsible for most of the rise in global surface temperatures over this period, but the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly graphs of those two areas prompt a two-part question: Since 1982, what anthropogenic global warming processes would overlook the Sea Surface Temperatures of 33% of the global oceans and have an impact on the other 67% but only during the months of the significant El Nio events of 1986/87/88, 1997/98 and 2009/10?"
## [1274] "Sea level appears to have risen about 8 inches since 1880. Have people moved? Have storm surges been more damaging? We saw with Sandy that timing is importantthe storm hit at high tide and that didnt help. But was it made even worse by the sea level rise due to global warming?"
## [1275] "To put things into even starker perspective, consider that from August 1954 through August 1955, the East Coast saw three different storms make landfall Carol, Hazel and Diane that in 2012 each would have caused about twice as much damage as Sandy."
## [1276] "A group of Geesthacht coastal researchers, together with engineers from the University of Siegen, has recently carried out an analysis of the rise in sea levels in the German Bight. All reliable water level measurements were evaluated for the first time, in order to determine how the mean sea level of the German Bight has changed. According to this evaluation, the sea level rose by approx. 20 centimetres in the last century, in recent times higher than in the years around 1960. However, similarly high increases in levels also occurred in the first half of the 20th century. They are, therefore, not unusual ."
## [1277] "I guess they should have asked about their chances for snow in the nation??s 4th-largest city on December 4th . Of course this is not evidence that discredits global warming trends. After all, it??s only a local event, and localized phenomena are only capable of proving global warming , not disproving it."
## [1278] "Central Europeans right now are scratching their heads, wondering how on Earth they are still shoveling snow past Easter. March in Germany, according to the German Weather Service DWD , was the 6th coldest since measurements began in 1881. Britain has just seen its coldest March in 100 years. In fact over the last few winters hundreds of cold and snowfall records have been shattered."
## [1279] "There has been a rise in temperature of a full degree since 1976. Note, though, how temperatures have flatlined in the last decade."
## [1280] "All the evidence points in the same direction there has been no warming in or around Antarctica since 1979. On the contrary, if there is any trend, it is to a cooler climate."
## [1281] "The graph above plots the ten year running mean of the number of category five hurricanes making landfall . As you can see, the peak occurred during the 1930s and it has been relatively level since. There were four category five hurricanes which made landfall between 1924 and 1935, but only two during the past decade. It has been 18 years since a category five hurricane struck the US."
## [1282] "The Great Storm of 1703 was the most severe storm or natural disaster ever recorded in the southern part of Great Britain. The Royal Navy lost 13 ships and 1500 seamen. Up to 15000 people died overall."
## [1283] "In Vanishing Ice Most Likely All Natural (transcipt here) I argued that Greenlands glaciers would soon stabilize and sea ice in the Barents Sea would soon recover based on trends in the transport of warm Atlantic water into the Arctic. Although a one-year recovery is much too short a period from which to derive reliable projections, it is exactly what natural climate dynamics predict."
## [1284] "Yesterday, the high temperature in New York, 59 degrees Fahrenheit, tied the record set in 1911 for the coldest August high ever and was 23 degrees below the normal high: The New York Sun The record cold high of 64 degrees Fahrenheit for August 21st, set in 1999, had to be edited, too. The new record is 5 degrees cooler than the previous one: CBS Summer 2007 is on its way to become one of the coolest summers on record: July was 1.5 degrees below the normal and August is so far 1 degree below the normal. Participants of the Simons Workshop on Long Island such as Aaron Bergman are freezing, too. But you won't hear these stories from RealClimate.org. The temperature in the Arctic is way more important for the society than the temperature in Manhattan, as long as it is warmer than average. ;-) These court jesters deny global warming and look how they dress up in August: how funny. ;-)"
## [1285] "NOAA Says U.S. Cooling Over Last 15 Years: -3.2 F/Century Rate, As of August 2011"
## [1286] "As you can see, that 56 F high is closer to the normal low of 51 F than to the normal high of 68 F. Were looking at 10 15 F below normal, depending on location. And a good 31 F below the record. Record heat we dont have But I notice that were trending toward that record low of 45 F set during the last cold phase of the PDO Our low is set to be all of 4 F above that, and the PDO shift is young"
## [1287] "Thats it: 2.77 mm (about a tenth of an inch) per year for the last 150 years. No acceleration ofthe sea-level-rise-ratehas accompanied increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. To get three feet in the next 40 years the sea level must rise an average of about 23 mm per year between now and 2050. That is a sea-level-rise-rate increase by a factor of nine. Something like this"
## [1288] "It's more likely than not at during 2012 or at the beginning of 2013, we will actually see an RSS climate record that will display a cooling trend during the most recent 15 years ??? partly because of the expected 2011/2012 La Nia, partly because the warm 1998 year will emerge at the beginning of the 15-year interval. Recent years increasingly paint the story that the \"global warming\" stopped more than a decade ago."
## [1289] "Good heavens! Since 1997 the planet (or at least the U.S. portion of it) has been cooling! Just like Murphy said in his column. And this cooling is not just a 2009 phenomenon."
## [1290] "One proviso, is that we must use this estimate over similar periods, but as the post cooling scare is less than 30 years and the pause is now longer than 18 years, we are using similar length periods."
## [1291] "Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue reported last week that the 5-year running sum for tropical cyclones globally hit a 45-year low. Maue wrote that in the pentad since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and global tropical cyclone ACE has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels since the late 1970s and the frequency of tropical cyclones has reached a historical low."
## [1292] "Here too, the wild, dangerous sea-level rise was mostly associated with the rise of Hitler and World War II, less so with CO2. Indeed in Newcastle, the seas are still not rising as fast as they were in 1942."
## [1293] "This year, the Jan-Mar temperature is -2.17 F cooler than for example 1907 . And if we compare this years Jan-Mar temperature with 1921 it is -4.17 F cooler."
## [1294] "Record Antarctic Ice Extent Throws Cold Water On Global Warming Scare ... Antarctic polar ice extent has set another new record, defying alarmist global warming claims. Surpassing the greatest month-of-April ice extent in recorded history, the new record throws cold water on alarmist claims that the Antarctic ice cap has crossed a melting point of no return. Forbes"
## [1295] "The unprecedented warming is plainly visible in satellite data which shows an increase of 0.00 degrees since the start of the year 2000."
## [1296] "Nor is Professor Morner worried about island nations drowning. He and his team did an exhaustive investigation of the claim made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that the Maldives in the Indian Ocean are at risk from sea level rise accelerated by global warming. He found considerable evidence that the sea level in the islands has fallen over the past 30 years, and that the islands and their people survived much higher sea levels in the past."
## [1297] "Dr. Judith Curry, in a very long assessment of lessons learned since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, notes that there is still uncertainty of exact causes of frequency and intensity. But, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) have dominant impacts on hurricane variability in the Pacific, and modulates the frequencies of El Nino/La Nina. Curry says, I suspect that the combination of the PDO and NPGO can explain much of the variability in Ryan Maues analysis of Accumulated Cyclone Energy diagram, given that the majority of global hurricanes occur in the Pacific. In the Atlantic, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) have all been invoked to explain variability in the Atlantic"
## [1298] "This makes it absolutely clear what Bryson was referring to. As far as India is concerned, global warming brings less drought, not more."
## [1299] "Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought. The drought of 1999 covered a smaller area than the 1988 drought, when the Mississippi almost dried up. And 1988 was a temporary inconvenience as compared with repeated droughts during the 1930s Dust Bowl that caused an exodus from the prairies, as chronicled in Steinbecks Grapes of Wrath."
## [1300] "The updated outlook also lowers the overall expected storm activity this season. The outlook now includes a 70 percent chance of 6-10 named storms (from 6-11 in the initial May Outlook), of which 1-4 will become hurricanes (from 3-6 in May), and 0-1 will become major hurricanes (from 0-2 in May). These ranges ??? which include the three named storms to-date (Ana, Bill, and Claudette) ??? are centered well below the seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and three major hurricanes."
## [1301] "Since 1998, the warmest year of the twentieth century, temperatures have not kept up with computer models that seemed to project steady warming; theyre perilously close to falling beneath even the lowest projections."
## [1302] "On 22 September, the winter maximum ice sheet extent across the Antarctic reached its greatest area since satellite measurement of the ice extent began in 1979 ."
## [1303] "The year 2007 is now very likely to become RSS MSU's 9th warmest year on record which really means one of the coldest years of our times. It will end up colder than all other years in the 21st century so far as well as 1998 (by 0.4 ??C) and 1995. We explained that 2006 was very cold but 2007 will be shown as 0.1 ??C colder."
## [1304] "During recent years, there have been a number of Category 4 hurricanes that might have only been classified as weak hurricanes or even tropical storms if they had taken place at the same location during the late 1940s and early 1950s."
## [1305] "CU satellite sea level data for San Francisco also shows no rise in sea level."
## [1306] "The Arctic ice cap grows each winter as the sun sets for several months and shrinks each summer as the sun rises higher in the northern sky. Each year the Arctic sea ice reaches its annual minimum extent in September. It hit a new record low in 2012. This summers low ice extent continued the downward trend seen over the last thirty-four years. Scientists attribute this trend in large part to warming temperatures caused by climate change. Since 1979, September Arctic sea ice extent has declined by 13.7 percent per decade. Summer sea ice extent is important because, among other things, it reflects sunlight, keeping the Arctic region cool and moderating global climate."
## [1307] "The tornado count excluding EF-0 was 412 last year, making it the 12th lowest year since 1970. (Although tornado records go back to 1950, many tornado experts, such as McCarthy & Schaeffer, regard the data prior to 1970 as unreliable)."
## [1308] "The heaviest snow yesterday hit northeastern Asia, which is suffering its worst winter weather for 60 years. More than 25 centimetres (10in) of snow covered Seoul, the South Korean capital the heaviest fall since records began in 1937."
## [1309] "With winds like that, expect to see complete devastation as it makes landfall. That of course will be hyped into an AGW caused storm, just like Katrina. Al Gore and Bill McKibben are already testing lies language on Twitter. Bear in mind that we have a very short historical record of Typhoon strength, and any claims that this is the strongest storm ever need to be qualified with that fact. Nobody has any credible record of typhoon strength back more than a few decades."
## [1310] "A second figure in the article (our Figure 2) caught our eye as well showing the drought reconstructions along a transect from New Mexico to Alberta. We have examined all six reconstructions, and we cannot find anything unusual going on in terms of drought frequency, duration, or variability. Every reconstruction shows that droughts in the past were every bit as severe as anything seen over the most recent 100 years. In many cases, the trend of the past 100 years is toward a moister regime, not the drier regime promised by the global warming advocates."
## [1311] "For those wanting a closer look at the more recent wiggles and trends, the second graph starts in 1998, which was the start year used by von Storch et al (2013) Can climate models explain the recent stagnation in global warming? They, of course, found that the CMIP3 (IPCC AR4) and CMIP5 (IPCC AR5) models could NOT explain the recent slowdown in warming."
## [1312] "Current weather extremes across the Prairies are because of the cooling since 2000. The researchers are going to Chile, Argentina and Colombia. Why? These regions simply experience the same patterns associated with the Southern Hemisphere version of the Polar Front."
## [1313] "Facts : It has been 9 years since the last Category 3 hurricane (Wilma, 2005). Thats the longest periodby farin records that extend back to 1900. There have been no hurricanes during the Obama administration (Sandy was not technically a hurricane when it came onshore)."
## [1314] "1974 was the record year for violent tornadoes year prior to 2011. It was also the peak year of the global cooling panic."
## [1315] "There is no sign of any acceleration in sea level rise. What is noticeable is that sea levels fell sharply between 2005 and 2007, making the subsequent recovery greater. Since 2010 sea level has actually fallen by 58mm! Indeed, sea levels in 2013, (the latest available data) were actually lower than in 2005."
## [1316] "A paper published today in Atmospheric Science Letters effectively rules out volcanoes as the main cause of the 'pause' in global warming over the past 17 years. According to the authors, \" We deduce a global mean cooling of around 0.02 to 0.03K over the period 20082012. Thus while these eruptions do cause a cooling of the Earth and may therefore contribute to the slow-down in global warming, they do not appear to be the sole or primary cause.\""
## [1317] "The melt season in Greenland normally starts in mid-April, but this year is nearly a month late."
## [1318] "The current temperature in Westminster, MD is 56.9 degrees. The previous cold record for the date was 57.02 degrees."
## [1319] "However, Im now fairly confident that cooling is more likely than warming over the next few years and as I looked to see when we might begin to see cooling, a rather ironic scenario occurred to me:"
## [1320] "A Billings Gazette article last week quoted University of Montana global warming activist Steve Running claiming major wildfires have quadrupled since 1986, but the facts show wildfires are actually declining."
## [1321] "Also to the point is that temperatures have fallen since 1950 in the interior of the dominant East Antarctic Ice Sheet, the volume of which is either stable or growing slightly, as is the extent of peripheral Antarctic sea ice (NIPCC, Chapters 4 and 5)."
## [1322] "Youd think that by now global warming would have made harsh winter weather a thing of the past. Alas, no. Our tomatoes, and the health and welfare benefits they bring, are still endangered."
## [1323] "At the risk of getting egg on my face again (!), NSIDC figures show that Arctic sea ice extent has now grown for the last two days."
## [1324] "There is no warming trend since the Industrial Revolution, in fact, the linear trend is negative."
## [1325] "Meteorologist Joe D'Aleo of WeatherBell Analytics and editor of http://www.icecap.us says that, as the President addresses the nation on Tuesday, every State will have freezing temperatures and parts or all of 27 States will be below zero."
## [1326] "And an extra bonus from the weather is not climate department January 29, 2010 at 39.9 degrees was ten degrees below normal and the second coldest on record."
## [1327] "The authors report \"there is a common perception in the media, and even government and management circles , that is due to an increase in tropical cyclone frequency and perhaps in intensity, probably as a result of global climate change.\" However, as they continue, \"studies all over the world show that though there are decadal variations, there is no definite long-term trend in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones.\" Hence, they conclude that \"the specter of tropical cyclones increasing alarmingly due to global climate change, portrayed in the popular media and even in some more serious publications, does not therefore have a sound scientific basis.\" References"
## [1328] "Half a billion dollars gone, just like that, after a decade of no global warming."
## [1329] "The percentage of days with extreme heat or cold in the US has declined sharply since the 1930s."
## [1330] "So far this millenium, temperatures have dropped. If the current trends continue, people can expect to be freezing their butts off in the year 2100."
## [1331] "Heavy blizzards that paralyzed Central Europe in February 2012 may have been part of a larger pattern."
## [1332] "The trend is also striking regarding Northeast U.S. hurricanes. Major hurricanes routinely struck the U.S. Northeast during the 1930s, 1940s and 1950s. ( see Past Tracks of U.S. Landfalling Major Hurricanes ) From 1960 through 2010, however, just one major hurricane struck the U.S. Northeast. Hurricane Sandy brought merely 80 mph, Category 1 winds at its New Jersey landfall, which pales in comparison to prior hurricanes, such as Hurricane Carol which struck Long Island as a Category 3 hurricane in 1954. When people say, We never used to have hurricane events like this here in the Northeast, it is only because those people either werent alive or dont remember the much stronger and more frequent Northeast hurricanes before our recent global warming."
## [1333] "You can read the rest here . Basically this looks like a lame attempt to make king tides look like they are enhanced significantly by sea level, and make sea level an elevated issue so they can argue with North Carolina to re-enact the sea level laws they gutted this in 2012 ."
## [1334] "Evidently, solar activity is on the decrease. In this respect, we could be in for a cooling period that lasts 200-250 years.Yuri Nagovitsyn, Pulkovo Observatory St.Petersburg."
## [1335] "\"Climate does not change uniformly: The Earth is very large and the expectation definitely would be that there would be different changes in different regions of the world,\" Parkinson said. \"That's true even if overall the system is warming.\" Another recent NASA study showed that Antarctic sea ice slightly thinned from 2003 to 2008, but increases in the extent of the ice balanced the loss in thickness and led to an overall volume gain."
## [1336] "Again in Sheffield, the number of days over 30.0C are on the decline, and in the last decade has been less than the 30s, 40s and 70s."
## [1337] "Meanwhile, some 3,300 people remain stranded by snow and ice in rural areas, where they can only be reached by helicopter."
## [1338] "A research team led by Ohio University geologist Gregory Springer examined the trace metal strontium and carbon and oxygen isotopes in the stalagmite, which preserved climate conditions averaged over periods as brief as a few years. The scientists found evidence of at least seven major drought periods during the Holocene era, according to an article published online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters."
## [1339] "Head of the Russian WWF climate program: 60-year ocean cycle is expected to make in the next two decades for cooling"
## [1340] "This year, the recent 12 Month period temperature is -12,6 F cooler than for example 1931 . And if we compare with 1990 it is ??? 13,8 F cooler ."
## [1341] "The chart also shows that observed temperatures, rather than climbing ever upward, are where they were 15 years ago."
## [1342] "The incidence and severity of extreme weather has not increased. There is little evidence that dangerous weather-related events will occur more often in the future. The U.N.s own Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says in its Special Report on Extreme Weather (2012) that there is an absence of an attributable climate change signal in trends in extreme weather losses to date. The funds currently dedicated to trying to stop extreme weather should therefore be diverted to strengthening our infrastructure so as to be able to withstand these inevitable, natural events, and to helping communities rebuild after natural catastrophes such as tropical storm Sandy."
## [1343] "What's more, \"the wave's continued evolution portends a reversal of this trend of declining sea ice.\""
## [1344] "The latest data has been added to the Aviso site, and sea level is dropping through the floor. Europes Envisat satellite has been collecting data since 2004, and now shows that sea level is the lowest it has been since they started collecting data."
## [1345] "However, the reason behind the current pause in rising temperatures remains a mystery, and there are said to be more than 30 theories attempting to decipher what caused this stability."
## [1346] "Can we find another year with similar ice distribution as 2010? I can see Russian ice in my Windows. Note in the graph below that 2010 is very similar to 2006. 2006 had the highest minimum (and smallest maximum) in the DMI record. Like 2010, the ice was compressed and thick in 2006. Conclusion : Should we expect a nice recovery this summer due to the thicker ice? You bet ya."
## [1347] "The online Salzburg Austria ORF site here writes: Despite climate change, winters in the Salzburg mountains over the past 30 years have not gotten warmer, rather they have gotten colder ."
## [1348] "Antarctic sea ice is also increasing. According to Australian Antarctic Division glaciology program head Ian Allison, sea ice losses in west Antarctica over the past 30 years have been more than offset by increases in the Ross Sea region, just one sector of east Antarctica."
## [1349] "Caseys book reflects his mission to educate the public to the dangers of a sun whose low number of sunspots (magnetic storms) is well known among solar scientists and generally under-reported. This particular solar cycle (#24) peak is one of the lowest since cycle #14 in 1906 which had approximately 64 sunspots, Casey told me. We measure each solar maximum every eleven years to determine the average of solar activity by sunspot count. We have had solar maximums in the past there were over 200 sunspots and some as low as 50. The relevance of information about the number of sunspots is that when the count goes below 50 we enter a much colder climate era."
## [1350] "Chinese scientists only looked at sea ice projections until 2005. Had they kept going, they would find more than a trend of slightly increasing sea ice levels. Last year was the first year on record that Antarctic sea ice coverage rose above 7.72 square miles."
## [1351] "On average, a major hurricane made landfall in New England every 3.5 years from 1938 to 1966. Since 1966, its been just every 9.2 years with none since 1999. New norm?"
## [1352] "Now polar conditions have stopped cooperating, and sea ice looks poised to defy the projections. A couple of days ago I wrote here about how natural cycles are now aligning to lead to more sea ice cover over the next one or two decades, and that global sea ice levels are back to normal levels a fact that the end-of-world obsessors are finding difficult to come to terms with."
## [1353] "Wrong. The British Antarctic Survey, working with NASA, last week confirmed ice around Antarctica has grown 100,000 sq km each decade for the past 30 years."
## [1354] "While Arctic sea ice has been diminishing in recent decades, the Antarctic sea ice extent has been increasing slightly. Researchers from the Georgia Institute of Technology provide an explanation for the seeming paradox of increasing Antarctic sea ice in a warming climate. The paper appears in the Early Edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science the week of August 16, 2010."
## [1355] "On June 2, the temperature in Stockholm rose only to 6C, the coldest high in 84 years, read more here . Earlier in the month one town recorded a temperature of 6C below zero the coldest June temperature in Sweden in 20 years. Snow even blanketed parts of northern Sweden."
## [1356] "Whereas it is not our purpose here to discuss detailed links between the NAO and storminess, it will be immediately apparent that the two stormiest periods in Figure 1.14, in the 1920s and 1990s, coincide with decades of sustained positive NAO index, whereas the least stormy decade, the 1960s, is a time when the smoothed NAO index was most negative."
## [1357] "Another rhetoricalshift is a subtle revision in the concept of climate sensitivity. Climate sensitivity used to mean how much global warming you get from a given increase inCO2 concentrations.However, since 2001, although CO2 concentrations have increased at an accelerating rate , global temperatures have been stagnant or even declined slightly . To my knowledge, no scientist in the late 1990s predicted a roughly 10-year period of no warming at the start of the 21st Century. This suggests that the climate is less sensitive (less reactive to CO2 emissions) than the alleged ???scientific consensus?? has been telling us."
## [1358] "The big chill extended to parts of the country much less accustomed to it. Parts of Nevada were at 18F below zero; in Flagstaff, Arizona, the temperature dropped to 7F; temperatures as low as 27F were expected in usually mild Las Vegas and surrounding areas, and the National Weather Service issued winter storm warnings for Riverside and San Bernardino counties in ???sunny?? Southern California."
## [1359] "Our latest topical graph shows the least-squares linear-regression trend on the RSS satellite monthly global mean lower-troposphere dataset for as far back as it is possible to go and still find a zero trend. The start-date is not cherry-picked so as to coincide with the temperature spike caused by the 1998 el Nio. Instead, it is calculated so as to find the longest period with a zero trend."
## [1360] "The Antarctic sea ice area anomaly is approximately +1.2 million squared kilometers (more ice than what is normal for the season), almost matching the peak reached in June 2008. Combined with a minor negative Northern sea ice area anomaly , the global sea ice area anomaly approaches huge +1.0 million squared kilometers."
## [1361] "1. Warming of the ocean causes expansion of water and therefore a sea level rise. Since 2004 we have the ARGO scheme where over 3,600 buoys measure temperatures down to a depth of two km. They reveal no warming of the oceans. This, of course, is consistent with the lack of global warming over the past 17 years."
## [1362] "The slowdown hasnt gone away, however, and The results of this study still show the warming trend over the past 15 years has been slower than previous 15 year periods."
## [1363] "It is statistically appropriate to point to this year??s frigidity as evidence that the theory of man-made global warming is suspect."
## [1364] "Austrian weather expert Alexander Orlik from the central weather institute ZAMG said: ???It is true the snow is very early this year and that is an indication that it will be a long hard winter, but not proof.??"
## [1365] "The frequency of extreme floods also increased during the early and middle portions of the first millennium AD, many of which coincided \"with glacial advances and cool, moist conditions both in the western U.S. and globally.\" Then came a \"sharp drop in the frequency of large floods in the southwest from AD 1100-1300,\" which corresponded, in her words, \"to the widespread Medieval Warm Period, which was first noted in European historical records.\" With the advent of the Little Ice Age, however, there was another \"substantial jump in the number of floods in the southwestern U.S.,\" which was \"associated with a switch to glacial advances, high lake levels, and cooler, wetter conditions.\""
## [1366] "Yet data of observed reality collected from the U.N.s International Panel on Climate Change and the U.S. National Climate Data Center does not show increasing frequency of extreme weather across the globe, whether you look at hurricanes, tornadoes, droughts, or floods."
## [1367] "Fort Denison , an old penal colony in the middle of Sydney Harbour, has one of the oldest tide gauges around, having been located there for 128 years. During this period, the sea level has risen just 6.5 cm, or about two and a half inches."
## [1368] "Tonight: Snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. South southwest wind between 13 and 18 mph. Chance of precipitation 100%. New snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches possible."
## [1369] "May, 2009 shows the greatest ice extent in the AMSR-E record, which seems to contradict Hadow??s highly publicised remarks about Arctic ice health."
## [1370] "In my post last week, Greenland Glaciers Melting Faster? , I suggested that there was no evidence that sea levels at Reykjavik have been rising at a faster rate in the last decade than before."
## [1371] "Meanwhile, global sea ice area is normal."
## [1372] "Not long ago some climate scientists announced winters with snow would be a thing of the past in Europe. Global warming, they said, would be especially noticeablein the wintertime. But then in the late 2000s and early 2010s, a string of harsh winters gripped the old continent and the trend in Germany went downhill: colder and snowier winters."
## [1373] "As I forecast a couple of months ago, CET figures just released confirm that 2012 was the second coldest for sixteen years, second only to 2010. The provisional figure is 9.70C, which is 0.27C colder than the 1981-2010 average."
## [1374] "Despite predictions that the temperature on the globe should rise with a huge speed, nothing has really happened the last 10-15 years, says the August 7 print edition of the Danish Jyllands-Posten , the famous daily that published the Muhammad caricatures ."
## [1375] "The IPCC and other climate institutes have done their work. For 20 years temperatures have remained steady with a slight downward trend. The IPCC and the PIK Potsdam Institute can now be disbanded."
## [1376] "Global warming alarmists are predictable. If they see elevated sea surface temperature anomalies on a map anywhere close to a weather event, they immediately claim manmade global warming contributed, or will contribute, to the weather. They erred that way with Hurricane Sandy sea surface temperatures along Sandys storm track havent warmed in 70+ years and theyve done it again with the blizzard threatening New England today. Refer to the WattsUpWithThat post Propagandist Brad Johnson of Forecast the Facts tries to make the pending East Coast blizzard about the ocean warming Fails ."
## [1377] "The Mail on Sunday ran an article by David Rose a couple of weeks ago, pointing out just how woeful most climate models had been in predicting global temperatures in the last decade or so. Added to other media reports in recent months, the public at large, at least in the UK. are now gradually becoming aware that temperatures have flatlined for several years."
## [1378] "Global warming ends: in the years to come the temperature drop across the planet, although its nature and will be sparing. So the forecast today with a shared corr. Tass, scientists from the Physics Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences / LPI /."
## [1379] "Climate skeptics have seized upon the change in world weather patterns, some citing it as evidence that global warming itself has decelerated or even stopped. Benny Peiser, director of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, said the slowdown was a far larger issue than the report shows."
## [1380] "Ask any person on the street what they think of when they hear ???rising sea levels?? and they??ll tell you the water level is rising relative to the land . Tell that same person on the street that land masses are rising at about the same rate as the sea and suddenly there??s no panic. How much funding goes away when the problem isn??t a problem?"
## [1381] "Mount Isa was very cold, dropping below freezing for only the second time this year and registering its coldest morning in 10 years. It was a staggering 11 degrees below average, reaching minus one."
## [1382] "After all, Katrina was a relatively average Category-3 hurricane when it struck the New Orleans area. And even if 2005 saw a record hurricane season, neither that nor the duds of 2006 and 2007 can be used as evidence for or against Climate Change."
## [1383] "Summer temperatures in Arizona peaked in 1896, and recent summers have been among the coolest on record."
## [1384] "The widespread snow cover is due to cold, not the imaginary warmth inside your computer model."
## [1385] "The absence of both tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling since 1996 is remarkable consideringthat more than 31% of all industrial CO2 emissions since 1750 occurred during the past 18 years."
## [1386] "If the GFZ research is correct, a new solar minimum could have a direct impact on Earths climate cooling our planet drastically, and knocking the predictions of global-warming alarmists out of whack."
## [1387] "RECOMMENDED CORRECTION: These previous national U.S. assessments, as well as those for normalised Cuban hurricane losses (Pielke et al., 2003), did not show any significant upward trend in losses over time, and this remains the case following the remarkable hurricane losses of 2004 and 2005."
## [1388] "At some point, U.S. continental warming will resume, but the extended decade-long plus global coolingtrend persists, contradicting the experts. None of the IPCC climate models, nor \"consensus\" experts predicted this cooling, let alone a minus 9.4 degree trend for the continental U.S. This trend has persisted since the super 1997-98 El Nio warming event and continued through the major 2009-2010 El Nio event."
## [1389] "Since Al Gores climate movie An Inconvenient Truth was launched in January 2005, global cooling has occurred at the equivalent of 10F (5.5C) per century. If this rapid cooling were to continue, the Earth would be in an Ice Age by 2100."
## [1390] "NOAA data shows that major (category 3-5) hurricanes hit the US about half as often as they did eighty years ago. They used to hit the US about once per year, but now hit about once every other year. The last one to hit the US was hurricane Wilma in 2005."
## [1391] "So with this historical peak in climate heating CO2 air pollution, why have not actual earth temperatures risen accordingly?"
## [1392] "Experts Reject Notion that Global Warming Is Causing More Floods"
## [1393] "Canberrans felt the worst of the cold on Wednesday, when temperatures fell to minus 6.1 degrees, 6 degrees colder than the long-term July average of minus 0.1."
## [1394] "Its certainly not unprecedented. Rather than limiting the perspective to a mere 34 years, how about looking at the last 1200? Two years ago, Edward Cook and several colleagues reconstructed the Wests drought history back to 800 A.D. They wrote that Compared to earlier megadroughts that are reconstructed to have occurred around AD 936, 1034, 1150, and 1253, however, the current drought does not stand out as an extreme event, because it has not yet lasted nearly as long."
## [1395] "The work of Groisman and his co-authors shows that elements of the cryosphere across northern Eurasia did decline over the past 50 years (1956-2004). However, the work clearly shows that over the last decade the declines were diminished, and over the greater period of the past 69 years (1936-2004) the length of time with snow on the ground across northern Eurasia actually increased (Figure 1). The increases were on the order of 3-5 percent, or 5-12 days per year. Groisman et al. state that this is in agreement with other findings and that it cannot be associated with Arctic warming, as there was no warming apparent during the period."
## [1396] "I??m thinking that the ???coldest December on record?? in Siberia could be significant. Not just one day, mind you, but the entire month so far."
## [1397] "The water level in the worlds oceans had been rising steadily over quite some time. Ever since the last ice ages great ice masses in the northern hemisphere started to melt in earnest, some 15,000 years ago, all that melt-water flowed into the oceans and resulted in a rapid rise of 100+ m. Beginning some 7,000 years ago, most of the ice had melted and the ocean level rise slowed to a trickle. Over the last 200 years it rose less than 30 cm. Claims of a renewed acceleration of sea level rise have largely been shown to be false ."
## [1398] "That startling headline is followed by the sub-headline: Defying all predictions, the globe may be on the road towards a new little ice age with much colder winters."
## [1399] "It is also informative to put this in the context of the lesser, but opposite, tendency of increasing sea ice coverage around Antarctica over the same period."
## [1400] "The University of Colorado used to have this error map on their sea level web site, which showed that most of their fake 3 mm/year sea level rise is due to error."
## [1401] "Last night climatologist Gareth Jones tweeted that there had been two dozen papers on the pause this year. In response, I wondered how many would have been published if David Whitehouse hadn't have written his groundbreaking report on the subject. This prompted Doug McNeall to comment \"About two dozen\", a sentiment that was endorsed by Gavin Schmidt."
## [1402] "His string of failed predictions were supported by the British Met offices sixty six million dollar (AU) computer modeling. They both incorrectly predicted 2009 would be one of the five warmest years ever. The world has just experienced two of the coldest and snowiest winters in decades."
## [1403] "The Central Great Plains drought during May-August of 2012 resulted mostly from natural variations in weather, the report said."
## [1404] "Professor Nils-Axel Morner, head of the Paleogeophysics and Geodynamics Department at Stockholm University and past president of the INQUA Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, delivered an amusing and enthusiastic presentation examining sea level change. He pointed out that what has been predicted by computer models is not backed up by empirical evidence. Satellite measures, for instance, show no change in sea level over the past decade, which has led him to write in a peer-reviewed journal, \"This implies that there is no fear of any massive future flooding as claimed in most global warming scenarios.\" Much of the supposed rise, it seems, has actually been a shifting of the amount of water from one area of the globe to another."
## [1405] "The graph below plots the number of years between major hurricane strikes in the US. They occur half as often now as they did in the 1940s."
## [1406] "In this particular part of the world, longer-lasting floods and droughts of equal or greater magnitude than those of modern times occurred repeatedly prior to 1800.?? Hence, one must search elsewhere for evidence that would support climate-alarmist claims of more frequent and/or severe floods and droughts occurring in response to global warming, for there's none to be found here. Reviewed 22 June 2005"
## [1407] "The Indian Ocean Sea Level data is shown in Figure 3. Based on the smoothed data, the Indian Ocean Sea Level remained flat from early 2007 to early 2008, then rose again since then. Also note the multiple swings in sea level during 1996 and 1997, leading up to the El Nino of 1997/98."
## [1408] "(1) Contrary to what the Editor Charlene M. Anderson writes in the opening column, the Earths climate is not being recorded as undergoing a steady warming. There has been no warming in the past 10 years. Previous decades have seen warming and cooling episodes. If we are undergoing a warming, its definitely not steady"
## [1409] "The extreme snow event in New Zealand that is forecast this weekend is noteworthy in the context of climatology since, according to the IPCC-type predictions, such events should be becoming less common. The forecasts for this event are quite serious. The newsagency TVNZ just released the article"
## [1410] "The satellites reveal the inconvenient truth that there has been no global warming for approaching two decades."
## [1411] "The fine weather continued into the middle of August when another frost occurred over interior New York and all of New England damaging many crops. Then on the 20th a strong cold front crossed the Northeast with violent thunderstorms. Reports of temperatures falling 30 degrees after frontal passage were not uncommon. Frost was reported the next day as far south as Massachusetts with snow reported on Mt Moosilouke in New Hampshire. Corn was destroyed from Albany to Boston. If that cold spell wasnt enough, it all came to an end on the 28th when another strong cold front crossed the Northeast with severe frost that ended the growing season in most of Northern New England."
## [1412] "The Economist confidently waffles that The mystery of the pause in global warming may have been solved, in Davy Joness heat locker.The oceans may be absorbing the warming."
## [1413] "The sea ice data, cited from NSIDC, stops in 2007. 2008 and 2009 sea ice data and imagery, available to even the simplest of curiosity seekers at the publicly available NSIDC or even Cryosphere Today websites, is not included in the graphic. Mr. Scott chooses the historical satellite record minimum of 2007 as the endpoint for comparison. This leaves a reader who is ???not in the know??, with the false impression that sea ice has not recovered in any way."
## [1414] "Human civilization readily adapted to the seven inches of sea level rise that occurred during the twentieth century. Alarmists, however, claim global warming will cause sea level to rise much more rapidly during the present century. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) computer models project approximately 15 inches of sea level rise during the 21st century. Thats more than double the sea level rise that occurred during the twentieth century. A more mainstream prediction among alarmists is 3 feet of sea level rise this century. Some alarmists have even projected 20 feet of global sea level rise this century."
## [1415] "It was record snow for this time of year, says reader Alex Tanase. ???We had over 10cm in Muntenia Ilfov, Giurgiu, Teleorman, Calarasi and Ialomita Counties(a region in South-East Romania).??"
## [1416] "A range of factors have been pinpointed for what has come to be called the hiatus or pause in warming, which the scientists said they expected to be temporary."
## [1417] "The Independent, 18 December 2010: December 2010 is \"almost certain\" to be the coldest since records began in 1910, according to the Met Office."
## [1418] "During question period at the media and climate panel, I asked Pederson about Jones's comment on the lack of \"statistically significant\" warming since 1995 and the possible cooling from 2002 on. Pederson replied that the 1995 non-warming was just that, a statistical artifact, and that the current decade had been the warmest on record. Which may be true, but that doesn't mean the decade is warming."
## [1419] "The map below overlays the 1+ ice (turquoise/green) on NSIDCs most recent extent map (white.) You can see that there has been minimal effect on the older ice. Some of the ice in the Beaufort and Chuckchi Seas melted, and some blew over into the East Siberian Sea and Arctic Basin."
## [1420] "4. For UAH , the slope is flat since June 2008 or 6 years, 2 months. (goes to July using version 5.5)"
## [1421] "The most extreme year was 1936, when the hottest summer on record (even after adjustments) followed the second coldest winter. I wonder how their models account for that?"
## [1422] "Over the past 25 years, January temperatures in Maryland have dropped nearly three degrees C. This has been one of the worst cycling months I can remember continuous ice on the bike paths."
## [1423] "It may already be happening. The four major agencies tracking Earth??s temperature, including NASA??s Goddard Institute, report that the Earth cooled 0.7 degree Celsius in 2007, the fastest decline in the age of instrumentation, putting us back to where the Earth was in 1930."
## [1424] "The other major 3 crop regions all show similar type of cooling rates over the last 17 years ending 2013. (see: soybean temperatures, map ; spring wheat temperatures, map ; and winter wheat temperatures, map )"
## [1425] "Notice the spike in the '07 El Nino, then the fall after; the spike in the '09-'10 El Nino, the fall after. The overall trend though is unmistakably down. But another round of heat hysteria is certainly on the way. Problem is, as I said, it will mean a cold winter for the US for one, and a bigger drop after. But how much you want to bet the cold winter next year will be twisted into something it's not (caused by CO2)? Do you think any of them will possibly acknowledge what global temperatures will do after the spike? They don't even want anyone to look at this now."
## [1426] "Let us suppose, ad argumentum, that the main reason for sea-level change is temperature change, and that Grinsteds sea-level reconstruction is plausible. In that event, the small sea-level response to the large temperature change between the medieval warm period and the little ice age suggests the possibility that even a global warming far greater than what is now likely might not have much impact on sea level."
## [1427] "Several satellites measure the global sea level elevation. The European satellite, Evisat, provided possibly the best available data. It showed falling sea level since its launch in 2002, and for the last two years the decline was 5mm/yr. Unfortunately. Evisat broke down on April 8 th 2012."
## [1428] "We all have heard many times that summer sea ice minimums have declined in the northern hemisphere over the last 30 years. As mentioned above, this causes more sunlight to reach the dark ocean water, and results in a warming of the water. What is not so widely discussed is that southern hemisphere sea ice has been increasing, causing a net cooling effect. This article explains why the cooling effect of excess Antarctic ice is significantly greater than the warming effect of missing Arctic ice."
## [1429] "Die Welt writes that global warming is currently advancing considerably more slowly than assumed a few years ago and has stalled over the last 15 years and that scientists are unable to explain why ."
## [1430] "This year, the recent 12 Month period temperature is -3.3 F cooler than for example 1911 . And if we compare with 1935 it is ??? 3.6 F cooler."
## [1431] "Perhaps just as significant is the fact that DMI only count ice concentration of 30% and over, unlike NSIDC and others that use 15%. This would suggest that the thicker, more concentrated ice is becoming more predominant."
## [1432] "The United States and the Soviet Union are mounting large-scale investigations to determine why the Arctic climate is becoming more frigid, why parts of the Arctic sea ice have recently become ominously thicker and whether the extent of that ice cover contributes to the onset of ice ages."
## [1433] "The incidence and severity of extreme weather has not increased..the hypothesis that our emissions of CO2 have caused or will cause dangerous global warming is not supported by the evidence."
## [1434] "Sea level has been rising at 0.0 mm per year in California, leading to the complete collapse of the real estate market."
## [1435] "This would explain why sea ice around Antarctica has been growing, reaching the greatest-ever recorded extent in 2010, it suggested."
## [1436] "The global warming pause was first identified by sceptics such as Mike Haseler (aka Scottish Sceptic) as early as 2005 but is first recorded in the climategate submissions of 2009. The pause was used to refer to the lack of predicted warming in the available temperature datasets. For example, by mid 2015, the satellite record showed no warming in 18 years and none of the available datasets showed even the lowest predicted warming of the IPCC report in 2001 (0.14/decade). The pause was hugely important because it showed that the temperature predictions were not coming true. This, together with the failure of predictions of increasing severe weather, flooding droughts and the refreezing of global sea ice leaving no overall trend in the period of available data, suggested that either the predictions were wrong, or that large amounts of long term variation were present in the real atmosphere and not included in the models, or both."
## [1437] "The IPCC-projected rise of up to 1m by the end of this century would require an average rate of up to 12mm/yr for the rest of this century, some four times the current rate, and an order of magnitude larger than implied by the 20 th century acceleration of 0.01mm/yr found in some studies. What drives the projected sea level rise? To what extent is it dependent upon a continued rise in Global Mean Surface Temperature?"
## [1438] "When updated to 2006, the trends in ice extent and area in the Antarctic remains slight but positive at 0.9 0.2 and 1.7 0.3% per decade."
## [1439] "It started in December 1911 and continued into late February 1912. February and March continued the unrelenting freeze. Both months were unusually cold, and March was the coldest on record for many states in the Midwest and Northeast. Parts of North Dakota saw their coldest March readings to date. Some cities saw their coldest weather that winter since the Little Ice Age. 1912 itself was a very cold year."
## [1440] "And to make your cruise even more enjoyable, you only have traverse several thousand miles of ice, with Arctic ice extent the highest it has been in a decade"
## [1441] "As far as England & Wales are concerned, there is nothing in the data which provides evidence that The increases in days of heavy rain and the greatest annual 5-days precipitation amounts suggest a tendency for an increasing likelihood for extreme heavy rainfall events . Even winter months show no such trend, as I showed in an earlier post here ."
## [1442] "?We?re heading toward what occurred around the year 1800. It was called the Dalton Minimum of low sunspot activities,? he explained. ?We certainly are down to that in number of sunspots this year. That means the cooling will continue at least until 2030 and yet the government is preparing for warming, which is outrageous. Some people think that this cycle of sunspot activity and global cooling will take us down to as cold as it was around 1680, which was the nadir of the Little Ice Age.?"
## [1443] "Note: Writing in Nature Senevirnate (2012) argues with respect to global trends that, there is no necessary correlation between temperature changes and long-term drought variations, which should warn us against using any simplifications regarding their relationship.23"
## [1444] "This observation is just another example of the fact that great portions of the world, including most of the Arctic, most of the Antarctic and much of North America, are no warmer now than they were some 50 to 70 years ago ."
## [1445] "This applies not only to the northern areas, but also the south. In the Omsk and Novosibirsk regions the average daily temperature is below normal by 4 degrees, reaching temperatures normally seen in October."
## [1446] "As the graph's red plot depicts, global warming trends have been on a deceleration path for an extended period, indicating a strong likelihood that global warming by 2050 will be nowhere close to he current official predictions."
## [1447] "As computer simulations have become more sophisticated, projections of rising sea levels have become much smaller."
## [1448] "The Pause in ???Earth??s Temperature?? appears in many of Earth??s observational records, with The Pause lasting for at least a decade, and in reasonable portion of the records, it appears to have begun with the strong 1998 El Nino. The questions now are how long will The Pause last and where will ???Earth??s Temperature?? go from there?"
## [1449] "Although the NOAA report noted that in 2012, the Arctic continues to warm with sea ice reaching record lows, it also stated that the Antarctica sea ice reached a record high of 7.51 million square miles on Sept. 26, 2012."
## [1450] "Globally tropical storms show no correlation with our CO2 emissions. Their global energy levels are no different to what they were 40 years ago."
## [1451] "The absence of a temperature rise over that decade is often used by climate sceptics as grounds for denying the existence of man-made global warming."
## [1452] "Extreme cold warning s for the Fond-du-Lac, Stony Rapids and Black Lake, Uranium City Camsell Portage and Wollaston Lake Collins Bay regions."
## [1453] "Dr. Madhav L. Khandekar, who recently retired from Environment Canada after a 25-year career as a research scientist, and who recently edited a special issue of the international journal Natural Hazards on extreme weather events, presented his views concerning the lack of connection between severe weather events and global warming. Khandekar specifically examined heat trends from Canada, thunderstorms and tornadoes in North America, and monsoons in Asia. He concluded that there has not been an increase in severe weather events and that the likelihood of increased incidences of extreme weather events in the next ten to twenty-five years remains very small at this time."
## [1454] "One of the key features of Hansen??s global warming theory is that the polar regions are supposed to warm much faster than the rest of the planet. The image below is from his classic 1984 paper , and shows that Antarctica is supposed to warm up 6C after a doubling of CO2. If the cooling trend which UAH shows continues, it will take Antarctica a very long time to warm up six degrees."
## [1455] "While stories of the Arctic record fall in sea-ice have been all over the news, all over the world, it??s almost as if the Southern Hemisphere didn??t exist. Right now, this week apparently, the sea ice is at or near record highs (bearing in mind that we??re still only talking 30 years of satellite records, but then, these are the same satellites lapping over the arctic, and if the records are longer there, I expect it??s only by an hour and a half)."
## [1456] "What my objection to the Canadian Press article and its headline was that itimplies tothe Canadian public that Canadian winters are getting milder when theyhave not for the last 13 years. That is significant.You cant ignore that if you are going to write an article about changes in Canadian winters. The article compared winter data sets between 1970s and today. I however compared 1998 and 2010/2011 which is much more current and up to date."
## [1457] "It is strange that the IPCC panel should link recent extreme weather events to global warming because quite simply there has been no global warming to speak of for 10-15 years now based on the official climate data from the governments of the world [US /NCDC, ENVIRONMENT CANADA and THE EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY. Recently US meteorologist Anthony Watts showed that the continental U.S. has not warmed in the last 10 years, and in fact has grown cooler in the summer and colder in the winter. The climate data numbers come from the National Climatic Data Center."
## [1458] "While the majority of journalists are still awakening from their intellectual slumber regarding climate science, the latest empirical global temperature measurements (RSS atmosphere temps and CO2 chart on the left) confirm what The Economist is essentially reporting global warming has gone AWOL and a slight cooling trend has developed over the last 10 years (a minus 0.42 degrees by 2100 if the trend persists)."
## [1459] "In a major review of ???temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts?? ??? as they titled their study of the subject ??? Kunkel et al . (1999) analyzed empirical data related to historical trends of several different types of extreme weather events and their societal impacts. This work revealed, in their words, that ???most measures of the economic impacts of weather and climate extremes over the past several decades reveal increasing losses.?? However, they found that ???trends in most related weather and climate extremes do not show comparable increases with time,?? suggesting that ???increasing losses are primarily due to increasing vulnerability arising from a variety of societal changes, including a growing population in higher risk coastal areas and large cities, more property subject to damage, and lifestyle and demographic changes subjecting lives and property to greater exposure.??"
## [1460] "Climate alarmists contend that global warming brings with it greater variability in all types of extreme weather conditions, drought being one of the primary phenomena they cite in this regard. Throughout the entire course of the 20th century, however, over which period of time they claim the earth warmed at a rate and to a temperature unprecedented over the past thousand to one million years (Hansen et al ., 2006), drought variability in north-central Minnesota was nowhere near 'unprecedented.' In fact, it was anomalously low . Reference"
## [1461] "In recent years snows have fallen in unusual places like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Buenos Aires, southern Brazil. Johannesburg, South Africa, southern Australia, the Mediterranean Coast and Greece. All-time record snows fell in many locales across the western and northern United States from Washington State and Oregon and Colorado to Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Vermont and Maine. All-time records were also set in southern Canada."
## [1462] "The University of Colorado claim that the rate of sea level rise since 1992 is 3.1mm/year, but this includes an isostatic adjustment of 0.3mm/year, meaning that the sea level, as measured on our coastline, is only rising by 2.8mm/year. (Basically, they argue the sea floor is sinking: more information here ). Taking this along with the Pinatubo factor, it is clear that the underlying rate of rise is not much greater than the generally accepted 20thC rise of about 190mm."
## [1463] "Others on the WUWT sea ice page suggest it could go either way. What isn??t debatable though is that there has been a dramatic slowing of loss of Arctic ice extent in the past couple of weeks, as shown below, and that the current extent is well within the +/- 2 standard deviation."
## [1464] "Steve Runyun of Willow Alaska : Here in Willow, Alaska, we are mired in a cold snap entering its 13th day. After one of the coldest summers in Alaskan history, we are seeing a winter reminiscent of the 70s and 80s. Temps at our house have averaged -25*F, dipping into the low minus 30s and getting as high as -19, for a very brief moment yesterday. Temps in Anchorage have also been below zero for this same time frame, very unusual for them, and interior Alaska has been in the 60s below zero. Over Christmas break, airports across the country were closed due to snow and ice. Even Las Vegas got snow! Whereas the spectre of global warming once was quite appalling, today its quite appealing! Bring it on, says I! If I really could spur it a little, I think I would, at this point!"
## [1465] "Mrner, N.-A. 2012. Sea Level Is Not Rising. SPPI Reprint Series , December 6, 2012."
## [1466] "It was minus 1.0 degrees in Gulmarg, two degrees below normal, while Pahalgam recorded minus 3.0 degrees today (Monday), three degree below normal."
## [1467] "In his conclusion, Page says Often the signal for a climate direction change is a see-saw effect between Arctic and Antarctic sea ice. The Arctic is still reflecting the peak in the warming trend with low summer ice values. The first indication of a cooling event is however the increase in Antarctic sea ice which has already occurred. (See my post: The Arctic-Antarctic seesaw )"
## [1468] "Climate models predict that rising atmospheric CO2 should cause temperatures in the lower atmosphere to increase more rapidly than at the surface. But just the opposite has happened. Surface, balloon, and satellite temperature trend data show no change in lower atmosphere temperatures during the last few decades, even as surface temperatures have risen. One potential explanation is that the surface temperature increases may be largely due to increasing urban heat island effects, rather than to greenhouse-gas buildup."
## [1469] "Santa Claus is just back from the North Pole, and reports that Nobel Laureate Albert Arnold Gore wasincorrectabout hisice-free Arctic in December 2014 prediction. In fact, Arctic sea ice extent is at a 10 year high for the date."
## [1470] "The 12-month period from May 2012 to April 2013 was remarkable for the absence of tornado activity and tornado impacts in the United States."
## [1471] "The recent cold 2010 and hot 2011 were not, bad math. There is a trivial explanation: 2010 had two winter cold snaps, 2011 had none. Remember, much of the cold winter of 2010/11 came in December 2010, an early instance."
## [1472] "The Weekend Australian reported last month a claim by Bureau of Metereology senior climatologist Andrew Watkins that monitoring at Australia??s Antarctic bases since the 1950s indicated temperatures were rising. A study was then published by the British Antarctic Survey that concluded the ozone hole was responsible for the cooling and expansion of sea ice around much of the continent."
## [1473] "Bloomberg is obsessed with a low carbon footprint for New York, and taking guns away from people in Wyoming. Meanwhile, his own people are freezing in the dark in New York without electricity or heat for three months."
## [1474] "???Antarctic sea ice hasn??t seen these big reductions we??ve seen in the Arctic. This is not a surprise to us,?? said climate scientist Mark Serreze, director of the NSIDC."
## [1475] "Does the Wada groundwater correction make any difference? Look at figure 4 and notice that around 1985 the groundwater depletion correction overtakes the reservoir correction. Before 1985 the combination of the two corrections yield a sea level rise rate that is greater than the plain Church and White data, but after that the sea level rise rate is lower. The groundwater depletion data only goes to the year 2000, but if the exponential extrapolation holds, then by 2010 the reduced sea level rise rate will be even more pronounced."
## [1476] "The widely used number of 3.1 mm/year is a complete joke."
## [1477] "But what if this supposed natural ocean fluctuation, which is supposedly cooling the surface, was reversed?"
## [1478] "Figure 2 presents the October sea surface temperatures (not anomalies) from 1938 to 2012 for Sandys entire storm track. Working back in time, sea surface temperatures in 2007, 2005 and 1939 were warmer than they were in 2012, while in 2002, 1957, 1952 and 1941 sea surface temperatures were comparable to those in 2012. That is, the October 2012 sea surface temperatures along Sandys storm track were NOT unusually warm."
## [1479] "Before you wrecked the climate, Indio and Brawley, CA recorded 117 and 116 degree temperatures on May 3/4 1947."
## [1480] "There is no evidence in the temperature record to support this claim. The three worst heatwaves in Texas history all occurred before 1935."
## [1481] "Currently the weather pattern dominating Central Europe is bringing unusually cold air over the continent, and early this morning regions in a number of countries were hit by ground surface frost."
## [1482] "Third, the satellites that measure the worlds temperature all say that the warming trend ended in 2001, that 1998 was the warmest recent year, and that the temperature has dropped about 0.6C in the last year (to the temperature of 1980)."
## [1483] "With respect to global warming it seems to be a paradox that this year sea ice in the Southern Ocean has reached the highest extent in the last decades. It was only in the mid 1970s that a similar sea ice extent had been observed ."
## [1484] "The four researchers' reconstructed record of intense hurricanes revealed that the frequency of these \"high-magnitude\" events \"peaked near 6 storms per century between 2800 and 2300 years ago.\" Thereafter, it suggests that they were \"relatively rare\" with \"about 0-3 storms per century occurring between 1900 and 1600 years ago,\" after which they state that these super-storms exhibited a marked decline , which \"began around 600 years ago\" and has persisted through the present with \"below average frequency over the last 150 years when compared to the preceding five millennia.\""
## [1485] "A recent review of sea level change is provided by Morner (2012), including analysis of satellite data. He writes that the raw data from the TOPEX/POSEIDON sea-level satellites, which operated from 1993-2000, show a slight uptrend in sea level, but if the distorting effects of the Great El Nio Southern Oscillation of 1997/1998 are excluded the sea-level trend is zero. The GRACE gravitational-anomaly satellite data shows that sea level fell slightly from 2002-2007."
## [1486] "What it means The final geocenter-corrected result of Baur et al . is most heartening, as Chambers et al . (2012) indicate that \"sea level has been rising on average by 1.7 mm/year over the last 110 years,\" as is also suggested by the analyses of Church and White (2006) and Holgate (2007). Concomitantly, the air's CO 2 concentration has risen byclose to a third. And, still,it has not impacted the rate-of-rise of global sea level!"
## [1487] "It has meanwhile spread that global warming paused for 16 years. Contrary to the IPCC's forecasts are stagnating temperatures, it is simply no longer getting warmer. How could this happen? The researchers devised a variety of hypotheses. The most widely used model says here that the surface temperatures of the Earth stagnate though, but in silence the waters of the deep sea would heat up strongly. And if these accumulated heat could eventually fight his way to the surface, then we are threatened with the warming disaster!"
## [1488] "According to the Met Office, last years drought was not unusual by historical standards, and was not as intense as the drought of 1975/76."
## [1489] "But what about the drought? The 1936 drought was at least as bad as the 2012 drought."
## [1490] "The Arctic sea ice has probably reached its greatest extent for this year. It usually occurs at the end of March last year it was March 21st. There have been some reports that this years maximum extent was the lowest since satellite monitoring began in 1979, and it certainly looks low hovering around 13 million km2 for over a month, see Fig 1 (click on image to enlarge). But looking back over past behavior its maximum extent was similar last year and in 2011 and 2005-7 (Fig 2). Hence this years extent is not that unusual being similar to that observed ten years ago!"
## [1491] "First, we see in ALL regions a negative correlation between temperature and the total number of strong to violent tornadoes in the U.S."
## [1492] "There is good reason for this cooling climate consternation. As David Whitehouse at the Global Warming Policy Foundation points out : If we have not passed it already, we are on the threshold of global observations becoming incompatible with the consensus theory of climate change. Whitehouse notes that there has been no statistically significant increase in annual global temperatures since 1997. He goes on to say: If the standstill (lower temperatures) continues for a few more years, it will mean that no one who has just reached adulthood, or younger, will have witnessed the Earth get warmer during their lifetime. (Since 1997, atmospheric CO 2 has increased from 370 ppm to 390 ppm. )"
## [1493] "Environmentalist Lawrence Solomon wrote in the Financial Post, Now an increasing number of scientists are swinging back to the thinking of the 1960s and 1970s. The global cooling hypothesis may have been right after all, they say Earth may be entering a new Little Ice Age."
## [1494] "To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the worlds weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earths climate seems to be cooling down."
## [1495] "Error 2. CAP and George Will have it wrong. Will wrote that it hasn??t warmed in ???more than a decade,?? while Brad Johnson claims that ???global warming is continuing.?? According to data from the University of Alabama in Huntsville, compiled by NASA??s Dr. Roy Spenser, there has been no statistical warming of lower atmosphere temperatures over the past seven years, despite the fact that global greenhouse gas emissions have increased."
## [1496] "Skeptical Science can accuratelystate that the climate system is warmer today than it was several decades ago. However, the weblog is in error in stating thatthe most recent satellite data show that the earth as a whole is warming. There has not been warming significantly, if at all, since 2003, as most everyone on all sides of the climate issue agree. The real world evidence in these two figures document their erroneous statement."
## [1497] "It's peak North Atlantic hurricane season again and much is being made of a supposedly increased hurricane threat due to man-made global warming."
## [1498] "With increased national Doppler radar coverage, increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades . This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the variability and trend in tornado frequency in the U.S., the total number EF1 and stronger, as well as strong to violent tornadoes (EF3 to EF5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These are the tornadoes that would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports."
## [1499] "Nearly 28,000 people died in Britain last winter, most of them pensioners who could not afford adequate heat. Charities say this is the highest winter death rate in northern Europe, worse even than much colder nations like Finland and Sweden. And this winter has already seen the coldest December night for Wales in 169 years of record keeping. It was Britain's coldest December in 120 years."
## [1500] "\"In the words of the authors, they \"examined the distribution of flood peaks for the eastern United States using annual maximum flood peak records from 572 U.S. Geological Survey stream gaging stations with at least 75 years of observations.\".....Of even greater interest to the climate change debate, however, were their more basic findings that (1) \"only a small fraction of stations exhibited significant linear trends,\" that (2) \"for those stations with trends, there was a split between increasing and decreasing trends,\" and that (3) \"no spatial structure was found for stations exhibiting trends.\" Thus, they were literally forced to conclude, most importantly of all, that (4) \"there is little indication that human-induced climate change has resulted in increasing flood magnitudes for the eastern United States.\"\""
## [1501] "NASA??s blatantly, bogus temperatures (lies?) are an attempt to scare the public into thinking the ice sheets of Greenland are quickly melting away because of unprecedented ???high?? temperatures, including those maximum high temperatures forecasted for the ice sheet this week: an average of a -35F (yes, minus) for the daily high temps . Obviously, the northern ice sheets are safe despite the bogus NASA and Monbiot Arctic alarmism."
## [1502] "The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports about two major hurricanes, on average, make landfall somewhere along the Gulf or Atlantic coast every three years. The year with the most is 2005, when four major hurricanes made landfalls in the United States (Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma), with Wilma setting records as the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record. As Roy Spencer said, \" after the record-setting 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, with a whopping 27 named tropical storms, the bottom pretty much dropped out of hurricane activity since then.\""
## [1503] "In southeastern Massachusetts on February 25, 2015. The U.S. Coast Guard warned mariners of severe ice conditions in coastal waterways and noted that its ice-breaking capabilities were limited by the thickness of the ice. Many navigational buoys and other markers were knocked off their locations or submerged by sea ice, and the Coast Guard encouraged ships to sail by daylight and in visibility of at least one mile."
## [1504] "These ?scientists? have already reached their conclusion that global warming is real and progressing, despite the inconvenient truth that global temperatures have not risen over the past 15 years, even with increasing carbon dioxide emissions. ?Who pressed the pause button?? on global warming, asks The Economist."
## [1505] "???Coldest start to May for more than 70 years.?? In fact, temperatures could hit the lowest ever recorded for May."
## [1506] "Over the last twoweeks, Arctic sea ice extent has taken a sharp turn towards the median, and is now nearly the highest in a decade for the date."
## [1507] "Scientists are struggling to explain a slowdown in climate change that has exposed gaps in their understanding and defies a rise in global greenhouse gas emissions."
## [1508] "Since the 2005 hysterics from the experts, the US has experienced the quietest period on record for hurricanes."
## [1509] "3. Keep the record in front of you. Temperatures have plateaued, albeit at a high level, despite vast increases in emissions."
## [1510] "The Great Pause may well come to an end by this winter. An el Nio event is underway and would normally peak during the northern-hemisphere winter. There is too little information to say how much temporary warming it will cause, though. The temperature spikes of the 1998, 2007, and 2010 el Nios are evident in Figs. 1-4."
## [1511] "NASA has released its latest sea ice report . These are tough times for climate alarmists. The truth is: Theres a lot more sea ice out there this year than they ever imagined ."
## [1512] "Richard Keen at the University of Colorado was the first to notice the changes. On December 5, he published this report comparing his own research into the climate of Alaska with the official version of the UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC). He found no evidence of warming in Alaska over the past three decades, and no substantial difference in average temperature between 1935-1944 and the present time. Overall he found a warming trend of 0.69 Kelvin per century over the span of the twentieth century???while the GHCN dataset projects a warming trend of 2.83 K/century. (The Kelvin is the International System equivalent of a Celsius degree.)"
## [1513] "Since the Earth hit 350 ppm, temperatures in Dublin have been falling faster than four degrees per century."
## [1514] "In a joint press conference NOAA and NASA have just released data for the global surface temperature for 2013. In summary they both show that the pause in global surface temperature that began in 1997, according to some estimates, continues. Statistically speaking there has been no trend in global temperatures over this period. Given that the IPCC estimates that the average decadal increase in global surface temperature is 0.2 deg C, the world is now 0.3 deg C cooler than it should have been. ???David Whitehouse, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, 21 January 2014"
## [1515] "Antarctic sea ice extent at the end of July was the highest on record for that day, growing to 18.077 million sq km. The previous record of 17.783 was set in 2010, whilst the 1981-2010 average was 16.869."
## [1516] "Third, that other tide gauges, scattered around Australia as part of the national tidal network, mostly record rates of long-term rise between about 0.5mm and 2.5mm a year with no change in behaviour in the late 20th century that might reflect a human (global warming) influence."
## [1517] "And now, even though CO2 levels continue to rise, temperatures have stayed steady or even declined."
## [1518] "while ignoring that there is no evidence that climate has become more variable or extreme , paleoclimate evidence shows extreme weather is more common during cold periods,and many climate models predict less extreme weather in a warmer climate."
## [1519] "Spencer gives us a graph of temperatures from 1950 to 2010 that shows an increase of about 1.8 degrees centigrade over 60 years for a DT/dt = 0.03 Degrees Centigrade per year. He then presents a chart documenting a decreasing trend that shown US F3 to F5 tornadoes dropping from 43 to 27 in a fairly consistent linear progression. This gives us a DN/dt = -0.267 F3 to F5 tornadoes per year."
## [1520] "Nevertheless, it is absolutely clear that there is no evidence that there is a trend of growing extremes and more disasters, and that fits with what scientists have long said about global warming."
## [1521] "But for 18 years, despite the Met Offices increasingly desperate attempts to claim otherwise, those cussed temp-eratures have simply refused to rise in tandem, as their computer models predicted they should have done."
## [1522] "Some CAGW proponents argument against the recent stall in the global warming trends with this graph called ???escalator??. Source: www.skepticalscience.com"
## [1523] "An updated list of at least29323638394151526364 65 66 excuses forthe 18-26 year statistically significant 'pause' in global warming , including recent scientific papers, media quotes, blogs, and related debunkings:"
## [1524] "UK Met Office data shows no warming for 16 years"
## [1525] "Eighty-eight percent of the NOAA tide gauges show sea level rise rates lower than 3.1 mm/year. This applies for both currentlyactivetidegaugesand defunct ones. Almost all of the tide gauges which show 3.1 mm/year are in subduction zones."
## [1526] "Regardless, for the next 20-25 years, humanity will likely be in another cooling period, caused by the suns reduced energy output and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We are about 150 years into the modern warming. Since the shortest of these warm periods during the Halocene was 350 years, and they generally last 350 to 800 years, it is unlikely that we will enter another Little Ice Age for a couple more centuries."
## [1527] "What Heidi means by this is that October temperatures have been flat for the past fourteen years, and that there is no evidence of recent global warming."
## [1528] "If the ACC has evidence about imaginary global warming and links to increased flooding, the IPCC doesnt appear to know about it:"
## [1529] "At the 59-minute mark, on whether storms are becoming more frequent and severe, von Storch says he doesnt think this is the case and that the disasters are more about the over-development of coastal areas."
## [1530] "FACT: Rahmstorfs sea level projection is an extreme outlier, way out of the mainstream."
## [1531] "This is not to say that hurricanes like super storm Sandy or tornadoes have not occurred, but it is to say that there have been far fewer. These weather events affecting the United States have been in decline: That is the reality."
## [1532] "This finding, as they astutely state, \"may question the common belief that frequency and severity of such events closely relates to climate mean states,\" which conclusion essentially rebuffs the well-worn climate-alarmist claim that global warming will lead to more frequent and severe floods and droughts. The odds are that if global warming didn't do so over the past thousand or more years, it likely won't do so in the future."
## [1533] "As Lee describes it, \"relative sea level has risen over the second half of the 20th century,\" and \"so have Holderness cliff recession rates, from around 1.2 m/year in the early 1950s to around 1.5 m/year by 2000.\" However , as he continues, \"there has been no significant acceleration in the rate of global sea-level rise since 1990 and no rapid increase in the recession rate.\" Thus, he states that \"predictions of 20-year recession distances made in the early 1990s that took account of the RSLR advice from MAFF (1991) are likely to have overestimated the risk to cliff-top property and the benefits of coast protection.\""
## [1534] "The statement Tamino seems to dispute is a statement of observed fact. The observed fact is that trend lines (Im assuming the author meant 2001-current as this decade) show that there has been cooling. This is not the same as saying that global warming has stopped, nor is it a statement that says this could be one of those aberrations that occur with fluctuating data. It says that, given the observed data, the trends are negative."
## [1535] "lThey recognise the global warming pause first reported by The Mail on Sunday last year is real and concede that their computer models did not predict it. But they cannot explain why world average temperatures have not shown any statistically significant increase since 1997."
## [1536] "In a study of cyclic behaviour of the Sun, Russian scientists now predict 100 years of cooling."
## [1537] "Well, except for the fact that landfalling hurricanes are at an all-time low."
## [1538] "Global temperatures have largely plateaued during the past 15 years as natural variability including oceans absorbing more heat and volcanic activity have acted to stall warming at the planet??s surface."
## [1539] "Global warming activists have been giddy in their hyping of the satellite era record low Arctic sea ice extent while ignoring the satellite record sea ice expansion in the Antarctic."
## [1540] "According to the scientists, global temperatures will fall another 0.15C by 2015, which corresponds to the climate of the early 1980s."
## [1541] "These findings are contradictory to the conclusions drawn by Emanuel and Webster et al. . They do not support the argument that global TC frequency, intensity and longevity have undergone increases in recent years. Utilizing global best track data, there has been no significant increasing trend in ACE and only a small increase (~10%) in Category 45 hurricanes over the past twenty years, despite an increase in the trend of warming sea surface temperatures during this time period."
## [1542] "Of course, even though the headline talks of ???climate change, and even though temperatures haven??t risen in more than 17 years, the article itself still wails about global warming."
## [1543] "Global warming isnt happening - temperatures have gone nowhere for 20 years. Yet we continue to spend billions fixing a non-existent problem."
## [1544] "A shiny new satellite suggests that a cooling period of up to 23 years could be coming."
## [1545] "when averaging over the entire contiguous U.S., there is no overall trend in flood magnitudes"
## [1546] "Moreover, the history of flood events in Eastern Australia (particularly southern Queensland and Northern NSW) is inextricably linked to both La Nina occurrence and PDO/IPO phases."
## [1547] "If we were fans of the alarm and extrapolated the latter trend, we would deal with 75 C of global cooling per century. That could indeed be a catastrophe. If we extrapolated the 0.28 C month-on-month cooling since December, the cooling would remove 336 C per century, dropping below 0 Kelvins before 2100. Entertainingly enough, January 2008 was also 0.27 C (anomaly-wise) colder than June 1988 when Hansen gave his infamous testimony before the U.S. Congress, predicting a dangerous warming in the following 20 years."
## [1548] "What is the historical context for the July heat wave over western Russia? During the period 1880-2009, the region??s monthly July surface temperatures have experienced several very warm years of about +3C departures (1931 , 1955, 1981, 1988, and 2002), and comparably cold Julys having about -3C departure (1950, 1957, 1968, 1976, and 1994). Warm Julys alternating with cold Julys describes the typical sequence of events over western Russia during the last 130 years, with little or no discernible trend in July temperatures since 1880. Yet, the July 2010 anomalies averaged over western Russia will exceed the warmest Julys on record, and such an extreme event demands an explanation."
## [1549] "Eastern Russia is so freezing minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit, and counting that the traffic lights recently stopped working in the city of Yakutsk. But if it was CO2-caused global warming, Eastern Russia ought to be warmer."
## [1550] "There has been much discussion in recent days about the new decadal forecast of global temperatures, sneaked out by the UK Met Office on Christmas Eve, and which shows flatlining temperatures instead of the the rapidly increasing ones previously forecast."
## [1551] "Because of this failure and the fact that the IPCC Mean Annual Global Temperature anomaly has not changed for the past 17 years, they have decided to treat it on a decadal basis instead, as follows:"
## [1552] "There has been little or no sea level rise in Vancouver over the last century."
## [1553] "Counter to the alarmist claims that AGW is causing the California drought, Obama's National Climate Assessment Report shows precipitation has increased throughout over 90% of California relative to the 1901-1960 mean. In addition, less than 5% of the contiguous US shows and increase in drought and most regions show either an increase in precipitation or no change compared to the 1901-1960 mean."
## [1554] "The finding could help explain the slowdown in temperature rises this century that climate sceptics have seized on as evidence climate change has stopped, even though 14 of the 15 hottest years on record have happened since 2000."
## [1555] "Were stuck in our own experiment, the Australasian Antarctic Expedition said in a statement. We came to Antarctica to study how one of the biggest icebergs in the world has altered the system by trapping ice. We are now ourselves trapped by ice surrounding our ship."
## [1556] "Arctic Sea ice extent 30% or greater (DMI)"
## [1557] "Now the UK Met Office is saying that such slowing for a decade or so has been seen in the past in observations and is simulated in climate models, where they are temporary events. There are no decade-long pauses in projected global surface temperatures in Figure 2, for scenarios A2, A1B or B2. Global surface temperatures are, however, responding similarly to the Constant Composition Commitment, which according to the IPCC means greenhouse gas concentrations are fixed at year 2000 levels. Yet greenhouse gas concentrations continue to climb."
## [1558] "Faced with the embarrassing fact that sea level is not rising nearly as much as alarmist computer models predict, the University of Colorado?s NASA-funded Sea Level Research Group has announced it will begin adding a scientifically unjustified 0.3 millimeters per year to its Global Mean Sea Level Time Series."
## [1559] "As can be seen, over the first 15-period, prior to 1998, there was a strong warming trend (+1.4 degrees per century). As a result, the experts said human CO2 was the cause. They then emphatically predicted that this warming trend would continue and even accelerate. But it didn't - instead it decelerated."
## [1560] "A new reanalysis by two NASA scientists of the three standard ice-monitoring techniques slashes the estimated loss from East Antarctica, challenging the large, headline-grabbing losses reported lately for the continent as a whole."
## [1561] "An ever-green climate lie says: Sea levels are rising fast and will soon drown a city near you. We need money from rich countries to cope. Leaders in the Pacific nations should monitor the tide gauges which surround the Pacific Ocean from US west coast, Canada, Alaska, Australia, New Zealand and Hawaii. They show no unusual rising in sea levels. Land and sea levels are always changing, totally oblivious to trace gases in the atmosphere. There are marine fossils in the Himalayas and the Andes, and ancient cities now lie beneath the oceans."
## [1562] "Healso said that you may well enter a decade or two of coolingrelative to the presenttemperature level , however he did not indicate when any two decadesof cooling would happen or whether the second decadeafter the nextdecade will also be cooling. Read here and here ."
## [1563] "Growing. Not melting. In Norway, many maritime glaciers were able to gain mass, Zemp concedes. (???Able to gain mass means growing.) In North America, Zemp also concedes, some positive values were reported from the North Cascade Mountains and the Juneau Ice Field. (???Displaying positive values means growing.) Remember, were still coming out of the last ice age. Ice is supposed to melt as we come out of an ice age. The ice has been melting for 11,000 years. Why should today be any different? Im guessing that most Canadians and Northern Europeans are very happy that the ice has been melting."
## [1564] "There seems little doubt that the Arctic will be in for another cold period during the next 30 years or so, and that, as Judith Curry indicates, we will see a long term recovery of Arctic ice extent."
## [1565] "Finally it is hard to understand Sackurs claim, No longer does thick ice protect their shoreline . In 2012 the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported ice extent in the Bering Sea was much greater than average, reaching the second-highest levels for January in the satellite record. NASAs Earth Observatory wrote, For most of the winter of 20112012, the Bering Sea has been choking with sea ice NSIDC data indicate that ice extent in the Bering Sea for most of this winter has been between 20 to 30 percent above the 1979 to 2000 average. February 2012 had the highest ice extent for the area since satellite records started. And in 2013 Bering Sea ice was again above normal as seen in National Snow and Ice Data Center picture."
## [1566] "Gore: The US West and the Southeast are experiencing prolonged severe droughts. Truth: America also endured the Dust Bowl and a 25-year drought that forced Anasazi Indians to abandon their villages."
## [1567] "Five years later we are up to almost 400 ppm, and Antarctic sea ice hassteadilyincreased to record levels."
## [1568] "Ice extent loss has dropped off dramatically in the last few days, as seen in the DMI graph above and the JAXA graph below."
## [1569] "Why Hasn?t The Earth Warmed In Nearly 15 Years?"
## [1570] "Many Manhattans of new ice forming in open water between the older floes, in the Arctic right now."
## [1571] "A significant and accelerated post- Little Ice Age glacial retreat was observed in the first and second decades of the 20th century; but by 1952, the region's glaciers had experienced between 75 to 100% of their net 20th century retreat. During the next 50 years, the recession of over half of the glaciers stopped, and many tidewater glaciers actually began to advance. These glacial stabilizations and advances were attributed by the authors to observed increases in precipitation and/or decreases in temperature. In the four decades since 1961, for example, weather stations at Novaya Zemlya show summer temperatures to have been 0.3 to 0.5C colder than those of the prior 40 years, while winter temperatures have been between 2.3 to 2.8C colder than they were over the prior 40-year period. Such observations, the authors say, are \"counter to warming of the Eurasian Arctic predicted for the twenty-first century by climate models, particularly for the winter season.\""
## [1572] "Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. The fact is that we cant account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we cant. The data published in the August 2009 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate."
## [1573] "Troy is forecast to be 22 degrees cooler today than it was on the same day in 1926. Experts tell us that this dramatic reduction in temperature since 1926 is due to man-made global warming."
## [1574] "Those who pointed this out, including yours truly, were labeled \"denialists.\" Yet the IPCC itself finally admitted the \"pause\" in its latest report."
## [1575] "That admission came in a new paper by prominent warmists in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics. They not only conceded that average global surface temperatures stopped warming a full 15 years ago, but that this \"pause\" could extend into the 2030s."
## [1576] "As Antarctic ice extent breaks its all-maximum time record, we must not forget that the worlds greatest climatologist predicted peak ice loss, right at the spot where they have had peak ice gain."
## [1577] "Attention is often focussed on the late 20thC increase in CET, which is in turn linked to IPCC claims that this was when global warming began in earnest. This argument, of course, rather falls flat on its face with the rapid decline in CET since 2006."
## [1578] "Several recent papers have provided SLR numbers which need to be examined carefully in the context of present debate on global warmingand sea level rise. A paper by Holgate (2007, Geophysical Research Letters ) analyzed nine long and nearly continuous sea level records over one hundred years ( 1903-2003) and obtained a mean value of SLR as 1.74mm/yr, with higher values in the earlier part of the 20 th century compared to the latter part."
## [1579] "Pio XI Glacier, the largest glacier of the Patagonian ice field, has been advancing for years"
## [1580] "How could this be global warming, but 34 years ago, that was an Ice Age coming?"
## [1581] "There have been three recent studies producing projections for tropical cyclone changes in the Australian region. Two suggest that there will be no significant change in tropical cyclone numbers off the east coast of Australia to the middle of the 21st century. The third study, based on the CSIRO simulations, shows a significant decrease in tropical cyclone numbers for the Australian region especially off the coastline of Western Australia. The simulations also show more long-lived eastern Australian tropical cyclones although one study showed a decrease in long-lived cyclones off the Western Australian coast."
## [1582] "[UPDATE: The underlying claim of these two papers is that although there have been no large eruptionsin the 21st century, it is the weaker eruptionsthat are causing the plateau in temperature. These are eruptionswith a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of four. Some commenters below still think that the eruptions of VEI fourare significant. The Santer document shows the effect of some of the VEI 4 eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD), which is their main indication of volcanic change. The study says:"
## [1583] "Fourthly, the backgrounder claims that global warming is causing both droughts and floods. Regardless of whether this is the case, deaths from droughts have declined by 99.9% since the 1920s, and 99% from floods since the 1930s. In fact, since the 1920s, average annual deaths from all extreme weather events have dropped by 95 percent while annual death rates, which factor in population growth, have been reduced by 99 percent."
## [1584] "When paleoclimatologists met in 1972 to discuss how and when the present warm climate would end, termination seemed imminent and it was expected that rapid cooling would lead to the coming ice age."
## [1585] "Recent extreme weather cannot be blamed on global warming, because there has not been any global warming to speak of. It is as simple as that."
## [1586] "However, Monaghan et al. note that there is evidence of conflicting trends in ice sheet thickness across Antarctica: the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been thinning over the past decade, while the East Antarctic Ice Sheet became thicker over the period 1992 through 2003 (Davis et al. 2005). Previous work attributed the thickening of the East Ice Sheet to an increase in snowfall accumulation across that portion of the continent, following the logic of a warmer atmosphere and therefore greater moisture capacity. The thinning of the West Ice Sheet, however, is not well explained. As it turns out, Monaghan and his colleagues do not think that the thickening of the East Ice Sheet is well explained either!"
## [1587] "Check, I agreeover the long term and slowly, just as greenhouse gas theory holds. But the atmosphere is not continuing to warm right now."
## [1588] "Theaveragefor all 194 stations (including ones which are now defunct) is higher at 0.8 mm/year. This indicates that sea level rise rates are slowing this century, and are much lower than the wildly bogus claims of 3.1 mm from the University of Colorado and elsewhere."
## [1589] "Last week, scientists from the United States Commerce Departments National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said that a study of temperature readings for the contiguous 48 states over the last century showed there had been no significant change in average temperature over that period. Dr. (Phil) Jones said in a telephone interview today that his own results for the 48 states agreed with those findings."
## [1590] "Global Warming Brings An Avalanche Of Bitter Cold Winter Forecasts"
## [1591] "In 2009 Guy Wppelmann et al examined what effects vertical land movement had on the sea level data from tide gauges and published their results in the Geophysical Research Letters . The scientists evaluated globally 227 stations whose elevation was monitored by GPS. 160 of these stations were located at a distance maximum 15 km from the coast. By measuring the vertical movement of the tide gauges, they were able to apply a correction. From this they calculated a mean global sea level rise of 1.61 mm/year over the last century. Figure 1 shows that sea level rise has remained constant since 1940 no acceleration over the last 70 years!"
## [1592] "As a result, the North Atlantic experiences alternating decades long (20 to 30 year periods or even longer) of above normal or below normal hurricane seasons. NOAA research shows that the tropical multi-decadal signal is causing the increased Atlantic hurricane activity since 1995, and is not related to greenhouse warming."
## [1593] "In northeastern Germany, March is the coldest since at least 130 years ago. In Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg and Berlin, the DWD average temperatures measured up to almost minus two degrees, which lie very close to the previous March-cold record from 1883. In the last four days of the month will determine whether there is even a record. It would then be the coldest March since records began 1881st"
## [1594] "1) Since 1980, temperatures had fallen in the Antarctic by 0.87C, nearly as much as the rise of 1.01C in the Arctic (to August 2012)."
## [1595] "Whether there is a link between asthma and global warming, Malia herself hasn't really experienced much. The high school junior was born in 1998, when temperatures spiked. By some measurements, the world hasn't warmed significantly since then."
## [1596] "Obviously the planet??s temperature (red line) hasn??t increased nearly as much as they forecast. After the temperature peak in 1998 (a strong El Nino year), the temperature appears to have leveled off. The temperature is only shown here to the beginning of 2010: in 2010 (another strong El Nino year) it peaked at the 0.6 degree line (cooler than in 1998), and as of March 2011 is plunging below the 0.4 degree line."
## [1597] "The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane season did not meet the hyperactive expectations of the storm pontificators. This is good news, just like it was last year. With the breathless media coverage prior to the 2006 and 2007 seasons predicting a catastrophic swarm of hurricanes potentially enhanced by global warming a la Katrina, there is currently plenty of twisting in the wind to explain away the hyperbolic projections. The predominant refrain mentions something about ???being lucky?? and having ???escaped?? the storms, and ???just wait for next year??."
## [1598] "A paper published last month in the journal Climate Dynamics finds that \"The Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) shows an increased trend during 19792009 , with a trend rate of 1.36 0.43% per decade. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition analysis shows that the rate of the increased trend has been accelerating in the past decade. \""
## [1599] "And then there is the temperature \"hiatus.\" Despite increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, there has been virtually no temperature increase since roughly 2002, despite the predictions of the climate models. No one knows why; the science is not settled, nor can it ever be, by definition."
## [1600] "Llasat et al .'s work revealed \"an increase of flood events for the periods 1580-1620, 1760-1800 and 1830-1870,\" and they report that \"these periods are coherent with chronologies of maximum advance in several alpine glaciers.\" In addition, we calculate from their tabulated data that for the aggregate of the three river basins noted above, the mean number of what Llasat et al . call catastrophic floods per century for the 14th through 19th centuries was 3.55 0.22, while the corresponding number for the 20th century was only 1.33 0.33. What it means"
## [1601] "The satellite measurements show no temperature change between 1979 and 1997, but is then followed by a large sharp peak in 1998 because of the El Nino ocean event of that year, and since 2001 has shown a modest warm spell."
## [1602] "in the U.S. there has been little temperature change in the past 50 years , the time of rapidly increasing greenhouse gases in fact, there was a slight cooling throughout much of the country (Figure 2)"
## [1603] "Anyway, back to the Antarctic. There are reports that the ice sheet is shrinking at a faster rate, based on research led by Eric Rignot, of the Radar Science and Engineering Section at NASAs Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. Dr. Rignot attributed the shrinkage in the ice sheet to an upwelling of warm waters along the Antarctic coast, which is causing some glaciers to flow more rapidly into the ocean. Of course, this must be due to global warming, which must be caused by man. Meanwhile, mid-summer in the Southern Hemisphere Ice extent remains well (one million square kilometers) above the 28 year average and an impressive 3 million square kilometers above last year at this time!"
## [1604] "I would say before this decade ends because what is GOING to happen is the global temperature trend is going to be in a definitive down turn due to prolonged minimum solar conditions and the associated secondary effects."
## [1605] "And, as for wet summers, none have been remotely as wet as the summer of 1912. Citizens of Norwich may well have heard about the disastrous floods of that year, when an incredible seven inches of rain fell in one day."
## [1606] "A REPORT warning of increasing heatwaves across western Sydney fails to account for wide variations in temperatures recorded in different parts of the city and over time."
## [1607] "As for average summertime maximum temperature in Missouri's third climate division since 1896: the correlation is one toward cooling, not warming, during the summer. That applies for the rest of the state as well."
## [1608] "Meteorologist Aaron Reynolds said some areas will receive up to two feet (61 cm) of snow and in some areas even three feet (91 cm) of snow."
## [1609] "Green shows the 56%increase in Arctic sea ice extent since the same date in 2012. Red shows ice loss"
## [1610] "By Paul Homewood Before anybody gets carried away with claims of record rainfall that we keep hearing about in the UK, lets consider the facts. In the UK as a whole , January was only tie 17th wettest month since 1910, with 183.8mm. Relatively speaking, last month was wetter in England & Wales, but even there it was only the 16th wettest month, on the England & Wales Series , dating back to 1766 . Last month recorded 184.6mm, well short of the wettest month on record, October 1903, which had 218.1mm. The table below lists the wettest months on the England & Wales series."
## [1611] "And now for the 2nd question: Does the massive cold air outbreak blanketing much of the U.S. disprove global warming?"
## [1612] "\"The story was headlined, \"Sea levels rising twice as fast as predicted.' The first sentence did not agree with the headline: \"Sea levels are predicted to rise twice as fast as was forecast by the United Nations only two years ago ' That is, the soothsayers have read their chicken entrails again and decided that their previous divinations were not dire enough. This has nothing to do with actual sea level rise. For the past several years, sea level rise has been below the average rate of the twentieth century, which in total was about seven inches.\""
## [1613] "Reality Check: Winter Of 2009/10 Coldest Winter For Over 30 Years"
## [1614] "Lower and Middle Tropospheric temperatures show slow warming overlaid with the El Nio/La Nia Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, including four comparatively large El Nio events. Tropospheric temperatures appear to have flattened since the large El Nio in 1998 and offer no indication that Earth is experiencing rapid or extreme warming."
## [1615] "Almost seven years have passed since Florida was hit by a hurricane, the longest such period on record. Florida averages almost one hurricane per year. During the 1870s, Florida was hit by 12 hurricanes."
## [1616] "18 April 2015 ??? Eleven inches (25 cm) of snow had fallen on mid-mountain by 9 a.m., said Aspen Skiing Co. spokesman Jeff Hanle. The snow continued for at least 90 minutes after that."
## [1617] "If you graph the intensity or number of hurricanes; the temperature fluctuations; the total number of extreme temperature events; or many other things that depend on non-uniformity and non-constancy of the quantities describing the atmosphere, you will see that theres been no significant global trend in either of them during the last 100 years or so."
## [1618] "Claims that sea level rise is accelerating are shown to be misleading."
## [1619] "NSIDC needed something negative to say about Arctic ice, and if they waited another week they couldnt have said it. Those areas of low concentration ice are now high concentration ice."
## [1620] "Sorry, Steve Running, Wildfires Are Decreasing with Global Warming"
## [1621] "Strike one : No one measuring ice extent or area shows a decline since 2007."
## [1622] "Hurricanes were supposed to get bigger and more frequent, instead we??ve had an unbroken 7 years long drought for major Cat3-5 hurricanes , and Sandy wasn??t even a hurricane when it made landfall . The last Category 3 or stronger storm to make landfall was Hurricane Wilma making landfall onOctober 24, 2005. The more than seven years (2568 days as of today ??? ref here ) since then is the longest such span in over a century."
## [1623] "More rational people, like Bob Tisdale, take the long term view and point out that sea surface temperature anomalies along Sandys track havent warmed in 70+ years , while Roger Pielke points out that there is no recent trend in US Hurricane Intensity from 1900-2012 ?? ???the last five years have been the ??? lowest period of landfalling hurricane intensity of any five-year period dating all the way back to 1900.?? Sandy apparently wasn??t an unprecedented record storm surge either ( Tropical Cyclone Mahina, Bathurst Bay, Australia in 1899, was). There have been plenty of worse storms."
## [1624] "In late September, Antarctic sea ice hit an all-time high, reaching the highest levelsince modern data-recording began. Chart source: National Snow and Ice Data Center."
## [1625] "With respect to the linkage between higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and hurricane activity, the pair notes that Given the increase of intense hurricane landfalls during the later half of the Little Ice Age, tropical SSTs as warm as at present are apparently not a requisite condition for increased intense hurricane activity. In addition, the Caribbean experienced a relatively active interval of intense hurricanes for more than a millennium when local SSTs were on average cooler than modern. They found that hurricane activity over the past 5,000 years has been modulated by the El Nio / La Nia cycle and the strength of the West African monsoon, not by the sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and certainly not by global temperatures."
## [1626] "Efforts to link dangerous impacts of extreme weather events to human-caused warming are misleading and unsupported by evidence."
## [1627] "The most widely used metric of global warmingglobal surface temperaturesindicates that the rate of global warming has slowed drastically and that the duration of the halt in global warming is unusual during a period when global surface temperatures are allegedly being warmed from the hypothetical impacts of manmade greenhouse gases."
## [1628] "The most widely used metric of global warming global surface temperatures the metric most often used in predictions of future gloom and doom, indicates that the rate of global warming has slowed drastically and that the duration of the hiatus in global warming is unusual during a period when global surface temperatures are allegedly being warmed from the hypothetical impacts of manmade greenhouse gases."
## [1629] "Regarding storms, studiesfind no long-term increase in the strength and frequency of land-falling hurricanes globally over the past 50-70 years and no trend in Atlantic tropical cyclone behavior over the past 370 years ."
## [1630] "A short two weeks laterI wrotea post about record cold in the US in 2014, and find out that the US has shrunk down to 1/2 of 1 percent of the Earths Surface"
## [1631] "Arroyo: Carol, some groups say the 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that they failed to recognize this pause in global warming. Is that an issue? Do they have a point? Theres been this sort of 18 year pause where, you dont, its not warming up? (See: Global warming pause expands to new record length': No warming for 18 years 5 months )"
## [1632] "It is instructive to note that over the past century and a half of ever-increasing fossil fuel utilization and atmospheric CO 2 buildup , the frequency of the most intense category of hurricanes in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico has been lower than it was over the prior five millennia , which speaks volumes about the climate-alarmist claim that continued anthropogenic CO 2 emissions will lead to more frequent super cyclones and hurricanes."
## [1633] "There was a cooling scare in the early 1970s at the end of the last cooling phase. The current global warming alarm is based on the last warming oscillation, from 1975 to 2001. The IPCC predictions simply extrapolated the last warming as if it would last forever, a textbook case of alarmism. However the last warming period ended after the usual thirty years or so, and the global temperature is now definitely tracking below the IPCC predictions."
## [1634] "Bove found also most large outbreaks and major tornadoes occur in cold (La Nina) or neutral (La Nada) years. He refers to the analyses by Grazulis in 1991."
## [1635] "Indeed, the \"experts\" have been unable to scientifically explain why there has been a 'hiatus' or 'pause' in global warning, let alone the cooling trends experienced in various parts of the world. That doesn't mean the scientists are not speculating as hard as possible as to why - so far, they have conjured up 7 reasons they never mentioned prior to the global warming going AWOL."
## [1636] "Stratford Mountain Club spokesman Rob Needs said it was the most significant snow to fall at such low levels and so early in the winter season for several decades."
## [1637] "Fan DaiDu et al looked at proxies (microfossils, sedimentary organic layers, storm deposits, tree rings, stalagmites and corals) and found there was no simple linear relationship between typhoons and temperature over the Holocene period. Basically, it??s about La Nina??s rather than degrees C. More hurricanes and typhoons occur in China, and Central and North America during La Nina years. Even though it was warmer 8000 years ago, the storms weren??t worse."
## [1638] "This finding comes less than a week after another astonishing revelation published in the prestigious journal Nature, which reports that Antarctica's harsh desert valleys long considered a bellwether for global climate change have grown noticeably cooler since 1986. Indeed, air temperature readings taken continuously over the region indicate a significant cooling of over 1 degree Fahrenheit and this defies a worldwide land-based warming trend spanning the past 100 years."
## [1639] "Yet the evidence to the contrary was there all along. Back in 2005 I and others reviewed the entire hurricane record, which goes back over a century, and found no increase of any kind. Yes, we sometimes get bad storms but no more frequently now than in the past. The advocates simply ignored that evidence then repeated their false claims after Hurricane Sandy last year."
## [1640] "Well, science says something different. All these weather events ??? much like the Earth and the Solar System ??? have been around for 4.6 billion years. Up to noisy fluctuations and some potentially understandable, mild, regular, persistent climate cycles, not necessarily periodic ones, nothing has detectably changed about the frequency or probabilistic distributions of these events in the last several thousands of years. If we improve the theory by the glaciation cycles, nothing has changed for one million of years."
## [1641] "It turns out that, contrary to popular belief, Greenland ice sheet flow might not be accelerated by increased melting after all, says Shepherd, who was not involved in the research or peer review of the paper."
## [1642] "Figure 7: Sea level development around the Tarawa atoll based on tide gauges. There is no detectable rise. Diagram source: Donner (2012) ."
## [1643] "All that blue indicates that, yes, July was, as Murphy said, colder than normal in the northern and eastern parts of the United States, in some cases record cold. Granted, the planet won't be uniformly warm (or cold), but record cold? In July? At a time when the planet is supposed to be not only warming, but experiencing (according to IPCC president Rajendra Pachauri) \"accelerated\" warming? (See Christopher Monckton's article debunking this claim.)"
## [1644] "The model in Figure 3 predicts global cooling until 2030. This result is also supported by shifts in PDO that occurred at the end of the last century, which is expected to result in global cooling until about 2030 ."
## [1645] "We are already 12 years into the 30 from 2000 to 2030. As you can see from the above animated plots, there appears to have been a distinct lack of accelerationin the last 100 years or so. Roughly speaking, the sea level along the coast of California is rising at about 2 mm/year. So it looks like there will be a netrisesurpassing the National Research Councils lower limit of 4 cm in 30 years. On the other hand, it would require an extraordinary, nearly impossible acceleration to get to 15 cm, justhalf the NRCs upper estimate of 30 cm, by 2030. But you can still pray to Gaia for a miracle."
## [1646] "However, as the actual empirical evidence through November 2011 reveals, it is highly unlikely that either of these \"scientists\" could find his own ass with his hands. Even using Santer's own preferred 17-year analysis span (chart on left), it is clear that global warming is insignificant and likely moving towards a cooling phase."
## [1647] "Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought. The drought of 1999 covered a smaller area than the 1988 drought, when the Mississippi almost dried up. And 1988 was a temporary inconvenience as compared with repeated droughts during the 1930s Dust Bowl that caused an exodus from the prairies, as chronicled in Steinbecks Grapes of Wrath ."
## [1648] "In the latest report from GWPF, David Whitehouse has examined the 21st century temperature standstill and the history of attempts to, ahem, deny its existence."
## [1649] "As of Wednesday, Jan. 13, the area has experienced 12 consecutive days of below freezing temperatures ??? a new record."
## [1650] "The only consolation at the moment is that global temperatures have failed to rise for more than a decade now, and have turned sharply downward in the past 18 months."
## [1651] "The authors note that \"the section of Antarctica drained by Pine Island Glacier and the fast flowing glacier itself have been the subject of much speculation and discussion, but they have received relatively little quantitative examination.\" The present work does much to alleviate this deficiency and suggests there is no reason for undue concern about the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet ."
## [1652] "The warming vs cooling depends on the place (as well as the month, as I mentioned) and the warming places only have a 2-to-1 majority while the cooling places are a sizable minority. Of course, if you calculate the change of the global mean temperature, you get a positive sign - you had to get one of the signs because the exact zero result is infinitely unlikely. But the actual change of the global mean temperature in the last 77 years (in average) is so tiny that the place-dependent noise still safely beats the \"global warming trend\", yielding an ambiguous sign of the temperature trend that depends on the place."
## [1653] "The bounce back in the extent of sea ice in the Arctic this summer was reflected also in the volume of ice."
## [1654] "The UK's HadCRUT global temperature dataset indicates a global cooling trend of -0.2C/century over last 15 years, plus May 2012 was slightly cooler - the global warming science facts, per the IPCC's own gold-standard"
## [1655] "The only more prolific snow-producers this deep into March occurred March 28-29, 1942 (11.5 inches), and March 27-28, 1891 (12 inches)."
## [1656] "It is abundantly clear from Stambaugh et al .'s findings that there is nothing unusual, unnatural or unprecedented about any 20th or 21st century droughts that may have occurred throughout the agricultural heartland of the United States. It is also clear that the much greater droughts of the past millennium occurred during periods of both relative cold and relative warmth , as well as the transitions between them . Thus, to testify that \"droughts are becoming longer and more intense,\" and to imply that they are doing so because of global warming, is to be doubly disingenuous ."
## [1657] "Reporters also pressed NOAA climatologists about the severe cold weather currently hitting most of the U.S. and how much longer Americans could expect to freeze. The main question: is this caused by global warming?"
## [1658] "Get this. First, there has been no recent global warming in the common meaning of the term, for world average temperature has cooled for the last ten years. Furthermore, since 1940 the earth has warmed for nineteen years and cooled for forty-nine, the overall result being that global average temperature is now about the same as it was in 1940."
## [1659] "Hurricanes have not increased in the U.S. in frequency, intensity or normalized damage since at least 1900, Pielke added. The same holds for tropical cyclones globally since at least 1970."
## [1660] "They still have snow on the ground on June 26, with only a few weeks left inthe melt season."
## [1661] "Analysis of trends and of aggregated time series on climatic (30-year) scale does not indicate consistent trends worldwide. Despite common perception, in general, the detected trends are more negative (less intense floods in most recent years) than positive. Similarly, Svensson et al. (2005) and Di Baldassarre et al. (2010) did not find systematical change neither in flood increasing or decreasing numbers nor change in flood magnitudes in their analysis."
## [1662] "Gore: The Arctic is warming at an unprecedented rate. Truth: The Arctic region warms and cools dramatically every few decades, due to shifting currents and winds. Arctic ice also melted significantly during the 1930s; it is now back to seasonally normal levels."
## [1663] "But the significant point about these temperature trends is that there was a step change, but that since then temperatures have stopped increasing. There is no evidence to suggest that temperatures will increase in future years, and, until we understand better the reasons for the step change, there is a possibility that temperatures will fall back in the future."
## [1664] "I wrote this North Idaho weather review on a chilly, snow-covered Saturday morning, Dec. 21, the first official day of the winter season."
## [1665] "The scientists say that Non-periodic processes like a warming through the monotonic increase of CO2 in the atmosphere could cause at most 0.1C to 0.2C warming for a doubling of the CO2 content, as it is expected for 2100. This positive forcing will be overwhelmed by the stronger negative forcing of natural cycles. They conclude that the global temperature will drop until 2100 to a value corresponding to the little ice age of 1870. Read more here . Below is a graph of historical temperatures and temperature predictions."
## [1666] "Thousands of fires have already torched millions of acres, amid yet another dangerous and costly fire season. It happens every year, and has for centuries. But now, the Department of the Interior misinforms us, \"climate change is making it worse. Wildfire seasons are now hotter, drier and longer than in the past.\" Sure they are. Wanna buy a bridge?"
## [1667] "All in all I heard Joe Bastardi forecast here December global temps to drop to about +0.15 to 0.20 above the normal. I say expect a similar drop for January, meaning well be in negative territory. Same goes for February. There just seems to be lots of cold out there."
## [1668] "We now turn to external effects that might explain the existence of a global warming pause; the principal ones are volcanism and solar activity. The problem here is one of balancing; the amount of cooling by volcanism, for example, has to be just right to offset the warming from CO2 during the entire duration of the pause. It is difficult to picture why exactly this might be happening; the probabilities seem rather small. Still, the burden is on the proponents to demonstrate various kinds of evidence in support of such an explanation."
## [1669] "New paper unexpectedly finds diverging trends in global temperature & radiative imbalance from greenhouse gases Paper finds a decrease of IR radiation from greenhouse gases over past 14 years, contradicts expected increase"
## [1670] "To many folks who have, for years, been fed a constant course of the-world-is-heating-up-faster-than-ever-before-and-you-are-the-cause, 9 to 12 years of no warming at all seems to indicate that something is amiss with this mantra."
## [1671] "If increasing emissions of CO2 in the 20th century have anything to do with monsoons, why did they peak in the 1880's and 1920's and decrease since then?"
## [1672] "As ever, a warning about the current el Nio. It is becoming ever more likely that the temperature increase that usually accompanies an el Nio will begin to shorten the Pause somewhat, just in time for the Paris climate summit, though a subsequent La Nia would be likely to bring about a resumption and perhaps even a lengthening of the Pause."
## [1673] "Even though there is this hiatus in this surface average temperature, were still getting record heat waves, were still getting harsh bush fires it shows we shouldnt take any comfort from this plateau in global average temperatures."
## [1674] "So, in what universe does a cold winter, a cool summer, cold lake water, and an unusually cold fall air mass result from global warming ?"
## [1675] "The oddity here is two-fold: what happened around 1977 or so, and what happened around 2002 or so? From 1977 on, after twenty years with no significant land or sea temperature change, both land and sea temperatures start to rise. In addition, the land temperature rises much more rapidly than the SST. Then around 1998, SSTs start to level off, and they peak in 2002 and start to fall. The land temperatures start falling shortly thereafter. Why, on all counts?"
## [1676] "Recent extreme-weather events cannot be blamed on global warming, because there has not been any global warming to speak of. It is as simple as that."
## [1677] "The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year. More than 20 yachts that had planned to sail it have been left ice-bound and a cruise ship attempting the route was forced to turn back."
## [1678] "Indeed, Spencer's satellite data, which measures the average temperature of the lowest few miles of the atmosphere, showed no significant global warming trend for more than 21 years before an incredibly powerful El Nino warming event hit late last year."
## [1679] "NASA just posted their July 2012 global temperature dataset - the hysterical global warming claims made in July don't comport with what looks more like global cooling"
## [1680] "Figure 1 at their site shows winter temperatures at the Hahnenkamm station at Kitzbhel (1790 m). Clearly the trend here is dramatic cooling (7.5C per century) taking place over the last 20 years! Moreover 8 of the coldest winters occurred in the last 11 years alone."
## [1681] "He concludes: When we consider past records, recorded variability, causational processes involved and the last centurys data, our best estimate of possible future sea-level changes is +10 +/- 10cm in a century, or, maybe, even +5 +/- 15cm. See also Morner (1995); INQUA (2000)."
## [1682] "The 2006 average temperatures of 32.5 C in Marble bar , Australia, was the coolest annual temperature in 92 years of records, beating 33.5 C in 1978 by a whole Celsius degree and being 3 Celsius degrees below the average!"
## [1683] "And an extra bonus from the \"weather is not climate\" department January 29, 2010 at 39.9 degrees was ten degrees below normal and the second coldest on record."
## [1684] "But for those who might argue that these data show us entering a long-term period of decline in global sea level, Willis cautions that sea level drops such as this one cannot last, and over the long-run, the trend remains solidly up. Water flows downhill, and the extra rain will eventually find its way back to the sea. When it does, global sea level will rise again."
## [1685] "It is better to focus on the ever-widening discrepancy between predicted and observed warming rates. The IPCCs forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report backcasts the interval of 34 models global warming projections to 2005, since when the world should have been warming at a rate equivalent to 2.33 C/century. Instead, it has been cooling at a rate equivalent to a statistically-insignificant 0.87 C/century:"
## [1686] "But like I said, they havent even come close to proving, or even suggesting, that this drought had anything to do with global warming."
## [1687] "References finding either no acceleration or a deceleration of sea level rise during the 20th and 21st centuries:"
## [1688] "5. Loss of Arctic sea ice, particularly multiyear ice: As Dr. Meier would agree, the satellite record of Arctic ice is quite short, much shorter than the long-term changes in Arctic temperatures. The Arctic was as warm or warmer in the 1930s, and many records from that time attest to greatly reduced ice conditions. Both the Polyakov and the NORDKLIM records show the time around 1979 as being about the bottom of the Arctic temperature swing, so reducing Arctic sea ice is to be expected since 1979. In addition, I was surprised that Dr. Meier did not mention the last three years, which have seen both increasing Arctic sea ice and increasing multiyear sea ice."
## [1689] "You see, the alarmists have been telling us for decades that rapidly accelerating global warming was imminent and unavoidable. The problem for the alarmists is the warming that has occurred has been modest and decelerating. In fact, it has ground to a complete halt for more than a decade."
## [1690] "???Some other experts said however the idea of a hiatus was still valid, since warming had probably slowed this century if compared to fast rates in the 1980s and 1990s."
## [1691] "Climate changers usually warn about Arctic ice, which has been receding over the last few decades, but rarely address the overall growth of ice inAntarctica."
## [1692] "Connecticut is experiencing its coldest February in recorded history . So is Michigan . So is Toronto . Cleveland and Chicago are experiencing their second coldestFebruary in recorded history. Frigid and record cold temperatures are being set from Key West to International Falls . At the same time, blizzard after blizzard is burying much of the nation with record winter snow totals, with winter snowfall records beings set from Boston to Denver ."
## [1693] "Fact 1. A mild warming of about 0.5 degrees Celsius (well within previous natural temperature variations) occurred between 1979 and 1998, and has been followed by slight global cooling over the past 10 years. Ergo, dangerous global warming is not occurring."
## [1694] "There is a good chance that there will be more sea ice on Earth on January 1, than ever measured before on that date."
## [1695] "Global sea ice area has been above normal most of the year, and is averaging above normal in 2013."
## [1696] "It should be clear to everyone from the results obtained by Allan et al . that the number of extreme storms impacting the British Isles over the last eight decades of the 20th century were not in any way related to the global warming of that period, which climate alarmists claim was unprecedented over the prior millennium or more. Reference"
## [1697] "First, lets get rid of the 1998 red herring. The implication is that you can only get this slowdown by picking 1998 as the start year. The reality is that temperatures have been flat since 2001, which was a neutral ENSO year, and therefore comparable to this year. The Wood For Trees graph below shows this well."
## [1698] "New Zealands Climate Science Coalition has issued a press release detailing the end of the Kiwi-gate affair. The outcome is that data published in 2009 by New Zealands National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) entitled Are we feeling warmer yet has been abandoned and replaced with real, unadjusted data that shows a picture that warmists dont want you to see: NIWA makes the huge admission that New Zealand has experienced hardly any warming during the last half-century. For all their talk about warming, for all their rushed invention of the Eleven-Station Series to prove warming, this new series shows that no warming has occurred here since about 1960. Almost all the warming took place from 1940-60, when the IPCC says that the effect of CO2 concentrations was trivial. Indeed, global temperatures were falling during that period."
## [1699] "It seems probable that 2010 will be in terms of global annual average temperature statistically identical to the annual temperatures of the past decade. Some eminent climatologists, such as Professor Phil Jones of the University of East Anglias Climatic Research Unit, suggest the global annual average temperatures havent changed for the past 15 years. We are reaching the point where the temperature standstill is becoming the major feature of the recent global warm period that began in 1980. In brief, the global temperature has remained constant for longer than it has increased. Perhaps this should not be surprising as in the seven decades since 1940 the world has gotten warmer in only two of them, and if one considers each decade individually the increase in temperature in each has barely been statistically significant. Only when the warming in the 1980s is added to that of the first half of the 1990s does the change exceed the noise in the system."
## [1700] "So far, summer 2012 has been thequieteston record for both tornadoes and hurricanes in the US. We also have the fewest forest fires since at least 2003 ."
## [1701] "Britain is already experiencing yet another bitterly cold and snowy winter, the latest in an continuing series of arctic winters which have made a mockery of alarmists predictions that global warming would mean mild winters and no snow in Britain (we all remember the headline about snow in Britain being a thing of the past)."
## [1702] "There has been very little change in May ice extent over the last 30 years. If current linear trends continue, it will be at least 400 years before we have an ice free Arctic in May."
## [1703] "Severe storms, floods, and agricultural losses may cost a great deal of money, but such extreme weather events and their resulting costs are dramatically declining as the Earth modestly warms. 20 Accordingly, EDFs asserted economic costs are actually economic benefits."
## [1704] "The UK Telegraph also recently reported on a cooling planet, quoting climate scientist Professor Anastasios Tsonis of the University of Wisconsin: We are already in a cooling trend , which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped ."
## [1705] "The global warming doomsday writers claim the ice sheets are melting catastrophically, and will cause a sudden rise in sea level of many metres. This ignores the mechanism of glacier flow which is by creep: glaciers are not melting from the surface down, nor are they sliding down an inclined plane lubricated by meltwater."
## [1706] "The Science story shows that when a bandwagon climate scientist like Andreas Schmittner is telling you that the dangers from rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide are expected to be less than predicted you can be sure the game is up for global warming alarmism."
## [1707] "The El Nio years are isolated in Figures 8 and 9. Using the El Nio years as defined by Nuccitelli, Figure 8, it could be argued that the warming rate of global surface temperatures slowed in recent years but its for a short time period, but with the NOAA method, the warming rate of El Nio years have definitely slowed, Figure 9."
## [1708] "And temperatures at the North Pole (fastest warming place on Earth) are also running cold, after the coldest summer on record."
## [1709] "Also note that the excess ice is located at the exact places where Hansen predicted peak sea ice loss."
## [1710] "Martin Hoerling of NOAA on Sandy: ???As to underlying causes, neither the frequency of tropical or extratropical cyclones over N. Atlantic are projected to appreciably change due to climate change?? ??? U.S. Govt Scientist Hoerling: ???Nor have there been indications of a change in their statistical behavior over this region in recent decades??"
## [1711] "And he said that for the past 15 years there has been no ?statistically significant? warming."
## [1712] "The Meteorological Agency, which has been keeping statistics on typhoons since 1951, said the lowest number 16 was in 1998. The average per year between 1971 and 2000 was 26.7, while the most on record is 39 in 1967."
## [1713] "Things can change quickly. 1950 was the second most active hurricane season on record, and the first hurricane didn??t form until August 12."
## [1714] "Scaremongering stories of increased frequency or intensity of hurricanes from CAGW are without observational basis. In addition, climate models project decreased frequency and intensity of hurricanes in the future, due to a decrease in temperature gradients between the tropics and poles."
## [1715] "Once again (see our Editorial of 11 Dec 2002 ), in spite of all the hype about recent dramatic warming in the permafrost regions of Alaska, real-world data demonstrate - at least for Barrow - that it is no warmer there now than it was half a century ago , and the area's permafrost is in no more danger of being wiped out today that it was in the days of our grandparents . Furthermore, the authors note that degradation of permafrost does not proceed as rapidly as many climate alarmists would have one believe. As they describe it, \"degradation of permafrost is a slow process,\" and \"if recent trends continue, it will take several centuries to millennia for permafrost in the present discontinuous zone to disappear completely in the areas where it is actively warming and thawing.\""
## [1716] "This headline may come as a bit of a surprise, so too might that fact that the warmest year recorded globally was not in 2008 or 2007, but in 1998."
## [1717] "Then there were many signs pointing to the possibility that the Earth may be headed for another ice age ( The New York Times , August 14, 1975), moving toward extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciations ( Science , December 10, 1976) and facing continued rapid cooling of the Earth ( Global Ecology , 1971) and the approach of a full-blown 10,000-year ice age ( Science , March 1, 1975)."
## [1718] "Yet, scientific evidence shows that weather would be less extreme in a warmer world. Peer-reviewed studies on droughts, floods, hurricanes and storms show that 20th Century occurrences have been of equal or lesser severity than similar events in past centuries, when Earth??s climate was in the cooler period of the Little Ice Age. The bulk of science shows that today??s climate is not more volatile as alarmists claim."
## [1719] "No, to the contrary. Over the long term the number of deadly tornadoes has even dropped dramatically. However, we have to expect that more people will be hit by tornadoes in the future. Not because there are more storms, but because the population is growing and suburbs and cities are expanding. In any case, 2011 is an unusually violent tornado year and itis just a fluke."
## [1720] "The problem is that this graph does not appear to be correct. Other data sources show Arctic ice having made a nice recovery this summer. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center data shows 2008 ice nearly identical to 2002, 2005 and 2006. Maps of Arctic ice extent are readily available from several sources, including the University of Illinois, which keeps a daily archive for the last 30 years. A comparison of these maps (derived from NSIDC data) below shows that Arctic ice extent was 30 per cent greater on August 11, 2008 than it was on the August 12, 2007. (2008 is a leap year, so the dates are offset by one.)"
## [1721] "The reason he made that prediction is because the ice was very thin that summer. No one made any predictions like that this year, because the ice is much thicker. That is why I think PIOMAS is completely FOS. They claim that the ice is half as thick as 2008."
## [1722] "(He also noted) that U.S. floods have not increased in frequency or intensitysince 1950 and economic losses from floods have dropped by 75 percent as a percentage of GDP since 1940. Tornado frequency, intensity, and normalized damages have also not increased since 1950, and Pielke even notes that there is some evidence that this has declined."
## [1723] "Little Ice Age May Return Soon, Russian Scientists Say"
## [1724] "Climate warming continues, but its taking a break. The reasons for that, among others, are the temporary weak solar irradiance and phenomena such as La Nia."
## [1725] "The results of this study clearly show, contrary to the predictions of some - such as Butzer (1980), for example - that a northward migration of climatic zones in central North America does not appear to be occurring. The authors say that \"this suggests a lack of evidence for any systematic wintertime warming in the central United States that might be anticipated under a global-warming scenario.\" They also note that the same holds true for the summer-sensitive Dfa/Dfb climate boundary (where Dfa climates have distinctly warmer summers than Dfb climates), as demonstrated by Mitchell and Kienholz (1997) in a similar study based on July mean temperatures in the north-central and northeastern United States. These studies thus make an even stronger case than we make for the non-existence of global warming, as we only claim it has not warmed since 1930 (see our Editorial of 1 July 2000 ). References"
## [1726] "Silly me, I thought the point of worrying about sea level rise was the concern about sea-rising compared to the beaches, what??s the point of building a levee to keep out the water if the beaches are rising as well?"
## [1727] "Then at the 8:56 mark Joe brings up the recent (some would call absurd) claim made that Antarctic sea ice is expanding to record high levels because of global warming. (With that kind of logic one could hypothesize that the snowball earth episodes occurred when the earth was a hot house). Bastardi:"
## [1728] "It has been said many times that computer models can explain the global temperature for the last 30 years the period of the recent global warming spell. Even if that was true some years ago it is no longer. The fact that the pause is unexplained means that the last 30 years are not reproducible in a way that is satisfactory."
## [1729] "Extreme weather? The highest wind speed recorded at a low level site in England was 118mph, set in 1979 in Cornwall. Highest 24 hour rainfall? 279mm in Dorset, 1955. Highest 60 minute rainfall? 92mm, Berkshire in 1901. (The only record set in the last decade was the 2-day record for rainfall at Seathwaite.)"
## [1730] "Empirical evidence does not lend much support to the notion that climate is headed precipitately toward more extreme heat and drought. The drought of 1999 covered a smaller area than the 1988 drought, when the Mississippi almost dried up. And 1988 was a temporary inconvenience as compared with repeated droughts during the 1930s Dust Bowl that caused an exodus from the prairies, as chronicled in Steinbecks Grapes of Wrath.."
## [1731] "1962 was the harshest winter on record in the UK, and was due to lack of CO2 and global cooling. A lot of parallels are being made for this winter, with some speculating that it may be as severe as the 1962 event."
## [1732] "In 2008, Lewis Pugh tried to kayak to the North Pole from Spitzbergen. He made it about two miles before giving up, after he discovered that the ice-free North Pole was just NSIDC propaganda."
## [1733] "So far this year there have been 1,651 record daily minimum temperatures recorded at all 862 US HCN stations continuously active since 1930, compared to 1,394 record maximums."
## [1734] "A new article in the Economist responds to the recent article in The New Republic , discussing the policy implications of the pause."
## [1735] "Its another unusually cold winter striking the continent. Last year, hundreds froze to death. The same occurred in the winter of 2010."
## [1736] "Though the complex models say there is 0.6 C manmade warming in the pipeline even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases, the simple model confirmed by almost two decades without any significant global warming shows there is no committed but unrealized manmade warming still to come."
## [1737] "Hundreds of articles this week in the press about the melting Arctic, where sea ice has melted from 9.5 million km^2 up to 10.5 million km^2 since the start of the year."
## [1738] "We should have listened. Bering Sea ice has been normal or above normal, and at record levels for the last two years."
## [1739] "There is evidence of clustering, with a relative absence of extreme wet months before 1900, and again in the 1970s. But there is no evidence of anything unusual occurring in recent years, nor that extreme wet months are becoming more common or extreme."
## [1740] "It is good news that the authors recognise that there has been no global temperature increase since 1998. Even after the standstill appears time and again in peer-reviewed scientific studies, many commentators still deny its reality. We live in the warmest decade since thermometer records began about 150 years ago, but it hasnt gotten any warmer for at least a decade."
## [1741] "Reductions in summer heat are even more dramatic. Hot summer days were much more common prior to 1960."
## [1742] "The Philadelphia sea level graph shows no acceleration since 1900, destroying their own claim that sea level rise rates have doubled since 1992. And anyone with an IQ higher than a turnip would recognize that sea level cant rise long term at different rates in different places. The steady Northeast US trend is due to subsidence caused byglacial rebound in Canada. As Canada rises, the Northeast US sinks like a teeter totter."
## [1743] "The map below is the 1971 National Geographic ice map which is nearly identical to the current state of the Arctic."
## [1744] "Marvel goes on to assert that the pause in warming can be explained by a massive increase in ocean heat content. Well, all right, I suppose this is a plausible theory. But it is also a very new oneand only one of 52 different theories offered to explain the hiatus."
## [1745] "Maybe God has got a sense of humour? says Lyn. Climate change investigators stuck in ice in Antarctica in High Summer !! Then the Chinese ice-breaker rescuing them also gets stuck in ice !!?"
## [1746] "4:07 when the snow is snowing everywhere to us. It's time for the annual deja vu. It was snowing in Pilsen. Yesterday and today. The volume was negligible in front of my windows. But friends and family members in other parts of Pilsen (and especially elsewhere in Central Europe) reported intense snow. The temperature stays near 0 ??C, the freezing point."
## [1747] "Andrew J. Dowdy Tropical cyclone (TC) observations are used to examine changes in the TC climatology of the Australian region. The ability to investigate long-term changes in TC numbers improves when the ElNio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is considered. Removing variability in TC numbers associated with ENSO shows a significant decreasing trend in TC numbers at the 9398% confidence level. Additionally, there is some indication of a temporal change in the relationship between ENSO and TC numbers, with ENSO accounting for about 3550% of the variance in TC numbers during the first half of the study period, but only 10% during the second half."
## [1748] "The authors bring up the concept of missing heat used in efforts to explain the failure of the globe to warm. Following a suggestion of Hans von Starch, they assert the heat was not missing, because it did not exist. They point out that the difference in surface temperatures from 1998 to 2012 northern Eurasia and from those in 1980 to 1997. The authors suggest that the strong decline in temperatures is the result of declining ultraviolet (UV) radiation from the sun, which can vary by 10%. UV radiation is unlike the full spectrum of solar radiation (mostly visible light) which varies little. See link under Science: Is the Sun Rising? and the study by Ermolli et al. that is linked therein."
## [1749] "Hence, it is necessary for climatologists like Pederson to assert, at least to the public, that warming has occurred after 1998 and, more recently, that it is actually \"accelerating.\" Without warming in the 21st century, \"global warming\" hasn't reached the crucial 30-year milestone. But if for Pederson there is no statistically significant cooling over the past decade, there was also no statistically significant warming in the late 20th century, either. Warmists like Pederson cannot admit this fact because it utterly destroys their case."
## [1750] "Climatologist: ???There has been a downward trend in strong (F3) to violent (F5) tornadoes in U.S. since 1950s?? ??? ???Warming causes fewer strong tornadoes, not more??"
## [1751] "The calendar may say it's spring, but a major winter-like snow storm is wreaking havoc on the lives of Americans from the Rockies to the Upper Plains. Thirteen states are either under a storm watch or warning."
## [1752] "England has just experienced its coldest Spring since 1891 , according to the Central England Temperature Series. Capetown recorded it??s earliest June snowfall in years ."
## [1753] "Eighty years ago this summer, more than 80% of the US was experiencing drought, and about half the country was in extreme drought."
## [1754] "The worlds major scientific journals agree that since 2001 the global average temperature has been constant. We live in a warm decade and the world is reacting to that warmth but, contrary to predictions, the world isnt getting any warmer at the moment, Dr David Whitehouse, the GWPFsscience editor, said."
## [1755] "Inconvenient weather fact: Frequency of violent tornadoes like the one in Oklahoma has been declining, not increasing"
## [1756] "The election of Barack Obama has not brought comfort and confidence to the ranks of climate campaigners. To the contrary, there is an obvious sense of panic in the rhetoric of climate campaigners right now. This panic arises not simply from the fact that the global economic crisis is derailing expensive climate action plans, but from the deeper problem that the scientific case for catastrophic global warming is slowly unraveling. After two decades of steadily increasing global temperatures from the late 1970s to the late-1990swhich on the surface seemed to validate the basic claim of the global warming theorythere has been no warming for the last decade. This was unexpected and is starting to falsify the predictions of nearly every computer climate model. The climate campaigners are engaged in complicated contortions to explain away this inconvenient truth, but a few more years of flat or slightly declining global temperatures and the entire issue might turn turtle."
## [1757] "I assume he is referring to the fact that Arctic ice extent is the highest at the end of July since 2006."
## [1758] "Meanwhile, here in the actual world, Arctic sea ice continues to track 2006 the year with the highest summer minimum of the past decade."
## [1759] "In the year 1900, the entire city of Galveston,Texaswasdestroyedby a hurricane, which killed nearly 10,000 people."
## [1760] "More detail on the Southern Hemisphere's exceptionally cold winter"
## [1761] "The southeastern province of Hakkari was also struck by cold weather, with snow reaching a depth of 20 centimeters and 15 village roads closed due to heavy snowfall."
## [1762] "Morano: 'If you look at time scales of 50-100 years for (extreme weather).First off, on hurricanes we are at historic record lows, the longest we have gone without a majorhurricanestrike, category 3 or larger -- 9 years now -- the period longest since 1900.Big Tornadoes are down. Floods,droughts, all of these factors are either on no trends or declining trends."
## [1763] "The heat wave, while largely predictable on short, weather-driven timescales, appears not to be the product of long-term climate changes. Instead, as discussed by Dole et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06702, doi:10.1029/2010GL046582, 2011. See Highlight 4, above), the heat wave falls within the realm of natural variability."
## [1764] "The pause in warming may have been affected by volcanic eruptions that increased aerosols and particulate that increased upper atmospheric reflectance. AGW will continue after this. Is this an explanation for a pause that many warmists deny is happening? The pause may be caused in part by 17 small volcanic eruptions that occurred since 1999. Experts from Lawrence Livermore Labs said this want taken into account when predictions were made. I wonder what else was overlooked when predictions were made."
## [1765] "In his RMS article , Kevin Trenberth also conveniently overlooked the fact that the discussions about the warming hiatus are now for a time period of about 16 years, not 10 yearsever since David Roses DailyMail article titled Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released and here is the chart to prove it . In my response to Trenberths article , I updated David Roses graph , noting that surface temperatures in April 2013 were basically the same as they were in June 1997. Well use June 1997 as the start month for the running 16-year trends. The period is now 192-months long. The following graph is similar to the one above, except that its presenting running trends for 192-month periods."
## [1766] "It was 58 degrees today in Pecos, Texas. On this date in 1972 (peak year of the ice age scare) it was 100 degrees."
## [1767] "Bombshell conclusion new peer reviewed analysis: worldwide-temperature increase has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100years"
## [1768] "According to the British Met Office , the 2007 Arctic ice-melt was an anomaly unrelated to climate change. The article says, Modeling of Arctic sea ice by the Met Office Hadley Centre climate model shows that ice invariably recovers from extreme events, and that the long-term trend of reduction is robustwith the first ice-free summer expected to occur between 2060 and 2080. It is unlikely that the Arctic will experience ice-free summers by 2020."
## [1769] "There is no evidence, Mr Miliband, Lord Stern and others, that our floods and storms are related to climate change"
## [1770] "To change the politics of the day, scientific evidence is not enough. Graphs and statistics are pointless; the lack of warming, or any other predicted calamity is insufficient."
## [1771] "NASA says carbon emissions could cause 30+ year megadroughts. They also said that the California drought was part of natural cycles. What about all the noise we heard about the current drought caused by climate change? From NASA, NASA Study Finds Carbon Emissions Could Dramatically Increase Risk of U.S. Megadroughts"
## [1772] "The results of this study confirm the results of another paper we have reviewed, demonstrating that the Little Ice Age was widespread and significant in this region of the world (see The Little Ice Age in the Caribbean ). New information in this study also refutes the climate alarmist claim that warmer temperatures produce more extreme weather. Quite to the contrary, the results of this study demonstrate that precipitation was more variable during the cold period of the Little Ice Age than it was both before or afterwards."
## [1773] "He also gave you some extremely misleading information. While it is true that Greenland temperatures rose 4C from 1990 to 2006, the long term trend since the 1920s is downwards, as well as the short term trend since 2006. He cherry picked the twenty year period very carefully, as twenty years ago was the coldest period inGreenlandshistory. Had he picked almost any other start date, there would be no warming trend."
## [1774] "According to a new paper in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, ???The global mean sea level for the period January 1900 to December 2006 is estimated to rise at a rate of 1.56 0.25 mm/yr which is reasonably consistent with earlier estimates, but we do not find significant acceleration.?? As noted by The Hockey Shtick , the 1.56 mm/yr non-accelerating rate of sea level rise would result in sea levels 6 inches higher than the present in 100 years."
## [1775] "This indicates that claim 5 is clearly wrong . While sea level will rise a small amount, and has so since the start of the Holocene period, the rise is now only 10 to 15 cm per century, and is not significantly related to the recent recovery from the little ice age, including the present period of warming."
## [1776] "During the week of July 8 through July 14, 1913, high temperatures averaged 129 degrees at Greenland Ranch, California. On July 10 the temperature reached 134 degrees."
## [1777] "Most recent summers have had temperatures below normal north of 80N, and the water in that region is getting colder. This has combined with a large reduction in ice transport through the Fram Strait in recent years."
## [1778] "On the contrary, the opposite seems to be the case, with the highest summer temperatures in recent years well below those recorded in the first half of the 20thC, and even before."
## [1779] "The recent strong La Nia (cool, wet) and high SOI conditions contributing to flooding in Australia has shown Nicholls statistical analysis is correct. Despite comments by prominent AGW scientists like David Karoly, Ian Lowe and Tim Flannery these are entirely natural conditions; the flood records for Queensland show that in the past, before AGW began, there were bigger and regular floods. As Professor Stewart Franks notes natural variability is creating the weather not AGW."
## [1780] "The derived 20 year trend in sea ice extent from the monthly deviations is 11.18 4.19 x 10 3 km 2 yr -1 or 0.98 0.37% (decade) -1 for the entire Antarctic sea ice cover, which is significantly positive."
## [1781] "Next Mr Weyler tells us Precipitation has increased in eastern Americas, northern Europe, and Asia. So what? Natural variability will cause more rainfall in some places and less in others. Overall, as even the IPCC admits both in its 2012 report on extreme weather and in its 2013 Fifth Assessment Report, there is no evidence yet that precipitation patterns or quantities are being affected by global warming which is not really a surprise given that there has hardly been any. We are not told that the worlds oldest national annual rainfall record, the Met Offices England and Wales series, shows that the annual rainfall trend has increased by just 2 inches in a quarter of a millennium, which is well within natural variability:"
## [1782] "After reviewing the scientific literature the reports concludes that the standstill is an empirical fact and a reality that challenges current climate models. During the time that the Earths global temperature has remained static the atmospheric composition of carbon dioxide has increased from 370 to 390 ppm."
## [1783] "North Pole temperatures in 2013 have fallen below freezing way in advance of where they normally do this year. This is the coldest ever recorded by the Danish Meteorological Institute since they started looking at this in the late 1950s."
## [1784] "Antarctica set a new record for ice extent in 2014, and continues to set records for how much ice covers the oceans surrounding this southern hemisphere continent as 2015 progresses."
## [1785] "Can anybody see any 100 year events in the last 5 years? Or any increase in extreme rainfall patterns? Good, because I cant either."
## [1786] "In fact, the temperature of planet today is almost the same as it was when satellites first started measuring it in 1979. No one under the age of 32 has experienced global warming. Some of us predate that and remember the heavy frosts of the nineteen seventies. Those frosts are returning, and worse. Solar activity is weakening, and will remain weak for another 22 years."
## [1787] "All of this snow has propelled southeast Michigan into the top of the seasonal snowfall records. ???In fact, this winter puts 6 of the last 14 years into the top 20 snowiest winters on record .??"
## [1788] "This year is set to be the coolest since 2000, according to a preliminary estimate of global average temperature that is due to be released next week by the Met Office. The global average for 2008 should come in close to 14.3C, which is 0.14C below the average temperature for 2001-07."
## [1789] "For summer months, the century scale trend is slightly down. But there is still no large century scale trend in drought."
## [1790] "Global Warming Not Happening Global Cooling Is Real And Now"
## [1791] "We are headed towards a Little Ice Age ?? and the current climate propaganda is pointing us in the wrong direction."
## [1792] "The latest satellite data on Arctic sea ice extent suggests that there is now a normal amount of sea ice in the Arctic normal is defined as about average for the period 1979 2007."
## [1793] "In the Year of our Lord Two Thousand and Twenty, more than two decades will have elapsed without so much as a suspicion of warmer weather throughout the Empire."
## [1794] "A prior paper also published by lead author Justin Sheffield examined the period from 1950-2000 and found, \" Globally, the mid-1950s showed the highest drought activity and the mid-1970s to mid-1980s the lowest activity.\""
## [1795] "For the past 5 years (60 months), there is a statistically significant global cooling in all datasets."
## [1796] "Plus, according to Florida State University??s Ryan Maue, Accumulated Cyclone Energy has hit a 30 year low . The Global Warming linkage simply isn??t there."
## [1797] "As of this writing (January 9), it looks like the coldest temperatures in the Lower 48 are yet to come, as the coldest airmass over northwest Canada finds its way down into the central and eastern U.S. starting around next Wednesday (January 14) or so. Gee, where is global warming when you really need it?"
## [1798] "The last sentence is one of the best quotes Ive found on global warming from a serious site. Why? you ask. Because the entire melting of the last 3 decades indicates the total global sea ice loss is only .. 4%."
## [1799] "However, things get worse for the global warming idea. Problem is that 2010 in the very end of the shown period is in fact a ratherwarmEl Nino year. And still, the trends 2002-2010are just?? flat. Even now after the warm 2010. As if the global warming idea just barely holds on in the months just after a warm 2010."
## [1800] "Over the past 25 years, there has been no net change in Northern Hemisphere snow cover. The amount of snow in autumn and winter has increased, while spring and summer snow cover has decreased. Note that there has been a large increase in peak snow cover, but no change in the minimum."
## [1801] "As can be seen from the aerial video above, shot right after the tornado moved through just south of Mayflower, Arkansas, on Sunday evening, the devastation was wide spread (video credit: Brian Emfinger). As tragic as this event was, and as selfless and heroic as the efforts of Arkansans to help their fellow citizens has been, there are still a number of lowlifes who cannot help but use this disaster to further their own agenda. I am, of course, referring to the human scum who waited less than a day to proclaim global warming as the cause of this tragedy. Let me set the record straight: Tornadoes have not increased in frequency, intensity or normalized damage"
## [1802] "Laccadives Islands (India): \"the locals are quite aware of the fact that sea level is not at all in a rising mode today, rather that new land has been added, leaving previous shore to become overgrown and invaded by terrestrial plant climbers (just as in the Maldives).\""
## [1803] "His explanation doesnt work. Last winter showed the same weather pattern yet sea ice extent was the highest in years and had the latest peak on record."
## [1804] "Similarly, pollen and charcoal evidence recorded two other large droughts: one that occurred some 5,000 to 5,500 years ago and another that occurred around 3,000 years ago."
## [1805] "In Senate testimony during the summer of 1988, a NASA scientist testified that his GISS climate model's predicted temperatures will accelerate to much higher levels if the world's governments did nothing about reducing CO2 emissions. In reality, as the temperature data above shows, actual temperatures in 2009 were about the same as in 1988, some twenty years later."
## [1806] "This is not the first record-breaking cold snap in recent years. North America hit record lows in 2012 along with record snow falls , and record blizzards and ice storms in 2011 . Before that, 2010 saw record low freezes as well.In fact, according to the UN own data, the planet has been in a global cooling cycle for the last 16 years."
## [1807] "Johannessen and colleagues analysed satellite data on the Greenland Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2003. They found an increase of 6.4 0.2 centimetres per year in the vast interior areas above 1500 metres, in contrast to previous reports of high-elevation balance. Below 1500 metres, the elevation-change rate is -2.0 0.9 cm/year."
## [1808] "Mrner and Parker conclude that the Fremantle tide gauge is likely to include a local subsidence factor of about 1.4 mm/year so there is not much left for sea level rise. They claim virtually stable conditions over the last 60 years and full stability over the last 14 years, implying there are no traces of any present day acceleration."
## [1809] "According to Donohue and his colleagues, climbing levels of CO2 in the air correlated with an 11 per cent increase in foliage cover from 1982 to 2010 across arid areas in Australia, North America, the Middle East and Africa."
## [1810] "Quoting the five Australian researchers, \"across all treatments there was a highly significant effect of sperm density, but no significant effect of temperature or interaction between factors.\" In fact, they state that \"low pH did not reduce the percentage of fertilization even at the lowest sperm densities used, and increased temperature did not enhance fertilization at any sperm density.\" In addition, they remark that \"a number of ecotoxicology and climate change studies, where pH was manipulated with CO 2 gas, show that sea urchin fertilization is robust to a broad pH range with impairment only at extreme levels well below projections for ocean acidification by 2100 (pH 7.1-7.4, 2,000-10,000 ppm CO 2 ),\" citing the work of Bay et al . (1993), Carr et al . (2006), and Kurihara and Shirayama (2004). What it means"
## [1811] "As the CO 2 content of the air continues to rise, tropical rainforests will likely increase their photosynthetic capacity. This phenomenon may apply a significant \"biological brake\" on the rising CO 2 content of the atmosphere, as tropical rainforests are among the most productive ecosystems on earth, and a large stimulation of their photosynthetic capacity should result in the removal of tremendous amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. Reviewed 15 October 1998"
## [1812] "As the CO 2 content of the air rises, it is likely that mango biodiversity will be maintained, as there were no obvious differences in the responses of these two ecotypes to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment. In addition, these cultivars will likely increase their overall size, biomass, and yield as more and more CO 2 enters the air from mankind's activities. Although the instantaneous doubling of the atmospheric CO 2 content in this experiment reduced concentrations of leaf mineral elements, the authors stated that \"given the slow rate at which global atmospheric CO 2 concentration is increasing, it is possible that plants will adapt to elevated ambient CO 2 concentrations over time with respect to mineral nutrition,\" as did sour orange trees after 85 months of exposure to elevated CO 2 (Penuelas et al ., 1997). Reference"
## [1813] "Those reefs have actually been able to take advantage of the warmer conditions, said Janice Lough, a senior AIMS research scientist and one of the studys authors."
## [1814] "The very real positive externality of inadvertent atmospheric CO2 enrichment must be considered in all studies examining the SCC; and its observationally-deduced effects must be given premier weighting over the speculative negative externalities presumed to occur in computer model projections of global warming. Until that time, little if any weight should be placed on current SCC calculations."
## [1815] "Noting that their results \"provide a valid mechanism for the conclusion of Berry and Roderick (2002) that evergreen vegetation has increased across Australia over the past 200 years as a result of CO2 enrichment,\" they conclude that \" woody thickening in Australia and probably globally can be explained by the changes in landscape GPP and soil moisture balance arising principally from the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration .\""
## [1816] "The paper adds to several others invalidating the vast prior literature on the effects of \"acidification\" as overblown due to biased, artificial laboratory conditions that don't correctly simulate the buffering effects of a natural environment."
## [1817] "The observed response equates to an approximate 480% increase in calcification rate in response to a 9C increase in water temperature or to a 160% increase in calcification rate in response to a 3C increase in temperature, the latter of which temperature increases is somewhere in the low to midrange of global warming that climate alarmists claim will result from a 300 ppm increase in the air's CO 2 concentration.?? As noted in our Editorial of 26 Jan 2005 , this positive effect of rising temperature far outweighs the negative effect of rising CO 2 concentrations on calcification in corals. Reviewed 9 February 2005"
## [1818] "This is good news for two reasons. First, warmer temperatures increase phytoplankton bioactivity (protein synthesis) all over the globe. Mark 1 Eyeball observations of FLL seasonal reef visibility are true everywhere. It is in the phytoplankton genes. That means more oxygen, more marine food chain food, and more carbon sequestration if waters warm. Second, temperature up-regulated gene expression shifts phytoplankton metabolic pathways away from phosphorus and toward nitrogen. This is a marvelous example of evolutionary adaptation. Phosphorus is a growth-limiting factor in most ocean regions, provided primarily by upwelling deep water. A shift toward N-limitation with more bioactivity avoids the phosphorus growth constraint. Oceans have their own nitrogen fixation mechanisms (e.g. cyanobacteria like Trichodesmium ) that would also get more productive. Less phosphorus consumed by phytoplankton means more is available to N-fixing cyanobacteria. ,"
## [1819] "I said I dont want you to put polar bears on the Endangered Species list."
## [1820] "Finally, we looked at a recent article from the scientific journal entitled Coral Reefs written by ten scientists from French Polynesia, France, Florida, and California. Apparently, doing work on the reefs of Moorea (an island in French Polynesia) attracts a crowd? Adjeroud et al. studied the Tiahura Outer Reef Sector (TORS) in Moorea from 1991-2006 (sign us up for this duty) and they noted that Coral assemblages in Moorea, French Polynesia, have been impacted by multiple disturbances (one cyclone and four bleaching events between 1991 and 2006). Their conclusions include the statement In addition, our results reveal that corals can recover rapidly following a dramatic decline. Such decadal-scale recovery of coral cover has been documented at some locations, but our results are novel in demonstrating rapid recovery against a backdrop of ongoing, high frequency, and large-scale disturbances."
## [1821] "CO2 is not a pollutant. When the Dinosaurs roamed, the CO2 content was 6 to 9 times current and the planet was green from pole to pole; almost no deserts. If we doubled the atmospheric content of CO2, young pine trees would grow at twice the rate and nearly every crop yield would go up 30 to 40%. We, the animals and all land plant life would be healthier if CO2 content were to increase."
## [1822] "Growth rates in the long-term experiment (LTE) did not follow the negative trend with increasing p CO2 observed in the short-term incubation. Instead, growth rate, which was comparable to that of the control treatment in the short-term experiment, stayed high at elevated CO2 levels Although not statistically signicant, a linear regression analysis reveals an increasing trend of coral growth with rising p CO2 concentration . *"
## [1823] "The significance of these findings with respect to the ongoing rise in the air's CO 2 content is linked to the relationship that exists between atmospheric CO 2 enrichment and AMF growth and development. As may be seen by perusing the materials that are identified when searching for arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi on our website's search feature (home page upper right-hand corner), as the air's CO 2 content rises, it will likely impact crop-fungal interactions by increasing the percent of the crop's root system colonized by either mycorrhizal fungal hyphae or arbuscular structures, thereby promoting the positive phenomena documented by Rinaudo et al ."
## [1824] "Elevated CO 2 suppressed foliar injury caused by elevated O 3 , especially in some of the more O 3 -sensitive cultivars used in this study. In addition, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment to 700 ppm almost completely protected such cultivars from the negative effects of elevated O 3 on seed yield. At ambient CO 2 concentrations, for example, elevated O 3 reduced seed yield by 48% in an O 3 -sensitive cultivar. However, at an atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 700 ppm, yield reductions in this same O 3 -susceptible variety were only 8%. Thus, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment had a strong ameliorating effect on the negative influences of elevated O 3 on growth and yield of O 3 -susceptable winter wheat cultivars."
## [1825] "Positive cloud feedback amplifies global warming in all the climate models now used by the IPCC to forecast global warming. But if cloud feedback is sufficiently negative, then manmade global warming becomes a non-issue."
## [1826] "Dugongs congregate where there are seagrass meadows and there is no evidence that seagrass meadows are generally in decline around the Australian coastline."
## [1827] "The results obtained by Menendez et al . \"confirm,\" in their words, \"that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970-82,\" as our thinking has suggested it should. However, some of the range shifts responsible for the increase in species richness take more time to occur than those of other species; and they say their results imply that \"it may be decades or centuries before the species richness and composition of biological communities adjusts to the current climate.\" Reviewed 11 October 2006"
## [1828] "Rainwater is truly acid, at a pH of 5.4 (7 being neutral). The oceans are alkaline, at a mean pH of 7.9. Yet the corals do not curl up and die when rainwater hits them. They thrive."
## [1829] "Synopsis: Oceans provide a negative feedback (automatic global air conditioning) to compensate for higher temperatures. Source here . \"Higher temperatures are known to increase emissions of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) from the worlds oceans, which increases the albedo of marine stratus clouds, which has a cooling effect.\""
## [1830] "Photosynthesis and canopy greenness are maintained for longer in elevated CO2. This is because a CO2 rich atmosphere allows the tree to generate carbon rich compounds that are known to prolong the life of leaves. These compounds may have a positive effect for carbon balance and stress tolerance but may also have a negative effect on the control of dormancy."
## [1831] "Global warming was also supposed to be killing frogs. But again, new studies indicate that the frogs are being killed by a natural pathogen, the chytrid fungus, and that its spread has been accelerated by the natural weather pattern known as El Nio, and not by some anomalous global warming."
## [1832] "\"In the last 80 years, as CO2 emissions have most rapidly escalated, the annual rate of climate-related deaths worldwide fell by an incredible rate of 98%. That means the incidence of death from climate is 50 times lower than it was 80 years ago.\""
## [1833] "But the researchers were surprised when they entered temperatures and other data from the decade 2000-2010 into the model; climate sensitivity was greatly reduced to a mere 1.9C."
## [1834] "When Waxman refers to a tipping point, he means that a positive feedback cycle, much like nuclear fission, is created causing temperatures to accelerate rapidly. As an aside, such runaway positive feedback processes are rare among long-term stable natural systems, as at some point, given 5 billion years of history, they should have already run away by now. Why temperatures would reach a tipping point now when they did not in millennia past when both global temperature and CO2 levels were much higher remains unexplained by Mr. Waxman and other tipping point advocates."
## [1835] "After one year of treatment exposure, there were no significant effects of the extra 200 ppm of CO 2 or ozone on apparent tree volume. After two and three years, however, elevated CO 2 increased apparent tree volume by 22 and 28%, respectively, while elevated ozone reduced it by 26% in each of those years. Although elevated CO 2 did not completely alleviate the negative affects of ozone on apparent tree volume, CO 2 -enriched trees that were simultaneously exposed to elevated ozone concentrations exhibited apparent volumes that were still 6 and 19% greater than volumes displayed by trees subjected to ambient CO 2 and elevated ozone concentrations in the second and third years of the study, respectively. What it means"
## [1836] "Experiments with Zebra Fish show that if their embryos develop in warmer water, they not only are able to swim faster but they cope better in both warmer and colder water. (How catastrophic can that be, I ask you?)"
## [1837] "Averaged across the entire experiment, elevated CO 2 significantly increased rates of net photosynthesis in both mangrove species, but only when grown at the lower salinity level. Interestingly, the percentage CO 2 -induced increase in photosynthesis was greater for R. stylosa , than it was for R. apiculata , which generally is faster growing than R. stylosa . Although elevated CO 2 did not significantly affect the relative growth rate of either species, the average relative growth rates of both species increased with atmospheric CO 2 enrichment in the lower salt environment; and true to its characterization, R. apiculata displayed a greater CO 2 -induced growth stimulation than did R. stylosa , particularly at the lower relative humidity. What it means"
## [1838] "A new study shows that flying squirrels have been adapting to recent warming since the 1990s by both moving and hybridizing. C.J. Garroway and his research team trapped more than 1600 of the flying squirrels in Ontario and Pennsylvania between 2002 and 2004. The flying squirrels' DNA shows the southern G. volans flying squirrels are increasingly mating with the northern G. sabrinus flying squirrels. The researchers say this is the \"first report of hybrid zone formation following a range expansion induced by contemporary climate change.\""
## [1839] "Tourists continue to flock to a Great Barrier Reef that (outside of very local resort areas) remains in the same excellent natural health that Captain James Cook observed in 1770."
## [1840] "Why is this important? Because, by an equation called the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, as the space occupied by the atmosphere warms it is also capable of carrying near-exponentially more water vapor. Superficially, therefore, considerable amplification of the original warming might be expected. In practice, however, as you rightly point out, the likelihood is that more water vapor in the atmosphere will lead to the formation of more clouds. And it is here that the UN's analysis goes completely astray. For it makes no allowance for the additional cloud-albedo effect that these clouds generated by the water-vapor feedback will create. This leads to a catastrophic overvaluation by the IPCC of the water-vapor feedback; and, though this is partly compensated for by the treatment of all cloud albedo as a forcing, it creates an overstatement of the final warming effect of adding greenhouse gases such as CO2 to the atmosphere after all feedbacks have been taken into account."
## [1841] "\"I've long thought that man-made carbon-dioxide emissions will raise global temperatures, but that this effect will not be amplified much by feedbacks from extra water vapor and clouds, so the world will probably be only a bit more than one degree Celsius warmer in 2100 than today.\""
## [1842] "A recent paper in the journal Nature concluded that species extinction caused by habitat loss is happening less than half as fast as usually estimated. The normal method for calculating rates of extinction assumes that doomed species merely cling temporarily to a shrunken patch of habitat, on their way to disappearing (an idea called \"extinction debt\"). Apparently, this isn't the case: Although a larger patch of habitat has more species in it, shrinking a patch does not lead to a proportional rate of species loss."
## [1843] "Suddenly we are also seeingstudies showing that warming wont be so bad after all, and that CO2 climate sensitivity is much lower than first thought. The policy-making pressure coming from the threat of climate change is disappearing rapidly."
## [1844] "So from a global perspective, it doesnt seem like the planets plant life is responding negatively to climate change. Are some species suffering? Undoubtedly. But, as is also the case, many others are flourishing. And in net, the change in plant growth since the early 1980s is positive."
## [1845] "The photosynthetic capacities of all six species were limited by the current low value of the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration. In addition, the stomatal conductances of all species declined with increasing CO 2 , so that their water use efficiencies all rose as the air's CO 2 content climbed. What it means"
## [1846] "Krull et al . conclude their paper by saying their findings \"stress the importance of viewing soils as dynamic systems and indicating the potential for soil organic carbon sequestration in grazed semi-arid woodlands,\" which land use represents a form of agroforestry whose virtues have recently been touted by Mutuo et al . (2005) .?? Also, their findings suggest the operation of an important negative feedback phenomenon that has the potential to slow the rate-of-rise of the air's CO 2 content, wherein the ongoing enrichment of the air with CO 2 from the burning of fossil fuels enables woody species to more readily colonize less productive grasslands and thereby extract greater amounts of CO 2 from the atmosphere, which tends to retard atmospheric CO 2 's upward concentration trend while simultaneously providing many benefits to the soil and the plants that grow upon it. References"
## [1847] "In the words of Schubert and Jahren, \"if the below-ground biomass enhancement that we have quantified for R. sativus represents a generalized root-crop response that can be extrapolated to agricultural systems, below-ground fertilization under very high CO 2 levels could dramatically augment crop production in some of the poorest nations of the world.\" And \"needless to say,\" as they continue, \"a doubling or tripling of below-ground crop tissue due to CO 2 fertilization would be welcome on both a nutritional and economic basis.\" References"
## [1848] "Another powerful negative-feedback mechanism which acts to reduce the effects of global warming has been identified, as scientists say that rising temperatures cause plants to emit higher levels of planet-cooling aerosols."
## [1849] "What I read is that by analyzing the large variance portions of SST with similar methods that look at all Sea Surface Temperatures, they found a different result supporting a very low climate sensitivity to CO2 through observation. It turned out that the tropics are definitely the region of interest in models vs observation."
## [1850] "In chapters 14 and 15 he discusses photogenic polar bears that are the poster children of the media. Steele writes that polar bears arent going extinct and there never was any warming of their habitats. Evidence is shown by Steele that the local food supply benefits from less ice."
## [1851] "I thought this post on clouds and climate modeling below from Steve McIntyre??s Climate Audi t was interesting, because it highlights the dreaded ???negative feedbacks?? that many climate modelers say don??t exist. Dr. Richard Lindzen highlighted the importance of negative feedback in a recent WUWT post ."
## [1852] "???There is surely some limit to how long increasing carbon dioxide can continue to promote plant growth that absorbs carbon dioxide,?? Saleska said. ???Carbon dioxide is food for plants, and putting more food out there stimulates them to ???eat?? more. However, just like humans, eventually they get full and putting more food out doesn??t stimulate more eating.??"
## [1853] "The eight researchers report that the 1.5??C increase in temperature significantly advanced crop phenophases, leading to a reduction in the length of the entire growth period of about ten days, with the result that grain yields rose due to \"the mitigation of low temperature limitation during the pre-anthesis phase and to the avoidance of hot-dry stress during the post-anthesis phase.\" In addition, they indicate that the areas of flag leaves and total green leaves at anthesis, as well as the 1000-grain weight of the plants, were 36.0, 19.2 and 5.9% higher in the warmed plots than in the unaltered control, respectively. And the net effect of these several warmth-induced changes was a mean grain yield increase of 16.3%."
## [1854] "The longer growing season also has a profound impact on forests. Forests are, in effect, the worlds air filters. Green leaves on trees turn carbon dioxide a greenhouse gas that traps heat in our atmosphere into oxygen. Carbon dioxide also helps trees grow since they use energy from the sun to convert the gas into plant matter. A longer growing season could change quickly forests grow and increase the amount of carbon dioxide taken out of the atmosphere."
## [1855] "A new paper by Stephen Schwartz of the Brookhaven National Laboratory says that the Earth is not as sensitive to carbon dioxide as had previously been thought."
## [1856] "Turns out a little extra carbon dioxide in the air will add to your experience as the extra CO2 boosts productivity of those perfect-with-anything pineapples from our Pacific paradise."
## [1857] "In summing things up, Pansch et al . write that \"given their present wide tolerance and the possibility to adapt to shifting environmental conditions over many generations, barnacles ( A. improvisus ) from the Western Baltic Sea might be able to overcome OA as predicted by the end of this century.\" And, \"supporting this,\" they note that Parker et al . (2011) have shown \"selectively bred lines of the estuarine oyster Saccostrea glomerata to be more resilient to OA than wild populations.\" Consequently, as in so many other cases of knee-jerk predictions of impending CO 2 -induced catastrophe, both global warming and ocean acidification appear not to be the quite the demons they have been made out to be within another coastal marine-life setting."
## [1858] "BTW, this means polar bears survived this extreme ice shrinkage in the past and will do so again."
## [1859] "Once again, we have another example of a marine organism that will likely benefit from so-called ocean acidification, even in the face of an important resource limitation??"
## [1860] "\"Despite the multiple influences on the reef sites over the study period, the size classes of the corals studied showed resilience to change. We suspected this all along the coral reefs have been around for 100s of millions of years! He states What is apparent from this study is that despite the chronic and acute disturbances between 2002 and 2008, demographic studies indicate good levels of coral resilience on the fringing reefs around Discovery Bay in Jamaica. Crabbe warns that Unfortunately, previously successful efforts to engage the local fisherman in controlling catches around Discovery Bay have not been maintained, and it may be that the development of a Discovery Bay Marine Park is the only solution. We get the message dont blame global warming, blame the local fishermen!\""
## [1861] "Experiments with Zebra Fish show that if their embryo??s develop in warmer water, they not only are able to swim faster but they cope better in both warmer and colder water. (How catastrophic can that be, I ask you?)"
## [1862] "In a recent experiment in the Mediterranean, reported in Nature Climate Change, corals and mollusks were transplanted to lower pH sites, where they proved ???able to calcify and grow at even faster than normal rates when exposed to the high levels projected for the next 300 years.?? In any case, freshwater mussels thrive in Scottish rivers, where the pH is as low as five."
## [1863] "Indeed, the US Fish & Wildlife Service reported earlier this year that \"the number of polar bears observed in 2012 was high relative to similar surveys conducted over the past decade.\""
## [1864] "In addition to the fact that \"production of Bacillus thuringiensis crystal endotoxin proteins in a crop plant limits specific herbivorous insect attack without the need for chemical treatments,\" to quote the seven scientists, \"elevated CO 2 conditions could modify herbivore-induced defenses at the vegetative stage, and enhance indirect defense in the future.\" And, of course, the increasing CO 2 content of the air would help to thwart the growth-reducing effects of ozone pollution at one and the same time. Reviewed 11 February 2009"
## [1865] "For example, northern Arizona where I live has a dry season and a wet season. In June when the humidity is very low the temperature is very high. In July when the Monsoons come the humidity goes up sharply. Not only does this result in a marked drop in daily mean temperatures, it also causes the countryside to turn greena welcome climate change indeed!"
## [1866] "Although the net effect of the increase in the air's CO 2 content (which tended to reduce plant water loss) and the increase in the air's dryness (which tended to enhance plant water loss) resulted in no net change in plant iWUE, it can be appreciated that had the air's CO 2 content not risen over the period in question, the alpine plants would have fared far worse than they did in reality. Reference"
## [1867] "Responding to this concern, the six scientists went on to test the ability of the globally-important phytoplankton species Emiliania huxleyi to adapt to ocean warming in combination with ocean acidification. In describing their findings Schluter et al . state that \"growth rates were up to 16% higher in populations adapted for one year to warming when assayed at their upper thermal tolerance limit,\" while particulate inorganic and organic carbon production was -- as a result of adaptive evolution over a period of three years -- 101% and 55% higher under combined warming (26.3 vs. 15.0??C) and acidification (2200 vs. 400 ??atm CO 2 ), respectively, than in non-adapted controls."
## [1868] "Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant, he always emphasized. It is a plant-fertilizing trace gas (400 ppm or 0.04% of the atmosphere), essential for photosynthesis and life on Earth. Rising CO2 levels are increasing crop, forest, and grassland growth, improving ecosystems and wildlife, and feeding more people. In fact, the 50-ppm increase in atmospheric CO2 between 1981 and 2010 fertilized an 11% boost in plant cover worldwide. Moreover, current CO2 levels are quite low relative to their levels across geological time, meaning terrestrial, fresh water, and oceanic plant life is currently starved for CO2 by comparison."
## [1869] "Levels of CO2 far beyond what we will ever be able to achieve in the ambient atmosphere are highly beneficial for plant growth, which is why most commercial greenhouses use CO2 generators to keep CO2 at 3x to 4x ambient levels, at significant expense. They spend the money to keep CO2 levels high because that dramatically improves productivity."
## [1870] "Polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) have become a symbol of global warming, and their predicted decline a sign of worst to come, but until very recently population estimates were really just educated guesses. Current polar bear numbers are estimated to total between 20,000 and 25,000."
## [1871] "Their conclusion also means that the climate sensitivity i.e. the expected warming obtained from doubling of CO2 from 280 ppm (in 1800) to 560 ppm (in 2100) is actually smaller than the bare value of 1.2 ??C. It could be close to 0.5 ??C which would mean that no additional warming from CO2 is expected by 2100."
## [1872] "The answer to the third question may be that there is a generally positive effect if the only change to the atmosphere was a significant increase in CO 2 concentration. Most plant growth increases at higher levels of CO 2 . It also appears that some concerns for negative effects on ocean life from increased ocean acidity from CO 2 were exaggerated, or even totally wrong (as will be discussed more later) (also see http://www.seafriends.org.nz/issues/global/acid.htm ). A significant change in ocean pH would cause some changes, and there would be some winners and some losers in ocean life, but it appears that for realistic level changes this would not be a major problem. In fact, combining the slightly higher temperature with higher CO 2 levels should significantly increase world crop growth if these are the only factors, and this is clearly a generally positive effect."
## [1873] "The ingredient plants need most is carbon from CO2. They typically exchange over 2,000 water molecules to grab one CO2 molecule. Plants are desperate for carbon from the air, just like we humans are desperate for oxygen from the air. \"No CO2\", implies no plant growth. One of the main roles of water in plant life is just so the plant can exchange it for carbon."
## [1874] "We hear over and over that climate change is now so rapid that ecosystems all over the world are in peril as they attempt to cope with changes to the environment. This view of delicate ecosystems is at odds with the reality of the long climate history of the Earth. The climate has warmed in the past, cooled in the past, and many of these changes were quite rapid. Delicate ecosystems would have disappeared long ago and the most robust systems would have survived."
## [1875] "Next, my own unit and I published satellite measurements that clearly show a natural cooling mechanism in the tropics which all of the leading computerized climate models have been insisting is a warming mechanism (Spencer et al., August 9, 2007 Geophysical Research Letters)."
## [1876] "The coral reefs at Milne Bay have been around for a long time and are known for their great biodiversity . I find the claim about reef fish survival due to reduced pH to be puzzling since they seem to be doing well for quite a long time. The fish seem to have not only survived but adapted to their environment. pH is reported to affect coral populations, but the reefs and seeps have been around for a very long time."
## [1877] "Based on the graphical representations of Lhotakova et al .'s findings, we calculate that at the end of the eight-year CO 2 enrichment experiment there was a CO 2 -induced increase in light-saturated net photosynthesis of approximately 115% in the trees' sun-exposed needles and about 55% in their shaded needles; and we likewise calculate that there was an approximate 20% decrease in the mean dark respiration rate of the trees' sun-exposed needles and about 40% in their shaded needles."
## [1878] "As we both know or should know carbon dioxide is plant food. Other nutrients are needed, but CO2 is a plants only food, it cannot survive without it. Carbon dioxide replenished through the carbon cycle is the source of the carbon utilized to produce carbohydrates through photosynthesis. Without plants of course, we animals could not survive."
## [1879] "Why Coral Reefs and Shellfish Will Not Die From \"Ocean Acidification'"
## [1880] "Temme et al . conclude that in terms of carbon gain and whole-plant growth rate, responses to low CO 2 are, in fact, somewhat more extreme than responses to high CO 2 , the latter of which gradually diminish in magnitude as the air's CO 2 concentration rises higher and higher. Reviewed 19 February 2014"
## [1881] "The three Israeli researchers write that \"to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of the reproductive responses of CAM plants to CO 2 enrichment,\" and they state that their experiments demonstrate \"the vast potential of possible increases in the yields of CAM crops under CO 2 enrichment.\" Reference"
## [1882] "Heclaims that there is no dispute about CO2 trapping heat. But thats just a diversion from the real issue: CO2 sensitivity and feedbacks. Of course CO2 is a greenhouse gas. But the question is: How much warming will a doubling of CO2 lead to? Not much, or a lot? Thats what is beinghotly debated. A number of recent peer-reviewed studies and data are showing that the warming indeed will be small."
## [1883] "The authors also noted that the proportion of corals that bleached in the summer declined over the period of study, while the proportion of young juveniles increased, suggesting a \"recovery\" of the corals and that their \"symbionts may be adapting to the stress.\""
## [1884] "To date, in what Norby and Iversen describe as \"the longest observation period for N dynamics in a non-expanding deciduous forest exposed to elevated CO 2 ,\" there is no indication of nitrogen limiting, or even beginning to limit, the ability of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment to enhance tree productivity. Reference"
## [1885] "2) An increase or decrease in greenhouse gases such as water vapour or carbon dioxide. (However, Miscolczi thinks an increase in co2 will cause a decrease in water vapour to re-equilibriate the system)"
## [1886] "The four Brazilian researchers say their findings \"indicate changes in the pool of defense-related flavonoids in soybeans due to increased carbon availability, which may differentially alter the responsiveness of soybean plants to pathogens in CO 2 atmospheric concentrations such as those predicted for future decades.\" Put more simply, the ongoing rise in the air's CO 2 content will likely increase the ability of soybeans to withstand the attacks of various plant diseases in the years and decades to come, helping the world to better meet the challenge of feeding its still-growing population. Reviewed 11 March 2009"
## [1887] "Notably, Dr. Idso emphasized that the increased CO2 levels allow plants to produce the same amount of crop yield with less water. Moreover, plants are able to grow in dry areas where it had been previously too dry to exist. A collateral benefit to this is that the increased vegetation reduces the effects of soil erosion."
## [1888] "An analysis of Scots pines in Catalonia, Spain showed that tree diameter and cross-sectional area expanded by 84% between 1900 and 2000. The growth of young Wisconsin trees increased by 60%, and tree ring width expanded by almost 53%, as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rose from 316 ppm in 1958 to 376 ppm in 2003, researchers calculated."
## [1889] "The fundamental issue can be framed as a question of cause and effect, for instance: To what extent are climatic variations in clouds caused by temperature change (feedback), versus temperature change being the result of cloud variations? If variability in cloudiness on any time scale is caused by some internal process other than feedback, the resulting relationship between temperature and radiative fluxes will look like positive feedback possibly even obscuring the signature of true negative cloud feedback."
## [1890] "The critical scientific measure of whether or not increased atmospheric carbon dioxide will cause significant global warming is the sensitivity of the earths temperatures to a doubling of carbon dioxide. Since 1979, the estimate has been 1.5 C to 4.5 C about 3 to 8F. U.S. government reports estimate U.S. expenditures on climate change top $165 billion, with over $35 billion given to climate science between 1993 and 2013. Yet, the latest report (2013) by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change places the sensitivity at 1.5 C to 4.5 C, the same as it was 35 years ago."
## [1891] "For example, based on data from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography Pier, studies in the 1990s showed that higher temperatures are beneficial for sardine production. By 2010 new studies proved that the temperature correlation was instead a misleading, or mirage, determination."
## [1892] "In harmony with the findings of Alderkamp et al . (2012), Tortell et al . conclude that the \"exceptionally high productivity in the Amundsen Sea polynyas likely due to the high glacially-derived Fe concentrations of this water mass.\" And this exceptionally high productivity ensures an exceptionally high organic matter sinking flux, which would be expected to have a cooling effect on the planet, due to the CO 2 it extracted from the atmosphere and incorporated into its tissues sinking with it. In addition, the much higher sea-to-air flux of DMS would be expected to also have a cooling effect on the planet, as described by the CLAW hypothesis of Charlson et al . (1987). And for more on that phenomenon, we direct you to Dimethyl Sulphide in our Subject Index."
## [1893] "Is there any reliable evidence that we could lose two-thirds of the polar bear population by mid-century? From the Mail Online, Is the polar bear a political weapon? Arctic creatures are NOT threatened by climate change, says scientist"
## [1894] "The two U.S. researchers report that the results of their analyses indicate that the global land carbon sink is intensifying , and that it is doing so at a rate of 0.057 PgC/year/year, resulting in 1.65 PgC of additional uptake over the period examined (1980-2008), which finding, in their words, \"is consistent with related findings in recent years,\" citing in this regard the studies of Cao et al . (2002), Cao et al . (2005), Le Quere et al . (2009) and Piao et al . (2009). What it means"
## [1895] "That the fish have evolved a method to deal with excess calcium implies the ocean levels have risen from what they were when the basic cellular structure first evolved. Over millions of years, the ocean is getting saltier and, it would seem, with higher levels of calcium too. At the same time, we have a calcium carbonate influx deficit rate right now in the ocean (per that paper). If you put those two together, I get that we are just getting the ocean back a little bit toward the original calcium level. (And maybe it would benefit from a bit more carbonate flux to help that along)."
## [1896] "Plant growth enhancement with CO2 up to 1000 ppm is strong, and up to 2000 ppm is measurable, meaning that plants know how to use more, expect to have more, and are rate limited at the low levels of today."
## [1897] "In short, if melting permafrost continues, as it has being doing steadily since the last Ice Age, then more carbon dioxide will be absorbed. This represents a massive natural buffer to any tipping point predicted by climate change doomsayers."
## [1898] "Oliver and Palumbi say their results suggest \"previous exposure to an environmentally variable microhabitat adds substantially to coral-algal thermal tolerance, beyond that provided by heat-resistant symbionts alone,\" indicating a latent potential of Earth's corals to adapt to warmer temperatures than scientists believed possible in the past, should they gradually begin to experience recurring daily episodes of greater warmth in a gradually warming world."
## [1899] "In the words of the authors, the results of this study are important because they indicate that \"transgenerational acclimation can help to overcome behavioral impairment observed in fishes exposed to high CO 2 ,\" adding that \"as CO 2 levels rise over coming decades, both parental and offspring generations will experience similar elevated CO 2 levels; thus our results indicate that this parental exposure will help to reduce some of the negative effects of high CO 2 on behavior.\" Unfortunately, only a few studies have incorporated the concept of transgenerational acclimation when studying the response of marine life to rising temperatures and CO 2 . Given the findings of Allan et al ., more researchers would be wise to incorporate it into their experimental design; for in so doing, they will likely come closer to the true response of marine life to future climate and seawater pH conditions."
## [1900] "And the only purely observational study featured in AR4, Forster & Gregory (2006), which used satellite observations of radiation entering and leaving the atmosphere, also gave a best estimate of 1.6C, with a 95% upper bound of 4.1C."
## [1901] "The six scientists report that they \"found almost no direct effects of OA on microzooplankton composition and diversity,\" and that \"both the relative shares of ciliates and heterotrophic dinoflagellates as well as the taxonomic composition of microzooplankton remained unaffected by changes in pCO 2 /pH.\""
## [1902] "Peer-reviewed Study: Arctic and Subarctic Species Benefit from Global Warming"
## [1903] "In light of their experimental findings, Haynert et al . conclude that foraminiferal communities are fully able to \"withstand present-day, seasonally high p CO 2 levels and might also tolerate moderate future p CO 2 increases,\" and maybe even some that are not so \"moderate.\""
## [1904] "An ECS value of 1.8 is not consistent with any catastrophic warming estimates but is consistent with skeptical arguments that warming will be mild and non-catastrophic. At the current rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 (about 2.1 ppm/yr), and an ECS of 1.8, we should expect 1.0 C of warming by 2100. By comparison, we have experienced 0.86 C warming since the start of the HADCRUT4 data set. This warming is similar to what would be expected over the next ~ 100 years and has not been catastrophic by any measure."
## [1905] "See the entire article. It trashes the idea that global warming hurt the Alaska polar bear populations in 2004 and 2006, when bear counts were one of the pieces of evidence used to have the bears listed as threatened in the U.S."
## [1906] "When all was said and done, however, Jutfelt and Hedg? rde report they found no effect of CO 2 treatment on any of the behaviors tested, indicating that \"behavioral effects of CO 2 are not universal in teleosts\" and that \"the behavior of Atlantic cod could be resilient to the impacts of near-future levels of water CO 2 .\" Ruminating on why this may be the case, the authors note that Atlantic cod have been observed to forage in deep waters of low pH, and, therefore, may be \"physiologically adapted to be tolerant to high environmental CO 2 levels.\""
## [1907] "Its probably a better bet that organisms that have been around for 500 million years, on a planet that was much warmer, had much more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, got hit by an asteroid or two, experienced ice ages, and now a slight warming, will be around long after homo sapiens hit the evolutionary road."
## [1908] "Gil-Delgado et al . say that their \"finding of an increased subpopulation on Byers Peninsula\" suggests that \"the entire South Georgia stock may also be increasing instead of being stable as currently assumed.\" In addition, they note that \"the occurrence of southern elephant seals breeding in recent times and in areas located at higher latitudes, such as Anvers island (ASPA 113, 2009), suggests that the breeding range of this species is expanding.\" And, therefore, they conclude that \"habitat availability for southern elephant seals in Antarctica could increase as a result of climate change, thus providing additional suitable breeding habitats,\" as suggested at the turn of the century by the observations of McMahon and Campbell (2000). References"
## [1909] "The mean is not a good central estimate for a parameter like climate sensitivity with a highly skewed distribution. The median or mode (most likely value) provide more appropriate estimates. Aldrin's main results mode for sensitivity is between 1.5 and 1.6C; the median is about halfway between the mode and the mean."
## [1910] "The first article appears in Environmental Pollution and was written by three scientists from the University of Illinois, Michigan Technological University, and the United States Department of Agriculture. Before we go further, we did wonder a bit why the authors chose this journal for their article? The article deals with aspen trees and carbon dioxide, which we do not see as a pollutant, and tropospheric ozone, which we agree is a pollutant. McGrath et al. note early in the article that is expected to increase 50% by 2050. Elevated increases photosynthetic rate in C3 plants, above-ground dry matter production, yield and maximum LAI (LAI is leaf area index). So even before the experiment is conducted, the authors were fully aware that elevated CO2 has many positive benefits for aspen."
## [1911] "Elevated CO 2 enhanced rates of net photosynthesis by an average of 38% in both cultivars. In addition, it reduced stomatal conductances by an average of 30%. Consequently, instantaneous water-use efficiency increased by approximately 80% in both cultivars. Moreover, analyses of rubisco kinetics indicated elevated CO 2 did not induce photosynthetic acclimation in either cultivar. What it means"
## [1912] "In light of the findings of Pansch et al ., as well as those of the other researchers they cite, it would appear that juvenile barnacles of the species they studied are already well equipped to meet the challenges of a significantly warmed and acidified ocean."
## [1913] "In the face of a changing climate many species must adapt or perish. Ecologists studying evolutionary responses to climate change forecast that cold-blooded tropical species are not as vulnerable to extinction as previously thought. The study, published in the British Ecological Society's Functional Ecology , considers how fast species can evolve and adapt to compensate for a rise in temperature."
## [1914] "Ocean acidification in response to rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressures is widely expected to reduce calcification by marine organisms. From the mid-Mesozoic, coccolithophores have been major calcium carbonate producers in the worlds oceans, today accounting for about a third of the total marine CaCO3 production. Here, we present laboratory evidence that calcification and net primary production in the coccolithophore species Emiliania huxleyi are significantly increased by high CO2 partial pressures. Field evidence from the deep ocean is consistent with these laboratory conclusions, indicating that over the past 220 years there has been a 40% increase in average coccolith mass. Our findings show that coccolithophores are already responding and will probably continue to respond to rising atmospheric CO2 partial pressures, which has important implications for biogeochemical modeling of future oceans and climate."
## [1915] "Iversen et al . conclude that \"the greater residence time of C in deeper soil indicates that inputs from deep roots under elevated CO 2 may increase the potential for long-term storage of C and N in forested ecosystems,\" adding that \"this finding suggests greater C accrual in elevated CO 2 compared with ambient CO 2 during the experiment, consistent with the conclusion of a meta-analysis that indicated increased ecosystem C storage under elevated CO 2 (Luo et al ., 2006),\" all of which observations presage, in their words, \"the potential of future forests to store C and mitigate some portion of rising atmospheric CO 2 ,\" as they state in the concluding sentence of their report."
## [1916] "The polar bear population may be near the historic high at 20 to 25,000 animals. In the 1950s and 60s, the population may have been as low as 5,000. Sea-ice extent is cyclical. Bears have withstood many cycles of sea-ice shrinking and growing, including previous interglacials. The polar bear population is in no danger."
## [1917] "Lindzens hypothesis was that high altitude tropical cirrus results from remnant moisture detrained from towering cumulonimbus clouds (convection cell thunderstorms). Depending on a lot of complicated cloud microphysics, a warmer sea surface could produce more massive convection cells containing more moisture, which would precipitate more rainfall, leaving less upper troposphere residual moisture detraining to form warming cirrus. So the proportions of upper troposphere dry and moist regions would counter-intuitively change as SST warmed in favor of dryand less cirrus. Hence there would be an adaptive infrared iris where warmer sea surfaces would produce via intermediate tropospheric convection and precipitation processes less cirrus, and therefore a net negative tropical cloud feedback. (This oversimplified description suffices for this post.)"
## [1918] "No evidence exists that suggests that both bears and the conservation systems that regulate them will not adapt and respond to the new conditions. Polar bears have persisted through many similar climate cycles."
## [1919] "As the CO 2 content of the air increases, belowground biomass production should increase in this particular type of annual grassland, either directly from CO 2 -induced increases in photosynthesis or indirectly from CO 2 -induced reductions in water use, which tend to increase soil moisture content. Hence, overall productivity in such grasslands will likely increase as the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration continues to rise."
## [1920] "As the CO 2 content of the air increases, fast-growing native annual species, such as the five studied in this paper, will likely respond positively by increasing their photosynthetic rates and total biomass, regardless of any concomitant rise in air temperature."
## [1921] "Overall the SPPI report makes for a fascinating (although quite technical) read. I recommend it to anyone who wants to get into the nitty-gitty details of how marine organisms from corals, to phytoplankton, to fish respond to changes in the oceans chemistry as a result from atmospheric CO2 enrichment. By the end, after turning page after page full of examples from the scientific literature that seem to run counter to the ocean-acidification-is-most-certainly-going to-be-bad mantra, you really begin to wonder whether ocean acidification is any more than much ado about nothing."
## [1922] "As a result, at higher CO2 concentrations, plants can better cope under conditions of drought, thereby vastly improving their productivity and growth as opposed to conditions experienced under lower CO2."
## [1923] "Lewis finds that in recent years neither the global temperature nor ocean heat uptake have changed very much, while CO 2 concentrations have continued to rise. Therefore, the climate sensitivity must be lower."
## [1924] "As noted in our Editorial of 10 Dec 2003 , Hungate et al . (2003) claim - by way of a Carnegie Institution press release hyping their paper - that in a future world of higher atmospheric CO 2 concentration, \"the availability of nitrogen , in forms usable by plants, will probably be too low for large increases in carbon storage,\" ... or as van Groenigen et al . (2003) restate their contention, \"reduced soil N availability under elevated CO 2 may limit the plant's capacity to increase photosynthesis and thus the potential for increased soil C input.\" What was done"
## [1925] "Conclusion: As multiple scientific studies have now shown, the ocean acidification hysteria is just that. Marine life seems extremely capable in its adaptive abilities, such that the risk from lower sea pH levels due to excess CO2 is tiny. This is also now true for the world's plankton communities in spite of the IPCC's prediction."
## [1926] "Xiao et al . concluded that the results of their study \"confirmed the beneficial effects of elevated CO 2 on C. intermedia seedlings exposed to drought-stressed conditions,\" and that these findings \"suggest that elevated CO 2 may enhance drought avoidance and improved water relations, thus weakening the effect of drought stress on growth of C. intermedia seedlings,\" all of which phenomena should help to fight desertification in the Maowusu sandland of China and parts of Inner Mongolia as the air's CO 2 content continues to rise. Reference"
## [1927] "If there was no carbon dioxide, it would be impossible for plants to grow, we would rapidly run out of food and life on this planet would cease to exist."
## [1928] "Very few people disagree with the basic fact that the greenhouse gas CO 2 warms the climate, but without some kind of positive feedback mechanism, it doesnt add very much: around 1C-1.2C per doubling of CO 2 . (See this discussion on no-feedback sensitivity). The global warming crisis emerged from a belief that small rises in CO 2 concentrations result in large knock-on effects, or strong positive feedbacks. These remain conjectural, as the forcings and feedbacks are poorly understood. Just how much of an effect does a rise in CO 2 have a little, or a lot? Hence the importance of new and better studies in the area of climate science dealing with attribution."
## [1929] "Similarly, relatively large warming and cooling radiative forcings (e.g., well-mixed greenhouse gases and the indirect effect of aerosols) could be in near balance at present, suggesting that sudden climate changes could occur if one of these forcings becomes dominant. On the other hand, a loss of space to a large portion of the increased radiative fluxes, as the atmosphere adjusts, such as through a change in cloud cover (e.g., Lindzen et al. 2001), would suggest that the climate system is relatively more resilient to continued anthropogenic heating effects than conventionally assumed."
## [1930] "To put it another way, the reason that polar bears in some areas easily survive an onshore fast of 4 months or more over the late summer/early fall is that they would get very little to eat (if anything) even if they stayed out on the ice. It??s the fat put on in spring/early summer (from gorging on baby seals) that carries them over the summer, no matter where they spend it."
## [1931] "Now consider the Apocalypse Delayed? posting of March 28th. Referring to an Economist article, it says that a number of empirical studies show that climate sensitivity is much lower than the climate models assume. Therefore, moving into the net cost range seems much less likely."
## [1932] "A coral reef in Northern Australia severely damaged by warming seas has managed to completely heal itself in just 12 years, stunned researchers have found."
## [1933] "So, no climate that has been relatively stable can have high levels of positive feedback. And if a climate did have very high levels of positive feedback it would have gone off the rails a very long time ago either leading to runaway warming or runaway cooling until the climate had so changed that the positive feedback mechanism disappeared and it became stable again but with an entirely new temperature or state."
## [1934] "In both cases, plants absorb CO 2 through stomata in their leaves and they need a very large amount of water to grow. A higher CO 2 concentration allows them to reduce the number of stomata and save water, if I simplify things a bit. So one may say that a higher CO 2 helps the plants to deal with the shortage of water."
## [1935] "The four Spanish researchers say that \"elevated CO 2 caused cork oak seedlings to improve their performance in dry and high light environments to a greater extent than under well-irrigated and low-light conditions, thus ameliorating the effects of soil water stress and high light loads on growth .\" Consequently, and because they believe these latter two stressful conditions are what \"global change is likely to produce in the Mediterranean basin in the next decades,\" it can be appreciated that the ongoing rise in the air's CO 2 concentration should help the cork oak species to better deal with those stresses, if they actually do occur. Reviewed 25 April 2007"
## [1936] "As far as green plants are concerned, CO2 is not a pollutant, but part of their daily breadlike water, sunlight, nitrogen, and other essential elements. Most green plants evolved at CO2 levels of several thousand ppm, many times higher than now. Plants grow better and have better flowers and fruit at higher levels. Commercial greenhouse operators recognize this when they artificially increase the concentrations inside their greenhouses to over 1000 ppm."
## [1937] "Or consider the nonsense widely promulgated about the Costa Rican golden toad --a species whose disappearance alarmist scientists frequently ascribe to \"climate change,\" despite overwhelming evidence that it perished as a result of a fungus unconnected with \"global warming.\""
## [1938] "As the CO 2 content of the air increases, most plants will likely experience concomitant decreases in oxidative stresses, which trigger the production of reactive compounds that can cause cellular damage. Thus, plants should require reduced concentrations of the enzymes that detoxify these harmful substances; and this phenomenon should allow valuable resources to be invested elsewhere in the plant, which may (to some extent) actually keep low nutrient-induced oxidative stresses from occurring in the first place. Reviewed 15 December 1998"
## [1939] "Frankly neither the pH range nor the time frame for OA seems to be outside natural variation. There is also ample evidence that more significant physiological changes can happen in shorter time frames. At the end of the day, before we get all hot and bothered by OA we need to sit back and acknowledge that the species in contention not only show a wider reaction range than is commonly presented, but that whatever their method for calcification is, they simply need to increase the metabolic rates, or the mean metabolic rate of the species through natural selection, to adapt to changing oceanic conditions."
## [1940] "ased on what we see in the atmosphere, there is no evidence of substantial increases in methane emissions from the Arctic in the past 20 years."
## [1941] "Once again - see Greening of the Earth in our Subject Index - we have more compelling evidence for the powerful aerial fertilization and transpiration reducing effects of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment and what they can do for both the managed and unmanaged biosphere in terms of enhancing biological prodctivity."
## [1942] "On the other hand, Italian researchers have just finished surveying bird species in a high Piedmont valley where the temperature since the early 1990s has increased about 1 degree C. How did the birds adapt? They did nothing. Sixty-eight bird species were detected in both the 1992-94 survey and the 2003-05 survey. The researchers report \"the number of species whose mean elevation increased (42) was higher than the number whose mean elevation decreased (19).\" But the birds move up an average of just 29 metersnot statistically different from zero."
## [1943] "Social Benefits of Carbon: Craig Idso of CO2 Science has a post on the Cato web site describing the great benefits of enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Together with his father Sherwood and brother Keith, the Idsos have built a large repository of studies evaluating the effects of enhanced carbon dioxide, both on land and in waters (oceans). Sherwood and Craig were lead authors of the extensive report, with multiple scientific references, by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC): Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts (2014)."
## [1944] "Ow et al. say the results of their study demonstrated that tropical seagrasses can increase their photosynthetic rates, adjust photosynthetic performance and increase growth rates in response to CO2 enrichment??"
## [1945] "Figure 1, on the other hand, shows my results regarding the same question of the climate sensitivity. These reveal nothing like a 3C temperature rise from a doubling of CO2:"
## [1946] "Lewis and Curry arrive at their lower equilibrium climate sensitivity estimate by using updated compilations of the earths observed temperature change, oceanic heat uptake, and the magnitude of human emissions, some of which should cause warming (e.g., greenhouse gases), while the others should cool (e.g., sulfate aerosols). They try to factor out natural variability. By comparing values of these parameters from the mid-19 century to now, they can estimate how much the earth warmed in association with human greenhouse gas emissions."
## [1947] "In light of these several observations, it would appear that if humanity's many physical and chemical disturbances of the planet's coral reef environments were either eliminated or significantly reduced, there would be much less warming-induced destruction of corals throughout the world; for if a 50% reduction in seawater Cu concentration provides a 3.5??C increase in the degree of heat that can be tolerated by coral larvae, and if a 50-80% reduction in dissolved inorganic nitrogen runoff provides 2??C more relief, imagine what benefits similar reductions in man's many other assaults upon earth's coral reef environments might bring."
## [1948] "3. Accelerating , rapid and \"runaway, tipping point\" global warming does not exist, nor is it even remotely and/or feasibly \"imminent\""
## [1949] "In spite of all of the purportedly unprecedented negative influences arrayed against them over the past decade and a half, GBR corals appear to have held their own, maintaining a stable presence over the totality of their 1300-km linear expanse. References"
## [1950] "Once again quoting the researchers who did the work, \"our results show both short-term acclamatory and longer-term adaptive acquisition of climate resistance.\" And they thus conclude that \"adding these adaptive abilities to ecosystem models is likely to slow predictions of demise for coral reef ecosystems.' References"
## [1951] "Now the picture seems to look rather less satisfying. We can see that empirical measurement is suggesting a low climate sensitivity with the most likely value at around 1.5C. Higher values are driven by the modelling studies. Moreover, we can see that large ranges of values of climate sensitivity as implied by the empirical measurements of Forster and Gregory are not covered by the PAGE model at all. The IPCC's suggestion that climate sensitivity is most likely to be in the range 24.5C is shown to be barely supportable and then only by favouring computer simulations of the climate over empirical measurements. This seems to me to throw lesson one of the scientific method out of the classroom window. And I really do mean lesson one:"
## [1952] "Gooding et al . report that \"the relative growth (change in wet mass/initial wet mass) of juvenile P. ochraceus increased linearly with temperature from 5C to 21C,\" and that it also responded positively to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment. More specifically, they state that \"relative to control treatments, high CO 2 alone increased relative growth by 67% over 10 weeks, while a 3C increase in temperature alone increased relative growth by 110%.\" They also state that increased CO 2 \"had a positive but non-significant effect on sea star feeding rates, suggesting CO 2 may be acting directly at the physiological level to increase growth rates.\" Last of all, their data show that the percentage of calcified mass in the sea stars dropped from approximately 12% to 11% in response to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment at 12C, but that it did not decline further in response to a subsequent 3C warming at either ambient or elevated CO 2 . What it means"
## [1953] "Leaf water potential in plants subjected to drought, but grown at elevated CO2, was less negative than in their ambient CO2 grown counterparts ... Read More"
## [1954] "Satellite observations reveal a greening of the globe over recent decades. The role in this greening of the CO2 fertilization effectthe enhancement of photosynthesis due to rising CO2 levelsis yet to be established. The direct CO2 effect on vegetation should be most clearly expressed in warm, arid environments where water is the dominant limit to vegetation growth. Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase in atmospheric CO2 (19822010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations, analyzed to remove the effect of variations in precipitation, show that cover across these environments has increased by 11%. Our results confirm that the anticipated CO2 fertilization effect is occurring alongside ongoing anthropogenic perturbations to the carbon cycle and that the fertilization effect is now a significant land surface process."
## [1955] "The six scientists report that enhanced plant production -- an increase in aboveground biomass on the order of 40% in response to their specific degree of elevated CO 2 -- \"did not lead to a progressive decline in soil N availability.\" In fact, they say that on the contrary , \"soil N availability remained higher after 5 years of elevated than ambient CO 2 ,\" likely due to \"a greater mineralization rate under elevated CO 2 .\" As for why this was so, they speculate that \"elevated CO 2 increased soil moisture due to decreased plant transpiration at our site (Nelson et al ., 2004), which could have stimulated microbial activity and N mineralization.\" What it means"
## [1956] "In the first experiment, the total reproductive biomass of the plants that were grown in CO 2 -enriched air was 32% greater than that of the plants grown in ambient air, as was the total number of fruit produced.?? In the second experiment, for seeds from female plants grown in ambient air, 55% of all emergence occurred within six days of sowing, while for seeds from plants grown in CO 2 -enriched air, 67% of total emergence occurred during the same period.?? In addition, 87% of the seeds from the elevated-CO 2 -grown plants ultimately germinated, while only 67% of the seeds from the ambient-CO 2 -grown plants did so.?? Last of all, there was a tendency for a greater percentage of female progeny to be produced in the CO 2 -enriched air than in ambient-air (56.3% vs. 52.7%). What it means"
## [1957] "CLEXIT's founding statement says, \"This vicious and relentless war on carbon dioxide will be seen by future generations as the most misguided mass delusion that the world has ever seen. Carbon dioxide is NOT a dangerous pollutant it is a natural, non-toxic, and beneficial gas which feeds all life on earth. Its increasing concentration is improving the environment, not harming it.\""
## [1958] "The IPCC models water vapour-driven positive feedback as starting from the pre-industrial level. Somehow the carbon dioxide below the pre-industrial level does not cause this water vapour-driven positive feedback. If their water vapour feedback is a linear relationship with carbon dioxide, then we should have seen over 2 C of warming by now. We are told that the Earth warmed by 0.7 C over the 20 th Century. Where I live ??? Perth, Western Australia missed out on a lot of that warming."
## [1959] "Elevated CO 2 significantly increased leaf tannin and starch contents in a genotypically-dependent and -independent manner, respectively, while decreasing leaf cyanoglycoside contents, regardless of genotype. Atmospheric CO 2 enrichment did not significantly affect leaf water, sugar, protein, or nitrogen contents. Thus, these CO 2 -induced changes in leaf chemistry (higher starch and tannin and lower cyanoglycoside concentrations) increased its palatability, as indicated by greater leaf dry weight consumption of CO 2 -enriched leaves by butterfly larvae. In addition, increased leaf consumption (of CO 2 -enriched leaves) led to greater larval biomass and shorter larval developmental times, indicating that atmospheric CO 2 enrichment affected leaf quality to positively influence larvae of the Common Blue Butterfly. Moreover, larval mortality was lower when feeding upon CO 2 -enriched, rather than ambiently-grown, leaves. What it means"
## [1960] "The three Australian researchers discovered that the RMRs of fish reared at 29.5 and 31.5??C were \"significantly higher than the control group reared at 28.5??C,\" and they indicate that \"fish that developed in 30.5 and 31.5??C exhibited an enhanced ability to deal with acute temperature increases.\" What it means"
## [1961] "Bellantuono et al . say their findings suggest that \"the physiological plasticity of the host and/or symbiotic components appears to play an important role in responding to ocean warming,\" and they go on to describe some real-world examples of where this phenomenon may have played a crucial role in preserving corals exposed to extreme warm temperatures in the past (Fang et al ., 1997; Middlebrook et al ., 2008; Maynard et al ., 2008), all of which suggests, of course, that earth's corals may be much better adapted to dealing with global warming than has long been believed."
## [1962] "Herrick and Thomas conclude that atmospheric CO 2 enrichment stimulates the seasonally integrated carbon gain of sweetgum trees by increasing rates of leaf photosynthesis, but not by changing leaf phenology. They also demonstrate that the CO 2 -induced stimulation of photosynthesis has now persisted in these specific trees for several years, with no indication it is in process of significantly declining. References"
## [1963] "Mumby and Harborne's findings suggest that marine reserves can indeed \"build coral resilience and offset the effects of global climate change.\" And they also suggest that were it not for the site-specific deleterious effects of humanity on reef environments, this would likely be the case nearly everywhere, which in turn suggests that the local environmental impacts of man are what are harming earth's corals, and not the more speculative global impacts that the world's climate alarmists typically blame on anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Reviewed 31 March 2010"
## [1964] "???The results of the study indicated that a temperature increase of up to 2C could be advantageous for growth of some species of tropical plants, such as Stylosanthes capitata Vogel ,?? Martinez stated."
## [1965] "Last week, at the World Federation of Scientists annual seminar on planetary emergencies in Sicily, I heard presentations from several researchers each using different methods showing that the warming from doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration will be just 1 C, not the 3.3 C the IPCC imagines."
## [1966] "Franke and Clemmesen conclude that \"herring eggs can cope at current temperature conditions with an increase in CO 2 ,\" even one \"exceeding future predictions of CO 2 -driven ocean acidification.\" References"
## [1967] "In the words of the authors of this study, ???our findings suggest that diverse grasslands throughout the globe have the potential to be resilient to drought in the face of climate change through the local expansion of drought-tolerant species,?? which is good news for the future of grasslands worldwide?? Read More"
## [1968] "The hits just keep coming... The number of bears along the western shore of Hudson Bay, believed to be among the most threatened bear subpopulations, stands at 1,013 and could be even higher, according to the results of an aerial survey released Wednesday by the Government of Nunavut. Thats 66 per cent higher than estimates by other researchers who forecasted the numbers would fall to as low as 610 because of warming temperatures that melt ice faster and ruin bears ability to hunt. The Hudson Bay region, which straddles Nunavut and Manitoba, is critical because its considered a bellwether for how polar bears are doing elsewhere in the Arctic. h/t Glenn"
## [1969] "Increase of Carbon Dioxide is thus wholly beneficial to the environment There is no evidence that it causes harm."
## [1970] "Irrespective of soil nitrogen status and air temperature, increases in the air's CO 2 content produced large increases in soybean biomass, as well as soybean seed concentrations of twelve major isoflavones. Hence, it can be appreciated that as the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration continues to rise in the years and decades ahead, both the amount and the potency of important health-promoting properties of soybean seeds will be significantly enhanced, providing huge benefits to humanity. References"
## [1971] "The rising CO2 content of the atmosphere may induce changes in ocean chemistry (pH) that could slightly reduce coral calcification rates; but potential positive effects of hydrospheric CO2 enrichment may more than compensate for this modest negative phenomenon."
## [1972] "The feedback parameter used here is 4 W m-2 K-1, which implies a climate sensitivity of only 1 deg. C warming from a doubling of CO2. This is much less than the IPCC's estimate of 2.5 to 3 deg. C of warming."
## [1973] "Carbon dioxide is an environmentally beneficial atmospheric trace gas;"
## [1974] "The term carbon emissions really refers to emissions of carbon dioxide gas but carbon and carbon dioxide are two totally different things. Carbon is a solid (think coal and charcoal) and the central building block of hydrocarbons, whereas carbon dioxide is the gas that all humans and animals exhale and all plants require to grow. Without carbon dioxide, all life on Earth would cease."
## [1975] "The six Malaysian scientists conclude that \"collectively, the enhancement in yield and quality provides an economic motivation to produce a consistent pharmaceutical-grade product for commercial purposes,\" via what they describe as \"controlled environment plant production.\" And it also stands to reason that the ongoing rise in the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration should gradually increase the medicinal potency of C. asiatica plants either growing wild or cultivated out-of-doors."
## [1976] "Indeed, satellites show that Earths total vegetation increased 6% just from 1982 to 1999, as CO 2 levels increased. Famines in a CO 2 -warmed tomorrow are therefore less likely, not more."
## [1977] "Carbon dioxide gas is NOT a pollutant, but a harmless and vital gas which trees and plants fix by the process of photosynthesis and liberate oxygen to the atmosphere. We humans and all animals need this oxygen to breath and survive. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is recycled naturally, as a plant nutrient, by rock weathering and by being absorbed in the oceans which cover 70% of the Earths surface. So dont blame carbon dioxide for climate change!"
## [1978] "The fertilisation effect occurs where elevated CO 2 enables a leaf during photosynthesis, the process by which green plants convert sunlight into sugar, to extract more carbon from the air or lose less water to the air, or both."
## [1979] "Any regulation seeking to limit the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Earth's atmosphere deliberately and deceptively ignores facts that anyone can understand. Bonner spelled out the basic scientific facts, but it is essential to keep in mind that CO2 is essential to all life on Earth, providing the \"food\" that all vegetation depends."
## [1980] "According to Mydlarz et al ., \"taken together, these studies suggest an unexpected degree of resilience under adverse environmental conditions.\" Indeed, they say \"it is clear from the data presented in this paper that the sea fan aggressively combats infection in the gorgonian- Aspergillus pathosystem and exhibits the capability for resilience against multiple challenges,\" not the least of which, we might add, would be further global warming (if the planet ever starts to warm again after its hiatus of the past decade or so). References"
## [1981] "The authors write that \"because of climate unpredictability, species have evolved a certain amount of tolerance to various abiotic climate-related factors in their responses to warming and cooling events,\" noting that such responses may have been driven by natural selection , \"in which case,\" as they continue, \"genetic traits that provide a higher fitness under the new climate regime are selected, or they may be phenotypically plastic, where the organism can adjust its phenotype without any genotypic change,\" as described by West-Eberhard (2003). What was done"
## [1982] "As for why the Florida Keys corals have fared so well, when climate alarmists claim \"we're on the eve of destruction,\" Helmle et al . write that the answer could be that \"massive reef-building corals are not as susceptible to declines in ?? arag as demonstrated by laboratory experiments; local processes, such as high seasonal variation in ?? arag in the Florida Keys, may be temporarily enabling these corals to maintain their historical rates of calcification; the role of ?? arag in controlling calcification is masked amidst considerable natural inter-annual variability; or the actual in situ reef-site carbonate chemistry is decoupled from the oceanic values, which could occur as a result of shifts in benthic community metabolism, mineral buffering and/or coastal biogeochemical processes.\""
## [1983] "In the oceans, there is a buffering reaction between the sea floor basalts and sea water (see below). Sea water has a local and regional variation in pH (pH 7.8 to 8.3). It should be noted that pH is a log scale and that if we are to create acid oceans, then there is not enough CO2 in fossil fuels to create oceanic acidity because most of the planets CO2 is locked up in rocks."
## [1984] "In light of their findings, as well as those of other scientists studying the subject, Mayfield et al . say \"there is now a growing body of evidence to support the notion that corals inhabiting more thermally unstable habitats outperform conspecifics from reefs characterized by more stable temperatures when exposed to elevated temperatures,\" citing Coles (1975), Castillo and Helmuth (2005) and Oliver and Palumbi (2011). And they report that \"in other systems, provocative gene expression changes, such as the constitutive up-regulation of genes involved in thermotolerance (e.g., hsps; Heath et al ., 1993; Feder, 1996), underlie the capacity for organisms to inhabit high and/or variable temperature environments,\" such as has more recently been documented in corals by Barshis et al . (2013)."
## [1985] "Over the two years of the study, the CO 2 -enriched plants that were exposed to air containing 49% more CO 2 used 12% less water than the ambient-treatment plants, while they produced 47% more tuber biomass. Hence, the CO 2 -enriched plants experienced a 68% increase in water use efficiency , or the amount of biomass produced per unit of water used in producing it. What it means"
## [1986] "By now, you may realize that the acidic CO2 and photosynthesis does not cause a decline of the pH in natural water but an increase instead. In fact, that has been documented by the annual pH spikes observed in ocean water like at the ALOHA Station offshore Hawaii and in freshwater at the Experimental Lakes Area in Canada . When the photosynthesis activity is strong, i.e. in spring and summer, the pH of the water rises. You can demonstrate that yourself with a simple experiment that I have previously described. Give it a try, its easy to do (next to no work required), the ingredients cost next to nothing and it will amaze you."
## [1987] "Nature is dominated by negative feedbacks ??? a reason to expect that the climate sensitivity is smaller than, not larger than, the no-feedback value of 1.2 ??C per CO2 doubling. Why are negative feedbacks more common? It's simple. They're a property of stable points in the landscape of possibilities, in the configuration spaces of complicated physical systems. There can also be unstable points in the landscape where unstable feedbacks may be the kings but because they are unstable, the system usually finds its reason to evolve away from them and end in a more stable situation where the negative feedbacks prevail."
## [1988] "Working at the Duke Forest FACE site in Orange County, North Carolina (USA), where eight 30-meter-diameter plots of loblolly pine ( Pinus taeda L.) trees were enriched with an extra 200 ppm of CO 2 from 1996 to 2010, while four similar plots were maintained under then-current ambient-air conditions, Phillips et al . measured root-induced changes in soil C dynamics of trees exposed to CO 2 and nitrogen enrichment by combining stable isotope analyses, molecular characterizations of soil organic matter, and microbial assays."
## [1989] "1. All the species of coral that occur in the Great Barrier Reef also grow in Papua New Guinea where the waters are 2 degrees warmer."
## [1990] "As the concentration of CO 2 in the air rises, photosynthetic acclimation, which effectively reduces the amount of rubisco in leaves (which is often present in excess amounts), may occur to a greater extent in plants growing at high soil nitrogen, rather than at low soil nitrogen, as greater amounts of rubisco are generally present under higher soil nitrogen regimes. In either case, the mobilization of nitrogen from excess rubisco can supply needed nitrogen to plant sink tissues to allow for their continued growth and development. In all cases, therefore, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment enhances the use efficiency of nitrogen and enables plants to grow more productively in soils regardless of their fertility."
## [1991] "Matthysen et al . emphasize that \"synchronization of the nestling period with the food supply not only depends on first-egg dates but also on additional reproductive parameters including laying interruptions, incubation time and nestling growth rate.\" And as a result of adjustments in these several related phenomena, they report that \"both of our study species have been able to maintain synchrony with their food supply in the face of global warming.\""
## [1992] "Zapata et al . conclude that \"the recent history of La Azufrada reef since coral reef studies began at Gorgona Island three decades ago (Prahl et al ., 1979; Glynn et al ., 1982) suggests a remarkable ability of this reef to recover from past perturbations,\" which are of the type (extreme El Nio-driven temperature increases leading to coral bleaching) that climate alarmists claim should be especially deadly, and from which coral recovery should not be expected."
## [1993] "The above quote illustrates the extent to which the leadership of the EPA will ignore all science that interferes with its quest for power. The work of Sherwood, Craig, and Keith Idso, and many other scientists, has clearly established that an atmosphere enriched with carbon dioxide provides for more robust plant growth than the current atmosphere. Thus, a carbon dioxide enriched atmosphere is a great benefit to agriculture, humanity, and the environment. The EPA ignores this work."
## [1994] "As the air's CO 2 concentration continues to rise, it is likely this dwarf apple species will exhibit significant increases in both photosynthesis and apple production. And if air temperatures also rise, photosynthetic rates will likely be even greater, due to the positive interaction between elevated CO 2 and temperature plus the large CO 2 -induced increase in the optimal temperature for photosynthesis in this species. Thus, apple yields should substantially increase in a future CO 2 -enriched environment, especially if air temperature rises a few degrees."
## [1995] "Now, if we leave out the extinctions by introduced predators, then out of the 207 bird and mammal extinctions there are only 9 extinctions in 500 years, three mammals and six birds. This means that other than extinctions from introduced predators the extinction rate is only 1.2 extinctions per MSY very low."
## [1996] "In conclusion, claims of impending marine species extinctions driven by increases in the atmosphere??s CO2 concentration do not appear to be founded in empirical reality, based on the experimental findings we have analyzed above."
## [1997] "Perhaps the most important difference between the two graphs is the inclusion of a second set of data points in the Wheeler graph. These show the effects of raised temperatures on wheat maintained at elevated CO2 levels. As is plain to see, the effect of temperature seems to be more than compensated for by the enriched atmosphere. In other words the conditions we are alleged to be subject to in future are actually beneficial for wheat."
## [1998] "Figure 2: Plant growth vs CO2 concentration. Plants really begin to suffer once CO2 concentrations fall below 500 ppm. Source: click here ."
## [1999] "A new paper finds that over the past decade the global average effective cloud height has declined and that If sustained, such a decrease would indicate a significant measure of negative cloud feedback to global warming."
## [2000] "6. Empirical evidence shows that Earth is currently \"greening\" significantly due to additional CO2 and a modest warming."
## [2001] "After six months of differential CO 2 treatment, short-term exposure of ambiently-grown plants to an atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 700 ppm increased their photosynthetic rates by approximately 35 and 20% for the grasses and legumes, respectively. However, the long-term photosynthetic responses of most plants grown and measured at atmospheric CO 2 concentrations of 700 ppm were not significantly different from those of control plants grown at ambient CO 2 , indicating that photosynthetic acclimation had occurred in these species. Nevertheless, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment significantly reduced the stomatal conductances of all species in both the short- and long-term, enabling them to maintain significant CO 2 -induced increases in plant water-use efficiency throughout the entire experiment."
## [2002] "Good News For Polar Bears Is Bad News for Global Warming Alarmists"
## [2003] "Seabra et al . further state that \"habitat heterogeneity as determined by surface orientation and, to a lesser extent, height on the shore may provide thermal refugia allowing species to occupy habitats apparently inhospitable when considering only average temperatures,\" and they state that \"this may be important for understanding range shifts contrary to global warming predictions (e.g. Lima et al ., 2007a, 2009; Hilbish et al ., 2010).\" Thus, they emphasize once again that \"thermal heterogeneity within habitats must be fully understood in order to interpret patterns of biogeographic response to climate change.\" And if that is done correctly, it would appear that the \"doom-and-gloom\" predictions of the world's climate alarmists, as regards species extinctions in a warming world, may in reality be not all that \"doomy and gloomy.\""
## [2004] "As the CO 2 content of the air rises, it is likely that ponderosa pine will exhibit increased rates of photosynthesis throughout their entire range in the state of California and elsewhere, regardless of genotype. In addition, with greater carbohydrate supplies, resulting from enhanced photosynthetic rates, it is likely that ponderosa pines will also increase their growth and biomass accumulation as the atmospheric CO 2 concentration continues to increase in the future."
## [2005] "Since this result uses the IPCC models themselves to ???calibrate?? the Levitus observations, it cannot be faulted for using a model that is ???too simple??. To the extent the average IPCC model mimics nature, the models themselves suggest the relatively weak ocean warming observed during 1955-1999 indicates relatively low climate sensitivity."
## [2006] "Additionally, our estimates of climate sensitivity using our and the four instrumental temperature records range from about 1.5C to 2.0C. These are on the low end of the estimates in the IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report . So, while we find that most of the observed warming is due to human emissions of , future warming based on these estimations will grow more slowly compared to that under the IPCCs likely range of climate sensitivity, from 2.0C to 4.5C."
## [2007] "As the air's CO 2 content rises, this spring wheat cultivar (and others) will likely display enhanced rates of photosynthesis, decreased rates of transpirational water loss, and increases in water-use efficiency, even under less-than-optimal soil moisture conditions. Thus, it should be able to better cope with periods of water stress in a future CO 2 -enriched world than it does currently. In addition, this important crop should be able to be grown in areas where low soil moisture conditions presently preclude its cultivation."
## [2008] "In brief response, Maneja et al. write that the swimming kinematics in Atlantic herring larvae that had survived to 34-dph were \"unaffected by extremely elevated levels of seawater p CO 2 , indicating that at least some larvae in the population are resilient to ocean acidification.\" And in further commenting on their findings, they say \"it also appears that inter-individual variation in the behavioral responses of some fishes to elevated p CO 2 selects for tolerant individuals, possibly resulting in resilience to ocean acidification,\" citing the work of Munday et al. (2012)."
## [2009] "The four Colombian researchers report that comparisons with previous studies showed the reef at La Azufrada to have returned to \"pre-disturbance (1979) levels of coral cover within a 10-year period after the 1982-83 El Nio, which caused 85% mortality,\" and that, subsequently, \"the effects of the 1997-98 El Nio, indicated by the difference in overall live coral cover between 1998 and 1999, were minor (<6% reduction).\" And they indicate that \"despite recurrent natural disturbances, live coral cover in 2004 was as high as that existing before 1982 at La Azufrada.\""
## [2010] "Styf et al . report that (1) \"the rate of yolk consumption per day, as a measure of embryonic development rate, significantly increased with temperature,\" that (2) lower pH \"had no effect on development rate,\" that (3) \"pH had no effect on heart rate,\" that (4) \"there was no interaction between pH and temperature,\" that (5) \"there was no significant effect of temperature on oxidative stress when analyzed independent of embryonic age,\" that (6) \"there was a significantly higher level of oxidative stress in the control embryos compared with the embryos developed in low pH,\" and that (7) they \"observed no mortality nor abnormalities.\""
## [2011] "However, the Adelie species is far from threatened as he implies, being common around the entire coast of Antarctica and adjacent islandsin the Ross Sea region alone the Adelie population numbers more than 5,000,000 birds."
## [2012] "Photosynthetic processes are accelerated with the increased availability of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and, hence, it is conjectured that ring growth would also be correlated with atmospheric carbon dioxide; see Graybill and Idso (1993). In addition, oxides of nitrogen are formed in internal combustion engines that can be deposited as nitrates also contributing to fertilization of plant materials. It is clear that while there are temperature signals in the tree rings, the temperature signals are confounded with many other factors including fertilization effects due to use of fossil fuels."
## [2013] "For example, a recent issue of Global Change Biology contains an article about global warming and a positive fitness response in mountain lizards in Europe. Did these lizards not get the memo about extinctions? Maybe the lizards havent read their e-mail about global warming making things tough on lizards around the world? If nothing else, these lizards have obviously not been reading newspapers over the past decade!"
## [2014] "One possible reason for the reversal, say the researchers, is that now, some of the extra atmospheric carbonraw material for photosynthesis???may be feeding back into living plants and making them grow faster. The extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere may be providing a fertilizing effect, said study coauthor Timothy Hall , a senior scientist at NASAs Goddard Institute for Space Studies . Many other scientists are now working to determine the possible effects of increased carbon dioxide on plant growth , and incorporate these into models of past and future climates."
## [2015] "Our analysis revealed a shift in coral community composition but no impact of acidification on coral richness, coralline algae abundance, macroalgae cover, coral calcification, or skeletal density. a comparison of the naturally low-pH coral reef systems studied so far revealed increased bioerosion to be the only consistent feature among them, as responses varied across other indices of ecosystem health."
## [2016] "But alternatively, if a large energy imbalance causes only a small temperature change, then that is called low sensitivity, which is how I, MIT??s Dick Lindzen, and a minority of other climate researchers believe the climate system behaves."
## [2017] "The fact that this has not happened is actually enormously strong evidence against both positive feedback and catastrophe. Yes, anthropogenic CO 2 may have shifted all the attractor temperatures a bit higher, it may have made small rearrangements of the attractors, but there is no evidence that suggests that it is probably going to suddenly create at new attractor far outside of the normal range of variation already visible in the climate record. Is it impossible? Of course not. But it is not probable."
## [2018] "Prof Richard Tol calculated that climate change would be beneficial up to 2.2C of warming from 2009 (when he wrote his paper). This means approximately 3C from pre-industrial levels, since about 0.8C of warming has happened in the last 150 years. The latest estimates of climate sensitivity suggest that such temperatures may not be reached till the end of the century if at all. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose reports define the consensus, is sticking to older assumptions, however, which would mean net benefits till about 2080. Either way, its a long way off."
## [2019] "In the concluding sentence of their revealing paper, Frommel et al . suggest that \"since the Baltic Sea is naturally high in p CO 2 , its fish stocks may be adapted to conditions predicted in ocean acidification scenarios for centuries to come.\""
## [2020] "With respect to the bottom-line result of final seed yield , this parameter was determined to be 0.98 g/plant in the control treatment (ambient CO 2 , with UV-B).?? Doubling the CO 2 concentration increased yield by 25.5% to 1.23 g/plant.?? Alternatively, removing the UV-B radiation flux increased yield by 91.8% to 1.88 g/plant.?? Doing both (doubling the CO 2 concentration while simultaneously removing the UV-B flux) increased final seed yield most of all, by 175.5% to 2.7 g/plant.?? Viewed from a different perspective, doubling the air's CO 2 concentration in the presence of the UV-B radiation flux enhanced final seed yield by 25.5%, while doubling CO 2 in the absence of the UV-B radiation flux increased seed yield by 43.6%. What it means"
## [2021] "Stein's claims that \"when CO2 levels have risen, so have global temperatures\" or that the world has been warming rapidly are refuted by geological history, U.S. temperature records since the end of the Little Ice Age, satellite data and the most recent warming pause. Most scientists agree that a doubling of carbon dioxide would only raise temperature about 1 degree unless there is increased climate sensitivity, which has not been demonstrated. Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)keeps reducing its \"estimate\" of sensitivity. The real issue is sensitivity; not carbon dioxide levels ."
## [2022] "???Using gas exchange theory, we predict that the 14% increase in atmospheric CO 2 (19822010) led to a 5 to 10% increase in green foliage cover in warm, arid environments. Satellite observations, analysed to remove the effect of variations in rainfall, show that cover across these environments has increased by 11%.??"
## [2023] "Elevated CO 2 reduced evapotranspiration by 7% in ecosystems established upon acidic soils; but it did not significantly affect ecosystem evapotranspiration rates on calcareous soils. Nonetheless, elevated CO 2 increased water-use efficiency (new leaf biomass produced per unit of water consumed by the ecosystem) on both soil types. Indeed, in the low soil nitrogen regime, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment increased ecosystem water-use efficiency by approximately 19%, regardless of soil type; while in the high soil nitrogen regime, it increased water-use efficiency by 14 and 25% on the acidic and calcareous soils, respectively. What it means"
## [2024] "Contrary to the contention of the IPCC, real-world data from Argentina and the United States, as well as many other countries (see Temperature ( Variability ) in our Subject Index), demonstrate that global warming is generally accompanied by a decrease in temperature extremes, which for agriculture is a positive development. References"
## [2025] "An overlooked study suggests that evidence from the Great Barrier Reef in Australia points to corals being strengthened, not weakened, by rising temperatures."
## [2026] "In fact, he later admitted this bleaching had a minimal impact and his team was genuinely surprised/relieved about how quickly some of these coral colonies had recovered. In 2007, he warned temperature changes were again bleaching the reef."
## [2027] "However, I do not believe the earths climate is dominated by strong positive feedbacks and tipping points. It is this feedback hypothesis in climate models that multiplies warming to 3-4-5 degrees or more over the next century. In climate models, the catastrophe comes from feedback, not greenhouse effects, and I think this is a bad hypothesis. Believers in catastrophic warming have an interesting problem reconciling Manns hockey stick, which points to incredible stability in temperatures, with a hypothesis of very high positive feedback, which should make temperatures skittish and volatile. I also think that the hypothesis that aerosols are masking substantial amounts of warming is weak, and appears to be more wishful thinking to bail out model builders than solid science (while there is some cooling effect, the area of effect is local and shouldnt have a substantial effect on global averages)."
## [2028] "In modern conditions the overwhelming thermostatic influence of the two giant atmospheric heat-sinksthe oceans and outer spacedampens the already small direct warming from a doubling of CO2."
## [2029] "The three Canadian researchers say their findings demonstrate that \"increased CO 2 will not have direct negative effects on all marine invertebrates, suggesting that predictions of biotic responses to climate should consider how different types of organisms will respond to changing climatic variables.\" Indeed, they clearly state -- and without equivocation -- that \"responses to anthropogenic climate change, including ocean acidification, will not always be negative,\" as is also indicated by the results of numerous studies archived under the headings of Calcification and Marine Biota in our Subject Index. Reviewed 19 August 2009"
## [2030] "The three Finnish researchers report that \"higher production temperature induced a positive maternal effect resulting in faster hatching and indicating that the mothers can invest more in their eggs, and therefore produce better quality eggs.\" In addition, they further note, in this regard, that the similar studies of Karell et al . (2008) and Jonasdottir et al . (2009) showed how \"the egg quality in terms of maternal immunological or nutritional provisioning improved,\" and they suggest that this phenomenon may explain \"the declining effect of pH difference on egg hatching.\" What it means"
## [2031] "Roughly speaking, the business-as-usual warming from all greenhouse gases in a century is the same as the warming to be expected from a doubling of CO2 concentration. Yet at present the entire interval of warming rates that might have been caused by us falls well below the least value in the predicted climate-sensitivity interval C."
## [2032] "Carbon dioxide present in the oceans is essential to plant life and current very low levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the ocean are limiting plant growth. All animal life depends on these plants. Mans mining and industrial activities are harmlessly recycling some of this valuable carbon dioxide from natural limestones and hydrocarbons buried in the dead lithosphere, back to the living biosphere."
## [2033] "What we demonstrated in our JGR paper earlier this year is that when cloud changes cause temperature changes, it gives the illusion of positive cloud feedback even if strongly negative cloud feedback is really operating!"
## [2034] "It is pertinent to ask whether any experiments have been performed to suggest whether life could thrive at higher CO 2 concentrations. Pine and aspen trees grown at the University of Michigans biological station at Pellston, were found to respond dramatically to elevated CO 2 levels. They grew 30% faster than normal trees at about double the normal CO 2 level (700 ppm) ( 20 )."
## [2035] "3. Due to this strong negative-feedback, global climatesensitivity is only 0.41 K/(W m-2) - HALF the 0.8 K/(W/m2) + assumed by the IPCC"
## [2036] "The IPCC says it is near certain that we caused at least half of that warming say, 0.65 C/century equivalent. If the IPCC and the much-tampered temperature records are right, and if there has been no significant downward pressure on global temperatures from natural forcings, we have been causing global warming at an unremarkable central rate of less than two-thirds of a Celsius degree per century."
## [2037] "There are reasons to assume that marine life will not be overly affected by an increase in ocean acidity due to atmospheric carbon dioxide:"
## [2038] "Elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 also enable plants to better withstand the growth-retarding effects of various environmental stresses, including soil salinity, air pollution, high and low air temperatures, and air-borne and soil-borne plant pathogens. In fact, atmospheric CO2 enrichment can actually mean the difference between life and death for vegetation growing in extremely stressful circumstances. In light of these facts, it is not surprising that Earths natural and managed ecosystems have already benefited immensely from the increase in atmospheric CO2 that has accompanied the progression of the Industrial Revolution; and they will further prosper from future CO2 increases."
## [2039] "UPDATE (1:20 pm. CDT 5/13/11): Since the issue of deep ocean warming (below 700 m depth) has been raised in the comments section, I have re-run the forcing-feedback model for the following two observations: 1) a net 50 year warming of 0.06 deg. C for the 0-2000 meter layer, and (2) a surface warming of 0.6 deg. C over the same period. The results suggest a net feedback parameter of 3 W m-2 K-1, which corresponds to a climate sensitivity of 1.3 deg. C from 2XCO2, which is below the 1.5 deg. C lower limit the IPCC has placed on future warming."
## [2040] "Most of the warming in forecasts (2/3 or more in the IPCC cases) comes from positive feedback in #3, but we really know nothing here, except that most systems are driven by negative feedback. In other words, this is so unsettled we dont even know the sign of the effect. ( Video here )"
## [2041] "A very recent extensive study of the Great Barrier Reef concluded that the changes forecast under the business as usual greenhouse gas emissions were unlikely to cause great harm to the reef."
## [2042] "???The coral reef system at the Papua New Guinea vent site is an algae-dominated one with few species of corals,?? says Barkley. ???We see responses much like those shown in many lab experiments at some of the other naturally low pH coral reef sites as well, particularly lower calcium carbonate production. But we don??t see the same responses across all of the sites, especially not at the coral reefs in Palau Rock Islands. The coral communities there are thriving, except for higher rates of bioerosion.??"
## [2043] "The big lie peddled by the UN is the notion that a doubling of CO2 concentration will cause as much as 2-4.5 C of global warming. In fact, according to a stream of recent papers in the peer-reviewed journals, it will cause more like 0.5-0.8 C of warming. That is all and it is harmless."
## [2044] "As the atmospheric CO2 concentration has grown since the 1700??s coral reef extension rates have also trended upwards. This is contrary to the theory that increased atmospheric CO2 should reduce the calcium carbonate saturation in the oceans, thus reducing reef calcification. It??s a similar enigma to the calcification rates of coccoliths and otoliths."
## [2045] "Elevated CO 2 increased rates of net photosynthesis in 74% of the reviewed studies. Some of the non-responsive observations were made late in the growing season when senescence was occurring. The CO 2 -induced increases in photosynthesis led to increases in total biomass ranging from 22 to 90% and averaging 33%, in spite of the fact that several of the studies were performed when environmental stresses and resource limitations made growing conditions less-than-optimal for this genus. In addition, elevated CO 2 reduced stomatal conductance and water loss in the majority of studies. What it means"
## [2046] "\"Based on the above analysis,\" in the words of the three researchers, \"it is likely that the observed decrease in stress response was the result of acclimatization of the coral/algal holobionts (Berkelmans et al ., 2004; Maynard et al ., 2008) or an influx of thermo-tolerant colonies between 2002 and 2007.\" And providing further support for their conclusions, they note that several \"similar decreases in susceptibility to thermal stress have been documented between successive bleaching events, including between 1991 and 1994 at Moorea Island (Adjeroud et al ., 2002), between 1998 and 2002 on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia (Maynard et al ., 2008), and between 1982-83 and 1997-98 in Panama (Glynn et al ., 2001), Costa Rica (Jimenez et al ., 2001), and at the Galapagos Islands (Podesta and Glynn, 2001).\""
## [2047] "Near-future reductions in pH will have no consistent ecological effects on the early life-history stages of reef corals"
## [2048] "The authors of this new study were able to reveal a dimension of plant-environment feedbacks, which is currently insufficiently investigated and described for the response of plants to future CO2 concentrations, and that dimension reveals a promising future for Earths plant life?? Read More"
## [2049] "In conducting their experiments, the three researchers determined that \"primary polyp growth was reduced only marginally by more acidic seawater,\" but they state that \"the combined effect of high temperature and lowered pH caused a significant reduction in growth of primary polyps by almost a third.\" Nevertheless, they report that \"survival and settlement of planula larvae were unaffected by increased temperature, lowered acidity or the combination of both.\""
## [2050] "Perhaps Idsos final conclusion should make all those who fear that global warming and increased CO2 is adding to the demise of the planet that everything is going to be OK: he claimed it is far more likely that CO2 proliferation will increase regional biodiversity and will contribute to the expansion and proliferation of animal habitats."
## [2051] "Microbial mass increases. Another team of Japanese scientists examined how the beneficial soil microbial biomass beneath the rice plants was impacted by elevated CO2. Li et al. reported Elevated significantly increased microbial biomass carbon in the surface 5 cm soil when N (90 kg ha-1) was in sufficient supply."
## [2052] "The two Australian researchers report that after a 4-week incubation period under various experimental conditions, negative effects on juvenile development and growth were only observed at a pH of 7.2 (a decrease of one full unit), which was brought about by pCO 2 values in the range of 4430-4600 atm."
## [2053] "The results of this study are very encouraging. For the standard 300-ppm increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration we use to express the effects of elevated CO 2 on plant photosynthesis , they indicate that this important plant process is stimulated by close to 42% in ambient air and 34% in ozone-polluted air for typical growing-season air temperature and soil moisture conditions experienced at the SoyFACE facility, while for both warmer and drier conditions, the CO 2 -induced photosynthetic enhancements are greater still. Reviewed 3 January 2007"
## [2054] "Williams et al . conclude, in their words, that \"the 60% increase in root growth during the 8-year study was the likely catalyst for the greater potentially mineralizable soil C pools in the enriched CO 2 treatment,\" and that this finding \"confirms that C can accrue in soils under elevated CO 2 .\" In their specific study, for example, they determined that the total amount of extra new carbon sequestered in the soil due to their doubling of the air's CO 2 concentration was 4 Mg C ha -1 over the 8-year period, for an annual rate of extra (CO 2 -induced) carbon sequestration of 0.5 Mg ha -1 year -1 . Reviewed 22 February 2006"
## [2055] "At a fundamental level, carbon dioxide is the basis of nearly all life on Earth, as it is the primary raw material or food that is utilized by plants to produce the organic matter out of which they construct their tissues."
## [2056] "It might well be that the limited radiosonde evidence we have of lower tropospheric moistening and upper tropospheric drying (e.g. Paltridge et al., 2009 ) is telling us that water vapor feedback is not positive, as is currently assumed in climate models. This is basically the reason why Miskolczi (2010) found a constant greenhouse effect?? that the observed decrease in upper tropospheric humidity (which is controversial from an observational standpoint) just offset the warming caused by increasing CO2."
## [2057] "Positive feedback in engineering invariably results in unstable systems so we have to ask why do most if not all of the climate models rely on it to get doomsday predictions? For the Earth to have survived as long as it has with a stable climate, through major events like ice-ages or volcanic eruptions, there is little doubt that a degree of negative climate feedback is essential."
## [2058] "And so we discover yet another positive impact of CO 2 -induced ocean acidification on Earth's marine life in which the \"harmful effects of UVR on C. curvisetus could be counteracted.\""
## [2059] "To describe carbon dioxide as a lethal air pollutant is an irresponsible lie it is surprising to see such rubbish in print. Carbon dioxide is the most important and essential atmospheric plant food, without which there would be no plants, no herbivores (which live on plants), and no carnivores (which live on herbivores)."
## [2060] "In regard to their self-imposed question - \"which factor (temperature or CO 2 ) would have a greater effect under a climate change scenario?\" - Garrua-Hernandez et al . say their present results suggest that \"a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 levels in tropical-subtropical regions would promote positive changes in plants that could mitigate any deterioration caused by higher temperature, as long as this factor does not reach extremely stressful levels.\" And they add that \"under greenhouse conditions, the present results are promising since maximum temperature can be controlled, preventing any detrimental effects, while high CO 2 levels can be applied to accelerate phenological states, increase the number of flowers and fruit, and consequently improve fruit yields.\" Reference"
## [2061] "The three researchers conclude their report by speculating that elevated atmospheric CO 2 was effective for the survival and rooting of the majority of the cutting branches \"because of its promoting photosynthetic activity in plants and possible synthesis of root promoting factors.\" Whatever the reason, their observations certainly suggest that atmospheric CO 2 enrichment might well figure prominently in propagating commercially-important woody plants in the not-too-distant future. Reviewed 22 July 2009"
## [2062] "The authors of this study conclude that the coccolithophorid they studied ???could adapt to ocean acidification with enhanced assimilations of carbon and nitrogen,?? becoming even more productive than it is now, which is yet another positive finding of the often feared consequence of Earth??s rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration?? Read More"
## [2063] "More importantly, down to a pH of 7.2 (10 times more acidic), no measurable effect was found and no loss of biodiversity. Thus a doubling (pH=7.9) or quadrupling (pH=7.6) of CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere is not going to have any measurable effect on marine life."
## [2064] "Now, as you can see from Figure 2, the Kiehl hypothesis of cancellation has a big problem. The CERES results do not bear out Kiehl??s claims in the slightest. Instead, they support my hypothesis that increased tropical clouds cool the surface. As you can see, on average the loss from the reflected sunlight is about 20% or so greater than the gain from increased IR. This means that there is no cancellation. Instead, the clouds have a net cooling effect."
## [2065] "Unlike carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and other pollutants, carbon dioxide is not toxic. In fact, it is an essential ingredient in plant photosynthesis, without which there would be no life on earth. For the past century, greenhouse operators have been adding CO 2 to the air inside greenhouses to enhance plant growth."
## [2066] "Independent climate researcher Nick Lewis put out a study last year with Georgia Techs Dr. Judith Curry that found that the climates response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 levels a measurement called climate sensitivity was 1.64 degrees Celsius."
## [2067] "Can there then be too much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, as some would have it? Hardly, since green leaves and phytoplankton love CO2. As it is said, leaves are busy. Green leaves take in carbon dioxide and produce oxygen as a by-product. This is a well-known biological fact. What is not so well known is it that the enormous masses of the many different types of phytoplankton in the oceans are also actively producing Oxygen. This is the great carbon cycle, produced by Great Nature!"
## [2068] "The tiny effect of rising CO2 levels on climate contrasts sharply with their enormous benefits to plant growth and agriculture. Not only is more CO2 greening deserts, forests and grasslands; it is increasing grain and food yields worldwide, and helping people in developing nations live longer, healthier lives."
## [2069] "Therefore, just as cold weather is known to lead to the deaths of far more people than is hot weather around the world (see Health Effects (Temperature - Hot vs. Cold Weather) in our Subject Index), and in light of the fact that daily minimum temperatures have historically risen considerably more than have daily maximum temperatures during periods of global warming (see Temperature (Diurnal Range) in our Subject Index), it can be appreciated that both humans and corals -- together with their symbionts -- may well have little to fear if temperatures begin to rise again."
## [2070] "A particularly ingenious way by which almost any adaptive response to any type of environmental stress may be enhanced in the face of the occurrence of that stress would be to replace the zooxanthellae expelled by the coral host during a stress-induced bleaching episode by one or more varieties of zooxanthellae that are more tolerant of the stress that caused the bleaching."
## [2071] "In the words of the researchers, \"net primary productivity in this stand has been significantly higher in CO 2 -enriched plots, and the response has been sustained through time, thereby meeting one of the criteria for the development of PNL.\" However , as they report, \" none of the measured responses of plant N dynamics in this ecosystem indicated the occurrence of PNL.\" What it means"
## [2072] "Quoting the six scientists, \"after 7 weeks, plants grown under an elevated CO 2 concentration showed an increase of 77% in photosynthesis, 56% in tillering, 104% in leaf area, 92% in height and 91% in total biomass.\" In addition, they say that the CO 2 -enriched plants \"also had a lower stomatal conductance (-40%) and higher water use efficiency (62%).\""
## [2073] "At the same time crop yields are going up by 10, 15, 20 percent per decade due to technological change,' he continued. 'So, it's not the case that climate change will cause life-threatening famine; instead, climate change will mean that crop yields will go up more slowly.'"
## [2074] "However, an analysis of some of the calamities reported in doom and gloom media accounts (e.g., table 1) shows someat times, severedisconnect with actual observations. For instance, there is no evidence that ocean acidification has killed jellyfish predators, nor that jellyfish are taking over the ocean, and predictions that the killer algae, Caulerpa taxifolia, was going to devastate the Mediterranean ecosystem have not been realized, despite claims to the contrary from the media (table 1). It may be, therefore, that some of the calamities composing the syndrome of collapse of coastal ecosystems may not be as severe as is portrayed in some accounts."
## [2075] "In the concluding paragraph of their paper, Foo et al . affirm that \"the presence of tolerant genotypes, and the lack of a trade-off between tolerance to pH and tolerance to warming contribute to the potential of C. rodgersii to adapt to concurrent ocean warming and acidification, adding to the resilience of this ecologically important species in a changing ocean.\" References"
## [2076] "To us in the Stars goose-pimpled traveling party, it appears that the polar bears are going to keep their habitat after all."
## [2077] "???As shown in the accompanying figure, the d11B-derived pH values for the South China Sea fluctuated between a pH of 7.91 and 8.29 during the past seven thousand years, revealing a large natural fluctuation in this parameter that is nearly four times the 0.1 pH unit decline the acidification alarmists predict should have occurred since pre-industrial times.??"
## [2078] "As the air's CO 2 content rises, potatoes will likely display an increase in their water-use efficiency , due in part to reductions in stomatal conductance and increases in rates of net photosynthesis. Thus, it is likely that potatoes will be able to better deal with water stress in the future. In addition, it is also possible that potatoes could be grown in more arid regions if the air's CO 2 content rises."
## [2079] "In commenting on their findings, Comeau et al . state that \"the increased resistance of Acropora hyacinthus exposed to large pCO 2 oscillation (particularly in the 400-2000-oscillating treatment) compared to the response of corals under constant pCO 2 conditions suggests that reef corals may be more resistant to future ocean acidification conditions in locations where diel variation in seawater pCO 2 is pronounced.\""
## [2080] "We have two new entries to the long (and growing) list of papers appearing the in recent scientific literature that argue that the earths climate sensitivitythe ultimate rise in the earths average surface temperature from a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide contentis close to 2C, or near the low end of the range of possible values presented by the U.N.s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). With a low-end warming comes low-end impacts and an overall lack of urgency for federal rules and regulations (such as those outlined in the Presidents Climate Action Plan) to limit carbon dioxide emissions and limit our energy choices."
## [2081] "The three Indian researchers conclude that \" C. ciliaris grown in elevated CO 2 throughout the crop season may produce more fodder in terms of green biomass,\" which is a colossal understatement, to say the least; especially when a 240-ppm increase in the air's CO 2 concentration leads to a 193% increase in dry matter production (which translates into a 242% increase in dry matter productivity for the more standard 300-ppm increase in CO 2 by which we index worldwide study results in our Plant Growth Databases . Surely, such a response will be an enormous boon to the many people living in the arid and semi-arid tropics in the years and decades to come, as the air's CO 2 content continues its upward climb. Reviewed 8 August 2007"
## [2082] "A pollutant must be something that is not only emitted, but something that renders the air impure, which can hardly be said of carbon dioxide."
## [2083] "Teira et al .'s final words on the implications of their findings are that the responses of both marine bacterial families \"would tend to increase the pH of seawater, acting as a negative feedback between elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and ocean acidification.\" And, of course, they also reveal the identities of two more sets of marine organisms that are in no way threatened by the seawater pH changes induced by the historical and still-ongoing rise in the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration."
## [2084] "In the words of the researchers, \"contrary to expectations, this US Corn Belt summer climate appeared to cause sufficient water stress under ambient CO 2 to allow the ameliorating effects of elevated CO 2 to significantly enhance leaf net CO 2 assimilation.\" Hence, they conclude that \"this response of Z. mays to elevated CO 2 indicates the potential for greater future crop biomass and harvestable yield across the US Corn Belt.\" References"
## [2085] "Nor are we alone in concluding that climate sensitivity will be small. The following is a non-exhaustive list of papers in the reviewed journals of climate and related sciences concluding that climate sensitivity will be less than the canonical interval 3.0 K (Charney, J., Nat. Acad. Sci., 1979; IPCC, 2013):"
## [2086] "Laboratory experiments find that more marine creatures thrive than suffer when carbon dioxide lowers the pH level to 7.8. This is because the carbon dioxide dissolves mainly as bicarbonate, which many calcifiers use as raw material for carbonate."
## [2087] "As a general rule, a 300 ppm increase in CO2 improves the productivity of herbaceous plants by 30-50% and of woody plants by 50-80%. Many plants respond even better. For example, lentils, peas and other legumes grown with 700 ppm carbon dioxide improved their total biomass by 91%, their edible parts yield by 150 % and their fodder yield by 67%, compared to similar crops grown at 370 ppm carbon dioxide, Indian researchers found."
## [2088] "the panic-evoking extinction-predicting paradigms of the past are rapidly giving way to the realization they bear little resemblance to reality. Earths plant and animal species are not slip-sliding away even slowly into the netherworld of extinction that is preached from the pulpit of climate alarmism as being caused by CO2-induced global warming."
## [2089] "A new U.S. Geological Survey study predicts where 50 bird species will breed, feed and live in the conterminous U.S. by 2075. While some types of birds, like the Bairds sparrow, will likely lose a significant amount of their current U.S. range, other ranges could nearly double. Human activity will drive many of these shifts. The study was published today in the journal PLOS ONE ."
## [2090] "Since humans began adding CO2 to the planets atmosphere, taking plants off their starvation rations by creating a planet-wide greenhouse, plants have thrived. Data from NASA satellites, which since the early 1980s have been tracking the amount of biota on Earth, vividly demonstrate the results. As CO2 emissions grew in leaps and bounds, so did plants the data shows planet Earth is now greener than when those satellite measurements began."
## [2091] "In the words of the authors, \"acorns from CO 2 springs contained significantly higher sulphur concentrations than controls (0.67 vs. 0.47 mg g -1 dry weight in Q. ilex cotyledons and 1.10 vs. 0.80 in Q. pubescens ),\" indicative of the fact that the trees were indeed significantly affected by the H 2 S- and SO 2 -enriched air in the vicinity of the CO 2 -emitting springs. They also report that Q. ilix seedlings grown from CO 2 spring acorns showed elevated rates of chromosomal aberrations in root tips, suggestive of the presence of a permanent stress. Nevertheless, as demonstrated by the results of several studies conducted on mature trees from these sites, the CO 2 -enriched air - even in the presence of significantly elevated concentrations of phytotoxic H 2 S and SO 2 - tremendously enhanced the trees' photosynthetic prowess: by 26-69% ( Blaschke et al ., 2001 ), 36-77% ( Stylinski et al ., 2000 ), and a whopping 175-510% ( Tognetti et al ., 1998 ). What it means"
## [2092] "Listing the bears under the Endangered Species Act is the wrong move at this time. My decision is based on a comprehensive review by state wildlife officials of scientific information from a broad range of climate, ice and polar bear experts."
## [2093] "Er, no, it cant. Im not sure that even the holy books of IPeCaC have ever suggested that runaway temperature feedback is even a possibility. In any event, elementary considerations in the mathematics of feedback amplification make runaway feedback an impossibility."
## [2094] "Scientists looked at 13 polar bear subpopulations and found \"much of the scientific evidence indicating that some polar bear subpopulations are declining due to climate change-mediated sea ice reductions is likely flawed by poor markrecapture sampling.\" This means researchers aren't able to put together accurate \"demographic parameters.\""
## [2095] "As the atmosphere's CO2 concentration continues to rise, most plants tend to exhibit increased rates of photosynthesis and biomass production, including those of various grassland ecosystems. This increase in productivity should increase the amount of forage available for grazing animals and possibly reduce the land area occupied by bare soil in certain environments. However, some people claim that global warming will negate the growth-promoting effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment and actually stimulate the opposite process of desertification. This summary thus seeks to develop an answer to this important question by reviewing published scientific studies of the photosynthetic and growth responses of grassland plants to atmospheric CO2 enrichment when exposed to higher-than-normal temperatures."
## [2096] "86. The historical increase in the airs CO2 content has improved human nutrition by raising crop yields during the past 150 years on the order of 70 percent for wheat, 28 percent for cereals, 33 percent for fruits and melons, 62 percent for legumes, 67 percent for root and tuber crops, and 51 percent for vegetables."
## [2097] "Ordinarily, she added, without fresh air coming in, it would become harder and harder for living things to thrive, ???yet in the case of the corals in Palau, we??re finding the opposite. Coral cover and diversity actually increase from the outer reefs into the Rock Islands.??"
## [2098] "The IPCC report has failed to report on the implications of the real world radiative imbalance being significantly smaller than the radiative forcing. This means not only that the net radiative feedbacks must be negative, but they failed to document the magnitude in Watts per meter squared of the contributions to positive feedbacks from surface warming, and from atmospheric water vapor and clouds."
## [2099] "* Polar bears are drowning because a warming planet is melting the Arctic. Fact: Four bears drowned during a particularly violent storm, and polar bear populations are actually increasing in Alaska and Canada."
## [2100] "Pansch et al . report that over a period of 20 weeks, the survival, growth, reproduction and shell strength of Kiel barnacles \"were all unaffected by p CO 2 , regardless of food availability,\" and that \"larval development and juvenile growth of the F1 generation were tolerant to increased p CO 2 , irrespective of parental treatment.\" In contrast, they report that \"elevated p CO 2 had a strong negative impact on survival of Tjarno barnacles,\" with specimens from this population being \"able to withstand moderate levels of elevated p CO 2 over five weeks when food was plentiful,\" but which \"showed reduced growth under food limitation.\" In addition, they found that \"severe levels of elevated p CO 2 negatively impacted the growth of Tjarno barnacles in both food treatments.\" What it means"
## [2101] "As the CO 2 content of the air rises, it is still unclear as to how antioxidizing enzymes in sugar maple seedlings will respond to the uptake of ozone, as some specific antioxidants exhibit increases in their activities while others display decreases. Likewise, without any photosynthetic or growth data, it is difficult to determine whether or not changes in antioxidizing enzymes are truly occurring to the benefit or the detriment of the plant. Thus, further research is needed to reach any solid conclusions on this topic with respect to sugar maple seedlings. However, elevated CO 2 has been demonstrated to decrease oxidative stress in other species (see our Journal Reviews on the Effects of Lifetime Exposure to Elevated CO 2 on Antioxidative Enzymes in Mature Oak Trees and the Effects of Elevated CO 2 and Nitrogen Supply on Antioxidative Enzymes in Beech Seedlings )."
## [2102] "In the words of Fiorini et al ., \"our results confirm that the expected 3??C increase in the present seawater temperature will not strongly affect the physiology of this eurythermal species,\" and that \"the effect of an elevated pCO 2 in seawater will not be significant on calcification or on the PIC:POC ratio in either life stage.\" And this no real news is definitely real good news for life in the world's oceans."
## [2103] "The pH needs to be less than 7 to be acid, and this has not happened through at least the past 600 million years because it would dissolve limestones, and limestone have been deposited in the sea and not re-dissolved in the sea through all that time."
## [2104] "A great number of coral populations across the globe have been steadily declining due to the adverse effects of climate change. The NOAA even recently recognized 20 different types of coralas threatened species due to notable decline. However, some coral have found themselves an ally. Mangroves appear to be harboring a great number of coral species, protecting them from things like ocean acidification and elevated temperatures."
## [2105] "Range et al. (2012) : There is no evidence of carbon dioxide-related mortalities of juvenile or adult mussels even under conditions that far exceed the worst-case scenarios for future ocean acidification."
## [2106] "The authors state that heavy metal pollution in agricultural soils is receiving ever more attention, citing Tang (2006) and the IPCC (2007), while noting that China possesses more than 130 km 2 of cadmium (Cd) contaminated soil due to wastewater discharge from mining operations and industrial emissions, citing Xiong et al . (2004) and Yu and Zhou (2009). And knowing of the ability of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment to enhance plant growth and increase the amounts of various substances they extract from the soil, they decided to conduct a study of the potential for this phenomenon to serve as a means of phytoremediation of Cd-contaminated soils ."
## [2107] "It says damage to the marine food chain will result from the increasing acidity of the oceans, but the oceans are pronouncedly alkaline and, in any event, estuarial studies show calcifying organisms such as corals thriving even along coasts where rainwater that is pronouncedly acid pours into the sea. The corals survived a 1000-year period 55 million years ago when the entire ocean actually became acid. But the Pope doesnt care."
## [2108] "We have even more dramatic evidence of creatures moving to stay at the right temperatures from the city of York, England. Excavations under the city find that the nettle ground bug was common in York during the Roman occupation in the first century, and during the Medieval Warming. In between those warm times, it has typically been found in the much-warmer south of England."
## [2109] "Kullman notes that the rapidity with which the observed ecosystem transformations have occurred \"contrasts with earlier assumptions and theoretical generalizations, stressing significant time-lags or inertial adaptations to changed climatic conditions.\" Indeed, his results demonstrate the tremendous capacity for earth's vegetation to rapidly respond to climate change in dramatic ways that need not result in species extinctions, but that can lead to huge increases in ecosystem species richness, which is typically considered to be a desirable property of vegetative assemblages. References"
## [2110] "The four Chinese researchers report that elevated CO 2 by itself \"did not significantly affect net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, chlorophyll content, the maximum quantum yield of photosystem II, or the effective quantum yield of photosystem II electron transport after 90 days of gas exposure.\" But they did find that it increased growth . Elevated O 3 by itself, on the other hand, \"decreased growth, net photosynthetic rate and stomatal conductance after 90 days of exposure,\" but they say that \"its negative effects were alleviated by elevated CO 2 .\""
## [2111] "If that turns out to be true, then the actual sensitivity to CO2 doubling would be far less than the 2C to 5C or more projected by the IPCC. Indeed it could be 0.5C, or even less. As current CO2 levels are about 390 ppmv we are about 40% to a doubling from historic 280 ppmv levels, the actual temperature rise due to the human component of AGW could be 0.2C."
## [2112] "The world's boreal forests like rising carbon dioxide levels. Once again the dire warnings of the climate catastrophists have been shown to be exaggerated at best, and often just plain wrong. Rising CO 2 levels make forests grow faster, be more productive and actually use water more efficiently. Those are good things to rational people. This report also shows that when you actually measure what is happening in the environment, instead of using computer models, nature can surprise you. In other words, measure nature and real science happens. Be safe, enjoy the interglacial and stay skeptical."
## [2113] "Range et al. (2012) : There is no evidence of CO2-related mortalities of juvenile or adult mussels even under conditions that far exceed the worst-case scenarios for future ocean acidification."
## [2114] "Jerry North told me just last week that he is more convinced than ever that the warming is at the very bottom of the IPCC range, which some top climate economists say makes CO2 a positive externality, not a negative one. We have peer-reviewed articles on how feedback effects are not the big amplifiers that the models (must) assume."
## [2115] "As the CO 2 concentration of the air continues to rise, it is likely that this invasive mite, which negatively affects more than 150 crop species, will exhibit reduced reproductive success and subsequent colonization of bean foliage. If these results are typical of the mite's relationship with other agricultural plants, it is conceivable that yields of many crops will increase dramatically due to CO 2 -induced increases in plant growth and yield and concomitant decreases in damage caused by Tetranychus urticae ."
## [2116] "The four Australian researchers report that \"significant genotype by environment interactions for both stressors at gastrulation indicated the presence of heritable variation in thermal tolerance and the ability of embryos to respond to changing environments.\" And they say that \"positive genetic correlations for gastrulation indicated that genotypes that did well at lower pH also did well in higher temperatures.\" What it means"
## [2117] "No evidence exists for this claim. The mass-bleaching events of recent decades have coincided with surface water warming resulting from periods of extended calm associated with strong El Nio events. This impedes normal evaporative cooling as well as wave driven mixing. There is no evidence of any increase in the frequency or strength of El Nio events, and climate models project increased wind speeds from warming, not more calms. The report further states:"
## [2118] "As the air's CO 2 content increases, it is likely that over-wintering strawberry plants will exhibit enhanced rates of photosynthesis and starch production, which will support more rapid and extensive growth in the spring. Such increases in carbohydrate availability at this critical time should allow strawberry plants in a CO 2 -enriched world to produce greater numbers of fruit per plant, thus increasing marketable berry yields."
## [2119] "All of the above findings are of a positive nature. Crop growth was enhanced by the experimental doubling of the air's CO 2 content. There was no increase in the evolution of the greenhouse gas N 2 O from the soil. And the three Finnish researchers concluded that the high increase in the below-ground biomass indicates \"enhanced photosynthate accumulation in the soil as a response to the increased CO 2 concentration.\" Reviewed 24 October 2007"
## [2120] "Sheppard et al . write that \"given that examples of reefs without local impacts are rare, these results illustrate the importance of reference sites such as this that lack local, direct effects,\" and as we have long contended, Sheppard et al .'s findings indicate that earth's corals are much better equipped to successfully rebound from thermal-induced coral bleaching events when they are not exposed to the direct deleterious localized effects of humanity, which make it much more difficult for corals to successfully recover from periodic exposure to dangerously high temperatures. Hence, it would seem to us that if we want to preserve earth's corals in the face of possible further global warming -- about which we can really do nothing -- our focus should be on trying to reduce the many deleterious local effects of humanity on coral reef environments, about which we can do something ... but only if we really put our minds, mouths and money to it. Reviewed 1 October 2008"
## [2121] "Jennifer Marohasy: Ocean Acidification: Photographs from Bob Halstead and a Note from Floor Anthoni The shallows near Dobu Island off Papua and New Guinea have active underwater fumaroles pumping out virtually pure CO2. The sea grass is extraordinarily lush and healthy and there is very healthy coral reef a few metres away."
## [2122] "Good numbers of polar bears are showing up in and around the Churchill area"
## [2123] "As the CO 2 content of the air rises ever higher, soybean plants should maintain higher rates of photosynthesis than they do now, even in the presence of environmental stresses including high temperature, water deficit or both of these growth-reducing phenomena. Of all environmental stresses, water stress may be the most important, as water limits the growth of plants in many areas around the globe. The results of this research suggest that, in the words of the authors, \"the deleterious effects of short-term water deficit on the rate of leaf carbon assimilation in future climates of elevated CO 2 could be rather less than at the present.\" And it is just such a phenomenon that may allow plants of the future to recover quicker, following periods of water stress, and bring them back to an enhanced level of photosynthetic activity that allows them to sequester even greater quantities of carbon from the air than they do today. Reviewed 15 December 1998"
## [2124] "In light of these several positive findings, Ginger et al . concluded that \"larval and post-larval forms of the C. gigas in the Yellow Sea are probably resistant to elevated CO 2 and decreased near-future pH scenarios.\" In fact, they opine that \"the pre-adapted ability to resist a wide range of decreased pH may provide C. gigas with the necessary tolerance to withstand rapid pH changes over the coming century.\" Reviewed 16 October 2013"
## [2125] "The four researchers concluded that the phenomena they observed \"may contribute to nutritional feedback mechanisms to sustain tree growth when nutrients become limiting,\" such as some have hypothesized might occur over time in trees growing on low-fertility soils in CO 2 -enriched air (see Nitrogen (Progressive Limitation Hypothesis) in our Subject Index). The findings of this study, however, as well as those of the study of de Graaff et al . (2009) -- which was published in the same issue of Soil Biology & Biochemistry -- clearly indicate that earth's plants are well equipped to deal with this hypothetical roadblock to higher plant productivity in a CO 2 -enriched world of the future. Reference"
## [2126] "In discussing the findings of their experiment, Hikami et al . say that the upward trend in the calcification of C. gaudichaudii in response to ocean acidification \"can probably be attributed to the increase in CO 2 , possibly through enhancement of symbiont photosynthesis, a phenomenon known as the CO 2 -fertilizing effect,\" citing Ries et al . (2009), although the concept was first described several years earlier by Idso et al . (2000). And in discussing possible causes of the two contrasting types of calcification response to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment (positive and negative), they speculate that \"the type of symbiont influences the strength of the CO 2 -fertilizing effect.\""
## [2127] "The nitrogen factor. A team of Japanese scientists grew rice at ambient and elevated CO2 with variations in nitrogen (N) solution in the soil. The Yamakawa et al. team found that The dry matter of rice was increased by elevated CO2 and that the amount of N uptake seemed to limit rice growth. Assuming rice farmers of the future do not run out of nitrogen (which would be like running out of air), their yields will increase substantially."
## [2128] "Yet another significant paper finds low climate sensitivity to CO2, suggesting there is no global warming crisis at hand"
## [2129] "As the CO 2 content of the air increases, swards of perennial ryegrass will likely exhibit increased rates of photosynthesis and dry matter production. In addition, elevated CO 2 concentrations should favor the growth of belowground organs. Thus, the carbon sequestering prowess of grasslands dominated by perennial ryegrass is likely to increase with future increases in the air's CO 2 content."
## [2130] "In the Alaska experiment, they warmed the permafrost by 2C over a 20-yr period (10 times the actual rate of warming since the 1800s) and there wasn??t the slightest hint of an accelerated methane release."
## [2131] "In taking stock of what was found, elevated CO 2 had no negative effects and only one positive effect; but the latter was an important one on growth . Ozone, on the other hand, had multiple negative effects, but they were all alleviated by elevated CO 2 ; and these findings suggest a huge win for CO 2 in its battle with O 3 to impact the growth and development of Chinese pine trees."
## [2132] "Polar bears no longer on ???thin ice??: researchers say polar bears could face brighter future: ??? a combination of greenhouse gas mitigation and control of adverse human activities in the Arctic can lead to a more promising future for polar bear populations and their sea ice habitat ??"
## [2133] "In reality, however, there is no such widespread assumption. Rather, there is a widespread body of knowledge that there is, in fact, a remarkable \"CO 2 -induced stimulation of tropical tree growth,\" much of which body of knowledge may be found in our website's Subject Index, under the heading of Trees (Types - Tropical) . There, one may read individual reviews of 29 such publications, which together cite a total of 72 pertinent scientific papers. And one may also peruse a brief Summary - based on all but the two most recent such reviews - which concludes as follows."
## [2134] "Elevated CO 2 stimulated rates of net photosynthesis by about 60% in the well-watered seedlings. Under drought conditions, however, the relative photosynthetic stimulation increased to as much as 180%, leading to CO 2 -induced increases in seedling dry mass of 33 and 31% for well-watered and water-stressed seedlings, respectively. The larger percentage enhancement of net photosynthesis in the water-stressed seedlings essentially ameliorated the negative effect of water stress on growth. In addition, elevated CO 2 increased whole-plant water-use efficiency by 51 and 63% in the well-watered and water-stressed seedlings, respectively. This enhancement resulted solely from the CO 2 -induced increases in photosynthesis, and not from reductions in stomatal conductance or total water use. What it means"
## [2135] "It appears that the vertical profile of ocean warming could be a key ingredient in getting a better idea of how sensitive the climate system is to our greenhouse gas emissions. The results here suggests the warming has been considerably weaker than what would be expected for a sensitive climate system."
## [2136] "Similar results were recently reported by other researchers who have set out to use real world observations of the climate response to the eruption of Pinatubo to determine the climate sensitivity. David Douglass and Robert Knox from the University of Rochester, reported in Geophysical Research Letters that, based upon their calculations and their fit of the observations, that the decay time for the temperature response to Pinatubo was several times shorter than the 37 months calculated by Wigley et al. using climate models, and that the resulting climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 was only about 0.6Cfar beneath climate model estimates."
## [2137] "So, about that settled science on ocean acidification (that is actually a change to lesser alkalinity and NOT acidification) and about that settled science on CO2 in the ocean coming from the air via our burning fossil fuels Looking a bit moth eaten to me."
## [2138] "I particularly liked the ocean acidification portion. The oceans are becoming more acidic due to CO2. Acid dissolves carbonate in sea shells. The pH scale is not mentioned so, unless you were versed in the scale, you might think pH 8 is acidic. The chart of pH from 1990 to 2012(?) has a 45 downslope. You get this if the ordinate is <0.1 pH unit and the decrease is 8.11 to 8.07. Terrific chartsmanship. If you put this on a chart with the pH scale (1 to 14) as the ordinate, the line is essentially flat. You dont see much slope with an ordinate of 1 pH unit (8-0)."
## [2139] "Climate change not the cause of Caribbean coral reef die off. From the NoTricksZone , a report by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature says that the main driver for coral reef die of is the loss of the two main grazers: parrot fish and sea urchins. An unidentified disease in 1983 caused a mass die off of sea urchins and 20th century over fishing has brought the parrot fish to near extinction in some areas."
## [2140] "Polar bears no longer on ???thin ice??: researchers say polar bears could face brighter future"
## [2141] "Finally, it is a fact that people who have saltwater aquariums sometimes add CO2 to the water in order to increase coral growth and to increase plant growth. The truth is CO2 is the most important food for all life on Earth, including marine life. It is the main food for photosynthetic plankton (algae), which in turn is the food for the entire food chain in the sea."
## [2142] "More filler leads to a 30-second clip about how global warming is causing polar bears to drown because they have to swim greater distances to find sea ice on which to rest. The judge ruled however, that the polar bears in question had actually drowned because of a particularly violent storm."
## [2143] "In the case of light-saturated net photosynthesis , they found an actual stimulation provided by the extra 316 ppm of CO 2 that ranged from 31% for cultivar Drysdale to 75% for cultivar Yitpi. In the case of aboveground biomass production , they also found a CO 2 -induced stimulation. In this case, it ranged from 0% for the cultivar H45 to 133% for cultivar Gladius. And in the case of actual grain yield , the six scientists found a CO 2 -induced stimulation that ranged from 0% for cultivar H45 to 98% for cultivar Gladius, with the other five cultivars sprinkled somewhere in between."
## [2144] "The warming and drying that is predicted by climate alarmists to occur in many places would appear to be good news for largemouth bass, as well as for the people who love to fish for them and for many other types of fish, since an increase in temperature generally \"stimulates metabolism, and enhances growth rates of fishes,\" according to Rypel, who cites in this regard the studies of Beitinger and Fitzpatrick (1979) and Brander (1995). References"
## [2145] "What makes the magnitude of these shares determined? Will they remain constant? That's not safe. As a result of increasing the CO2 content of the atmosphere increases plant growth around the world gradually. Therefore, the CO2 absorption will increase by plants, but ultimately also the decomposition of dead plant parts. We can not accurately assess these developments. It may be so, that the 2% (which accumulate) gradually increase or decrease. In the latter case, the CO2 content can be constant (that is of course speculation)."
## [2146] "The theory of anthropogenic global warming is based upon the notion that increases in the minor greenhouse gasCO2 result in increases ofthe major greenhouse gaswater vapor, thereby supposedlyincreasing global warming to alarming levels of 2-5C per doubling of CO2 levels. Without this assumed and unproven positive feedback from water vapor, there is no basis for alarm. While the IPCC confidently stated in their 2007 report ,"
## [2147] "Again, there almost certainly is a warming trend since 1850, and some of that trend is probably due to manmade CO2, but sensitivities in most forecasts that get attention in the media are way too high. A tenth of a degree C per decade over the next 100 years from manmade CO2 seems a reasonable planning number."
## [2148] "As the CO 2 content of the air continues to rise, it is likely that wheat plants will exhibit significant increases in photosynthesis and yield even under less than favorable growing conditions characterized by elevated atmospheric ozone concentrations and/or pathogenic infections by rust-causing organisms. Thus, it is likely that such detrimental environmental and biotic factors will not threaten world grain production in the years to come, as long as the air's CO 2 content is allowed to increase unhindered by mankind's misguided legislative attempts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of this vital life-supporting gas."
## [2149] "The ongoing rise in the air's CO 2 content would appear to have the capacity to totally thwart the adverse growth effects of any increase in air temperature it might possibly be causing, as we describe in detail in our major report The Specter of Species Extinction: Will Global Warming Decimate Earth's Biosphere? ."
## [2150] "In some cases, the water-use efficiency increases caused by atmospheric CO2 enrichment are spectacularly high. De Luis et al. (1999) , for example, demonstrated that alfalfa plants subjected to atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 700 ppm had water-use efficiencies that were 2.6 and 4.1 times greater than those displayed by control plants growing at 400 ppm CO2 under water-stressed and well-watered conditions, respectively. Also, when grown at an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 700 ppm, a 2.7-fold increase in water-use efficiency was reported by Malmstrom and Field (1997) for oats infected with the barley yellow dwarf virus."
## [2151] "In a very long sentence, the two researchers write that \"extreme temperatures (i) can be avoided (e.g. by accelerating hatching, by moving within the egg, by cooling the egg by enhanced rates of evaporation, or by hysteresis in rates of heating versus cooling); (ii) can be tolerated (e.g. by entering diapause, by producing heat-shock proteins, or by changing oxygen use); or (iii) the embryo can adjust its physiology and/or developmental trajectory in ways that reduce the fitness penalties of unfavorable thermal conditions (e.g. by acclimating, by exploiting brief windows of favorable conditions, or by producing the hatchling phenotype best suited to those incubation conditions.\""
## [2152] "Who would have thoughtit seems that the largest mammal of North America, Ovibos moschatus or Musk Ox (actually, a big big kind of sheep) really does like it hot, even if its usually found around Canada and Greenland: to the point of disappearing from Europe, Asia and Alaska in the late XIX/early XX century due to climate change , a turn to cold that is."
## [2153] "The early estimates of polar bear abundance are a guess. There is no data at all for the 1950-60s. Nothing but guesses. We are sure the populations were being negatively affected by excess harvest (e.g., aircraft hunting, ship hunting, self-killing guns, traps, and no harvest limits). The harvest levels were huge and growing. The resulting low numbers of bears were due only to excess harvest but, again, it was simply a guess as to the number of bears."
## [2154] "The paper calculates the direct affect of CO2 (without feedback mechanism) using a line-by-line calculations of each wavelength of sunlight and using this approach they arrive at a value of direct heating of 0.45C for a doubling of CO2."
## [2155] "However, since actual CO2 production is already below IPCC forecasts, we might take a more reasonable date of 2080-2100 for a doubling to 560. And, combining this with our derived sensitivity of 1C (rather than RealClimate's 3C) we will get 0.5C more warming in the next 75-100 years. This is about the magnitude of warming we experienced in the last century, and most of us did not even notice."
## [2156] "Effects of elevated CO2 on medicinal substances found in St. John??s wort CO2science.org, July 14 2004 180% increase in the air??s CO2 content more than doubled the dry mass produced by well-watered and fertilized St. John??s wort plants, while it also more than doubled the concentrations of both hypericin and pseudohypericen."
## [2157] "The result of this undertaking, as they describe it, was their finding that even throughout the late Holocene , \"reef health and growth has fluctuated through cycles independent of anthropogenic forcing.\" Thus, they concluded -- and rightly so -- that \"degraded reef states cannot de facto be considered to automatically reflect increased anthropogenic stress,\" noting that \"in many cases degraded or non-accreting reef communities may reflect past reef growth histories as much as contemporary environmental change.\""
## [2158] "2) Furthermore heavy springtime ice forces movement outside the study area because it prevents local access to seal pups. Any movement outside the study area prevents subsequent recapture and can erroneously cause models to assume emigrant bears are dead. That false assumption creates lower survival estimates which then dramatically lower population estimates. Misinterpreting a temporary or permanent exodus away from a stressful local environment was the same critical error that led to bogus extinction claims for the Emperor Penguins . Coincidently one modeler, Hal Caswell, created both models falsely suggesting Emperor Penguins and Polar Bears are both on the verge of extinction."
## [2159] "The IPCC manufactures climate alarm by assuming CO2 controls water vapor to produce a runaway positive feedback system. Physicist Clive Best has posted his new paper showing that water vapor feedback is instead strongly negative, based on both the Faint Sun Paradox and a comparison of 5600 weather stations in the global CRUTEM4 temperature and humidity database. Peer-reviewed publications by Paltridge and others also find water vapor feedback is strongly negative. Without positive water vapor feedback, the IPCC's case for catastrophic man-made climate change collapses."
## [2160] "Given the stability of the climate over the past half billion years, there is little danger that current anthropogenic perturbation of the climate will cause a runaway greenhouse effect. It is likely, therefore, that the IPCCs current estimates of the magnitude of climate feedbacks have been substantially exaggerated."
## [2161] "Marine life, including that part that fixes CO 2 as the carbonate in limestones such as coral reefs, evolved on an Earth with CO 2 levels many times higher than those of today, as reported by Berner and Kothaval. It may be true to say that todays marine life is getting by in a CO 2 -deprived environment."
## [2162] "Weiss et al . report that \" H. undatus plants enriched with CO 2 demonstrated 52%, 22%, 18% and 175% increases, relative to plants measured in ambient CO 2 , in total daily net CO 2 uptake, shoot elongation, shoot dry mass, and number of reproductive buds, respectively,\" while corresponding responses for S. megalanthus were 129%, 73%, 68% and 233%. In addition, they found there was a slight (7%) increase in the fruit fresh mass of H. undatus and a much greater 63% increase in the fruit fresh mass of S. megalanthus , due to the extra 620 ppm of CO 2 enrichment of the air in which the plants had been grown. What it means"
## [2163] "Lets start with tomatoes. A recent article in Pedosphere was produced by eight scientists from China and New Zealand. They grew tomato plants hydroponically in near ambient CO2 concentrations (near 350 ppm) and in elevated concentrations (near 800 ppm). Wang et al. reported in their abstract Compared with the control, CO2 enrichment significantly increased the dry matter of both shoot and root, the ratio of root to shoot, total root length, root surface area, root diameter, root volume, and root tip numbers, which are important for forming a strong root system. The elevated CO2 treatment also significantly improved root hair development and elongation, thus enhancing nutrient uptake. Obviously, elevated CO2 definitely makes tomato plants bigger and stronger, and we hope the First Lady is thrilled at these results."
## [2164] "\"Contrary to the dominating hypotheses in the literature,\" in the words of Hargrave et al ., \" e CO 2 might have positive, bottom-up effects on secondary production in some stream food webs.\" As a result, they conclude that their experimental findings, as well as \"the large literature from terrestrial and marine ecosystems suggests that future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are likely to have broad reaching effects on autotrophs and consumers across terrestrial and aquatic biomes,\" which effects could well be hugely positive , as were those observed in their important study. Reviewed 27 January 2010"
## [2165] "The authors report that \"the optimal temperature of photosynthesis (Topt, the value where the photosynthetic rate was maximum) was significantly higher at elevated CO 2 : it ranged from 22 to 34.5C with an average value of 28.9C at ambient CO 2 , and from 29.5 to 37C with an average value of 33.5C at elevated CO 2 .\" As a result, since the increase in the air's CO 2 concentration employed in this study was only 200 ppm, the 4.6C mean increase in Topt observed in this experiment would roughly translate to a 6.9C mean increase in Topt for a CO 2 increase of 300 ppm, which is the concentration increase that is more commonly used in climate modeling studies of the effects of elevated CO 2 on planetary temperature. What it means"
## [2166] "Why are polar bears populations higher today than in 1960 and Inuit children now in more danger from the bears than are the bears from climate change?"
## [2167] "Our own reasons for concluding that climate sensitivity is low are set out in some detail in Monckton of Brenchley et al. (2015) Why models run hot (Science Bulletin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 60(1), January: go to scibull.com , click on Most Read Articles and ours is the all-time no. 1). Further testing of the simple climate-sensitivity model therein presented by comparing its hindcasts based on IPCC estimates of net anthropogenic radiative forcings from 1750-1950, 1750-1980 and 1750-2012 with observed temperature change over these three periods, carried out for a follow-up paper currently under review by the journal, show the models predictions as very close to observation on all three timescales. Our simple model, using a choice of parameters that reflects the underlying physics better than those of the more complex models, predicts that the equilibrium response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration will be 1.0 K per CO2 doubling,"
## [2168] "At low nitrogen, elevated CO 2 stimulated nodule numbers and nodule dry mass in nodulated soybeans by approximately 80 and 70%, respectively, while having no effect on these parameters at high nitrogen supply. In addition, it increased total plant dry mass by approximately 40 and 80% in nodulated soybeans grown at low and high nitrogen supply, respectively, while non-nodulated plants exhibited no CO 2 -induced growth response at low nitrogen but an approximate 60% growth enhancement at high nitrogen supply. What it means"
## [2169] "The problem alarmists have is that it is very, very difficult to reconcile past warming to high-sensitivity forecasts. It takes a lot of mathematical contortions, from time-delays to cooling aerosols to ignoring ocean cycles and natural recovery from the little ice age to make the numbers reconcile. Halving the actual historic warming by attributing the other half to measurement biases makes it even, uh, more impossible to reconcile high sensitivity models to actual history."
## [2170] "Zou collected the plant material at low tide in February along the coast of Chinas Nanao Island (if you can point to Nanao Island on a map, you are in a very small minority of Americans). The plants were reestablished in their new home in aquariums with near ambient (360 ppm) and elevated (700 ppm) CO2 levels. The plants were measured regularly to establish the biomass and relative growth rate. A seen in Figure 1, the relative growth rate of the plants was 50% higher when grown in the water with elevated CO2 concentrations. The author notes that prolonged exposure to the elevated levels of CO2 in seawater increased the growth rate of H. fusiforme . The findings were viewed as similar to what others had found when they conducted various experiments on elevated CO2 and seaweed."
## [2171] "Walter Starcks response is entitled, The Great Barrier Reef and the prophets of doom: Even the more extreme model projections only depict tropical oceanic warming still well within the limits that thriving reefs tolerate. Dr Walter Starck has a PhD in marine science including post graduate training and professional experience in fisheries biology. He is the editor and publisher of Golden Dolphin, a quarterly publication on CD focusing on diving, underwater photography and the ocean world."
## [2172] "In describing their findings the four researchers report - quite bluntly and very simply - that \"none of the early life-history stages we studied were consistently affected by reduced pH.\" In light of these favorable findings, Chua et al . conclude - again in very blunt and forceful language - that \"there will be no direct ecological effects of ocean acidification on the early life-history stages of reef corals, at least in the near future.\" And so it would appear that wave upon wave of new reef coral \"youngsters\" might well have a significant period of time during which they - and their descendants' descendants - could conceivably better learn to cope with slowly declining-pH seawater."
## [2173] "And it is often claimed that ocean acidification is happening as a result of increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, I have repeatedly pointed out that the opposite is also possible because the deep ocean waters now returning to ocean surface could be altering the pH of the ocean surface layer with resulting release of CO2 from the ocean surface layer. Indeed, no actual release is needed because massive CO2 exchange occurs between the air and ocean surface each year and the changed pH would inhibit re-sequestration of the CO2 naturally released from ocean surface."
## [2174] "Lehr: There is nothing we can do about it. Bleaching is a natural outcome, and Lehr described concern about the Great Barrier Reef as fear mongering. Bleaching has occurred in a small portion of the reef, but an underwater survey of the 1,000 mile long reef shows that it is thriving; there is no more bleaching than was present 20 years ago."
## [2175] "As Dick Lindzen alluded to back in 1990 , while everyone seems to understand that the greenhouse effect warms the Earths surface, few people are aware of the fact that weather processes greatly limit that warming. And one very real possibility is that the 1 deg. C direct warming effect of doubling our atmospheric CO2 concentration by late in this century will be mitigated by the cooling effects of weather to a value closer to 0.5 deg. C or so (about 1 deg. F.) This is much less than is being predicted by the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or by NASAs James Hansen, who believe that weather changes will amplify, rather than reduce, that warming."
## [2176] "Munday et al . state that their data suggest that the larval clown fish is \"capable of regulating endolymphic fluid chemistry even in waters with pH values significantly lower than open ocean values,\" and they thus conclude that \"the larval clown fish is robust to levels of ocean chemistry change that may occur over the next 50-100 years,\" which conclusion is about the same as that reached by Munday et al . (2011a), who they say \"detected no effects of ~850 ppm CO 2 on size, shape or symmetry of otoliths on juvenile spiny damselfish, a species without a larval phase.\""
## [2177] "In the words of the four German scientists, they observed \"reduced growth rates as well as weakening of barnacle shells only under very high pCO 2 (>1930 atm).\" However, they add that \"even under these highly acidified conditions, and corroborating other recent investigations on barnacles (e.g., McDonald et al ., 2009; Findlay et al ., 2010a,b), these impacts were subtle and sub-lethal.\" And \"furthermore,\" as they continue, \"ocean warming as expected to occur in the future (IPCC, 2007) has the potential to mitigate the negative effects of ocean acidification (Brennand et al ., 2010; Waldbusser, 2011; present study).\""
## [2178] "We have written about the biological benefits of elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels hundreds of times, and we will never run out of new material! Evidence the results of two recent article showing how CO2 improves the yield of wheat and the competitiveness of rice."
## [2179] "Once again in the words of the authors, \"our data provide plot-scale evidence linking changes in vascular plant abundance to local summer warming in widely dispersed tundra locations across the globe,\" as (as we always like to add) the greening of planet earth continues , thanks not only to global warming, but also to the aerial-fertilization and water-use-efficiency-enhancing effects of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment."
## [2180] "Elevated CO 2 consistently increased bulb size across all nitrogen and potassium concentrations, with initially larger bulbs yielding the greatest size of final bulbs. However, on a percentage basis, smaller bulbs were slightly more responsive to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment than were larger bulbs. Indeed, under optimal nitrogen and potassium fertilization, the 650-ppm increase in the air's CO 2 concentration increased the size of smaller and larger bulbs by about 18 and 14%, respectively. What it means"
## [2181] "They found, \"60 birds and mammals are known to have become extinct between 1900 and 1950,\" \"actual extinctions remain low many species appear to have either an almost miraculous capacity for survival, or a guardian angel watching over their destiny,\" and not \"a single known animal species could be properly declared as extinct, in spite of the massive reduction in area and fragmentation of their habitats in the past decades and centuries of intensive human activity.\" (Simon, Scarcity or Abundance, pp. 200-202)"
## [2182] "The most recent estimates from observations suggest a transient climate response of 1.05 to 1.45 o C and equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.2 to 1.8 o C ??"
## [2183] "Regardless, climate models are made interesting by the inclusion of \"positive feedbacks\" (multiplier effects) so that a small temperature increment expected from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide invokes large increases in water vapor, which seem to produce exponential rather than logarithmic temperature response in the models. It appears to have become something of a game to see who can add in the most creative feedback mechanisms to produce the scariest warming scenarios from their models but there remains no evidence the planet includes any such effects or behaves in a similar manner."
## [2184] "Other researchers used actual historical (real-world) data for land use, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, fertilization, ozone levels, rainfall and climate combined with their knowledge of plant physiology and growth to develop a computer model that simulates plant growth responses for grasslands, forests, wetlands and agriculture in the southern United States from 1895 to 2007. They determined that net primary productivity improved by an average of 27% during this 112-year period, with most of the increased growth occurring after 1950, when carbon dioxide levels rose the most, from 310 ppm in 1950 to 395 ppm in 2007."
## [2185] "Now, as an aside, the term \"carbon\" (or \"carbon pollution\") is political propaganda, a rhetorical device designed to assume the answer to the underlying policy question even as it demonstrates the user's moral superiority to him/herself, to the given audience, and to the larger community of the right-thinking. Carbon dioxide, a colorless, odorless greenhouse gas, is not \"carbon,\" which is soot, or particulates in the language of environmental policy. Not only is carbon dioxide not carbon, it is not a \"pollutant,\" as some minimum atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is necessary for life itself."
## [2186] "EPA has perverted the Clean Air Act by declaring carbon dioxide a pollutant, despite the plain intent of the laws authors to exclude such naturally occurring gases, and despite major flaws in the science used to claim carbon dioxide endangers human health."
## [2187] "Shell fish grow in water with varying pH, yet we seem to look at decreasing the mythical sea pH is by 0.1 standard unit is supposed to be very damaging. A number of the studies tend to look at one variable, pH, and ignore others, like pollution. Are they saying that for all the ranting and raving about water quality in the Chesapeake Bay, that all we need to do is raid the pH?"
## [2188] "Plants in a CO2 enriched atmosphere generally prefer warmer temperatures than those exposed to air with lower CO2, Idso said as he described a series of experiments. The doubling of the airs Co2 concentration typically boosts the optimum temperature for plant photosynthesis by several degrees centigrade and this also raises the temperature at which plants experience heat related death."
## [2189] "That component is the sensitivity of our atmosphere to a doubling of the concentrations of CO 2 . The activists who have tried to dominate the discussion of climate change for more than twenty years have insisted that this sensitivity is high, and will amplify the warming caused by CO 2 by 3, 4 or even 10 times the 1C of warming provided by a doubling of CO 2 alone. The Skeptics who oppose them dispute the models that have shaped Alarmist views of sensitivity and argue instead that sensitivity is only about 1C or even less."
## [2190] "As the air's CO 2 content rises, water losses via evapotranspiration from wheat fields will likely be reduced. Consequently, wheat will likely fare better under drought conditions and should additionally display increased water-use efficiency."
## [2191] "According to the Spanish scientists who conducted the work, their data suggest that \"under future environmental conditions, barley species will be able to succeed in salinized areas in which growth is not currently possible.\" This phenomenon, quite obviously, should prove a great blessing to humanity. Reviewed 7 April 2010"
## [2192] "Although, much remains to be learned on this subject, it is clear that many corals will not succumb to the presumed negative impacts of rising temperatures and ocean acidification. And when adaptive and evolutionary responses are considered, it may be that few, if any, corals will actually suffer harm from increases in these two phenomena. In fact, many coral species could well benefit from the warmer ocean temperatures and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations predicted for the years and decades ahead."
## [2193] "Getting higher crop yields per unit of water used in the process of obtaining them will be a key element of mankind's struggle to feed our ever-increasing numbers over the next four decades, when our food needs are expected to double (Parry and Hawkesford, 2010); and with both land and water shortages looming on the horizon, we are going to need all of the help we can possibly get to grow the extra needed food. Fortunately, the results of this meta-analysis coming out of Belgium point to one important avenue by which such very substantial help can come, but it will only come if the air's CO 2 content is allowed to rise unimpeded ."
## [2194] "Nature CAN cope with climate change: Unusual behaviour of plants and animals suggests we??ve underestimated their ability to adapt, claim studies"
## [2195] "A recent study (Idso, 2013) reviewed a large collection of such literature as it applies to the worlds 45 most important food crops (making up 95% of the worlds annual agricultural production). Idso (2013) summarized his findings on the increase in biomass of each crop that results from a 300ppm increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide under which the plants were grown. This table is reproduced below, and shows that the typical growth increase exceeds 30% in most crops, including 8 of the worlds top 10 food crops (the increase was 24% and 14% in the other two)."
## [2196] "As a result of these various phenomena, Darbah et al .'s gas exchange measurements indicated that whereas the CO 2 -induced stimulation of net photosynthesis in aspen clone 42E was about 31% over the leaf temperature range 32-35C, it was approximately 218% over the temperature range 36-39C, while for aspen clone 171 the corresponding enhancements were 38 and 199%, and for the birch trees they were 95 and 297%."
## [2197] "Heartland Institute Conference: CO2 Rise Increases Biodiversity, Crop Yields"
## [2198] "Researchers at the University of Alabama-Huntsville have published evidence supporting Richard Lindzen's iris theory, which says that when the Earth's surface warms, cirrus clouds open up to let the heat out. They have analysed data on rainfall and cloud cover and the heat escaping to space. They find a strong negative feedbank , confirming Lindzen's theory and directly contradicting the alarmist case."
## [2199] "Atmospheric carbon dioxide is not a pollutant. It is a non-toxic, non-irritating, and natural component of the atmosphere. Long-term CO2 enrichment studies confirm the findings of shorter-term experiments, demonstrating numerous growth-enhancing, water-conserving, and stress-alleviating effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 on plants growing in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems."
## [2200] "An approximate 180% increase in the air's CO 2 content more than doubled the dry mass produced by well-watered and fertilized St. John's wort plants, while it also more than doubled the concentrations of both hypericin and pseudohypericen found in their tissues, which means that the CO 2 increase more than quadrupled the total production of these two health-promoting substances. This study thus joins several others we describe in our Major Report - Enhanced or Impaired? Human Health in a CO 2 -Enriched Warmer World - as an excellent example of what elevated levels of atmospheric CO 2 can do for medicinal and health-promoting plants: a lot! Reference"
## [2201] "Polar Bears are used so frequently by the warmers that it??s become accepted wisdom that they are threatened . In fact, the polar bear population has doubled to over 25,000 in the past 20 years. The US Government??s recent decision to list the species as threatened was a political decision to avoid a court battle, and has no foundation."
## [2202] "Contrary to speculation that tropical forests could be devastated under these conditions, forest diversity increased rapidly during this warming event. New plant species evolved much faster than old species became extinct. Pollen from the passionflower plant family and the chocolate family, among others, were found for the first time."
## [2203] "Rather than using an enormously complex global circulation model (or 22) to come up with a figure for climate sensitivity, Sherwood Idso does calculations from eight completely different natural experiments which all arrive at similar figures. In short, he reviewed 20 years of work to arrive at a prediction that if CO2 is doubled we will get 0.4C of warming at most , and even he admitted, it might be an overestimate. Basically by the time CO2 levels double, he says we ought expect 0 ??? 0.4C of warming, after feedbacks are taken into account. Idso started off assuming that the feedbacks were largely positive, but repeatedly found that they were negative."
## [2204] "A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that a natural atmospheric oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode , is correlated to significant increases in cloud cover resulting in \"large scale\" local cooling of approximately -2.5C. All climate models falsely assume clouds result in net positive feedback and increased temperatures, however this new paper and several others show clouds instead result in net negative feedback and cooling."
## [2205] "The three Japanese researchers report that plant dry weight increased monotonically with each increase in CO 2 , to where the CO 2 -induced increase in plant shoot dry weight in the 10,000 ppm environment was 274% greater than that in ambient air at 45??C and 286% greater than that in ambient air at 60??C, while plant root dry weight in the 10,000 ppm environment was 5,533% greater than that in ambient air at 45??C and 4,960% greater than that in ambient air at 60??C. What it means"
## [2206] "As my latest book describes, I contend that they have been fooled by Mother Nature, and that in fact warming alters clouds in ways that mitigate not amplify ??? the small amount of direct warming caused by increasing atmospheric CO2."
## [2207] "Finally ???more than 97% of all actively publishing* climate scientists agree that climate change is real and human caused?? is probably an underestimate, as virtually everyone acknowledges that the surface temperature is warmer than it was, and that multifarious human activities have some influence on climate. Rather, he misses the point well-made by the original Journal article, which is that the rise in surface temperature is clearly below the values first forecast by the UN in 1990. The coreunsettledissue in climate science is the ???sensitivity?? of temperature to carbon dioxide, and there are several independent lines of evidence, including the surface temperature history and the water vapor problems, that argue that it has been substantially overestimated."
## [2208] "espite the strong mechanistic or physiological basis for a role of warming in coral bleaching and coral growth, a robust demonstration of a direct causal link between global warming and global coral bleaching over decadal time scales has not yet been produced."
## [2209] "As my presentation had pointed out, the very small fluctuations of just 1% in absolute global temperature either side of the long-run mean over the past 420,000 years, notwithstanding substantial astronomical forcings, are inconsistent with the notion that strongly net-positive (i.e. temperature-amplifying) feedbacks are in operation."
## [2210] "The four researchers say that for the Mediterranean zooxanthellate coral, \"an increase in CO 2 , in the range predicted for 2100, does not reduce its calcification rate,\" and that \"an increase in CO 2 , alone or in combination with elevated temperature, had no significant effect on photosynthesis, photosynthetic efficiency and calcification.\" However, they report that a 3C rise in temperature in winter resulted in a 72% increase in gross photosynthesis, as well as a significant increase in daytime calcification rate. What it means"
## [2211] "As the air??s CO2 content rises in response to ever-increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions, and as more and more carbon dioxide therefore dissolves in the surface waters of the world??s oceans, theoretical reasoning suggests the pH values of the planet??s oceanic waters should be gradually dropping. The IPCC and others postulate that this chain of events, commonly referred to as ocean acidification, will cause great harm ??? and possibly death ??? to marine life in the decades and centuries to come. However, as ever more pertinent evidence accumulates, a much more optimistic viewpoint is emerging. This summary examines the topic of the potential impacts of ocean acidification on fish."
## [2212] "Once again, perhaps his speechwriters were aware of claims of falsified records and the besmirched Charles Monnett (whose observations of drowned polar bears helped galvanize the global warming movement), and reports of rebounding polar bear populations. While they dont get much mainstream press coverage, several scientists are reporting an unprecedented increase in the worlds polar bear population."
## [2213] "Again, in the words of the authors, \"both coral and fish assemblages demonstrated resilience to large-scale natural disturbance ? with most taxa approaching the asymptote of abundance and species richness that existed prior to the disturbance.\" They note, however, that \"this outcome may not necessarily be the case in more isolated systems or those impacted by anthropogenic disturbances,\" specifically mentioning over-fishing and destructive fishing practices. Hence, their work gives hope that if the direct deleterious effects of human activities can be mitigated, earth's coral reef ecosystems may yet be saved from the destruction so often decreed for them by environmental extremists."
## [2214] "Fair enough! To test how the red king crabs respond to various water temperatures, Stoner et al. reared red king crabs for 60 days with water temperatures ranging from 1.5C to 12C. Some of the crabs were cultured in populations while others were grown in isolated cells. The key figure below tells much of the story the red king crabs grow best in warm water the warmer the better from their perspective! Not only are the growth rates in terms of size impressive at high temperatures, but the growth rates in terms of weight are just as impressive. Weights for red king crabs at 12C averaged nearly seven times more than the weights for the crabs reared at 1.5C."
## [2215] "PUPAGANDA: Hunting, not global warming, affected polar bear population Dr. Mitch Taylor, a Canadian polar bear expert who tracks polar bear populations, says bear populations will show increases, not decreases, in the 2009 census now underway."
## [2216] "With the CO 2 content of the air increasing on the planetary scale, we take these findings to suggest that the aerial fertilization effect of the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO 2 concentration is providing a very real impetus for increased net primary production everywhere on earth and, hence, an increased impetus for preserving - and even enhancing - the species richness of both plants and animals over the entire globe. This conclusion further suggests that we not attempt to restrict anthropogenic CO 2 emissions via Kyoto-style interventions (see our Editorial Biodiversity, Productivity and CO 2 ); for with all of the other assaults on the biosphere produced by the activities of our burgeoning population, earth's plants and animals are going to need all the help they can get to maintain enough \"critical biomass\" to preserve their unique identities in the days and years ahead."
## [2217] "Plants grown in CO 2 -enriched air exhibited rates of net photosynthesis that were approximately 50% greater than those displayed by ambiently-grown plants, regardless of soil nitrate availability. These increases in photosynthetic carbon uptake contributed to CO 2 -induced increases in aboveground organ dry weights that were 1.6-, 1.4-, and 1.3-fold greater than dry weights observed in control plants receiving one-half, standard, and three-fold levels of soil nitrate, respectively. Root weights, however, were less responsive to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment, displaying 10 and 30% increases in dry weight at one-half and standard nitrate levels, while no significant response was detected at the high soil nitrate concentration. What it means"
## [2218] "In a provocative paper they entitled ???Food for Thought: Lower-Than-Expected Crop Yield Stimulation with Rising CO2 Concentrations,?? Long et al. (2006)1 suggested that future increases in crop production caused by the fertilization effect of the atmosphere??s rising CO2 concentration may be only half as large as what had long been believed would be the case, due to confounding influences they claimed were inherent in all experimental assessments of the growth-promoting effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment except those employing Free-Air CO2- Enrichment or FACE technology. Quite to the contrary, however, there is a strong possibility that just the opposite could well be true, i.e., that future increases in crop production caused by the aerial fertilization effect of the atmosphere??s rising CO2 concentration may well be twice as large as what FACE experiments suggest."
## [2219] "New study: tropical forests are using far more CO2 and so growing far faster than previously believed."
## [2220] "The main point I am making here is that, no matter whether you assume the climate system is sensitive or insensitive, our best satellite measurements suggest that the climate system is perfectly capable of causing internally-generated radiative forcing larger than the external forcing due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. Low cloud variations are the most likely source of this internal radiative forcing. It should be remembered that the satellite data are actually measured, whereas the CO2 forcing (red lines in the above graphs) is so small that it can only be computed theoretically."
## [2221] "Moulin et al . conclude that \"sea urchins inhabiting stressful intertidal environments produce offspring that may better resist future ocean acidification.\" And they add that the fact that \"the fertilization rate of gametes whose progenitors came from the tide pool with higher pH decrease was significantly higher,\" suggests \"a possible acclimation or adaptation of gametes to pH stress.\" References"
## [2222] "In the words of the authors, \"the difference in effects of elevated CO 2 on green leaf tissue and leaf litter presented in this study confirms that the litter quality hypothesis of Strain and Bazzaz (1983) may not be realized in a high CO 2 atmosphere,\" as has also been noted by Norby et al . (2001) . Hence, they conclude that \"potential increases in desert productivity with elevated CO 2 thus may not be limited by reduced leaf litter quality.\" This finding is extremely good news for the biosphere, for it means, as the authors also report, that \"deserts are expected to be among the most responsive ecosystems to elevated CO 2 , with increases in productivity leading to potential increased C sequestration.\" References"
## [2223] "the three researchers conclude that ???this species would benefit from global warming and be able to withstand the predicted decrease in ocean pH in the next century during their earliest life stages.??"
## [2224] "Quoting the two U.S. researchers, \"these findings indicate that juvenile massive Porites spp. are resistant to short exposures to OA in situ ,\" and that \"they can increase calcification at low pH and low ?? arg if is elevated,\" while this latter finding leads them to also suggest that juvenile Porites spp. may actually \"be limited by dissolved inorganic carbon under ambient pCO 2 condition.\""
## [2225] "If temperature variations in space have essentially no impact on the carbon sequestration prowess of earth's peatlands, as is suggested by the two studies described above, there is little reason to believe that temperature variations in time would be much different in this regard. Hence, there would appear to be little real-world support for the climate-alarmist claim that in response to future global warming, \"peatlands may become a net source of greenhouse gases which will accelerate warming of the atmosphere.\" Reference"
## [2226] "Averaged over the two years of experimentation, elevated CO 2 increased crop yield by 15% in the dry soil moisture plots, but had no effect on the yield of plants grown in plots receiving adequate levels of soil moisture."
## [2227] "With respect to climate, the two researchers determined there had been a significant increase in the daily mean temperature during the vegetation season (May-September) between 1944 and 2008, when the temperature rose at a rate of 0.015C per year, yielding an increase of almost 1C over the 64-year study period. With respect to insect responses, they found that the total number of bumble bee, butterfly and moth species increased from 52 in 1944 to 64 in 2008; but they say that for wild bees, which only increased from 15 to 16 species, the increase was not statistically significant. For butterflies and moths, on the other hand, the combined species number increase (from 37 to 48) was statistically significant."
## [2228] "The findings indicate that water flea populations can adapt quite rapidly to rising temperatures. The study is the first to show that animal populations can adapt and already have adapted to higher temperatures and increased heat wave frequencies ??? two results of climate change ??? by means of evolutionary changes in their heat tolerance."
## [2229] "First of all, nearly all crop plants grow bigger and better - and produce greater yields - when exposed to higher-than-current atmospheric CO2 concentrations; and they use water more efficiently in doing so. The former of these facts can readily be verified by a perusal of the data we have archived within the Plant Growth Database of our website, while the latter phenomenon is profusely illustrated in the collection of Journal Reviews of papers demonstrating this fact that we have archived under the heading of Water Use Efficiency (Agricultural Species) in our Subject Index."
## [2230] "OK, so is CO2 the limiting nutrient? Id assert that it often was. Yes, for some lands and crops adding Nitrogen or Phosphorus increases growth (so they are the limiting nutrients). And farmers have gone out of their way to assure that their lands are not rate limited on those common fertilizer components. But Greenhouse operators regularly add CO2 to the space to increase production. That strongly implies that CO2 is a rate limiting nutrient in many / most cases of farm lands as well. The CO2 bump in growth tends to work up to about 1000 to 2000 ppm of CO2."
## [2231] "\"With the double verification of this phenomenon provided by both weekly biomass and periodic net photosynthesis determinations,\" the four researchers concluded that \"atmospheric CO 2 enrichment may be capable of preventing the deaths of some plant species in situations where their demise is normally brought about by either the direct effects of unduly high temperatures or by associated debilitating diseases.\" Consequently, it is clear that in trying to determine how plants will respond to higher temperatures in a CO 2 -enriched world of the future, old concepts that do not include phenomena (either known or unknown) related to the positive effects of elevated CO 2 on plant physiological processes will likely present an unduly pessimistic picture of what to expect. Reviewed 4 October 2006"
## [2232] "CO2 is also a biogeochemical forcing, so when you increase CO2, plants can respond. All plants like CO2, but some plants like CO2 more which may use water more efficiently. Thus there are complex nonlinear interactions due to increasing CO2. That really complicates how CO2 affects the climate system. Our work suggests that the biogeochemical effects of adding CO2 may have more effect on the climate system than the radiative effect of adding CO2. But the models have inadequately dealt with the biogeochemical effect of CO2."
## [2233] "Once again, we have yet another experimental demonstration of the fact that atmospheric CO 2 enrichment generally enables plants to find the extra nitrogen they need to take full advantage of the aerial fertilization effect of elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, with the result that total ecosystem carbon content is increased , resulting in a negative feedback to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. References"
## [2234] "But this month fellow Queensland University researchers admitted in a study that reef coral had once more made a ???spectacular recovery??, with ???abundant corals re-established in a single year??. The reef is blooming."
## [2235] "As the atmospheric CO 2 concentration continues to rise, it is likely that this plant species, and possibly others, will exhibit larger-than-predicted CO 2 -induced increases in photosynthetic rates. Indeed, the author's final sentence states that \"it is premature to conclude that the relative stimulation of photosynthesis by rising atmospheric will necessarily be less in cool climates or at cool times of the year,\" as many plant scientists, including we, have long believed. If this conclusion holds up under further scrutiny, the productivity of the totality of earth's vegetation may be even more stimulated by atmospheric CO 2 enrichment than has been anticipated by many of its most ardent advocates, due to possibly larger-than-expected CO 2 -induced increases in photosynthesis at low air temperatures."
## [2236] "Read here . Almost all scientists agree that an increase in atmospheric CO2 will only raise global temperatures from 1.0 to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The IPCC is well aware of this established science, so they had scientists add a hypothetical positive feedback to the climate models, which would then produce predictions of much higher temperatures."
## [2237] "In light of their several findings and the analogous results of several other scientific teams, Crawfurd et al . conclude in the final sentence of their paper that \"if all diatoms respond in a similar fashion to T. pseudonana , acidification of this magnitude in the future ocean may have little effect on diatom productivity.\""
## [2238] "In the case of freshwater ecosystems, Joint et al . report that \"Maberly (1996) showed that diel variations in a lake can be as much as 2-3 pH units,\" and that \"Talling (2006) showed that in some English lakes, pH could change by >2.5 pH units over a depth of only 14 m,\" while noting that \"phytoplankton, bacteria, archaea and metazoans are all present in lakes, and appear to be able to accommodate large daily and seasonal changes in pH.\""
## [2239] "Hussein et al . conclude that \"coastal marsh ecosystems tend to sequester C continuously with increasing storage capacity as marsh age progresses,\" and that \"C sequestration in coastal marsh ecosystems under positive accretionary balance acts as a negative feedback mechanism to global warming,\" much as we have suggested in the past . References"
## [2240] "This is a tough one. The above plot seems to suggest that the observations favor a low climate sensitivity?? maybe even less than any of the models. But the results are less than compelling."
## [2241] "A compilation of at least 30 published studies based upon satellite and ocean observations demonstrate climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 levels after all feedbacks is only about 0.5 C, which is ~7 times less than the 3.2C claimed by the IPCC AR5 modelled mean estimate."
## [2242] "\"It is generally agreed that doubling CO2 alone will cause about 1C warming due to the fact that it acts as a blanket. Model projections of greater warming absolutely depend on positive feedbacks from water vapor and clouds that will add to the blanket reducing the net cooling of the climate system. ... This, however, is not the case for the actual climate system where the sensitivity is about 0.5C for a doubling of CO 2 .\""
## [2243] "An analysis of nuclear genes suggests that the polar bear is old enough to have survived through several periods that were warmer than today between the Middle Pleistocene and the early Holocene."
## [2244] "Now, for the global mean temperature, there exist some regulating mechanisms that prevent the Earth from deviating by more than 10 ??C or so from some normal value - like 15 ??C. It's plausible that the global mean temperature hasn't left the 5-25 ??C interval for billions of years. Moreover, most of the changes of the temperature may be \"explained\" or \"attributed\" to some causes."
## [2245] "So according to Dessler the only way clouds can affect surface T is by absorbing energy on its way out of the Earths climate system. But Andy, what about the energy that clouds reflect which thereby never gets into the Earths climate system? No wonder Dessler thinks cloud feedback is positive, he ignores more than half of their effect. Doh! FAIL"
## [2246] "Four of the 15 methods of determining climate sensitivity the amount of warming to be expected if CO2 doubles are based on looking at recent trends in global temperature. Warming since 1950, when CO2 emissions began in earnest, has occurred at a rate of 2 F per century. Again, comparing the warming since 1950 with the radiative forcings, climate sensitivity works out at just 2 F. Doing the same comparison since 1750 also gives a climate sensitivity of 2 F. And if the maximum rate of warming that lasted more than a decade since global temperature records began in 1850 were to become the average rate of warming for the next 90 years, global temperatures would rise by yes, 2 F."
## [2247] "Considering the above, Earth's plants are gradually being freed from the environmental fetters that have for so long held them back and prevented them from exhibiting their true productivity potential, thanks to the life-giving carbon dioxide that has been emitted to the atmosphere by mankind's historic and ongoing burning of fossil fuels."
## [2248] "Moreover, higher temperature must produce higher evaporation from the oceans and thus more rainfall. If this is combined with more abundant carbon dioxide, the aerial plant food, earth would have another green revolution."
## [2249] "Synopsis: Polar bears have survived much hotter and colder periods. Continued polar bear hunting is the primary danger to polar bear species. Source here . \"Polar bears have survived changes in climate that exceed those that occurred during the twentieth century or are forecast by the IPCCs computer models. Most populations of polar bears are growing, not shrinking, and the biggest influence on polar bear populations is not temperature but hunting by humans, which historically has taken a large toll on polar bear populations.\""
## [2250] "Twice-ambient CO 2 concentrations increased plant daily net carbon uptake by nearly 50%, while reducing daily transpirational water loss by approximately 24%. Together, the two phenomena led to a 110% increase in plant water-use efficiency . At the same time, however, prolonged exposure to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment induced measurable photosynthetic acclimation , as indicated by an 11% reduction in rubisco activity and a 34% reduction in the activity of PEP-carboxylase . Nevertheless, the plants grown in elevated CO 2 produced 88% more biomass than the plants grown in ambient air. What it means"
## [2251] "Michaels examined the plethora of recent claims concerning anthropogenic climate change and its possible link to past, present, and future species shifts and extinctions. Michaels overarching conclusions? 1.) Climate affects species distribution. 2.) Plants and animals adapt, evolve, or perish under changes in climate. 3.) That process may be slowed or accelerated by human activities. 4.) Little evidence exists to suggest anthropogenic climate change is leading to mass extinctions, nor should in the future."
## [2252] "In light of these many observations, therefore, it would appear that there is a plethora of natural and anthropogenic-induced negative feedbacks to purported global warming that are more than capable of maintaining the climate of the globe within a temperature range conducive to the continued well-being of all forms of life currently found upon the face of the earth ... and in the sea, and in the soil, and in the air."
## [2253] "A theoretical checksum: In Kiehl & Trenberth (1997), total forcing from H 2 O, CO 2 , CH 4 , O 3 , and N 2 O is given as 125 W m 2 in clear skies and 86 in cloud, or ~101 W m 2 overall. Holding insolation and albedo constant, the difference between surface temperatures with and without these GHGs is 288 255 = 33 C . Ignoring minor forcings, climate sensitivity of the whole atmosphere is (5.35 ln 2)(33/101) = 1.2 C , which, divided by 0.7 to allow for non-CO2 forcings, gives total warming at CO2 doubling by 2100 of 1.7 C , or 50% of IPCCs central estimate, more than halving the cost-effectiveness of the regulations."
## [2254] "Biologists are again predicting massive species losses as the world warms. But where are the corpses? There have been few findings of extinctions among continental bird and mammal species over the past 500 years. The species extinctions have been virtually all on islands, as humans have brought such alien predators as rats, cats, and Canadian thistles to places where they had no natural enemies."
## [2255] "The researchers hypothesize that long-term warming may change the community of soil microorganisms so that it becomes more efficient. Organism adaptation, change in the species that comprise the soils, and/or changes in the availability of various nutrients could result in this increased efficiency."
## [2256] "concentrations will result in broad-scale decreases in the concentrations of all elements essential for plant function and animal nutrition,\" as proposed by Loladze (2002). They also say their generally opposite results for non-essential trace elements (some of which can be toxic) \"may be applicable to contaminated systems,\" stating that \"elevated CO 2 may, through dilution effects, alleviate aluminum toxicity.\" In general, therefore, one could say that elevated CO 2 tends to increase the availability of helpful trace elements, while it tends to decrease the availability of harmful ones. References"
## [2257] "But many Inuit communities said the researchers were wrong. They said the bear population was increasing and they cited reports from hunters who kept seeing more bears. Mr. Gissing said that encouraged the government to conduct the recent study, which involved 8,000 kilometres of aerial surveying last August along the coast and offshore islands."
## [2258] "As a result of their experimental manipulations and measurements, the two researchers found that adult corals, as they describe the situation, \"are capable of acquiring increased thermal tolerance and that the increased tolerance is a direct result of a change in the symbiont type dominating their tissues from Symbiodinium type C to D,\" and they report that \"the level of increased tolerance gained by the corals changing their dominant symbiont type to D is around 1-1.5C.\" What it means"
## [2259] "Zhou et al . conclude that \"vegetation variability on the Tibetan Plateau might be mostly driven by thermal impacts (i.e., surface air temperature), whereas precipitation impact is less clear.\" Overall, they say \"vegetation activity demonstrates a gradual enhancement in an oscillatory manner during 1982-2002,\" suggesting a significant positive impact of what climate alarmists call \"unprecedented\" global warming over what Zhou et al . describe as \"one of the most prominent features on Earth.\" This good-news story is the type of thing that is generally not \"shouted from the housetops\" in our \"new age of enlightenment,\" but it is typical of what is happening worldwide on a long-term basis, as the inexorable greening of the earth continues. Reviewed 14 November 2007"
## [2260] "The book argues that far from cutting down on Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions, this gas, which every human being and member of the animal kingdom exhales night and day, could (and should) naturally increase from the current supposedly dangerous 350 parts per million (ppm) to 1,000 ppm in order to make Earth a truly green planet."
## [2261] "Since the algae and lichens that are major components of BSCs are typically stimulated and grow ever better as the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration is experimentally increased (see Deserts (Algae and Lichens) in our Subject Index), it logically follows that as the air's CO 2 content continues to rise, so too will the productivity of BSCs continue to rise, hastening the encroachment of vegetation onto the world's deserts, as the CO 2 -induced greening of the earth continues. Reviewed 5 March 2008"
## [2262] "Europe 4 : An upwards trend of forest NEP ( Net Ecosystem Productivity ) of 1 0.5 g C/m 2 /year between 1950 and 2000 across the EU 25,?? ending with ???a mean European forest NEP of 175 52 g C/m 2 /year in the 1990s.?? And that ???61% of the change in NEP was attributed to changes in CO2, 26% to changes in climate, and 13% to changes in forest age structure.??"
## [2263] "Study finds increased CO2 will greatly enhance productivity of world's major crops"
## [2264] "Those subpopulations have been of concern to scientists who said their numbers are declining. Inuit in those areas have disputed the scientific claims, saying they have seen more bears."
## [2265] "The four researchers first note that \" A. laticollaris is an appropriate species to predict the response of shallow-water thecate Foraminifera to predicted increases in atmospheric CO 2 , given its isolation from a shallow-water semi-tropical setting.\" Hence, they go on to say their results indicate that \"at least some foraminiferal species will tolerate CO 2 values that are one to two orders of magnitude higher than those predicted for the next few centuries.\" And, last of all, they say that A. laticollaris will also tolerate CO 2 values that are one to two orders of magnitude greater than those predicted to occur for the \"extreme case\" of burning all fossil fuels in the crust of the earth , which observation validates the title of our brief review: That's one tough protist! Reviewed 8 July 2009"
## [2266] "In the simplest of terms, Robredo et al . conclude that \"elevated CO 2 mitigates many of the effects of drought on nitrogen metabolism and allows more rapid recovery following water stress.\""
## [2267] "Polar bear populations are at near record levels and seem healthy, and even I have seen them playing around on floating ice chunks in the Arctic summer. They are a terrestrial animal, after all, as anyone can see who visits the Churchill area in the summer and takes a polar bear cruise on one of their giant bear-proof buses."
## [2268] "In concluding, the Norwegian, Swedish and UK researchers say that \"based on such evidence we urge some caution in assuming broad-scale extinctions of species will occur due solely to climate changes of the magnitude and rate predicted for the next century,\" reiterating that \"the fossil record indicates remarkable biotic resilience to wide amplitude fluctuations in climate.\""
## [2269] "As a sidebar note: Freshwater clams and other shell formers are happy to make shells at pH up to 4.5 or so. Leads me to wonder if they care about pH or Alkalinity https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2012/03/08/clams-do-fine-in-acid-water/"
## [2270] "The authors write that \"global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative demand,\" but they say that \"rising CO 2 may counter that trend by improving plant water-use efficiency.\" However, they are very forthright in noting that \"it is not clear how important this CO 2 -enhanced water use efficiency might be in offsetting warming-induced desiccation because higher CO 2 also leads to higher plant biomass, and therefore greater transpirational surface.\""
## [2271] "Prior to the Industrial Revolution, it is likely that rice had a more difficult time growing than it does today. At lower atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, it is likely that rice plants had to reallocate valuable resources into rubisco and other photosynthetic proteins just to ensure that net carbon uptake could prevail for plant survival. Thus, it is likely that plants were smaller and produced less yield than they do today. Therefore, it logically follows that the rise in the air's CO 2 content, beginning with the Industrial Revolution and still ongoing, is making carbon uptake and biomass production easier and more efficient for this important agricultural species."
## [2272] "So, are polar bears really threatened with extinction? All the evidence says they are not in any trouble right now: the classification of polar bears as threatened with extinction is based completely on predictions made by computer models about what might happen by 2050. However, the results of recent polar bear research have disproved, or called into question, many of the assumptions used to make those models work. That leads me to conclude that polar bears are not endangered."
## [2273] "In Praise of CO2: Earth is the Greenest its been in Decades, Perhaps in Centuries Written by Marc Morano"
## [2274] "In light of their amazing findings, Norikane et al . conclude their paper by stating \"there is great hope for using super-elevated CO 2 enrichment under cold cathode fluorescent lamps for more efficient and higher-quality commercial production of clonal orchid plantlets, which is a key objective of orchid biotechnology,\" citing Hossain et al . (2013) and Teixeira da Silva (2013). References"
## [2275] "7. When this theory was actually tested, the same researchers, Jensen et al (2008) discovered that global warming will have a positive effect on the suitability of Svalbard for nesting geese in terms of range expansion into the northern and eastern parts of Svalbard which are curently unsuitable."
## [2276] "The results of the present study were low compared to those of other such studies of French forests, which have shown productivity increases on the order of 100% over the 20th century. Nevertheless, the authors' results still portended significant growth enhancements throughout the current century. Under a doubled-CO 2 scenario of enhanced greenhouse and aerial fertilization effects, for example, they calculated NPP increases for 14 of the 21 stands studied, obtaining enhancements that ranged from 8 to 55%."
## [2277] "As ever more anthropogenic CO 2 is emitted into the atmosphere and the air's CO 2 concentration rises ever higher, so too does the photosynthetic prowess of earth's terrestrial vegetation grow ever stronger, as the great global greening of the earth gains ever more momentum and sucks ever more CO 2 out of the air and incorporates it into living biomass and soil organic matter, thereby muting the rate of global warming that would otherwise prevail in the absence of this important negative feedback phenomenon. References"
## [2278] "The results of this study ???indicate that seawater chemistry can drive phenotypic plasticity in coralline algae,?? and that ???the ability to change the energy allocation between cell growth and structural support is a clear adaptive response of the organism,?? which they say ???is likely to increase its ability to survive in a high CO 2 world???? Read More"
## [2279] "Coral bleaching is not all gloom and doom, it can have benefits . So say the authors of this study who wrote that ???bleaching is a prime regulator for the settlement of new recruitment of scleractinian corals which leads to diversified reef area,?? while further noting that ???the adaptive features of bleaching can be seen as a mechanism that enables the exchange of symbionts in a better fit of the holobiont to a changed environment???? Read More"
## [2280] "The six scientists state that the great increase they observed in plant water use efficiency \"could be a major physiological advantage to growth under elevated CO 2 in this CAM bromeliad,\" and that this fact further suggests that CAM species should \"be considered in an agronomic context as potential sources of biomass production on arid, marginal lands.\" Reviewed 1 October 2008"
## [2281] "Had he wished to be objective, he would have pointed out that the polar bear population has not been falling, but rising."
## [2282] "Bernhard et al . report that the protist they studied \"is able to survive 10-14-day exposure to elevated CO 2 as high as 200,000 ppm.\" In fact, they say that \"both ATP data and microscopic examination indicate that considerable populations of A. laticollaris survived exposure to all experimental treatments of elevated CO 2 , even both replicates of the 200,000-ppm CO 2 experiments .\" And they found that \"at least three specimens reproduced during exposure to either 90,000 ppm or 200,000 ppm CO 2 ,\" while \"such reproduction was observed only once in an atmospheric treatment.\" What it means"
## [2283] "???If temperatures go up, there is going to be more evaporation, and that will produce more clouds,?? Professor Lambeck said. ???That could produce a negative feedback, but to quantify that is a very difficult thing."
## [2284] "Flanagan and Syed conclude that \"in the absence of fire or other major disturbance, significant net carbon sequestration could continue for decades at this site and help to reduce the positive feedback of climate change on increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration.\""
## [2285] "It would appear that many of Earth's higher-latitude terrestrial ecosystems might well be able to sustain considerably greater primary productivity, as well as much larger numbers of higher trophic-level consumers, in a CO2- enriched and warmer world."
## [2286] "3. Is carbon dioxide a pollutant? Lawyers might say, Yes, this is what the Supreme Court ruled in 2007 , but scientists are not so sure. A pollutant, by definition, must produce harmful effects. CO2 is a natural constituent of the atmosphere, non-toxic, invisible, having no physiological effects we know of ??? even at high concentrations. Its definition as a pollutant relies entirely on its alleged causation of significant global warming and on the additional assumption that a warmer climate is damaging."
## [2287] "be particularly important.The CAM-SP shows strongly negative net cloud feedback in boththe tropics and in the extratropics, resulting in a global climatesensitivity of only 0.41 K/(W m-2) , at the low end of traditionalAGCMs (e.g. Cess et al. 1996), but in accord with an analysis of 30-day SST/SST+2K climatologies from a global aquaplanet CRM runon the Earth Simulator (Miura et al. 2005). The conventional AGCMsdiffer greatly from each other but all have less negative net cloudforcings and correspondingly larger climate sensitivities than the"
## [2288] "New paper finds rapid-transgenerational adaptation of corals to changes in temperature & pH"
## [2289] "Manitoba conservation officials have stumbled across a pleasant surprise a large number of polar bear dens along the Hudson Bay coast near the Ontario boundary."
## [2290] "Part of the answer to this question undoubtedly resides in the nature of the photosynthetic responses of the grassland plants to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment. It is interesting to note, for example, that the CO 2 -induced stimulation of the maximum photosynthetic rates of the plants did not taper off, as might have been expected, as the air's CO 2 content rose, even at the highest CO 2 concentration investigated . Rather, the photosynthetic response was linear , just like that of the change in soil organic carbon content. What is even more interesting - even fascinating - in this regard, is that the linear responses were maintained in the face of what Gill et al . say was a \"threefold decrease in nitrogen availability\" as the air's CO 2 content went from its lowest to highest level."
## [2291] "Read here . For the oceans to become sufficiently \"acidified\" to have any impact on coral larvae, it would require an atmospheric CO2 level that exceeds 2100 ppm. The likelihood that level of CO2 will be attained due human emissions is extremely low, and very far into the future if it were to happen. The possible impact would be a reduction in size of larvae but would also include a positive increase in survivorship."
## [2292] "The growth of the vegetation in these middle and high latitude areas is mainly limited by temperature. Many studies correlating NDVI with land surface temperature indicate warming might be the most important factor accounting for the LAI increase in this area. Warming, causes longer active growing season length and higher growth magnitude, therefore leads to increase in LAI in this area."
## [2293] "The effects of climate change have been dramatically over-estimated. Future global climate change caused by human activity will be much less than feared and be largely benign for viticulture??. ???The 21st Century will be wine??s golden age??."
## [2294] "Global Warming Reducing Temperature Stress on Chinese Rice"
## [2295] "In the concluding paragraph of their paper, Wu et al . thus indicate that their results suggest \"future increases in CO 2 would favor increased growth rates of larger diatoms, especially in productive regions, which may act to increase the rate and efficiency of carbon export from the surface to the deep sea.\" And this phenomenon, in turn, would obviously help to slow the rate-of-rise of the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration, which is the ultimate goal of the world's climate alarmists, which facts further highlight the greater fact that nature itself can take care of itself , without a bit of \"help\" from global regulators, as a detailed search of our website reveals a number of different ways by which a number of natural phenomena can accomplish this very task, while doing it all by themselves (see the subheadings under Feedback Factors here ."
## [2296] "As the atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, it is likely that young mint and thyme plants will exhibit increases in photosynthesis and biomass production. Thus, the yields of these species in commercial herb farms should rise right along with future increases in the air's CO 2 content. The results of this study also indicate that the two plants respond favorably to atmospheric CO 2 concentrations that are much higher than anything realistically anticipated to result from the burning of fossil fuels."
## [2297] "This suite of \"aragonitic cold-water coral species,\" as the eleven researchers describe them, \"collectively show an overall trend of higher ??pH values that is anti-correlated with seawater pH, with systematics generally consistent with biologically controlled pH up-regulation.\" And this result indicates that, \"like symbiont-bearing tropical corals (Trotter et al ., 2011), they have the ability to ameliorate or buffer external changes in seawater pH by up-regulating their pH cf at the site of calcification.\""
## [2298] "The Arctic is getting greener as plant growth increases in response to a warmer climate. This greater plant growth means more carbon is stored in the increasing biomass, so it was previously thought the greening would result in more carbon dioxide being taken up from the atmosphere, thus helping to reduce the rate of global warming."
## [2299] "Levas et al . report that \"independent of temperature, DOC fluxes decreased significantly with increases in pCO 2 in both species, resulting in more DOC being retained by the corals and only representing between 19 and 6% of TOC fluxes for A. millepora and T. reniformis ,\" while at the same time POC fluxes were unaffected by elevated temperature and/or pCO 2 . And, thus, they were able to conclude that \"these findings add to a growing body of evidence that certain species of coral may be less at risk to the impacts of OA and temperature than previously thought.\""
## [2300] "Much has been said by Mr. Gore and other climate alarmists about rising ocean temperatures and sea levels as a result of rising CO2. If there is anything you can conclude about the tropical oceans from these calculations is that if external energy is supplied to the warmer oceans and air, most of it is expended evaporating water rather than raising the temperature. It is very difficult to raise the ocean temperatures in the tropics because of the much higher vapor pressures involved with the higher temperatures. And because the Clapeyron equation makes the vapor pressure rise as a function of an exponential increase in the reciprocal of temperature, it becomes a very powerful brake in mitigating a warming temperature by adding energy from any external source."
## [2301] "Compared to thyme plants grown in air of 350 ppm CO 2 , thyme plants grown in air of 3,000 ppm CO 2 produced 160% more fresh weight.?? Likewise, the fresh weights of spearmint and water mint plants rose by 150% and 220%, respectively, when grown at an atmospheric CO 2 concentration of 10,000 ppm as opposed to a concentration of 350 ppm. What it means"
## [2302] "??? The Fox Basin encompasses the northern end of the Hudson Bay. In 1996 studies estimated the bear population to be 2119 and then was raised to 2300 bears in 2004. The results from a recent aerial survey published in 2012 now estimate that the Fox Basin embraces about 2580 bears. Instead of listing this population as increasing, or at least stable, Derochers PBSG hid their thriving population with an odd data deficient designation."
## [2303] "That polar bears have survived through previous warm periods is not to say that polar bears will have an easy time of it this time around. Obviously, humans have constructed barriers that may impinge upon the bears preferred methods of adaptationwe hunt them, we relocate them, we destroy them if they become a nuisance to our civilization, a situation which may increase in frequency and intensity as the bears are forced to spend more time on land and less on the ice floes. But, nevertheless, the bears will do their best to keep up with a changing climate, just as they have done since their species grew separate from brown bears some 200,000 years ago."
## [2304] "And with a low-end temperature rise comes along low-end impacts. Seemingly good news for all!"
## [2305] "At ambient temperatures, the approximate 60% increase in the air's CO 2 concentration significantly increased latewood density by 27% and maximum wood density by 11%, while in the elevated-temperature treatment it significantly increased latewood density by 25% and maximum wood density by 15%. These changes led to mean overall CO 2 -induced wood density increases of 2.8% in the ambient-temperature treatment and 5.6% in the elevated-temperature treatment. What it means"
## [2306] "(4) For all the hype about the bleaching events on the GBR, most of the reef did not bleach and almost all that did bleach has almost fully recovered."
## [2307] "Then, in arguably the greatest bureaucratic overreach of all time, upon claiming that carbon dioxide is a pollutant subject to regulation under its Clean Air Act, the EPA declared war on emissions from stationary sources on the premise that it causes unhealthy climate change. Try to explain that to your begonias and those rain forests that depend upon the stuff."
## [2308] "The extra CO 2 eliminated the need for any sugar to be supplied to the plantlets, with shoot dry weight in the CO 2 -enriched air exceeding that in the ambient air by 120% in the non-sweetened treatment at the end of the in vitro period, and with root dry weight in the CO 2 -enriched air exceeding that in the ambient air by 350%. Likewise, at the end of the ex vitro period, the CO 2 -induced shoot and root dry weight increases in the non-sweetened treatment were 55% and 86%, respectively. What it means"
## [2309] "The ongoing rise in the airs CO2 content is causing a great greening of the Earth, the report adds. There is little or no risk of increasing food insecurity due to global warming or risingatmospheric CO2 levels."
## [2310] "This study demonstrates the ability of certain corals to cope with the environmental stresses of sub-aerial exposure, including high substrate and air temperatures and solar irradiance. The authors noted that \"tissue retraction in this species results in marked paling of color which has previously been interpreted as a bleaching response.\" Hence, it is possible that some reports of coral bleaching, particularly those based solely on satellite reflectance measurements, may not be real bleaching events."
## [2311] "Additionally, our estimates of climate sensitivity using our SCM and the four instrumental temperature records range from about 1.5 C to 2.0 C. These are on the low end of the estimates in the IPCCs Fourth Assessment Report. So, while we find that most of the observed warming is due to human emissions of LLGHGs, future warming based on these estimations will grow more slowly compared to that under the IPCCs likely range of climate sensitivity, from 2.0 C to 4.5 C. This makes it more likely that mitigation of human emissions will be able to hold the global temperature increase since pre-industrial time below 2 C, as agreed by the Confer- ence of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun."
## [2312] "In short, most of the forcing predicted by the IPCC is either an exaggeration or has already resulted in whatever temperature change it was going to cause. There is little global warming in the pipeline as a result of our past and present sins of emission."
## [2313] "Stott isnt alone. Within the past two years, at least seven peer-reviewed studies published in the scientific literature have concluded that the influence of doubling the amount of CO 2 in the Earths atmosphere is likely to be substantially lower than IPCC has determined and have ruled out the high-end projections."
## [2314] "As Nunavut government biologist Mitch Taylor observed in a front-page story in the Nunatsiaq News last month, the Inuit were right. There arent just a few more bears. There are a hell of a lot more bears."
## [2315] "Noting that \"many predictions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity assume a species-specific response to changing environments,\" Seebacher et al . proceed to argue, on the basis of their results, that \"this resolution can be too coarse and that analysis of the impacts of climate change and other environmental variability should be resolved to a population level,\" since their findings suggest that some populations of a species may indeed be able to cope with a change of climate with which others cannot, thereby preventing the otherwise inevitable climate-induced extinction of the species."
## [2316] "The five Chinese researchers report that \"both plant species grown under elevated CO 2 showed shoot and root dry weight biomass stimulation ranging from 6 to 102% and an increase of shoot and root Cs content ranging from 6 to 150%.\""
## [2317] "???This paper??s results concerning average seawater salinity and acidity show that, on a global scale and over the time scales considered (hundreds of years), there would not be accentuated changes in either seawater salinity or acidity from the observed or hypothesized rises in atmospheric CO2 concentrations.??"
## [2318] "Scientists, however, have increasingly been questioning alarmists, like Gore, and the U.S. government for listing the bears under the ESA. For starters, there are way more polar bears alive today than 40 years ago."
## [2319] "They say, Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plan and animal environments of the Earth."
## [2320] "If those reefs are surviving low aragonite and low pH conditions then that is definitely cause for optimism about the worlds tropical coral reefs and would be an exciting scientific breakthrough. the pH is low there due to the CO2 bubbling, then thats really important, and somebody should go and have a look, because that would refute what weve found We need to go out there and measure the chemistry of the water Id love to check that out. If there are a lot of bubbles coming up, and theres hard coral there, then its likely that my study is flawed."
## [2321] "Climate change has long been thought to be the main culprit in coral degradation. While it does pose a serious threat by making oceans more acidic and causing coral bleaching, the report shows that the loss of parrotfish and sea urchin the areas two main grazers has, in fact, been the key driver of coral decline in the region . An unidentified disease led to a mass mortality of the sea urchin in 1983 and extreme fishing throughout the 20th century has brought the parrotfish population to the brink of extinction in some regions. The loss of these species breaks the delicate balance of coral ecosystems and allows algae, on which they feed, to smother the reefs."
## [2322] "Evolutionary Biologist Shows Polar Bears Resilient to Climate Change"
## [2323] "Indeed, the authors of this paper find that \" CF is a primary modulator of warming (or cooling) in the atmosphere\" and that the net effect of more clouds produces a net negative-feedback cooling effect."
## [2324] "None of the early life-history stages we studied were consistently affected by reduced pH. Our results suggest that there will be no direct ecological effects of ocean acidification on the early life-history stages of reef corals, at least in the near future."
## [2325] "Finally, the degree of CO 2 -induced growth stimulation at which the aerial fertilization effect of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment eventually stabilizes is often significantly larger than the 12% value suggested by Bloom et al . for a doubling of the air's CO 2 content. In the still-ongoing long-term sour orange tree study of Idso and Kimball (2001) , for example, a smaller 75% increase in the air's CO 2 content has ultimately led to a stabilized CO 2 -induced growth enhancement of fully 80% (down from a peak value in excess of 200% experienced at the 2.5-year point of the study), which has been maintained for the past five years."
## [2326] "We show that there is a very modest degree of negative water-vapor feedback of 0.1 to 0.2 o C. With this occurring we should expect that the real amount of global warming that will occur from a doubling of CO 2 would be only about 0.2-0.3 o C or about 5-10 percent the amount projected by the many global models of 2-4 o C. The AGW threat and especially the catastrophic AGW (or CAGW) threat cannot be a realistic assertion of how the planets climate system functions."
## [2327] "Given their interest in grapes and elevated CO2, the team grew grapes in open-top chambers for three years (2004, 2005, 2006) with ambient (365 ppm) and elevated (500 ppm) atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Among many other findings, the team found that the elevated CO2 concentration increased net photosynthetic rate, intrinsic water use efficiency and leaf thicknessthe grapevines loved the higher levels of CO2! We know what you are thinking what about the yield? Well, in 2004, the elevated CO2 increased the yield by 50%, in 2005 by 27%, and in 2006 by 50%. Moutinho-Pereira et al. conclude The yield per vine showed a clear tendency to increase in elevated in the 3 growing seasons (P < 0.1) and this increase was mainly due to an increase in the average cluster weight. Well drink to that great news!"
## [2328] "There was no doubt that elevated O3 was bad for the plants, but the Burkey et al. team showed over and over that elevated CO2 restored the damage from caused by the ozone. From the perspective of the peanuts, O3 was definitely a pollutant while CO2 was a white knight ameliorating the damage from O3. If you are concerned about the quality of the nuts, relax as the researchers report Gas treatment effects on peanut market grade characteristics were small. No treatment effects were observed on the protein and oil contents of seeds. In their conclusions section, they reinforce the idea that elevated CO2 will increase yield without any decline in quality."
## [2329] "I, and a number of other scientists, believe that nature has a thermostatic control mechanism that pushes back against a warming influence, such as the relatively weak warming from more atmospheric carbon dioxide. (The direct warming effect of more CO 2 would amount to little more than 1 deg. F by late in this century, and is generally not the subject of debate.)"
## [2330] "???However, in Palau wherever the water is most acidic, we see the opposite. There??s a coral community that is more diverse, hosts more species and has greater coral cover than in the non-acidic sites."
## [2331] "The second system is the impact on the biosphere itself. While carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that tends to trap the sun??s radiation, it is also a vital fertilizer that stimulates plant growth and consequently enhances the food supplies for all the animals, insects, funghi and bacteria which live on and around them."
## [2332] "It turns out that far from being a stable pH, spots all over the world are constantly changing. One spot in the ocean varied by an astonishing 1.4 pH units regularly. All our human emissions are projected by models to change the worlds oceans by about 0.3 pH units over the next 90 years, and thats referred to as catastrophic"
## [2333] "The authors conclude that \"the combination of higher root yields at elevated CO 2 combined with a decrease in root decomposition will lead to a longer residence time of C in the soil and probably to a higher C storage.\" These facts, they say, \"should be taken into account in models predicting the fate of C under different scenarios for climatic change.\" And so they should; for this is a phenomenon that cannot be ignored in this most important enterprise."
## [2334] "This derivation of (t) does not assume any given equilibrium between ingress and egress; the only hypothesis made is that the absorption grows with due to fertilization of the air by CO 2 : more food, bigger plants and quicker growth, more leafs and so on; see on notice n2 in the footnotes the references of some observations made during the last fifty years."
## [2335] "Although long-term fertilization of nine years decreased plant diversity, it increased plant productivity; and this phenomenon caused an increase in arthropod species richness by significantly increasing the numbers of parasite and predator species. Short-term fertilization also increased plant productivity, but without reducing plant diversity; and it too significantly increased arthropod diversity by increasing the species richness of herbivores, parasites, and predators. These results demonstrate that increases in plant productivity lead to increases in the diversity of organisms higher up the food chain, such as herbivores, parasites and predators. What it means"
## [2336] "The data in this paper suggest that future increases in the air's CO 2 concentration will enhance photosynthesis and biomass production in many C 4 grass species, regardless of their photosynthetic sub-type. In addition, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment should enhance C 4 grass water-use efficiency, perhaps allowing C 4 grasses to expand their ranges into more arid habitats where their survival is currently limited by insufficient soil moisture availability."
## [2337] "In concluding their report, Uthicke et al . write that they found support for the likelihood that \"increased land runoff since the start of land clearing and agriculture in the catchment of the Whitsunday Region of the GBR has left a signature in the foraminiferal assemblages of inner and intermediate areas of the study area,\" when previously the assemblages of these areas had been \"persistent for at least several thousand years.\" In addition, and based on the fact that \"no changes were observed on outer reefs located away from land runoff,\" they propose that \"changes observed on inner and intermediate reefs were mainly driven by enhanced agricultural runoff after European settlement.\" And topping off everything else, they affirm that \"the hypothesis that global forcing, such as sea temperature increase or ocean acidification, altered the foraminiferal community found little support.\" In fact, it found none."
## [2338] "Irrespective of whatever mechanisms may have been involved in eliciting the responses observed, Bunce logically concludes that \"the parallel responses of translocation and nitrate reduction for both the temperature and CO 2 treatments make it unlikely that the response of respiration to one variable was an artifact while the response to the other was real.\" Hence, there is every reason to believe that the typically observed decreases in dark respiration experienced by plants exposed to elevated levels of atmospheric CO 2 are indeed real and not the result of defects of the measurement system. This being the case, it can be appreciated that plant growth is not only enhanced by CO 2 -induced increases in photosynthesis during the light period of the day, they are also enhanced by CO 2 -induced decreases in respiration during the dark period. Reference"
## [2339] "As the CO 2 content of the air continues to rise, winter wheat seed production will likely increase without exhibiting any changes in seed viability. And if air temperatures also rise, seed viability may actually increase ."
## [2340] "The plants will do fine. After all, they will enjoy the extra CO2 (plant food) and the daily effluence of bilge (fertilizer) from scaremonger AGW propagandists."
## [2341] "Trees are growing at an accelerated rate due to global warming, scientists conclude in a new peer-reviewed study. The study documents faster tree growth in recent decades and concludes longer growing seasons and rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are stimulating the benefits.A team of European forestry scientists analyzed growth rates of Norway spruce and European beech trees ??? the dominant tree species in Central Europe ??? since 1870. The scientists discovered both species are growing substantially faster since 1960 than in the decades before 1960. Norway spruce trees are growing a healthy 32 percent faster since 1960, while European beech trees are growing an astounding 77 percent faster since 1970. Boosted by this accelerated growth, the volume of Norway spruce stands is increasing 10 percent faster than prior to 1960, while the volume of European beech stands is increasing 30 percent faster than prior to 1960."
## [2342] "After 2.5 years of atmospheric CO 2 exposure, seedlings fumigated with air containing 700 ppm CO 2 exhibited rates of net photosynthesis that were 128 and 31% greater than those of control seedlings growing on soils containing high and low nitrogen contents, respectively. Neither elevated CO 2 nor soil nitrogen content, however, had any significant effects on seedling stomatal conductances . In addition, rates of dark respiration were increased by 22 and 9% in CO 2 -enriched seedlings growing on soils containing high and low nitrogen contents, respectively. Nonetheless, the net direction of carbon flow was into and not out of seedlings, as indicated by 34 and 13% increases in total dry mass production for seedlings growing on nitrogen-rich and nitrogen-poor soils, respectively. In addition, elevated CO 2 increased seedling stem density by 23 and 13% at low and high levels of soil nitrogen, respectively."
## [2343] "Based on real-world knowledge of how earth's plant life responds to increases in air temperature and atmospheric CO 2 concentration (or the best approximations of it available at the time), this study predicts dramatic increases in biospheric prowess , as recent historical trends of these two parameters continue into the future. Hence, it is not surprising that the authors state that \"caution should be taken in using these NEP results in policy discussions relevant to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions and carbon taxes.\" Sure . If they were included, it would indicate that carbon taxes to reduce CO 2 emissions are totally absurd , as CO 2 emissions - and even temperature increases - are a tremendous help to the biosphere. And that admission would not be politically correct."
## [2344] "Rising CO2 will increase plant growth leading in turn to increased water vapour. This appears to be one of the best candidates for substantial positive feedback."
## [2345] "Polar bears are extremely unlikely to go extinct. But imagine, just for the sake of an argument, that the Arctic is going to warm up sufficiently for them to get drowned. Can we save them?"
## [2346] "In commenting on their primary findings of reduced percentages of leaves experiencing asymmetry in the presence of elevated levels of atmospheric CO 2 and the lesser degree of asymmetry exhibited by affected leaves in the elevated CO 2 treatment, Cornelissen et al . say that \"a possible explanation for this pattern is the fact that, in contrast to other environmental stresses, which can cause negative effects on plant growth, the predominant effect of elevated CO 2 on plants is to promote growth with consequent reallocation of resources (Docherty et al ., 1996).\" Another possibility they discuss \"is the fact that CO 2 acts as a plant fertilizer,\" and, as a result, that \"elevated CO 2 ameliorates plant stress compared with ambient levels of CO 2 ,\" which is one of the well-documented biological benefits of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment (Idso and Idso, 1994)."
## [2347] "We recommend that if the DGAC insists on including a discussion of greenhouse gas emissions (and thus climate change) in it 2015 Dietary Guidelines, that the current discussion be supplemented, or preferably replaced, with a more accurate and applicable one one that indicates that carbon dioxide has widespread and near-universal positive benefits on the supply of food we eat, and that attempting to limit future climate change through dietary choice is misguided and unproductive. These changes must be made prior to the issuance of the final guidelines."
## [2348] "As the CO 2 content of the air rises, it is likely that the photosynthetic rates of soybeans will also rise, leading to significant increases in seed yield. In addition, if plant breeders utilize the highly CO 2 -responsive ancestral cultivar identified in this study in their breeding programs, it is possible that soybean seed yields could be made to rise even faster in the days and years ahead."
## [2349] "But in the last several weeks, we have stumbled upon clear and convincing observational evidence of particularly strong negative feedback (low climate sensitivity) from our latest and best satellite instruments. That evidence includes our development of two new methods for extracting the feedback signal from either observational or climate model data, a goal which has been called the holy grail of climate research."
## [2350] "A long-term study rebuts the Progressive Nitrogen Limitation Hypothesis, revealing that there is good real-world experimental evidence to suggest that the growth-enhancing effect of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment will not gradually wind down with the passage of time due to declining availability of soil nitrogen, in strong contradiction of what many climate alarmists have suggested?? Read More"
## [2351] "The four researchers report that the 84% increase in the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration stimulated the growth of S. maritima by about 65% in all three salinity treatments, while the graphical representation of the halophyte's water use efficiency indicates that this important property of the plant was enhanced by approximately 10%, 100% and 160% in the 0, 170 and 510 mM salinity treatments, respectively, due to the fact that \"increasing CO 2 concentration has a positive effect on the photochemical apparatus, helping to counteract salt stress experienced by plants at current CO 2 concentrations.\""
## [2352] "In discussing their findings, Darbah et al . state that they agree with those of Veteli et al . (2007), who \"reported that elevated CO 2 ameliorated the negative effects of high temperature in three deciduous tree species,\" as well as those of Wayne et al . (1998), who \"reported that elevated CO 2 ameliorated high temperature stress in yellow birch trees,\" and that all of these observations are \"in agreement with Idso and Kimball (1992), who reported that elevated CO 2 (ambient + 300 ppm) increased net photosynthetic rate in sour orange tree leaves exposed to full sunlight by 75, 100 and 200% compared to those in ambient CO 2 concentration at temperatures of 31, 35 and 42C, respectively, suggesting that elevated CO 2 ameliorates heat stress in tree leaves.\" Hence, they conclude that \"in the face of rising atmospheric CO 2 and temperature (global warming), trees will benefit from elevated CO 2 through increased thermotolerance.\""
## [2353] "Rising temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels do not pose a significant threat to aquatic life. Many aquatic species have shown considerable tolerance to temperatures and CO2 values predicted for the next few centuries, and many have demonstrated a likelihood of positive responses in empirical studies. Any projected adverse impacts of rising temperatures or declining seawater and freshwater pH levels (acidification) will be largely mitigated through phenotypic adaptation or evolution during the many decades to centuries it is expected to take for pH levels to fall."
## [2354] "If one accepts the IPCC radiative forcing values of anthropogenic radiative forcings of +1.6 (+0.6 to +2.4) Watts per meter squared and/or the solar radiative forcing of +0.12 (+0.06 to +0.30) Watts per meter squared as correct, what the Levitus et al data shows is that theglobal radiative feedback isnegative(and this necessarily would include the water vapor, sea ice etc radiative feedbacks). That is"
## [2355] "Note further that the dreaded (and entirely arbitrary) +2.0 C warming is not achievable with CO 2 increases and this is easily calculated. 2.0/0.1 = 20 so we know we need 20W/m 2 to increase the surface temperature that much and 20/3.7 tells us we need to double atmospheric CO 2 5.4 times to achieve it. Quick calc then since doubling is simply powers of 2, 2 8 = 256 ppm CO 2 , approximating our pre-Industrial Revolution level, plus 5 more doublings to raise the temperature +2.0 C, 2 13 = 8,192 ppm CO 2 . Whoops!"
## [2356] "Although not many significant interactions of elevated CO 2 on tree growth were found, elevated CO 2 still increased whole plant and root biomass in all species studied from 19 to 56%, relative to control trees grown at ambient CO 2 . In addition, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment increased the number of root tips per plant by 56, 38, and 49% for birch, hemlock and pine saplings, respectively. This phenomenon clearly presented fungal organisms with increased root areas to colonize. CO 2 -enriched birch and pine saplings, for example, had 13 and 38% more root area colonized by ectomycorrhizal fungal species than their ambiently-grown counterparts, and CO 2 -enriched hemlock exhibited 47% more arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization than its respective controls."
## [2357] "In concluding their discussion of their findings, Allen et al . remark that \"undisturbed arid shrublands may not fix comparatively large amounts of carbon, but they may sequester a large fraction of that carbon.\" Noting that \"carbon allocated to arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi forms a large part of the macroaggregate structure in the form of glomalin (Rillig et al ., 2002),\" and that those aggregates \"may be protected from decomposition,\" they conclude that the enhanced formation of such aggregates in CO 2 -enriched air forms \"an important sequestration pathway\" in chaparral ecosystems. Hence, we have another example of \"biological pessimism\" being far removed from reality. References"
## [2358] "The IPCC believes that water vapor increases with temperature, acting as a positive feedback, further increasing temperature. But this is not happening. Global weather balloon data shows that water vapor has been decreasing over time, not increasing."
## [2359] "If f is net-negative, sensitivity falls still further. Monckton of Brenchley, 2015 (click Most Read Articles at www.scibull.com ) suggest that the thermostasis of the climate over the past 810,000 years and the incompatibility of high net-positive feedback with the Bode system-gain relation indicate a net-negative feedback sum on the interval 0.64 W m 2 K 1 . In that event, applying Eq. (1) at the surface gives climate sensitivity on the interval 0.7 K."
## [2360] "In the latter category, for example, the acknowledgment that the uptake of CO2 by the land and oceans is very poorly understood is tantamount to saying that it is not possible to predict with any confidence the future concentration levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. It certainly leaves open the possibility that the uptake of CO2 by land and oceans will be considerably higher than the extreme 25% rate projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (it is currently 50%). If that happened it would mean that concentrations of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) would reach supposedly dangerous levels at a significantly later date than the alarmists are predicting and temperatures would rise less."
## [2361] "Soil particulate organic carbon content was increased under atmospheric CO 2 enrichment, as was the potential for the sequestration of a greater proportion of unstable carbon. Also increased were the amounts of dissolved carbon and humic and fulvic acids present in the soil solution. Elevated ozone levels tended to produce the opposite effects; but they were usually overpowered by the effects of elevated CO 2 . What it means"
## [2362] "The four researchers report that \"none of the plants grown under high levels of CO 2 for 90 days presented either significant differences in fresh weight and dry weight compared with controls, or macroscopic alteration of morphogenesis (number and length of nodes/internodes, branching, leaf area and chlorosis, etc.), at any of the sampling times.\" However , they did find that \"in plants grown under elevated CO 2 , a relative increase in oil yield of 32, 34 and 32% was, respectively, recorded in the first, second and third sampling-time (July, August and September),\" and they observed a \"general depression of the oxidative stress under elevated CO 2 \" that led to a \"down-regulation of leaf reactive oxygen species-scavenging enzymes under elevated CO 2 .\" What it means"
## [2363] "Next, Monckton discusses the Stefan-Boltzmann equation and the huge range of temperature changes published in the literature for a doubling of CO2. Moncktons own calculation, based on IPCC 2007, is 1.6C for a doubling of CO2, but the IPCC says 3C. He points out that Svante Arrhenius calculated a 4C to 8C temperature change for a doubling of CO2 in 1896, but in 1906, he had the Stefan-Boltzmann equation available to him and re-calculated everything to give 1.6C."
## [2364] "Using data collected between 1976 and 2008, the authors conclude that a longer growing season has boosted marmots?? individual size, overall strength and general population. The average weight of fully grown marmots jumped from 6.82 pounds in the early years of the study to 7.56 pounds in the later half of the study."
## [2365] "CO 2 -induced increases in plant biomass ranged from 13 to 100%, depending on root temperature and nitrogen amount and source, with the greatest responses being recorded in the nitrate-fed plants. What it means"
## [2366] "Butterflies are often mentioned as being particularly sensitive to climate change. Yet a recent one-day record for butterfly diversity in northwestern Connecticut suggests current climate is more hospitable than ever."
## [2367] "\"Along both temperate and tropical rocky shores,\" in the words of the five scientists, \"there was a reduction in sea urchin abundances alongside a proliferation of Padina spp., as CO 2 levels increased.\" In the case of sea urchins, in fact, they discovered that the predators were actually absent in locations having the highest CO 2 levels (lowest pH); while in the case of the Padina spp., they found that \"even in the lowest pH conditions, P. pavonica and P. australis were still able to calcify, seemingly from the enhancement of photosynthesis under high levels of CO 2 .\" What it means"
## [2368] "First of all, Ries et al . observed that \"following the initial acclimation phase, survivorship in each experimental treatment was 100%,\" while last of all, in regard to the corals' rates of calcification and linear extension, they say that \"no significant difference was detected relative to the control treatment (?? A = 2.6) for corals reared under ?? A of 2.3 and 1.6,\" which latter values correspond to pH reductions from current conditions of 0.08 and 0.26, respectively. And it is enlightening to note that the 0.26 pH reduction is approximately twice the maximum reduction derived from the analysis of Tans (2009) that would likely result from the burning of all fossil fuels in the crust of the earth . What it means"
## [2369] "So when presented with warmer and drier conditions, trees in the Pacific Northwest appear to use less water and therefore the impact on streamflow is reduced, she added. In other parts of the country, forest regrowth after past logging and hurricanes thus far has a more definitive signal in streamflow reduction than have warming temperatures."
## [2370] "The Earth has proven much less succeptible to runaway warming than previously believed. The so-called indirect trapping by evaporated water has been overstated by warming alarmists. (Source: Alaska in Pictures)"
## [2371] "Here . Excerpt: OTTAWA (Reuters) - Leaders of Canada's Arctic Inuit people denounced U.S. environmentalists on Monday for pushing Washington to declare the polar bear a threatened species, saying the move was unnecessary and would hurt the local economy."
## [2372] "The three Chinese researchers concluded that because \"both the number and the size of turion, the most important storage and reproductive organ, increased significantly\" in the elevated CO 2 treatment, this phenomenon would enhance the \"population-increasing rate of V. spinulosa ... in the next growth season and would benefit its dominant species role.\" Reviewed 22 March 2006"
## [2373] "An assumed radiative forcing of 4 W/m2 would thus lead to a warming of 4/15 C, which is less than 0.3 C, thus a factor 10 smaller than IPCC's most likely value of 3 C."
## [2374] "Empirical evidence shows that Earth is currently greening significantly due to additional CO2 and a modest warming."
## [2375] "What a difference that extra 120 ppm has made for plants, and for animals and humans that depend on them. The more carbon dioxide there is in the atmosphere, the more it is absorbed by plants of every description - and the faster and better they grow, even under adverse conditions like limited water, extremely hot air temperatures, or infestations of insects, weeds and other pests. As trees, grasses, algae and crops grow more rapidly and become healthier and more robust, animals and humans enjoy better nutrition on a planet that is greener and greener."
## [2376] "It turns out that the belief in a sensitive climate is not because of the observational evidence, but in spite of it. You can start to learn more about the evidence for low climate sensitivity (negative feedbacks) here ."
## [2377] "In concluding the report of their research, the five Portuguese scientists say they \"can state that although C. siliqua seedlings exhibit clear signs of oxidative stress under drought and high temperature, they retain a remarkable ability to quickly restore normal physiological activity upon rehydration, which let us believe that they can satisfactorily deal with predicted climate warming and increased soil drying in the Mediterranean area.\""
## [2378] "As the atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, it is likely that wheat plants will begin to reap benefits from this phenomenon almost immediately after seedling emergence. Rising CO 2 levels should increase cell division and elongation, thus spurring leaf expansion and biomass production to a greater degree than what is occurring under today's ambient CO 2 concentration. Thus, it is likely that these collective responses will result in larger plants, which should also produce greater harvestable yields, as the CO 2 content of the air continues to rise."
## [2379] "I reviewed the climate sensitivity estimates of the Fourth Assessment Report and noted that only Forster and Gregory 2006 was free of the influence of models. I then observed that once one had replaced the IPCC's fiddled figure for the Forster and Gregory estimate with the value those authors had actually calculated one could see that the range of estimates used in the the PAGE model (the one used by Stern) did not even include the range of Forster and Gregory."
## [2380] "GPP is Gross Primary Production , a measure of the daily output of the global biosphere ???the amount of new plant matter on land. NPP is Net Primary Production, an annual tally of the globe??s production. Biomass is booming. The planet is the greenest it??s been in decades, perhaps in centuries."
## [2381] "Pelejero et al . report \"there is no notable trend toward lower ?? 11 B values\" over the 300-year period investigated. Instead, they say that \"the dominant feature of the coral ?? 11 B record is a clear interdecadal oscillation of pH, with ?? 11 B values ranging between 23 and 25 per mil (7.9 and 8.2 pH units),\" which \"is synchronous with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.\" Furthermore, they calculated changes in aragonite saturation state from the Flinders pH record that varied between ~3 and 4.5, which values encompass \"the lower and upper limits of aragonite saturation state within which corals can survive.\" Despite this fact, they report that \"skeletal extension and calcification rates for the Flinders Reef coral fall within the normal range for Porites and are not correlated with aragonite saturation state or pH .\" What it means"
## [2382] "The results of this study, plus those of the prior studies that provide input for it, suggest that continued increases in the air's CO 2 content and temperature imply nothing but good for the world's semiarid grassland ecosystems. References"
## [2383] "The authors of an intriguing research report, which was recently published in Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta , write that \"for cold-water corals, which are already living at low levels of carbonate saturation, the shoaling of the saturation horizon as carbonate saturation states decrease has the potential to cause dramatic declines in rates of calcification, or the dissolution of the carbonate skeletons of those living at or close to the saturation horizon.\" But since these corals are indeed living there , they speculate that \"they may have evolved adaptive strategies to counter the effects of low carbonate saturation states,\" one of which is to up-regulate their internal pH to a value that allows calcification to occur."
## [2384] "Kroeker et al . report that \"although high CO 2 significantly reduced mussel growth at 14??C, this effect gradually lessened with successive warming to 20??C, illustrating how moderate warming can mediate the effects of OA through temperature's effects on both physiology and seawater geochemistry.\" In addition, they found that \"the mussels grew thicker shells in warmer conditions independent of CO 2 treatment,\" and that \"together, these results highlight the importance of considering the physiological and geochemical interactions between temperature and carbonate chemistry,\" especially when assessing a species vulnerability to OA."
## [2385] "Thus, if the 'simple basic physics' of radiative forcing from CO2 are correct, this forcing is overwhelmed by net-negative feedbacks, contraryto the net positive feedback predictions of climate models . Alternatively, the radiative forcing from CO2 may be greatly exaggerated. Either way, observations show that the net effect of increased CO2 levels is about 8 times less than predicted by the 'simple basic physics' of the anthropogenic global warming theory."
## [2386] "Because of the fact that \"the relative stimulation of total plant biomass in response to elevated CO 2 levels was higher in salt-stressed plants than in non-stressed ones,\" Perez-Lopez et al . state that \"barley plants subjected to elevated CO 2 levels will likely overcome mild saline conditions.\" And with the need to produce approximately twice the amount of food that is produced now to adequately feed the projected human population of the planet by mid-century (Running, 2012), we are going to need all the help we can get; and the boost in barley productivity (as well as that of many other crop plants) provided by mankind's CO 2 enrichment of the atmosphere will be crucial if we are to be successful in this endeavor."
## [2387] "Clouds around the world may be falling in response to rising global temperatures and having a cooling effect on global warming, according to analysis of satellite data by Auckland University scientists."
## [2388] "1. An international team of 33 researchers found that, with warming, when species were rare in a local area, they had a higher survival rate than when they were common, resulting in enrichment for rare species and increasing diversity with age and size class in these complex ecosystems."
## [2389] "Coral reefs suffer mass mortality because of coral bleaching, disease, and tropical storms, but we know much more about when, where, and how rapidly these ecosystems have collapsed than we do about their recovery. Gilmour et al. (p. 69 ; see the Perspective by Polidoro and Carpenter ) studied a highly isolated coral reef before and after a climate-induced mass mortality event that killed 70 to 90% of the reef corals. The initial recovery of coral cover involved growth and survival of remnant colonies, which was followed by increases in larval recruitment. Thus, in the absence of chronic disturbance, even isolated reefs can recover from catastrophic disturbance."
## [2390] "Now once again, dubious science is pushing pikas as another canary in the climate coal mine. the evidence has not supported the pikas demise, Stewart (2015) constructed a model that would and published their projections in Revisiting The Past To Foretell The Future: Summer Temperature And Habitat Area Predict Pika Extirpations In California . These researchers predict that by 2070 pikas will be extirpated from 39% to 88% of Californias historical sites. And once again the media is hyping that pikas are being pushed up the mountains to their doom."
## [2391] "Carbonic acid does not however make the water more acidic easily. Don??t forget that pH measures the concentration of hydrogen ions in solution. So of the 1.2*10^-3 moles of carbonic acid/ mole of CO2/liter only 2.5*10^-4 moles/mole/mole of hydrogen Ion are produced. This forms the bicarbonate Ion."
## [2392] "Among the studies not cited by the EPA are two that examine the feedback issue empirically and find support for a conclusion opposite to that made by the GCMs (see Lindzen, p.4; Carlin, pp.13-27). It looks like the models have the wrong sign on the feedbackit is not positive but negative, which reduces any warming by carbon dioxide rather than amplifying it. In short, carbon dioxide may not be an air pollutant after all."
## [2393] "Lindzen thinks the true number is closer to -1, which is similar to the number I backed into from temperature history over the last 100 years . This would imply that feedback actually works to reduce the net effect of greenhouse warming, from a sensitivity of 1.2 to one something like 0.6C per doubling."
## [2394] "Of all of the world's chemical compounds, none has a worse reputation than carbon dioxide. Thanks to the single-minded demonization of this natural and essential atmospheric gas by advocates of government control of energy production, the conventional wisdom about carbon dioxide is that it is a dangerous pollutant. That's simply not the case. Contrary to what some would have us believe, increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will benefit the increasing population on the planet by increasing agricultural productivity."
## [2395] "But seriously, what about ocean acidification? Its worth noting that fears of ocean acidification are largely theoretical and calculated, rather than based on empirical evidence. Some corals grown in very high levels of CO 2 thrived. When one research team reconstructed ocean pH levels with boron isotopes in corals, they found no noteable trend over the last 300 years or the last 6000 years. Atmospheric CO 2 levels may have risen 30% recently, but at least in that marker, theres no clear relationship between ocean acidity and atmospheric CO2. Other researchers found warmer temperatures increased calcification along the full length of the Great Barrier Reef."
## [2396] "\"the IPCC argues that feedbacks from increased water evaporation will lead to enhanced warming. This is not observed in those regions most effected by water vapour. In fact the opposite seems to be the case implying negative feedback.\""
## [2397] "CO 2 is clearly up to the task of ameliorating the negative effects of SO 2 pollution on leaf photosynthetic rates of soybeans and then some , as it boosted rates even higher than they were in the total absence of the pollutant. References"
## [2398] "From Andrew Bolt at Australia??s Herald Sun below, some sharp evidence in a new paper that the ???coral bleaching?? scare of the Great Barrier Reef is unfounded and mostly made up."
## [2399] "A new study suggests that some coral reefs could be protected from bleaching by a natural ocean thermostat that regulates sea surface temperatures in the western pacific warm pool."
## [2400] "Thats true. The picture above shows how low the islands are to the surface of the sea. Theres no question theyre vulnerable to sea level rise, as they have been for several hundreds or thousands of years, since their ancestors arrived there. But what does the Australian expert not tell us? He doesnt say that it will take 200 to 600 years for the sea to rise another 600 mm, during which time the coral will grow and push the islands higher. Thats why coral atolls are still at the sea surface, even though the sea level has gone up about 130 metres (426 ft) since the last ice age."
## [2401] "\"Interestingly,\" as Appelhans et al . conclude, \"the enhanced vulnerability of mussels seems to be neutralized by the decreased consumption of the predators under high acidification.\" And they say that \"these results illustrate that different stress effects on interacting species may not only enhance but also buffer community level effects,\" further emphasizing that \"when stress effects are similar (and weak) on interacting species, biotic interactions may remain unaffected.\""
## [2402] "Studies involving 28 million weather balloons, thousands of satellite recordings, 3,000 ocean buoys, temperature recordings from 50 sites in the US and a 1,000 years of temperature proxies suggest that the Global Climate Models overestimate positive feedback and are based on poor assumptions. Observations suggest lower values for climate sensitivity whether we study long-term humidity, upper tropospheric temperature trends, outgoing long wave radiation, cloud cover changes, or the changes in the heat content of the vast oceans."
## [2403] "The eight Spanish researchers report that \"no apparent pH-driven effects were observed in the skeletal growth rate, micro-density and porosity of both species compared to control conditions after six months of exposure,\" which results they say \"are in accordance with two previous mid-term studies assessing the effects of OA on these same species, where no differences were observed after 6 months in L. pertusa (Form and Riebesell, 2012) or 9 months of exposure in L. pertusa and M. oculata (Maier et al ., 2013).\""
## [2404] "Corals have survived such warmth and worse many times in the past, including the Medieval Warm Period, Roman Warm Period, Holocene Optimum, as well as throughout numerous similar periods during a number of prior interglacial periods; and there is no reason to believe they cannot do it again, if the need arises."
## [2405] "In a synthesis of long term ecological monitoring data across old growth Amazonia, Phillips et al (2008) find that from approximately 1988 to 2000 not only that the biomass of these tropical forests increased but that they have become more dynamic, that is, they have more stems, faster recruitment, faster mortality, faster growth and more lianas. These increases have occurred across regions and environmental gradients and through time for the lowland Neotropics and Amazonia. They note that the simplest explanation for this suite of results is that improved resource availability has increased net primary productivity, in turn increasing growth rates, which can all be explained by a long-term increase in a limiting resource. They suggest that this no-longer-limiting resource might be CO 2 , although other factors (e.g., insolation or diffuse radiation) may also play a role."
## [2406] "A key problem in determining changes and influences of water vapor concentrations in the Earths atmosphere is that they are extremely variable. Differences range by orders of magnitude in various places. Instead, alarmists sweep the problem to one side by simply calling it a CO 2 feedback amplification effect, always assuming that the dominant feedback is positive (warming) rather than negative (cooling). In reality, due to clouds and other factors, those feedbacks could go both ways, and no one knows for sure which direction dominates climate over the long run."
## [2407] "Professor Ray Bates gave a paper in Moscow in summer 2015 in which he concluded, based on the analysis by Lindzen & Choi (2009, 2011) (Fig. T10), that temperature feedbacks are net-negative. Accordingly, he supports the conclusion both by Lindzen & Choi (1990) (Fig. T10) and by Spencer & Braswell (2010, 2011) that climate sensitivity is below and perhaps considerably below 1 C per CO2 doubling."
## [2408] "In contrast, L. pertusa was capable to acclimate to acidified conditions in long-term (six months) incubations, leading to even slightly enhanced rates of calcification . Net growth is sustained even in waters sub-saturated with respect to aragonite. Acclimation to seawater acidification did not cause a measurable increase in metabolic rates . This is the first evidence of successful acclimation in a coral species to ocean acidification, emphasizing the general need for long-term incubations in ocean acidification research. To conclude on the sensitivity of cold-water coral reefs to future ocean acidification further ecophysiological studies are necessary which should also encompass the role of food availability and rising temperatures."
## [2409] "A new study by Canadian scientists once again debunks the notion polar bears are currently being harmed by global warming. Researchers with Canada's Lakehead University found \"no evidence\" polar bears are currently threatened by warming."
## [2410] "Water vapor feedback exactly fits the feedback alteration of the input shown in the feedback schematic. The greenhouse-gas (ghg) atmospheric heat from CO2 produced water vapor can also heat the atmosphere by its own ghg effect. But its production removes more heat from the atmosphere than its added ghg effect can replace. Its presence also cools the atmosphere (see Figures 5, 6 and 7). It has its own negative saturation feedback and also augments CO2s negative saturation feedback. The analysis presented here shows that it has a universal and significant negative feedback."
## [2411] "Within six days after planting, photosynthetic rates of second leaves of CO 2 -enriched plants were 37% greater than those of second leaves of ambiently-grown plants. This CO 2 -induced photosynthetic enhancement slowly declined over the growing season, stabilizing around 15% for the time period between 23 and 60 days after planting. In addition, when measuring photosynthetic rates at reduced oxygen concentrations of 2%, the authors observed 16 and 9% increases in photosynthesis for ambient and CO 2 -enriched plants, respectively, indicating that elevated CO 2 was reducing photorespiratory carbon losses. Even so, this phenomenon could not fully account for the CO 2 -induced stimulation of photosynthesis. Thus, after further investigation, the authors suggested that elevated CO 2 might have decreased CO 2 leakage from specialized bundle sheath cells, which concentrate CO 2 internally to promote photosynthetic carboxylation reactions by the enzyme rubisco . What it means"
## [2412] "As demonstrated here, and in numerous additional reviews of other experiments posted on our website (found under the topics ??? and sub-topics ??? of Ocean Acidification and Ocean Acidification and Warming in our Subject Index ), for many species, ocean acidification will be a non-problem ?? and maybe even a blessing!"
## [2413] "But the whole disappearing sea ice threatens polar bears survival story is in reality a farce."
## [2414] "The eight researchers, all from Portugal, report that the growth of the mussels, measured as relative increases in shell size and body weight during the 84 days of the experiment, \"did not differ among treatments.\" In fact, they say that a tendency for faster shell growth under elevated CO 2 was apparent, \"at least during the first 60 days of exposure.\" In the case of calcification , however, they indicate that this process was reduced, but by only up to 9% . Yet even here they state that \"given that growth was unaffected, the mussels clearly maintained the ability to lay down CaCO 3 , which suggests post-deposition dissolution as the main cause for the observed loss of shell mass.\" Last of all, with respect to mortality , Range et al . write that \"mortality of the juvenile mussels during the 84 days was small (less than 10%) and was unaffected by the experimental treatments.\""
## [2415] "Because the two experiments yielded nearly identical results, we will focus our discussion on experiment two, since it was of greater duration.?? Elevated CO 2 apparently reduced rates of transpiration in all seedlings shortly after the start of the experiment.?? After 30 days of differential CO 2 exposure, seedlings growing at 700 ppm displayed shoot water potential values that were nearly 40% higher (less negative and thus less stressful) than those measured in seedlings growing at ambient CO 2 .?? At the end of the 82-day dry-down, elevated CO 2 had significantly increased seedling root and shoot biomass by 37 and 46%, respectively, regardless of the region from where the seeds they sprouted originated.?? Moreover, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment more than doubled seedling survivorship under drought conditions without significantly favoring one genotype over another. What it means"
## [2416] "These three points are that (1) \"rapid evolution is common,\" that (2) \"genetic divergence occurs along a variety of gradients, including those affected by global change,\" and that (3) \"genetic divergence in a variety of species can impact ongoing species interactions, community structure, biodiversity and ecosystem function.\""
## [2417] "And as I mentioned at the outset, if climate sensitivity is low, then the warming effect of more CO2 (as well as the cooling effect of any geoengineering fixes to the problem) will have little effect on global temperatures, anyway."
## [2418] "Read here . Actual real world research of peer reviewed literature finds that island atolls continue to gain shore line - \"reef islands exhibit a degree of physical resilience.\" Virtual climate model predictions are incorrect."
## [2419] "It turns out that there is a much more fundamental and unambiguous check of the role of feedbacks in enhancing greenhouse warming that also shows that all models are greatly exaggerating climate sensitivity. Here, it must be noted that the greenhouse effect operates by inhibiting the cooling of the climate by reducing net outgoing radiation. However, the contribution of increasing CO2 alone does not, in fact, lead to much warming (approximately 1 deg. C for each doubling of CO2)."
## [2420] "The term carbon pollution is a pejorative term that displays ignorance by those who use it. In reality, the public debate is about the magnitude of the warming effect exercised by human carbon dioxide emissions. Carbon dioxide from whatever source is an environmental benefice that sustains most of the ecosystems on planet Earth."
## [2421] "Photosynthetic rates of sub-ambiently-grown seedlings measured 12 to 22 days after transfer to 350 ppm CO 2 tended to be greater than those displayed by control plants raised exclusively at 350 ppm CO 2 , while seedlings grown at 800 ppm CO 2 and transferred to 350 ppm CO 2 exhibited photosynthetic rates that tended to be lower than those observed in the control seedlings. Nevertheless, seedlings initially grown at elevated CO 2 concentrations attained whole plant dry mass values that were 14% greater than those reached by control plants, while seedlings initially grown at the subambient CO 2 concentration attained values that were 24% lower than those measured in control seedlings. What it means"
## [2422] "\"Climate sensitivity estimated from the is 1.1 0.4 C ...compared with the IPCC central value of 3 C.\""
## [2423] "Since 2000, water vapor in the stratosphere decreased by about 10 percent. The reason for the recent decline in water vapor is unknown. The new study used calculations and models to show that the cooling from this change caused surface temperatures to increase about 25 percent more slowly than they would have otherwise, due only to the increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases."
## [2424] "As the CO 2 content of the air rises, most plants respond by increasing their photosynthetic rates, which results in greater leaf carbohydrate concentrations, including starch. It has been suggested that starch accumulation may signal photosynthetic acclimation in response to growth in elevated CO 2 conditions. However, in the present study, transformed potatoes lacked the ability to accumulate starch, yet they still displayed reduced rates of photosynthesis. This observation suggests that rates of starch synthesis can influence rates of photosynthesis. Thus, as the CO 2 content of the air continues to rise, the enhanced ability of plants to synthesize starch from increased photosynthetic products should allow them to maintain their higher rates of photosynthesis, which ultimately should stimulate their growth and biomass production."
## [2425] "A paper published today in the journal Geophysical Research Letters finds that decrease in sea ice leads to an increase in cloudiness in the Arctic. Clouds increase the reflection of sunlight (albedo) thereby cooling the Earth and acting as a strong negative feedback to global warming. Although diminshed sea ice decreases albedo, the resulting increase in cloudiness may act as a natural homeostatic mechanism to stabilize Arctic temperatures."
## [2426] "That is because proposition 2 is far from settled. The notion that a long-term stable system can be dominated by very high positive feedbacks offends the intuition of many natural scientists, who know that most natural processes (short of nuclear fission) are dominated by negative feedbacks. Sure, there are positive feedbacks in climate, just as there are negative feedbacks. The key is how these net out. The direct evidence that the Earths climate is dominated by strong net positive feedbacks is at best equivocal, and in fact evidence is growing that negative feedbacks may dominate, thus greatly reducing expected future warming from greenhouse gasses."
## [2427] "This is not borne out by the known major aberrant events, however. They show that the Earth system is quite tolerant to large swings in atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. Furthermore, even when perturbed by sizable injections of greenhouse gases, be it CO 2 or the more potent CH 4 , the climate recovers fairly rapidly (at least in geological terms). History also indicates that equatorial temperatures do not rise significantly when the globe warms, rather the majority of the warming is seen at higher latitudes and the poles. This makes senselife has gotten on marvelously with much higher temperatures than today and no ice sheets at the poles."
## [2428] "Idso pointed out that there is a huge body of literature on the biological impacts of rising temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels that the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ignores. He emphatically stated that atmospheric CO2 is not a pollutant. In fact, increased levels of CO2 reduce the negative effects of a number of plant stresses including: high salinity, low light, high and low temperatures, insufficient water, air pollution, and protects against herbivores i.e. being eaten by animals and insects."
## [2429] "The research showing the effects of carbon on marine organisms was published in the journal Geology in 2009. The study, led by Ries and co-authored with Anne L. Cohen and Daniel C. McCorkle, and found that crabs, lobsters and shrimp grew bigger more rapidly as carbon pollution increased. Chesapeake blue crabs grew nearly four times faster in high-carbon tanks than in low-carbon tanks."
## [2430] "According to aerial surveys released by the Government of Nunavat this month, their numbers are at least 66% higher than expected. This region, which straddles Nunavat and Manitoba, is critical because its considered to be a bellwether for how well polar bears are faring elsewhere in the Arctic."
## [2431] "He was asked about survival of corals in the warm Eocene. He said that corals would not go extinct in a warmer world, but suggested that they would survive as individuals and not form attractive reefs."
## [2432] "In Praise of CO2: \"Earth is the Greenest its been in Decades, Perhaps in Centuries' Written by Marc Morano"
## [2433] "In our editorial of 17 August 2011 , we discussed the paper of Pandolfi et al . (2011a) that was published in Science on 22 July 2011, wherein we briefly reported the many ways in which they suggested Earth??s coral reefs might successfully respond to the dual challenge of projected rapid increases in temperature and ocean acidification. As might have been expected, however, their optimistic analysis was not well received by the world??s climate alarmists, who in the 16 December 2011 issue of Science ??? via the persons of Hoegh-Guldberg et al . (2011) ??? cast many aspersions on it. Fortunately, Pandolfi et al . (2011b) were given the opportunity of responding to them and deflating their arguments."
## [2434] "A new review paper from SPPI and CO2 Science finds \" that as the air's CO2 content rises, grassland plants will likely exhibit enhanced rates of photosynthesis and biomass production that will not be diminished by any global warming that might occur concurrently. In fact, if the ambient air temperature does rise, the growth-promoting effects of atmospheric CO2 enrichment will likely rise right along with it, becoming more and more robust in agreement with the experimental observations reviewed by Idso and Idso (1994).\""
## [2435] "Thats why expending at least one-third more energy to capture, compress, transport and inject carbon dioxide rather than simply venting to atmosphere where it is a valuable resource for green plants and hence all aerobic life on earth is not worth it and never can be."
## [2436] "As a result of the changes in the lower troposphere, from calm with no clouds to increasing numbers of circulation cells with cumulus clouds, in the central and western Pacific the temperature actually starts dropping. This is happening despite the continuing increase in the amount of incoming solar energy (negative climate sensitivity, go figure). In the eastern Pacific, the air (and the ocean) is much cooler. As a result the cumulus coverage is less complete and develops more slowly, and the temperature rise is not reversed, but the temperature rise is significantly slowed."
## [2437] "\"Chukchi Sea and Southern Davis Strait bears, for example, are doing very well contrary to all predictions despite marked declines in summer sea ice because they have ample food during their critical spring feeding period when sea ice is abundant.\""
## [2438] "In the words of the seven researchers who conducted the analysis, \"these results suggest that forests may suffer less damage during each ice storm event of similar severity in a future with higher atmospheric CO 2 .\" In addition, they say that \"the lessening of crown breakage by ice storms in a future CO 2 -enriched atmosphere may allow loblolly pine to expand its range northerly.\" Reviewed 13 December 2006"
## [2439] "This is a refinement of the previous possibility. I put this forward because of the obvious daily change in climate sensitivity in the tropics, with the sensitivity dropping as the day progresses and the temperature increases. Sincethat variation in the climate sensitivity occurs daily over about a third of the planet, the part of the planet where the energy enters the system, it is not unreasonable to think that the global climate sensitivity should be a function of temperature. (Note that even here the sensitivity is unlikely to be a linear function of temperature, as the natural situation contains clear thresholds at which the climate sensitivity changes rapidly.)"
## [2440] "\" Eme et al. conclude , in their words, that \"terapon and mullet demonstrate exceptional tolerance to high temperatures,\" and they say \"it seems likely that shallow-water sea surface temperatures would have to be much higher to adversely affect these and other shallow water marine fishes...they write that \"despite diverse independent origins across taxa, fishes may share a common suite of physiological adaptations allowing them to survive periodic exposure to high environmental temperature ...\"and that \"exceptional thermal tolerance may be common throughout the biodiverse shallow waters of the Indo-Pacific.\" Thus, in the final analysis, they conclude that \"tropical marine fishes inhabiting fringing nursery environments may have the upper thermal tolerance necessary to endure substantial increases in sea temperatures.\""
## [2441] "Social Benefits of Carbon: We are receiving more reports that enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide is promoting greening of deserts, tree growth using less water, and flowering in the Tropics. The report on flowering in the Tropics suggests the cause is a slight increase in warming of the Tropics. But as reported by Roy Spencer and John Christy, the atmospheric warming over the Tropics is not statistically significant, and, based on experiments, it is more plausible to attribute the increased flowering to enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide. Please see links under Social Benefits of Carbon."
## [2442] "Another absurdity which is pushed with the vehemence of an absolute is that if the oceans get more acidic than pH 8.1 ocean life will be destroyed, because calcium carbon precipitates above that pH and dissolves below it. There is no precipitation reaction anywhere in biology. All biological effects are under control, usually with enzymes which do not produce precipitation. The reason why the oceans are pH 8.1 (Scientists have never found any other pH in the oceans outside sheltered estuaries or related effluent.) is because calcium carbonate acts as a buffer holding the oceans at that pH. Fake scientists have been projecting future pH of the oceans to be more acidic and then proclaiming the guess to be a fact of science. They also estimate the past pH of the oceans to have been more alkaline than now, even though no measurements were made at that time, and then they proclaim the contrivance to be a fact of science."
## [2443] "Beaufort Sea polynyas open two weeks before 1975 open water is good news for polar bears"
## [2444] "Urabe and Waki say their results imply that \"algal diets composed of multiple species can mitigate the adverse effects of elevated CO 2 on herbivore performance,\" and that \"in environments with high CO 2 , herbivores may find a new diet producer or a combination of producer species to best meet their nutritional demands.\" Interestingly, the advice that nutritionists often give to people -- to eat a wide variety of foods -- would appear to apply to aquatic herbivores as well (and maybe even terrestrial herbivores), especially in a high-CO 2 world of the future. And maybe we should retain that wisdom too, for variety , it would seem, may be more than just the spice of life. Reviewed 6 May 2009"
## [2445] "Significantly, that warming occurred during the period when climate modelers developed their models, and since they assumed all warming was manmade, they had to increase the models sensitivity. Now, they are between a rock and a hard place, continuing to publish overly-sensitivity models they know are wrong (based upon both surface AND deep ocean warming rates)."
## [2446] "One year ago, Roy Spencer released his new book, The Great Global Warming Blunder, in which he argued that the influence of the natural cloud cover variations on the temperature has been misinterpreted as the opposite influence and, therefore, a positive feedback. That has greatly and spuriously inflated the predicted sensitivity of the climate to carbon dioxide and similar drivers."
## [2447] "Elevated CO 2 preferentially stimulated belowground growth in seedlings growing in nitrogen-poor soil, which increased their root to shoot ratios. However, elevated CO 2 increased both the above- and below-ground biomass of seedlings growing in nitrogen-rich soil. In fact, the CO 2 -enriched seedlings in the nitrogen-rich soil produced 217 and 533% more stem and coarse-root biomass, respectively, than their ambiently-grown counterparts subjected to high concentrations of soil nitrogen. Overall, elevated CO 2 enhanced total seedling biomass by approximately 140 and 30% under nitrogen-rich and nitrogen-poor soil conditions, respectively."
## [2448] "Just to be clear, my statement that polar bears can survive climate change but for mans greed, does not translate to not threatened by climate change. Certainly, if not for the decline in sea ice, polar bears would have a better future. The contraction of polar bear populations will indeed follow the loss of sea ice habitat. The survival of a great many bears will be threatened. This threat is a clear and present danger directly attributable to climate induced sea ice reduction."
## [2449] "This long-term study of oak trees growing in a natural setting provides strong parallel evidence for the reality of the large CO 2 -induced growth stimulation that has long been evident in the sour orange tree study of Idso and Kimball (2001) . It also provides strong evidence for the observation of Curtis et al. (2003) that the meta-analysis of Jablonski et al. (2002) suggests that drought does not diminish the positive effects of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment on plant growth and development. Indeed, it indicates that it actually tends to enhance this stimulatory phenomenon, as was earlier demonstrated by the meta-analysis of Idso and Idso (1994). References"
## [2450] "Elser writes, for example, that \"Hietz et al . (2011) gathered data in tropical rainforests of Panama and Thailand,\" and he says the results indicate that \"increasing levels of nitrogen deposition in the tropics have alleviated forest nitrogen limitation.\" And as a result, this phenomenon has allowed the aerial fertilization effect of the ongoing rise in the air's CO 2 content to significantly stimulate tropical forest growth nearly everywhere on earth, as has been demonstrated by the host of studies we have reviewed on our website and archived under the general heading of Forests (Tropical) in our Subject Index."
## [2451] "Simply put, white corals were physiologically healthy when compared to dark and light-brown colonies, which would lead to the \"potential overestimation of coral bleaching\" by nearly twice as much . One reason for this overestimation is that traditional coral monitoring is unable to detect between white and bleached (dead) colonies. Video transects from reef monitoring surveys off the coast of Brazil showed that the \"proportion of bleached and white colonies is similar, thus suggesting that current coral reef surveys may be overestimating the bleaching of M. cavernosa by nearly twofold.\""
## [2452] "(1) Barbale (1970) and Madsen (1971, 1975) found that a tripling of the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration produced modest increases in the vitamin C concentration of tomato fruit, while Kimball and Mitchell (1981) found that atmospheric CO 2 enrichment enhanced the vitamin A content of tomatoes,"
## [2453] "Do freshwater species fare as well as marine species? Based on the results of this study it would appear the answer is yes, as continued increases in the airs CO2 content should significantly enhance the wellbeing of various species of phytoplankton... Read More"
## [2454] "In the concluding words Bignami et al ., \"this study demonstrates that cobia is unlikely to experience a strong negative impact from CO 2 -induced acidification predicted to occur within the next several centuries,\" which consequence they speculate \"may be due to the naturally variable environmental conditions this species currently encounters throughout ontogeny in coastal environments,\" which they further suggest \"may lead to an increased acclimatization ability even during long-term exposure to stressors.\""
## [2455] "Could a warming of the ocean lead to the destruction of our world??s coral reefs? Well such is the assertion of global warming advocates, but according to the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide, such contentions regarding coral are pitted with many small holes. Among them is a recent study in India, where researchers examined coral reefs experiencing a significant warming trend. While they observed a nearly 50 percent bleaching of the reefs initially, within a couple years the corals began to quickly recover ??? and today the successive incarnations of coral reefs are even more resistant to warming induced bleaching. Little wonder the Indian scientists concluded, quote, ???any disturbance is only temporary?? and ???the coral will resurge under the sea.??"
## [2456] "What does that mean? Well, they (Paltridge, Arking and Pook) pulled out old weather balloon observations and had another look at them. They discovered that over 35 years, instead of rising, the humidity in the high atmosphere has been falling. We should not underestimate the significance of this discovery because, if true, it destroys the possibility of catastrophic man-made global warming. Really, its that important!"
## [2457] "In the concluding paragraph of their paper, Li et al . write that the dwarf bamboo plants could adjust their \"physiology and morphology to enable the capture of more light, to increase water use efficiency and improve nutritional conditions.\" However, they also indicate that elevated temperature had just the opposite effects on water use efficiency and nutritional traits of leaves. But in the end , they report that \"the combination of elevated CO 2 and elevated temperature showed no significant interaction effect on the nutritional traits of leaves.\" And, therefore, their ultimate conclusion was that if and when \"the dwarf bamboo confronts warmer climate for a long term, elevated CO 2 will be beneficial,\" as it will lead to the production of more equally-nutritious dwarf bamboo tissue."
## [2458] "For this particular plant, as well as many other species that have been similarly tested (see Growth Response to Very High CO 2 Concentrations in our Subject Index), several-fold increases in the air's CO 2 concentration pose no problem at all to their growth and development. In fact, the more CO 2 there is in the air, the more biomass the tested plants have typically produced. Reviewed 28 June 2006"
## [2459] "So we have a model that is not very sensitive to carbon dioxide, and which appears to reproduce past temperature history. But if Stevens' aerosol estimate is correct, then it's still too sensitive."
## [2460] "In the words of Craine et al ., \"our findings suggest that diverse grasslands throughout the globe have the potential to be resilient to drought in the face of climate change through the local expansion of drought-tolerant species,\" citing as an example of this phenomenon the fact that \"plant productivity in Kansas and Nebraska grasslands was maintained during drought in the 1930s not by the immigration of drought-tolerant species, but by local expansion of those species after less-tolerant species perished,\" citing Weaver et al . (1935) and Weaver (1968)."
## [2461] "Reich reports that at the ambient soil N concentration elevated CO 2 had minimal impact on observed species richness (-2%), while at the ambient atmospheric CO 2 concentration elevated N decreased species richness by fully 15% over the last seven years of the ten-year-long study. When the elevated soil N concentration was combined with the elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration, however, species richness declined by only 5%, leading Reich to conclude that \"elevated CO 2 reduces losses of plant diversity caused by nitrogen deposition,\" which finding was so important that he made it the title of his paper . What it means"
## [2462] "A paper in press for the journal Tellus finds the \"best estimate\" of climate sensitivity to CO2 is about 33% less than estimated by the IPCC. According to the authors, the best estimate of transient climatesensitivityis 1.5C for a doubling of CO2 levels, and equilibrium climate sensitivity about 2C. The paper finds a lower bound on equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.16C per doubling of CO2. The paper a dds to many recent peer-reviewed papers finding climate sensitivity to CO2 is significantly less than claimed by the IPCC ."
## [2463] "You can see in the JAXA graph above that the 2007 divergence occurred in late July after Arctic insolation was already shutting down, essentially nullifying the Arctic albedo feedback argument. The Arctic minimum comes too late in the summer to have a significant impact on the radiation budget, due to the very low angle sun at that time. In fact, CERES has measured that during September 2008, the Arctic net radiation balance was strongly negative. The open water loses heat to the atmosphere (because it is not insulated by ice) meaning that declining ice cover is probably a negative feedback, not a positive one. NASA??s Earth Observatory explains :"
## [2464] "Newborn reef fish can cope with changed water conditions if their parents have already adjusted"
## [2465] "Currently, the Konsensus has introduced a new line of argument into the climate debate. They have de-emphasized the focus on sensitivity of the atmosphere to a doubling of CO2 concentrations, probably because all the new studies show that sensitivity is far lower than the Konsensus has claimed. Now they are just saying we must leave fossil fuels in the ground. Its about as content heavy as Nancy Reagans Just Say No."
## [2466] "Of 191 bird and mammal species recorded as having gone extinct since 1500, 95% were on islands, where humans and human-introduced predators and diseases wrought the destruction, notes ecology researcher Dr. Craig Loehle. On continents, only six birds and three mammals were driven to extinction, and no bird or mammal species in recorded history is known to have gone extinct due to climate change."
## [2467] "Carbon dioxide is a plant fertilizerthe more of it there is in the atmosphere, the better plants grow. Aspects of climate can act in a similar way. More sunshine in cloudy areas, more rainfall in dry areas, and higher temperatures in cold areas can all act to boost plant growth. And it is precisely these types of climate changes that have taken place over the past 20-30 years. And as a result, the worlds plants have responded positively. Figure 1 shows the trends in net primary productivity (NPP)the ultimate measure of how much plant growth is taking place. Upward trends in NPP (green areas in Figure 1) mean that plants are growing better. This is occurring across most land areas across the globe."
## [2468] "The authors state that \"forest production is strongly nutrient limited throughout the southeastern US,\" and that there is a \"clear limitation\" of net primary production at their site. Nevertheless, they report \"there were significant increases in canopy N and P contents under elevated CO 2 \" (26 and 50%, respectively), and that \"canopy biomass was significantly higher under elevated CO 2 during the first 4 years of this experiment.\" What it means"
## [2469] "Allowing for this exaggeration knocks back this centurys anthropogenic warming to not much more than 1 K about a third of the 3-4 K that we normally hear so much about."
## [2470] "In a 1983 study into vegetal species by Kimbal (1983) published in Carbon Dioxide Fertilizing Effects on Plant Biomass production and Water-Use Efficiency showed that, A doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased biomass production by an average of 33% in the vegetal species."
## [2471] "Throughout the four-year study, seedlings grown in elevated CO 2 displayed photosynthetic rates that were 60-130% greater than rates exhibited by seedlings grown in ambient air during the warmer summer months. During the colder winter months, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment continued to boost seedling photosynthetic rates by 14 to 44%. These persistent increases in net carbon uptake led to a mean biomass accumulation in the CO 2 enriched seedlings that was 90% greater than that attained by the ambiently-grown controls after four years of treatment exposure. What it means"
## [2472] "The seven scientists report that the elevated CO 2 treatment increased the above- and below-ground biomass of Zhonghuang 13 by 18.3 and 11.1%, respectively, while it increased the above- and below-ground biomass of Zhonghuang 35 by 15.6 and 20.0%, respectively. They additionally note that the high-CO 2 treatment also boosted the percentage of N derived from the atmosphere (%Ndfa) for Zhonghuang 13 from 59% to 79%, corresponding to an amount of N fixed ranging from 166 to 275 kg N ha -1 ; but they say that the elevated CO 2 treatment \"had no significant effect on either parameter for Zhonghuang 35.\" What it means"
## [2473] "The most important recent scientific work concerns the Global Climate Models (GCM). Carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas in that it absorbs outgoing radiation on particular wavelengths, with a resultant warming effect. However, looking at carbon dioxide alone, any effect would be quite small. To get to the predictions of doom, and thus to justify the destruction of industrial civilization, one must build computer GCMs based on the assumption that a small initial effect of carbon dioxide is amplified by positive feedback mechanisms. A score of such models exist, all of which assume that feedback is positive, and that in consequence a small amount of carbon dioxideinduced warming will indeed trigger an upward cascade in temperature. No empirical support for this assumption exists, and if it is erroneous and thus there is no positive feedback, then the effects of carbon dioxide become negligible."
## [2474] "Bauman et al. published a peer-reviewed study regarding corals in the southern Persian Gulf area, which found corals to be hardy and resilient to extreme temperature fluctuations. Their research confirms what other coral studies have found:"
## [2475] "The five researchers report that changes associated with both management, its absence, and the 1998 ENSO were found, but they say that the changes were generally small and that ecological measures indicated stability or improvements over the period of their study. In fact, they state that northern Tanzania reefs have exhibited considerable resilience and in some cases improvements in reef conditions in the face of dire global predictions for overfishing, climate change, and their interaction."
## [2476] "Abundant CO2 also increases the biomass, numbers and total surface area of lateral roots and fine-roots, enabling plants to absorb more water and soil nutrients, and obtain sufficient phosphorus even when it is in short supply in soils. Carbon dioxide also stimulates nitrogen fixation, helping plants to form stronger symbiotic relationships with nitrogen-fixing soil bacteria, further increasing photosynthetic rates."
## [2477] "It is not in our national self-interest to try and bear the costs of global warming by ourselves. For a wealthy, cold, non-agrarian, stable country such as ours, it is unclear whether we even stand that much to lose from a rise in temperatures. There have been several studies that suggest the costs of mitigating climate change exceed the benefits in a country such as the United States ? work by William Nordhaus and Robert Mendelsohn of Yale, Richard Tol of Carnegie Mellon, Melissa Dell and Benjamin Olken of MIT, and others, suggest this outcome is likely."
## [2478] "The models all reckon the feedbacks amplify the warming, but three independent sources of empirical evidence suggests the opposite occurs, and that the feedbacks are negative (ie. they dampen). In that case the headline threat reads Half a Degree ."
## [2479] "any extra CO2 is already increasing the fertility and reducing water needs of all plant life and thus enhancing world food production."
## [2480] "Polar bear habitat more Arctic sea ice in Canada this week than in early 1970s"
## [2481] "As the amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere continues to rise, soybean plants will likely exhibit enhanced rates of photosynthesis, which will lead to greater synthesis of starch and other carbohydrates for supporting increased growth and development. In addition, if the atmospheric ozone level continues to rise, the rising CO 2 content of the air will likely protect soybeans and other crops from the adverse effects of ozone that reduce productivity, growth, and yield."
## [2482] "They find that when their proposed natural radiative warming effect of El Nino is included, the climate sensitivity to CO2 is reduced substantially to 1.3 deg. C. This is below the IPCC estimate of 1.5 deg. C to 4.5 deg. C."
## [2483] "E. Corals in warm, tropical seas around the world are thriving as the ocean waters around them get warmer."
## [2484] "Another negative climate feedback: more CO2 = more plants = more aerosols = cooling"
## [2485] "Empirical evidence shows that Earth is currently ???greening?? significantly due to additional CO2 and a modest warming."
## [2486] "They found a pH range from ~8.0 to ~7.6 standard units and -aragonite ranges from ~3.7 to ~1.9. They found some species variations that couldnt really be assigned to pH differences and were similar to other reefs. In general, they found a healthy, thriving coral system. The negative seems to be increased macrobioerosion with decreasing pH."
## [2487] "Hereward Corley pointed out that the reference to Shaviv (2008) should have been Shaviv (2005). Nir Shaviv another genius of a mathematician had originally sent me the paper saying it was from 2008, but the version he sent was an undated pre-publication copy. Mr. Corley also kindly supplied half a dozen further papers that determine climate sensitivity empirically. Most of the papers find it low, and all find it below the IPCCs estimates. The papers are Chylek & Lohman (2008); Douglass & Knox (2005); Gregory et al. (2002); Hoffert & Covey (1992); Idso (1998); and Loehle & Scafetta (2011)."
## [2488] "Imagine if the increase of 1 degree was real, I would say, good for usgood for the health of the planet, and the increase in carbon dioxide is improving the planet, greening what were previously not productive areas."
## [2489] "This is an encouraging start and its inclusion would improve models significantly. Clearly it would reduce very substantially thecurrently IPCC calculated temperature sensitivity to CO2 . He now also needs to add into the models the iris effect of the GCR modulation of the global incoming radiation flux via clouds ,possibly related natural aerosols, and resulting albedo changes on global temperatures.When this is done the sensitivity to doubling CO2 will be 1 degree or less similar to separate calculations by Lindzen, Spencer and Bjornbom:"
## [2490] "The seven scientists determined that \"the positive effect of elevated CO 2 on gross N 2 fixation was large (~50% increase) under mid and/or low irradiances compared with that at high light (~20% increase),\" noting that data from Kranz et al . (2010) and Levitan et al . (2010) corroborate their findings. In fact, they report that in the Kranz et al . study, \"under low light, gross N 2 -fixation rates were 200% higher in a high-CO 2 treatment (900 ppm) compared with a low-CO 2 treatment (150 ppm), whereas under high light, gross N 2 -fixation rates were only 112% higher under elevated CO 2 .\" In the case of CO 2 fixation, on the other hand, they found that CO 2 -fixation rates increased significantly \"in response to high CO 2 under mid- and high irradiances only.\""
## [2491] "As the CO 2 content of the air continues to increase, loblolly pine trees will likely display significant increases in their photosynthetic rates. Enhanced carbohydrate supplies, resulting from this phenomenon, will likely be used to increase seed weight and lipid content. Such seeds should consequently exhibit significant increases in germination success, and their enhanced lipid content will likely lead to greater root lengths and needle numbers in developing seedlings. Thus, when these seedlings become photosynthetically-active, they will likely photosynthesize and produce biomass at greater rates than those currently exhibited by seedlings growing under ambient CO 2 concentrations."
## [2492] "Susan Crockford shows that virtually all of the research reports on polar bears over the last few years have contained good news.Who then is to blame for hyping the polar bears are dying meme? Full paper"
## [2493] "Of course carbon pollution sounds pretty scary, doesnt it, even though carbon dioxide is not toxic? Carbon dioxide only has a negative effect if it crowds out oxygen and causes in increase in carbon dioxide that cause respiratory acidosis. Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant and it is not toxic except as an asphyxiant."
## [2494] "McCulloch et al . make a good case for their conclusion that their IpHRAC model indicates that \"ocean acidification combined with rising ocean temperatures should have only minimal effects on coral calcification,\" which they say is \"a direct outcome of their ability to up-regulate pH at the site of calcification.\" In fact, they say that the enhanced kinetics from increasing sea surface temperatures more than compensates for reduced calcification from declining seawater saturation state, \"consistent with recent findings for long-lived Porites corals from Western Australia,\" citing Cooper et al . (2012). References"
## [2495] "HAVE you ever wondered what happens when corals grow so tall they are above sea level or whether the Great Barrier Reef could extend its range further south with global warming?"
## [2496] "8. The sea ice cover for which the bears are uniquely evolved has been shrinking under climate change, forcing the bears off of the ice for longer periods and away from their main food source: seals. Only the summer ice extent is shrinking markedly. Ice in the spring has changed very little over the last 30 years, as has early summer ice . Spring and early summer ice is the most important for feeding on young seals, which there are more of because of longer ice-free periods. Ringed seals in the Chukchi are doing better than they were in the 1980s, meaning there are more seals for polar bears to eat."
## [2497] "The results show that increased carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels causes an inconsequential impact on world temperature. The most significant conclusion, however, is that increased moisture, the presumed cause of feedback, causes a decrease in the warming effect of CO2 (negative feedback)."
## [2498] "Although there was essentially no acclimation or down regulation of photosynthesis in this long-term study, no significant increase in soil carbon content was detected over the experiment's duration.?? However, as demonstrated in our Editorial of 5 Mar 2003 , it is sometimes necessary to conduct studies of biological responses to atmospheric CO 2 enrichment for considerably longer than a decade in order to determine their true ultimate impact.?? Indeed, the study of Schneider et al . (2004) on the identical L. perenne plots studied here suggests the very same thing with respect to the slowly increasing (though non-significant) trend in harvestable biomass observed in the low soil nitrogen treatment. References"
## [2499] "Interestingly, neither seawater warming nor seawater acidification (caused by contact with CO 2 -enriched air) had either a positive or a negative effect of sea urchin fertilization, suggesting, as the five scientists concluded, that \"sea urchin fertilization is robust to climate change stressors.\" References"
## [2500] "In contrast, climate models all show RH staying constant, implying that specific humidity is forecast to increase with warming. So climate models show positive feedback and rising specific humidity with warming in the upper troposphere, but the data shows falling specific humidity and negative feedback."
## [2501] "One of the most publicized faces of the alleged global warming crisis is that of the polar bear, which some say is going extinct because a loss of habitat. But according to a new report by the National Center for Policy Analysis, coastal stations in Greenland actually show a cooling trend, Russian stations also show none of the predicted warming, and temperatures at the summit of the Greenland Ice Sheet have decreased 4 degrees Fahrenheit per decade since measurements began in 1987. When you also consider that of the 20 known polar bear populations, only two are decreasing, while 10 are stable, and two are actually increasing, it appears polar bears may not be on such thin ice, after all."
## [2502] "The five Australian researchers report that \"for 6 years, recruitment rates were <6% of those prior to the disturbance,\" and \"on the basis of these rates of change,\" they say that \"recovery was projected to take decades.\" However, within a mere 12 years , they indicate that \"coral cover, recruitment, generic diversity, and community structure were again similar to the pre-bleaching years.\" And they say that the coral recovery \"may have been even faster if not for a series of more moderate disturbances, including two cyclones, an outbreak of disease, and a second bleaching.\" What it means"
## [2503] "As to the Arctic here on Earth: there are more polar bears and walrus now than recorded ever before and they dont look to be starving."
## [2504] "A new paper finds computer models of extinction risk failed to consider that tropical species can adapt to climate change and that the models have therefore exaggerated extinction risks. Alarmists, such as James Hansen, have claimed that 21-52% of species could become extinct due to global warming , but this new paper suggests computer models have exaggerated risks of extinction by not considering species adaptation."
## [2505] "I have a very high regard for the hardiness of corals. The GBR was borne at a time of rapidly rising sealevel, very high turbidity and very rapidly rising temperature. Presently, they live in areas of extreme temperature (40 degree), in muddy embayments and in regions continuously affected by runoff. Provided they are not grossly overfished, as has happened in the Caribbean, they are very adaptable systems."
## [2506] "The findings described by the three researchers represent good news for the biosphere , since \"marine phytoplankton contribute to about half of the global primary productivity,\" and this phenomenon, in their words, \"promotes the absorption of CO 2 from the atmosphere.\" Consequently, both the micro- and macro-algae of the world's oceans should be able to do an even better job of performing these vital functions in the brave new (and CO 2 -enriched) world of the future. Reviewed 1 July 2009"
## [2507] "As the atmospheric CO 2 concentration rises, it is likely that this Mediterranean forest species will exhibit significant gains in photosynthesis and growth. Moreover, this tree species should display significant improvements in its water-use efficiency, allowing it to better cope with periods of water stress, which commonly occur in its natural habitat. It is likely that these enhancements in photosynthesis and growth will lead to greater carbon sequestration by this species, which should help reduce the rate of rise of atmospheric CO 2 ."
## [2508] "Lukewarmers have found the world to be a lonely place. But favor (think physical processes of global climate) smiled for us in 2011. Several scientific studies produced results, when considered in combination, provide evidence that the general warming of the earth?s climate is proceeding at a rate that lies in the lower half of the IPCC?s projected temperature change during the 21st century."
## [2509] "Coral atolls have proven over thousands of years that, if left alone, they can go up and down with any sea level rise. And if we follow some simple conservation practices, they can continue to do so and to support atoll residents. But they cannot survive an unlimited population increase, or unrestricted fishing, or overpumping the water lens, or unrestrained coral mining."
## [2510] "Amstrup diligently followed up his earlier study on the apparent survival of South Beaufort Bears using radio-collared bears over a 12-year period. It turned out that his high-end apparent survival estimate of 94% was still too low. If only natural deaths were used, polar bears had a 99.6 % biological survival rate. 4 Most bears died at the hands of hunters. If death at the hands of hunters was also considered, then biological survival was still higher than apparent survival, but fell to 96.9%. In 2001 Amstrup concluded that the South Beaufort Sea population was increasing and the current hunting quotas insured a growing population."
## [2511] "But when one looks at the details objectively, it is not so obvious that water vapor feedback in the context of long-term climate change is positive. Remember, its not the difference between warmer tropical air masses and cooler high-latitude air masses that will determine water vapor feedback?? its how those air masses will each change over time in response to more carbon dioxide. Anything that alters precipitation processes during that process can cause either positive or negative water vapor feedback."
## [2512] "A whopping 45 studies have examined the effects of CO2 enrichment on the garden tomato (lycopersicon eculentum). On average, garden tomatoes gain 32."
## [2513] "As forests regenerate in future atmospheres of greater CO 2 concentration, the increases in root growth and mycorrhizal root colonization that result from elevated CO 2 will likely enable seedlings and juvenile trees to acquire greater amounts of soil nutrients more effectively than they presently do. This enhanced acquisition of nutrients should allow regenerating forest trees to support the increased tree biomass that typically results from atmospheric CO 2 enrichment."
## [2514] "This may allow corals and their symbiotic algae a better chance to adapt and survive.??"
## [2515] "The second implication is an odd one, and quite important. Consider the fact that their temperature change hindcast (in degrees) is simply 0.3 times the forcing change (in watts per meter squared). But that is also a statement of the climate sensitivity, 0.3 degrees per W/m2. Converting this to degrees of warming for a doubling of CO2 gives us (0.3C per W/m2) times (3.7 W/m2 per doubling of CO2), which yields a climate sensitivity of 1.1C for a doubling of CO2 . This is far below the canonical value given by the GISSE modelers, which is about 0.8C per W/m2 or about 3C per doubling."
## [2516] "As the atmospheric CO 2 concentration continues to rise, it is likely that sorghum will require less water than it currently uses to produce equivalent, or even greater, grain yields. In addition, with lower total water requirements for this crop, its production in areas that are subjected to drought and low levels of soil moisture is likely to increase."
## [2517] "The authors report that experiments have shown that atmospheric CO 2 enrichment positively influences several external quality characteristics of chrysanthemums. Specifically, it increases stem length, number of lateral branches, number of flowers and size of flowers. What it means"
## [2518] "Schlegel et al . opine that their results suggest that (1) \"some individuals will exhibit enhanced fertilization success in acidified oceans, supporting the concept of 'winners' and 'losers' of climate change at an individual level.\" And they say that if these differences are heritable, it is likely that (2) \"ocean acidification will lead to selection against susceptible phenotypes as well as to rapid fixation of alleles that allow reproduction under more acidic conditions,\" which phenomena \"may ameliorate the biotic effects of climate change if taxa have sufficient extant genetic variation upon which selection can act.\""
## [2519] "So what I have documented is a collection of observations and analyses that together is telling a story of relatively modest climate changes to come. Not that temperatures won?t rise at all over the course of this century, but rather than our climate becoming extremely toasty, it looks like we?ll have to settle (thankfully) for it becoming only lukewarm."
## [2520] "Climate sensitivity is large in the vicinity of tipping points but moderate otherwise. A variable sensitivity as must be the case in such a finely balanced system as the Earths climate. While this is necessarily a simplified approach to a new mathematics of climate sensitivity it is nonetheless a vastly more sophisticated concept and overwhelmingly likely to be truer than back of the envelope constant high or low sensitivity calculations."
## [2521] "As best we can determine from the Chinese scientists' graph, over the period of time depicted - when climate alarmists claim the world warmed at a rate that was unprecedented over the past millennium or two, and when the atmosphere's CO 2 concentration rose to values not seen for millions of years - the two \"fatal threats to coral reefs,\" even acting together , could not prevent coral calcification rates on Meiji Reef from actually rising by about 11% over the past three centuries."
## [2522] "The Nordic scientists say \"the increase in SOC with temperature and precipitation is interpreted as an indirect effect of higher net primary production.\"?? More specifically, they say that, in Europe, \"increasing site productivity has been reported in both nemoral forests and in boreal forests at higher latitudes (Eriksson and Karlsson, 1996; Skovsgaard and Henriksen, 1996; Cannell et al ., 1998),\" and that this increase \"could be attributed to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentrations along with the fertilizer effect of nitrogen deposition, and management regimes optimizing forest production.\" In light of these broad-based findings, it can be appreciated that just the opposite of what Bellamy et al . claim to be occurring in the top 15 cm of soils in England and Wales is happening in the top 100 cm of soils throughout much of the rest of Europe, producing a negative feedback to both rising air temperatures and CO 2 concentrations. Reference"
## [2523] "Analysis of 20 years of satellite data has revealed the total amount of vegetation globally has increased by almost the equivalent of 4 billion tonnes of carbon since 2003. This is despite ongoing large-scale deforestation in the tropics. , we found unexpectedly large vegetation increases in the savannahs of southern Africa and northern Australia. The increase in Australia occurred despite ongoing land clearing, urbanisation, and big droughts across other parts of Australia. The main cause of this strong growth over the savannahs came from higher rainfall, particularly in recent years, although higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere may have helped plants there to grow more vigorously. ( Link )"
## [2524] "As the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere continues to increase, rice plants will likely display higher rates of photosynthesis, regardless of nitrogen availability. This phenomenon should enhance carbohydrate production in rice and allow plants to attain greater size, weight, and yield. And the greater the availability of nitrogen in the soil, the greater the anticipated growth increase."
## [2525] "Lost in the debate is the fact that polar bear numbers have dramatically increased over the past forty years a fact even liberal environmental activists are forced to concede. According to Canadian scientists, 11 of the 13 bear populations are stable, with some increasing. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service now estimates that there are currently 20,000 to 25,000 polar bears. These numbers are substantially up from lows estimates in the range of 5,000-10,000 in the 1950s and 1960s. Credit should be given to protection already provided the polar bear by way of the Marine Mammal Protection Act, the several international conservation treaties including the 1973 Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears and the U.S.-Russia Polar Bear Conservation and Management Act of 2006, as well as conservation, education, and outreach agreement with native peoples."
## [2526] "Puls: That is one of the worst myths used for generating climate hysteria. Polar bears dont eat ice, they eat seals. Polar bears go hungry if we shoot their food supply of seals. The polar bear population has increased with moderately rising temperatures, from 5000 50 years ago to 25,000 today ."
## [2527] "After one year of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment, the growth rate of dominant canopy pine trees was about 24% greater than that of trees grown in ambient CO 2 , in spite of the likelihood of soil nutrient limitations and a severe summer drought (rainfall in August 1997 was about 90% below the 50-year average). In addition, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment increased the biomass of canopy pines by about 14%. However, elevated CO 2 had no significant impact on the growth rate or biomass of the four most abundant understorey species (loblolly pine, sweetgum, winged elm and red maple) located within the study plots. What it means"
## [2528] "As I said to Andy Revkin (and he published on his blog), the additional decade of temperature data from 2000 onwards (even the AR4 estimates typically ignored the post-2000 years) can only work to reduce estimates of sensitivity, and that??s before we even consider the reduction in estimates of negative aerosol forcing, and additional forcing from black carbon (the latter being very new, is not included in any calculations AIUI). It??s increasingly difficult to reconcile a high climate sensitivity (say over 4C) with the observational evidence for the planetary energy balance over the industrial era."
## [2529] "The authors note that \"the longevity and persistence of clonal plant populations are believed to enhance community stability and ecosystem resilience to climate change,\" citing Steinger et al . (1996), Grabherr and Nagy (2003), and Guisan and Thuiller (2005), while adding that \"stability and resilience are thought to be high in arctic and alpine ecosystems, where more than 50% of the plant species are able to reproduce clonally (Korner, 2003).\" Thus, \"to better understand their ecology, as well as their persistence through past climatic oscillations and their potential resistance to future climate change,\" de Witte et al . say they \"chose to investigate diversity, structure and age in arctic-alpine clonal plant populations.\""
## [2530] "On that occasion it took 10,000 years for the temperature to rise by 6C. There were mass extinctions, but the timescale gave some plants and animals time to adapt and move north and south to survive. Many species evolved quickly dwarfism being one of the most widespread and successful strategies."
## [2531] "When people say the science is settled, they generally mean greenhouse gas theory. But that means only the nudge is settled. What is far from settled is the second theory of strong net positive feedback in the climate, ie the theory the climate is perched on top of a hill. It is unusual for long-term stable but chaotic systems to be dominated by such strong positive feedbacks. In fact, only the most severe contortions allow scientists to claim their high-sensitivity models of catastrophic warming are consistent with the relatively modest warming of the past century."
## [2532] "The normalization of TA and DIC to a constant salinity subdues the buffering provided by salinity; while amplifying the acidification effect of increasing CO2. A realistic treatment of salinity, yields an insignificant lowering of pH from a doubling of pre-industrial CO2. Chicken Little of the Sea does not appear to be very dangerous."
## [2533] "Following massive aboveground destruction caused by both fires and hurricanes , atmospheric CO 2 enrichment is able to bring scrub-oak ecosystems back from the brink of death , so to speak, to once again flourish, as the life-giving gas stimulates root production and the acquisition of needed-but-scarce soil nutrients?? Read"
## [2534] "Introducing their intriguing study, Reef and Lovelock (2014) write that specific leaf area or SLA - which is the ratio of leaf area to weight - is \"a key indicator of CO 2 -induced changes in photosynthetic activity and growth,\" citing Cornelissen et al . (1999), Medlyn et al . (1999), Yin (2002) and Poorter and Navas (2003), due to the fact that \"species that respond more strongly to elevated CO 2 (e.g. grow more rapidly or assimilate more carbon) also show steeper declines in SLA as CO 2 increases,\" citing Cornelissen et al . (1999). And they also note, in this regard, that \"tree species with initially higher SLA values respond more strongly, in terms of photosynthesis and/or growth to elevated CO 2 than tree species with initially lower SLA,\" once again citing the study of Cornelissen et al . (1999) as well as the newer work of Ali et al . (2013)."
## [2535] "230 million years ago, when the land was dominated by dinosaurs, the oceans were controlled by coccolithophores , one-celled marine plants (a kind of phytoplankton). Tomorrow, a peer-reviewed paper in Science M. Debora Iglesias-Rodriguez, Paul R. Halloran & their 11 disciples: Phytoplankton Calcification in a High-CO2 World will argue that according to lab tests as well as direct observations of the sea bed, coccolithophores thrive. Over the past 220 years, their volume has increased by 40% or so. They are a cornerstone of the ecosystem. For example, they help to remove carbon and lock it in rocks as they die and sink."
## [2536] "The effect is harmless (to the contrary, CO2-increases and slight global warming are beneficial for man and thus desirable) and show that the overly alarmist prognoses for future climate developments as fully inappropriate."
## [2537] "At present, the polar bear is one of the best managed of the large arctic mammals. If all the arctic nations continue to abide by the terms and intent of the Polar Bear Agreement, the future of polar bears is secure."
## [2538] "Then Gore trotted out one of his favorite phrases, ???Global Warming Pollution??. This is his phrase for the naturally-occurring trace gas CO2, that is essential to all life on Earth. For good measure, he said that Methane might double the warming effect of CO2. No, Al, baby, it would make hardly any difference at all: there??s too little of it about, and it doesn??t survive very long in the atmosphere."
## [2539] "In the concluding paragraph of their report, Kathilankal et al . declare that \"in a scenario of atmospheric warming and increased atmospheric CO 2 levels, S. alterniflora will likely respond positively to both changes,\" and they suggest that these responses \"will result in increased S. alterniflora productivity,\" which, we would add, should be good news for western Atlantic intertidal marshes and the many beneficial services that smooth cordgrass provides to those ecosystems."
## [2540] "Elevated CO 2 enhanced annual average rates of net photosynthesis by 39% and increased stem diameters by 14% and 3% at low and high ozone concentrations, respectively. In addition, elevated CO 2 increased bud lengths at the end of the second growing season by 17%. This phenomenon led to a transitory stimulation of elongation and growth of terminal buds the following spring (+38%), but only in CO 2 -enriched units receiving low ozone concentrations. What it means"
## [2541] "With Moazami-Goudarzi and Colman determining that S. minor and S. cylindricus ???were able to tolerate a broad range of pH from pH 5.0 to 9.5,?? as well as the broad range of salinities they investigated, it would appear that even the worst nightmare of the world??s climate alarmists would not be a great impediment to the continued wellbeing of these two green marine algae, even without the positive influence of evolutionary forces that would likely come into play over the timespan involved in the seawater transformations envisioned by Caldeira and Wickett."
## [2542] "First of all, Sefcik et al . write that \"N deposition may alleviate some photosynthetic acclimation to long-term CO 2 enrichment in N-limited understory seedlings.\" Second, and most importantly - as well as very bluntly but absolutely correctly stated - they say that \"increasing CO 2 and N deposition from fossil fuel combustion can directly impact seedling physiology and survivorship,\" quite obviously for the better. Reviewed 11 April 2007"
## [2543] "The warming weve had in the last thirty years implies that at best, we could expect 1C from a doubling of CO 2 , but observations from eight natural experiments around the globe, and even on Mars and Venus suggest that 0.4C is the upper bound of climate sensitivity to any cause. In addition, if Miscolscki is right, and an increase in carbon dioxide leads to a decrease in water vapor, then the sensitivity due to CO 2 could be close to zero."
## [2544] "But be of good cheer. The carbon dioxide emissions allegedly responsible for Al Gores planetary emergency are helping tomatoes beef up. The Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change maintains a database on field and laboratory experiments measuring plant growth response to CO2-enriched environments. Heres the link for data on tomatoes."
## [2545] "The measured response of the energy fluxes at the top of the atmosphere to the changes of the sea surface temperature is still significantly larger than claimed by the IPCC and the climate sensitivity ends up being 0.7 ??C. In fact, their 99-percent confidence interval is 0.5 - 1.3 ??C. Imagine: they are 99 percent certain that the climate sensitivity can't exceed 1.3 ??C. This is, of course, qualitatively incompatible with the IPCC whose lower bound is 2 ??C."
## [2546] "The sceptics, on the other hand, are fairly obviously quite correct when they say that the high sensitivities postulated by the alarmists do not fit with the measured temperature record of the 20 th and 21 st century."
## [2547] "As the CO 2 content of the air continues to rise, it is likely that regenerating forest communities of beech and spruce will exhibit enhanced fine root production and ectomycorrhizal fungal growth, regardless of soil nutritional characteristics. However, with additional soil nitrogen, these growth increases will likely become even more robust, allowing greater nutrient acquisition and transfer from the fungal symbionts to their host seedlings. Thus, in a future CO 2 -enriched world, these forest communities will likely sequester much greater amounts of atmospheric carbon belowground in fine root and ectomycorrhizal biomass."
## [2548] "Once corals die, they turn \"white\" and have a bleached appearance. But other studies have shown corals are more resilient then previously estimated. One 13-year study of coral reefs showed \"them spontaneously recovering,\" refuting the \"often doomsday forecasts about the worldwide decline of the colorful marine habitat.\" Tom Frazer, professor of aquatic ecology at the University of Florida and part of the research team, told Reuters, \"People have said these systems don't have a chance. What we are saying is: 'Hey, this is evidence they do have a chance.'\""
## [2549] "In an important paper published in the first volume of the new Nature Geoscience journal, Ciais et al . (2008) analyzed national forest inventory data and timber harvest statistics of the EU-15 countries excluding Luxembourg, plus Norway and Switzerland, for the period AD 1950-2000. This work revealed that over this half-century interval, the net primary productivity (NPP) of Europe's forests rose by approximately 67%, while their biomass carbon stocks rose by approximately 75%. This build-up of forest carbon stocks, in the words of the thirteen researchers, \"appears to result from woody NPP exceeding losses by timber harvest and natural disturbances such as fire and wind throw,\" and they say their analyses suggest that 70-80% of the observed increase in NPP has likely been due to \"changes in climate and to the fertilizing effect of CO 2 ,\" which factors, ironically, are the twin evils of the world's climate alarmists."
## [2550] "And the good news reported by Pan et al. that the terrestrial carbon sink continues to expand, is also not particularly shocking. After all, we have known (and reported here at World Climate Report ) for some time that the percentage of anthropogenic CO2 emitted each year that actually stays in the atmosphere has remained pretty constant for several decades, despite ever-rising CO2 emissions from human activities. In order for that to be the case, the earths total (land + ocean) carbon sink must be expanding. And as we know that CO2 makes plants grow faster, better, stronger, more nutritious, more water use efficient, etc. , is seems only reasonable to expect that the terrestrial carbon sink in the worlds forest systems is expanding."
## [2551] "Fig. 2. Re-analysis of the satellite-based feedback parameter estimates of Forster and Gregory (2006) showing that they are consistent with negative feedback rather than positive feedback (low climate sensitivity rather than high climate sensitivity)."
## [2552] "Unfortunately, a distinguished ecologist called Jim Steele found fault with her conclusion: there had been more local extinctions in the southern part of the butterflys range due to urban development than in the north, so only the statistical averages moved north, not the butterflies. There was no correlated local change in temperature anyway, and the butterflies have since recovered throughout their range. When Steele asked Parmesan for her data, she refused . Parmesans paper continues to be cited as evidence of climate change. Steele meanwhile is derided as a denier. No wonder a highly sceptical ecologist I know is very reluctant to break cover."
## [2553] "In drawing general conclusions from their many diverse findings, the authors state that \"red maple typically germinates better and grows larger with increasing atmospheric CO 2 .\" They also state that \"genetic variation in CO 2 responses and the rapid increase in global CO 2 concentration suggest the potential for adaptive evolution of this species, which may further enhance productivity with CO 2 enrichment.\" Or as they describe it in another place, \"this species may evolve in response to globally rising CO 2 so as to increase productivity above that experimentally observed today.\" Consequently, the ongoing rise in the air's CO 2 content bodes well indeed for the future robustness of the planet's red maple trees."
## [2554] "The five scientists state that their results \"do not support the prediction that the response of grassland species to elevated CO 2 will be short-lived as the demand for nutrients increases,\" in clear contradiction of the claim of Luo and Reynolds, as well as the similar claims of others (see our Editorial of 10 December 2003 ); for as they reiterate in the concluding sentence of their paper, \"contrary to the belief that the response of grassland species to elevated CO 2 will be short-lived, stimulation of photosynthesis in T. repens remained after eight years of exposure to elevated CO 2 .\" References"
## [2555] "\"Despite the multiple disturbance events,\" in the words of the six scientists, \"the coral community distribution and composition in 2006 on Saint-Leu Reef did not display major differences compared to 1973.\" This pattern of recurrent recovery is truly remarkable, especially in light of the fact that \"in the wake of cyclone Firinga, Saint-Leu Reef phase-shifted and became algae-dominated for a period of five years,\" and even more amazing when one is informed that following an unnamed cyclone of 27 January 1948, no corals survived. What it means"
## [2556] "If the claims of a damaging influence on coral reefs were true, then the corals would have died millions of years ago."
## [2557] "Tissue and Lewis continue saying that \"glacial plants were severely carbon limited over a very long time period, until atmospheric CO2 began rising during the glacial-interglacial transition.\" In fact, they indicate that \"controlled environment studies with modern plants grown in glacial CO2\" have shown \"significant carbon limitations on plant physiology even when other resources were generally not limiting ,\" citing Dippery et al. (1995) and Tissue et al. (1995). So in spite of anything one could have done to enhance their productivity (other than supply them with more CO2), glacial-age plants simply could not produce the bounty that today's plants do. In fact, they were fortunate to merely survive."
## [2558] "A meta-analysis of the effects of elevated CO2 on 17 variables from 110 published studies reveals that elevated CO2 promoted root morphological development, root system expansion and carbon input to soils, implying that the sensitive responses of root morphology and function to elevated CO2 would increase long-term belowground carbon sequestration?? Read More"
## [2559] "As the air's CO 2 concentration continues to increase, it will likely boost rates of net photosynthesis in nearly all plant species, including white clover and perennial ryegrass. These increases in photosynthesis, in turn, will likely lead to greater root production and enhanced exudation of organic compounds belowground into the soil rhizosphere, which should stimulate the growth and productivity of microbial organisms living there. The present study demonstrated that this reasoning is indeed correct: greater microbial populations existed under CO 2 -enriched plots of white clover and perennial ryegrass than under ambiently-grown plots. Consequently, one would expect earth's plants to increase their productivity even more with greater microbial populations existing beneath them, as bacterial microbes often help to make certain soil nutrients more available to plants."
## [2560] "In other words, the fact that this bear was so thin suggests other issues in effect (sickness, old age, injury), such as likely befell Ian Stirlings polar bear that died of climate change in the same general area in 2013. None of those possible factors are mentioned in this academic paper: it only states the animal was a large adult male."
## [2561] "???our results confirm that the direct biochemical impact of the rapid increase in Ca over the last 30 years on terrestrial vegetation is an influential and observable land surface process.?? Or to put it more directly, the greening of the Earth continues, courtesy of the ongoing rise in the air??s CO2 content."
## [2562] "Now compare these figures with those in AR4 and AR5.Our new best observational ECS estimate of 1.75C is more than 40% lower than both the best estimate in AR4 of 3C and the 3.2C average of GCMs used in AR5. At least as importantly, the top of the likely range for ECS of 3.0C is a third lower than that given in AR5 (4.5C) even after making it much more conservative than is implied by averaging the ranges for each of the observational estimates."
## [2563] "In the third school, where I find myself, reside the lukewarmers those who argue that carbon dioxide indeed is warming surface temperatures, but that its effect is modest and that we are inadvertently adapting. Our mantra: Its not the heat, its the sensitivity. In other words, most climate projections assume that surface temperature is overly sensitive to forcing from carbon dioxide. Our bible consists of observed temperature trends as CO2 increased in the last several decades."
## [2564] "As the CO 2 content of the air rises, it is likely that calcareous grasslands will increase the amount of soil moisture they contain. With greater soil moisture contents, it is likely that microbial activities will increase in such soils, including those that mineralize inorganic nutrients making them available for plant usage. Thus, this chain of events should further stimulate plant growth in these ecosystems by enhancing the growth response resulting from the aerial fertilization effect of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations."
## [2565] "As for other potential explanations for these observations, Jimenez and Cortes note conspecific corals \"have shown differences in susceptibility to bleach, mortality rates and recovery capabilities (Brown, 1997; Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Marshall and Baird, 2000; Fitt et al ., 2001; Glynn et al ., 2001),\" which may \"reflect corals' adaptation to local conditions, different warming intensities at each locality, thermal acclimation, and presence of several clades of symbionts.\" In fact, they state moderate warming events \"may positively affect coral reef communities,\" noting \"increases in growth rates, reproductive activity and recruitment pulses have been observed after some El Nio episodes (Glynn et al ., 1991, 1994; Feingold, 1995; Guzman and Cortes, 2001; Vargas-Angel et al ., 2001; Jimenez and Cortes, 2003b).\""
## [2566] "Kersebaum et al . report that the FACE experiment \"showed two important results: increased CO 2 (i) enhanced crop growth for all investigated species and (ii) decreased evapotranspiration rate of the canopies resulting in higher soil moisture content (Weigel et al ., 2006).\" As a result, they found that \"without consideration of the CO 2 effect, mostly negative impacts on crop yields were simulated,\" but that \"considering the CO 2 effect compensated the negative trend in most cases and turned yield effects to a positive impact.\" What it means"
## [2567] "In the concluding sentence of their paper's abstract, dos Santos et al . say their results show that \"an increased CO 2 concentration can reduce the severity of Ceratocystis wilt and stimulate the growth of Eucalyptus clonal plantlets.\" And it does it all ... at one and the same time. Reference"
## [2568] "First of all, the three researchers - all from the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research located in Bremerhaven, Germany - report that \"four recent studies tested the effect of different CO 2 concentrations on the growth, biomass production and elemental composition of Trichodesmium (Barcelos e Ramos et al ., 2007; Hutchins et al ., 2007; Kranz et al ., 2009; Levitan et al ., 2007),\" and they say that these studies \"concordantly demonstrated higher growth and/or production rates under elevated pCO 2 , with a magnitude exceeding those CO 2 effects previously seen in other marine phytoplankton.\""
## [2569] "Arhenius estimated that a doubling of CO2 would cause a temperature rise of 5 degrees Celsius, recent values from IPCC place this value (the Climate sensitivity) at between 1.5 and 4.5 degrees."
## [2570] "The five researchers report that the chemistry of the sediments employed in their study \"created a microhabitat that supported the growth and development of a benthic foraminiferal community even at highly elevated p CO 2 ,\" such that the \"growth and mortality of living A. aomoriensis were unaffected.\""
## [2571] "This elephant has had to be ignored at all costs. What, the globe isnt warming from manmade CO2 as fast as we predicted? Then it must be manmade aerosols cooling things off. Or the warming is causing the deep ocean to heat up by hundredths or thousandths of a degree. Any reason except reduced climate sensitivity, because low climate sensitivity might mean we really dont have to worry about global warming after all."
## [2572] "\"The biosphere is changing, and changing rapidly,\" according to Fung. And \"currently,\" she notes, \"it is a sink for a quarter of the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions.\" But will it continue? Only time will tell. But as things stand today, she remarks that \"surely, the biosphere must be enjoying the warming.\""
## [2573] "Hao et al . additionally found that the concentrations of a number of beneficial oils in the soybean seeds were increased by an average of 2.8% in response to the 135-ppm increase in the air's CO 2 concentration. However, they also discovered that the total protein concentration in the seeds was reduced by 3.3% in the CO 2 -enriched treatment. But because of the much greater CO 2 -induced increase in the soybean seed yields , or biomass production per unit of cultivated land, they report that the total \"protein and oil yield per unit ground area increased by 24.5% and 32.0%, respectively.\""
## [2574] "Alpine Flora Dynamics in a Warming World (15 Mar 2011) Alpine flora appears to be more adaptive and responsive to climate change than generally believed ... Read More"
## [2575] "Quoting once again the words of Gabay et al ., \"these findings indicate that octocorals may possess certain protective mechanisms against rising levels of p CO 2 ,\" and in this regard they suggest that \"their fleshy tissues act as a barrier, maintaining a stable internal environment and avoiding the adverse effects of the ambient elevated p CO 2 ,\" in line with the similar thinking of Rodolfo-Metalpa et al . (2011), while noting that \"this suggestion is further supported by our finding that the ultrastructural features of O. macroscipulata sclerites are not affected by increased ambient seawater acidity.\" And so it is that they ultimately conclude that \"octocorals might be able to acclimate and withstand rising levels of ocean acidification, even under conditions that are far beyond what is expected to occur by the end of the present century (pH 7.9).\" References"
## [2576] "The negative feedbacks from evaporation & convection of water vapor, clouds, and precipitation illustrate how the climate is self-regulating, independent of CO2."
## [2577] "Here . Excerpt: The climate is not highly sensitive to CO2 warming because water vapour is a damper against the warming effect of CO2. That is why history is full of Ice Ages - where other effects, such as increased reflection from the ice cover, do provide positive feedback - while we do not hear about Heat Ages. The Medieval Warm Period, for example, is known for being benignly warm - not dangerously hot. We live on a benign planet - except when it occasionally gets damned cold."
## [2578] "A review by SPPI and CO2 Science finds theCO2-fertilization induced percentage increase in plant productivity was nearly always greater under water-stressed conditions than it was when plants were well-watered."
## [2579] "It is a well-documented fact that more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases the efficiency of plant growth. As we burn fossil fuels and increase the trace levels of atmospheric CO2, our agriculture flourishes and produces more food with less water. (See The Many Benefits of Atmospheric CO2 Enrichment, Drs. Craig and Sherwood Idso, 2011, Vales Lake Publishing, LLC. )"
## [2580] "The rest of the article is equally superficial. For example, there is lots of discussion of Arrhenius, but no mention of feedbacks. Does Robbins really not see that the difference between disaster and decades - centuries even - of gentle, beneficial warming is the feedbacks? What is gained by shouting \"Arrhenius\" at the top of your voice."
## [2581] "Even polar bears are thriving so far, though this is mainly because of the cessation of hunting. None the less, its worth noting that the three years with the lowest polar bear cub survival in the western Hudson Bay (1974, 1984 and 1992) were the years when the sea ice was too thick for ringed seals to appear in good numbers in spring. Bears need broken ice."
## [2582] "Research shows that swaths of Australias Great Barrier Reef, damaged by the 1998 El Nio, have fully recovered, rebounding strong and healthy. So many questions arise. Do El Nios act to promote species diversity, seed corals to other locations, recharge the water chemistry, reduce overpopulation, etc.?"
## [2583] "Eme et al. exposed two species of tropical fish to significantly warmer water. Both species easily survived the hotter waters, indicating that tropical fish have a high toleration for temperature variation."
## [2584] "Elevated CO 2 enhanced crop nitrogen uptake by 2, 15 and 23% in the low, medium and high nitrogen treatments, respectively. With greater amounts of nitrogen uptake, CO 2 -enriched plants had more raw materials available to support enhanced biomass production, which led to total dry mass enhancements of 38-45%. Atmospheric CO 2 enrichment also positively impacted final grain yields, which were 2, 15 and 23% greater in the low, medium and high nitrogen treatments, respectively. What it means"
## [2585] "As the CO 2 content of the air continues to rise, nutrient poor grasslands of Switzerland will likely exhibit increased biomass both above- and belowground. Although additional phosphorus fertilization would likely increase the absolute magnitude of this response, biomass should significantly increase on a percentage basis nonetheless. Because nitrogen-fixing legumes displayed a competitive growth advantage over other plant types in these simulated grasslands, it may appear that they will flourish at the expense of other species in natural grassland communities as the CO 2 content of the air increases. However, with time, a portion of the additional nitrogen fixed by legumes should become available to neighboring species, which will likely utilize it to their own advantage, thereby preserving the species diversity of the grassland ecosystem."
## [2586] "The team looked for signs of CO 2 fertilization in arid areas, Donohue said, because \"satellites are very good at detecting changes in total leaf cover, and it is in warm, dry environments that the CO 2 effect is expected to most influence leaf cover.\" Leaf cover is the clue, he added, because \"a leaf can extract more carbon from the air during photosynthesis, or lose less water to the air during photosynthesis, or both, due to elevated CO 2 .\" That is the CO 2 fertilization effect."
## [2587] "Concerning these benefits, atmospheric CO 2 is the building block of plant life. It is used by earths plants in the process of photosynthesis to construct their tissues and grow. And as has been conclusively demonstrated in numerous scientific studies, the more CO 2 we put into the air, the better plants grow. Among other findings, they produce greater amounts of biomass, become more efficient at using water, and are better able to cope with environmental stresses such as pollution and high temperatures."
## [2588] "???While the consequences of the various impact mechanisms could have made the surface ocean more acidic, our results do not point to enough ocean acidification to cause global extinctions. Out of several factors we considered in our model simulation, only one (sulphuric acid) could have made the surface ocean severely corrosive to calcite, but even then the amounts of sulphur required are unfeasibly large."
## [2589] "Another Climate Alarmist Scientist Prediction Proven Wrong - Instead of Crop Failures, They Thrive With More CO2 & Warming"
## [2590] "The researchers conclude that the recent estimates of 40 p.p.m.v. CO 2 per degree Celsius can be excluded with 95% confidence, suggesting significantly less amplification of current warming."
## [2591] "Modellers have failed to cut their central estimate of global warming in line with a new, lower feedback estimate from the IPCC. They still predict 3.3 oC of warming per CO2 doubling, when on this ground alone they should only be predicting 2.2 oCabout half from direct warming and half from amplifying feedbacks."
## [2592] "Climate Common Sense: Ocean Acidification ? - The Sea is Alkaline You Dumbos! Now Blind Freddie can see that with a pH of 8.1 ,a natural pH variation of 1.1 and a pH change of only .1 in the last century the sea will never turn acid and that the change attributed to AGW is negligible compared to the natural variation and all the wee sea beasties will not be dissolved in an acid bath of mankind's making!"
## [2593] "8. Whether increased CO2 levels cause significant warming or not, the increased CO2 levels themselves will result in considerable increases in the growth rate of plants, including our food crops and forests."
## [2594] "Dr Mayor added: Our results highlight a potentially positive effect of global warming it may increase the number of healthy copepods in our seas, which is good news for the larvae of fish such as cod and herring, and ultimately fishermen."
## [2595] "scientists are putting the growth acceleration down to rising temperatures and the extended growing season. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrogen are other factors contributing to the faster growth.??"
## [2596] "My interim conclusion is that while it might be the case than some very hot days might have a negative impact on drought stressed crops, this may be more than offset by the beneficient aspects of generally increased sunshine hours and longer growing seasons, not to mention extra co2, which is known to reduce drought stress and increase grain and fruit size. We would be able to make better assessments if sunshine hours figures were available for the specific locations in France where the data was gathered."
## [2597] "(2)In Lindzen and Choi, 2009, what was said was Thus, the small OLR feedback from ERBE might represent the absence of any OLR feedback; it might also result from the cancellation of a possible positive water vapor feedback due to increased water vapor in the upper troposphere and a possible negative iris cloud feedback involving reduced upper level cirrus clouds"
## [2598] "Where is the empirical evidence for warming greater than 1.2 degrees? No one can name and explain a single paper that shows long term positive feedback that amplifies the warming, as the climate alarmists assert."
## [2599] "If the results obtained by Collins et al . for the freshwater Chlamydomonas reinhardtii are typical of what to expect of marine microalgae - which Field et al . suggest may provide nearly half of the primary production of the planet - the totality of earth's plant life may well provide a significant brake upon the rate at which the air's CO 2 content may increase in the future, as well as the ultimate level to which it may rise. A rough indication of just how powerful this phenomenon may be is provided by Collins et al ., when they note that \"mathematical simulations have estimated that pre-industrial levels of CO 2 would have been as high as 460 ppm\" without the operation of the well-known \"biological pump\" (Sarmiento and Toggweiler, 1984), by which dying phytoplankton sink carbon into deep ocean sediments, \"whereas pre-industrial atmospheric CO 2 levels were around 280 ppm (Etheridge et al ., 1996),\" or 180 ppm less. References"
## [2600] "Thats our take, because its the only one that seems internally consistent. But, if somehow we are wrong (a rare event), then greenhouse warming is over, as the sensitivity of the earths temperature to carbon dioxide has been grossly overestimated. Believe us, wed like to hope the latter is correct, but we have to call things in the most logical fashion."
## [2601] "Even our simple 1D model produced a higher climate sensitivity consistent with IPCC claims if we assumed all climate change was due to the same forcings they assume. The IPCC??s climate models are too sensitive (produce too much warming in response to increasing CO2) because they have basically assumed virtually all previous warming was due to increasing CO2, not due to Nature."
## [2602] "Yet, they would never substantially reduce the climate sensitivity of their models to produce less warming, as seen in nature. In other words, if warming hasn?t materialized, then we must have faith that it will eventually appear ? because the climate system must be really sensitive?"
## [2603] "If one additionally entertains the possibility that there is still considerable warming still in the pipeline left from increasing CO 2 , as NASAs Jim Hansen claims, then the need for some natural cooling mechanism to offset it and thus produce no net warming becomes even stronger. Either that, or the climate system is so insensitive to increasing CO 2 that there is essentially no warming left in the pipeline to be realized. (The less sensitive the climate system, the faster it reaches equilibrium when forced with a radiative imbalance.)"
## [2604] "So, is it reasonable to assume these feedback loops? First, none have really been proven empirically, which does not of course necessarily make them wrong. . In our daily lives, we generally deal with negative feedback: inertia, wind resistance, friction are all negative feedback processes. If one knew nothing else, and had to guess if a natural process was governed by negative or positive feedback, Occams razor would say bet on negative. Also, we will observe in the next section that when the models with these feedbacks were first run against history, they produced far more warming than we have actually seen (remember the analysis we started this section with post-industrial warming implies 1-1.5 degrees sensitivity, not four)."
## [2605] "As for the implications of these several findings, Stoks et al . say they suggest that \"besides genetic changes, also phenotypic plasticity and evolution of plasticity likely will contribute to observed phenotypic changes under global warming in aquatic invertebrates,\" which further suggests that freshwater invertebrates should be able to weather whatever challenges (in the form of changes) earth's climate may thrust upon them."
## [2606] "Read here . Agriculture prospers in warm conditions and crops respond fantastically to more atmospheric CO2. More CO2 feeds more people and reduces hunger, unless they use the food to fuel more cars - dumb."
## [2607] "It means that something like Lindzen's adaptive iris effect must take place. Now, Lindzen's iris effect is just one possible mechanism how it can occur and I can't promise you that this is exactly what happens. But I think that much more general principles of physics make it extremely likely that the main result - namely that clouds and other things provide us with a negative feedback - is true."
## [2608] "Moghaddam et al . report that the daily two-hour 400-ppm increase in the controlled environment chambers' atmospheric CO 2 concentration led to a 193% increase in C. asiatica leaf biomass, a 264% increase in plant water use efficiency, as well as a 171% increase in leaf total flavonoid content."
## [2609] "The authors found that juniper trees recovered better from the effects of drought in the 1994-1998 period, when the average CO 2 concentration of the air was 343 ppm, than in the 1896-1930 period, when the average CO 2 concentration of the air was 300 ppm, noting that \"greater recovery following drought in the late period is consistent with the expected ameliorating influences of atmospheric CO 2 under stressful conditions,\" which they attributed to a CO 2 -induced increase in tree water use efficiency in the late period and for which they cited much corroborative information. What it means"
## [2610] "In the words of the scientists who conducted the research, \"the fact that the temperature sensitivity of gross primary productivity is larger than that of ecosystem respiration suggests that global warming could lead to increased carbon sequestration in boreal ecosystems.\" References"
## [2611] "Apparently, many in Washington and elsewhere, particularly those in the Administration, remain ignorant of the critical role CO2 has in life on the planet and the enormous benefits that enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide is providing to plant life, to the environment, and to humanity. One is tempted to ask: are those who declare that carbon is a pollutant of a different, carbon-free life form?"
## [2612] "All across the planet, the historical increase in the atmospheres CO2 concentration has stimulated vegetative productivity, reads a portion of the 1,063-page report, called Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts. This observed stimulation, or greening of the Earth, has occurred in spite of many real and imagined assaults on Earths vegetation, including fires, disease, pest outbreaks, deforestation and climatic change."
## [2613] "The three researchers' data indicate that relative to the plants grown at 300 ppm CO 2 , those grown at 400, 500 and 600 ppm produced approximately 200, 275 and 390% more aboveground biomass, respectively, as best we can determine from their bar graphs. In addition, they report that \"reproductively, increasing CO 2 from 300 to 600 ppm increased the number of capsules, capsule weight and latex production by 3.6, 3.0 and 3.7 times, respectively, on a per plant basis,\" with the ultimate result that \"all alkaloids increased significantly on a per plant basis.\" What it means"
## [2614] "Broadly speaking, the IPCC expects this centurys warming to be equivalent to that from a doubling of CO2 concentration. In that event, 1 C is indeed all the warming we should expect from a CO2 doubling. And is that going to be a problem?"
## [2615] "Sure, there are some time delay issues, probably 10-15 years, as well as some potential anthropogenic cooling from aerosols, but none of this closes these tremendous gaps. Even with an exaggerated temperature history, only the no feedback 1C per century case is really validated by history. And, if one assumes the actual warming is less than 0.6C, and only a part of that is from anthropogenic CO2, then the actual warming forecast justified is one of negative feedback, showing less than 1C per century warming from manmade CO2 which is EXACTLY the case that most skeptics make."
## [2616] "Noting that \"the photosynthesis of the majority of the species examined was not saturated at the current levels of DIC in the ocean and responded to an increase in CO 2 ,\" Koch et al . conclude that seagrasses and many marine macroalgae have the potential to respond positively, in terms of photosynthesis and growth, under elevated ocean CO 2 and OA. Reviewed 15 May 2013"
## [2617] "That the earths terrestrial CO2 uptake has been growing is evidenced in the remarkable enhancement of global vegetation during the past 20 years, as reported by in a recent paper by Ramakrishna Nemani and colleagues. Nemani et al. report that this growth enhancement results from a combination of two major influencesthe increased fertilization effect from rising concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide and the patterns of change in the earths climate during the study period."
## [2618] "For example, top selling German daily Bild did not even bother to feature the MPIs Arctic meltdown press conference. Instead Bild featured a story on how clouds have been getting lower and that a negative feedback seems to be in play and is acting to cool the planet."
## [2619] "Martinez et al . report that the warmed plants showed \"good photochemical performance and photosynthetic adjustment under warming conditions,\" which led to \"higher growth and biomass production than control plants,\" likely due to \"adjustments in both the photosynthetic thermal optimum and the photosynthetic rates at the growth temperature,\" a combination that they say \"may be a constructive adjustment,\" citing the supportive studies of Zhang and Dang (2013) and Way and Yamori (2014). And they also report that the S. capitata plants they studied \"increased their chlorophyll content and antioxidative enzyme activity.\""
## [2620] "Darbah et al . report they recorded \"an increase of 140% and 70% for 2006 and 2007, respectively, in the total number of trees that produced male flowers under elevated CO 2 and an increase of 260% in 2006 and 100% in 2007, respectively, in the quantity of male flowers produced under elevated CO 2 .\" What it means"
## [2621] "note: photoshopped image above was removed after being exposed as fake. see also here and here .A real photo of polar bears. Polar bear populations up 400% ."
## [2622] "The five scientists also note that \"the ocean will change over coming decades more gradually than in laboratory experiments.\" And, therefore, they suggest that changing ocean conditions may result in the production of more resistant invertebrate larvae, through phenotypic buffering and natural selection . In addition, they write that \"acclimatization of urchins and oysters to moderately elevated p CO 2 can result in trans-life cycle enhancement of larval and juvenile tolerance of reduced pH in some species,\" citing the studies of Parker et al . (2012) and Dupont et al . (2014). And they similarly note that \"trans-generational phenotypic resilience to increased temperature has also been shown for sea urchins,\" citing O'Connor and Mulley (1977) and Johnson and Babcock (1994)."
## [2623] "One of the foremost authorities on polar bears, Canadian biologist, Dr. Mitchell Taylor, testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. He said : Of the 13 populations of polar bears in Canada, 11 are stable or increasing in number. They are not going extinct, or even appear to be affected at present."
## [2624] "I was hoping to avoid debate on the science, but what you say is actually incorrect. Positive feedbacks dont necessarily lead to run away effects if the strength of the feedback changes, or other effects become more significant leading to an equilibrium being reached."
## [2625] "??? If the new reconstruction of Southern Hemisphere temperature is accurate, then estimates of climate sensitivity the response of global temperature change to a given amount of external radiative forcing may be lower than those calculated based solely on Northern Hemisphere reconstructions 10 ."
## [2626] "???Hydroponic growers use co2 in their operations,?? says reader John the 1st. ???There are several great videos on you tube demonstrating it. Plant yield, root structure ??? everything ??? is improved.??"
## [2627] "From the Industrial Revolution to 1950, atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations rose by about 15 percent. Today, the increase is up to 41 percent, making long periods without warming either 1) increasingly unlikely, or 2) the natural result of simply overestimating how sensitive surface temperature is to carbon dioxide. My money is on the latter."
## [2628] "As regards coral bleaching, in the words of Wall et al ., \"the present results clearly support a null effect for high pCO 2 .\" Or as they state in the final sentence of their paper's abstract, \"short-term exposure to 81.5 Pa pCO 2 , alone and in combination with elevated temperature, does not cause or affect coral bleaching.\" Reviewed 7 May 2014"
## [2629] "A GOVERNMENT-RUN research body has found in an extensive study of corals spanning more than 1000km of Australias coastline that the past 110 years of ocean warming has been good for their growth."
## [2630] "The latest science suggests the equilibrium climate sensitivity probably lies between 1.5C and 2.5C (with an average value of 2.0C), while the climate models used by the IPCC have climate sensitivities which range from 2.1C to 4.7C with an average value of 3.2C."
## [2631] "Figure 12. Coral seems to be A-OK with CO2 levels of 1,000 ppmv. This might explain how they thrived in the Mesozoic Era."
## [2632] "The final thing I learned from this study is that creatures in the ocean live happily in a wide range of alkalinities, from a high of over 8.0 down to almost neutral. As a result, the idea that a slight change in alkalinity will somehow knock the ocean dead doesn??t make any sense. By geological standards, the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere is currently quite low. It has been several times higher in the past, with the inevitable changes in the oceanic pH ?? and despite that, the life in the ocean continued to flourish."
## [2633] "Brian Valentine, an engineer with the U.S. Department of Energy and scientific reviewer and consultant to the departments Office of Science for DOE National Laboratory-directed programs in computing, chemical, and climate science, argued, If about 100 million years of discernable and unequivocal Earthly climate evidence has demonstrated that the climate sensitivity to the doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere cannot be any higher than the value of this quantity described by Monckton et al., then how much more evidence to we need?"
## [2634] "With more and longer lateral roots in a future CO 2 -enriched atmosphere, tomato plants (and likely other plants as well) should be better equipped to take up both major and micro nutrients from the soils in which they grow, making them both bigger and better and more apt to produce larger and more nutritious fruit ... and more of it ."
## [2635] "In summation, with the passage of time, more and more evidence is accumulating that suggests the impacts of ocean acidification on echinoderms may not be as bad as many initially thought. Indeed, for many echinoderm species, the impacts will likely be minimal, if not altogether positive."
## [2636] "In the words of Grenchik et al ., \"this study shows that there is capacity for thermal acclimation during development, with individuals reared from an early age at some temperatures able to modify their physiology to maintain RMRs at near present-day levels,\" with the result that this developmental thermal acclimation \"may assist coral reef fish to cope with increases in water temperature without a substantial loss to performance.\" Reference"
## [2637] "There is no human activity whatsoever that does not generate CO2, and no plant can grow without a generous supply of CO2 in the atmosphere. More than any other substance on earth, production of CO2 measures human prosperity and plant growth."
## [2638] "This graph below from Bishop Hill shows that it isnt just one paper, but several now that show lower climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2."
## [2639] "Characteristic bleaching scars and isotope temperature records from coral cores commonly show evidence of past bleaching events going back thousands of years. There is no evidence for a recent increase in frequency and/or severity of bleaching events and nothing to link extended periods of calm winds with global warming."
## [2640] "The ultimate conclusion of this study is that rising temperatures and elevated CO2 will be beneficial for dwarf bamboo that the pandas feed upon, as it will lead to the production of more equally-nutritious dwarf bamboo tissue?? Read More"
## [2641] "Chua et al . say they \"found no consistent effect of elevated pCO 2 on fertilization, development, survivorship or metamorphosis, neither alone nor in combination with temperature.\" As for warming, they also say that it \"had no consistent effect on fertilization, survivorship or metamorphosis.\" However, they observed that the two degrees of warming actually increased rates of development. And that is good news concerning the future of these organisms!"
## [2642] "Now, you may be expecting me to argue that there is a lot of sea water and the net effect of trace CO2 in the atmosphere would not affect the pH much, especially since seawater starts pretty alkaline. And I probably could argue this, but there is a better argument and I am embarrassed that I never saw it before."
## [2643] "Dr. Kharuk describes the tree on the right as living under the tyranny of colder climates of the past. It grew slowly: its form is twisted, its needles are sparse, the diameter is small, and it is not very tall. The younger tree has grown, he says, under the freedom of recent, milder climates. It is shooting up tall, straight, and full. It grows a relatively large amount each year, which results in a larger trunk diameter. (Photograph by Jon Ranson.)"
## [2644] "As the CO 2 content of the atmosphere increases, perennial ryegrass will likely respond by exhibiting enhanced rates of photosynthesis and biomass production, even in nitrogen-poor soils, as has been empirically demonstrated by Hartwig et al ., (2002). Over the long haul, in fact, low-nitrogen soils should see much greater CO 2 -induced productivity increases than high-nitrogen soils. Reference"
## [2645] "Other scientists suspected Pounds correlations with climate change were simply due to a lack of statistical rigor. In a 2008 paper, Evaluating the links between climate, disease spread, and amphibian declines the researchers demonstrated just how easy it is to generate meaningless statistical correlations. In response to Pounds link to global warming they wrote, Numerous other variables, including regional banana and beer production, were better predictors of these extinctions . Almost all of our findings were opposite to the predictions of the chytrid-thermal-optimum hypothesis. 18"
## [2646] "Ow et al. say the results of their study \"demonstrated that tropical seagrasses can increase their photosynthetic rates, adjust photosynthetic performance and increase growth rates in response to CO 2 enrichment\" (see figure below), and that this \"ability of marine macro-autotrophs to utilize the greater CO 2 availability suggests that they will thrive under future scenarios of climate change,\" further citing Koch et al. (2013) in this regard and adding that still-earlier \"observations of high seagrass abundance at CO 2 seep sites indicate seagrass productivity might continually benefit from pCO 2 enrichment over the long term,\" citing Fabricius et al. (2011)."
## [2647] "Its certainly true that carbon dioxide is good for vegetation, Dyson said. About 15 percent of agricultural yields are due to CO-2 we put in the atmosphere. From that point of view, its a real plus to burn coal and oil."
## [2648] "\"Studies conducted to date have made uniformly bleak predictions for the survival of tropical forest lizards around the globe our data show that four similar species, occurring in the same geographic region, differ markedly in their vulnerabilities to climate warming,\" the authors of the study write in the learned journal Global Change Biology . \"Moreover, none appear to be on the brink of extinction. Considering that these populations occur over extremely small geographic ranges, it is possible that many tropical forest lizards, which range over much wider areas, may have even greater opportunity to escape warming.\""
## [2649] "Extensive surveys by the US Forest Service contradict the NWFs cry that warming is forcing pika upslope, and with no place left to go face extinction. As discussed here , 19% of the currently known pika populations in California and Nevada are at lower elevations than ever documented by any study, including benchmark studies during the cooler early 1900s. Further north in the Columbia River Gorge, another independent researcher also found pika at much lower elevations, surviving at temperatures much higher than their models had predicted."
## [2650] "As the temperature of the ocean surface rises in response to increases in diurnal and seasonal forcing factors, concentrations of DMS and its oxidation products (MSA and nss-SO 4 2- ) rise dramatically, inducing a negative feedback that tends to counter the impetus for warming. Hence, there is every reason to believe that the same negative feedback phenomenon operates in the case of long-term warming that could arise as a result of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, and that it could substantially mute their combined climatic impact."
## [2651] "A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds coral reefs are thriving in \"naturally acidified\" waters in Palau, one of the top diving destinations in the world. According to the authors, \"we report the existence of highly diverse, coral-dominated reef communities under chronically low pH and aragonite saturation state...where acidification levels approach those projected for the western tropical Pacific open ocean by 2100. Nevertheless, coral diversity, cover and calcification rates are maintained across this natural acidification gradient.\""
## [2652] "In other words, it is the natural reality of extinction events and species evolution that has led to the ultimate enrichment of ecosystems and biodiversity with niches and opportunities for new species."
## [2653] "In 1990, the IPCCs central estimate of near-term warming was higher by two-thirds than it is today. Then it was 2.8 C/century equivalent. Now it is just 1.7 C equivalent and, as Fig. 3 shows, even that is proving to be a substantial exaggeration."
## [2654] "Good news for reefs: How corals could survive a warming planet. Corals evolved with CO2 levels 18X higher than present"
## [2655] "For the 79 countries included in their analysis, Ihm et al . report that \"vascular plant species richness showed large variability, ranging from 377 to 51,220 species per country, or 0.0003 to 0.2896 species per km 2 .\" In addition, they found that \"variability declined while richness gradually increased as one moved from Arctic to Equator regions.\" Based on this relationship, and noting that \"over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.5C,\" their derived relationship indicated that this 100-year elevation in air temperature was associated with a species richness increase of 0.8%. And when they \"estimated the effect of higher temperatures,\" such as those predicted for the future, they found that \"a 1 or 2C rise in global warming produced an increase in species richness of 1.6 or 3.2%.\" What it means"
## [2656] "How can you be on board with the science. Do you not understand that the whole AGW theory is based upon a planetary climate positive feedback . If such a thing actually existed, then this planet would be either roasting, or frigid; and it would have arrived at that state within a few million years. This planet has been pretty good, except when it got cold during ice ages, for about 4.5 billion years."
## [2657] "3.While human addition of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), to the atmosphere may slightly raise atmospheric temperatures, observational studies indicate that the climate system responds more in ways that suppress than in ways that amplify CO 2 s effect on temperature, implying a relatively small and benign rather than large and dangerous warming effect."
## [2658] "Throughout the period of pod filling, the mean photosynthetic rate of plants growing in ambient-CO 2 but elevated-SO 2 air was 17.2% lower than the mean rate of plants growing in ambient-CO 2 and SO 2 -free air, while the mean photosynthetic rate of plants growing in CO 2 -enriched but SO 2 -free air was 25.1% higher than the mean rate of plants growing in ambient-CO 2 and SO 2 -free air. Most important of all, the mean photosynthetic rate of plants growing in CO 2 -enriched and elevated-SO 2 air was 33.4% greater than the mean rate of plants growing in ambient-CO 2 and SO 2 -free air. Hence, enriching the air with CO 2 more than compensated for the negative effects of elevated SO 2 on photosynthesis rates of soybeans in this study. What it means"
## [2659] "The bottom line is that claims that these pH changes are unprecedented, fast or unnatural are overstating things dramatically. Typical estuarine environments have an inflow from rivers (with a lower pH) that fluctuates wildly, so do areas with upwelling, and even the pH in kelp forests varies dynamically."
## [2660] "is a non-pollutant, and is necessary for life on earth. Concentrations of the others are negligible compared with their Threshold Limit Value . Methyl mercury can be dangerous in high concentrations, but volcanoes are responsible for half of all mercury emissions. Eruptions usually result in a 4-6x increase in atmospheric mercury."
## [2661] "In fact, polar bears have likely survived past ice-free periods in the Arctic. Scientists recently found there's no evidence of marine life extinctions in the Arctic in the past 1.5 million years, despite the Arctic going through periods of prolonged periods with no summer ice cover."
## [2662] "For the scenario with lower -than-typically-assumed increases in CO 2 emissions and air temperature, the NEP of the globe increased from a positive (carbon-sequestering) value of 0.8 Pg C yr -1 in 1990 to 1.3 Pg C yr -1 in 2100, for a rate increase of 62% over the 110-year period. For typically -assumed increases in CO 2 and temperature, corresponding NEP values were 0.8 and 2.6 Pg C yr -1 , yielding a rate increase of 225%. And for higher -than-typically-assumed increases in CO 2 and temperature, NEP values of 0.8 and 3.4 Pg C yr -1 were obtained, for a rate increase of 325%. What it means"
## [2663] "As illustrated in the Evans et al graph below, coastal upwelling can oversaturate the surface waters to 1000 matm, 2.5 times above atmospheric pCO 2 (represented by dashed horizontal line). Within weeks the biological response sequesters and exports that carbon so that concentrations of surface water CO 2 fall as low as 200 matm; a concentration that would still be under-saturated relative to the Little Ice Ages atmosphere. Relative to these rapid seasonal changes in pH, fears that marine organisms cannot adapt quickly enough to the relatively slower changes wrought by anthropogenic CO 2 seem overblown."
## [2664] "After the fourth year of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment, a detailed analysis indicated that elevated CO 2 reduced needle stomatal density by an average of 7.4%. In contrast, elevated CO 2 increased needle thickness, mesophyll tissue area, and total cross-sectional area by averages by 6.4, 5.7, and 10.4%, respectively. In addition, atmospheric CO 2 enrichment increased the average relative area occupied by phloem cells by 4.4%."
## [2665] "Scuba divers know that reef creatures already experience acidic conditions near CO2 vents in the ocean floor. These vents bubble CO2 gas amidst coral reefs and grassy ocean pastures in millions of locations. Fish and reefs appear to be doing quite well near these CO2 vents."
## [2666] "They found that it took just two generations of tropical damsel fish, common on the Great Barrier Reef, to adapt when they were reared from birth in tanks of warm water."
## [2667] "The results of this study indicate that, at least for the crop investigated, the positive effects of atmospheric CO 2 enrichment on flower and biomass production are greater at more realistic or natural values of UV-B radiation than what are characteristic of many greenhouses. The authors thus say their results \"clearly indicate the importance of using UV-B transmittant greenhouses or open-top chambers when conducting CO 2 studies.\" If this is not done, their work suggests the results obtained may not depict the true magnitude of biological benefits to be received from atmospheric CO 2 enrichment."
## [2668] "You??ve no doubt heard that global warming will make life harder for some species. But have you also heard that rising temperatures may actually benefit others? Well believe it or not such may be the case, as seen for example by mountain lizards in France and butterflies in England. According to an article in World Climate Report, researchers in France discovered that, as temperatures have increased modestly in recent years, so too has the size and fertility of that nation??s mountain lizards. A similar finding regarding butterflies has also been observed, as scientists in England discovered that the richness of British butterfly species has actually increased as temperatures have warmed. Apparently some species, like some humans, like it hot."
## [2669] "However, that??s just evidence in support of my hypothesis that the clouds (and other emergent phenomena) act to minimize changes in temperature. It says nothing about whether there is a solar signal there or not. To determine that, I calculated the periodogram for the average cloud percentages shown in Figure 4."
## [2670] "Abstract: Consumption of all the worlds fossil fuels at any credible rate will not achieve a doubling of the current CO2 level and will increase world temperature by barely one-half degree Celsius. The achievable level of atmospheric CO2 is proportional to its release rate because its dilution by exchange with the land and ocean takes time. An instantaneous release is the worst case and if the entire worlds CO2 from fossil fuels were so released (impossible, of course) it represents an extreme upper bound to the CO2 level. And even that would achieve an increase of less than 3 degrees Celsius. Most significant, however, is the strong evidence that feedback from increased CO2 is negative."
## [2671] "Now it does not give a likeliest value and admits it is likely it may be as little as 1.5C so giving the world many more decades to work out how to reduce carbon emissions before temperatures rise to dangerous levels."
## [2672] "The IPCC alleges 1 Wm-2 increase in radiative forcing causes a 3C/3.7 Wm-2 or .81C increase in surface temperature, but if evaporative cooling from water vapor offsets this by 66% or 0.54C according to Dr. Caliera's paper, only a 0.27C residual warming would remain. Therefore, climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 levels after evaporative cooling from water vapor would only be ~.33*3C = 1C, i.e. not of concern and likelybeneficial."
## [2673] "As the CO 2 content of the air rises, it is likely that loblolly pine, which is an economically important timber species, will respond by increasing its photosynthesis and growth. The consequences of these phenomena are far-reaching, as indicated by the authors statement that \"projected increases in the atmospheric content of CO 2 may result in increased wood production without a loss in structural strength in loblolly pine.\" Furthermore, it is conceivable that loblolly pine can even increase its structural integrity by increasing its wood density, if the observed trends for this parameter persist through its juvenile growth phase."
## [2674] "As the air's CO 2 content continues to rise, it will likely allow these wheat cultivars and others to experience less stress and growth reductions as a consequence of SO 2 pollution. Indeed, the current study demonstrates that CO 2 -induced increases in photosynthesis will only be partially offset by elevated SO 2 concentrations, which should allow greater wheat yields to be produced in the future. In addition, since SO 2 -induced reductions in plant water-use efficiency were essentially eliminated by concurrent exposure to elevated CO 2 , these cultivars should be able to grow better in areas with limited water availability or in areas close to industrial complexes emitting large quantities of SO 2 . Also, wheat plants growing in SO 2 -polluted air should not suffer as large reductions in foliar protein content in a future high-CO 2 world as they do currently."
## [2675] "With sufficient supplies of the first two key ingredients, depending on its location on earth, any kind of tree will grow at a rate determined by its ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and convert the suns radiation via the photosynthesis process to wood. The higher the level of CO2 in the air, the faster it will grow."
## [2676] "What do you do if you are a global warming alarmist and real-world temperatures do not warm as much as your climate model predicted?"
## [2677] "First, the computer climate models on which predictions of rapid warming from enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration are based \"run hot,\" simulating two to three times the warming actually observed over relevant periodsduring which non-anthropogenic causes probably accounted for some and could have accounted for all the observed warmingand therefore provide no rational basis for predicting future GAT."
## [2678] "5) The science is not settled, not by a long shot. Last month, scientists at CERN, the prestigious high-energy physics lab in Switzerland, reported that neutrinos might \"repeat, might \"travel faster than the speed of light. If serious scientists can question Einstein's theory of relativity, then there must be room for debate about the workings and complexities of the Earth's atmosphere."
## [2679] "This media reporting has become typical of the bias that many journalists have. Not reported in the media (but wellreportedon ICECAP by Joe DAleo) themedia has ignored in their reportingthe increase in Antarctic sea ice cover in recent years, with, at present, a coverage that is well over 1 million square kilometers above average (see )!"
## [2680] "In short, according to Bellenger, et al. (2013), the current generation of climate models (CMIP5: used by the IPCC for their 5 th Assessment Report and by Power et al (2013)) still cannot simulate basic coupled ocean-atmosphere processes associated with El Nio and La Nia eventsbasic processes."
## [2681] "In reality sea level changes can be measured accurately only to centimetres, and often only to within several centimetres and very often not even that. Munk (3) confirms this writing that:"
## [2682] "I do not agree that this was merely a ???slight mis-statement in a single sentence?? as the same argument had been made in their March 1 submission to Muir Russell, a submission which did not include accompanying ???copious?? information evidencing the error to the Muir Russell panel as a ???slight mis-statement??. It also speaks poorly that CRU would make a ???mis-statement?? to Muir Russell on an issue so central to Climategate."
## [2683] "Only this week Lord Lawson's Global Warming Policy Foundation claimed that the Met Office's computer model for predicting climate change was flawed."
## [2684] "5) Vicious personal attacks continue on scientists, businessmen, politicians and others who disagree publicly with the catechism of climate cataclysm. Alarmist pressure groups and Democrat members of Congress are out to destroy the studies, funding, reputations and careers of all who dare challenge climate disaster tautologies. At President Obama's behest, even disaster aid agencies are piling on."
## [2685] "There is no getting around it. The models are wrong. The energy balance is so central that none of their other predictions can be relied on."
## [2686] "Some days we are told that CO2 is making the weather cold. Other days we are told that CO2 is making the weather warm. Without some actual evidence that the Earth is heating by a dangerous amount, James Whites statement is pointless."
## [2687] "What are the models missing? Obsessed with radiation from greenhouse forcings and questionable temperature feedbacks, they ignore or poorly parameterize many important climate processes and undervalue the net cooling effect of the following events:"
## [2688] "No matter what happens to the climate between now and the publication of the IPCCs 5th Assessment Report, we can be sure that the alarmism will be ratcheted up to ever more preposterous heights to keep the research funds flooding in. Everything will be bigger, faster, badder, worse than we thought, quicker than we thought etc, etc. The IPCC, and thousands of climate scientists, are too dependent on the global warming scare to let it go without a fight. And its started already. The IPCCs AR4 predictions for sea level rise were exaggerated enough, but AR5 will be worse:"
## [2689] "The investigation into the alleged global warming data fraud by Virginias Attorney General may soon have a whole new angle. This comes from a previously overlooked connection between discredited tree-ring proxy researcher, Michael Mann and Yales now deceased climate professor, Barry Saltzman."
## [2690] "It is impossible to present reliable future projections from a collection of climate models which generally cannot simulate observed change. As a consequence, we recommend that unless/until the collection of climate models can be demonstrated to accurately capture observed characteristics of known climate changes, policymakers should avoid basing any decisions upon projections made from them. Further, those policies which have already be established using projections from these climate models should be revisited. Assessments which suffer from the inclusion of unreliable climate model projections include those produced by the IPCC and the U.S. Global Climate Change Research Program (including their most recent National Climate Assessment). Policies which are based upon such assessments include those established by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency pertaining to the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions under the Clean Air Act."
## [2691] "The unvalidated IPCC (and CSIRO) computer climate models that project significant human-caused warming in the future are faulty, with many known inadequacies; not surprisingly, therefore, these models have proved to be incorrect when compared with real-world temperature data;"
## [2692] "Perhaps worse is the ACIAs proposed prescription of fixing all the ills of the purported Arctic climate trend by taking steps toward the reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. In the end, that premise is obviously more of a political posture than a legitimate scientific conclusion."
## [2693] "Look for the satellite data to be adjusted to bring it into compliance with the fully fraudulent surface temperatures. The Guardian is now workingtodiscredit UAH, so it seems likely that RSS will soon be making big changes to match the needs of the climate mafia. Bookmark this post."
## [2694] "Something else also stands out in the 3 regions where current temperatures are warmest, my Figure 2. Only one of the reconstructions extends back the full 2000 years. Would Asia and Australasia have warmer temperatures than those weve experienced recently if their reconstructions could be extended farther back in time? Dunno."
## [2695] "Read here and here . The impressive success of the harmonic astronomical climate model (left chart) is in the realm of spectacular when compared to the robust, abysmal performance of the IPCC's (middle chart) and NASA's (right chart) traditional CO2-based climate models. The failure of the CO2-centric models is due in large part to their inability to reproduce the known decadal and multi-decadal oscillations that are part and parcel to the world's climate."
## [2696] "Jones even blocked the opinion of the ABC??s own highly-respected conservative voice, Michael Duffy. Duffy could not get a word in, having made it clear that he would not tow the ABC pro-climate change line. Early on in the panel discussion, Duffy had queried why there was such organised criticism and deconstruction of Durkin??s documentary, and no such treatment of Al Gore??s Inconvenient Truth."
## [2697] "Land-based thermometers are frequently compromised by the urban heat island effect. The microclimate around a land-based thermometer can change due to urban encroachment, such as nearby asphalt, concrete, buildings, air conditioners, cars, electrical appliances, or changes in vegetation. The annual mean air temperature of a city with 1 million people can be 13C warmer than its surroundings . In the evening, the difference can be as high as 12C."
## [2698] "This isn't the first time that NOAA has used dubious data to justify global warming alarmism. In early June, NOAA rewrote the historical climate record by making it \"cooler\" so the present appears warmer. Even climate scientists who believe that man is primarily responsible for the planet warming less than one degree Celsius over the last 100 years rejected NOAA's readjustments to hide the 18-year-and-counting global warming hiatus."
## [2699] "The fact is also: The projections from scientists have failed to forecast the stop in the temperature rise."
## [2700] "The authors write that \"the ability of coupled climate models to simulate the characteristics of the monsoon in present day climate is an important condition for the use of such models to make future climate projections.\" But they say that in the study of Smith et al . (2012), \"the relationship between seasonal winds and rainfall was not always well represented,\" while adding that \"the observed negative correlation between Indian rainfall and El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was ... too weak in CMIP5 models,\" citing Sperber et al . (2013). What was done"
## [2701] "Yesterday, after a four-month review, a committee of scientists concluded that the Nobel prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has \"assigned high confidence to statements for which there is very little evidence\", has failed to enforce its own guidelines, has been guilty of too little transparency, has ignored critical review comments and has had no policies on conflict of interest\"."
## [2702] "Normally, I might not deal with a four year old paper by James Hansen, the NASA doyenne of serial doomcasters. However, I note that this paper has been cited ten times this year alone, so I thought I might comment."
## [2703] "The reason why NASA/NCDC surface data doesnt match satellite data, is because their surface data is fraudulent"
## [2704] "Can any of the areas of the science now be considered settled as a result of AR5s publication, if so which? Unfortunately very few things are settled in the global warming debate. There is only one solid fact: the greenhouse gas concentrations are rising and humans are causing this increase. A second fact is that the climate is warmer than a century ago. How much warmer exactly is still a matter of debate. And how much of the warming is attributable to humans is also far from settled."
## [2705] "2. Are the 80 temperature proxies used in the paper sufficiently accurate to establish a solid global temperature chronology?"
## [2706] "The NOAA HAS made adjustments to US temperature data over the last few years that has increased the apparent warming trend. These changes in adjustments have not been well-explained. In fact, they have not really be explained at all, and have only been detected by skeptics who happened to archive old NOAA charts and created comparisons like the one below. Here is the before and after animation (pre-2000 NOAA US temperature history vs. post-2000). History has been cooled and modern temperatures have been warmed from where they were being shown previously by the NOAA. This does not mean the current version is wrong, but since the entire US warming signal was effectively created by these changes, it is not unreasonable to act for a detailed reconciliation (particularly when those folks preparing the chart all believe that temperatures are going up, so would be predisposed to treating a flat temperature chart like the earlier version as wrong and in need of correction."
## [2707] "Thus, three of the four variations contributing to the composite in the medieval period are dominated by NH proxies. Bristlecones, contaminated sediments and Luterbacher??s European instrumental-using network all contribute in varying degrees to three of the four variations, proving my point."
## [2708] "None of the IPCC models skillfully predicted the major weather pattern variations (and their observed variations in frequency over time) for the 20 th century. The 1930s and 1950s droughts in the United States , for example, have not been accurately simulated by the IPPC models. The one climate metric that they focus on (the global average surface temperature trend) has been reasonably simulated primarily because they can determine what level of aerosols in the atmosphere over the past decades is required to explain the observed variations of warming and cooling during this time period."
## [2709] "This year marks the 10th anniversary of Al Gore's Oscar-winning documentary, An Inconvenient Truth. The documentary was a critical and box-office success here in the U.S., but not so much in the U.K. In 2007 a High Court ruling in Great Britain found that Gore's documentary on climate change contained key scientific errors and breached education law, making it unacceptable for viewing by students. \"Representing partisan political views,\" the film could only legally be shown if accompanied by a warning about political indoctrination."
## [2710] "The last thing that I should be doing is working on new proxies without finishing off work in hand, but this new data is interesting and, with it in hand, Thompson et al is even more frustrating. There are some weird splices that you don??t notice at a first read, but start to stick out when you have some data to compare it to. Here??s some more curiosities. See also a previous post here."
## [2711] "Held a high-priced, widely publicized, assume-alarmist-science conference in 2008, Beyond Science: The Economics and Politics of Responding to Climate Change , featuring John Kerry and John Holdren on the political side."
## [2712] "Note that Schmidt and Sherwood did not dispute the fact that the CMIP5 models performed worse than the earlier generation CMIP3 models at simulating global surface temperatures outside of the Arctic over recent decades. Schmidt and Sherwood simply commented on the practices of modeling groups. Regardless of the practices, in recent decades, the CMIP5 models perform better (but still bad) in the Arctic but worse outside the Arctic than the earlier generation models."
## [2713] "The Global Warmingists have covered all their bases. No matter what the weather is like, it always turns out to be exactly the kind of weather we should expect if human activity were causing global temperatures to rise."
## [2714] "Apparently that wasnt enough though. An astute reader (Steve Case) captured the USHCN data in 2008 and again today. Below is a plot of the further adjustments during the last two years. Once again, the present has been artificially made warmer and the past has been made cooler. Temperatures in 2007 were raised by 0.16 degrees, and temperatures were lowered by 0.08 degrees in 1930."
## [2715] "I pointed out that the rules of the UN's climate panel require openness and transparency. He made it quite clear that he and the other Climategate emailers did not care about openness and transparency. Only one opinion would be permitted: and that would be the most extreme alarmist opinion they could get away with."
## [2716] "But if all we allow ourselves is just over a century of global temperature measurements, we cannot from the same sample decide how the climate typically behaves over a century and also decide it is behaving abnormally."
## [2717] "35 errors or gross exaggerations are found in Al Gores Oscar winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth."
## [2718] "JC comment: I first became aware of the problem two years ago, when Tim Palmer presented (at Fall AGU) a plot of absolute global temperatures simulated by the CMIP3 climate models for the 20th century. The impact of this on the model thermodynamics (notably the sea ice) is profound; model tuning then works around this problem, so that n wrongs make a right, almost certainly torquing feedbacks in unfortunate ways."
## [2719] "Postscript 2 ??? Ellen Mosley-Thompson has an interesting cameo appearance in the Climategate emails. She was the EOS editor who rushed through the Mann et al 2003 EOS article on Soon and Baliunas 2003. The article took about 10 days from being commissioned to being accepted. They giggled among themselves when Willie Soon inquired about the peer review process. The character assassination of this article has not been fully analysed. In one despicable email, Tom Wigley acknowledged that Soon and Baliunas might have a point that 20th century precipitation was not unusual (a theme revisited in AR5 Zero and First Draft), writing to Mann and others (2003-06-06 682.):"
## [2720] "Get that? Climate forecasts are warming substantially faster than the actual atmosphere. This is a significant problem for modeling."
## [2721] "Despite the inability of climate models to accurately represent global climate, this hasn't stopped scientists from using these same models to make precise predictions about the ostensible effects of human-induced climate change on relatively small regions of the Earth, such as California. For example, the Union of Concerned Scientists states without qualification \"rising temperatures, possibly exacerbated by declining winter precipitation, will severely reduce snowpack in the Sierra Nevada\" causing a substantial reduction in California's water supplies."
## [2722] "Global warming, is and has always been, a propaganda campaign with a thin veneer of science. As the evidence against the scam built up year upon year as mother earth steadfastly refused to warm as instructed, it was inevitable the scam would fall apart. This year, when I heard Greenland was refreezing I finally realised that there was not a shred of evidence to support the scam and so it will inevitably die."
## [2723] "Which begs other, rather important questions. Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years? Experts I have spoken to tell me that this certainly is possible with such computer models. And if this is the case, what are the implications for the Hadley centres predictions for future global temperatures? Could they be affected by such a warm bias? If global temperatures were to fall in years to come would the computer model be capable of forecasting this???? Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, 9 January 2010"
## [2724] "The intolerance, of course, stems from the realization on the part of those behind the ?global warming? scam that it is entirely false. It is always liars who have to shout loudest in the hope of temporarily prevailing over the truth."
## [2725] "There is a perception that the climate change story selects record breaking events to suit its argument and ignores the cold extremes."
## [2726] "G lobal warming alarmists nevertheless claim that nearly all climate scientists believe dangerous global warming will occur. This is a strange claim in view of the fact more than 30,000 American scientists signed the Oregon Petition stating that there is no basis for dangerous man-made global warming forecasts, and no convincing evidence that carbon dioxide is dangerously warming the planet or disrupting its climate."
## [2727] "However, despite being asked to consider the difference between a flat Earth and a round Earth both of these men have told me in personal correspondence that they simply want to choose to believe that carbon dioxide has some forcing via the greenhouse effect, to quote. They said they WANT this."
## [2728] "Even the IPCC admits in the fine print that the models dont work. Water vapor in the tropics is the most important feedback, yet the models get it wrong. See Chapter Nine Evaluation of Climate Models:"
## [2729] "The emails also describe how the band plotted to rewrite history as well as science, particularly by eliminating the Medieval Warm Period, a 400 year period that began around 1000 AD."
## [2730] "Newsweek s 1975 cover story The Cooling World breathlessly reported that, after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth??s climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists are almost unanimous that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century, it intoned, and the resulting famines could be catastrophic."
## [2731] "So the newcomers to global warming would see that the climate models perform pretty poorly at simulating past global warming. The global temperature anomaly in 2005 from one model is about 1.17 deg C higher than that of another. In other words, theres a 1.17 deg C spread in the change in simulated global surface temperatures from pre-industrial times to 2005, which is greater than the 1.0 deg C observed rise shown in Kevin Cowtans graph (my Figure 1)."
## [2732] "Take, for example, his attempts to dismiss two of the many recent scandals to have befallen the seemingly accident-prone climate-science establishment:"
## [2733] "The results of their analysis suggest, as Sears et al . describe it, that well-known relationships in biophysical ecology show that \"no two organisms experience the same climate in the same way,\" and that \"changing climates do not always impact organisms negatively.\" Hence, they conclude that \"when coupled with thermoregulatory behavior, variation in topographic features can mask the acute effect of climate change in many cases,\" which renders the climate envelope approach to assessing species responses to climate change rather useless, if not even deceptive. Reference"
## [2734] "Defenders are making ludicrous and contradictory claims to explain what is happening. They said they were 90+ percent certain warming since 1950 was due to human CO2 with natural causes of little or no consequence. Now theyre saying the lack of warming of the last 17 years is because of natural variability and decreasing solar activity."
## [2735] "To this list, SEPP would add that the IPCC and its parent organization, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have failed make it explicitly clear in every publication that their mission is not to understand all the influences on climate change, but purely the human one, thus ignoring major natural influences on climate change."
## [2736] "In my opinion, it is wishful thinking to think that sufficiently sophisticated reverse engineering could have identified the low replication of the Briffa data set. I don??t rely on this point. Maybe someone can demonstrate that reverse engineering was possible in the case at hand and that, with a little more insight and better reverse engineering, I (and others) could have figured out the poor Briffa replication. If so, so be it. Without the actual Briffa data set, I wasn??t able to figure out that Briffa had used the Hantemirov corridor data set for RCS standardization. Nor was anyone else, including any of the authors who used the poorly replicated Briffa data in important multiproxy reconstructions apparently without inquiring into its replication."
## [2737] "The third robbery involves Summary claims that computer models are scientifically sound. Media focus on temperature projections invariably putting the highest increase in the headlines. These projections are predetermined, and always wrong. The Science Report explains why they cannot be correct. Here are 17 quotes from Chapter 8 of the 2007 Science Report."
## [2738] "There are other problems with the ice core record. It takes years for air to be trapped in the ice, so what is actually trapped and measured? Meltwater moving through the ice especially when the ice is close to the surface can contaminate the bubble. Bacteria form in the ice, releasing gases even in 500,000-year-old ice at considerable depth. ( Detection, Recovery, Isolation and Characterization of Bacteria in Glacial Ice and Lake Vostok Accretion Ice. Brent C. Christner, 2002 Dissertation. Ohio State University) . Pressure of overlying ice, causes a change below 50m and brittle ice becomes plastic and begins to flow. The layers formed with each year of snowfall gradually disappear with increasing compression. It requires a considerable depth of ice over a long period to obtain a single reading at depth. Jaworowski identified the problems with contamination and losses during drilling and core recovery process."
## [2739] "It is interesting, however, that those who seek an arrest and conviction for criminal negligence, or voluntary manslaughter, want the crime to be charged before the victims are dead. The usual cry from the alarmists uses the future tense, as polar ice caps WILL melt, and sea levels WILL rise. Or, more often, the conditional form is used, saying sea levels COULD rise by 20 feet in 100 years."
## [2740] "it is not known with enough certainty what the impacts will be and urgent action by governments and/or substantial government spending (on all or some aspects of mitigation or adaptation) to counter AGW is not necessary."
## [2741] "And since there is no fingerprint of human- versus natural-caused warming, we might never know the answer to this central question. We might have to just sit back and watch where global temperature go from now on."
## [2742] "Coming to a conclusion that simply could not be avoided, Barkhordarian et al . state that \"the detection of an outright sign mismatch of observed and projected trends in autumn and late summer, leads us to conclude that the recently observed trends cannot be used as an illustration of plausible future expected change in the Mediterranean region,\" once again illustrating the folly of placing too much faith in even the best of climate model projections."
## [2743] "Follow the money pushing the ideological AGW lie. If one examines climate science funding from 1986 to 1996 and then from 1996 to the present you may find some amazing numbers."
## [2744] "The next graph shows how they made the past cooler through the magic of homogenization. The 1940s retroactively dropped a full degree!"
## [2745] "This is not a new problem. The unilateral redrafting of IPCC reports by \"lead authors\" after reviewers had agreed them, and the writing of a sexed-up \"summary for policy makers\" before the report was complete, have discomfited many scientists since the first report. It is no great surprise that the \"experts\" who compiled one part of the 2007 report included three from Greenpeace, two Friends of the Earth representatives, two Climate Action Network representatives, and a person each from the activist organisations WWF, Environmental Defense Fund, and the David Suzuki Foundation."
## [2746] "Whats so good about it? Well, for once everybody should join in the celebration of a climate model that is presented for what it is (a policymaking tool for negotiators to assess their national greenhouse-gas commitments ahead of Decembers climate summit in Copenhagen ) rather than for what it is not (a scientific tool used for a variety of purposes from study of the dynamics of the climate system to projections of future climate , as rather naively claimed on Wikipedia)."
## [2747] "I'm not sure whether this is a particularly productive discussion as regards the climate debate. If a computer simulation is to be policy-relevant its output must be capable of being an approximation to the real world, and must be validated to show that this is the case. If climate modellers want to make the case that their virtual worlds are neither hypothesis nor experiment, or to use them to address otherwise intractable questions, as Schmidt and Sherwood note happens, then that's fine so long as climate models remain firmly under lock and key in the ivory tower."
## [2748] "But three years later Pachauri was mired in controversy when errors were found in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report."
## [2749] "This figure shows that, per the IPCC, in the absence of climate change, GDP per capita would grow between 11- and 67-fold for developing countries, and between 3- and 8-fold for industrialized countries."
## [2750] "But, as we already know , Katharine is not really a proper climate scientist."
## [2751] "Accountability can be hard, global warming muppet Jim Hansen??s predictions from 20 years ago are not even close to observations in today??s climate. Why are we listening to Doctor ???death trains??, exactly?"
## [2752] "The study also says that an overestimate of the power of CO2 as a greenhouse gas could be why the models over-predict, but that they do not know why the models are wrong at this point."
## [2753] "A new paper published in Biogeosciences finds groundwater and porewater are \"major sources\" of alkalinity to reefs which are not taken into account by computer models of ocean 'acidification'. The authors \" suggest that porewater and groundwater fluxes of TA should be taken into account in ocean acidification models in order to properly address changing carbonate chemistry within coral reef ecosystems.\" Note also that studies in the laboratory of the effect of 'acidification' upon various organisms also fail to consider this moderating \"major source\" of alkalinity."
## [2754] "This post will serve as the model-data comparison for satellite-era sea surface temperature anomalies for this year. This is an expanded version. It provides a couple of answers for why the models perform so poorly when attempting to simulate the surface temperatures of the global oceans."
## [2755] "The assaults on Monckton and other high-visibility skeptics (for example, Marc Morano of Climate Depot, Joe D'Aleo of ICECAP, Dr. Willie Soon, Dr. Fred Singer, Anthony Watts and Dr. Ferenc Miskolczi) are further evidence that the global warmists are in full retreat and resorting to slash and burn tactics as they make a desperate last stand to defend their cherished theory from the onslaught of countervailing scientific evidence."
## [2756] "Make sure that the researchers are actual, qualified professionals. You would think you could take this for granted in a study published in a peer-reviewed journal, but sadly this is simply not the case when it comes to climate consensus research. Theyll publish anything with high estimates."
## [2757] "This has always struck me as an incredibly lame argument, as it implies that the models are an accurate representation of nature, which they likely are not. We know that significant natural effects, such as the PDO and AMO are not well modelled or even considered at all in these models."
## [2758] "Also consider the Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making International Journal of Forecasting 25 (2009) 826832by the same authors with astrophysicist Willie Soon. They found that errors in the projections of the IPCCs scenario of exponential CO2 growth for the years 1851 to 1975 were more than seven times greater than the errors from a no change from previous year extrapolation method:"
## [2759] "One also has to question sea level rise due to thermal expansion. Ocean heat content does not seem to be rising. As far as measuring sea level rise, it is an extremely complex affair that is fraught with vast uncertainty. Id also be very suspicious of anyone claiming they can measure sea levels to the millimetre. Its hard enough to do it in inches. Thats why sea level projections among experts range so widely. Of course, that allows a lot of flexibility when drawing conclusions."
## [2760] "Observations of upper tropospheric water vapor over the last 3-4 decades from the National Centers of Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data show that upper tropospheric water vapor appears to undergo a small decrease while Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) undergoes a small increase. This is the opposite of what has been programmed into the GCMs due to water vapor feedback."
## [2761] "Read here and here . Left/liberal/progressive/Democrat oriented groups just can't leave the proven scientific process and methodologies alone. They literally have to \"buy\" their \"science\" by financially contributing to scientists who will then likely perform the left's advocacy work as \"independent\" scientists, gratis. The Pew Environmental Group is one of the Big Green organizations that lays out the dollars on PhDs to hopefully enhance the desired activist \"science\" outcome."
## [2762] "Floods are occurring in the western and southern Cape as I write this email. This is the region that FIFTEEN scientists predicted would become warmer and drier as a result of global warming, (Midgley et al 2005)."
## [2763] "Note: You may be thinking that there might actually be a physical explanation for the monstrously excessive response of the HADMAT2-ERSST.v4 difference to the solar cycle data. Keep in mind, though, that the response to volcanic aerosols is solar relatedinasmuch as the volcanic aerosols limit the amount of solar radiation reaching the surface of the oceans. You can argue all you want about whatever it is you want to argue about, but unless you can support those claims with data-based analysis or studies, all youre providing is conjecture. We get enough model-based conjecture from the climate science communitywe dont need any more."
## [2764] "Many coupled general circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere tend to underpredict the presence of subtropical marine stratocumulus clouds and fail to predict the seasonal cycle of such clouds. These deficiencies are important because marine stratocumulus clouds have a major impact on sea surface temperatures below them; and they thereby impact many subsidiary phenomena with far-reaching climatic consequences. What was done"
## [2765] "Like Penny Wong before him, Minister Combet has been captured by the self-seeking, alarmist global warming rhetoric of the United Nations IPCC and its supporters. Surely the Government should conduct an inquiry before acting on such impaired advice, yet the advice stands unaudited? There are no checks and balances, and no formal oversight. To commit our nation to deliberate economic hardship, and that of a regressive nature, without even seeking a second opinion would in any other circumstances be considered both foolish and unacceptable (remember Tirath Khemlani, and the bypassing of the Loans Council?)."
## [2766] "Lohmann et al plotted the geologically reconstructed temperatures and compared them to modeled temperature curves from the ECHO-G Model. What did they find? The modeled trends underestimated the geologically reconstructed temperature trend by a factor of two to five. Other scientists have come up with similar results (e.g. Lorenz et al. 2006, Brewer et al. 2007, Schneider et al. 2010)."
## [2767] "This question about whether or not the IPCC model predictions(as represented by the GISS models) are still consistent even withthe largeLoeb et alestimate should have been a majorpart of their article.The Loeb et al 2012 even cited the Hansen paper but did not take the next step and complete model and observational comparisons. That the IPCC models are close to being refuted with respect to the magnitude of global warmingeven with the large Loeb et al values is an unspoken result of their findings. They missed a major implication from their results."
## [2768] "None of the models used by IPCC are initialized to the observed state and none of the climate states in the models correspond even remotely to the current observed climate."
## [2769] "What the United States and Canada are experiencing right now is making global warming alarmists such as Al Gore look quite foolish. The following are 10 of Al Gores stupidest global warming quotes"
## [2770] "Oh, and those aren?t just failed forecasts?they are failed hindcasts. Even knowing the answer, the climate modelers can?t explain why the Earth hasn?t warmed as fast as it was supposed to."
## [2771] "Whilst its a tad galling hearing the Copernicus denying church issuing a fatwa against global warming, its perhaps a sign that the end is really nigh for this scam. This is how the Gaurdian reported this Santa Claus (or rearranged Satans clau present from the Vatican)"
## [2772] "Though it has its limits, the peer-review process is meant to provide checks and balances, to weed out bad and misleading work, and to bring some measure of objectivity to scientific research. At its best, it can do that. But when the same few people review and approve each other's work, you invariably get conflicts of interest. This weakens the case for the supposed consensus, and becomes, instead, another reason to be suspicious. Nerds who follow the climate debate blogosphere have known for years about the cliquish nature of publishing and peer review in climate science (see here, for example)."
## [2773] "What this graph shows is very simple, but also very powerful: The radiative variations CERES measures look nothing like what the radiative feedback should look like. You can put in any feedback parameter you want (the IPCC models range from 0.91 to 1.87I think it could be more like 3 to 6 in the real climate system), and you will come to the same conclusion."
## [2774] "We continually hear such assertions as \"2014 was the planet's warmest year on record fourteen of the fifteen hottest years on record have all fallen in the first 15 years of this century.\" Perhaps surprisingly, such factoids are far less informative than many seem to assume. The recent year-to-year differences are almost never statistically significant. More important, the \"hottest year\" rhetoric is based on the surface temperature record, a collection of data that is deeply problematic, with heat-island effects difficult to expunge from the data, poor placement and shifts in the measurement stations, etc. An example: For over a century, \"China\" was 137 monitoring stations in four cities, and as those cities grew, \"China\" warmed. Surprise!"
## [2775] "Ben Pile is spot on. The 97% consensus article is poorly conceived, poorly designed and poorly executed. It obscures the complexities of the climate issue and it is a sign of the desperately poor level of public and policy debate in this country that the energy minister should cite it."
## [2776] "In the 27 November 2009 issue of Science, Michael Mann and eight coauthors (Mann et al., 2009) describe how they used a global climate proxy network consisting of data derived from ice core, coral, sediment, and various other records to reconstruct a Northern Hemispheric surface air temperature history covering the past 1,500 years for the purpose of determining the characteristics of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period. They used Manns Nature trick of Climategate fame, truncating the reconstructed temperature history near its end and replacing it with modern-day instrumental data, so the last part of the record cannot be validly compared with the earlier portion."
## [2777] "Since the 1D models are the type used in the parameterization of the stable boundary layer in multi-decadal climate model projections, this is yet another reason to question their use as accurate predictive models, including their use to forecast the long term trends in near surface air temperature over land and sea ice."
## [2778] "Christopher Booker discusses the implications in: Climategate, the sequel: How we are STILL being tricked with flawed data on global warming ."
## [2779] "Contamination by urbanization, changes in land use, improper station sitting, and inadequately-calibrated instrument upgrades further overstate warming."
## [2780] "feels no need to look under the hood- and discourages its expert reviewers from doing so."
## [2781] "In the charts below, I have given climate alarmists every break. I have used the most drastic CO2 forecast (A2) from the IPCC fourth assessment, and run the numbers for a peak concentration around 800ppm. I have used the IPCCs own formula for the effect of CO2 on temperatures without feedback (Temperature Increase = F(C2) F(C1) where F(c)=Ln (1+1.2c+0.005c^2 +0.0000014c^3) and c is the concentration in ppm). Note that skeptics believe that both the 800ppm assumption and the IPCC formula above overstate warming and CO2 buildup, but as you will see, it is not going to matter."
## [2782] "How valid is the 2014 claim? In the 10,000 ??? year context, it is significant because it is among the 3 percent coldest years, which is far more significant than the 100-year warm alarmists proclaim. There are two major reasons: Highest readings occur in the most recent years of a rising temperature record. Every alteration, adjustment amendment and abridgment of the record so far, was done to create and emphasize increasingly higher temperatures."
## [2783] "Climate models failings with respect to ENSOtheir failures to properly simulate of El Nio- and La Nia-related processeshave been known for years. See Guilyardi et al. (2009) and Bellenger et al (2012) . It is very difficult to find a portionany portionof El Nio and La Nia processes that the models simulate properly."
## [2784] "So, if a record high temperature is reported on any given day in Las Vegas, it will likely be for these unadjusted, UHI-influenced temperatures?? not from NCDC-adjusted USHCN temperatures (which don??t include these stations anyway)."
## [2785] "Climate Conspiracy Written by Peter Wood and Ashley Thorne"
## [2786] "LIA = Little Ice Age, MCA = Medieval Warm Period. Note top graph appears to be based upon one of Mann's bogus temperature reconstructions. Remaining graphs show SST reconstructions along southern coast of Chile."
## [2787] "CCD Editor's Note: It's shameful how Gore utilizes hate speech and misinformation to further his own agenda. Note all the inconsistencies in his speech. From Tech Times :"
## [2788] "The difference between this forecast and the IPCCs, is that this forecast is based on actual data."
## [2789] "Figures 23 and 24 are model-data comparisons of land surface air temperature anomalies from November 1981 to December 2013. Again, were using the multi-model ensemble mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive. And for the data, theyre the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (land surface air temperature) anomalies. Both are referenced to the period of 1961-1990 for anomalies. The models perform very well at simulating the warming rate of the land surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere (Figure 23), but overestimate the warming of land surface air temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere by a wide margin (Figure 24)."
## [2790] "I will submit several statements that indicate that the IPCC was wrong in its approach, in its entire methodology in trying to determine whether or not global warming, whether there is global warming and whether or not it is caused by man-made activity."
## [2791] "Executives at a Bermudan firm funneling money to U.S. environmentalists run investment funds with Russian tycoons"
## [2792] "They include or have included the National Hydrogen Association, Fuel Cells Canada, hydrogen producer QuestAir, Naikun Wind Energy and Ballard Fuel Cells. Mr. Hoggan apparently benefits from regulatory policy against CO2."
## [2793] "The latest bid in the climate Dutch Auction comes from a paper published in Nature. According to authors Markus Huber & Reto Knutti, if you dial down transient climate response to 1.8c / doubling of CO2, and conceded around 0.15c to a combination of bad luck (lack of El Nino events) and the drop in solar activity, and squint really hard, you can just about fit the data to the models."
## [2794] "TF: You are omitting the key detailI wrote that they could not provide temperature predictions on a decadal level. Which they cannot. The chosen period for total temperature change is usually 50 years or more."
## [2795] "The third point is that the sole support for predictions of dangerous warming are climate modelsbut they are faulty . We know this because observations over the last 20 years or so show the observed temperatures becoming increasingly cooler than the model predictions. This is easily verified. Let me repeat: the climate models are proved to be wrong."
## [2796] "The story seems to be that the land is rising, increasing the carrying capacity of the oceans. This would effectively reduce the amount of sea level rise expected, and we couldn't have that - hence the \"adjustment\". The effect of the adjustment appears to be small when put against the projected rises, but is certainly material against the actual changes recorded (although these are, per Morner, wrong)."
## [2797] "4) Climate Models Can??t Even Hindcast How did climate modelers, who already knew the answer, still fail to explain the lack of a significant temperature rise over the last 30+ years? In other words, how to you botch a hindcast?"
## [2798] "A team of Climate Audit regulars have finally had their paper refuting Steig et al's headline grabbing Antarctic temperature record accepted by Journal of Climate. The big story is not that Steig has been dumped but that the team are still moving heaven and earth to keep critical papers out of the literature."
## [2799] "Since climate scientists carefully calibrate the models to simulate the actual number of clay particles in the atmosphere, the paper suggests that models most likely err when it comes to the number of silt particles. Most of these larger particles swirl in the atmosphere within about 1,000 miles of desert regions, so adjusting their quantity in computer models should generate better projections of future climate in desert regions, such as the southwestern United States and northern Africa."
## [2800] "The mainstream media loves Democrat lies , especially if the lies support their beloved climate change hoax agenda. The growing Fakegate climate science scandal is an example of such."
## [2801] "What we get instead is sophistry. In AIT, the only facts and studies considered are those convenient to Gore's scare-them-green agendaand in many instances, Gore distorts the evidence he presents."
## [2802] "My ostracism from the IPCC advocacy tribe has been noted by other scientists that are quietly sympathetic to my position. As an example, several years ago at a conference, one of the speakers was quite critical of one piece of the conventional IPCC wisdom, but prefaced the talk with the statement something like this: While my talk contains some evidence that challenges some of the findings of the IPCC, I want to state up front that I support the IPCC consensus on climate change. After the talk, I asked this scientist why he felt the need to preface his talk with a statement of IPCC allegiance, when his research was rather devastating to part of the IPCCs argument. He stated I dont want to have to put up with what you have had to, so I make it very clear that I support the IPCC consensus."
## [2803] "And our climate models did not forecast it, even though man-made carbon dioxide, the gas thought to be responsible for warming our planet, has continued to rise."
## [2804] "But the models accomplish it incorrectly. They underestimate the warming of the North Atlantic (Figure 13) by a little,but overestimate the warming of sea surface temperatures in the South Atlantic (Figure 14) by a huge margin."
## [2805] "The outrage by the promoters of global warming and their allies in journalism was predictable. They immediately denounced Heartland and all those associated with it. The hypocrisy is typical. Many of the global warming promoters use similar tactics: logical fallacies that are effective, but for which they are not criticized. They accuse skeptics as being anti-science when skeptics point out that the physical science does not support the assertions and conclusions in the Summary for Policymakers of the Fourth Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). They label skeptics as deniers, implying they are Holocaust deniers. These promoters claim that skeptics are shills for the tobacco industry, the oil industry, etc. In short, they try to eliminate any possibility of public, rational discourse on the scientific issues."
## [2806] "The fact that there was dissent within the climate science teams, that some people objected to the very basis of the grand claims of global warming, did not come out through the due process. It came to light when emails at the Climate Research Centre at East Anglia were hacked in November 2009. It is from the hacked conversations that a pattern of conspiracy and deceit emerge. It is a peek into the world of global warming scaremongeringamplify the impact of CO2, stick to dramatic timelines on destruction of forests, and never ask for a referral or raise a contrary point. You were either a believer in a hotter world or not welcome in this \"scientific fold'."
## [2807] "The crisis was global cooling, until Earth stopped cooling around 1976. It was global warming, until our planet stopped warming around 1995. The alarmist mantra then became climate change or climate disruption or extreme weather. Always manmade. Since Earths climate often fluctuates, and there are always weather extremes, such claims can never be disproven, certainly not to the alarmists satisfaction."
## [2808] "Perez-Sanz et al . report that \"the CMIP5 models fail to reproduce key aspects of both the modern and mid-Holocene climate of the northern Africa and Mediterranean region, including the correct geographical location of zonal precipitation regimes in the pre-industrial simulation and the magnitude of mid-Holocene changes in these regimes.\" More specifically, they say that most models \"overestimate the extent of monsoon influence and underestimate the extent of desert.\" And they state that they also \"fail to reproduce the amount of precipitation in each zone,\" while noting that \"most models underestimate the mid-Holocene changes in annual precipitation.\""
## [2809] "Trenberth also said that some long-range climate models also fail to adequately simulate other natural climate patterns that influence El Nino let alone how they might also shift in a warming world."
## [2810] "Does the Uptick in Global Surface Temperatures in 2014 Help the Growing Difference between Climate Models and Reality?"
## [2811] "Based on the limited Global Ice and Snow measurements available, and noting the questionable value of Sea Ice Area and Extent as a proxy for temperature, not much inference can currently be drawn from Earth??s Ice and Snow measurements. However, there does appear to be a pause in Global Sea Ice Area."
## [2812] "The second warming shift began in 1975 and rose at quite a constant rate until 1998, a strong Pacific Ocean El Nio yearalthough this later warming is reported only by surface thermometers, not satellites, and is legitimately disputed by some. (Theres some background on this in my June 18 column .)"
## [2813] "Prediction That Global Warming Causes More Storms Fails Empirical Testing IPCC Climate Models Wrong"
## [2814] "Also last week, TWTW linked to Steve McIntyres simple model of temperatures, which out performs the global climate models in temperature forecasts. Christopher Essex correctly noted that the global climate models can be scientifically useful because they include a number of other variables. As always, TWTW appreciates such amplifications and corrections."
## [2815] "The climate alarmists, says Carlin, have now been making their apocalyptic predictions for almost thirty years and it is now possible to compare their predictions with actual physical observations. Suffice to say all the predictions of a significantly higher temperaturethe warminghave been wrong.??"
## [2816] "As for Gore and the U.N.'s scientific claims, it has been quite a joy to watch the entire man-made global warming fear movement disintegrate before our eyes. A movement that had the divisive Gore as its face was bound to fail. A movement that utilized the scandal-ridden U.N. which is massively distrusted by the American people as the repository of science was doomed to fail. Gore is now reduced to pointing to every storm, flood, hurricane or tornado as proof of man-made global warming."
## [2817] "The statement that Nature doesn't give a damn about the random distribution of some papers written by a particular group of humans should be obvious and understandable. But I want to make one more related point. Even if the LHC found and confirmed one of the new sub-TeV models physics, it wouldn't mean that Nature would join the hep-ph consensus. Why? Because there's simply no consensus among the models on the hep-ph arXiv to start with. The models are inequivalent so they disagree with each other."
## [2818] "In spite of the huge increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere the predicted temperature rise did not materialize so we need to ask what is wrong with Climate Science given that it claimed that the Consensus is supported by 97% of scientists and The Debate is Over. In my opinion the debate is indeed over because the cause of CAGW (Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming) is dead and buried. What we need now is a better understanding of the effects of rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere given that the Consensus theory failed so dismally."
## [2819] "The British Met Office owns Britains most powerful super computer. It can make 1,000 billion calculations every second while consuming more electricity than a small town. The Met claimed that it will enable the Met Office to deliver more accurate forecasts, from hours to a century ahead. Some 400 climate high priests attend this electronic monster. But it has totally failed to forecast several frigid European winters because the model makers believe their own story and have programmed the models with a global warming bias. They assume without proof or evidence that carbon dioxide controls global temperature."
## [2820] "After looking at the data, Ms Ameling might consider Rahmstorf as simply not a serious person who is irresponsiblyinserting fear into vulnerable young minds and doing a disservice to his country."
## [2821] "You would think there would be ONE historical set of original RAW data, but no not found it yet there looks to be many copies, all with slightly different processing, mixes, histories, updates, quality assurance, etc"
## [2822] "The founder of the Weather Channel is ridiculing Al Gore over his calls for action on global climate change, saying in a column that global warming is a hoax and bad science."
## [2823] "Lewis argues that the main flaw in the Marotzke and Forster research concerns the use of an equation describing energy balance in the climate system that links the so called radiative forcing acting to warm the climate with the sensitivity of the climate to changes in greenhouse gas levels. This equation is central to the logic used by Marotzke and Forster."
## [2824] "Nothing new in my talk; I focused on the data, why scientists disagree, and emphasized that there was a lot of disagreement inside of the so-called 97%."
## [2825] "I??m going to give him two answers. A little later I will post a???taking Keating seriously part 2?? that recounts a few of the prima facie ways that the IPCC??s radical attribution claims are highly unscientific, as pointed out by numerous people in recent years. Then early next week I will post part 3, detailing a train of specific unscientific and anti-scientific steps in the IPCC analysis that render it not just scientifically invalid but properly classify it as a hoax and a fraud."
## [2826] "Al Gore is in full attack model, employing his ridiculous Climate Reality Project to Draw the Line on Denial, even as he laid off 90% of the staff at his Alliance for Climate Protection. Greenpeace has joined the fray, launching a Dealing in Doubt campaign that blames ExxonMobil for funding the global warming denial machine."
## [2827] "It is long overdue that the IPCC was called for what it is, an activist eco-political body driven not by the dangerous manmade warming evidence that it pretends exists, but by the beliefs and philosophies of its sponsor, the UNEP, and by key individuals at the time the IPCC was established."
## [2828] "Jeremy Grantham is the wildly successful investor who writes entertaining quarterly letters to his fellow \"die-hard contrarians.\" Grantham struck it rich investing against herd mentality and his missives usually sparkle with insights. I've been a fan for a long time. But there is one issue on which Grantham has jettisoned his contrarian impulses: global warming. He has joined the fashionable crowd of alarmists and doom-and-gloomers."
## [2829] "There is one more technical detail about the graphs above that you should notice. The observed temperatures differ from a structureless linear increasing function in one most visible way, namely by the cooling period after 1940 or so. In order to describe this feature of the graph, the anthropocentric believers attribute the cooling to aerosols. However, these aerosols only cool the land because they don't spread globally. Indeed, you can see that the middle graph - global land - has a rather good agreement between the black line and the pink strip. However, if you look at the right graph, you see that the cooling after 1940 affected oceans, too - and the pink strip is clearly unable to reproduce the peak around 1940."
## [2830] "I can see why Gore is bitter. His comparatively modest investments in green energy promised to make him a global warming billionaire if cap-and-trade were enacted. Unluckily for him, the American people have said no emphatically."
## [2831] "Those are curious statements. Trenberth has never taken the time to explain that we would NOT expect the surface temperatures to go back down again. So his ???never go back to that previous level again?? seems to be a clear case of misdirection."
## [2832] "The other paper by MM is just garbage ??? as you knew. De Freitas again. Pielke is also losing all credibility as well by replying to the mad Finn as well ??? frequently as I see it. I can??t see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report. Kevin and I will keep them out somehow ??? even if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is !"
## [2833] "On the way out, I asked Professor Sugden whether there had ever been a climate-skeptical speaker at a Royal Society event. He said there had been several interjections by skeptics over the years. I pressed him, asking whether the Society had ever invited a skeptic to speak from the podium. No, he said."
## [2834] "Steig says that surface temperatures are reliable, yet GISS has massively altered them over the past decade. In fact, GISShas nearly doubled reported 1880 to 2000 warming since their 2003 version. They have altered the data so much, they had to stretch the scale at both ends to fit their alterationson to the graph. This is not reliable data."
## [2835] "New theories on rainfall suggest that the models dont even have the basics right. We used to think that forests grow where the rain falls, but research now suggests that rain falls where forests grow."
## [2836] "Global Warming Alarmist Science: Read How Actual Temperature Readings Are \"Adjusted\" - Fraud Potential Is Extremely High"
## [2837] "Regarding the impact of the IAC review of the IPCC: Pachauri lingers, the flagging rule has vanished, and real action on conflict-of-interest has been pushed well into the future. theres just one problem. While the IAC report said it should contain three independent voices, including people from outside the climate community, the IPCC thumbed its nose at that advice . . . instead gave four of its fulltime staff members seats at the table."
## [2838] "And yet, with no empirical evidence whatsoever we have so-called scientists persuading the general public that a minute molecule in the atmosphere is causing runaway global warming!"
## [2839] "But I for one am not complaining that Pachauri is staying on as I have said before, every day he remains in charge subtracts credibility from the IPCC, and that can only be a good thing. The recent meeting in Busan has deferred a number of key issues for later discussion:"
## [2840] "Why didnt they use the complete record, which ran (then) from 1957 through 1995? When they did, all correspondence between the models and reality disappeared. It just happened that 1963 was very cold, thanks to a blow-up of the big volcano Agung, and 1987 was warm thanks to El Nino, and the overall record showed no change at all."
## [2841] "In their attempts to disguise the fact that 2012 will likely turn out to be one of the colder years this century, NOAA have made the ludicrous, and frankly dishonest, claim that this year will be the hottest La Nia year on record."
## [2842] "While this is obviously satire it was presented in parallel with other information that was considered by Mr. Cook to be scientific. I found this juxtaposition very odd, since it essentially disagreed with Cook??s own position on the public viewpoint percentages as well as trivializing and debasing the debate."
## [2843] "But the alarmists say the exact opposite, that the climate system amplifies any warming due to extra carbon dioxide, and is potentially unstable. It is no surprise that their predictions of planetary temperature made in 1988 to the U.S. Congress, and again in 1990, 1995, and 2001, have all proved much higher than reality."
## [2844] "It might just be too difficult to do with any dependable and/or useful degree of accuracy, as the authors of this paper write their findings ???imply that the response of the tropical Pacific to future forcings may be even more uncertain than portrayed by state-of-the-art models because there are potentially important sources of century-scale variability that these models do not simulate.?? Such uncertainties must be adequately addressed before model projections can be taken seriously?? Read More"
## [2845] "Their definition of climate misinformation was contingent upon the post-modernist assumptions that scientific truth is discernible by measuring a consensus among experts, and that a near unanimous consensus exists. However, inspection of a claim by Cook et al. (Environ Res Lett 8:024024, 2013) of 97.1 % consensus, heavily relied upon by Bedford and Cook, shows just 0.3 % endorsement of the standard definition of consensus: that most warming since 1950 is anthropogenic."
## [2846] "On this point at least ??? the need for Lewandowsky to address issues of ???Lying/deceiving/incompetence?? ??? even Lewandowsky??s coauthors and critics appear to have found common ground."
## [2847] "9. The isotope ratio difference between natural carbon dioxide and carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels is small and not a reliable indication of the source of an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (see Spencer Part2: More CO2 Peculiarities The C13/C12 Isotope Ratio , Watts Up With That? January 28, 2008)"
## [2848] "As a result of Hansens spectacular failures, his confidence levels and temperature forecasts have greatly increased."
## [2849] "And last for the discussion of multidecadal variations in surface temperatures, refer to the blog post Will their Failure to Properly Simulate Multidecadal Variations In Surface Temperatures Be the Downfall of the IPCC?"
## [2850] "In other words, it's not Rex Murphy who is misleading the public with ideology and false information. It's the alarmist climatologists like Pederson who are misleading the public with their smokescreen of \"certainty\" and \"consensus\" and \"global warming\" that not only hasn't occurred in more than a decade, but wasn't \"statistically significant\" before that."
## [2851] "Evidence? However useful computer models may be, the one thing they cannot be is evidence. Computer climate models are simply conjectures, expressed in the form of mathematical equations (the language of computers), which lead to forecasts of future global temperatures, which can then be compared with the evidence on the ground."
## [2852] "Antarctic Ice Cores: The Sample Rate Problem"
## [2853] "The scientific community responded in a way that can only be described as disgraceful. In professional literature, it was complained he had no standing because he was not an earth scientist. His publisher, Cambridge University Press, was attacked with cries that the editor should be fired, and that all right-thinking scientists should shun the press. The past president of the AAAS wondered aloud how Cambridge could have ever ???published a book that so clearly could never have passed peer review.?? (But of course, the manuscript did pass peer review by three earth scientists on both sides of the Atlantic, and all recommended publication.)"
## [2854] "The Skeptical Science kidz are up to their usual paid-propaganda tactics with a new post claiming that a much bigger graph is needed to show the0.09C global ocean warming over the past 55 years . Apparently, they think making a graph larger will create a bigger impact from the tiny hundredths-of-a-degree world ocean warming since 1957 , rather than adjusting the axis scale."
## [2855] "CEI has been involved in the global warming debate for many years. Despite President Clinton's assertion, there is no scientific consensus on global warming. Mr. Smith and CEI work to educate the American people about the truth about global warming."
## [2856] "Predictions of changes in other aspects of climate, such as precipitation and sea-level rise, are even more uncertain than the projections of global temperature."
## [2857] "With the help of this adjustment, they manage to get the rate of sea level rise, according to their figures, up from 2.8mm/yr to 3.1mm/yr, since 1993. So clearly this is not the small adjustment they claim, as it is more than 10% of the change!"
## [2858] "In summary, ENSO is a coupled ocean-atmosphere process and its effects on Global Surface Temperatures are not represented by an ENSO index. ENSO indices cannot account for the impacts of the warm water released by an El Nio event, returned to the West Pacific and redistributed from there. Therefore, any scientific papers that attempt to determine manmade global warming by removing the linear effects of ENSO with a scaled and lagged ENSO index and subtracting it from global surface temperatures are fatally flawed. Papers that make this error-filled, misleading effort include:"
## [2859] "In doing so, Gillett and colleagues concluded that the temperature rise over the course of the 21st century is probably going to be considerably less than their raw climate model projections suggest. In fact, they write in their paper titled Improved constraints on 21st-century warming derived using 160 years of temperature observations that:"
## [2860] "Climatologist Dr. Tim Ball accused NASAs Schmidt of climate deception: Schmidt knows, after all his years with participating in the creation and naming of the RealClimate.org web site, that it is all about the headline."
## [2861] "17. There is one final reason why Pachauri is a disaster as chairman of the IPCC. He, himself, has acknowledged that the process is rigged. Nevertheless, he continues to pretend otherwise."
## [2862] "I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) and from 1961 for Keith's to hide the decline."
## [2863] "Today, the clearest example of the risks arising from the scientific-technocratic elite is the global warming debate. Consider the career trajectory of one of the leading climate alarmists, Penn State climatologist Michael Mann, who was implicated in the 2009 \"ClimateGate\" scandal, when leaked emails from a British university showed some of the world's leading climatologists discussing how to manipulate data and suppress studies that contradicted their work. Far from being a rogue actor outside the scientific mainstream, Dr. Mann has served as principal or co-principal investigator on research projects funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy, the U.S. Agency for International Development, and the Office of Naval Research."
## [2864] "Contradictory evidence be damned, a team of Korean and American scientists are invoking the hypothesis of a ?polar vortex? to contort the reality of increasing polar ice and cooling temperatures into support for their preordained conclusion of increasing global warming. The reality is that the increasing ice is, ?Confounding climate change computer models which say it should be in decline.?"
## [2865] "This is a very limited amount of time to make sweeping statements about climate change causation, particularly given the still infant-levelknowledgeof climate science. As a result, since 1970, skeptics and alarmists have roughly equal periods of time where they can make their point about temperature causation (e.g. 20 years of rising CO2 and flat temperatures vs. 20 years of rising CO2 and rising temperatures)."
## [2866] "The models predict increased warming, equally, at both the North and South Poles. The measurements show that the two poles are completely different. The North Pole is warming the South Pole is cooling."
## [2867] "So you can imagine my surprise to see the infamous Hockey Stick graph appear in the 2001 IPCC Report, completely missing the MWP that I knew from multiple independent data sets, as well as the subsequent Little Ice Age that brought to an end the European occupation of Greenland. Later IPCC reports and subsequent media hype increased my discomfort with the concepts of Anthropogenic Global Warming and the insistence that presently observed climate change is driven primarily by human greenhouse gas emissions."
## [2868] "Climategate 3.0: \"Mr. FOIA\" says lying elitists are destroying civilization"
## [2869] "But this isnt new. Sadly, the networks bias on climate change has been happening for decades. Many publications now claiming the world is on the brink of a global warming disaster said the same thing about an impending ice age in the 1970s. Several major ones, including The New York Times, Time magazine, and Newsweek, have reported on three or even four different climate shifts since 1895. (2)"
## [2870] "I commented on Nurse on an earlier occasion, when Nurse had given a completely untrue account of the connection of FOI and Climategate:"
## [2871] "The very greatly exaggerated predictions (orange region) of atmospheric global warming in the IPCCs 1990 First Assessment Report, compared with the mean anomalies (dark blue) and trend (bright blue straight line) of three terrestrial and two satellite monthly global mean temperature datasets since 1990.The measured, real-world rate of global warming over the past 25 years, equivalent to less than 1.4 C per century, is about half the IPCCs central prediction in 1990."
## [2872] "So at the end of the first exchange, we have no explanation of why there was no assessment of the quality of CRU's science."
## [2873] "* Finally, many of the ongoing disputes in climate science boil down to disputes over the relative validity and reliability of different observational datasets, suggesting that the very new field of climate science does not yet have standardized observational datasets that would allow for definitive testing of theories and models against observations.\""
## [2874] "James Hansen of NASA is one of the leading climate alarmists, and possesses a scientific credibility lacking in the Goracle. But Hansen really has become a parody of himself, more activist than scientist. His supervisor at NASA was a skeptic. And as Bill Steigerwald of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review wrote a year ago:"
## [2875] "Finally, we should point out that a consensus can be manufacturedeven where no consensus exists. For example, it has become very popular to claim that 97% of all publications support AGW. Here the key question to ask is: Which publications and what exactly is the form of support?"
## [2876] "Understanding clouds is key to predicting climate change, because clouds can cool or warm the atmosphere depending on their structure and location. A recent study compared measurements of cloudiness with predictions of ten climate models. The study reported both large variations between modelsas large as a factor of four for predictions of some types of cloudsand large discrepancies between the models and the observations."
## [2877] "Basic problem is that all models are wrong ? not got enough middle and low"
## [2878] "Spencer calls Santer's actions obfuscation. I call it data-fitting and a failed attempt at that. Whatever it is, it violates the scientific method and scientific ethics that require researchers to use the best data available to confirm or disconfirm a hypothesis or theory."
## [2879] "Murari Lal, a climate expert who was one of the leading authors of the 2007 IPCC report, denied it had its facts wrong about melting Himalayan glaciers."
## [2880] "???These American heroes ??? the astronauts that took to space and the scientists and engineers that put them there ??? are simply stating their concern over NASA??s extreme advocacy for an unproven theory,?? said Leighton Steward. ???There??s a concern that if it turns out that CO 2 is not a major cause of climate change, NASA will have put the reputation of NASA, NASA??s current and former employees, and even the very reputation of science itself at risk of public ridicule and distrust.??"
## [2881] "- I think that CO 2 plays too large a role in current climate models, and that they are not nearly describe the natural climate variations in a good way."
## [2882] "5. Recent studies of ice mass loss at both Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets show that the wild-ass, speculative predictions of climate alarmist scientists and their climate/ice sheet models are galactically over-estimating the losses."
## [2883] "The news of Dr. Giaevers resignation comes on the heels of another blow to the notion of incontrovertible evidence this past July. A study published in the journal Remote Sensing (PDF) highlights several discrepancies in previously relied-upon data. From the Tuscon Citizen :"
## [2884] "Thanks to the revelations of the Climategate e-mails, we now have a more skeptical view about the process which is used to vet publications. We know now that peer-review, once considered by many as the gold-standard, can be manipulatedand in fact has been manipulated by a gang of UK and US climate scientists who have been very open about their aim to keep dissenting views from being published. We also know from the same e-mails that editors can be bullied by determined activists."
## [2885] "There is strong psychological evidence that alarmist fears of climate change are far more the result of groupthink and the group polarization process than scientific evidence and, yes, this alarmist groupthink has indeed led to the triumph of irrationality over reason."
## [2886] "All of the above is background to one of the great mysteries of the climate change issue. Virtually all the scientists directly involved in climate prediction are aware of the enormous problems and uncertainties still associated with their product. How then is it that those of them involved in the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (the IPCC) can put their hands on their hearts and maintain there is a 95% probability that human emissions of carbon dioxide have caused most of the global warming that has occurred over the last several decades?"
## [2887] "The models also did not predict the 18-19 year \"pause\" in global warming, thus are not valid to determine attribution to natural vs. anthropogenic causes"
## [2888] "Material for a reconstruction comes from several proxies, from innumerable places, several latitudes, of areas with continental climate and marine climate, and they are not all of equal quality. To puzzle this all together not only requires carefulness but also a truck cargo of statistical techniques to find real correlations and not only local coincidences. And then still in some periods of the reconstruction, the error margins in the results will be considerably large."
## [2889] "The changes to the UAH dataset can obviously be justified, while the changes to the NOAA data obviously cannot be."
## [2890] "The title summarizes the main point of this article that presents many examples suggesting that the temperature data from the weather stations have been repeatedly retroactively adjusted."
## [2891] "This is an odd contention given that we are now in a multi-year period (12 years and counting) period during which time the global warming has been preceding much more slowly than the climate-model mean projections of the expected rate of temperature rise. And, whats even worse (for the models anyway), is that the rate has now dipped near the lower bound of the 95% confidence range of model projections. If the slowdown continues much longer, it will be a clear indication that something is amiss with the temperature projectionsand thus with alarming claims that depend upon them."
## [2892] "We cannot make sane decisions on global warming if the \"experts' present us with evidence that is biased"
## [2893] "During snowy weeks, we are told that the snow is due to global warming. During non-snowyweeks we are told that skiing is doomed because of global warming is keeping it from snowing."
## [2894] "The climate models are programmed to predict warming. They are completely useless and yet the Met Office continues to stiff British taxpayers withpurchasesof faster GIGO hardware."
## [2895] "Steve McIntyre points out the wholesale deletion of over 50 of Tom Fuller??s comments at Lewandowsky??s blog today (after they had been in place for days) and made this comment:"
## [2896] "The IPCC Working Group II AR5 report has been released and what people are saying are undermined by what the report says. Six claims are debunked. From Oil Price, Latest IPCC Findings Undermine Climate Change Claims"
## [2897] "A PhD and a computer have, so far, been insufficient tools to provide useful predictions of the future of our climate system. The current state of climate science ??? or maybe I should say, how scientists have allowed the media and politicians to portray it ??? is a continuing source of embarrassment to some of us."
## [2898] "More importantly, climate models suffer from the limitations of current scientific understanding of the forces that determine weather patterns and climate change. Climate modelers cannot avoid making assumptions about the operation and effects of such key variables as water vapor, clouds, ocean-atmosphere interaction, solar cycles, ocean currents, and the natural carbon cycle. Those assumptions are fraught with uncertainties and may be little better than educated guesses. It is not surprising, therefore, that the models have been notoriously poor at replicating current and past climate. For example, the models that served as the scientific background for the 1992 Rio Treaty implied that the world should have warmed 1.5 C since the late 19th century. In fact, surface measurements indicate the world has warmed only 0.5 C. The models were off by a factor of three."
## [2899] "There was a time, not so long ago, when above-the-fold content at some blogs was vehemently criticizing the surface temperature record in terms that suggested our collective ability to measure surface temperature or detect 0.7C or warming was so poor that we could not be confident the annual average surface temperature in 1900 was cooler than that in 2000. Or, possibly claims at the above the fold were less drastic and merely suggested the surface temperature record had some fairly large, difficult to quantify upward bias."
## [2900] "1) Computer model output is not \"evidence\" of anything. Observations are evidence, never models. It's the scientific method, look it up."
## [2901] "That is the one thing that they are definitely going to succeed in doing here and they will announce that as a victory in itself, and they will be right because that is the one and only single aim of this entire global warming conference, to establish the mechanism, the structure, and above all the funding for a world government. the British politician, business consultant, policy adviser exclusively told the Alex Jones show yesterday"
## [2902] "So the temperature graph made from seven weather stations, which NIWA has used for years to prove that the New Zealand climate has warmed, and thus we must take expensive action against global warming caused by humanitys emissions of carbon dioxide, has never had proper scientific standing."
## [2903] "Once again I have to thank Grant Foster (a.k.a. Tamino and Hansens Bulldog) for yet another opportunity to show that NOAA cannot justify the relatively high warming rate of their new ERSST.v4 sea surface temperature data during the hiatus, because it far exceeds the trend of the HadNMAT2 data that NOAA used as a reference."
## [2904] "The global circulation models (GCMs) are essentially linear. That presumably is why they generally fail to reproduce the ENSO and PDO. (If they show any nonlinear behaviour it is probably more by accident than design.) It remains to be seen whether climate and ocean modelling of the ENSO or of larger parts of the global climate, which used a nonlinear oscillator as a starting point, would be more effective."
## [2905] "When the earth??s observations falls outside and below the ???weather?? spread but inside the ???all weather in all models?? spread that suggests the ensembles is biased high but the deterministic component of the earth??s trend might match one of the models whose deterministic warming falls in the lower range of the ensemble."
## [2906] "Consciously distorted: NCAR's Wigley once complained to Mann, \"Mike, the Figure you sent is very deceptive there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model results by individual authors and by IPCC. \""
## [2907] "Most ocean models used in performing coupled general-circulation model sensitivity runs simply cannot resolve most of the physical processes relevant for capturing heat uptake by the deep ocean. Ultimately, the second law of thermodynamics requires that any heat which may have accumulated in the deep ocean will dissipate via various diffusive processes. It is not plausible that any heat taken up by the deep ocean will suddenly warm the upper ocean and, via the upper ocean, the atmosphere."
## [2908] "Alarmist climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf of the end-of-world-obsessed Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) responded angrily at Twitter , as the German-government-funded scientist called the statement very depressing and accused the Prime Minister of denial about reality:"
## [2909] "This is the opposite trend expected by the IPCC. This deceleration would be even steeper on a percentage of existing CO2 in the atmosphere."
## [2910] "While the title of this article suggests Ive found evidence of natural climate cycles in the IPCC models, its actually the temperature variability the models CANNOT explain that ends up being related to known climate cycles. After an empirical adjustment for that unexplained temperature variability, it is shown that the models are producing too much global warming since 1970, the period of most rapid growth in atmospheric carbon dioxide. This suggests that the models are too sensitive, in which case they are forecasting too much future warming, too."
## [2911] "There are the unknown conscientious \"objectors\" who, just prior to the UNCCC, released thousands of emails and documents proving decades of fraud by the \"global warming\" institutions and \"scholars.\" Then came the many scholarly websites (junkscience.com, wattsupwiththat.com, climatedepot.com, icecap.us, cfact.org, sppi.orgto mention just a few) and the scientists who worked over-time analyzing the leaked documents. They have pieced together at least twenty years of \"faked\" global warming graphs and organized suppression of opposing points of view."
## [2912] "But according to increasing numbers of serious climate scientists, it does suggest that the computer models that have for years been predicting imminent doom, such as??those used by the Met Office and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are flawed, and that the climate is far more complex than the models assert.\""
## [2913] "The UK??s Met. Office has boldly stated that a decline in the Sun??s activity will have no effect on the runaway effects of CO2. Based on their record, stout footwear and warm coat futures are up."
## [2914] "Gradually, however, the IPCC found it expedient to offset not just some but all of the CO2 radiative forcing with a putative negative forcing from particulate aerosols. Only by this device could it continue to maintain that its very high centennial, bicentennial, and equilibrium values for the climate-sensitivity parameter were plausible."
## [2915] "The above charts (click to enlarge) produced by Tisdale show both the Northern and Southern hemisphere actual sea surface temperatures (blue). The charts include the IPCC's climate model projection (red) for the last 17 years. As can be seen, the reality of sea surface temperatures and global warming is significantly different than what the IPCC's climate models predicted."
## [2916] "Twitter / Ed Shaz Honestly, the 'Global Warming' campaign is a discrediting disaster. How about straight forward 'stop trashing the planet!' efforts? YouTube - Cave Bob's Debut: Attack on James Hansen's Propaganda (warning-profanity)"
## [2917] "GHCNs adjustment up of NYC data, clearly an urban location, also calls into question the global adjustment process. These kinds of what appears to be arbitrary adjustments imply lack of data quality assurance and constitute a clear violation of the data quality act."
## [2918] "Another 12 minutes of filler go by images of Gore in his limo, more Earth photos, a Mark Twain quote, and Gore memories until about the 16:30 minute mark, when, according to the judge, Al Gore erroneously links receding glaciers specifically Mt. Kilimanjaro with global warming."
## [2919] "Then there is the matter of outright deception, collusion and fraud at EPA, via these and other tactics."
## [2920] "Lee et al., of course, attributed the long-term and short-term warming of the Pacific Ocean (0-700 meters) to downward longwave radiation (from manmade greenhouse gases). Unfortunately for Lee et al., the data, when broken down into tropical Pacific and extratropical North Pacific subsets, indicate that was not the case. This suggests the simulations of ENSO in the tropical Pacific and the simulations of ocean heat uptake related to variations in sea level pressures and wind patterns in the extratropical North Pacific were both flawed in the model used by Lee et al."
## [2921] "Much of the so-called science on global warming comes from computer modeling. This same science is rarely correct about the hurricane season, the severity of winter or the weather next week."
## [2922] "The alarmism of Sir David King, the British government's chief scientific adviser, has become even more hysterical in recent days. Not content with repeatedly calling global warming a bigger threat than terrorismeven after the Madrid attacks of March 11and publicly criticizing the U. S. administration, he has now gone, as the British say, \"completely off the deep end.\""
## [2923] "From the thousands of email and other documents that comprise \"Climategate,\" this is one of the most interesting: It's a \"travesty\" that \"we can??t account for the lack of warming at the moment.\" (Emphasis added.) Further, \"any consideration of geoengineering quite hopeless as we will never be able to tell if it is successful or not!\"What does \"at the moment\" actually mean? Would you guess the past 10 years! That's right; no warming in the past decade even as so-called \"greenhouse gas emissions\" and ambient concentrations are at historical highs! Does this prove global warming is a \"hoax\"? No. But it proves the simple equation of \"more greenhouse gases = more warming\" is false. Read about it in my new Forbes Online piece, \"Show Me the Warming.\""
## [2924] "\"Startlingly, nearly all of the usual arguments for alarm about the climate are instances of Aristotles dozen fallacies of relevance or of presumption, not the least of which is the consensus fallacy.\""
## [2925] "Clearly the main accusations leveled at UEA after the Climategate scandal have not yet been addressed in any form by an independent inquiry. There is one more to come, from Sir Muir Russell?s team, which supposedly will investigate accusations of abuse of the peer-review process. If it approaches the inquiry with the same lack of thoroughness and superficiality as the previous inquiries, it will doubtless also find little wrong. However, those who have read Ross McKitrick?s narratives know there is a case to answer."
## [2926] "This is a circular, incestuous process. Scientists make decisions as journal editors about what qualifies as peer-reviewed literature. They then cite the same papers they themselves played midwife to while serving as IPCC authors."
## [2927] "Finally, and most troubling, are the suggestions that a tribe of incestuous climate scientists may have actively conspired to undermine the peer-review process."
## [2928] "2) Climate models are not based upon physics, they consist almost entirely of parameterizations/fudge factors , which is one of many reasons why they do not properly simulate the most fundamental aspects of climate including convection, clouds, gravity waves, atmospheric circulation, ocean oscillations, indirect solar amplification mechanisms, etc. This is why recent papers have called for scrapping the current crop of failed numerical models and replacing them with a whole new approach of stochastic modeling."
## [2929] "Another thing that feeds my suspicion that a pagan mindset informs Global Warmingism are the steady and consistent calls for sacrifice ? even human sacrifice ? to ward off the threatened catastrophes."
## [2930] "Following an exhaustive review of more than fifty years of long term data on environmental conditions at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, located in the White Mountains of New Hampshire, the paper??s authors arrived at a sobering conclusion: current climate change models don??t account for real life surprises that take place in forests."
## [2931] "IPCC reports are supposed to be the gold standard account of what is and is not known about global warming. The panel boasts that it uses only peer-reviewed scientific literature. But its claims about mountain ice turned out to be anecdotes from a climbing magazine, its claims on the Amazon's vulnerability to drought from a Brazilian pressure group's website and 42 per cent of the references in one chapter proved to be to reports by Greenpeace, WWF and other \"grey\" literature. Yesterday's review finds that guidelines on the use of this grey literature \"are vague and have not always been followed\"."
## [2932] "A couple of notes: The multi-model mean data are not expected to present the year-to-year variations in sea surface temperature associated with the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some of the models simulate ENSO; others dont. The models that do attempt to simulate ENSO do a poor job of it. (This is documented in numerous peer-reviewed papers.) Each model produces ENSO events on its own schedule; that is, the modeled ENSO events do not reproduce the observed frequency, duration, and magnitude of El Nio and La Nia events. Since the multi-model mean presents the average of all of those out-of-synch ENSO signals, they are smoothed out. For this reason, we are only concerned with the disparity in the modeled and observed trends."
## [2933] "The \"trick\" was of course, to truncate the divergent data, to replace it with the instrumental records for the same period and then to smooth the spliced series so that the join was no longer visible. The sentence is the Spiegel article seems to suggest that this \"swap, splice and smooth\" process could reasonably be described as a \"mere\" fudge."
## [2934] "First, a real attempt by a small group of scientists to subvert the peer-review process and suppress dissenting voices. This is at best massively unethical."
## [2935] "I was therefore interested to read about how critical climate scientists are of climate models, but this did make me return again to my observations about climate sensitivity. If climate scientists have so little confidence in computer models, how come the IPCC's estimates of climate sensitivity are based on models rather than the less alarming empirical measurements? I think we need to know."
## [2936] "These inflated, error-prone, tinkered-with temperature recordings are one of several measurements cited by the U.N.??s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as evidence man-made global warming is a threat. But the Heartland study concluded, ???The U.S. temperature record is unreliable. And since the U.S. record is thought to be ???the best in the world,?? it follows that the global database is likely similarly compromised and unreliable.??"
## [2937] "Global warming is not happening at anything like the predicted rate. The divergence between prediction and reality is now severe. Despite revisions in the terrestrial datasets calculated to cause an unmeasured increase in the warming rate of recent decades, the gulf between the exaggerated predictions in the models and the far less exciting observed reality is in danger of becoming an abyss."
## [2938] "That is why the Eastern United States, Northern Europe and East Asia have experienced extraordinarily snowy and cold winters since the turn of this century. Most forecasts have failed to predict these colder winters, however, because the primary drivers in their models are the oceans, which have been warming even as winters have grown chillier. They have ignored the snow in Siberia."
## [2939] "Dr. Christopher J. Kobus, Associate Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Oakland University In essence, the jig is up. The whole thing is a fraud. And even the fraudsters that fudged data are admitting to temperature history that they used to say didnt happenPerhaps what has doomed the Climategate fraudsters the most was their brazenness in fudging the data"
## [2940] "I frankly find it immensely sad that, not only real events, but also the work and knowledge of serious scientists, accumulated over many years, can apparently be swept aside at the whim of an algorithm. Computer models can have their value, but we surely need to keep an eye on whats happening in the real world."
## [2941] "Oh, and what of those much-vaunted computer software models showing the world warming, the icecaps melting, and the world ending? The leaker kindly included the computer code used by the IPCC for its modeling, in which we find this interesting snippet:"
## [2942] "Risbey et al. (2014) admitted that the models they selected for having the proper sequence of ENSO events did so by chance, not out of skill, which undermines the intent of their paper. If the focus of the paper had been need for climate models to be in-phase with obseervations, they would have achieved their goal. But that wasnt the aim of the paper. The concluding sentence of the abstract claims that climate models have provided good estimates of 15-year trends, including for recent periods when, in fact, it was by pure chance that the cherry-picked models aligned with the real world. No skill involved. If models had any skill, the outputs of the models would be in-phase with observations."
## [2943] "This private musing between two climate scientist colleagues first surfaced along with a whole raft of embarrassing material in 2011, when the anonymous Climategate leaker who calls himself \"Mr. FOIA\" leaked his second set of emails from Britain's disgraced Climate Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia. Now, Mr. FOIA has emerged for a third time, sharing with the world not only his entire batch of 220,000 encrypted emails and documents but also, for the first time, his thoughts."
## [2944] "In other words, you have to know all the current conditions of the atmosphere, everywhere within it, to predict what the atmosphere will be doing in the distant future. In view of the inevitable inaccuracy and incompleteness of weather observations, precise very-long-range forecasting would seem to be nonexistent, Lorenz concluded. So even if the molecules in the air all interacted nonrandomly, in a totally cause-and-effect (deterministic) manner, you still couldnt predict with certainty what they would do or what the weather would be."
## [2945] "Government climate scientists respond predictably by further tampering with temperature data, and claiming record warm sea surface temperatures."
## [2946] "The underlying causes of these constant switches from warm to cold cycles, and back again, remain a long way from being understood."
## [2947] "In keeping with the total and complete stubbornness of the paleoclimate community, they use the most famous series of Mann et al 2008: the contaminated Korttajarvi sediments, the problems with which are well known in skeptic blogs and which were reported in a comment at PNAS by Ross and I at the time. The original author, Mia Tiljander, warned against use of the modern portion of this data, as the sediments had been contaminated by modern bridgebuilding and farming. Although the defects of this series as a proxy are well known to readers of skeptical blogs, peer reviewers at Nature were obviously untroubled by the inclusion of this proxy in a temperature reconstruction."
## [2948] "It should have been clear to experts that the scenario was pure nonsense, and not because so much icein this region could ever melt in just 25 years, but also because the Himalayan glacier area given in the IPCC report was completely false. It is only 33,000 square kilometers and not a grotesque 500,000."
## [2949] "As a cross check, I looked at the temperature records at four nearby sites, including one at Heathrow itself. All sites were within 7 miles of Heathrow, and they all showed highs of between 95.0 and 95.2F (35.0 and 35.1C), suggesting that the Heathrow temperature was both biased high by its siting and affected by an artificial spike."
## [2950] "The collapse of the global warming hoax has warmists running scared, and some are trying to play the ???uncertainty card?? . Busted:"
## [2951] "The global temperature-monitoring network consists of 517 weather stations. But each reading is only a tiny dot on the big world map, and it has to be extrapolated to the entire region with the help of supercomputers. Besides, there are still many blind spots, the largest being the Arctic, where there are only about 20 measuring stations to cover a vast area. Climatologists refer to the problem as the \"Arctic hole.\""
## [2952] "It is no secret that the global warming scare has become a cash cow for many groups and individuals. Green groups use the issue to convince contributors to give larger donations and scientists of many disciplines try to make their work relevant to global warming in order to get a share of the federal government's yearly $2 billion global warming giveaway."
## [2953] "Can you see the issue? When projected back to pre-industrial CO2 levels, these future forecasts imply that we should have seen 2,3,4 or more degrees of warming over the last century, and even the flawed surface temperature records we are discussing with a number of upwards biases and questionable adjustments only shows about 0.6C."
## [2954] "This joint lecture covered a lot of ground, but the high point or peak was the revelation, graphically documented by Professor Legates, that all major climate models both overestimate and underestimate rainfall by as much as 60 inches per year over huge portions of the globe. Rainfall affects the mass balance, energy balance, and water balance of the climate system. Rain (or the absence thereof) is what most people mean by \"weather.\" If the models can't get rainfall right, why should we trust them to get anything else right?"
## [2955] "But the climate scientists at CRU and elsewhere have denied McIntyre's information requests for yearsPhil Jones even emailed that he'd destroy the data rather than let McIntyre have it."
## [2956] "I think NASA is using this huge area of super-heated water to bolster its deceptive ???warmest year on record?? pronouncements."
## [2957] "Gore refuses to give up his private jets, limousines and carbon-intensive lifestyle. He refuses to correct any of the errors in his movie, lectures or testimony. He just wants us to give up our living standards."
## [2958] "The case of David Henderson and Ian Castles is a good example. Henderson, the former chief economist of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, and Castles, the former head of the Australian Statistical Bureau, noticed two years ago a serious methodological anomaly in the IPCC's 100-year greenhouse-gas emission forecasts that are the primary input to computer climate models. Henderson and Castles made a compelling argument that the forecasts were unrealistically high. Everyone recalls the first day of computer-science class: garbage in, garbage out. If future greenhouse-gas emissions are badly overestimated, then even a perfect computer model will spit out a false temperature prediction. Since Henderson and Castles's initial critique, the IPCC's forecasts have been subject to withering criticisms from dozens of other reputable economists, including a number of climate alarmists who, to their credit, argue that this crucial question should be gotten right."
## [2959] "What goes on at the IPCC is not peer review as that term is normally understood . . . To sum up, the IPCC is inordinately proud of its review process. It expects us to be impressed by how many people are involved and by how many comments it receives and addresses. But this process is fatally flawed. It is not independent. It is easily short-circuited and circumvented. Nothing about it measures up to academic peer review."
## [2960] "The Parliamentary Inquiry was never going to produce much. A single day?s hearings about a complicated subject with no-one on the committee an expert and several members true believers in global warming alarmism is not a recipe for an in-depth investigation. The main skeptical witness was Lord Lawson of Blaby, who, for all his strengths, is not an expert in the science himself. Researchers like Ross McKitrick, who have laid out strong cases for why Climategate reveals deliberate manipulation of science, were not asked to give evidence."
## [2961] "James Hansen has made many forecasts over the last 30 years, with close to 0% success rate. Betting on the opposite of what he predicts, is almost a sure thing. Thirty years ago he forecast peak sea-ice loss (40%) in the Weddell Sea of Antarctica."
## [2962] "In addition, the IPCC grossly exploits general public confusion over the whole issue of global temperatures. As I commented to them, their claim to have measured globally averaged temperatures near the surface is untrue. In order to do so, it would be necessary to distribute thermometers randomly over the entire surface of the earth, including oceans deserts and forests."
## [2963] "John, With regard to the matter of species migration you raised, I believe that this topic is entirely too speculative to discuss here. There are too many variables, too many special circumstances, too many uncertainties. Likewise, ocean heat content data is very poor, requiring numerous \"adjustments.\" Vertical temperature profiles are most surely controlled by currents that vary with depth. They are not one-dimensional, as implied by the data."
## [2964] "Dr. Richard Lindzen writes to me with news of this significant new paper saying It has taken almost 2 years to get this out. . Part of that problem appears to be hostile reviewers in earlier submissions to JGR, something weve seen recently with other skeptical papers, such as ODonnells rebuttal to Steig et al (Antarctica is warming) where Steig himself inappropriately served as a reviewer, and a hostile one at that. Hostile reviewers aside, the paper will now be published in an upcoming issue of the Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences and I am honored to be able to be able to present it"
## [2965] "Government bureaucrat-scientists and their expert \"global warming\" climate models, based on levels of atmospheric CO2, continue to prove an astounding incompetence - billions of taxpayer monies wasted on failed computer simulations that can't predict global temperatures"
## [2966] "Tom Crowley, a key member of Mann's global warming hockey team, showed crass disregard for the lying and hiding: \"I am not convinced that the \"truth' is always worth reaching, if it is at the cost of damaged personal relationships.\" It's more important to keep the career back-scratching team happy."
## [2967] "My main criticism of the article is that the BoM relies on Melbourne CBD rain data to back up their regional conclusions regarding ???climate change?? and drought, while the rainfall history is in fact affected by the growing urban heat island."
## [2968] "Put it this way. Climate forecasts, of the type relied upon by the IPCCand over governmental entities, stink. They are no good. They have beenpromising ever increasing temperatures for decades, but the observationshave been more or less steady. This must meanit is inescapable that something is very badly wrong with thetheory behind the models. What?"
## [2969] "The four Italian researchers write that \"the multi-model ensemble mean and most individual models exhibit a wet bias with respect to CRU and GPCC observations in both regions and for all seasons,\" which is about as all-encompassing a negative finding as one could imagine. Yet they also report that \"the models differ greatly in the seasonal climatology of precipitation which they reproduce in the HKK.\" And so it is that they are forced to conclude that \"no single model (or group of models) emerges as that providing the best results for all the statistics considered.\""
## [2970] "Whatever the reason for the divergence, it would seem to suggest that the practice of grafting the thermometer record onto a proxy temperature record as I believe was done in the case of the hockey stick is dubious to say the least."
## [2971] "Unfortunately, the anti-science of climate science will continue since it appears to be prerequisite of research funding - in simple words, scientists are forced to support the consensus green political agenda in order to survive and thrive."
## [2972] "The satellite measures temperatures in the layer of atmosphere from sea level up to about 35,000 feet, which Christy says includes three-fourths of the total Earth atmosphere. These measurements, he says, are much more accurate than relying solely on ground measurements."
## [2973] "From the graph it appears that the projections exaggerate, substantially, the response of the earths temperature to CO2 which increased by about 11% from 1989 through 2011. Furthermore, when one examines the historical temperature record throughout the 20th century and into the 21st, the data strongly suggest a much lower CO2 effect than almost all models calculate."
## [2974] "The IPCC has confirmed the authenticity of sample documents on these sticks. Today, I??m making this massive collection of data, (with reviewer comments), which I call the Secret Santa leak, public. Some of these documents are already online. Many others would only have been released by the IPCC years from now. Still others the IPCC intended to keep hidden forever."
## [2975] "3. It is, of course, not only about ideology. The problem has its important scientific aspect but it should be stressed that the scientific dispute about the causes of recent climate changes continues. The attempt to proclaim a scientific consensus on this issue is a tragic mistake, because there is none."
## [2976] "he main basis of the claim that mans release of greenhouse gases is the cause of the warming is based almost entirely upon climate models. We all know the frailty of models concerning the air-surface system. We only need to watch the weather forecasts."
## [2977] "Rossiter on IPCC: For the IPCC to say nothing else can explain (global warming except mankinds CO2) is the opposite of what we do in science. We are trying to test the known hypothesis that there is no effect to anthropogenic warming. And in order to do that, you have to have data that removes all the other causes factors out all the other elements, and isolate yours. It is simply not true; it is simply not true that you can only model how temperature has changed from 1850 to today using a doubling of carbon dioxide levels. I can model it for you with baseball statistics from that same period, if you give me enough time to scrub the models."
## [2978] "Now we have a massive problem. Because of the corrections, the surface measured temperatures (GISS, HadCRUT3) show a trend which no longer agrees with the satellite measurements (RSS, UAH)."
## [2979] "Regional models give you the illusion of higher resolution. In reality its no better than the global models. If a GCM will give you strong warming, the regional model will give you strong warming. The message is that these regional models are not giving us the information people think they are giving."
## [2980] "Daily Express, 28 October 2010: IT?S a prediction that means this may be time to dig out the snow chains and thermal underwear. The Met Office, using data generated by a 33million supercomputer, claims Britain can stop worrying about a big freeze this year because we could be in for a milder winter than in past years? The new figures, which show a 60 per cent to 80 per cent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures this winter, were ridiculed last night by independent forecasters. The latest data comes in the form of a December to February temperature map on the Met Office?s website."
## [2981] "Experts say thepolar vortex is caused by global warming and disappearing ice, butforty years ago they said it was caused by global cooling and expanding ice."
## [2982] "No, the basis for my suspicion is, in large part, the irrational and superstitious way Global Warmingism proponents and adherents react to any kind of extreme weather as evidence that modern economic and scientific activity is making global temperatures unnaturally rise."
## [2983] "As a postscript, I take on Mr. Stern's temperature forecasts of 2.5-3 degree C rise by 2050 and show why they make absolutely no sense in light of the last 100 years of empirical data."
## [2984] "The authors observed increases in CAPE at 12 of the 15 tropical radiosonde stations over the period of their study. These increases, they say, appear to have been driven \"by increases in near-surface temperature and/or humidity.\" They also report that the overall increase in CAPE appears to have been caused largely \"by a shift in the middle 1970s\" that was \"consistent with the time of an apparent shift of the background state of the climate.\" The climate model, however, even though forced by observed sea surface temperatures, did not reproduce the overall increase in CAPE. The authors then coupled the atmospheric model to an ocean model and ran a simulation \"with changing greenhouse gases and aerosols in the twentieth century.\" Once again, however, they report that, \"like the atmospheric GCM, the coupled model did not reproduce the observed trends in CAPE over the period examined.\""
## [2985] "Second, the idea of seeking a consensus on global warming reveals a misunderstanding of science itself. For science, facts are determined by the scientific method, wherein quantitative predictions resulting from a theory are refuted or confirmed by experiments. The known inadequacies of the present models mean they can tell us very little about the cause of climate change."
## [2986] "Anti-skepticism isn?t science. At best it?s a kind of para-science, because skepticism is inherent to the scientific process. This para-science is the unprecedented, powerful, well-funded force, not the much-maligned skeptics. Even the oil companies go against the clich and fund it. It?s the skepticism inherent to science that is embattled. Everything else is delusion and lies. That is how the science has been damaged. That is among the main points of Garth?s book. Skepticism aims at truth. Para-science is about other agendas. No matter what they are, ?moral imperative? not withstanding, finding the truth trumps them all. Many scientists, including me, are worried humanity has been paying ?too high a price? in subordinating science to these agendas."
## [2987] "95 percent of global warming models are wrong"
## [2988] "One should not ignore the elephant in the room. Our CO2 graph shows one elephant: the failure of CO2 concentration over the past decade to follow the high trajectory projected by the IPCC on the basis of global emissions similar to todays. As far as we can discover, no one but SPPI has pointed out this phenomenon. Our temperature graph shows another elephant: the 30-year warming trend long enough to matter is again well below what the IPCCs methods would project. If either situation changes, followers of our monthly graphs will be among the first to know. As they say at Fox News, We report: you decide."
## [2989] "the GCMs fail to reproduce the major decadal and multidecadal oscillations found in the global surface temperature record from 1850 to 2011. On the contrary, the proposed harmonic model (which herein uses cycles with 9.1, 1010.5, 2021, 6062 year periods) is found to well reconstruct the observed climate oscillations from 1850 to 2011, and it is shown to be able to forecast the climate oscillations from 1950 to 2011 using the data covering the period 18501950, and vice versa."
## [2990] "Read here . Bozo climate predictions appear to be the IPCC's raison d'tre, which they definitely excel at. The latest bozo climate prediction found to be erroneous is that global warming, due to human CO2 emission increases, will cause more precipitation, thus causing more floods of greater frequency and intensity. Fortunately for the world, the IPCC is wrong again."
## [2991] "The representation of clouds is one of the main weaknesses of current climate models . In particular, the parameterization of boundary layer stratus clouds has proved to be very difficult and has been a major area of research in the last decade. These clouds have a very weak greenhouse effect, but strongly reflect incoming shortwave radiation, thus modulating the albedo of the Earth. Bony and Dufresne (2005) have shown that the simulation of marine low level clouds is a large source of uncertainty in tropical cloud feedbacks and of climate sensitivity, suggesting that the simulation of tropical responses to different forcings will strongly depend on the parameterization of these clouds, and that results need to be tested using different cloud schemes."
## [2992] "I'm suspicious of anybody who does a lot of loud, public fretting. Hoodwinking your fellow citizens by means of dreads and frights has been going on since Paleolithic times. Politicians on the subject of global warming are no different than tribal wizards on the subject of lunar eclipses."
## [2993] "The United Nations undersecretary for planning is following in the footsteps of his comrades Stalin, who had 5-year plans, and Hitler, who had 4-year plans. His planning includes the future developments in science. As the AFP reveals, Robert Orr of the U.N. has planned that the next IPCC climate report will be more catastrophic than ever before."
## [2994] "Following the humiliation of the EU and its supporters (including Australia) at Copenhagen last December, the whole Anthropogenic Global Warming structure is now falling down, as one key structural element collapses after another. Even the Royal Society of London, for years a rock-solid player in this fraud, has announced the establishment of a committee to inquire into the Society?s role and conduct in this debate."
## [2995] "The Iceberg Lake, Alaska series has profound inhomogeneities, especially in its 20th century portion. A major inhomogeneity is that varve thickness is related to distance to the inlet, an observation first made in comments at Climate Audit in comments on Loso 2006. Loso 2009 conceded this point (without mentioning Climate AUdit though it did acknowledge WIllis Eschenbach who corresponded with Loso on a different point) but its remedy (taking logarithms) was hopelessly inadequate to the problem. Dietrich and Loso 2012 acknowledges that inhomogeneities impact their reconstruction, but did not amend or withdraw the earlier series. Interestingly, Dietrich and Loso report glacier advance in Alaska commencing around 1250AD, almost exactly contemporaneous with the well-dated Hvitarvatn advance. The Iceberg Lake series, as used, has a late 20th century uptick coinciding with a major inhomogeneity, the effect of which cannot be separated under any plausible technique known to me."
## [2996] "Also we have applied a completely artificial adjustment to the data after 1960, so they look closer to observed temperatures than the tree-ring data actually were Dr. Tim Osborn, Climatic Research Unit, disclosed Climategate e-mail, Dec. 20, 2006"
## [2997] "In her sworn testimony, Dr. Curry stated, The information cascade of climate change as apocalypse is impeding our ability to think rationally about how we should respond to climate change."
## [2998] "Let me emphasize again: The catastrophe results not from greenhouse gas theory, but from the theory of extreme climactic positive feedback. In a large sense, all the debate in the media is about the wrong thing! When was the last time you saw the words \"positive feedback\" in a media article about climate?"
## [2999] "Over the past decade, GISS has continued to show an increase in global temperatures, while HadCRUT has decreased. They have been diverging at a rate of about 1C per century, which is pretty dramatic considering that they report 0.01C precision."
## [3000] "Just look at some of the other postings on this site. Bossy, hand-wringing, whingeing demands that the economies of the West should be selectively shut down, because otherwise the polar ice will melt, the sea will rise, coral islands will drown, tempests will roar, plagues, famines, droughts and floods will stalk the Earth, and there will be Horsemen of the Apocalypse all over the place."
## [3001] "Climate researchers have discovered that NASA researchers improperly manipulated data in order to claim 2005 as \"the warmest year on record.\""
## [3002] "Climate scientists say it will take at least ten years of continuing observation and theoretical studies to decide whether increasing CO2 levels are likely to cause significant global warming. T. P. Barnett, co-reviewer of the 1995 IPCC report, states, \"The next 10 years will tell; we're going to have to wait that long to really see.\"37 K. Hasselmann of Germany's Max Planck Institute for Meteorology concurs, \"It will take another decade or so to work up out of the noise.\" 38"
## [3003] "It was eight years ago this month that the United Nations said we had eight years to do something about global warming. If not, the planet would be in trouble . Well, here we are, and no climate disaster has befallen Earth. And none is on the horizon."
## [3004] "environmental pressure groups, renewable energy companies and some public officials who keep each other well supplied with lavish funds, scare stories and green tape."
## [3005] "An article published today in Nature notes multiple and substantial uncertainties and deficiencies of climate models which are\" crucial for predicting global warming,\" due primarily to the low-resolution of today's models which is insufficient to skillfully simulate essential climate aspects such as"
## [3006] "In addition, computer models cant explain global warming from 1910-1940 without increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels; followed by a slight decline in global temperatures from 1945 to 1975 and increasing global temperatures from 1975-1998, at the same rate as the 1910-1940 increase, when atmospheric carbon dioxide levels increased about 16 percent."
## [3007] "Aerosols - suspended particles - in the atmosphere have various effects. Black carbon soot absorbs sunlight and heats the world up, but most other kinds of aerosol tend to cool things down, mostly by presenting nuclei for clouds to form on and so reflecting heat back into space. There is widespread scientific agreement, even among firmly pro-warmist researchers, that aerosols have powerful effects - but just how much aerosol can be expected in the atmosphere of the future is not at all well known, and current models aren't thought to handle this factor at all well."
## [3008] "How is two to five metres of ice going to melt this summer, with the sun setting for the winter andtemperaturesbelow 0C? They cant even keep their story straight, much less get it right."
## [3009] "With all of their fancy equipment, forecasters can??t predict an historic ice storm just a few hours in advance ?? and you want me to believe that the IPCC can predict what??s going to happen a hundred years from now?"
## [3010] "???The reality of these key points is not just our opinion. The national academies of science of 32 nations, and every major scientific organization in the United States whose members include climate experts, have issued statements endorsing these points. The entire faculty of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at Texas A&M; as well as the Climate System Science group at the University of Texas have issued their own statements [ here and here ) endorsing these views. In fact, to the best of our knowledge, there are no climate scientists in Texas who disagree with the mainstream view of climate science.??"
## [3011] "NOAA ??? NASA Temperature Announcement: Perhaps few public statements exemplify the willingness of certain government agencies to mislead the public as clearly as this week??s joint announcement by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The press release reads as if the announcement was considered more an opportunity for self-promotion than a scientific statement."
## [3012] "Its reached the point where our national masthead felt the need to issue a whole feature article rebutting their critics ( Climate debate is no place for hotheads ) which includes quote after quote of The Australians pro man-made-global-warming editorials. But why under the Goddess of Free Press should any serious newspaper feel required to declare their belief in a particular scientific theory?"
## [3013] "Two major uncertainties lie in the statistical development, analysis and interpretation of tree-ring data for paleoclimate studies. First, there are nonclimatic influences on tree-ring records, including tree biology, size, age and the effects of localized forest dynamics ?? . Perhaps of more concern is that tree ring data reflect a nonlinear response to multivariate climate forcings."
## [3014] "What justification does the Appendix give for choosing the trending autoregressive model? None. In other words, the model used by the IPCC is just adopted by proclamation. Science is supposed to be based on evidence and logic. The failure of the IPCC to present any evidence or logic to support its choice of model is a serious violation of basic scientific principles indeed, it means that what the IPCC has done is not science."
## [3015] "Environmentalists and Democrats often cite a ?97 percent? consensus among climate scientists about global warming. But they never cite estimates that 95 percent of climate models predicting global temperature rises have been wrong."
## [3016] "Obviously there has been a lot of concern from climate change sceptics who brought this matter to the public eye. If you look at the wording of the emails, the fact is that Prof Jones talked of a trick to hide the decline."
## [3017] "The IPCC reached a climate sensitivity to CO2 of about 3C per doubling. More popular (at least in the media) catastrophic forecasts range from 5C on up to about any number you can imagine, way past any range one might consider reasonable."
## [3018] "Climate change science is in a period of negative discovery the more we learn about this exceptionally complex and rapidly evolving field the more we realize how little we know. Truly, the science is NOT settled."
## [3019] "The authors report that Stenchikov et al . (2006) analyzed seven models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that \"included all the models that specifically represented volcanic eruptions,\" finding that the strength and spatial pattern of the surface temperature anomalies predicted by them were not \"well reproduced.\""
## [3020] "When skeptics point out these blatant biases, however, alarmists claim that scientists by their very nature are immune from having their environmental activist affiliations, the source of their paychecks or their preexisting advocacy for global warming restrictions influence their research and scientific opinions. Skeptics who call attention to such biases are demonized as attacking scientists or attacking science itself."
## [3021] "The SPM omits that better cultivars and improved irrigation increase crop yields . It shows the impact of sea level rise on the most vulnerable country, but does not mention the average. It emphasizes the impacts of increased heat stress but downplays reduced cold stress . It warns about poverty traps , violent conflict and mass migration without much support in the literature. The media, of course, exaggerated further. . . ."
## [3022] "If temperature can't be projected for a week, how is itpossible to project temperature to 2050 and beyond?"
## [3023] "First, 74% of all U.S. stations are adjusted, while only 37% of ROW stations are adjusted. This is a statistically significant difference by any measure. Is this because the ROW stations are, on average, located in more rural settings than in the US? Or is it because of a difference in methodology (or metadata)? While no one to my knowledge has carried out the engineering-quality investigations necessary to resolve the matter, my impression is that the US has made a fairly concerted effort to maintain weather stations in rural settings (Orland, Miles City etc.) and that many ROW stations are in cities and small towns (especially airports). Using a consistent apples-and-apples population classification, I would be very surprised if this very large difference between U.S. and ROW classifications held up."
## [3024] "9 In June 2007, Tim Flannery warned Brisbane that its water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months. Last month Brisbane recorded the wettest December in 150 years ."
## [3025] "NOAA will reporting something very different, because they subtract up to 1.7 degrees from older temperatures. Essentially all reported US warming is due to a hockey stick of temperature adjustments, which makes the past appear to be much colder than what the thermometers measured at the time. (They of course do not mention this in their press releases.)"
## [3026] "SPEAKING of the Met, it has so far predicted 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2007 would be the worlds hottest or second-hottest year on record, but nine of the past 10 years it predicted temperatures too high."
## [3027] "This would be decisive if today??s models accurately simulate all important modes of natural variability. In fact, models do not accurately simulate the behavior of clouds and ocean cycles. They may also ignore important interactions between the Sun, cosmic rays, and cloud formation."
## [3028] "And the media diehard alarmist are reaching even deeper into their bag of tricks. The September 2013 National Geographic cover shows the Statue of Liberty covered in 65 m (214 ft) of waterthis is 80 times more than even the highest expected sea level rise in the upcoming IPCC report."
## [3029] "Indeed, Wang et al. begin their article noting The impact of the rising sea surface temperature (SST) on tropical cyclone (TC) activity is one of the great societal and scientific concerns. With the observed warming of the tropics of around 0.5C over the past 4 to 5 decades, detecting the observed change in the TC activity may shed light on the impact of the global warming on TC activity. Recent studies of the trends in the existing records of hurricane intensity have resulted in a vigorous debate in academic circles. Much of the debates centered on uncertainties of the hurricane intensity records. Once again, we see scientists acknowledging that yet another vigorous debate is ongoing in the climate change world, despite the popular claim that the debate is over when it comes to the science of global warming (possibly the most laughable claim we encounter)."
## [3030] "A former NASA climate scientist has put out a new report criticizing the argument that global warming is settled science."
## [3031] "The observed surface and lower-atmosphere temperatures do not support predictions of dramatically rising temperatures from increased atmospheric greenhouse gases."
## [3032] "The alternative option is for the Commission to continue on its present policy of suppressing contrarian research on the climate change issue. The Commission should be prepared for the inevitable criticism when the predicted severe droughts occur and the public start asking awkward questions. The disintegration of its policy could commence within months."
## [3033] "Barry Brill makes a strong case for the New Zealand temperature record to ignore the period before 1930. In essence, he says that a 70-year-long record is plenty long enough to establish a trend, and in any case the early data is either missing or unreliable just chuck it out! He says it at greater length and more politely than that in a sometimes tongue-in-cheek article that makes sly digs at NIWA for the mistakes or naked bias that have given us a deeply suspect temperature history. Richard Treadgold"
## [3034] "Honestly. The IPCC was established by politicians, its experts are selected by politicians, and its conclusions are negotiated by politicians. A predetermined political agenda has been part of the landscape for the past 20 years. For to whine that people who disagree with the IPCC are motivated by politics is the equivalent of someone who has lived by the sword complaining that they might die by it."
## [3035] "It is concerning that the expert panel still cannot explain the exaggerated warming in the official record for Rutherglen. It seems the only thing wrong with the original observed values is that they did not accord with global warming theory, and so they were homogenized."
## [3036] "We forgot to mention one other little problem. The average warming given by the IPCC in the scenario used by Battisti and Naylor is almost certainly too high."
## [3037] "Since the late 1980s The New York Times has engaged in the most horrid effort to convince its readers and the world that the IPCC should be taken seriously even though its successive reports have proven to be an offense to real science and the truth. No opportunity was ignored to advance the hoax even in the face of incontrovertible facts of every description."
## [3038] "Oh noes, thermometers climate scientists used to measure thermal radiation to prove the greenhouse gas effects temperature are designed to specifically ignore feedback from greenhouse gasses . The science is unsettling, no?"
## [3039] "But these inconvenient truths are irrelevant to climate campaigners, who are using dangerous manmade climate change as the best pretext ever devised to control energy use and economies. They simply hypothesize, model and assert that every observed weather and climate phenomenon is due to human CO2 emissions. Warmer or colder, wetter or drier, more ice or less, more storms, fewer storms, occasional big storms if not now, someday, sooner or later. Its exactly what climate alarmists predicted."
## [3040] "The taxpayer-funded, billion-dollar black holes known as 'climate models' have been unable to predict squat when it comes to future climate conditions - as with global temperatures, the same holds true for the newer IPCC models predicting Antarctic sea ice extent.....it's the 'same old, same old'"
## [3041] "I look at the models, and I do use them as input to the forecast with many other factors. However they are not Gods, and to make the excuse we need a bigger computer when in reality all they do is arrive at a solution right or wrong faster, and have nothing factored in about past weather events, or natural cycles, or some of the other things Piers and I use, seems to me to be blaming the model and then saying you need more of what failed in the first place."
## [3042] "Whats happened here is that the cart was put before the horse. The UN didnt wait around for climate science to mature. Theyd already decided that human-generated emissions were dangerous. Back in 1992, 154 nations endorsed this premature conclusion when they became signatories to the UNFCCC. . . The fourth edition of the Climate Bible, which contains the strongest yet still speculative and qualified language, appeared 15 years later."
## [3043] "Last year, I encountered a stark example of this. One of my colleagues was thinking about publishing a paper that challenges the IPCC interpretation of the previous pause during the 1940s to 1970s. My colleague sent a .ppt presentation on this topic to three colleagues, each of whom is a very respected senior scientist and none of whom have been particularly vocal advocates on the subject of climate change (names are withheld to protect the guilty/innocent). Each of these scientists strongly encouraged my colleague NOT to publish this paper, since it would only provide fodder for the skeptics. (Note: my colleague has not yet written this paper, but not because he was discouraged by these colleagues)."
## [3044] "The report is driven by the misguided ideology of Climatism, the belief that man-made greenhouse gases are destroying Earths climate. According to Climatism, Earths climate has been unchanging for thousands of years, but carbon dioxide emissions from human society are now causing dangerous global warming. Further, any change in Earths climate must be bad for US citizens."
## [3045] "Over the full record (1979-2010) the real world has only warmed about two-thirds as much as models indicate that it should have. If this continues to the end of the century, the IPCC?s 21st century warming range of 1.1 C to 6.4 C becomes about 0.75 C to 4.25 C ?with a central value of 2.5 C. But what?s worse is that a model/observation disparity could indicate that the climate models are not faithfully reproducing reality, which would mean that they are not particularly valuable as predictive tools."
## [3046] "The problem is that until the surfacestations.org project came along, they never actually looked at the measurement environment of the stations, nor did they even bother to tell the volunteer operators of those stations that they were special, so that they would perform an extra measure of due diligence in data gathering and ensuring that the stations met the most basic of siting rules, such as the NOAA 100 foot rule :"
## [3047] "But the main problem is the longstanding one: if you take a small subpopulation of hockeystick shaped bristlecones and mix them with a population of proxies that are indistinguishable from white noise/red noise and apply typical multiproxy recipes, you will get back a HS-shaped reconstruction."
## [3048] "However it is not a stretch to think that the conclusions of this Harvard study were preordained. Delving into the literature shows that a different group of folks could set out to examine the same thing even selecting from among the same pool of climate, economic, and epidemiological studies and arrive at a largely different conclusiona conclusion that the externalities from coal-fuelled electricity are only slightly negative, and perhaps even positive."
## [3049] "Today the New York Times is hysterical about retreat of the glacier at Glacier Bay, Alaska."
## [3050] "At this point, we might ask, since virtually everything else in the NCA report is based on these computer models, doesnt that invalidate all that follows? It certainly invalidates their dire predictions, but the report also contains assertions that are based on claims other than from models. So lets look at some of those."
## [3051] "This is the definition of a sensitivity experiment! In other words, policymakers are being given global and regionalmulti-decadal model results by the IPCCwhich are not predictions but sensitivity model runs since a variety of important first order climate forcings and feedbacks are not included in the models! . Real Climate now has finally reported to us this serious limitiation to the interpretation of the results fromclimate models."
## [3052] "From page SPM-9: There is very high confidence that models reproduce the more rapid warming in the second half of the 20th century, and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions. Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 1015 years. There is medium confidence that this difference between models and observations is to a substantial degree caused by unpredictable climate variability, with possible contributions from inadequacies in the solar, volcanic, and aerosol forcings used by the models and, in some models, from too strong a response to increasing greenhouse-gas forcing. {9.4.1, 10.3.1, 11.3.2; Box 9.2}"
## [3053] "As a public body, NCDC have a duty to be accountable for all of their work, as well as to be totally transparent. They have been aware of this issue now since January, and it is surely time for them to step up to the plate and either explain how their adjustments are correct, or withdraw them. Furthermore, they must fully investigate all other significant adjustments elsewhere and withdraw them where they cannot be fully substantiated. I would also suggest they ask themselves why these clearly incorrect adjustments were not identified and put right at the very outset. It should not be up to independent observers to be doing this for them."
## [3054] "For decades, the IPCC has presented climate science as an established field. Now we??re being asked to have ???more patience to let the science to unfold??? Climate scientists have had two decades to program their models, and they still cannot simulate naturally occurring, naturally fueled, coupled ocean-atmosphere processes that can cause global temperatures to warm or can halt that warming."
## [3055] "Well, we already know that models cant simulate the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes that cause global sea surface temperatures to warm over multidecadal periods. (See the quick overview that follows.) So, the difference between the modeled and observed ratios of land to sea surface temperature warming rates suggests the basic underlying physics within the models are skewed. Skewed is the nicest word I could think to use."
## [3056] "My browsing did go so far as to try to identify the underlying data and, for some reason, I contacted the author of the hockey stick study, Michael Mann, when I was unable to locate the data. I initially became engaged in the matter in a more serious way, when Mann said that he had \"forgotten\" where the data was and one of his associates, to whom Mann turned over the inquiry, said that it was not in any one place, but that he would get it together for me. I drew that conclusion that no one had ever checked Mann??s work and thought that this would be an interesting project, rather like doing a large crossword puzzle. At the time, like any undergraduate reading this, I had never written an academic article. I certainly had no plans to become engaged in academic controversy."
## [3057] "But the real worry with climate research is that it is on the very edge of what is called postmodern science. This is a counterpart of the relativist world of postmodern art and design. It is a much more dangerous beast, whose results are valid only in the context of societys beliefs and where the very existence of scientific truth can be denied. Postmodern science envisages a sort of political nirvana in which scientific theory and results can be consciously and legitimately manipulated to suit either the dictates of political correctness or the policies of the government of theday."
## [3058] "Hansen now believes he has an answer: All the climate models, compared to the Argo data and a tracer study soon to be released by several NASA peers, exaggerate how efficiently the ocean mixes heat into its recesses . Their unanimity in this efficient mixing could be due to some shared ancestry in their code. Whatever the case, it means that climate models have been overestimating the amount of energy in the climate, seeking to match the surface warming that would occur with efficient oceans. They were solving a problem, Hansen says, that didnt exist."
## [3059] "Last month Landsea, a climate change scientist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), resigned as a participant in the producing the report. Landsea had been a chapter author and reviewer for the IPCC's second assessment report in 1995 and the third in 2001, and he is a leading expert on hurricanes and related extreme weather phenomena. He had signed on with the IPCC to update the state of current knowledge on Atlantic hurricanes for the fourth report. In an open letter, Landsea wrote that he could no longer in good conscience participate in a process that is \"being motivated by pre-conceived agendas\" and is \"scientifically unsound.\""
## [3060] "Actual scientists in disciplines that have existed before this political movement became strong are usually neutral or skeptical about the climate panic. This includes people in the adjacent disciplines such as meteorology, geology ??? and physics itself. Physicists should be particularly immune towards this kind of brainwashing. After all, when Galileo Galilei kickstarted physics, he was fighting against similar religious attempts to \"constrain\" the human thought."
## [3061] "As weve seen in numerous model-data comparisons, there are few similarities between modeled and observed surface temperatures and precipitation. See here , here , here , here , and here for examples. Weve compared satellite-era sea surface temperature to model outputs in past posts (examples here , here and here ), but we used model outputs from climate models stored in the CMIP3 archive, which was prepared for the 2007 4 th Assessment Report from the IPCC. In this post, were using the outputs of newer CMIP5 models, prepared for the IPCCs upcoming 5 th Assessment Report. Scenario RCP6.0 for the CMIP5 models is presented because it most closely matches the climate forcings of the scenario called SRES A1B, which was widely cited in the past."
## [3062] "Because of TOBS, all older temperatures should be adjusted upwards, not downwards. And because of UHI, all recent temperatures should be adjusted increasingly downwards. The actual adjustments are exactly the opposite of what they should be according to the USHCN documentation."
## [3063] "The Environmental Protection Agency has been in a full assault on the U.S. economy since the 1980s when the global warming hoax was initiated. It has been assisted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA."
## [3064] "The 1997 version disappeared from the web archive around January 1, right after I first published the results. It now comes up a blank page. Nothing suspicious about that. Certain nothing suspicious about the past repeatedly getting colder, and the present repeatedly getting warmer."
## [3065] "We have also shown that land use/land cover change has not been properly assessed inTom KarlsNCDC assessment ofglobal average surface temperature changes ; e.g. see"
## [3066] "Most surface temperature measurements have been made over land, and primarily in inhabited regions. Measurements for the ocean, which covers three-quarters of the area of the globe, are sparse. Measurements from a single station are sometimes used to represent an area as large as a million square miles. Temperature records also have other biases that require correction. One important bias arises from the fact that recording sites in and near cities are subject to the urban-heat-island effect. These sites were originally in rural areas, but as more people moved in and the surrounding areas were developed, the local temperature may have increased for reasons unrelated to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases.7"
## [3067] "Michael Manns famous hockey stick graph, the ultimate alarmist propaganda poster, has, we hope, finally been laid to rest. The stick was a central part of the IPCCs third assessment report, but was strangely dropped in the fourth. However, our own government still continues to use a version of it in order to mislead the unsuspecting public:"
## [3068] "Peter Stott, a researcher who authored the most recent IPCC report chapter on global climate projections, has found that climate model projections of an alarming temperature rise are inconsistent with past observations. When he and his colleagues at the U.K.s Met Office forced the amount of global warming predicted by the models to equal the amount of warming actually observed, the projected future rise to accompany human greenhouse gas emissions dropped substantially. In other words, the better climate models match the past, the less scary the likely future looks."
## [3069] "The \"Divergence Problem\" falls into the category of a ???main area of uncertainty?? . It arises because the majority of temperature-sensitive tree ring width \"site chronologies\" go down in the last half of the 20th century. Cuffey asked the $64 question to D??Arrigo: if tree rings are not picking up late 20th century warmth, how can you be certain that they might not have had a similar response to a comparable warm period in the past (e.g. in the Medieval Warm Period). The NAS panel acknowledges the ???divergence problem?? (p 47, 110), but doesn??t summarize it as one of the ???major areas of uncertainty??."
## [3070] "Former NASA scientist dispels notion global warming is \"settled' science"
## [3071] "We have, for example, the case of a former editor of Science who was quite open about his belief in DAGW, and actively discouraged publication of any papers that went against his bias. Finally, he had to be shamed into giving voice to a climate skeptics contrary opinion, based on solid scientific evidence. But of course, he reserved to himself the last word in the debate."
## [3072] "Remarkably, even the IPCCs latest and much reduced near-term global-warming projections are also excessive (Fig. 3)."
## [3073] "Tuesday is Earth Day, the calendar's High Holy Day of Green theology. With each passing year, environmentalism more clearly assumes the trappings of a secular religion. Now, along comes Iain Murray to assert that the Green God is dead."
## [3074] "Well at least the models were right about the sea ice loss in the Northern Hemisphere. Too bad for the modelers that our planet also has a Southern Hemsiphere."
## [3075] "But no matter how cold it gets, global-warming adherents insist its all part and parcel of what they believe to be abnormal and soon-to-be-catastrophic warming of the planets surface due to mans reckless introduction of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere."
## [3076] "In another email exhange, Mr. Mann wrote to Mr. Jones: \"This was the danger of always criticizing the skeptics for not publishing in the \"peer-reviewed literature.' Obviously, they found a solution to thattake over a journal! So what do we do about this? I think we have to stop considering \"Climate Research' as a legitimate peer-reviewed journal. Perhaps we should encourage our colleagues in the climate research community to no longer submit to, or cite papers in, this journal.\""
## [3077] "The failure of the models to simulate the polar amplified warming should come as no surprise to regular visitors. We showed in the post here last year that the models do not show the polar-amplified warming in the Arctic during the recent warming period, or the polar-amplified cooling in the Arctic during the cooling period from the early-1940s to the late-1970s."
## [3078] "The above graph shows how drastically the IPCC was compelled to reduce its near-term warming projections between the spaghetti-graph shown and the sharply downward-revised prediction zone between the two green arrows. The red arrows show where the medium-term predictions were in 1990. The observed trend, in black, is trailing along at the very bottom of the prediction zone."
## [3079] "Experts like Katherine Hayhoe have been hysterically warning about drought in the southwest, based on their mindless superstitions about CO2. Over the past two years, the southwest and Rocky Mountain states have been much wetter than normal."
## [3080] "And 2012? Their forecast of 0.48C was well above the actual temperature of 0.40C (based on HADCRUT3 , which was in operation when they made their prediction)."
## [3081] "The issue of drought post 2000 ??? often greatly exaggerated and distorted ??? usually linked with arm-waving ???climate change?? doomsterism ??? misleading publicity on rainfall ??? all have been skilfully brought into play by the proponents of expensive water."
## [3082] "However, close examination of the source of the claimed 97% consensus reveals that it comes from a non-peer reviewed article describing an online poll in which a total of only 79 climate scientists chose to participate. Of the 79 self-selected climate scientists, 75 agreed with the notion of AGW. Thus, we find climate scientists once again using dubious statistical techniques to deceive the public that there is a 97% scientific consensus on man-made global warming; fortunately they clearly aren't buying it."
## [3083] "Pielke Sr response: This is also erroneous. You made no mention of the inappropriate shadow version of the Chapter that I was Convening Lead Author on that you were aware of, nor that it was not the publication of the papers, but the repeated cherry-picking of information from the draft Report that were prematurely presented to the media and to the Senate Committee that were the issue. What can explain this fictional reporting?"
## [3084] "We are dealing with environmental groups, the IPCC, and government leaders like Obama for whom the telling of huge and blatantly obvious lies about global warming is nothing compared to the billions generated by the hoax for the universities and scientists that line their pockets supporting it and industries that benefit by offering ways to capture carbon dioxide or conserve energy by first banning incandescent light bulbs."
## [3085] "During autumn1958, The New York Times predicted both an ice-free Arctic and a new ice age."
## [3086] "I knew it was bad, but interviewing two people now constitutes a ???thorough investigation?? of alleged serious scientific malfeasance? The investigators didn??t even understand that the famous ??? Mike??s Nature trick ???was a clever way of hiding adverse data , a big scientific no-no. They didn??t interview anyone who actually understood the issues."
## [3087] "In contrast, a U.S. Senate report listed 1,000 international climate scientists who dissent from \"man-made climate catastrophe\" claims. More than 31,000 American scientists signed a statement saying they disagree with alarmist predictions. And a 2013 survey found 48% of American meteorologists do not believe humans are causing dangerous climate change."
## [3088] "GHGT effect 15C (-18C) = 33C is wrong. Correct value is 15.0C 15.0C = 0C. Nothing to it. Hansen, Science , 28Aug1981, incorrectly assumed Earth radiates as a black body with emissivity = 1.0, took satellite readings of its average intensity, 239 w/m 2 of surface, and deduced from Boltzmann equation, K = 100(P/5.67e) 0.25 , it radiates at -18C. K = 100(239/5.67(1.0)) 0.25 = 254.8K 273.1 = -18.3C."
## [3089] "Conclusions hinge on the choice of statistic and where you set the benchmark. MM05 obtain a critical value for RE of greater than 0.5 using random red-noise data in a replication of the procedure used in MBH98. Non-existent statistical skill of the models is one of the main arguments in MM05 against the reconstruction method in MBH98."
## [3090] "Whatever may or may not be happening with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC), one thing that you can take to the bank (or insane asylum, as appropriate): contaminated Finnish lake sediments, strip bark bristlecone pines and the hundreds of nondescript Mann 2008-9 tree ring series do not contain any useful information on the past history of the AMOC."
## [3091] "If the deep heat explanation for the Pause were correct (and it is merely one among dozens that have been offered), the complex models have failed to account for it correctly: otherwise, the growing discrepancy between the predicted and observed atmospheric warming rates would not have become as significant as it has."
## [3092] "The models also performed poorly at simulating the warming rate of the sea surface temperatures of the Indian Ocean, Figure 20. The models almost double the warming rate there."
## [3093] "Conclusion : the Sagan/Hansen runaway greenhouse effect is complete nonsense, and if Hansen was a competent climate modeler he would already know this."
## [3094] "Unscientific policies and regulatory grandiosity and excess, wrote Dr. Miller, are not EPAs only failings; neglecting to weigh costs and benefits is shockingly common, noting that The EPAs repeated failures should not come as a surprise because the agency has long been a haven for scientifically insupportable policies perpetrated by anti-technology ideologues."
## [3095] "My Comment: In other words, observations are devalued as being an important part of the assessment of theskill of model predictions. This is such a deviation from the scientific method that I find it puzzling why funding agenciessuch as the NSF do not reject projects that make such a claim. Not only are they ignoring the need to properly validate model skill by using historical data, but they ignore that they also need to validate the model predictions for the CHANGES in climate statistics that result from human and natural climate forcings."
## [3096] "Notwithstanding the considered opinion of Baillie and Wilson that oaks are ???virtually useless as a temperature proxy?? and ???dangerous?? to use in a temperature reconstruction, no fewer than 119 oak chronologies were used in Mann et al 2008."
## [3097] "First, it is difficult to project trends in atmospheric CO2 concentration because the gas is absorbed and released by the ocean, soil and vegetation. Second, it is also difficult to calculate the response of the climate to increased atmospheric CO2 as well as to independently occurring natural climate changes. Current computer simulations of the climate suggest that global warming from increased greenhouse gases may increase the global temperature by somewhere between 0.8 C and 4.5 C by the year 2100, a range too wide to be meaningful.21"
## [3098] "So we build into these models a feedback mechanism that says as more CO 2 is added, the temperature increases non-linearly. We then run these models and we find exactly what we expected to see: increasing CO 2 leads to a positive feedback in temperature!"
## [3099] "In context of the current status of the CAGW-policy debate, moral arguments seem to be in ascendancy as the scientific argument seems to be weakening. Climate change is a complex moral and political issue; thinking that science and scientism holds the answers is unfortunate dogma and ideology among too many scientists."
## [3100] "It is in this context that climate change provided a new opportunity for many governments to legitimize their role, and expand their scope. The formation of the IPCC and its apparent focus on the science of climate change allowed the political establishments to claim science as the basis for proposed climate policies that increased the power of government and curtailed the private sector. The time frame of the projected climate change was longer than earlier green crusades, typically from 50 to 100 years. This will allow policy makers to escape accountability for their misguided policies since they would be out of office by the time the consequences became apparent."
## [3101] "Can climate models simulate ENSO? The answer is also no. Refer to the post Guilyardi et al (2009) Understanding El Nio in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress andchallenges ."
## [3102] "The question is not whether temperatures have risen or whether mankind has affected the climate. Temperatures have always risen and fallen and mankind has always affected the climate. The question is whether we have a problem on our hands. The poor performance of the climate models suggests that the problem is much less than we have been led to believe."
## [3103] "Well then, I would say that pretty much confirms it. For quite some time, I?ve harbored the suspicion that both the popular science and the political activity that create and sustain the belief in Global Warmingism are informed by a retrogressively pagan mindset."
## [3104] "In the face of multi-trillion dollar political insanity, we would do well to remember these scientists are nothing but glorified weathermen. The same as the much derided group of science minded individuals who tell us if it will rain next week. These climatoknowledgists claim to know the average temperature a hundred years in the future within two degrees C, yet cant nail down the temp of St. Louis within 5C in two weeks."
## [3105] "The 2001 IPCC gospel had abolished the medieval warm period by another piece of dubious statistical prestidigitation that was now under investigation by the Attorney-General of Virginia under the Fraud against Taxpayers Act 2000 (gasps of gaping astonishment from some of the environmentalists, who seemed not to have been told this before)."
## [3106] "This is Mann at his best. Claiming random data will fail cross validation is only reasonable by properly doing the statistics. He performed this verification by calibration of end points to temp data and checking the middle in M08, the statistical pass has to take into account the autocorrelation of the proxy data which was done very poorly in M08. The reason I dont answer more clearly is that Even if Mann was perfectly correct, this arm waiving does not address the conclusions in my posts."
## [3107] "A: Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called uptick in temperatures during the 20 th -century. However, in the paper we make the point that this particular feature is of shorter duration than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging procedure, and that it is based on only a few available paleo-reconstructions of the type we used. Thus, the 20 th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions."
## [3108] "\"It should be clear that the science of global warming is far from settled,\" said Dr. Roy Spencer, a former NASA scientist who now co-runs a major satellite temperature dataset at the University of Alabama-Huntsville."
## [3109] "The main excuse was that some of the raw data had been provided to CRU with strings on it preventing release. Surprisingly, within days of Climategate, the Hadley center has announced that it got all of those nasty strings cut, and voila!are now free to release the data. That is, the data they haven't \"lost,\" which supposedly includes most of the raw temperature data they ever collected."
## [3110] "none of the AR4 models simulates the overall brightening of the Earth system. The majority of the models show a loss of radiative energy by the tropical energy in the post-Pinatubo period, suggesting that the models have still not properly captured the feedbacks between temperature change and clouds."
## [3111] "As of 1999, Hansen showed 1934 almost a full degreeFahrenheitwarmer than 1998. How did 1998 retroactivelybecome the hottest year?"
## [3112] "As independent scientific advisors to Senator Fielding have shown , the IPCC-derived science advice that the Australian Government is using as the basis for its carbon dioxide tax legislation is utterly flawed. This finding has yet to be rebutted."
## [3113] "And what cant climate models simulate? ENSO. For further information about climate models failings when trying to simulate ENSO, refer to Guilyardi et al (2009) . Climate models also cant simulate Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and other coupled ocean-atmosphere processes."
## [3114] "Morano followed up by showing slides of quotes by noted climate alarmists making outrageous claims of doom and gloom. At several points the crowd broke out in laughter or were simply astonished, such as when Morano showed them quotes by famous green thinkers saying insensitivity to global warming alarmism is a \"sin,\" and then viewing pictures of climate protestors praying to Mother Earth at a recent march and vigil in New York City."
## [3115] "The aerosol cooling that appears in the Met Office model when climate sensitivity is low is very strong, completely inconsistent with recent observationally-based estimates of aerosol forcing. In fact it is so strong that it would also have prevented most of the temperature rise seen since industrialisation. In other words, the virtual climate produced with these settings of the model doesnt match the real one. This means any scenario in which climate sensitivity is low as indeed the observational studies suggest it is gets downweighted in the final analysis to the extent that it doesnt really show up in the final results. The effect is essentially to rule out low climate sensitivity as a possibility."
## [3116] "Glacier Scientist: I Knew Data Hadn't Been Verified"
## [3117] "Why is this stunning refutation of previous IPCC forecasts of strong warming driven by rising levels of CO2 hidden away in Chapter 10?"
## [3118] "@wattsupwiththat Mann seems to split his time thusly?? 1) Complain about abuse, etc, in the media/journals.\n2) Abuse, name call on twitter"
## [3119] "If a single simulation is not a good predictor of reality how can the average of many simulations, each of which is a poor predictor of reality, be a better predictor, or indeed claim to have any residual of reality?"
## [3120] "Although Svante Arrhenius showed great foresight in many of his comments on energy in 1919, he was wrong in some of his most important predictions: America will run out of oil by 1953 at the latest. Coal reserves will be depleted in England within 50 years and in America within 150 years."
## [3121] "The IPCC's first report on predicted surface temperatures was off by 500%. It's fifth report was off by 300% when compared to real-world data."
## [3122] "The faint grey dashed lines represent the 1?? spread of the model-mean projections. In principle, this spread represents the structural uncertainty arising from l lack of understanding of the physics. In truth, it??s actually something of a bastard value because some models only have 1 run. So,the spread may include a large contribution from ???weather??, which is a random sort of uncertainty??. (That said, this sort of 1?? spread was shown in figure 10.4 in the AR4.)"
## [3123] "Several commenters retaught the scientific principle of \"least significant digits.\" Climateers concoct 'temperature reconstructions' from bacteria fossils, ice samples, and tree rings. Translation: They're guessing. We don't know historical temperatures on a calibrated temperature scale. If you measure five samples to the nearest 5 degrees Celsius and five samples to within 0.1 degree, your conclusions can only be calculated to the nearest 5 degrees. Precise measurements are reduced to the level of the least precise data in the mix. When alarmists extrapolate from bacteria fossils or tree rings, their calculations cannot be precise."
## [3124] "In other words, the model mean represents the central tendency of how the climate science community thinks the oceans should have warmed if they were warmed by manmade greenhouse gases, and, in the real world, the oceans only warmed at half that rate for the past 32+ years. Or to phrase it a little differently, in the models, the warming of the surface of the oceans is forced by manmade greenhouse gases, but in the real world, the ocean surfaces are obviously not as sensitive to manmade greenhouse gases as the climate science community assumes."
## [3125] "Skeptics have well-justified suspicions that the official climate data keepers were ???cooking the books?? to lend whatever support they could to the highest estimates of carbon sensitivity. Around the year 2000, US Mean Temperature data was ???adjusted?? down by 0.1 to 0.2C for years prior to the 1970??s, and upwards by 0.2 to 0.3C for years after the 1970??s, increasing supposed warming by 0.3 to 0.5C."
## [3126] "In his paper The NIWA Seven-station Temperature Series , Dr B. Mullan notes that 238 stations currently report temperatures to NIWA, but prior to the 1930s, a lot fewer observations are available."
## [3127] "This is a good question. It is a still incompletely understood mix of a variety of human caused radiative forcings (e.g. CO2, methane and several other greenhouse gases, land use/land cover change,black carbon (soot), sulphates, and other aerosols) and natual climate variations."
## [3128] "The computers are taught that the temperature rise during the last hundred years is due mostly to the greenhouse effect. If the truth is that only about 10% of the present warming is caused by the greenhouse effect, the computer code must be rewritten"
## [3129] "A paper under open review for Climate of the Past reconstructs summer ] temperatures in Sweden and Finland over the past ~2,200 years and finds temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years ago and the Roman Warm Period 2,000 years ago were about the same as at the end of the 20th century. The paper also shows excellent agreement between the instrumental record since 1800 and the proxy reconstruction, unlike Michael Mann??s hockey stick ???trick to hide the decline?? in proxy temperatures after 1960. The paper adds to the published papers of over 1,200 scientists finding non-hockey sticks demonstrating that the Medieval Warm Period was global and as warm or warmer than the present."
## [3130] "This is why validating the predictions of any theory is so important to the progress of science. The best test of a theory is to see whether the predictions of that theory end up being correct. Unfortunately, we have no good way to rigorously test climate models in the context of the theory that global warming is manmade. While some climate modelers will claim that their models produce the same fingerprint of manmade warming as seen in nature, there really is no such fingerprint. This is because warming due to more carbon dioxide is, for all practical purposes, indistinguishable from warming due to, say, a natural increase in atmospheric water vapor."
## [3131] "It tells us so little while saying so much. The paper tells us, by the figures in Table 2, that sea levels could rise from anywhere between 300 mm and 2200 mm, but Table 3 tells us that, relevant to coastal planning the range could be from 120 mm to 1900 mm."
## [3132] "In a new report, computer expert E. Michael Smith and Certified Consulting Meteorologist Joseph D'Aleo discovered extensive manipulation of the temperature data by the U.S. government's two primary climate centers: the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in Asheville, North Carolina and the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) at Columbia University in New York City. Smith and D'Aleo accuse these centers of manipulating temperature data to give the appearance of warmer temperatures than actually occurred by trimming the number and location of weather observation stations. The report is available online at http://icecap.us/images/uploads/NOAAroleinclimategate.pdf."
## [3133] "Of particular concern to me, is the Bureaus decision of last June, to discard the statistical models that had been used to generate seasonal rainfall forecasts in favour of a general circulation model that has no predictive skill at all. I have documented the absence of skill in the general circulation model in a peer-reviewed paper recently published in the journal Atmospheric Research ( Volume 138, Pages 166-178 )."
## [3134] "And then there is a new breed of academics that are working at the interface of (physical) climate science and social science, trained in the paradigm of environmental studies. These academics have some understanding of the science of climate change. They mostly use the IPCC conclusions (imbuing them with even higher confidence than provided by the IPCC) as a starting point for their (policy, economic, sociological, psychological, political) analysis. As a result, their studies often get caught up in circular reasoning, such as the paper by Anderson and Bows. I find their arguments particularly peculiar in arguing that climate scientists and those working at the boundaries of climate science should dismiss economics."
## [3135] "And the fabricated documents (which Dr. Mann apparently still thinks is factual) which lead to the sort of misinformation Dr. Mann uses, are here: http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2012/02/global-warming-alarmists-resort-to-hoax.php"
## [3136] "The hockey team could have stayed with the temperature according to tree rings but they did not. For this small region of temperature, forty degrees or so, they used conventional thermometry but for the other thousand years or so they used ring separation. That is, they chose to replace the inconvenient later tree data with more suitable data from other sources. The trouble is that the uptick in the twentieth century, the stubby blade of the hockey stick, is the crucial result! So it might be argued, and is by deniers, that to use tree rings up to the year 1960 and then switch to normal thermometry is asking for trouble especially if you dont make it clear that this is what you have done, which is a fair description of the actions of Manns team."
## [3137] "4 Fourth, satellites have measured the outgoing radiation from the earth and found that the earth gives off more heat when the surface is warmer, and less heat in months when the earths surface is cooler. Who could have guessed? But the climate models say the opposite, that the Earth gives off less heat when the surface is warmer, because they trap heat too aggressively (positive feedback). Again, the climate models are violently at odds with reality."
## [3138] "Marcott, Shakun, Clark and Mix did not use the published dates for ocean cores, instead substituting their own dates. The validity of Marcott-Shakun re-dating will be discussed below, but first, to show that the re-dating ???matters?? (TM-climate science), here is a graph showing reconstructions using alkenones (31 of 73 proxies) in Marcott style, comparing the results with published dates (red) to results with Marcott-Shakun dates (black). As you see, there is a persistent decline in the alkenone reconstruction in the 20th century using published dates, but a 20th century increase using Marcott-Shakun dates. (It is taking all my will power not to make an obvious comment at this point.)"
## [3139] "Kevin Trenberth says that one needs exactly seventeen years, and not just ten years, when the global warming is absent to disprove the theory of man-made global warming. This absolute and seemingly authoritative statement misses the fact that there are no sharp numbers here at all. First of all, the humans surely have a nonzero effect on the temperatures. The previous sentence would be valid even if the human contribution to the temperature changes were 1,000 times smaller than the largest natural driver. So we can never prove that the human effect is \"exactly zero\" because this is clearly an invalid statement."
## [3140] "Now, you say, this is the LA Times, so surely they would blame all this on global warming? And, of course, you would be right."
## [3141] "Such modelling underpins the last three propositions, too. Whether warming is going to be dangerous or beneficial for humanity and where it might occur, and what effects any warming would have on rainfall, or storms, or anything else, depend on the outcome of the models. Since the IPCC itself says that the current level of scientific understanding of some of the variables in the climate models is low or very low, it is not clear why we should take especial interest in what the models say. They do not predict, incidentally, but produce scenarios or projections, on an ifthen basis. Scary ones usually make it to the media, which like scary stories. But we have had an awful lot of them in the last few years, and people have begun to hear Matilda crying Fire. (For those younger than me, Matilda is the subject of one of Hilaire Bellocs Cautionary Tales , all worth reading.)"
## [3142] "*if the paleo proxy reconstruction can miss these considerable perturbation downwards, some doubt is thereby introduced as to whether they would catch other similar perturbations in the opposite direction most notably during the so called medieval warm period."
## [3143] "We welcome the acknowledgement by the Panel that the Urban Heat Island effect on surface temperatures records in and around large cities is important but poorly understood. We also welcome the admission that the IPCC ignored the expressions of uncertainty in CRU papers."
## [3144] "This discrepancy matters quite a bit. Wintertime minimum temperatures help determine plant hardiness, for example, and summertime minimum temperatures are very important for heat wave mortality. The use of temperature trends from poorly sited climate stations, therefore, introduces an uncertainly in our ability to quantify these key climate metrics."
## [3145] "My answer is limited to WG1. Instead of trying to be complete, this report should focus much more on the really crucial issues: What are the natural and anthropogenic forcings that influence the climate, what are the relevant feedbacks? How can we decide whether feedbacks are positive or negative? How good are the models? Which models are the best and for what reasons? Many of these crucial issues are now buried deep inside the report instead of highlighted in the summary. Progress would be much faster if supporters of AGWand sceptics would be forced to sit together at the table and discuss where the consensus is and where the discrepancy. This worked when the satellite temperature of Spencer and Christy were challenged by Mears and Wentz; it worked when hurricane specialists sat around the table to come up with a consensus statement."
## [3146] "Now, weve all seen how much skill climate models have shown at hindcasting sea surface temperatures since 1900 and at hindcasting and projecting sea surface temperatures over the satellite era (the last 30 years). A one word summary: None. Refer to the discussions of Figures 15 through 20 in the post Part 2 Do Observations and Climate Models Confirm Or Contradict The Hypothesis of Anthropogenic Global Warming? and the two-part post Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Versus IPCC Hindcast/Projections Part 1 and Part 2 . Or if you prefer, those discussions are also included in my first book If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads?"
## [3147] "Cloud properties can have a significant impact on climate, yet the effects of aerosols like dust is one of the more uncertain components of climate change models. Scientists have long recognized the importance of soluble particles, such as sea salt and sulfates, in creating the droplets that form clouds and lead to precipitation. But until now, the role of insoluble particles mostly dust swept into the atmosphere from such sources as deserts hasn??t figured significantly in climate models."
## [3148] "the reputation of the ?scientific standing? of some of the leading exponents of the global warming doctrine has been heavily undermined recently (the most scandalous example being the case of the ?hockey stick?, which constituted the basis of the 2001 Third Assessment Report of the IPCC);"
## [3149] "From a sampling point of view you cant sample temperature using a min/max thermometer, nor is meteorological maths correct. Lots of awkward problems where pragmatics comes into it. On the other hand a deep ground temperature thermometer is integrating, it can produce valid data except the technology and reading method was poor."
## [3150] "The controversy started in August 2007, when statistician Stephen McIntyre found an error in NASAs temperature data sets that he said caused temperatures in the U.S. from the year 2000 onward to be overstated. After posting his findings on his website ClimateAudit.org , according to Judge Barbara Rothsteins decision, McIntyre emailed them to NASA climate scientists at the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), which quickly revised values in its temperature data set did not issue a press release announcing or explaining the corrections."
## [3151] "Climate researcher Michael E. Mann said his shared interest, with U.Va., in his e-mails means they can be released to him, but not to climate change skeptics. (Tom Jackman The Washington Post) Thats because U.Va. apparently has already given the 12,000 e-mails to Mann himself, though he left Charlottesville years ago. The American Tradition Institute, the conservative group hoping to show that climate change scientists like Mann manipulated their data, argues that U.Va. cant give the e-mails to one person and not another. By giving the emails to Mann, the university has waived any exemptions theyre claiming to the state Freedom of Information Act, ATI says."
## [3152] "The reconstruction also ???reveals a long-term cooling trend of -0.31C per 1,000 years (0:03C) over the 138 B.C.-A.D. 1900 period . . .??This trend isnotreflectedin tree ring width data from ???the sametemperature-sensitive trees.?? Thus,reliance onsuch data (as in the hockey stick reconstruction)??probably causes an underestimation of historic temperatures.??"
## [3153] "OBSERVABLE DATA REBUT CLIMATE COMPUTER MODELS"
## [3154] "It is fair to say that those who had access to powerful computers had no advantage in predicting anything about the long-term behavior of the atmosphere relatively to those who know enough theory (about the atmospheric dynamics) and only use the pencils and paper. The climate models may have \"looked\" realistic, like a computer game, but the correlation between their outcomes and the actual behavior of the climate turned out to be non-existent."
## [3155] "There is little doubt that some players in the climate game not a lot, but enough to have severely damaged the reputation of climate scientists in general have stepped across the boundary into postmodern science. The Climategate scandal of 2009, wherein thousands of emails were leaked from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia in England, showed that certain senior members of the research community were, and presumably still are, quite capable of deliberately selecting data in order to overstate the evidence for dangerous climate change. The emails showed as well that these senior members were quite happy to discuss ways and means of controlling the research journals so as to deny publication of any material that goes against the orthodox dogma. The ways and means included the sacking of recalcitrant editors."
## [3156] "Verification of the forced component of twentieth-century climate trends simulated in model experiments depends on the existence of accurate estimates of these trends in observations. Given the limited sampling in both space and time of the observations and proxy records, these verifications must be handled carefully. In particular, knowledge of the spatial patterns and magnitudes of climate trends over the oceans is hampered by the uneven and changing distribution of commercial shipping routes and other observational inputs as well as different approaches to merging analyses of the observations (Rayner et al. 2011)."
## [3157] "In ???The scandal of fiddled global warming data,?? Christopher Booker points out how one of the graphs of US surface temperature records published by NOAA, one of the worlds most influential climate records, has been ???shamelessly manipulated.??"
## [3158] "EXAMPLE: WHY DIDNT THE CONSENSUS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS PREDICT TIMING, EXTENT AND DURATION OF THE CALIFORNIA DROUGHT?"
## [3159] "According to these results there wont be any significant global warming between now and 2100 provided my analysis is realistic. Is it? Well, its admittedly speculative. But then, so are the climate models the IPCC uses to make its official global warming predictions. And my models fit observations a lot better too."
## [3160] "Even the catastrophic scenarios painted by enthusiasts clash. In one extreme case, the Greenland ice sheet and much of the polar ice caps could melt, raising the global sea level by as much as 30 feet, inundating billions in coastal areas. (Keep in mind, though, that such a scenario would take decades to play out, unlike a tsunami.) But hold on: A variant of catastrophe theory holds that warming might cause the Greenland and polar ice sheets to thicken and bring on a new ice agethe scenario of the movie The Day After Tomorrow. Incidentally, the sea level would fall by several feet, creating new opportunities for beachfront development."
## [3161] "Looking at the latest global temperature on Roy Spencers graph, I was struck how half the graph is warmer than the rest. Zealots usually pick on this and ask why have 9 out of the last 10 elections days been warmer than they were, or some other meaningless statistic."
## [3162] "One of the more difficult concepts is RegEM, an algorithm developed by Tapio Schneider in 2001 . Its a form of expectation maximization (EM) which is a common and well understood method for infilling missing data. As weve previously noted on WUWT, many of the weather stations used in the Steig et al study had issues with being buried by snow , causing significant data gaps in the Antarctic record and in some burial cases stations have been accidentally lost or confused with others at different lat/lons. Then of course there is the problem of coming up with trends for the entire Antarctic continent when most of the weather station data is from the periphery and the penisula, with very little data from the interior."
## [3163] "Queen's University Belfast has data on tree rings that goes back millennia, in particular, to the Medieval Warm Period. QUB researchers have not analyzed the data (because they lack the expertise to do so). They also refuse to release the data. I have been trying to obtain the data, via the UK Freedom of Information Act, since April 2007. The story is scandalous. In light of all the slander going around, maybe I should add this: I used to do mathematical research and financial trading on Wall Street and in the City of London; since 1995, I have been studying independently (for more details, please see my web site); I have received no payment of any kind from any entity for any work that I have done since 1995. Douglas J. Keenan"
## [3164] "How the Hadley Centre spins the data on non-warming"
## [3165] "Why, such a thing is hard to believe; (link fixed!) ...the UKs General Medical Council has found that Andrew Wakefield the founder of the modern antivaccination movement acted \"dishonestly and irresponsibly\" when doing the research that led him to conclude that vaccinations were linked with autism. Despite this and other sarcastic headlines, I'm not suggesting all scientists are unethical and/or incompetent. But I do believe peer review systems (not to mention, hiring standards) are failing us when those who engage in political activism are permitted to even remain within the walls of research institutions. I was going to write that the bullying, obfuscation, data manipulation, public activism (and shoddy science journalism ) we've witnessed in the name of \"climate\" research is just the tip of the iceberg , but that's not quite accurate. It's more like a template."
## [3166] "Climate Crisis, Inc., jealously guards this power and money train. The IPCC, the EPA, and NOAA spend billions in tax dollars to publish horror stories about runaway temperatures and looming disasters. Mike Mann sues anyone who disparages him or his work. Sheldon Whitehouse and Jagedish Shukla demand that anyone who disputes manmade disaster claims be prosecuted for \"climate denial.\""
## [3167] "In fact, the US government alone spent over $106 billion in taxpayer funds on alarmist climate research between 2003 and 2010. In return, the researchers refuse to let other scientists, IPCC reviewers or FOIA investigators see their raw data, computer codes or CO2-driven algorithms. The modelers and scientists claim the information is private property, even though taxpayers paid for the work and the results are used to justify energy, job and economy-killing policies and regulations. Uncle Sam spends billions more every year on renewable energy programs that raise energy prices, cost jobs and reduce living standards."
## [3168] "If even such nonsense models score that high the reported 51% of validation RE of MBH98 are not very meaningful. The low CE and R2 values moreover point to a weakness in predicting the shorter time scales. Therefore, the reconstruction skill needs a re-assessment, also on the background of the McIntyre and McKitrick, 2005b claim that it is not even significantly nonzero."
## [3169] "I said at that time that this claimed accuracy, somewhere around five thousandths of a degree (0.005C), was well highly unlikely."
## [3170] "The glitter of the Nobel overshadows the inconvenient news reported last week that a British court of law labeled Gore's movie as partisan political propaganda, pointing out 11 different errors of fact or scientific judgment, and prohibiting its screening in British public schools without a disclaimer of these defects. The Nobel will be one more quiver in Gore's arsenal of intransigent moral authority by which he refuses to debate any aspect of the subject and declares the entire matter \"settled.\" It's never a good sign when politicians declare a scientific matter settled; we all remember how well that worked out for the Vatican when they told Galileo 400 years ago that astronomy was settled. It is even more problematic to suggest that climate change is not a political issue, but a moral issue, but then to demand massive political interventions in the economy to fix the problem."
## [3171] "In short: The very existence of a troposphere makes the whole CO2 driven radiative IR model daft. All that tropospheric CO2 can only close an already closed radiative window in the troposphere and contribute to the convection that is already dominant. BTW, in deep winter with a strong polar vortex, the tropopause can reach ground level near the poles (especially the South Pole). In that context, then, it can enhance the radiative heat dump to space. But warming? In any mid-latitudes especially? Not a chance."
## [3172] "The part I really don??t like in all of this is that once again, all of their claims are built on computer models. But what I don??t find is any serious testing of their whiz-bang models against things like the global or the CET temperature and rainfall records. In fact, I don??t see any indication in any venue that any computer models are worth a bucket of warm spit when it comes to rainfall. Computer models are known to perform horribly at hindcasting rainfall, they do no better than chance."
## [3173] "A rapidly growing number of Americans are coming to distrust ?scientific? climate report conclusions that emanate from authoritarian government and institutional sources ? often with good reason. Such skepticism has arisen in part from revelations of conspiracies among influential researchers to exaggerate the existence and threats of man-made climate change, withhold background data and suppress contrary findings evidenced in the ?ClimateGate? scandal."
## [3174] "The Polar Bear Specialist Group didn't invite Taylor to their conference. More disturbingly, they explicitly said that the reason had nothing to do with the quality of Taylor's science. Derocher, a boss of the AGW-contaminated polar bear specialists, wrote an explanation to Taylor:"
## [3175] "The Fakegate scandal provides opportunity for U.S. congressman to push common Democrat lies and the climate change hoax - the Heartland Institute challenges congressman about falsehoods"
## [3176] "The spatial structure and dominant time scales of natural variations differ across models (see discussion of Fig. 5). Additionally, coupled climate models produce a range of responses, in space and time, to anthropogenic radiative forcing (Fig. 8). Such differences in model estimates of internal variability and response to external forcing limit our understanding for the potential of the decadal climate predictions."
## [3177] "Instead of saying clearly that the models prove that humans cause global warming, they have to talk with forked tongues with such phrases as: This experiment showed that the projections of climate models are consistent with recorded temperature trends over recent decades only if human impacts are included."
## [3178] "5) And in March this year, scientists at the British Antarctic Survey quantified just how badly the predictions had failed, An Initial Assessment of Antarctic Sea Ice Extent in the CMIP5 Models"
## [3179] "Without a large uptick in temperatures in the next few years, the modelers really have to go back to the drawing board (or they need to discover another negative forcing to keep the models on track to reality)."
## [3180] "JC comment: the possibility that multidecadal natural variability is a major driver of rainfall variability does not seem to be considered. The poor performance of the climate models somehow gives rise to greater alarm about the future. Go figure."
## [3181] "~Meanwhile, back on Planet Earth, the divergence between the climate models and reality is ever greater . In other news, it may not all be the fault of your carbon footprint :"
## [3182] "Then at BBC on Dec 5 , where the IPCC WG2 author denied any problem:"
## [3183] "This ensemble output suggest that it isi probable that the temperatures will be warmer than currently (they are very cold now), but there is a lot of uncertainty. Precipitation should be light, but a few ensemble members are fairly wet. Winds are modest."
## [3184] "Of course, the chance of editors at Science allowing such a response paper to get published is virtually zero. The editors at Science choose which scientists will be asked to provide peer review, and they already know who they can count on to reject a skeptics paper."
## [3185] "Many of the doubt-inducing climate scientists and their media acolytes attribute this rising skepticism to the stupidity of Americans, philistines unable to appreciate that there is \"a scientific consensus on climate change.\" One of the benefits of the recent Climategate scandal, which revealed leading climate scientists manipulating data, methods, and peer review to exaggerate the evidence of significant global warming, may be to permanently deflate the rhetorical value of the phrase \"scientific consensus.\""
## [3186] "The AGU has an official position statement on global warming. The statement is currently being rewritten by a committee of 14 people. The existing AGU climate statement turns the speculative claims of global warming hysterics into what many readers might mistake for the prudent judgment of serious scientists. The current statement was last revised in 2007. It will be interesting to see if the new statement acknowledges an additional 5 years of failure to warm. The 2007 statement does not invoke the extreme weather catastrophe story, probably because the extreme weather story was still in its infancy in 2007."
## [3187] "Accounting for wavelength effects will likely improve climate models"
## [3188] "Corrupting science is bad. Al Gore promotes spending by governments around the globe to finance his multibillion dollar venture capital fund, KPCB, which owns 16 GreenTech firms and Google. Providing government grants for fraudulent science research promoting caps on CO2 production is a conflict of interest. I personally found flawed science in peer reviewed papers in Science and Proceedings of The Royal Society and published my findings in a letter to HP in January 2009."
## [3189] "If the physics are so simple, why are temperatures below Hansens zero emissions Scenario C?"
## [3190] "The three Australian researchers report that (1) \"most models show substantial deviations from the observations and from each other in most domains,\" that (3) \"the CMIP models tend to largely overestimate the effective spatial number degrees of freedom,\" that (4) the models \"simulate too strongly localized patterns of SST variability at the wrong locations with structures that are different from the observed,\" and that (7) \"the mismatch between the models is as big as the mismatch with the observations.\""
## [3191] "Finding that the estimated historic increase in carbon dioxide was not enough to cause dangerous warming on its own, the modellers guessed that atmospheric water vapour would amplify, by a factor of three, any initial carbon dioxide-forced warming."
## [3192] "Note: A climate delusionist, is someone who increases their confidence that humans caused the 20th century warming at the same time as their predicted warming fails to materialise and almost none of their predicted trends for extreme weather prove to be true. Rising confidence at a time your predictions are moving false is a clear sign of delusion."
## [3193] "In the words of the author, the above results \"suggest that the accelerated urbanization process in recent decades may have substantially contributed to the warming of the urban air observed in large cities in Mexico.\" Once again, therefore, we are reminded of the huge magnitude of the urban heat island effect, even compared to the global warming of the past century, which climate alarmists claim was unprecedented over the past twenty centuries, as well as the urban heat island's dependence upon the nature of the urban landscape. These observations suggest to us that it is essentially impossible to adequately adjust surface air temperature measurements made within an urban area to the degree of accuracy required to correctly quantify background or rural climate change, which may well be an order of magnitude smaller than the perturbing effect of the city. Reviewed 29 March 2006"
## [3194] "?? certain ABC reporters seem to be suffering from Stockholm Syndrome when it comes to interviewing scientists promoting climate alarm. They appear so besotted they are failing to properly scrutinize experts and authoritative documents like IPCC assessments and government reports. They put their faith in authority without bothering to properly verify the facts, the way journalists did in the good old days. In doing so they act as echo chambers spreading misconceptions and exaggerations in the process."
## [3195] "Climate change: A new religion complete with evangelists, tithes, indulgences and superstitions"
## [3196] "In short, most AOGCMs do not simulate the spatial or intra-seasonal variation of monsoon precipitation accurately."
## [3197] "Even without the scandal, the very idea of scientific consensus should give us pause. \"Consensus,\" according to Merriam-Webster, means both \"general agreement\" and \"group solidarity in sentiment and belief.\" That pretty much sums up the dilemma. We want to know whether a scientific consensus is based on solid evidence and sound reasoning, or social pressure and groupthink."
## [3198] "Under the Data Quality Act, material which is considered \"influential scientific information\"--in other words, is likely to influence public policy or private sector decisions--is also subject to the scrutiny of scientific validation. The National Assessment on Climate Change (2000) and EPA's Climate Action Report 2002 base their analyses of the potential impacts of climate change on two computer models that are incapable of providing reliable predictions. Efforts to validate these two models actually exposed them as less capable at predicting climate impacts than a table of random numbers. The law prohibits this."
## [3199] "The other day in the Herald , Mr Chris Barton took up the topic of global warming in an article headed Climate debate adrift on rising tide of lunacy ."
## [3200] "With respect to the simulations of the 20 th Century, it appears the modelers did change some forcings during the mid-20 th Century flat temperature period, in an effort to force the models to show more of a decrease in temperature between 1944 and 1976. Yet the models still have difficulties simulating the rates at which global surface temperatures warmed and cooled since 1901. Compared to the weighted average of HADSST3 and CruTem4 data (used to approximate HadCRUT4 global surface temperature data), the models are still only able to simulate the rate at which global surface temperatures rose during the late 20 th Century warming period of 1976 to 2006. They still cannot simulate the rates at which global surface temperatures warmed and cooled before 1976."
## [3201] "But the results will be worth it. Once the millennial records of changes in oceans, land, and air are sorted out, they can be used to fine-tune computer climate models that take all the same parts of the puzzle into account, says Trenberth. And once those models can be made to reproduce the past climate changes, they can begin forecasting what might happen next. No one knows how accurate such models will be, but it's certain they will need a lot of data and computer power to take into account all the variables that influence the Earth's climate."
## [3202] "Here is aclear-cutexample of advocacy by a scientist, Marcia McNutt , who also happens to be the Chief Editor of Science : The beyond-two-degree inferno . Read the whole thing, its only about 600 words.I cite here the passages that I particularly want to comment on:"
## [3203] "The fact that all the world's complex and expensive climate models can't explain climate change since the last glacial period ended is one of the little talked about embarrassments of climate science. In a new study, soon to be published in PNAS, a team led by Zhengyu Liu, a researcher at the Nelson Center for Climatic Research and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, has come out of the modeling closet to examine the model-data inconsistency. They took as their baseline a study by Shaun Marcott et al. previously published in Science. The composite proxy record generated by those researchers is shown below."
## [3204] "While it might not have been obvious, I am trying to come up with a quantitative method for correcting past temperature measurements for the localized warming effects due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. I am generally including in the ???UHI effect?? any replacement of natural vegetation by manmade surfaces, structures and active sources of heat. I don??t want to argue about terminology, just keep things simple."
## [3205] "It??s interesting that the very first incident of hide-the-decline in IPCC literature was in a graphic prepared by the UK Met Office."
## [3206] "In yesterdays posting, we saw how an excursion of 80% of record ranges would provide more than enough tracking error to cause biased analysis. (Tracking error of the excursion from a full average for temperatures in a city such that the analysis done by folks using The Reference Station Method or comparing a Grid Box in one time to a box made from different thermometers in another time could easily have large errors)."
## [3207] "It's microsite influences : barbecue devices etc. often sit in the stations and Cook says that it doesn't matter. In reality, a huge portion of the surface stations was affected by such things and the accumulated errors often exceed 1 degree Celsius. A priori, the effect of the microsite influences may be both warming and cooling. In reality, because of the increasing energy (and heat) used by humans, the actual impact of the microsite influences almost always overstates the warming trend. But I do think that the paper that Cook cites is realistic, assuming that it didn't use some wrong adjustments along the way, and the microsite effects could actually be as small as the picture indicates."
## [3208] "Unfortunately, facts like these have not stopped peak oil diehards and anti-hydrocarbon activists in and out of the Obama administration. They have become master fear mongers and propagandists, advancing their \"just say no\" opposition to North American fossil fuel energy and using lawsuits, lobbying, fabrications and demonstrations to block drilling, fracking, the Keystone XL pipeline, coal mining and burning, and countless other projects, while promoting subsidies, favoritism, and exemptions from environmental laws for wind, solar and biofuel programs."
## [3209] "New proposal from NASA JPL admits to spurious errors in current satellite based sea level and ice altimetry, calls for new space platform to fix the problem."
## [3210] "Climate Change Hoax: Key U.S Congressman Caught Spreading Democrat Lies & Rumors - Same Old, Same Old"
## [3211] "When it comes to climate change, ad hominems are all but ubiquitous. They are even smuggled into the way the debate is described. The common label \"denier\" is one example. Without actually making the argument, this label is supposed to call to mind the assertion of the \"great climate scientist\" Ellen Goodman: \"I would like to say we're at a point where global warming is impossible to deny. Let's just say that global warming deniers are now on a par with Holocaust deniers.\""
## [3212] "THREE senior Japanese scientists separately engaged in climate-change research have strongly questioned the validity of the man-made global-warming model that underpins the drive by the UN and most developed-nation governments to curb greenhouse gas emissions.\"I believe the anthropogenic (man-made) effect for climate change is still only one of the hypotheses to explain the variability of climate,\" Kanya Kusano told The Weekend Australian.It could take 10 to 20 years more research to prove or disprove the theory of anthropogenic climate change, said Dr Kusano, a research group leader with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science's Earth Simulator project."
## [3213] "Not that climate modelers are unaware of the problems with their creations. Numerous papers have been published that detail problems predicting ice cover, precipitation and temperature correctly. This is due to inadequate modeling of the ENSO, aerosols and the bane of climate modelers, cloud cover. Apologists for climate modeling will claim that the models are still correct, just not as accurate or as detailed as they might be. Can a model that is only partially correct be trusted? Quoting again from Roy Spencer??s recent blog post :"
## [3214] "Similarly, climate alarmists are now scrambling to find new shelter from the stress coming from a public that increasingly realizes their doom-and-gloom predictions of climate chaos are based on shoddy data, faulty computer models, and perhaps outright deception. The alarmist scientists have put themselves in a climate cataclysm box, and are desperate to protect their reputations, predictions, and funding."
## [3215] "IPCC overblows Bangladesh doomsday forecasts in 2007 4AR."
## [3216] "I put this up actually as an indicator of what climate science is trying to say about the Antarctic. It is apparently based entirely in fantasy world at this point, computer models predicting doom for penguins is certainly not a good thing cept the hockey team. I suspect that when temperature trends in the Antarctic are substantially lower than Climatology wants (Hansen is an example of an advocate and he does want it), these models will need to be updated. After the taxation and regulation but just in time to save the penguins."
## [3217] "This, unfortunately, is not atypical. Under gatekeeper Neal Lane , the Baker Institute has refused to allow fair, open debate about natural versus anthropogenic climate forces and has championed sky-is-falling government activism. For example, Lane/Baker:"
## [3218] "IPCC produced a graph presumably showing global warming rates on the increase (see Figure 1). The graph uses a well known trick. In any length of a rugose (noisy in appearance) data set, one will encounter short portions steeper (flatter or of opposite sign) than the length as a whole. If the steeper portion happens to be at the end of the data set, it will appear that the rate of change is accelerating when it is just the rugosity of the data. For example, the HadCRUT4 data series ending June, 1913 had 50, 25 and 15 year cooling rates of -0.42, -0.83 and -1.70 C per century respectively. There was no predictive power in observing that cooling rates were strengthening. In fact, the world warmed after that, to about the year 1940, when it began to cool again."
## [3219] "It is difficult to explain the whole climate-change panic except in religious terms. There has arisen among some in the environmental community what can only be understood as a cult of Earth worshipit is against energy, against mining, against land use, against industry, and against industrial society. Climate change is a useful tool in that fear of catastrophe can be used to compel economically destructive actions that would otherwise be unacceptable. It is not just carbon-based energy they hate, but nuclear as well, which indicates the true nature of the faith. Alternatives such as wind and solar can never be effective, but they are useful as Judas goats."
## [3220] "Then again, our understanding of the rate of the precession of the equinoxes is limited to about 10,000 years of human history. That isnt even one full cycle (of 24,000 years). So perhaps the answer is simply that its easy to see a 24,000 year periodic function that isnt really there. That the actual function is some more open process that only looks cyclical when viewed in a very short time frame. A Hundred Million years is a very long time Could the whole solar system simply be in a flat spin of 24000 years from some prior event long ago? I just dont know."
## [3221] "Here is another one a map of worldwide CO2 distribution as measured by a NASA satellite that appears to me to be almost directly counter to the consensus. Red represents the higher concentrations."
## [3222] "It is because both contain stations like Las Vegas that have been compromised by changes in their environment, that station itself, the sensors, the maintenance, time of observation changes, data loss, etc. In both cases we are plotting data which is a huge mishmash of station biases that have not been dealt with."
## [3223] "He writes, \"t is quite wrong to say that our NAS study endorsed the credibility of the IPCC assessment report. We were asked to evaluate the IPCC \"Summary for Policymakers\" (SPM), the only part of the IPCC reports that is ever read or quoted by the media and politicians. The SPM, which is seen as endorsing Kyoto, is commonly presented as the consensus of thousands of the world's foremost climate scientists. In fact, it is no such thing. Largely for that reason, the NAS panel concluded that the SPM does not provide suitable guidance for the U.S. government."
## [3224] "2. One would expect greater agreement with recent data in more recent years. But since 1997 the difference in temperature anomalies has widened by nearly 0.3 celsius GISSTEMP showing rapid warming and HADCRUT showing none."
## [3225] "In the real world, there has been a temperature rise of 0.3C in the last 35 years as measured by satellites. This is well short of what is predicted by global warming theory as practiced by the CSIRO, Bureau of Meteorology and others."
## [3226] "CEI Response: FactCheck neglects to mention that the study it cites is based on only three years of data, from 2002 to 2005. This is strange, because FactCheck later argues, quoting a caveat in the study on Greenland's glaciers that we referenced in our ad, that \"the 11-year-long data set developed here remains too brief to establish long-term trends.\" If 11 years is too brief to establish a long-term trend, then three years must be an even less adequate basis for trend analysis. Apparently, FactCheck wants people to be frightened by three years of data but not reassured by 11 years of data. This confirms our ad's basic point: in general, media coverage is biased in favor of climate alarmism."
## [3227] "The story was widely covered at the time and the result has been relied upon to marginalize criticism of the reliance of IPCC multiproxy studies on strip bark bulges or tree ring chronologies developed by CRU. Now it turns out that the much vaunted claim to have a ???validated?? no-dendro reconstruction for the past 1300 years was merely an illusion ."
## [3228] "First, as clearly documented on the Anthony Watts website, many of the observing sites are not at the same height above the ground (i.e. not at 1.5m or 2m). Thus, particularly for the minimum temperatures, which vary more with height near the ground, the height matters in patching all of the data together to create long term temperature trends. Even more significant is that the trend will be different if the measurements are at different heights. For example, if there has been overall long term warming in the lower atmosphere, the trends of the minimum temperature at 2m will be significantly larger than when it is measured at 4m (or other higher level). Including minimum temperature trends together will result in an overstatement of the actual warming."
## [3229] "Observed Trend Less Than Climate Model Simulations"
## [3230] "The plots of this figure are provided simply because they account for the totality of the data contained in our Ocean Acidification Database Tables ; and it can be seen from the plots that they all extend into the region we have labeled ???far, far beyond the realm of reality.?? Therefore, in Figure 10 below, we present only the portions of the plots that extend into and through the domain of what we have denominated ???the warped world of the IPCC.??"
## [3231] "The \"gap\" stayed bridged-at least until Climategate when Saltzman's neat and tidy theory began to unravel. An unsuspecting world merely had to read the leaked emails to see how the Emperor's Climate Clothes were crudely stitched together by heady tribalism among opportunist cronies."
## [3232] "To understand the scale of the revision that had taken place compare the two graphs below. The one on the left is diagram 7c from page 202 of the 1990 IPCC report in which the Medieval Warm Period was portrayed as clearly warmer than the present. On the right is the Hockey Stick graph from the 2001 IPCC report in which the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age have all but disappeared and the recent climate history is dominated by a rapid temperature rise in the last 20th century."
## [3233] "Here . Update : In a related post, Al Fin writes : Can you imagine? The rain forests keep losing the same 150 million ha of rainforest every ten years!...The clueless mainstream media continues to barrage a hapless public with disaster stories of rain forest devastation accompanied by catastrophic human-caused global warming."
## [3234] "Update: This does not mean that there has been no warming, just that it has been exaggerated. Satellites have shown warming over the last 30 years and are unaffected by the same biases and issues as at the CRU. But the whole point is the exaggeration. Skeptics generally dont think there is no warming from mans CO2, just that it is greatly exaggerated. And this matters. Ten degrees of warming vs. a half degree of warming over the next century have very very different policy implications. See my video here for more."
## [3235] "The entire industry of \"climate science\" was created out of virtually nothing, by means of a massive influx of funding that was almost universally one-sided in its requirement that its recipients find evidence for man-made climate changenot investigate whether or how much mankind had caused climate change."
## [3236] "This set of examples shows that the HADCM3L cannot produce a unique solution to the problem of the climate energy state. No set of model parameters is known to be any more valid than any other set of model parameters. No projection is known to be any more physically correct (or incorrect) than any other projection."
## [3237] "Source:?? Popular TechnologyGlobal warming alarmists like to distort the scale on temperature graphs to exaggerate the mild warming of less than a degree since the end of the little ice age. (IPCC +0.74 ??C)NASS GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (1880-2009)Realist:Alarmist:Source:NASS GISS Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (1880-2009)This entry was postedon Wednesday, October 13th, 2010 at 2:23 pmand is filed under Uncategorized.You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site."
## [3238] "Missing stations, missing data, adjustments based on differences in temperature measurements and rerunning the adjustments all t get more precise results? I couldnt adjust data that had product or legal (environmental) liability without documenting each change. I was also subject to regular audits by customers and regulatory agencies."
## [3239] "An all of the above energy policy that is rigged against consumer-driven dense energy and rigged for government-enabled dilute energy;"
## [3240] "Irvine, Calif. Two new UC Irvine papers reach markedly different conclusions about why methane, a highly potent greenhouse gas, unexpectedly leveled off near the end of the 20th century. They appear today in the journal Nature."
## [3241] "The London Daily Mail published a chart that, as they say, reveals how 95 % certain estimates of the Earth heating up were a spectacular miscalculation. Comparing actual temperatures against the IPCCs 95% certainty projections, the lines track closely until recent years, at which point the line representing the observed temperatures is about to crash out of the boundaries of the lowest projections. They were supposed to climb sharply after 1990."
## [3242] "These maps and graphs make it clear just how brazen the fraud of the Hockey Stick is."
## [3243] "The scale of global warming was exaggerated due to temperature distortions for Russia accounting for 12.5% of the world??s land mass. The IEA said it was necessary to recalculate all global-temperature data in order to assess the scale of such exaggeration."
## [3244] "The researcher - who hails from the Active Cavity Radiometer Solar Irradiance Monitor Laboratory and Duke University at Durham, North Carolina (USA) - states that by not properly reconstructing the 20-year and 60-year natural cycles found in earth's surface temperature record, \"the IPCC GCMs have seriously overestimated the magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution to the recent global warming.\" And as a result, with respect to the future, he says that whereas the IPCC models project a warming of 1.0-3.6??C by the end of the current century, his model suggests a global warming in the range of 0.3-1.2??C by 2100, which is considerably more in line with the real -world and observation -based assessments of earth's climate sensitivity that were empirically derived several years ago by Idso (1998) and more recently by Lindzen and Choi (2009, 2011)."
## [3245] "Most, though not all, models overestimate the observed warming trend in the tropical troposphere over the last 30 years, and tend to underestimate the long-term lower stratospheric cooling trend. {9.4.1, Box 9.2, Figure 9.8}"
## [3246] "Unfortunately for the modelers, they underestimated the warming of the surface of the extratropical North Atlantic (Figure 10), and overestimated the warming in the extratropical North Pacific (Figure 11), though the differences are not badcompared to whatweve seen elsewhere."
## [3247] "Referring to their Figure 2, the climate models clearly underestimated the early 20 th Century warming, from about 1910 to the early 1940s. The models then clearly missed the cooling that took place in the 1940s but then overestimated the cooling in the 1950s and 60sso much so that Risbey et al. (2014) decided to erase the full extent of the modeled cooling rates during that period by limiting the range of the y-axis in the graph. (This time climate scientists are hiding the decline in the models.) Then theres the recent warming period. Theres one reason and one reason only why the models appear to perform well during the recent warming period, seeming to run along the mid-range of the model spread from about 1970 to the late 1990s. And that reason is, the models were tuned to that period. Now, since the late 1990s, the models are once again diverging from the data, because they are not in-phase with the real world."
## [3248] "It should come as no surprise that the models did overestimate the warming of the sea surface temperatures of the tropical oceans over the past 32+ years. See Figure 7. In fact, the models overestimated the warming by a wide margin. The data indicate the sea surface temperatures of the tropical oceans warmed at a not-very-alarming rate of 0.06 deg C/decade, while the models indicate that, if the surfaces of the tropical oceans were warmed by manmade greenhouse gases, they should have warmed at 3 times that rate, at 0.19 deg C/decade. For 46% of the surface of the global oceans (about 33% of the surface of the planet), the models tripled the observed warming rate."
## [3249] "4. The statement by Ramanthan and Feng that IPCC models suggest that 25% (0.6C) of the committed warming has been realized as of now illustrates that they assume that the climate system has an equilibrium radiative balance, when in reality it does not. Moreover, they are using the IPCC models to evaluate how out-of-radiative-balance the climate system is, yet those models fail to adequately simulate the radiative feedbacks, nor even have all of the first order climate forcings. In the 2005 National Research Council report (on which Dr. Ramanathan was a co-author), it is written on page 100 that"
## [3250] "We are not on the winning side, but looking back, we can afford to say that since the launching of the massive global warming propaganda at the UN Rio Summit in 1992 and since its subsequent acceptance worldwide, several things happened that suggest some degree of optimism:"
## [3251] "Yet to date no empirical, theoretical or numerical method, complex or simple, has yet successfully specified mechanistically either how the heat generated by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas enrichment of the atmosphere has reached the deep ocean without much altering the heat content of the intervening near-surface strata or how the heat from the bottom of the ocean may eventually re-emerge to perturb the near-surface climate conditions that are relevant to land-based life on Earth."
## [3252] "As Albert Einstein once said, a good theory predicts things in advance anda bad theory needs additional adjustments after each new discovery. The problem with the anthropogenic warming theory is: it cannot sustain anything new. For every new and unexpected climate or weather trend aspecial sub-theory must be developed, and it doesnt matter if they often completely contradict each other."
## [3253] "Detailed addenda accompanying ITSSD FOIA requests filed with EPA and DOC-NOAA during March May 2014 strongly suggest that the peer review science processes EPA and DOC-NOAA had employed in vetting the USGCRP and other federal and IPCC agency assessments supporting the EPAs Endangerment Findings did not comply with U.S. law. In other words, such peer review processes did not satisfy Information Quality Act and relevant OMB, EPA and DOC-NOAA implementing IQA guidelines standards applicable to highly influential scientific assessments (HISAs)."
## [3254] "Some have asked me why I have not updated my climate blog in a while. Frankly, the climate debate has become like the movie Groundhog Day, with the same handful of scientists releasing the same flawed studies making the same mistakes. What used to be exciting is frankly boring. I still blog here on updated climate news, and perhaps the IPCC will give us new things to write about soon, but for now most of my climate work will just be making appearances and presentations (let me know if you have a large group, I don't charge any sort of fee)."
## [3255] "The Benestad, R. E., and G. A. Schmidt 2009 and Lean, J. L., and D. H. Rind 2009 cannot both be correct in their conclusion regarding the magnitude of solar forcing on the Earths climate. They could both even be wrong based onsuch studies as"
## [3256] "8 pm: Jaeah Lee, a nice fact-checker from Mother Jones, has a genial online video in which she tries (unsuccessfully) to figure out the trick to hide the decline, eventually being tricked by Briffa."
## [3257] "The debate over human-induced global warming is far from settled. Listening to radical environmental activists and Vice President Al Gore, however, would give one the impression that the science is settled and humans are to blame for the warm temperatures in 1998. Recent weather events, however, could give the opposite impression."
## [3258] "To my knowledge, ???hide the decline??, as a technique, was used in every subsequent spaghetti graph using the Briffa reconstruction except one ??? the Zero Order Draft of IPCC TAR presented to the Lead Authors in Arusha in September 1999. This spaghetti graph ??? which didn??t hide the decline ??? went over like a lead balloon with IPCC ??? thus the busy emails of September 1999, which I??ve previously discussed. The IPCC spaghetti graph in its First Order Draft (October 1999) adopted a hide-the-decline strategy modeled on the techniques ???pioneered?? in Jones et al 1999 and Briffa and Osborn 1999 (though Mann varied the method somewhat.)"
## [3259] "Now they claim they predicted their failures all along, declare every weather event to be unprecedented, and claim that CO2 somehow heats the depths of the ocean where temperatures cant be measured."
## [3260] "Circle around little tail indicates recent warming that has caused worldwide panic and mass hysteria."
## [3261] "Once again, climate models have shown they are good for one thing and one thing only: to display how poorly they simulate Earths climate."
## [3262] "Climate alarmists want the newspaper and television media to ignore this information and the skeptics who might present it. Bill Nye the science guy recently asked MSNBC to link all weather events to climate change. Just say the words climate change when you talk about this winters cold and snow, he begged. A new study shows how widespread these repulsive practices have become."
## [3263] "At that time, those FOI requests referred to in the emails had been long since submitted. The stonewalling evident in the emails was well entrenched. The skeptics were trying to find enough information to attempt replication of The Teams work but were having difficulty getting that information. Also, the public was almost entirely in the dark about there being any other possible side of the story, in spite of the work of Christy, Spencer, Richard Linzen, Willie Soon, and others, including many studies on the supposedly non-existent Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age that showed those two events were actually global, as opposed to Manns assertion that they were only regional."
## [3264] "Once again we have numerous climate model results that deviate significantly from real-world measurements; and we see no improvement in this regard between the CMIP3 set of models and the newer and supposedly improved CMIP5 models. This is not what most rational people would call progress. References"
## [3265] "As a result, during multidecadal periods when El Nio events dominate, like the period from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s, global surface temperatures and ocean heat content rise. In other words, global warming occurs. There is no way global warming cannot occur during a period when El Nio events dominate. But projections of future global warming and climate change based on climate models dont account for that naturally caused warming because the models cannot simulate ENSO processesor teleconnections."
## [3266] "But the problem not arise last week. While the issue has only recently become acute, it has become acute because of accumulating failure during the AR5 assessment process, including errors and misrepresentations by IPCC in the assessments sent out for external review; the almost total failure of the academic climate community to address the discrepancy; gatekeeping by fellow-traveling journal editors that suppressed criticism of the defects in the limited academic literature on the topic."
## [3267] "Why has nobody other than the IPCC been able to see the actual raw data collected by researchers which supposedly proves global warming is taking place? Simple: IPCC officials at the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit destroyed the underlying numbers after they'd created their alarmist graphs, so that no skeptics could identify any methodological or mathematical errors they might have made. Since the work was funded by the governments of England and the United States, destruction of the data is destruction of government property, a criminal act which can and should be prosecuted."
## [3268] "We conclude that the first explanation offered by Santer et al. provides the most parsimonious explanation for the divergence between surface and lower troposphere temperature trends, based on recent research suggestive of biases in the surface temperature record. Our findings suggest that the supposed reconciliation of differences between surface and satellite datasets has not occurred."
## [3269] "Warmies never learn. They seize on inconvenient/unpleasant weather and claim will make it permanent/worse. Then, when their predictions fail spectacularly, which they always do, its because people expect the wrong thing. Flimflam Flannery claimed several of Australias major cities would be out of water and abandoned years ago due to climate change (we were experiencing periodical drought at the time) then Brisbane (one of the soon to be out of water cities) flooded spectacularly and the other states dams filled too."
## [3270] "A problem that Alley and other paleoclimate scientists refer to as the insensitivity of models or the model-data gap sounds like a technical issue but really is more fundamental. It means that the models are unable to reproduce accurately the numerous episodes of abrupt change that show up clearly in many environmental archives around the world. The reasons for this failure are not yet known, but the implications are plain enough. Until these highly sophisticated numerical representations of Earths climate systemrunning on the worlds most powerful computersare able to get the past right, what reason is there to believe they can get the future right? (page 183)."
## [3271] "The coupled ocean-atmosphere processes that drive multidecadal variations in sea surface temperatures will be more of a problem. The sea surface temperature record is globally complete only during the satellite era the last 30 years. Further, the subsurface temperature and salinity records of the oceans are globally complete for only the past decade or so; moreover, the subsurface data are riddled with problems. It will be decades before the climate science community can hope to begin to have a data-based understanding of subsurface ocean weather and its interactions with ocean-atmosphere processes."
## [3272] "???It??s funny,?? says Jason. ???When it??s colder than usual (the last few years) it??s called natural phenomenon but when we get a hot spell or warmer than usual temperatures it??s not a natural phenomenon?? ?? .it??s ???Global Warming?? or the better yet catch phrase ???Climate Change.??"
## [3273] "So the initial moment for comparisons isn't mentioned. But another thing that isn't mentioned is the convention with which we define and measure the global mean temperature e.g. when it comes to the altitude (or depth in the sea) where the contribution of each square meter is measured and dozens of other important subtleties. Also, the surface weather stations produce warming trends that are something like 50% higher than those measured by the satellites."
## [3274] "This divergence is already approaching a full degree Celsius, which already demonstrates that the models are more fairy tale than science. But in the coming years that divergence will only grow and grow, ultimately not only discrediting but falsifying the theory of anthropogenic, catastrophic global warming."
## [3275] "The Earths climate system is highly nonlinear: inputs and outputs are not proportional, change is often episodic and abrupt, rather than slow and gradual, and multiple equilibria are the norm. While this is widely accepted, there is a relatively poor understanding of the different types of nonlinearities, how they manifest under various conditions, and whether they reflect a climate system driven by astronomical forcings, by internal feedbacks, or by a combination of both."
## [3276] "But the company he keeps numbers just six in New Zealand and 142 worldwide according to the ICSC which keeps a register of climate experts who challenge the hypothesis of dangerous human-caused climate change."
## [3277] "Temperatures have not risen nearly as much as almost all of the climate models predicted, Dr. Roy Spencer, a climatologist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, told Fox News January 28. Their predictions have largely failed, four times in a row... what that means is that it's time for them to re-evaluate."
## [3278] "Here??s the MBH98 PC1 (bristlecones) again marking 1934. Given that bristlecone ring width are allegedly responding positively to temperature, it is notable that the notoriously hot 1934 is a downspike."
## [3279] "You will also be struck by how cunning these nasty fraudsters are. Science these days is so very highly specialized that a scientist looking at science outside his specialist field is just as much in the dark as a layman with no scientific knowledge at all. If a couple of dozen in different sub-disciplines conspire together to make up bad science and that is what Climategate shows the UN's climate panel did then the vast majority of the thousands of scientists participating worldwide will simply be unaware that they are being deceived, and they will be even more easily deceived than the layman, because they will tend to trust colleagues in their own profession."
## [3280] "Given the strenuous efforts EPA has taken to hide these emails,and what we have learned to date, it is more than fair to assume this is more than petulant retaliation, but hidingsomething awfullydamning."
## [3281] "This statement is a further example of the narrow and closed viewpoint illustrated in the released CRU e-mails. I agree with Michael that we have detected human climate forcing effects. To label me as a skeptic, however, is completely wrong (as Andy knows; e.g. see and see )"
## [3282] "Here . Excerpt: All these well-meaning (if misguided) wannabe critter-savers are being discouraged or are misdirecting their efforts because no one has explained the difference between reality and PlayStation climatology. We do not know and probably never will know what the climate will be in 30 years time. All we really know is that there is an equal chance next year will be either warmer or cooler. We have no evidence of accelerating sea level rise. We have no knowledge of impending disaster or temperature-related catastrophe. What a waste of everyones time and effort."
## [3283] "1. Hansen made three forecasts, Cook picked scenario B which Hansen described as a reduced linear linear growth of trace gases . Obviously that has not happened and is not the correct one. He should be comparing against scenario A. Joe Romm says that greenhouse gases have been accelerating super-exponentially ."
## [3284] "An argument can in fact be made that if adjustments this large are needed to make the raw records correct then the raw records were far too heavily distorted to have been used to begin with."
## [3285] "You might notice that there has been a move towards creating an economic basis for the mitigation of climate change Stern, etc. More to the point, you only need to look to Malthus to find a classical political economist making ecological arguments, many years ago. Our argument is that ecologists/greens/environmentalists posit the inevitability of catastrophe to legitimise their political agenda, and to close down debate about its terms, and therefore to close down the possibility of alternatives to the problems it identifies. We might ask, therefore, whether environmentalism, at least insofar as it influences the mainstream really has ecological science as its antecedent, or whether its politics is prior to the science. We think the politics of environmentalism are prior to the science, but that it is expedient to the existing political establishment, as are any other forms of the politics of fear."
## [3286] "I havent waded through GHCN and GISS adjustment methodologies to see exactly what they are doing and am nowhere near to replicating their methodologies. (Wouldnt it be nice if they just posted their codes so one could see exactly what they were doing, instead of having to decode obscure and poorly written methodological descriptions?) But lets say that the KNMI adjustments are right and that the GISS and GHCN adjustments are wrong in this spot check. Then that would appear to indicate that the GHCN and GISS methodologies were wrong in some way and there would be no reason to assume that they were randomly wrong."
## [3287] "Had satellites gone up in the 1930s, instead of the late 1970s, we would still be doing the global cooling scam, rather thanthe global warming scam."
## [3288] "To pound the square peg of climate policy into the round hole of the Clean Air Act, EPA has to play lawmaker and effectively change the statute. This breach of the separation of powers only compounds the constitutional crisis inherent in EPAs hijacking of fuel economy regulation and climate policymaking."
## [3289] "Governments are going to have the same temptation with global temperature, mismeasuring it to make it appear to be rising faster than it really is."
## [3290] "One limitation of the authorss findings is that many of their climate models are severely flawed when simulating the period and magnitude of ENSO. The misrepresentation of ENSO dynamics in such models may preclude an accurate separation of dynamic and thermodynamic coupling effects. Moreover, most climate models erroneously predict the existence of an intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) a band near the Equator where the trade winds from the two hemispheres converge in the South Pacific, in addition to the real one observed north of the Equator. This problem is known as double ITCZ bias. ."
## [3291] "This is exciting news, particularly given that we disappeared in a cloud of blue steam decades ago, we survived the 1970s ice age, we survived the global famine of the 1980s, we survived the ozone hole and acid rain, we survived the permanent drought, and we survived the drowning of Manhattan."
## [3292] "The climate models upon which the anthropogenic climate change hypothesis is based have no such record of success. This is not their fault. They are new and they make predictions about the climate, which can be observed only over a period of decades, shorter periods being mere weather. A new model that predicts weather patterns in 50 years' time cannot be said to have been tested until 50 years have elapsed. Even then, we will have only one data point, which is hardly enough to confirm any theory."
## [3293] "JUNEAU, Alaska (AP) A federal wildlife biologist whose observation in 2004 of presumably drowned polar bears in the Arctic helped to galvanize the global warming movement has been placed on administrative leave and is being investigated for scientific misconduct, possibly over the veracity of that article. And then there's that problem with the sheep..."
## [3294] "These comments were not acknowledged in the Final Report, Climate Change The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990) which only listed four individual comments from New Zealand."
## [3295] "Other scientists contest the IPCC assumptions, on the grounds that the climatological effect of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide is trivial and that the climate is so complex and insufficiently understood that the net effect of human emissions on global temperatures cannot be forecasted."
## [3296] "Weve all been looking at the Yamal (Steve Mosher named)treemometer ring width data. Yamal is a tree ring series with a huge hockey stick blade used in and likely to be highly influential in a lot of serious studies which demonstrate the unprecedentedness of recent temperatures. When Steve McIntyre replaced 12 of the hockey stick creating proxies (the dirty dozen) with equally valid schweingruber proxies the blade of the hockey stick disappears along with the unprecedentedness. Of course the boys at Real Climate made a big stink about it but notably missed any specific criticism of the methods or data chosen. However, in this post I looked at the methods of RCS standardization and the effects it has on the series."
## [3297] "The difference between these two regions is that the water from the Great Canadian Lakes was ready to flow to the Atlantic while the Greenland ice sheet would have to melt first. It is not quite the same thing although I understand that a brain at the Gore level simply can't be enough to comprehend such things."
## [3298] "Leiserowitz points to the damage caused by \"Climategate\" and \"Glaciergate.\" He is partially right; those scandals did cause damage. Unfortunately the damage was inflicted on climate scientists."
## [3299] "The IPCC central tendency is illustrated: it lies outside the uncertainty intervals which corresponds to rejecting the hypothesis that the IPCC projections are correct."
## [3300] "It looks to me like the error band on precipitation makes it completely impossible to know what CO2 might or might not be doing. It can only be an article of faith. Since we have no clue, really, how precipitation changes happen over the PDO / AMO cycles to 2% of variation, how can we say if any warming or cooling is CO2 induced or precipitation dependent?"
## [3301] "???The leap from one-dimensional to three-dimensional models is an important step,?? said Wolf. ???Clouds and sea ice are critical factors in determining climate, but the one-dimensional models completely ignore them.??"
## [3302] "It will, however, give Gore one more excuse to fly across Europe in his private jet on one junket after another, emitting copious amounts of greenhouse gases while delivering sanctimonious harangues about climate change."
## [3303] "The maps below show how many more weather stations are feeding Australia??s temperature record from 1930 to 2010, with scant recording possible of the interior where most of the January 2013 heatwave occurred."
## [3304] "The next figure shows compares core counts in the Vaganov and Briffa 2009 networks. The Vaganov network has 400-500 cores over most of the 20th century. In contrast, the living tree portion of the Yamal network in Briffa (2000) and Briffa et al 2008 had only 17 cores (10 in 1990; 5 in 1995). The somewhat expanded Limited Hangout network of Briffa 2009 still contained only 11-12% of the number of cores of the Vaganov network and thus falls far short os using ???all?? the data. (It didn??t even use the Polar Urals data.)"
## [3305] "So do I think IPCC scientists are policy advocates? They seem mainly concerned with preserving the importance of the IPCC, which has become central to their professional success, funding, and influence. Most dont understand the policy process or the policy specifics; they view the policy as part an parcel of the IPCC dogma that must be protected and preserved at all cost, else their success, funding and influence will be in jeopardy."
## [3306] "Mr. Mann??s chart was both a scientific and political sensation. It contradicted a body of scientific work suggesting a warm period early in the second millennium, followed by a \"Little Ice Age\" starting in the 14th century. It also provided some visually arresting scientific support for the contention that fossil-fuel emissions were the cause of higher temperatures. Little wonder, then, that Mr. Mann??s hockey stick appears five times in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change??s landmark 2001 report on global warming, which paved the way to this week??s global ratification???sans the U.S., Australia and China???of the Kyoto Protocol?? ."
## [3307] "We would reject the multi-model mean trend as too warm relative to the observed trend if we based our judgement on trends computed starting in 2001, 2002. For these cases, the observed trend falls below the lower 95% confidence interval for the multi-model mean."
## [3308] "Kevin of course being Trenberth himself. Now the believer crowd will see it as a cheap shot but Trenberth deserves this when he is centrally involved in an editors resignation. He may be correctly involved, but he has been caught over the line of reason in the past. The point here is, that for a senior editor to resign over an issue of disagreement indicates what is likely a huge amount of behind the scenes pressure on the editors to prevent publication. Even if the paper is truly horribly flawed, a resignation!!??? Come on. Why not wait for the retractions and publish those?"
## [3309] "Man-made global warming was fabricated around the year 2000 by people with no morals who were willing to tamper with data in exchange for funding."
## [3310] "in a rather interesting fashion. Changes have been made to the data resulting in an increase in the rate of reported sea level rise by nearly a millimeter per year."
## [3311] "The report reveals that there were no actual temperatures left in the computer database when NASA/NCDC proclaimed 2005 as \"the warmest year on record.\" The NCDC deleted actual temperatures at thousands of locations throughout the world as it changed to a system of global grid points, each of which is determined by averaging the temperatures of two or more adjacent weather observation stations. So the NCDC grid map contains only averaged, not real, temperatures, giving rise to significant doubt that the result is a valid representation of Earth temperatures."
## [3312] "Another pet peeve of mine is when people on the warming side tell me not to listen to the skeptics as they have no peer reviewed papers and they have vested financial interests and then in the same breath they tell me about something they learned at an Al Gore presentation."
## [3313] "Quoting the nine Australian researchers, \"there is evidence to reject one model as unsuitable for making climate projections in the region, and another two models unsuitable for analysis of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).\" And they add that \"many of the systematic model biases in the mean climate in CMIP3 are also present in the CMIP5 models,\" specifically identifying \"biases in the position and orientation of the SPCZ and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, as well as the spatial pattern, variability and teleconnections of the West Pacific monsoon, and the simulation of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation.\" In addition, they indicate that unresolved problems also prohibit successful modeling of the region's cold tongue and the West Pacific monsoon, further adding that there are still \"several regions in the world where CMIP5 models show significant differences to observed trends in temperature and mean sea level pressure.\""
## [3314] "Only the federal government and crony confederates could come up with a scam where we are forced to pay more to remove something that doesnt really matter, use it for something else they are trying to regulate out of existence, and then release that same bad stuff into the air where it was supposed to be dangerous."
## [3315] "The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to below 1.4 C per century half of what the IPCC had then predicted."
## [3316] "Gilders is making a weak attempt to neutralize skeptics. He hits imaginary ???deniers?? he can??t name and pretends that real skeptics would agree with him, even as he exposes that he is religiously irrational."
## [3317] "Predictions of changes in bushfire 60 years hence are thus equivalent to alchemists attempts to turn lead into gold. These are National Tea-leaf Readers, and they are not only afforded nice salaries and all the accoutrements, but given space in our national news as if they had something remotely useful to say."
## [3318] "A big part of this data tampering is implemented by making up monthly temperatures at stations where USHCNsays they have no thermometer data. The amount of fabricated data is increasing exponentially, and at current rates of fabrication 100% of the data will be fake by the year 2035 i.e. there will be no actual thermometer data used after that date. NCDC says that their software whichdoesthis, is working as expected."
## [3319] "On 23rd June 1988, James Hansen went before the Senate having allegedly** went in the night before and opened all the windows, So that the air conditioning wasnt working inside the room it was really hot . Hansen then stated falsely that he was 99% certain that the recent temperature rise was caused by humans a figure so utterly wrong it is even rejected by the IPCC."
## [3320] "The climate policy adopted by many governments is still in its infancy. The publications provided by an international group of scientists (the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , IPCC) have encountered skepticism, especially since some of their researchers have shownthemselves to be fraudsters (Betrger). In any case, some governments?? publicly stated targets are far less scientific, but rather politically endorsed. It seems to me that the time has come that one of our top scientific organisations should scrutinise, under the microscope, the work of the IPCC, in a critical and realistic way, and then present the resulting conclusions to the German public in a comprehensible manner ?? ."
## [3321] "Prof Phil Jones told the University of East Anglias boss that he did not delete any of the emails that were released from the university last November, despite apparently saying he would in one of those emails."
## [3322] "Whether it is the President or the Pope, or the countless politicians and bureaucrats, along with multitudes of \"environmental\" organizations, as well as self-serving \"scientists\", all aided by the media, a virtual Green Army has been deliberately deceiving and misleading the citizens of planet Earth for four and a half decades. It won't stop any time soon, but it must before the charade of environmentalism leaves us all enslaved by the quest for political control over our lives that hides behind it."
## [3323] "The groups lawyer Terry Sissons told the High Court at Auckland today that NIWA could have obtained inaccurate New Zealand average temperatures due to sudden site relocations and by regularly changing temperature gauging instruments."
## [3324] "Like the global-warming crowds movement toward ever more labored explanations for why the weather isnt behaving according to Al Gores scary computer-model scenarios, Earth Day keeps evolving. It began in 1970 as a well-meaning conservation effort, and even inspired some needed laws to clean up the air and rivers."
## [3325] "In the field of governance, things are not a great deal better in the UK. We have seen a second instalment of the CRU Climategate e-mails, which tell us little new but confirm the culture of shiftiness, obstruction and the stifling of debate seen in the first instalment. We still hear from time to time the mantra of, The science is settled, the debate is over from politicians and even from some scientists."
## [3326] "Man Made Global Warming Is A Complete Fraud"
## [3327] "In effect, the only thing which conceptually allows our temperature to measurably rise with todays minimal CO2 forcing is the lag in thermal transfer to these huge thermal masses. Oceans are said to mix on over-century timescales. Water and ocean, conduction and convection effects are stated by modern science to be too slow and therefore dangerous warming can occur. Interestingly, land thermal mass seems to have a very high transfer rate and is quite nearly ignored. I dont believe this very significant aspect of global warming has been vetted thoroughly and you shouldnt either."
## [3328] "The fraudulent documents created by the IPCC modelers generate massive increases in carbon dioxide emissions over the next century."
## [3329] "Uncertainty in the amount of warming combines with uncertainty in the pace of warming. From an instantaneous doubling of atmospheric CO2 content from the pre-industrial base level, some models would project 2C (3.6F) of global warming in less than a decade while others would project that it would take more than a century to achieve that much warming."
## [3330] "then it should come as no surprise that the IPCCs climate models without anthropogenic forcings cant simulate the warming observed during the late warming period of 1976-2000 either, Figure 5."
## [3331] "Faced with the embarrassment that the snowfall predictions were all wrong, advocates who claim increased CO2 from fossil fuel use will cause global warming are desperate to keep the global warming hype alive, says Ken Gregory, a director of Friends of Science. After all, it has become a multibillion dollar 'low-carbon' industry. So, global warming activists now say warmer weather causes more snowfall! Their predictions change with every weather event - one day warming causes more snow and the next day it causes less snow."
## [3332] "In various parts of the world, the climate debate displays different features. The US and other parts of the non-European Anglo-Saxon world feature highly polarized and politicized debates along the left/right divide. In Europe, all major political parties are still toeing the \"official\" IPCC line. In both arenas, with a few notable exceptions, skeptical views even from well-known scientists with impeccable credentials tend to be ignored and/or actively suppressed by governments, academia and the media."
## [3333] "Former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt called for a full and independent investigation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, its practices and suspect science. The IPCC no longer has integrity or credibility, he said, and some of its researchers \"have shown themselves to be fraudsters.\""
## [3334] "The authors note that \"the standard interpretation of global climate data is that extraneous effects, such as urbanization and other land surface effects, and data quality problems due to inhomogeneities in the temperature series, are removed by adjustment algorithms, and therefore do not bias the large-scale trends.\" What was done"
## [3335] "We can also ask what the weather (thus climate) would be like if we were to slow, hold constant, or increase pumping carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. But we have the same problem as before: well never know if the model is right because all well have is the atmosphere that exists, and the knowledge that everything, from worms to the sun, cause changes in it."
## [3336] "In a cooling climate, we would expect to see more than 10 record lows per day, and fewer than 10 record highs per day. The USHCN record consists of more than 1000 stations, so we should expect to see more than 10 record highs per day. Throw in the UHI effects that Anthony and team have documented, and we would expect to see many more than that. So no, record high temperatures are not unusual and should be expected to occur somewhere nearly every day of the year. They don??t prove global warming ??? rather they prove that the temperature record is inadequate."
## [3337] "Youd think it would be huge news that the greenhouse scare is over. Instead, the news sections of Science and Nature are behaving in their predictable fashion. In Nature , Quirin Schiermeier wrote this may worsen the greenhouse effect."
## [3338] "The data are seriously compromised and fill in with homogenizing makes it worse, not better. It hides what is really happening and smoothes out divergent and disjoint obviously incongruent series to blend them into a fictional common warming that does not exist."
## [3339] "No model has ever successfully predicted any future climate sequence. Despite this, future projections for as far ahead as several hundred years have been presented by the IPCC as plausible future trends, based on largely distorted storylines, combined with untested models."
## [3340] "Environmental scientists are cast in the role of priests, the trust in their narrow expertise extended to other areas of fact and value. Most scientists dont like that. Some quite enjoy it. The concept of planetary boundaries seems to be designed to make environmental scientists the final arbiters in politics, much like the Pope was once in Europe and the Guardian Council is in Iran."
## [3341] "Climate models suggest they should be increasing, 110 years of real world data indicate otherwise?? Read More"
## [3342] "It also appears that other experienced and reputable scientists such as Hans Jelbring, Harry Dale Huffman and many others have previously pointed out the errors of the climate consensus in failing to give due weight to the Gas Laws which represent much longer established settled science than the relatively recent speculations about the supposed thermal properties of greenhouse gases."
## [3343] "Without a successful validation procedure, no model should be considered to be capable of providing a plausible prediction of future behaviour of the climate."
## [3344] "In fact, scientists can no more accurately predict long-range future climate shifts than they can predict earthquakes, volcanic eruptions or drought; in the same way science cannot definitively account for past ice ages, meteor strikes or the Big Bang. Theories, yes; facts, no."
## [3345] "Pat Michaels was at my presentation yesterday and pointed out at minute 56 that one of the reasons temperature representations have changed is because of the inclusion of southern oceans into the global temperature record."
## [3346] "Speaking methodically with flashes of humor I always feel that when the conversation turns to weather, people are bored. he said a basic problem with current computer climate models that show disastrous increases in temperature is that relatively small increases in atmospheric gases lead to large changes in temperatures in the models."
## [3347] "There are many different types of uncertainty that are encountered in the modeling of the climate system, and it is important to understand and characterize and quantify them all. One pervasive type of climate uncertainty is what has frequently been referred to as the unforced or natural variability of climate. This characteristic type of uncertainty is encountered when running a interactive atmosphere-ocean climate model for thousands of years with no change in the external forcing (other than standard diurnal and seasonal change in solar radiation) exhibits variability (by several tenths of a degree) in the global annual-mean surface temperature, essentially over all time scales."
## [3348] "The temperature record resulting from the weather stations differs from the graphs generated by the satellites not by too much but substantially enough for the satellites to completely deny the claim that 2014 had a chance to have been the warmest year, and so on. But the differences between the satellite and weather-station-based temperature records probably mean that these two methodologies measure \"substantially different quantities\" (quantities with inequivalent definitions) that shouldn't be assumed to behave equally, and that's why they don't behave equally. The disagreement between the two methodologies isn't necessarily due to any \"big error\" on either side."
## [3349] "In the West, it has become popular for many activists such as Naomi Oreskes to claim that there is no peer-reviewed literature that contradicts the fashionable theory of the so-called global warming. Well, that's very far from reality as everyone who is familiar with basic research directions in this field knows very well. Whether or not we think that all these papers are right or not, it's a fact that there is even peer-reviewed literature that argues that we're gonna experience global cooling."
## [3350] "Because the model simulations have difficulties reproducing the mean patterns of Arctic circulation and thickness,' as Kwok writes in his concluding paragraph, ' he says his analysis suggests there are 'considerable uncertainties in the projected rates of sea ice decline even though the CMIP3 data set agrees that increased greenhouse gas concentrations will result in a reduction of Arctic sea ice area and volume.' But with all the problems he finds with the models, who really knows how good those latter projections are?"
## [3351] "No more excuses, Mr. Gore. Have the guts to defend your views. Show some cojones."
## [3352] "The worlds climate scientists are almost all employed by western governments. They usually dont pay you to do climate research unless you say you believe manmade global warming is dangerous, and it has been that way for more than 20 years. The result is a near-unanimity that is unusual for a theory in such an immature science."
## [3353] "The Science Media Centre soon followed with an attempt at expert reaction to new report on climate sensitivity published by the Global Warming Policy Foundation . The SMCs approach to climate is less about getting clear scientific advice to the public debate than it is about getting rehearsed soundbytes from scientists into the press as quickly as possible."
## [3354] "Having read too many Gore, Pachauri, Quinn and other Deep Ecology treatises, LunaBomber James Lee held Discovery Channel employees hostage and denounced the TV station for its support of \"parasitic human infants,\" before being shot by police. His website and actions underscore how demented some Earth Liberation and global warming fanatics have become."
## [3355] "Hmm. No lepers bell there. But perhaps Tim Flannery , then, is introduced as a paleontologist and mammalogist, not a climatologist who by definition works closely with people who pay him to scare us about global warming:"
## [3356] "We are dealing here with something more like religion and less like science."
## [3357] "When global warming alarmists claim winters will become warmer and free of snow, yet their predictions are proven false for 20 years in a row, at some point logical people come to realize that global warming alarmists are selling snake oil."
## [3358] "Working Group I depends entirely on climate models and 98% of them didnt predict the pause."
## [3359] "The errors in the record exceed by a wide margin the purported rise in temperatures of 0.7 degrees C (about 1.2 degrees F) during the twentieth century, Watts said. See for yourself at Surfacestations.org"
## [3360] "The climate change fraud that is now unravelling is unprecedented in its deceit, unmatched in scopeand for the liberal elite, akin to 9 on the Richter scale. Never have so few fooled so many for so long, ever."
## [3361] "Remember that all these samples were collected the year of their exposure along receding ice cap margins . So, out of the 145 samples, 135 have been dated to less than 5000 years ago, and over half are as recent as the MWP. Yet the study ignores all the evidence from these, and uses a tiny amount of data from one small corner of the survey area to justify its claim of Unprecedented warmth in the Arctic."
## [3362] "6) Thought control. In addition to vilifying climate chaos skeptics, alarmists are determined to control all thinking on the subject. They are terrified that people will find realist analyses and explanations far more persuasive. They refuse to debate skeptics, respond to NIPCC and other studies examining natural climate change and carbon dioxide benefits to wildlife and agriculture, or even admit there is no consensus."
## [3363] "Biggest Player. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the scientific panel whose reports contain the work of Glimategate figures and are highly politicized and publicized to increase fear of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW): \"imminent catastrophic man-made climate change.\" Many horrendously expensive and needless local, state, federal and international policies have flowed from IPCC's flawed reports."
## [3364] "To summarize, a pro-AGW paper being peer reviewed by other climate scientists is probably (like Briffa appears to have been) being considered favorably because of its results, is being reviewed by reviewers who know and often have co-authored with the papers writer, likely contains undisclosed data treatment that influences the result, is being reviewed by reviewers who do not have the mathematical background to spot subtle statistical errors, and is being judged on conformity to accepted practices in the discipline in a discipline that is evolving so quickly that the accepted practices themselves are not well validated."
## [3365] "Despite this, no changes were made to the text. In fact, when V.K Raina challenged the 2035 date in his report on Himalayan glaciers for the Indian government, the IPCC accused him of mischief and defended 2035 as a good estimate of when the glaciers would be gone."
## [3366] "Not only are the 14 proxies used in O&B; not independent of prior studies, in fact, they are composed entirely of proxies repeatedly used in previous studies. Astonishingly, 2 of the 14 proxies (2 of only 10 in the Medieval Warm Period) are bristlecone/foxtail pines, despite the fact that these are precisely the proxies that have most been called into question in connection with the work of Mann et al."
## [3367] "Global warming alarmists in full retreat as skeptics attack greenhouse theory"
## [3368] "Why did they overestimate ice loss from these glaciers by 50%? The impact of rock debris that covers certain glacier tongues (4) and protects them from solar radiation (and thus from melting) was not taken into account in the previous work. Moreover, their sampling was limited to longitudinal profiles along the center of a few glaciers, which geometrically led to overestimation of ice loss."
## [3369] "The substantial study, by Peter Lilley MP, is the most thorough analysis of the Stern Review so far undertaken. It takes the IPCCs view of the science of global warming as given, but points out that Sterns economic conclusions contradict the views of most of the worlds leading environmental economists and even the economic conclusions of the IPCC"
## [3370] "Unfortunately, the total surface heat and water fluxes are not well observed. Normally, they are inferred from observations of other fields, such as surface temperature and winds. Consequently, the uncertainty in the observational estimate is large of the order of tens of watts per square metre for the heat flux, even in the zonal mean."
## [3371] "Junk Science: Climate Activists' Credibility Gap"
## [3372] "LaFramboise further found that one third of the literature reviewed and cited by the IPCC in its 2007 report wascontrary to IPCC chief publicist Ragendra Pachauris pronouncementsnot even peer-reviewed, and in many cases included citations of promotional literature devised and distributed by environmental activist organizations."
## [3373] "This article, by ABCs environment editor, Sara Phillips (pictured), encapsulates all that is wrong with the national broadcasters treatment of the climate debate. Written, as always, from a position of belief, and institutionally critical of any dissent, Phillips attempts to show that scepticism is crumbling in the face of ever-mounting evidence to the contrary:"
## [3374] "The figure above also highlights the strong divergences between the IPCC model and the temperature, which are explicitly studied in my papers proving that the IPCC model are not able to reconstruct any of the natural oscillations observed at multiple scales. For example, look at the 60-year cycle I extensively discuss in my papers : from 1910 to 1940 a strong warming trending is observed in the data, but the warming trending in the model is far lower; from 1940 to 1970 a cooling is observed in the data while the IPCC model still shows a warming; from 1970 to 2000, the two records present a similar trending (this period is the one originally used to calibrate the sensitivities of the models); the strong divergence observed in 1940-1970, repeats since 2000, with the IPCC model projecting a steady warming at 2.3 o C/century , while the temperature shows a steady harmonically modulated trending highlighted in my widget and reproduced in my model."
## [3375] "The scientists will start monitoring temperatures for some unstated reason. During the first 25 years, the scientists continue to support all 10 thermometers, fixing broken ones running QA checks etc. But after a while, someone cuts their budget. Inspecting the data, the scientists decide they don??t need to record the temperatures from all 10 thermometers. To save manpower, they can record the temperature from with 5: one from each continent. Because mountain tops stations are difficult to maintain, they stop recording the mountain top thermometers. (Meanwhile a secret band of conspirators does record those, so we here in toyland can look at those temperatures.)"
## [3376] "Yet Gore has received a Nobel Prize for a book (and film) that even sympathizers can see is filled with factual errors. Gore's book and film are so tendentious and inaccurate that they do little to advance his position."
## [3377] "One of the most cited and used historical surface temperature databases is that of NASA/Goddard's GISS. This is not some weird skeptics site. It is considered one of the premier world temperature data bases, and it is maintained by anthropogenic global warming true believers. It has consistently shown more warming than any other data base, and is thus a favorite source for folks like Al Gore. These GISS readings in the US rely mainly on the US Historical Climate Network (USHCN) which is a network of about 1000 weather stations taking temperatures, a number of which have been in place for over 100 years."
## [3378] "Sceptics have seized upon the mistakes to cast doubt over the validity of the IPCC and have called for the panel to be disbanded."
## [3379] "Does 'climate change' mean 'changing data'? \"So what is the probability of this effort consistently increasing recent temperatures and decreasing older temperatures? From a statistical viewpoint, data recalculation should cause each year to have a 50/50 probability of going either up or down thus the odds of all 70 adjusted years working in concert to increase the slope of the graph are an astronomical 2 raised to the power of 70. That is one-thousand-billion-billion to one. This isn't an exact representation of the odds because for some of the years (less than 15) the revisions went against the trend but even a 55/15 split is about as likely as a room full of chimpanzees eventually typing Hamlet. That would be equivalent to flipping a penny 70 times and having it come up heads 55 times. It will never happen one trillion to one odds (2 raised to the power 40)."
## [3380] "This is a zero dimensional model (global average). It has many faults, but seems to not be too far off. Analysis of output (just as though they produced real data) from most of the GCMs give about these same values for A and B, etc. This simple model probably includes the lapse rate feedback, etc. It does not include snow/ice feedback which would raise the sensitivity slightly. Finally, the fits do not properly take the tropics (all-important, unfortunately half the planet??s area) into account. Lindzen would argue that it fails miserably there. The clouds muck up the tiny seasonal and latitudinal signal in the tropics and this could change the result. I cannot deny it."
## [3381] "The 2 C Maximum Temperature Goal: German Climate Scientist Admits It's A Bogus Public Relations Stunt"
## [3382] "4. Given that many of these models predicted warming trends well before China surpassed the United States as the largest GHG emitter, and given the fact that emissions continue to grow at a pace beyond what was originally incorporated into the models, shouldnt the warming be far worse than what was predicted in the worst case scenarios rather than well below predictions?"
## [3383] "The climate models that try to emulate the greenhouse effect but that don't reproduce the correct chemistry are simply wrong models because the chemistry that involves the greenhouse gases on either side of the formulae is completely crucial for the greenhouse effect. Because O??? and CH??? are also greenhouse gases, it is damn important to know whether they exist in the atmosphere and whether they are being destroyed and whether they will be destroyed in the future (and how much). So Schmidt's statement Precisely zero of the IPCC AR4 model simulations ( discussed here for instance) used an interactive ozone module in doing the projections into the future. implies that you should now throw precisely all IPCC AR4 models to the trash bin or, to say the same thing more moderately, to work very hard to correct the bug and to introduce the previously neglected important effect that was pointed out by Dr Katie Read et al."
## [3384] "Did Lord Monckton not accept that we could quantify the CO2 feedback? This point came from the professor. Well, replied Lord Monckton in one of his most crushing responses, perhaps the professor can quantify it, but the IPCC cant: its 2007 gospel gives an exceptionally wide range of answers, from 25 to 225 parts per million by volume per Kelvin in short, they dont know."
## [3385] "A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research in essence reveals climate models are not capable of reproducing the observed climate of the past century, much less the future. According to the paper, \"few models reproduce the strong observed warming trend from 1918 to 1940,\" there are \"large differences\" in the forcings and feedbacks used in various models and that some of these are \"unrealistic.\" In other words, the key inputs and assumptions of the models are not known with reasonable certainty - ergo GIGO . The paper also finds that predicting the range of \"future climate change by weighting these models based on their 20th century is not possible.\"Translation: climate models are little more than very expensive computer fantasy games that cannot predict the future nor even replicate the past."
## [3386] "I am for a carbon tax. I also believe that the Climategate emails revealed, to an extent that surprised even me (and I am difficult to surprise), an ethos of suffocating groupthink and intellectual corruption?"
## [3387] "Canadian researcher Steve McIntyre discovered earlier this week that the IPCCs recent report on alternative energy which asserted that it was possible to convert the world to 80% green energy by 2050 if politicians would simply tax conventional sources and spend billions on alternative sources was lifted largely from Greenpeace reports."
## [3388] "The climate models overestimate temperature rises due to CO 2 by at least a factor of three."
## [3389] "Structural uncertainty is rarely quantified in context of subsequent model versions. Continual ad hoc adjustment of GCMs(calibration) provides a means for the model to avoid being falsified new model forms with increasing complexity aregenerally regarded better."
## [3390] "A British High Court judge ruled that \"An Inconvenient Truth\" promotes \"partisan political views,\" was riddled with errors and falsehoods, and could not be shown any more in schools, unless accompanied by a teacher's guide correcting information that Gore had misrepresented. Two of the most egregious distortions are especially likely to scare kids."
## [3391] "Yes, you read that right the same Will Steffen who is the Labor governments Chief Alarmist, and who has already made up his mind and linked the Queensland floods to climate change (see here ). Kind of like the University of East Anglia investigating Climategate no, wait, they did. What hope is there for an impartial, balanced report? None. The people of Queensland deserve better."
## [3392] "We can not look particularly noticeable traces of the major volcanic eruptions Pinatubo in 1991, El Chichon in 1992 and Agnung 1963, suggesting that the cooling effects due to emissions of particles (aerosols) are modest, at least for these eruptions.This strengthens our claim in an earlier post that aerosols in climate models are exaggerated."
## [3393] "Nowack et al . (2014) write that \"state-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever,\" but they state that \"some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive,\" and they say they are therefore \"often ignored in climate simulations,\" citing the studies of Taylor et al . (2012) and Kravitz et al . (2013)."
## [3394] "The multi-decadal climate models are intended to provide information as to what are the plausible changes. However, in my view there is no need (and much added expense) to use the models to create changed climatology when these models have never demonstrated skill in the predictionfor the past decadesof changes in regional climatology . Thus, the large expense being applied, as illustrated in my post on the Mote et al 2011 EOS article , is not justified."
## [3395] "Collapse of the AGW theory of the IPCC; 'Most influential climate paper of all time' contains multiple false assumptions"
## [3396] "We have been through a dark time when blacklists of scientists who disagree with the IPCC climate orthodoxy have been drawn up, editors have been threatened with being forced out of their jobs for allowing dissenting papers to be published in journals, correct science which disproves the orthodoxy position has been ignored and witch hunts on skeptical scientists and bloggers have been promoted."
## [3397] "An issue with models (as far as I know how models handle this issue), by the way, is that they dissipate this transferred free energy by turbulence rather than transferring it to the ocean or to the sand. Oceans are usually driven by wind drag, but the resulting power input has already been dissipated by the models drag parameterization in the atmospheric boundary layer. So this should be quite an inconsistency in the coupling of models, with effects on the turbulent fluxes. I really think this points out that models do not handle interactions correctly at system boundaries with respect to free energy transfer."
## [3398] "Steve McIntyre pointed out some time ago, here , that almost all the global climate models around which much of the IPCCs AR5 WGI report was centred had been warming faster than the real climate system over the last 35-odd years, in terms of the key metric of global mean surface temperature. The relevant figure from Steves post is reproduced as Figure 1 below."
## [3399] "In order to hide the unexpectedly slow increase in temperature, he has alsostretchedout the Y-axis of his graph. If he drew the temperature graph at the same scale as his 1988 forecasts, no one would even be paying attention any more. The graph below doesnt look much like a hockey stick."
## [3400] "On his web site, Alan Carlin posted his remarks upon acceptance of the Climate Science Whistleblower Award. Carlin tried to fight from within the EPA that finding the greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), endangers human health and welfare (Endangerment Finding). He thought it was based on bad science. He was promptly muzzled. So much for the most transparent Administration ever. This highly questionable finding provides the EPA with the justification to severely regulate power plants, expanding its powers without Congressional action. Carlin states: So what started out as a scientific issue concerning a proposed Endangerment Finding has now escalated into a major legal and even Constitutional issue concerning Presidential powers. The President roams the country calling us flat-earthers and science-deniers. Perhaps it is time to characterize his behavior as illegal and even dictatorial."
## [3401] "Considered somewhat of a black sheep within the scientific community Judith was a one time supporter of the IPCC until she started to find herself disagreeing with certain policies and methods of the organization. She feared the combination of groupthink and political advocacy, combined with an ingrained noble cause syndrome stifled scientific debate, slowed down scientific progress, and corrupted the assessment process."
## [3402] "I wish they??d exhibit the same investigative zeal when it comes to looking at Arctic sea ice record low extents , for all we know, the 2007 low extent might also be a victim of the same algorithm shift that occurred that year."
## [3403] "Here is a photo from the walk way along the top of the dam. I can not imagine a worse place for a USCHN weather station. It is located in a very narrow canyon, with long shadows. It is surrounded by stone building heat sinks except on the river side. Here on the river it is exposed to waters of varying temperatures, cold in spring and winter, warm in summer and fall as the river flows vary with the season. The level of spray also varies, depending on river flow. During high flows the spillway creates a lot of spray. During low water conditions, the only water flow is through the two power houses, one which is a mile down stream. Very little spray. We know that the amount of water vapor in the air has a big impact on temperatures, and here it varies by season and river flow."
## [3404] "Another curiosity: Meehl et al (2013) presented the outputs of 5 ensemble members of the CCSM4 model using RCP4.5 forcings. But the CMIP5 archive contains 6 ensemble members with those forcings. Why did they exclude one? We illustrated how poorly all six ensemble members simulate the warming rates in the Pacific on a zonal mean basis, so why they excluded one is somewhat of a mystery."
## [3405] "While we have known for some time, including through the work of Anthony Watts , that many weather stations are poorly maintained and positioned in wrong places including next to air conditioning outlets on bitumen the recent GISS saga indicates how subjective the system of compilation can be. Indeed it appears that when Australia sends data in late, rather than wait, the team in New York might be inclined to best guess based on last months pattern and climatology."
## [3406] "I suggest this is what really happened: the polar bear biologists working in Svalbard earlier this year knew this bear was going to die back in April when they captured him they simply waited, with a photographer on hand, until he died. It was an orchestrated photo-op ?? How is it possible that this bear was healthy in April but dead by starvation less than 3 months later? Why was he even on land in April? Why was global warming photographer Ashley Cooper in Svalbard for 12 days in July, fortuitously available to take the bears picture?"
## [3407] "The two researchers say their results imply that \"current climate models cannot reliably predict changes in tropical precipitation extremes,\" noting that \"inaccurate simulation of the upward velocities may explain not only the intermodal scatter in changes in tropical precipitation extremes but also the inability of models to reproduce observed interannual variability.\" References"
## [3408] "But was the \"evidence\" for global warming intentionally and illegally concocted? By their persistence in hiding their data we may think so, as far as Mann and Weaver are concerned; while Dr Ball's latest sensational book,'' The Deliberate Corruption of Climate Science ;' detailing the Climategate shenanigans, is a 'must read' as to culpability. But only a full criminal investigation will be determinative of all that. The question now is, will the U.S. and Canadian governmental authorities have the stomach to delve deeper?"
## [3409] "... simply put, you can't (from 2006): Mankind has had less effect on global warming than previously supposed, a United Nations report on climate change will claim next year. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says there can be little doubt that humans are responsible for warming the planet, but the organisation has reduced its overall estimate of this effect by 25 per cent. The IPCC has been forced to halve its predictions for sea-level rise by 2100, one of the key threats from climate change. It says improved data have reduced the upper estimate from 34 in to 17 in. Commentary and Vitriol @ Cjunk"
## [3410] "Yes, that's right: the computer code was designed to create a warming trend no matter what data was put into it. You could make up your own numbers showing the exact same recorded temperatures each and every year for the last thousand years and the \"model\" would still spit out an Al-Gore-style hockey-stick warming graph."
## [3411] "Entitled The extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature in the last two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability, by B Christiansen of the Danish Meteorological Institute and F C Ljungqvist of Stockholm University, the paper concludes that previous climate reconstructions seriously underestimate variability and trends in the climate record of the past two millennia."
## [3412] "About this time Steve McIntyre linked up with Ross McKitrick a Canadian economist specialising in environmental economics and policy analysis. Together McIntyre and McKitrick began to dig down into the data that Mann had used in his paper and the statistical techniques used to create the single blended average used to make the Hockey Stick. They immediately began to find problems ."
## [3413] "This morning we received an update from friend at the Institut Hayek in France. Evidently, the French Academy of Sciences soon will release a paper that eviscerates the ???beautiful certainties?? espoused by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. To read Drieu Godefridi??s brief on the imminent report, click here . To visits the Institut Hayek website, click here ."
## [3414] "It is still a good question to ask and one I urged teachers to get their students to ask. They can begin with the book that became the book of genesis for the environmental alarmism, Rachel Carson?s Silent Spring. They can continue through the Y2K fiasco to the CFCs destroying the ozone. There never was a shred of evidence that CFCs were in the ozone layer or causing change. Interestingly, a major proponent of the CFC destruction argument was Susan Solomon who became Co-Chair of Working Group I of the IPCC."
## [3415] "We??ve discussed on many occasions that you can ???get?? a HS merely from picking upward-trending series from networks of red noise (David Stockwell had a good note on this phenomenon on his blog a couple of years ago. My first experiments of this type were on the cherry picks in the original Jacoby network.) Since gridcell temperature series from the mid-19th century to late 20th century by and large have an upward trend, this test is equivalent to a simple pick operation. Whatever the merits of effectively screening the data set for upward trending data, this affects statistical benchmarks, as the null is applying the same sort of operation to red noise networks."
## [3416] "One of the unintended and humorous consequences of climate record fabrications has been the nonsensical and irrational explanations as to why enhanced global warming is producing colder and more severe winters. The faux-warming has now necessitated the fabrication of new global warming capabilities that are entirely inconsistent with known weather physics and history."
## [3417] "The largest center for global-warming research in the UK is the Hadley Centre. The Hadley Centre employs a statistician, Doug McNeall. After my op-ed piece appeared, Doug McNeall and I had an e-mail discussion about it. A copy of one of his messages is attached. In the message, he states that the statistical modela straight line with AR(1) noiseis simply inadequate. (He still believes that the world is warming, primarily due to computer simulations of the global climate system.)"
## [3418] "The fiddling with temperature data is the biggest science scandal ever"
## [3419] "Thereputable climate science community should collectively cringe with embarrassment."
## [3420] "So it is sadly little surprise that David Bellamy, one of the most recognisable naturalists and botanists in the UK, and whom I used to watch without fail on TV when I was a kid, has been shunned for over 10 years by the BBC because of his views on climate change, as the UK Daily Mail reports:"
## [3421] "Similarly, how much confidence should climate modellers have in Hansen's 1988 prediction? As the Hargreaves paper cited notes, Hansen's GCM overpredicted warming by some 40% as assessed in its first 20 years. This was still better than a naive prediction of no warming, but was still a long way out. Moreover, it should now be possible to redo Hargreaves' assessment at the 25-year mark and it is more than likely that the naive prediction will now outperform the GCM."
## [3422] "Maybe Hansen will be proved right. But these days he seems more interested in ideology than science."
## [3423] "To get to the truth, I emailed a sample of scientists whos papers were used in the study and asked them if the categorization by Cook et al. (2013) is an accurate representation of their paper. Their responses are eye opening and evidence that the Cook et al. (2013) team falsely classified scientists papers as endorsing AGW, apparently believing to know more about the papers than their authors."
## [3424] "So what can we expect from the new GOP candidate when it comes to climate change and science? First note, however, that his Democrat opponent is alsono stooge of the warmists hoax."
## [3425] "First, I have no basis from which to dispute Nielsen-Gammons opening sentence of, When driven by observed oceanic variability, the models do a great job simulating the atmospheric response. I have not investigated how well the models actually perform this function. But thats neither here nor there. Why? Well, if the hindcast and projected representations of sea surface temperatures created by the models are not realistic, then the atmospheric response to the modeled oceanic variability would also fail to be realistic."
## [3426] "Sterns central conclusion that If we dont act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year now and forever whereas the costs of action reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change can be limited to around 1% of GDP each year is found to be entirely fallacious."
## [3427] "(p16-17) The issue revolved around a tree ring series that had been used to reconstruct temperatures of the past . This series diverged dramatically from instrumental temperatures in the last half of the twentieth century, experiencing a sharp decline during a period when instrumental temperatures were rising. Showing this divergence would have raised a major question mark over the reliability of tree ring temperature reconstructions since, if there is a divergence between tree rings and instrumental records in modern times, it cannot be said with any certainty that such divergences did not also occur in the past, rendering the temperature reconstruction of questionable utility"
## [3428] "It started when I said something like: the models do not work or if you predict warming and that predicted warming doesnt happen then the model/theory is invalid and not science. Well apparently the greenblob also work Saturdays, because one quite obnoxious individual just kept coming back with a whole lot of twaddle. In the past Ive found that if I just keep to the point and asked them to show me that the global average surface temperature had warmed by at least the lowest prediction of the IPCC prediction they would eventually give up."
## [3429] "Climate alarmist James Hansen has long predicted the catastrophic tipping point of global temperatures from human CO2 emissions. His predictions include the seas will soon be boiling and a significant increase of extreme weather events, due to the excessive warming of the tropical atmosphere."
## [3430] "If you talk to the greenhouse mafia about these observations, they provide some answers, but those are not real. There is no proper support for the claim that the greenhouse effect should already be visible. It is sometimes stated that the Southern Hemisphere is warming. But there are so few observational sites over there that it is very difficult to draw any definitive conclusions about the temperature in the Southern Hemisphere."
## [3431] "The blue line totally ignores any of our other understandings about the changing climate, including the changing intensity of the sun. It is conveniently exactly what is necessary to make the pink line match history. In fact, against all evidence, note the blue band falls over the century. This is because the models were pushing the temperature up faster than we have seen it rise historically, so the modelers needed a negative plug to make the numbers look nice."
## [3432] "Hackers broke into thousands of emails and documents from the Climate Research Unit at East Anglia University last week and uncovered the global warming conspiracy."
## [3433] "While that lat/lon puts the station in the parking lot, I note that typically most GPS readings in NCDC??s metadata are good to only about 100 feet. And sure enough, right where I suspected it was, was the telltale shadow of the MMTS shelter. Some annotation was added to the Google Earth image to help you visualize what I know from years of experience doing aerial station surveys."
## [3434] "Dr. James Hansen is the Director of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Dr. Hansen is right up there with Al Gore, Michael Mann and the Climategate CRU on the list of people helping the UN to swindle the United States and other western democracies out of trillions of dollars through his promotion of the Anthropogenic Global Warming fraud."
## [3435] "Climate models appear to be very good at predicting the past, yet they havent predicted the latest bout of cooling, so why are we still spending so much on them. There was the lack of salt for the roads this winter and an expectation of warm winters."
## [3436] "Pajamas Medias PJTV has a new 26 minute video interview with Lord Christopher Monckton . Al Gore was discussed, of course, and specifically mentioned was Al Gores doubling down on man-made climate change via his blizzard of lies op-ed he wrote for the compliant New York Times. However, in my opinion the doubling down analogy is a weak one. Doubling down is a strategy that is used in blackjack, and is done when playing from a positon of strength rather than weakness, e.g. when a player is dealt a ten or an eleven, or when the dealer is showing a very weak hand to your own nine:"
## [3437] "As most readers know by now, the problematic GISTEMP global temperature anomaly plot for October is heavily weighted by temperatures from weather stations in Russia."
## [3438] "The map resembles the planet Earth, where most of us reside. The continents are in the right places, and so are the oceans. But we know thats not the Earth. The risks illustrated are based on climate models, and we know that climate models used by the IPCC for their reports are not based on Earths actual climate, as it has existed in the past, or as it exists now. The maps output by climate models may resemble our Earth, but theyre fantasy maps of a fantasy world. They create nothing more than an illusionan illusion that is intended to make it look like bad things will happen in the future if we all do not agree to reduce our carbon footprints."
## [3439] "He focuses on a particular study within the energy balance modelling approach. What he doesnt say is that this paper suggests estimates of climate sensitivity that are largely unchanged based on recent temperature data, and that it implies the need to cut global emissions significantly in order to limit currently high risks of very dangerous climate change. Neither does he refer to other studies within this approach which find a higher sensitivity. He does not highlight the limitations of energy balance modelling, which is no more certain than climate modelling."
## [3440] "Mr. Mann??s 1999 paper eliminated the Medieval warm period from the history books, with the result being the bottom graph you see here. It??s a man-made global-warming evangelist??s dream, with a nice, steady temperature oscillation that persists for centuries followed by a dramatic climb over the past century. In 2001, the IPCC replaced the first graph with the second in its third report on climate change, and since then it has cropped up all over the place. Al Gore uses it in his movie."
## [3441] "Undoubtedly, if human caused global warming is one day proven to be a hoax (a moment that may be just around the corner), AL Gore will go down in history as one of the most successful fraud artists ever. He will have enriched himself while causing massive strains to be placed on Western economies just when they are in an economic crisis ... and all this for a hocus pocus theory that has yet to be proven and is showing growing cracks in its facade. But, emerging ever more from the shadows is the real man behind the Global warming frenzy; Dr. James Hansen of NASA ."
## [3442] "Clouds both cool down and warm up the earth's surface. They cool the earth by reflecting some sunlight up into outer space, and they warm it by bouncing some sunlight down to the surface. Overall, most clouds have a net cooling effect, but atmospheric scientists need to accurately measure when they cool and warm to produce better climate models that incorporate clouds faithfully ."
## [3443] "And that is exactly what he did. The animation below shows how Gavin has altered the US temperature record since 1998, and turned the gold standards of climatology into lead"
## [3444] "Instead of using a single number, or point estimate, for the ECS, the IAMs use a distribution of possible values for the ECS. In essence, the distribution is a spectrum of values in which potential temperatures are weighted by their probability of occurrence. Because of the myriad factors that affect measured temperatures, estimates of ECS distributions are themselves uncertain and evolve as new data and theory are added to the process."
## [3445] "Because of the immense heat capacity of the deep ocean, the magnitude of deep warming in Scenario 3 might only be thousandths of a degree. Whether we can measure such tiny levels of warming on the time scales of decades or longer is very questionable, and the new study co-authored by Trenberth is not entirely based upon observations, anyway."
## [3446] "Whilst human-adjusted datasets show some warming, none of those predicted to warm by at least 0.14/decade by the IPCC in 2001 have warmed at even the lowest predicted rate."
## [3447] "Temperature data from 1079 stations worldwide contributed to the analysis, 134 of them being located in the 50 US states. Data from essentially the same few stations have been used for the past twenty-four months. Many, many hundreds of stations that have historically been included in the record and still collect data today continue to be ignored by GISS in global temperature calculations."
## [3448] "Tom Nelson finds the email that should bury the BBC and any pretense that it isn't hopelessly biased in favor of global warming."
## [3449] "Did Professor Jones actually read, let alone strove to understand Montford and Newberys submission? That doesnt look likely. By the way, they were not granted a correction. The fact that they are not Lords of the Land has obviously nothing to do with that."
## [3450] "If the science were as certain as climate activists pretend, then there would be precisely one climate model, and it would be in agreement with measured data. As it happens, climate modelers have constructed literally dozens of climate models. What they all have in common is a failure to represent reality, and a failure to agree with the other models. As the models have increasingly diverged from the data, the climate clique have nevertheless grown increasingly confidentfrom cocky in 2001 (66% certainty in IPCCs Third Assessment Report) to downright arrogant in 2013 (95% certainty in the Fifth Assessment Report)."
## [3451] "The IPCC structure was designed to ensure one outcome warming due to human CO2. Working Group I of the IPCC is limited by definition and terms of reference to that result. They focus almost exclusively on human CO2 and assume an increase in CO2 causes a temperature increase. Their computer models are so programmed, which predetermines the outcome; despite all records showing the opposite relationship. As a result all their projections are wrong. They project warming, but the world cools."
## [3452] "The extra heat found for Hadcrut US stations in comparison with both Hansen et al. 1999 and the results from the present paper amounts to approx. 0.42 K since the 1930ies. Far most of the Hadcrut temperature stations (77 out of 87 stations) are available unadjusted from GHCN, and thus it was possible to estimate that only approx. 0.12 K of the extra roughly 0.42 K heat trend in Hadcrut US temperature trend originates from adjustments. The remaining roughly 0.3 K of extra heat trend for Hadcrut US temperature stations seems to originate from the choice of temperature stations from GHCN included in the Hadcrut USA subset."
## [3453] "There are huge uncertainties in the model outputs which are recognized and unmeasured. They are so large that adjustment of model parameters can give model results which fit almost any climate, including one with no warming, and one that cools."
## [3454] "Climatologist Dr. Pat Michaels Mocks Heat Causing Cold Claims: \"It is the core problem of climatology attempting to explain everything even when everything becomes contradictory'"
## [3455] "The mere presence of environmental activists undermines the integrity of scientific endeavours. Yet the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has long embraced Greenpeace personnel. Read the rest here . This blog has relocated . You can sign up to receive an e-mail each time a new post is added under the \"Email subscription\" bar a little below the photo.NoFrakkingConsensus now has a Facebook page. ."
## [3456] "The animation below shows their little problem. It alternates between the blue error map, and their current trend map. In their claimed high sea level rise areas, the error is almost as big as the trend in some places it is greater than the trend."
## [3457] "Economist Mag. slapped down for 'clearly biased and misleading' climate reporting"
## [3458] "The researchers then ran the data through a climate model, both a control run and a run with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcings, which did a decent job of simulating short-term, monthly changes in lapse rate, but failed to simulate decadal scale changes. The model shows a tighter long-term coupling between the surface and atmospheric temperatures than is observed in nature. As this study shows, our understanding of heat transfer between the surface and atmosphere is still incomplete, and until this problem is resolved there is little hope that climate models can tell us anything about what the climate may be like in 10, 50 or 100 years."
## [3459] "Climate Science published a proposed test of the multi-decadal global model predictions (see A Litmus Test For Global Warming A Much Overdue Requirement ). Clearly, so far, the models are failing to skillfully predict the rate (and even the sign for the most recent years) of global warming. Andy Revkin should follow up his article to document what the models predict in terms of global warming (in Joules) over different time periods, and what do the observations actually show. This would beexcellent investigative (much needed)journalism."
## [3460] "Global warming alarmism is rooted in the idea that ever-increasing manmade emissions of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide, cause global temperatures to warm. This idea, however, doesn't match up very well against real-world observations."
## [3461] "This is same LA Times which publishes factual inaccuracies about the climate almost every day. They said in August that New Mexico would never recover from the drought right before New Mexico flooded."
## [3462] "The difference in the radiation temperatures from the highest to the lowest GCMs global control runs (from 16.5C to 11.5C), on the other hand, is 27 watts per square meter ?? clearly, some of them are very, very wrong. Heck, look at the top red line. It changes by 1C, that??s 5.5 w/m2, when the forcings haven??t changed at all. Can this GCM tell us anything about a 1 watt/m2 change over 50 years? I don??t think so ??"
## [3463] "A recent re-posting on the SPPI blog from the HockeySchtick site, with the title, The 97% Consensus is only 75 Self-Selected Climatologists was a second look at the claim first made in January 2009, in a paper called Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change by Peter Doran and Kendall Zimmerman, from the department of Earth and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois."
## [3464] "There are a number of ways to present how poorly climate models simulate global surface temperatures. Normally they are compared in a time-series graph. See the example here . In that example, GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index (LOTI) data are compared to the multi-model mean of the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive, which was used by the IPCC for their 5 th Assessment Report. The data and model outputs have been smoothed with 61-month filters to reduce the monthly variations."
## [3465] "If the ABC (and the report) were not desperate to paint an awful picture of a wasteland ravaged by man-made climate change (which they most certainly are), you could alternatively say that over 90% of the catchment areas were in either moderate or good condition . Well done."
## [3466] "FALSE ALARM: Why Almost Everything Weve Been Told About Global Warming is Misleading, Exaggerated, or Plain Wrong How the Hadley Centre spins the data on non-warming The Hadley Centres spin effort isnt exaggerating the data (far from it), nor is it plain wrong the true figures are on the site. But t he Centre is doing everything it can to mislead the public in hopes that the planet will start warming again before the peasants figure out that, maybe, the consensus climate science prophets are, in fact, plain wrong."
## [3467] "Professor Phil Jones is a leading climate scientist and co-director of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) of the University of East Angliain Cromwell country. Jones is part of a climate scientist cabal, not too distant in puritanical fervor from Cromwell's New Model Army. This cabal ignores all counter evidence and regularly pronounces with the certainty that only faith can give that human emissions are affecting the planet."
## [3468] "This is a reflection of the fact that the global warming establishment is biased toward high climate sensitivity. It is a specific example of the tendency of natural scientists to view nature as fragile, full of tipping points and hobgoblins."
## [3469] "So-called climate skeptics, practicing proper science by disproving the hypothesis that human CO2 is causing global warming, achieved a great deal. This, despite harassment by formal science agencies, like the Royal Society, and deliberate neglect by the mainstream media. It combined with an active and deliberate Public Relations campaign, designed to mislead and confuse. Most people and politicians understand little of what is going on so the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) strategy of using created science for a political agenda moves ahead."
## [3470] "Before we spend anything on mitigating a problem based on models, we need to know what empirical evidence supports the assumptions in the models. (Make no mistake, while CO2 causes warming it is the models that predict how much warming). I??ve been asking for since Jan 2010 and no one can name that mystery paper with strong observations. We need to understand how accurate those predictions are. It is only then that we can figure out which are the most important environmental concerns. As it happens the models are doing a really poor job of prediction (see also here )."
## [3471] "An investigation by Dr Benny Peiser, director, Global Warming Policy Foundation, has revealed that only 13 of the 1,117, or a mere 1 per cent of the scientific papers crosschecked by him, explicitly endorse the consensus as defined by the IPCC. Thus the very basis of the claim of consensus on global warming is false. And so deeply entrenched is the global warming lobby, the prestigious journal Science did not publish a letter that Dr Peiser wrote pointing out the lack of consensus."
## [3472] "As for the declaration that we are experiencing the ???hottest?? year ??? this is a purely political statement. Lawrimore knows that these statistics are merely tenths of a degree or less. (See: MIT??s Richard Lindzen: ???For small changes in climate associated with tenths of a degree, there is no need for any external cause?? )"
## [3473] "Planet Gore on National Review Online What is it with Al Gore? Why is he compelled to exaggerate climate change (excuse me, the climate crisis), and then to propose impossible policy responses? Its like hes inventing the Internet all over again! OK, its pretty much standard rhetoric in Washington to say that if you dont do as I say, there will be massive consequences. But to say, as Gore recently did: The survival of the United States of America as we know it is at risk; and: The future of human civilization is at stake thats a bit much, even for the most faded and jaded political junkie. Heres how Gore works. Hell cite one scientific finding that shows what he wants, and then ignore other work that provides important context. Heres a list of his climate exaggerations from his well-publicized July 17 rant, along with a few sobering facts..."
## [3474] "Sure, this is GISP ??? one ice core from Greenland and not global temperatures. The truth is we have no idea whether the current level of ???extreme?? hot days is much different to the hot spells 1,000 years ago, 2,000 years ago, or 7,000 years ago. It is completely disingenuous to pretend that a 15 year trend in a data set this noisy tells us something that matters."
## [3475] "Beyond mere organizational problems are more fundamental factors. The nature of the issue and the history of past environmental alarms (e.g., the population bomb, resource scarcity, and so forth) meant that early on the issue broke down into rigid categories of \"true believers\" or \"alarmists,\" and \"skeptics\"terms that carry a pejorative connotation when used today. The heat over the issue has tended to drive scientists toward one camp or the other, which is one reason why many open-minded scientists avoid the issue or decline to participate in the IPCC process. Hence the scientists and experts participating in each iteration have become increasingly self-selected toward those with a bias toward climate alarmism. Although the IPCC's reports pass through elaborate peer reviews, controversy surrounds many basic issues, and a number of errors or weak conclusions have gotten through."
## [3476] "I chose the lectures title largely in reaction to the sanctimonious tone employed by so many of those who advocate quite substantial, and costly, responses to what they see as irrefutable evidence that the worlds climate faces catastrophe, against people who do not share their view. To them the cause has become a substitute religion."
## [3477] "First, the IPCC has already been compelled to reduce the radiative forcing at CO2 doubling by more than a sixth, from 4.4 W/m2 in the 1995 climate assessment report to 3.7 W/m2 in 2001. The CO2 forcing in the atmosphere cannot be measured directly. Also, laboratory experiments are of limited value because they cannot replicate the long optical pathway of the outgoing radiation through the rapidly-attenuating atmosphere."
## [3478] "I dont know how much a Tropical Airport exceeds the temperatures of nearby forests nor how much they exceed a Scandinavian Woods, but I do know they will be much warmer Certainly far warmer as a local phenomenon than the tenths and hundredths of a degree of AGW that we are supposed to be panicked about. Far more than anything attributed to CO2."
## [3479] "As vilification of Soon demonstrates, however, climate politics wont accommodate alternative views. With their motivating theory increasingly challenged by observation, proponents of extreme precaution have gone from name-callingdeniers, Neanderthalsto character assassination. Their tactics exude desperation and undermine their credibility."
## [3480] "Of course, big-government does not like its climate orthodoxy challenged. That is why attorneys general across the country have begun focusing on those who challenge climate-change \"consensus.\" CEI is the latest victim of the witch-hunt on climate change skeptics, but CEI is fighting back."
## [3481] "Why? Because of (2) and (3). AR5s reduction of estimated increase in global average surface temperature 19512010 by nearly half, and its reduction of the lower limit of ECS by one-fourth, reflect huge revisions, first, in how scientists process temperature data from around the world, second, in observations (about 0.0C) versus expectations (about 0.3C to 0.4C) of warming over the past 15 to 20 years, and, third, in how modelers understand climates response to increased greenhouse gases."
## [3482] "NASA has repeatedly altered global temperature data, causing a net doubling of 1880-1980 global warming since their 1981 version. Pre-1965 years keep getting colder, and post-1965 years keep getting warmer. (Note that prior to 2003, NASA did noteven pretend to know pre-1950 ocean temperatures.)"
## [3483] "In December, as Climategate was developing, TWTW referred to a Russian report stating the CRU was ignoring data from colder regions of Russia, even though these stations were still reporting data. Thus, the data loss was not due to just the closing of stations as earlier thought, but due to decisions by the CRU to ignore them."
## [3484] "Climate change is an area where consistent attempts are made to communicate the certainty of the science. As a result, a spotlight on scientific uncertainties may be seen as unwelcome. However, in the run-up to the United Nations climate summit in Paris, making climate change meaningful remains a key challenge and our analysis of the press conference demonstrates that this meaning-making cannot be achieved by relying on scientific certainty alone. When trying to engage the public about climate science, communicators should be aware that there is a tension between expressing scientific certainty (and focusing on longterm trends) and making climate change meaningful (by focusing on short-term trends) and, what is more, that this tension may be unavoidable. A broader, more inclusive public dialogue will have to include crucial scientific details that we are far less certain about and these need to be embraced in order to make climate change meaningful."
## [3485] "Th e hockey stick graph dealt with all those by eliminating the MWP and the LIA. It inappropriately tacked on, as the blade of the stick, an upturn in temperature in the 20th century. Phil Jones produced the upturn that claimed a 0.6C 0.2C increase in 120 years. They claimed this rate of increase was beyond any natural increase, conveniently ignoring the 33% error factor."
## [3486] "If the Chronicle editorial board wants to know the weaknesses in the scientific case for climate alarmism, several hours of concentrated effort is all that it will take. If the editorial board wants to understand how Waxman-Markey is very expensive regulation for its own sake, without appreciable benefits, that is there for the taking too."
## [3487] "Lindzen and Choi implies that the models are exaggerating climate sensitivity: warming from a doubling of CO2 would only be about 1C This modest warming is much less than current climate models suggest for a doubling of CO2. Models predict warming of from 1.5C to 5C and even more for a doubling of CO2( paper )"
## [3488] "It is not for a non-climatologist such as me to say which climate-sensitivity value is correct. On this brief analysis, however, it is evident that the models on which the IPCC relies are little better than expensive guesswork, and that no great reliance can be placed upon the IPCCs central estimates, still less on its high-end estimates. As a policymaker, I should be profoundly reluctant, given the current state of the science, to recommend to Ministers that they should take the drastic actions advocated in some circles to mitigate global warming."
## [3489] "John fails to see that such conflicts of interest compromise balanced assessments in climate science, and, presumably also in other fields where we do not have expertise."
## [3490] "[Editor?s note: The following material was supplied to us by Dr. Richard Lindzen as an example of how research that counters climate-change alarm receives special treatment in the scientific publication process as compared with results that reinforce the consensus view. In this case, Lindzen's submission to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences was subjected to unusual procedures and eventually rejected (in a rare move), only to be accepted for publication in the Asian Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences."
## [3491] "Previous investigations of the Climategate affair were pretty much whitewashes. Another one, led by Muir Russell, is expected to report soon. However, it is not charged with investigating the science either."
## [3492] "This issue was made very explicit by the title of the Scientific American article entitled Climate Heretic: Judith Curry turns against her Colleagues . Of all the issues raised by Climategate and the points I had been trying to make about overconfidence and uncertainty, transparency, engaging with skeptics, etc., the main issue of interest in all this was construed as me turning against my colleagues? It was hard for me to understand this at first, but then I realized that by talking about uncertainty and engaging with skeptics that I was following the playbook according to the merchants of doubt meme. So talking about topics that I regarded as efforts that were needed to rebuild the credibility of climate science was regarded by my colleagues as damaging to the consensus."
## [3493] "Your site, Spiked and a few others are very good at exposing the fallacious and fatuous logic of the Warmists arguments on CO2 and trends, and in revealing the strong links between politicizing scientists and global warming. As you point out above, one distinguished scientist postulates a link between obesity and global warming without a single shred of evidence."
## [3494] "As the models have improved, the amount of predicted global warming has gone down. In 1990, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), using then state-of-the-art models, forecast a 3.2 C warming by 2100. In 1995, the IPCC lowered that forecast to 2.0 C."
## [3495] "The Houston Chronicle editorial page is one of the most biased in the nation when it comes to climate alarmism and associated public-policy activism. And it maintained that unenviable reputation with last Sundays op-ed, Cap-and-Trade-Off ."
## [3496] "THE WORD religion is often used, rather effectively, to demonise a category of people who hold a strong conviction about something and propose to translate that belief into action. Global warming is a new religion and blasphemy against that religion is not a laughing matter, Lord Lawson has said, adding that there is a great gap in Europe with the decline of any real belief in Marxism and any real belief in Christianity. This has filled the vacuum."
## [3497] "Ocean Currents : Are the major ocean currents, such as the THC (Thermohaline Circulation), understood? Well we do know a lot about them ??? we know where they go and how big they are, and what is in them (including heat), and we know much about how they affect climate ??? but we know very little about what changes them and by how much or over what time scale. In summary ??? Understood? No. Contribution in the models : 0%."
## [3498] "18) How Important are Computerized Climate Models? I consider climate models as being our best way of exploring cause and effect in the climate system. It is really easy to be wrong in this business, and unless you can demonstrate causation with numbers in equations, you are stuck with scientists trying to persuade one another by waving their hands. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that climate models will ever produce a useful prediction of the future. Nevertheless, we must use them, and we learn a lot from them. My biggest concern is that models have been used almost exclusively for supporting the claim that humans cause global warming, rather than for exploring alternative hypotheses ? e.g. natural climate variations ? as possible causes of that warming."
## [3499] "Quoting the six scientists, \"among the 35 CGCMs, 14 models erroneously produce an upwelling dome in the eastern half of the basin whereas the observed Seychelles Dome is located in the southwestern tropical Indian Ocean.\" In addition, they report that \"the annual mean Ekman pumping velocity in these models is found to be almost zero in the southern off-equatorial region,\" which finding, as they describe it, \"is inconsistent with observations, in which Ekman upwelling acts as the main cause of the Seychelles Dome.\""
## [3500] "All of the above addresses the two issues mentioned at the beginning. First, global climate models on average depict a relationship between the surface and upper air that is different than that observed, i.e. models depict an amplifying factor into the upper air that is greater than observed. Secondly, the average climate model depicts the warming rate since 1979 as much higher than observed with increasing discrepancies as the altitude increases (which is consistent with the first issue)."
## [3501] "Stories citing experts or the latest studies promoting alarmism get covered more than 8 times as often as critical experts and studies."
## [3502] "The world has warmed 0.05 degrees Celsius (0.09 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade over the past 15 years, a fraction of the 0.2C (0.36F) per decade rate confidently predicted by the U.N. six years ago, according to a leaked copy of the foremost climate report in the world."
## [3503] "It is difficult to believe that any self-respecting scientist would have anything to do with the Climate Witness Panel after reading those eight pages. The WWF states baldly, right up front, that the purpose of the panel is to heighten the publics sense of urgency . That particular phrase is used four times on the final page."
## [3504] "As I have discussed before, the IPCCs neglect of natural variability in the climate system ends up leading to circular reasoning on their part. They ignore the effect of natural cloud variations when trying to diagnose feedback, which then leads to overestimates of climate sensitivity . This, in turn, causes them to conclude that increasing carbon dioxide concentrations alone are sufficient to explain global warming, and so no natural forcings of climate change need be found."
## [3505] "Obviously Rahmstorf and Mann are unable to come to terms with the results derived from real observed data, and thus feel compelled to create another reality based of very fuzzy, indirect data that can be interpreted as desired."
## [3506] "The trouble does not end there. Cook has been reluctant to share his data for others to scrutinize. He has claimed that some data are protected by confidentiality agreements, even when they are not. He was claimed that some data were not collected, even when they were. The paper claims that each abstract was read by two independent readers, but they freely compared notes. Cook and Co. collected data, inspected the results, collected more data, inspected the results again, changed their data classification, collected yet more data, inspected the results once more, and changed their data classification again, before they found their magic 97 percent. People who express concern about the method have been smeared."
## [3507] "Read here . Globally, scientists with solid empirical-based backgrounds are saying there are severe problems with many of the 2007 IPCC predictions. Namely, that many of the predictions are flat-out false based on the IPCC's political agenda , or wildly inflated by failed climate models."
## [3508] "The fact of the matter is that climate change impacts are very poorly known, he told BBC News."
## [3509] "The paper also finds a negative trend in precipitable water vapor, as do other global datasets , again the opposite of predictions of AGW theory that warming allegedly from CO2 will increase precipitable water vapor in the atmosphere to allegedly amplify warming by 3-5 times. Is the unexpected decrease in water vapor the cause of the decrease in downwelling IR?"
## [3510] "In fact, as seen, the atmospheric humidity is decreasing over time while CO2 levels increase - the exact opposite of all climate model and \"consensus\" expert predictions."
## [3511] "An innocent reader would presume that a Nature ???News Feature?? reporting on Met Office decadal forecasts would include the current Met Office decadal forecast. However, this proves not to be the case. Tollefson showed an older decadal forecast issued prior to the downward revision of the Met Office decadal forecast to which Whitehouse had drawn attention. Tollefson showed the multi-model mean from Smith et al 2012 (Clim Dyn), which has negligible difference from the 2011 Met Office decadal forecast. Had Tollefson shown the ???decline?? in the current decadal forecast, Nature would not have been able to make the same unequivocal headline."
## [3512] "Funny how skeptics are portrayed in the press as being in the pay of someone. We were the only unpaid people in the room. In fact most skeptic scientists are retired or from different fields, free from the corrupting influence of climate science funding. Many alarmist scientists and bureaucrats would lose their jobs or funding if the belief that carbon emissions were causing global warming died, yet wenot theyare accused of vested interests. Very odd."
## [3513] "What was the Earth's temperature yesterday? Nobody knows. In fact, it's a ridiculous question. Almost every place on Earth today has a different temperature from that of any other location. So, is our planet's temperature rising? Do we even know?"
## [3514] "If the earths climate were really responding the way that climate models project it should, the warmest year on record would be announced about every other year (factoring in the observed level of natural variation in annual average temperatures)."
## [3515] "Our ability to quantify the human influence on global climate is currently limited because the expected signal is still emerging from the noise of natural variability, and because there are uncertainties in key factors. These include the magnitude and patterns of long term natural variability 36"
## [3516] "Even this new, drastically-reduced estimate may well be excessive. The monthly Global Warming Prediction Index (Fig. 6), now adjusted to show the lower IPCC projections, still shows the prediction running hot compared with observed reality."
## [3517] "Jason Box of Denmark is todays featured climate fraudster, as he is one of the principals pushing the Greenland melting scam. Jason claims that 2015 was a big melt summer in Greenland"
## [3518] "Santer17??s decision to treat this effect as ???weather noise?? that averages out over all model runs (or all possible realizations of earth weather between forced by these two specific volcanos ) will tend to make their method of testing hypotheses about model means too strict : Assuming the model for the noise is correctly chosen (i.e., the noise is AR1), assuming all deviations from a linear trend are ???noise?? when a large portion is ???signal??, will tend make it too difficult to reject models that are wrong ."
## [3519] "The UAH figures do pick up the fact that Northern band is very slightly warmer than the Southern section, but seem to indicate that the GISS/GHCN surface temperature in Africa is so grossly overestimated as to be worthless. We already know that GISS temperature anomalies in the Arctic , which again are not based on anything remotely resembling a proper temperature record, are much higher than what is shown by UAH satellites. It is beginning to appear that the whole GISS Surface Temperature Record is now utterly unfit for purpose and irretrievably damaged."
## [3520] "6. When over-complex math is used to distort temperature trends resulting in exaggerated warming. Advocate."
## [3521] "This undoubtedly will shock readers, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has a tendency to shade the truth. And only in one direction. It seems ... drumroll, please! ... that the member governments have their own agendas and aren't above lying to the people to achieve their ends."
## [3522] "Junk ad hoc climate science has no rules other than confirmation bias, and keeping the funding stream alive."
## [3523] "The latest UN IPCC report deleted all references to this temperature standstill from the Summary for Policy Makers, and eliminated an IPCC graph that revealed how every single climate model predicted that average global temperatures would be up to 1.6 F higher than they actually were over the past 22 years. IPCC bureaucrats politicized the science to the point of making their report fraudulent."
## [3524] "And there were lots of similar examples. In the Summary for Policy Makers, the scientists had said ???It is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.?? The politicians did not like this, so they added a juicy version ???It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.?? Suddenly ???more than half?? had morphed into ???dominant cause.?? That way, no one might be left with the idea that the scientists had actually said there was a reasonable chance that quite a lot of the warming was entirely natural."
## [3525] "We may reasonably wonder why they feel compelled to endorse this view. The IPCC??s position in its Summary for Policymakers from their Fourth Assessment (2007) is weaker, and simply points out that most warming of the past 50 years or so is due to man??s emissions. It is sometimes claimed that the IPCC is 90% confident of this claim, but there is no known statistical basis for this claimit??s purely subjective. The IPCC also claims that observations of globally averaged temperature anomaly are also consistent with computer model predictions of warming."
## [3526] "There is clear, compelling evidence that many of the major conclusions of the IPCC, your new religions constantly-changing Holy Book, are based on evidence that has been fabricated. The hockey stick graph that purported to abolish the mediaeval warm period is just one example. So let me try to lure you away from feeble-minded, religious belief in the Church of Global Warming and back towards the use of the faculty of reason."
## [3527] "The Global Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) is one of the biggest frauds in climate science. They add 3mm/year to sea level rise rates based on the idea that the sea floor is sinking due to glacial rebound."
## [3528] "It?s not just that the quasi-religious, pseudo-scientific ?Gaia hypothesis? ? the belief, taking its name from the pagan Greek goddess of the Earth, that the sum of the parts of the Earth?s ecosystems together make up a living thing ? is popular in certain environmentalist circles."
## [3529] "The research was based on outputs from two models, including the Hadley Center Model, which reviewers admitted during the course of the National Assessment on Climate Change performed no better than a table of random numbers in predicting past climate."
## [3530] "Current global temperatures are significantly below NASA's climate model and \"expert\" predictions - note the dotted red line on chart."
## [3531] "The warming that has been estimated to have occurred in response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is somewhat greater than the observed warming."
## [3532] "In response to a video posted by a commenter on WUWT, I noted that Parmesan continues to misrepresent her 1996 study. So I wrote, What I find most disgusting and dishonest in this 2013 video is that she still repeats her old story that her butterfly (Edith Checkerspot) had moved upwards and northwards when 1) No such thing ever happened. Only the statistical center moved because more the butterflies had been extirpated due to urban sprawl mostly in southern California and 2) she has known for at least 5 years now that populations that she reported as extinct have now returned . Thats why she refused to let me replicate her study."
## [3533] "After pouring over years of mainstream literature, Johnston discovered numerous scientific uncertainties \"which are rarely if ever even mentioned in the climate change law and policy literature\" (8-9):"
## [3534] "The closest USHCN station to Washington is at Lincoln, Virginia. Since the mid-1990s, the thermometers say that Lincoln has cooled about three degrees (blue below) while USHCN carefully adjusts the temperatures in the opposite direction. Note that the adjusted (red) trend is up by two degrees since the mid-1990s."
## [3535] "Ebell pointed to EPA whistleblower Alan Carlin, a longtime economist for the agency, who discovered this firsthand in 2009 when a report he co-authored questioned the science behind then-proposed global warming regulations under the Clean Air Act."
## [3536] "Green alarmist Ticky Fullerton on Lateline Business rings the lepers bell before interviewing warming sceptic Professor Ian Plimer:"
## [3537] "This tallies with what Richard Betts has said in the past, namely that modellers are using the \"known unknowns\" to get the model into the right climatic ballpark, but not to wiggle-match. However, I'm not sure that users of climate models can place much reliance on them when there is this clear admission that the models are nudged or fudged so that they look \"reasonable\"."
## [3538] "Australias ABC News gets rather carried away and headlines with Global warming to cause mass extinction: report"
## [3539] "NCDC has turned Marylands sixth coldest January-July into the 36th coldest, through a spectacular hockey stick ofadjustments."
## [3540] "Pat??s Comment : The simple GHG-induced temperature projection goes right through the middle of the pack of GCM simulations, and closely tracks the GCM average. As the average of GCM projections is typically accounted to more accurately follow measured climate trends, the same criterion indicates that the simple GHG projection is more accurate than any of the GCM projections. It seems lots of money spent hasn??t gotten us much. One other thing of serious note: It is now obvious that GCM modelers assume that the only element driving net climate change is the level of GHG gasses in the atmosphere. This seems extraordinarily nae, physically."
## [3541] "For this reason, environmental decisions in the face of scientific uncertainty must be understood to raise a mixture of ethical and scientific questions. Yet, the scientific skeptics on global warming or those denying connections between tornadoes and climate change often speak as if it is irrational to talk about duties to reduce greenhouse gases until science is capable of proving with high levels of certainty what actual damages will be."
## [3542] "Postscript: I just finished reading the Royal Society assessment . Overall, I give it a much higher grade than the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (SPM). I know about half of the scientists on the Working Group; they are absolutely top drawer. I dont disagree with anything they say for the first 7 pages. Then they characterize some statements as Aspects of climate change where there is a wide consensus but continuing debate and discussion. The wide consensus is not a good way of putting this, too bad they didnt have an Italian flag. A better way of saying it might have been our best judgement based upon current evidence and background knowledge and actually using the word uncertainty. The list of Aspects that are not well understood is far too skimpy. As a narrative, this makes much more sense than the IPCC SPM, and assesses a lower level of confidence, which is appropriate. Overall, I give it a B grade (compared to a C- for the IPCC SPM)."
## [3543] "Just as a brand new book further exposes the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (whose scams I dissected here, and in more disturbing detail here), and on the heels of the weekend surprise of a 2005 memo showing President Obama's cooling/warming/population zealot of a \"science czar\" John Holdren is the kind of guy Mitt Romney turns to for developing his \"environmental\"' policies, we've exposed the Obama administration and IPCC have cooperated to subvert U.S. transparency laws, operating domestically out of Holdren's White House office."
## [3544] "the reliance of the multi-decadal climate predictions to provide accurate forecasts is further shown to be unjustified, since all of the important climate processes are not included accurately in the models, as acknowledged by Tom Karl."
## [3545] "Concerning the most interesting time span of 10,000 years Holocene: We were able to identify 13 CIO events out of 24, which, according to impact mechanism dynamics, must send Holocene temperatures steeply down after each impact event. As the Earth orbital line oscillates, temperature recoveries follow after each cold temperature peak. The striking feature of this recovery pattern consists of a higher solar energy yield and higher GISP2 temperatures compared to the temperature level given for the date of any impact. We demonstrate this important feature in detail, because it remains left out in present GCMs, another modeling deficiency and obvious cause for GCM model-data mismatches."
## [3546] "Bear in mind that the representation of clouds in climate models (and of the water vapour which is intimately involved with cloud formation) is such as to amplify the forecast warming from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide on average over most of the models by a factor of about 3. In other words, two-thirds of the forecast rise in temperature derives from this particular model characteristic. Despite what the models are telling us and perhaps because it is models that are telling us no scientist close to the problem and in his right mind, when asked the specific question, would say that he is 95% sure that the effect of clouds is to amplify rather than to reduce the warming effect of increasing carbon dioxide. If he is not sure that clouds amplify global warming, he cannot be sure that most of the global warming is a result of increasing carbon dioxide."
## [3547] "The divergence in the Mann/Lamb graphs (Figure 16) at this point is due to the considerable differences in the interpretation of the extent and warmth and extent of the MWP (outside our period of study) and the cold and extent of the LIA."
## [3548] "The climate scare has only lasted as long as it has because the truth that the models have failed and the world has scarcely warmed has been artfully hidden. Let it be hidden no longer."
## [3549] "A climate criminal vehemently objects to an El Nino on the left side of the graph, but excitedly reports the possibility of one on the right side of the graph."
## [3550] "Model Overestimates: As posted by Judith Curry, in its Opinion & Comment section Nature Climate Change published a paper by three members of the climate establishment comparing observed surface warming with the results of 117 model runs of 37 models. The periods cover the last 20 years and the last 15 years. The authors write that for the 20 year period the models over-estimated decadal surface warming by more than 2 times and that for the 15 year period the models over-estimated decadal surface warming by more than 4 times. They state: uch an inconsistency is only expected to occur by chance once in 500 years, if 20-year periods are considered statistically independent."
## [3551] "An interesting feature of the models is that almost all show greater year-to-year variability than observations (Fig. 1.) The average model annual variance (detrended) of anomalies is 60 percent greater than that of the observational datasets. This is a clue that suggests the models atmospheres are more sensitive to forcing than is the real climate system, so that an increase in greenhouse forcing in models will lead to a greater temperature response than experienced by the actual climate system. But saying the climate models are too sensitive only identifies another symptom of the issue, not the cause."
## [3552] "IPCC cites robust source: green activist organisation WWF."
## [3553] "However, observations show that outgoing longwave infrared radiation has increased over the past 62 years, not decreased as predicted by AGW theory:"
## [3554] "The Canadian statistics expert also writes that the proxies that Mann and Rahmstorf used do not contain any useful information on the past history of the AMOC ."
## [3555] "There are adjustments on top of adjustments. Homogenised records are being used to correct raw records. Some man-made adjustments can infect data for miles around"
## [3556] "But that is only part of the story. What is more relevant is that an intense debate about climate change and the alleged solutions to temperature increase has been going on in Italy in the last few years, that led several policy-makers and other stakeholders to endorse non-alarmist, if not openly skeptic, positions with regard to climate policies."
## [3557] "They also differ in their estimates about how much of the 0.8C rise in the past 150 years is caused by human activities and not natural variation."
## [3558] "The infamous Hockey Stick Graph (Mann et al.) has been comprehensively discredited and has been removed by the IPCC from their 4th Report. It is therefore surprising to still find it inthe governmentssection on the scientific justification of Climate Change."
## [3559] "In September 2009 the IPCC were caught promoting a Wikipedia graph . The Hanno graph was placed in the UN Climate Change Science Compendium, but in the cold light of day ended up being a Wikipedia graph done by an ecologist called Hanno Sandvik. It was based on data-sets already known to be deeply flawed, the Jones and Mann set (the Hockey Stick), and the Briffa set (the other Hockey stick). The Jones and Mann set used trees that grow faster when CO2 increases, Mann left out some data he said he included, and the statistical methods used were so erroneous and powerful they created a hockey stick even if they were used on random red noise data sets instead of real tree rings. The Briffa set turned out to be heavily influenced by just one tree in remote northern Russia. I??ve covered the flaws in the Mann graph here , and the Briffa graph here."
## [3560] "Proof-stories are those that say The science predicted this-and-such, and here is the evidence verifying the prediction. These were common in the early days of the panic, back in the late 90s when temperatures cooperated with climate models, but are now as rare as conservatives in Liberal Arts departments."
## [3561] "On the face of it, since Belinda said the reason Australian cities are warmer than the countryside is urbanisation, this work weakens the case for disastrous future warming caused by humanity. But it is a conditional conclusion which depends on the actual quantity of warming caused by the UHI effect."
## [3562] "1. Unlike annual compiled CO2 emissions and CO2 monthly atmospheric levels, recent sulfur emissions and SO2 atmospheric aerosol levels are guesstimates. This study is based on guesstimates, which are based on tenuous assumptions, which are likely not a reflection empirical reality."
## [3563] "That they fancy themselves as objective is embarrassing to me. No, I don?t consider myself completely objective either. But at least I can entertain alternative possibilities regarding the sensitivity of the climate system. If a scientist entertains anything that smacks of ?skepticism?, however, they are not allowed to play in the IPCC sandbox."
## [3564] "Modelling the vertical structure of water vapour is subject to greater uncertainty since the humidity profile is governed by a variety of processes. The CMIP3 models exhibited a significant dry bias of up to 25% in the boundary layer and a significant moist bias in the free troposphere of up to 100% (John and Soden, 2007). Upper tropospheric water vapour varied by a factor of three across the multi-model ensemble (Su et al., 2006). Many models have large biases in lower stratospheric water vapour (Gettelman et al., 2010), which could have implications for surface temperature change (Solomon et al., 2010)."
## [3565] "And this question is far from decided. I won't get into all the arguments here, but to the extent there is any consensus, it is that man' CO2 is probably causing some warming. Whether this is a catastrophe or a nuisance depends on feedbacks which are not well understood."
## [3566] "This microbial carbon dioxide production may cause a 2 to 3 degree Celsius rise in global temperatures over the next 100 years. He also says that, \"The failure to incorporate animals and their interactions with microbial communities into global decomposition models has been highlighted as a critical limitation in our understanding of carbon cycling under current and future climate scenarios.\""
## [3567] "In essence, what we have here is a new satellite using new tools to take measurements. The data recovered is analyzed using guesses and inferences. Their analysis is presented with a margin of error as large as the amount of ice they say is melting from Antarctica. The loss is is less than 1% of the normal annual melt."
## [3568] "Besides making claims that overstate how much we know about the science of climate change, the Initiative's main claim bases its call for action on the notion that \"the consequences of climate change will be significant, and will hit the poor the hardest.\" This ignores the extreme uncertainty involved, as the consequences depend on the projected temperature rises, which are themselves in dispute. There is significant uncertainty even within the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as to what the temperature rises will be. Rises of 1.5 C may not have much effect, whereas rises of 5.4 C may have a profound effect. But the actual data, as opposed to the models, suggest a modest temperature rise of just over 1 C."
## [3569] "Not just Damon and Kunens (already mentioned here )by chance, I have found yet another Science paper (this time Broecker from August 1975 ) making it clear that, for a few years up to then, the general consensus among scientists had been that the world was cooling:"
## [3570] "All of which is why I tried (badly) to make the counter argument that if (according to Oreskes) skeptics are motivated by their belief in defence of an ideology of laissez-faire governence, opposition to government regulation (sic), then the opposite might also explain the warmist viewpoint. Now I take your previous comment that it is not down simple party political faultlines but"
## [3571] "Other left-wing academics who understand the illogic of confident assertion, such as Mr. Obamas, say nothing rather than undermine positions that they personally support, ideals such as environmental protection and social justice. So they sell out philosophically, backing off from the skepticism they would normally practice."
## [3572] "I asked Professor Hegerl about the now embarrassingly large discrepancy between the IPCCs medium-term interval of temperature predictions made in 1990 and the observed outturn in the subsequent quarter of a century, which was only half the IPCCs central estimate. The IPCC had accordingly halved its predicted interval of medium-term warming from degrees per decade in 1990 to degrees per decade in 2013. Outturn since 1979, on all measures, had been closer to 0.1 than 0.2 degrees per decade."
## [3573] "Art exhibit portrays the wildly incoherent message from the climate science community, and the lemmings who follow them ."
## [3574] "The animation below shows how they reduced both the pre-1940 warming, and the post-1940 cooling. Neither are explainable by global warming theory, so government expertsmade both largely disappear."
## [3575] "Bill Kininmonth knows a lot about climate science, he is a meteorologist and he was the head of Australias National Climate Centre from 1986 to 1998. He is also a well known global warming skeptic and is particularly critical of the idea that the principles for sustaining the greenhouse effect are well understood. While this may seem like a ridiculous proposition, indeed the greenhouse effect is the underpinning science for the hypothesis of dangerous global warming, in a recent letter to the Federation of Australian Scientists and Technologists (FASTS) he explains how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are neither consistent in their explanation for the greenhouse effect nor provide a mechanism that accords with the global average earth energy budget."
## [3576] "The broad conclusion is that the multi-decadal global climate models are unable to to accurately simulate the linear trends of surface and tropospheric temperatures for the 1979-1999 time period on the regional and tropical zonally-averaged spatial scale. Their ability to skillfully simulate the global averages surface and tropospheric temperature trend on this time scale is, at best, inconclusive."
## [3577] "Washington, DC, June 7, 2001 The National Academy of Sciences report, released today, has already been characterized as offering further confirmation of global warming alarmism. The Competitive Enterprise Institute points out the report actually confirms that major uncertainties still remain in the current scientific understanding of climate change."
## [3578] "In addition, these two data sets use entirely different measurement techniques. The modern data comes from thermometers and satellites, measurement approaches that we understand fairly well. The earlier data comes from some sort of proxy analysis (ice cores, tree rings, sediments, etc.) While we know these proxies generally change with temperature, there are still a lot of questions as to their accuracy and, perhaps more importantly for us here, whether they vary linearly or have any sort of attenuation of the peaks. For example, recent warming has not shown up as strongly in tree ring proxies, raising the question of whether they may also be missing rapid temperature changes or peaks in earlier data for which we dont have thermometers to back-check them (this is an oft-discussed problem called proxy divergence)."
## [3579] "The paper presents a detailed overview of the surface temperature measuring stations, with Europe covered for more than 150 years and the US for more than 110 years. From a historical perspective land mass is not well covered and, except for Europe, the US, and eastern China, the bulk of the land mass is not well covered today. Surface sea coverage is spotty, at best, distributed in a few areas in the world, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere. The paper also discusses the manipulation of the surface record by NOAA, but not the one in 2015. It suggests that one cannot use the surface data to define or calculate an average temperature."
## [3580] "Consider again the graph of global temperatures in Figure1. We cannot tell if global temperatures are significantly increasing just by looking at the graph. Moreover, the process that generates global temperaturesEarth??s climate systemis extremely complicated. Hence determining whether there is a significant increase is likely to be difficult."
## [3581] "2. You can??t get accurate CO2 measurements from samples taken on the side of an active volcano that is outgassing CO2."
## [3582] "Climate Models Performing Poorly Compared to Actual Temperatures"
## [3583] "The top panel shows my emulation of the Mann NH and SH iHAD (land-ocean) reconstructions using the AD800 network (no splicing), together with the Mannian iHad instrumental (I haen??t parsed the relationship of this to HAD and am just using it as is). In the panel below that, I did the same thing using all proxies except the Tiljander sediments. As you see, there is a profound difference particularly in the SH, where the 20th century is not in the slightest anomalous according to this information. Another odd point in the bottom panel version is that the NH 11th century which is believed to be one of the ???warm?? centers of the MWP emerges, together with the late 17th century LIA, as one of the coldest times of the millennium ??? something that doesn??t make a whole lot of sense, even for MWP opponents. At present, I don??t know which proxies are leading to this result."
## [3584] "I stopped watching commercial network news in the '80s, but still had PBS' MacNeil/Lehrer NewsHour and its trademark two-side analysis of major news. Gradually after 2002, the lack of global warming skeptic scientists offering rebuttal to their IPCC guests began bothering me, so I wrote and asked about it, starting in 2007. I also started writing to the Media Research Center this year, asking them to include PBS when they criticized broadcast news outlets' lack of balance in global warming stories. Long story short, the PBS Ombudsman answered on 12/17 (here, 2/3rds down the page at the headline \"Hot About Warming\"), and Tim Graham at MRC's NewsBusters also wrote a nice 12/21 analysis of PBS' response."
## [3585] "It has been severely criticised for deliberately and grossly exaggerating and distorting the issues and I understand that the recently published Summary for Policymakers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) contradicts a number of Mr. Gores major contentions. This, in contrast, has had virtually no publicity and no"
## [3586] "Because the models fail to properly simulate those naturally occurring processes, they have to double the observed rate of warming of the surfaces of the global oceans in order to properly simulate the warming rate of land surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and to melt Arctic sea ice."
## [3587] "\"In the peer-reviewed literature, they've tried to explain away this lull,\" said Morano. \"In the proceedings of the National Academy of Science a year or two ago they had a study blaming Chinese coal use for the lack of global warming. So, in an ironic twist, global warming proponents are now claiming that that coal use is saving us from dangerous global warming.\""
## [3588] "Presumably somebody added the line and in doing so provided a general range for the MWP and the LIA. By eyeball the MWP covers A.D. 950 to 1350, and the LIA from A.D. 1350 to 1900. This does not match with the numbers in the text, particularly for the LIA with numbers attributed to Grove of 150 to 450 years ago or A.D. 1540 to 1840. There are a few interesting comments that needed correction for the politically motivated 2001 IPCC Report. In referring to the MWP, they note,"
## [3589] "Its a simple question: What is the temperature of the earth? But for those who live here it has no simple answer, nor ever will haveonly approximations. For it not only depends on where you put the thermometer, but also, apparently, on who interprets it. For if you own the dataset, you can reduce older temperatures and increase recent ones, just as NASA has been doing, and give the impression of greater warming. Naughty, naughty. more"
## [3590] "Now a one in 20 years rainout is NOT a freak event. Its a 1 in 20 unusual but normal event. What is odd is having a 1 in 20 freak rain event in what is supposed to be a Drought Of Historic Proportions Thus my complaint about the Palmer Drought Index when used with buggered temperature data."
## [3591] "If making statements such as The Earths climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming is communicating clearly and objectively, then god help us. Such alarmist and unscientific language give all of us good reason to challenge statements like this. Which is unfortunately what didnt happen, back at the NYT blog."
## [3592] "Climategate, and the dishonorable response to its revelations by some official scientific bodies, show that scientists are under pressure to toe the orthodox party line on climate change, and receive many benefits for doing so. That's another reason for suspicion."
## [3593] "As two further examples of selection bias from Thomas et. al. plants, the World Wildlife Federation estimates there are 80,000 plant species in the Amazon region (nobody really knows). Thomas et. al. selected 9 (but did not say which 0.01%), and modeled a 69-87% extinction risk for those. Those estimates became part of the simple plant averages for all 4 regions. Thomas et. al. selected 243 out of roughly 400 species of South African Proteaceae (afrikanns suikerbossie or sugarbushes, of which there are 80 generi and roughly 1600 species worldwide including the familiar macadamia nut). South African Proteaceae grow mainly in a specialized Cape Hope ecosystem known as the Fynbos, which covers just 6.7% of South Africa. The Queensland EBA trick was also applied to plants."
## [3594] "The answer was devastating. Out of the 95 data series in the latest Mann paper that covered the entire last 1,000 years, only 25 carried the hockey stick signal. Three of these series are lake sediments in Finland which are corrupted by recent urban development and the rest are from bristle-cone pine trees in the US Southwest that have been challenged by other researchers."
## [3595] "Willis Eschenbach has an open letter at WUWT which absolutely excoriates Phil Climategate Jones for his lies to the public and to Willis. The letter is quite strongly worded, places the FOI lies in context and is worth a read. The critique is strong enough that it extends not only to Phil, but to his teammembers as well as to the kangaroo investigations of Climategate."
## [3596] "I have posted many times on the numerous problems with the historic temperature reconstructions that were used in Manns now-famous \"hockey stick.\" I dont have any problems with scientists trying to recreate history from fragmentary evidence, but I do have a problem when they overestimate the certainty of their findings or enter the analysis trying to reach a particular outcome. Just as an archaeologist must admit there is only so much that can be inferred from a single Roman coin found in the dirt, we must accept the limit to how good trees are as thermometers. The problem with tree rings (the primary source for Manns hockey stick) is that they vary in width for any number of reasons, only one of which is temperature."
## [3597] "Erroneous greenhouse effect assumptions are only the tip of the iceberg for the multitude of other climate model failings"
## [3598] "In this case, the models are showing an average energy deficit that is ten times that of the observations and remember, at four years the actual climate is back to pre-eruption conditions, but the models?? deficit is still increasing, and will do so for several more years before starting back towards the line."
## [3599] "(Again, let me stress that I am describing the impacts on projected global temperatures. There is growing evidence that actual global temperatures are not evolving the way projections indicate that they should. So, the degree to which these temperature projections described above reflect what really will happen in the future, is far from certain.)"
## [3600] "The rate of sea level rise varies form place to place and depends on a lot of factors. Changes in ice inventories, currents, and geological effects, such as glacial isostatic adjustment all contribute and are worthy of study and measurement. But they should no be used to foster panic for political ends."
## [3601] "And in an upcoming post, well illustrate how poorly the models simulate daily maximum and minimum temperatures and the difference between them, the diurnal temperature range. I should be publishing that post within the next week."
## [3602] "The consensus Cook considered was the standard definition: that Man had caused most post-1950 warming. Even on this weaker definition the true consensus among published scientific papers is now demonstrated to be not 97.1%, as Cook had claimed, but only 0.3%."
## [3603] "Gleick, who was forced to step down from the \"scientific ethics and integrity\" task force of the American Geophysical Union because of his fraud, failed -- the stolen memos revealed nothing untoward or even unexpected about Heartland's operations. But his actions show just how desperate climate scaremongers have become."
## [3604] "Leading German scientists are now spreading fear among children at schools. Is this the indoctrination part of the Masterplan?"
## [3605] "It all comes down to uncertainty in proxy records vs uncertainty in climate model output. Liu et al. dive into both in great detail and conclude that there are probable errors in both. They further note that the errors in the climate history data might propagate as errors through the models, since those data are used as inputs to drive the models. Even so, the authors conclude: ?Although the potential biases in the reconstruction may contribute to the data-model discrepancy, it is also important to recognize that the data-model discrepancy can be caused by potential biases in current models. Indeed, even after considering the seasonal bias effect, the models still fail to produce some important features in the reconstruction.?"
## [3606] "Based on my analysis above, I would say that the Times was definitely onto somethingglobal temperatures are rising at a pace so slow as to begin to raise questions as to whether they are being modeled correctly and are starting to suggest we have already left behind the world of possibilities portrayed in the panels report."
## [3607] "The exponential ???hockey-stick?? curves of the IPCC et al emphasize just how much difference extra carbon supposedly makes. Few people realize that the exponential rising curves come from feedback factors (which are the fatal flaw of the science behind the scare campaign)."
## [3608] "Climate models are known to poorly simulate clouds, and given clouds?? very strong effect on the climate systemsome types cooling the Earth either by shading it or by transporting heat up and cold down in thunderstorms, and others warming the Earth by blocking outgoing radiationit remains highly plausible that there is no net positive feedback from water vapor."
## [3609] "4. For the German Government, do the arguments made by Fred Singer and other arguments presented have merit and are they ???enlightening??? How do you assess the statements by Mr Singer that ???Politicians that are embedded in climate change are more dangerous than climate change itself???"
## [3610] "Other eco-zealots in attendance were Robert May (a zoologist) who is on record declaring the world was on a calamitous trajectory due to global warming.The BBC was recently forced to admit that the seminar was organised by the Cambridge Media and Environment Programme (CMEP), established by pro-green activist Joe Smith and BBC reporter Roger Harrabin(co-founder of CMEP). Harrabin is also on the UEAs Advisory board of the Tyndall Centre raising serious conflict of interest issues. Pointedly, not one of the attendees deals with attribution science, the physics of global warming."
## [3611] "In the end, the Committee basically took the UEA scientists? word for it, giving them the benefit of the doubt, and saying that the scientists were blameless. Even this committee, however, did find that ?The leaked emails appear to show a culture of non-disclosure at CRU and instances where information may have been deleted to avoid disclosure, particularly to climate change skeptics.? Finding an anti-scientific culture at CRU and also that the CRU?s Director?s reputation remained intact, as the Inquiry did, is political doublespeak of the highest order. Its finding should be viewed in that light."
## [3612] "The world's great religions long ago ended the practice of offering absolution in exchange for cash. In the global warming age, however, large emitters of carbon, such as former Vice President Al Gore (whose 20 room eight bathroom mansion in Nashville consumes as much power as twenty average Americans) claim to use \"offsets.\" Gore and the global warming elite have advocated purchasing carbon offsets which allow them to continue their rich lifestyles guilt free. They are also willing to sell these offsets to the rest of us."
## [3613] "The third pillar of science is peer group assessment. This allows for validation of your thesis by fellow scientists and is usually done in confidence. However, the entire process was set aside by the IPCC while preparing the report. Thus, it has zero scientific value."
## [3614] "The different hemispheric records in the mid-twentieth century have never been convincingly explained. The most likely explanation is atmospheric aerosolsHowever, there are no aerosol measurements to confirm that interpretation. If there were adequate understanding of the relation between fossil fuel burning and aerosol properties it would be possible to infer the aerosol properties in the past century. But such understanding requires global measurements of aerosols with sufficient detail to define their properties and their effect on clouds, a task that remains elusive"
## [3615] "3) The only evidence now for the theory of dangerous carbon dioxide-induced global warming is the IPCC models, which assume, incorrectly it now appears, that clouds exacerbate the warming due to carbon dioxide."
## [3616] "Chris Colose , an AGW advocate, attempted to criticize Richard Lindzen's demonstration that positive feedbacks cannot dominate . Well, the best thing he could do was to use some alternative graphs to argue that the current models underestimate the negative feedbacks by a factor of 2-3 rather than 5-7. This factor of 2-3 corresponds to no feedbacks. Well, a multiplicative discrepancy by a factor of 2-3 is still a pretty bad rating for the models, isn't it?"
## [3617] "Overall, the results of this study support the hypothesis that published temperature data are contaminated with nonclimatic influences that add up to a net warming bias, and that efforts should be made to properly quantify these effects."
## [3618] "natural thermostats, including clouds, which can trap heat, turn up the temperature or reflect sunlight and help cool the planet. So why is none of this reflected in the modelling? It is situating the appreciation again."
## [3619] "2014: The host of MSNBCs The Ed Show promoted Soviet-style re-education for climate skeptic politicians by conducting an on-air poll on the question Should climate-denying Republicans be forced to take a basic earth science course?"
## [3620] "Until such time as an independent inquiry actually addresses these concerns in a thorough and, yes, unbiased manner, Climategate will remain an open wound in the side of climate science."
## [3621] "The inference is that climate model predictions should be used to drive global energy policy. This is the simple linear model of scientism, that has been resoundingly debunked particularly for a complex problem like climate change."
## [3622] "THE ATLANTIC MULTIDECADAL OSCILLATION IS NOT A FORCED COMPONENT OF THE CLIMATE MODELS"
## [3623] "Researchers Gabriel Vecchi and Brian Soden (from GDFL and the University of Miami respectively) examined how anthropogenic global warming may, at least according to climate models, alter the environment of the tropical Atlantic and thus possibly tropical cyclone statistics there as well. Recall that it is the tropical cyclones that form in the Atlantic Ocean that are the ones that cause the greatest impact the United States. And also recall that there is still an on-going, sometimes rather heated, debate about whether natural or anthropogenic (as if somehow we arent part of nature) causes are thought to be responsible for the increase in storminess since the early-1970s, as well as whether or not a continued enhancement to the earths greenhouse effect will lead to more and/or more intense hurricanes."
## [3624] "This article is an attempt to describe some of the early results from the Antarctic reconstruction recently published on the cover of Nature which demonstrated a warming trend in the Antarctic since 1956. Actual surface temperatures in the Antarctic are hard to come by with only about 30 stations prior to 1980 recorded through tedious and difficult efforts by scientists in the region. In the 80s more stations were added including some automatic weather stations (AWS) which sit in remote areas and report the temperature information automatically. Unfortunately due to the harsh conditions in the region many of these stations have gaps in their records or very short reporting times (a few years in some cases). Very few stations are located in the interior of the Antarctic, leaving the trend for the central portion of the continent relatively unknown. The location of the stations is shown on the map below."
## [3625] "The direct warming effect of doubling the CO2 in the air is generally agreed to be little more than 1 C. However climate models produce exaggerated warming forecasts by assuming that strongly positive or amplifying temperature feedbacks, such as the increased capacity of warmer air to carry water vapour, a greenhouse gas. They assume that these positive feedbacks will turn 1 C of direct warming into 3 C of imagined catastrophe."
## [3626] "We found that two key physical processes, which were often overlooked in previous process models, were actually essential for accurately describing whether sea ice loss is reversible, said Eisenman, a professor of climate dynamics at Scripps Oceanography. One relates to how heat moves from the tropics to the poles and the other is associated with the seasonal cycle. None of the relevant previous process modeling studies had included both of these factors, which led them to spuriously identify a tipping point that did not correspond to the real world."
## [3627] "Early on in my statements about Climategate, I became aware that my statements were looked upon very unfavorably by some scientists, particularly those that were vocal advocates of the IPCC and UNFCCC policies. As an example, Peter Webster related a conversation at a professional meeting in 2010 with a young scientist who said something like: You know, Judy is REALLY unpopular among the scientists at lab. Im not sure, but I think she might be right. I can say that to you but of course I wouldnt dare say that at the lab."
## [3628] "In setting the stage for their most interesting study, the authors say \"many scientists believe that a warmer climate will result in elevated summer temperatures and more frequent and intense heat waves,\" and that \"according to some predictions, heat-related mortality is expected to increase considerably as global temperatures continue to rise,\" which is, of course, standard climate-alarmist dogma. But must this necessarily be the case? What was done"
## [3629] "'Fakegate' has reminded the public of the prevalent fraud and deception perpetrated by global warming alarmism - the IPCC's hurricane \"science\" is one such example"
## [3630] "El Nios didnt only dominate during the 1990s. For some reason known only to Dana, he overlooked the fact that the 1976/77 El Nio started the period when El Nio events dominated the late 20 th Century. Thus, using Danas logic, El Nio events enhanced the observed global warming from the mid-1970s to the turn of the centurythe first 25 years of the past 40 years Dana chose for his discussion."
## [3631] "True, the British Antarctic Survey disagrees with the IPCC and maintains that the WAIS is in imminent danger of collapse, but so far even the IPCC has not bought that alarmist story."
## [3632] "Government research funding for at least 25 years has hinged on the assumption of human causation, and as I have always said, if you fund scientists to find a connection, they will indeed find it. That's why the resulting research that is published also is dominated by explanations involving human causation."
## [3633] "Their real agenda was disclosed in a Climatic Research Unit (CRU) leaked email dated December 2007 from senior writer Richard Littlemore to Michael Mann."
## [3634] "USHCN published only their adjusted data (F52) for August, and did not publish the raw (raw) data."
## [3635] "Congress should hold hearings, demand an accounting of agency expenditures, require solid evidence for every climate claim and regulation, and cross-examine Administration officials on details. It should slash EPA and other agency budgets, so they cannot keep giving billions to pressure groups, propagandists and attack dogs. Honesty, transparency, accountability and a much shorter leash are long overdue."
## [3636] "The twentieth century indeed was warm. We know this to be so because temperatures could be measured using instruments designed for that purpose. What they indicate is that global temperature increased by about three-quarters of a degree Celsius. The question becomes: was that rate of warming unusual in a longer-term context? Well probably never be certain because there were no comparable instruments taking measurements in earlier centuries. Barring the unlikely discovery the Catholic Church operated a secret, well-calibrated global thermometric measurement campaign during the Crusades, for example, any comparison of contemporary measurements with those of the past will be, by definition, fraught with error."
## [3637] "Pielke's work was backed up by data and, in many cases, by the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But that didn't matter to Podesta's attack dogs at ThinkProgress. Long before his congressional testimony, Pielke had been the subject of a years-long smear campaign led by ThinkProgress's Joe Romm. In fact, Romm had what can only be described as an obsession with Pielke. In a recent Twitter posting, Pielke wrote: \"Propaganda works: I count more than 160 articles at the Center for American Progress trashing me over the years.\""
## [3638] "You cannot trust the UN's World Meteorological Organization which like the IPCC is just part of a vast matrix of groups that have been so severely corrupted by the global warming/climate change hoax that one must exercise caution when hearing its forecasts. If they are for anything beyond two weeks hence, you would be wise to be dubious."
## [3639] "Didnt Hansen predict catastrophic sea level rise and increased hurricanes within 20 years in 1988? Doesnt anyone look at his record of prediction? Pushing the scare seems to be the thing."
## [3640] "Dr. Andrew Shepherd , an IPCC author who works at the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, said the UOB study used calculations that appeared to have overlooked shifts in snowfall , noting that the \"new estimates of ice loss computed (from the thinning of the ice) are far too high, because the glaciers in this sector just haven't speeded up that much.\""
## [3641] "Despite this, people like Mann continue their climatological malpractice, and are even accorded respect. Such shoddy workmanship in any other field would put the principal into another line of work."
## [3642] "Van Haren et al . conclude their report by declaring that \"it is important that we improve our understanding of circulation changes, in particular related to the cause of the apparent mismatch between observed and modeled circulation trends over the past century,\" citing Haarsma et al . (2013); for if the models don't improve in this regard, neither will their precipitation predictions improve. References"
## [3643] "B. There is an implicit assumption (not stated, granted, but not caveated either) that the proxy recons are historical records equivalent to the instrument period (thus allowing the point (1) examination). If the proxies are contaminated by CO2 or cherry-picked then that affects the results. Same issue with the instrumental record (if it is inaccurate)?????in particular, the instrumental record is based on ground stations, not on satellite or balloon measurements. That might be fine. But it should be noted."
## [3644] "Interestingly, reanalysis also do not seem to correctly reproduce the ocean warming rates and lie well outside the observation uncertainty at different depths and times. Both the hiatus and the net amount of heat absorbed by the ocean below 700 m are overestimated. Reanalyses are also inconsistent with ocean observations, in terms of the vertical and regional distribution of heating."
## [3645] "When all was said and done, therefore, Yang and Wu were forced to conclude that (4) \"it remains a great challenge to improve model ability in simulating and predicting the North Atlantic climate variability.\""
## [3646] "A third problem I have with Ron??s article: he uses ???falsifiable predictions?? of the future as evidence supporting his case! Really? Well, we??ve already had abundant predictions of what would happen by now from modelers like James Hansen that have turned out to be wrong. There you go, skeptics have real falsified predictions they can point to?? .not predictions of what might happen 10 years from now."
## [3647] "When I refer to the IPCC dogma, it is the religious importance that the IPCC holds for this cadre of scientists; they will tolerate no dissent, and seek to trample and discredit anyone who challenges the IPCC. Some are mid to late career middle ranking scientists who have done ok in terms of the academic meritocracy. Others were still graduate students when they were appointed as lead authors for the IPCC. These scientists have used to IPCC to gain a seat at the big tables where they can play power politics with the collective expertise of the IPCC, to obtain personal publicity, and to advance their careers. This advancement of their careers is done with the complicity of the professional societies and the institutions that fund science. Eager for the publicity, high impact journals such as Nature, Science, and PNAS frequently publish sensational but dubious papers that support the climate alarm narrative."
## [3648] "Onemajorconclusion that should be reached from the unpredictedwide ranging severe cold and snow this winter, is that multi-decadal global climate modelshave demonstratedno skill in predicting such regional events which clearly have a major impact on society and the environment."
## [3649] "Kimoto's prior papers & posts also discuss additional false assumptions of climate models including a mathematical error in calculation of the Planck response parameter, and limitations of the potential greenhouse warming of the top ocean layer due to penetration depth, and others, proving the climate models are overheated and far too sensitive to man-made CO2."
## [3650] "This statement is untrue even if Osborn and Briffa are granted the one stated qualifier and another unstated qualifier. The ???high temporal?? resolution qualifier is not defined; this qualifier excludes several series from Crowley and Lowery and Moberg et al 2005 and prefers tree rings. The second (unstated) qualifier is that the series go back to 1000. This excludes the majority of the series. (However, Briffa et al 2001 has a very large population of series and a serious ???divergence problem??. The Briffa et al 2001 network is one of two networks used in Rutherford et al 2005. The above statement is obviously false in respect to this population.) It is also false even with the long series used in these studies. There are many more than 14 series that cumulatively occur in these studies: there are Moroccan series used in MBH99, a number of oddball series in Crowley and Lowery 2000. I??m in the process of making a definitive count but it is far more than 14."
## [3651] "It is stunning that they parallel CO2 with a blanket, when anybody with a basic grasp of physics knows that the effect of a blanket, and indeed an actual greenhouse, is to block CONVECTION, which is a major process of cooling."
## [3652] "In other words, \"quite different model physics\" of convection are used in high-resolution models to simulate clouds vs. the over-simplified physics of convection utilized by low-resolution global general circulation models (GCMs). The IPCC uses GCMs to create its global warming projections, and thus it is not reassuring that the primary heat transfer mechanism in the troposphere - convection - is oversimplified in these models ."
## [3653] "The bottom line remains Ed Hawkins figure that compares climate model simulations for regions where the surface observations exist. This is the appropriate way to compare climate models to surface observations, and the outstanding issue is that the climate models and observations disagree."
## [3654] "One wonders if Mann didn??t apply his ??? special Mannomatic math ???, as he did to his ???hockey stick?? to the Box and Colgan (2010) reconstructed data to get the large divergence between accumulation and loss we see in Mann and Rahmstorf??s Figure 6."
## [3655] "Roy Spencer, from the University of Alabama, discovered the error just a few days ago which according to meteorologist Anthony Watts, accounts for 24% of the 0.74 deg C global warming claimed for 1905-2005."
## [3656] "Yet isn't it remarkable that Al Gore, who has recently become extremely wealthy, has never felt obliged to publicly disclose his large stakes in green market industries through his Generation Investment Management firm, or in Chicago Climate Exchange cap-and-trade legislation interests? Would you trust a financial advisor who committed the same ethical breach?"
## [3657] "Mr. D??Aleo and Mr. Watts provide some amazing graphs showing that the jumps in measured global temperature occurred just when the number of weather stations was cut. But there is another bias that this change to more urban stations also exacerbates. Recorded temperatures in more urban areas rise over time simply because more densely populated areas produce more heat. Combining the greater share of weather stations in more urban areas over time with this urban heat effect also tends to increase the rate that recorded temperatures tend to rise over time."
## [3658] "Hard on the heels of the report of the one-day British Parliamentary inquiry into the Climategate scandal comes the report of the grandly-named International Science Assessment Panel set up by the University of East Anglia (UEA). Surprise, surprise, it finds nothing wrong except a few lapses in concentration caused by all the hard work climate scientists are doing to save the planet. Unfortunately for the alarmist cheerleaders who will treat these reports as complete exoneration, they suffer from exactly the same problems as the scientific reports Climategate centered around. They are sloppy and incomplete while pretending to be the comprehensive answer. As such, they damage the authority of science just as much as Climategate itself."
## [3659] "Most of the key studies in the IPCC report have not archived their data and refuse to release their data or software code to any skeptic for replication"
## [3660] "Quantifying the Lack of Consistency between Climate Model Projections and Observations of the Evolution of the Earths Average Surface Temperature since the Mid-20 th Century"
## [3661] "A guest post today at a Dutch climate blogby Dr. John Christy notes that climate \" models, on average, depict the last 34 years as warming about 1.5 times what actually occurred\" and that the model predictions diverge from observations by even more in the atmospheric layers most affected by greenhouse gases . According to Dr. Christy, \" Since this increased warming in the upper layers is a signature of greenhouse gas forcing in models, and it is not observed, this raises questions about the ability of models to represent the true vertical heat flux processes of the atmosphere and thus to represent the climate impact of the extra greenhouses gases we are putting into the atmosphere\" and \" models, on average, have been overly sensitive\" to the effect of greenhouse gases."
## [3662] "However, climate scientists are saying that sea level rise is not necessarily linear. I believe them. The Konsensus Krazies didnt help the level of discussion by saying that the Greenland Ice Cap could melt and that we should actually be concerned by it."
## [3663] "I just think they dont understand the climate, he said of climatologists. Their computer models are full of fudge factors."
## [3664] "Models are not ready to predict the climate. Misusing computers to spew out multiple ?what-if? scenarios is unscientific. This approach simply means ?if all our unproven assumptions are correct, this could happen.?"
## [3665] "Ive told this story before but it requires repeating because of awareness of climate science corruption. Even skeptics realize claims of incompetence are inadequate. Official Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate science was completely orchestrated for a premeditated result. T.R.Wigleys 1983 paper The pre-industrial carbon dioxide level was pivotal in the evolution of climate science corruption. It was a flawed paper that cherry-picked data to claim pre-industrial CO2 level was 270 ppm. G.S. Callendar did the same thing (diagram), as Zbigniew Jaworowski illustrated in a paper to a 2004 US Senate Committee."
## [3666] "When future generations try to understand how the world got carried away around the end of the 20th century by the panic over global warming, few things will amaze them more than the part played in stoking up the scare by the fiddling of official temperature data. There was already much evidence of this seven years ago, when I was writing my history of the scare, The Real Global Warming Disaster. But now another damning example has been uncovered by Steven Goddards US blog Real Science, showing how shamelessly manipulated has been one of the worlds most influential climate records, the graph of US surface temperature records published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)."
## [3667] "A climate criminal alters their own data to makethe climate appear to be warming."
## [3668] "According to one of the papers, the current generation of climate models (CMIP5) are worse at simulating past global climate than the previous generation of models (CMIP3); i.e., the models are making giant leaps, but in the wrong direction."
## [3669] "Besides the White House's extreme scare-mongering, the report's credibility is also D.O.A. due to its blatant falsehood regarding \"CO2-caused\" warming of the globe and the U.S."
## [3670] "The multi-model mean are not expected to present the year-to-year variations in sea surface temperature associated with the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Some of the models simulate ENSO; others dont. The models that do attempt to simulate ENSO do a poor job of it. (This is documented in numerous peer-reviewed papers. Refer to the post Guilyardi et al (2009) Understanding El Nio in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges ) Each model produces ENSO events on its own schedule; that is, the modeled ENSO events do not reproduce the observed frequency, duration, and magnitude of El Nio and La Nia events. Since the multi-model mean presents the average of all of those modeled out-of-synch ENSO signals, they are smoothed out. For this reason, we are only concerned with the disparity in the modeled and observed trends."
## [3671] "5. Any climate policy can be justified only on the grounds of rational expectations about future climate response to human activity. Models can provide those rational expectations only if they are validated by real-world observation. But in this case, the models not only are not validated but are invalidatedfalsified. The models are wrong. Therefore they provide no rational basis for predictions about future global temperature, and no rational basis for any policy whatever."
## [3672] "Many \"climate scientists\" built their entire careers on this funding; and so it is not surprising that they became so completely reliant on this conditional lifeline, that they became single-mindedly focused on achieving the ends for which they were commissionedand viciously attacking any intruders who may threaten that lifeline."
## [3673] "When I noticed from the hydrographic data that the Pacific Ocean heat content has been decreasing since 2003 or so, I was very surprised and puzzled, Lee told Eos . And when I found a large heat increase in the Indian Ocean, I was almost convinced that there was something wrong with the hydrographic data."
## [3674] "More worryingly for Australias sovereignty, governance and parliamentary democracy, your false claims raise questions as to your sincerity and allegiance. Your position on climate was established and stated in my previous correspondence as unfounded and contradicting science. Your repeated failure to present empirical scientific evidence and especially your repeated failure to specify any errors in my work when combined with your continued pushing of unscientific policy reveals more worrying concerns."
## [3675] "The scientific method dictates that when the models aren?t working, it?s time to rework the models and assumptions, not double down by invoking unicorns and leprechauns to explain why up is really down. Instead, if we follow the logic of the scientists that ?cooling is really warning? to its conclusion, then the next ice age will be the definitive conclusion of decades of global warming."
## [3676] "Curiously, while Meehl et al (2013) depends on El Nio and La Nia processes, they never use the terms El Nio or La Nia in the paper. They elected to present the effects of ENSO on the Pacific basin in an abstract form, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation.The problem with that:If the climate models show no skill at being able to simulate the processes of ENSO on short-term bases, theres no reason to believe they perform any better on decadal or multidecadal bases."
## [3677] "According to McKintyre, there was no response, but within about an hour, GISS pulled down the erroneous data, citing a mishap and pointing the finger of blame upstream to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Adminstration (NOAA). NOAAs Deputy Director of Communications, Scott Smullens, tells DailyTech that NOAA is responsible only for temperature readings in the US, not those in other nations.The error not only affected October data, but due to the complex algorithm GISS uses to convert actual temperature readings into their output results, altered the previously published values for several other months as well. The values for August 2008, for instance, changed by 0.11C and the global anomaly as far back as 2005 increased by a hundredth of a degree."
## [3678] "Im sure their (seemingly endless) climate model circle jerk is very fulfilling, but they should be preparing for the floods which will be coming down the Colorado River in a few weeks."
## [3679] "A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and the earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse gases than predicted."
## [3680] "\"The fact is that the planet is changing faster than even pessimists expected,\" Krugman insisted. How fast the earth is changing is open to all kinds of debate, but short of an asteroid strike it won't change as fast as the global warming pessimists have claimed."
## [3681] "The key lesson to be learned is that not only must scientific knowledge about climate change be publicly owned the I.P.C.C. does a fairly good job of this according to its own terms but the very practices of scientific enquiry must also be publicly owned, in the sense of being open and trusted. From outside, and even to the neutral, the attitudes revealed in the emails do not look good. To those with bigger axes to grind it is just what they wanted to find."
## [3682] "Scientists tell Congress that warming evidence is 'overwhelming' - The Hill's E2-Wire Twenty-five U.S. scientists issued an open letter to Congress today that calls evidence of human-induced global warming \"overwhelming\" and accuses opponents of emissions curbs of misrepresenting emails among climate scientists hacked from a U.K. research institute. ... \"Even without including analyses from the U.K. research center from which the emails were stolen, the body of evidence underlying our understanding of human-caused global warming remains robust,\" they write. Note that the letter is signed by ClimateGate scientist Ben Santer! 1. We were constantly told about an alleged \"consensus\" from 2,500 climate scientists. Why are there only 25 actual names on this list? 2. When people claim that the evidence is overwhelming, why don't they ever tell us specifically what that evidence is?"
## [3683] "Moreover, most of the discussion is highly politicized. For instance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change undercuts its own credibility by allowing government-appointed non-scientists to write the well-publicized report summaries. Many of its predictions are no more reliable than guesses. Notes H. Sterling Burnett:"
## [3684] "First, there is a widespread misconception that the reference to a decline refers to concealing an observed fall in global temperatures since a peak in 1998, the warmest year for some time. Instead, it really has to do with graphic trickery suggesting that man-made CO2 emissions over the past 40 years have produced a nearly vertical temperature escalation."
## [3685] "During the mid-20 th Century flat temperature period, Figure 4, the models do reasonably good job between the latitudes of 60S-60N, but fail to capture the observed warming of the Southern Ocean and the polar-amplified cooling over the Arctic."
## [3686] "The problem with these sorts of studies is that no class of proxy (tree ring, ice core isotopes) is unambiguously correlated to temperature and, over and over again, authors pick proxies that confirm their bias and discard proxies that do not. This problem is exacerbated by author pre-knowledge of what individual proxies look like, leading to biased selection of certain proxies over and over again into these sorts of studies."
## [3687] "All three models generated robust annual mean warming (?0.5 C) throughout the Holocene (Fig. 1, black and yellow), resulting in a model-data inconsistency in global annual temperature of ?1 C. Discrepancies were different during last millennium and the start of the deglaciation. Over the last thousand years, climate models generate a global cooling toward the Little Ice Age (LIA)consistent with the M13 reconstruction only after adding realistic volcanic aerosols and solar variability (Fig. 1, Inset, gray line). During the early deglaciation both the proxy data and model show a large deglacial warming (3?4 C) overwhelming the data-model inconsistency."
## [3688] "And as Dr Goklany goes on to explain, the WHOs results use climate modelresults that apparently overstate the warming trend three-fold compared toobservations despite using 27% less greenhouse gas forcing."
## [3689] "Climate spin: Behind-the-scenes emails show profs evading questions"
## [3690] "A few days ago I published an article about the new alarmist hockey stick by Marcott et al. My take?"
## [3691] "In his peer-reviewed 1980 paper Apparent Trends of Mean Temperature in New Zealand Since 1930 , JWD Hessell found that exposures of most New Zealand weather stations have been affected by changes in shelter, screenage and/or urbanisation, all of which tend to increase the observed mean temperature. A systematic analysis reveals that no important change in annual mean temperature since 1930 has been found at those stations where the above factors are negligible."
## [3692] "I also askedhow much the biological effects of oceanic nutrient enrichment from melting icebergs and ice shelves he had discussed might affect the results of model-projections he had told us were based only on the physics. He admitted this was a good question and that uncertainty was high. Increased nutrients (particularly iron), lead to drawdown of co2 by plankton and the permanent removal of co2 in the formation of their shell which sink to the ocean bed when plankton die."
## [3693] "To put it fairly but bluntly, the global-warming alarmists have relied on a pathetic version of science in which computer models take precedence over data, and numerical averages of computer outputs are believed to be able to predict the future climate."
## [3694] "My own personal reaction to the rather lengthy reviews (12 pages worth) is that all of the reviewers rejected the idea that IPCC model projections could be compared in such a way that led to the conclusion that indicate cause for concern regarding the consistency between climate model projections and observed climate behavior under conditions of increasing anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions."
## [3695] "Climate scientists have determined that time began in 1979, and feel verycomfortable starting most of their trend lines in that year. When generating global warming propaganda, itis important to cherry pick the coldest year for starting your trend."
## [3696] "Marc started by making his point that many news stories about global warming science apply uneven labels to the advocates vs. the skeptics of catastrophic global warming theory, and that some more marginal media outlets have gone much farther, explicitly comparing climate skeptics to Holocaust deniers. Despite Marc mentioning it repeatedly, no one on the panel would comment on whether they thought such an outrageous comparison was justified."
## [3697] "Science will release Dr. Andrew Dessler's new paper on cloud feedback at 2 PM (EST) on Thursday and Dr. Roy Spencer will release a statement at CFACT's press conference which raises serious questions about the study and details its flaws. \"Andy Dessler's study will not stand hard scrutiny. COP16 delegates worried about the ongoing credibility problems of climate modeling will find no solace in Dessler's work,\" Spencer said."
## [3698] "Environmentalism, on the other hand, is deeply political. It asks for the reorganisation of the world (and other comments to that effect)"
## [3699] "But for the last 15 years, Earths surface temperatures have failed to rise, despite rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. All climate models predicted a rapid rise in global temperatures, in conflict with actual measured data. Todays models are often unable to predict weather conditions for a single season, let alone long-term climate trends."
## [3700] "So if they are using temperature and salinity to come up with pH, how can they determine that the ???ocean acidification?? they claim in the PR is truly a function of dissolved CO2, and not just part of the normal regional and seasonal salinity pattern? That concern is backed up by one of the images in a photo collage they present with the paper , which shows what seems to be a salinity image from the Aquarius instrument, note the arrow:"
## [3701] "In the mutli-decadal climate battle, organizations like Heartland have only recently erected a forum for scientists who do not embrace catastrophism, so that they may present their results and bypass what had been a media blackout. The initial, hockey-stick phase of the catastrophists response, while making use of tangential slurs about their opponents purportedly corrupt motivation, consisted largely in attempts at scientific counter-argument."
## [3702] "A major conclusion of our analysis is that there are large uncertainties associated with the surface temperature trends from the poorly-sited stations. Moreover rather than providing additional independent information, the use of the data from poorly-sited stations provides a false sense of confidence in the robustness of the surface temperature trend assessments."
## [3703] "The fact that we found it difficult to discern warming trends at many stations that are not located in rapidly developing urban areas may indicate that the actual increase in global temperature caused by anthropogenic perturbation is less pronounced than estimated in the last IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change ."
## [3704] "Rahmstorf is a real piece of work. When it comes to global sea level, he happily chucked the tide gauge data and instead used the 1992-2005 subset of the satellite data. But when it comes to local sea level data like the northeastern US, he happily ignores the satellite data and sticks religiously to tide gauge data."
## [3705] "3. INABILITY FOR GCM MODELS TO PROPERLY RESOLVE REGIONS OF OCEAN UPWELLING WHOSE COLD WATERS CAN ENHANCE THE OCEANIC UPTAKE OF CARBON DIOXIDE"
## [3706] "Though climate models have proved to be an obvious inconvenient truth, alarmists continue to ignore this elephant in the room."
## [3707] "In conclusion, the EPA Endangerment findings is the culmination of a several year effort for a small group of climate scientists and others to use their positions as lead authors on the IPCC, CCSP and NRC reports to promote a political agenda."
## [3708] "Rudman offensive but NZ temp record dubious"
## [3709] "The coalition alleged that the method used to collect national temperature records, which show a national warming trend of almost one degree Celsius in the past century, almost 50 per cent above the global average, had been unscientific. That had created an unrealistic and unreliable indication of climate warming, it said."
## [3710] "Independent data analyst Steven Goddard recently released a study of the officially adjusted U.S. temperature records used by NASA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other scientists who say they prove we are dangerously warming. (You didn't even know they adjust the raw data, did you?)"
## [3711] "Yet as we have seen time and time again, with the exception of a -0.05C cooling applied for UHI (which is woefully under-represented) all ???adjustments, improvements, and fiddlings?? to data applied by NCDC and other organizations always seem to result in an increased warming trend."
## [3712] "Gore Lied has a video you should see , wherein a certain Mr. Gore is, well, skewered."
## [3713] "Then along came an announcement by Mr Watts last Sunday that he had documented, and had ready for publication, the proof that the U.S. temperature record had been diddled. In particular his new analysis demonstrated that the reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled, with 92% of that over-estimation resulting from erroneous NOAA adjustments of well-sited stations upward . What Mr Hammer was explaining three years earlier, and for a longer period."
## [3714] "And even if all those adjustments were right, the warming trend would still be significantly lower than was projected by the collection of climate models cited in the most recent U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report."
## [3715] "Impressive though the panel was as a whole, it really was rather shabby for the scientists who surely know better to have sat there in silence while Ms. Macfarlane peddled her snake oil about a \"scientific consensus.\" Are they worried about being excluded from the right cocktail parties? If so, that is a display of moral cowardice unworthy of serious intellectuals."
## [3716] "In most fields of science, people would be laughed out of the room for making adjustments to the data which consistently support the authors well known bias. Nevertheless, we see this going on at USHCN and GISS. The effect of these adjustments is that the data is rotated counter-clockwise, as seen in video below for Laurel, Mississippi."
## [3717] "This need arises since even state-of-the-art weather and climate models cannot resolve all necessary processes and scales. Stochastic parameterizations have been shownto provide more skillful weather forecasts than traditional ensemble prediction methods, at least on timescaleswhere verification data exists. In addition, they have been shown to reduce longstanding climate biases, whichplay an important role especially for climate and climate change predictions."
## [3718] "But it is also possible that the vegetation which will be able to grow when the ground thaws will absorb the carbon dioxide. We still know very little about this. With the knowledge we have today we cannot say for sure whether the thawing tundra will absorb or produce more greenhouse gases in the future, says Margareta Johansson."
## [3719] "Most skeptics arrived at their doubts in the carbon dioxide theory of global warming by noting the discrepancies between that theory and empirical evidence. They are empiricists. Consequently, many skeptics are unaware of the basic model, or its power, because it has been irrelevant to them."
## [3720] "So a \"trick\" is just scientific shorthand for a \"good way to deal with a problem,\" not something \"secret.\" But RC ducks the real issue. Is the \"trick\" Phil Jones learned from Hockey Stick author Michael Mann a form of trickery? Does it create a false impression, as an illusionist does on stage, right out in the open, in front of an audience?"
## [3721] "Remember the criterion of science? Only falsifiable predictions yield the meaning of observations. Climate models do not give falsifiable predictions, especially not at the resolution of CO2-forcing. Therefore, they can give no causal meaning to increased atmospheric CO2. They cannot explain the warming climate. They can not predict the future climate. The observation of rising atmospheric CO2, alone, is not enough to certify anything except a rising level of atmospheric CO2. Knowing causality and predicting outcomes requires a falsifiable theory. Dr. Morrison hasn??t one, and neither does anyone else. Those who predict torrid climate futures literally do not know what they??re talking about. But that hasn??t stopped them from talking about it anyway. Dr. Morrison??s position on climate is indistinguishable from an intuitive alarm grounded in subjective certainties."
## [3722] "No one source really has specific \"reliable\" numbers and it varies anywhere from 23% to 40% depending on where you get your information. The reason more people are not falling for the global warming hoax is because many are taking the time to examine the overall picture."
## [3723] "Something is rotten in the state of Denmark New Zealand. A judge has disregarded as inadmissible expert evidence from a statistician who showed that the adjustment method NIWA claimed they used only give a 0.3C/Century rise in temperature and ruled that NIWA (now a limited company) can adjust the temperature record as they see fit without having to demonstrate the use of a method based on any accepted science. heres the graph:"
## [3724] "When I re-examined the De Bilt data, I was intrigued both by the size of the adjustment for a seemingly innocuous move of a couple hundred meters from a pagoda hut to a Stevenson hut and by the large discrepancy between the adjustments applied in 3 standard versions of the data. If the KNMi adjustment is right, then errors in the GISS and GHCN adjustments are up to 0.5 deg C in the 20th century and up to 1 deg C in the 19th century extremely large errors in a well-studied site."
## [3725] "Nuccitelli ends by saying, Overall, Spencer made very few factually correct statements in this interview. On any other subject but this, where true-believers such as Nuccitelli now routinely get away with outrageous falsehoods that smear the reputations of any scientists bold enough to raise even the mildest questions about the New Religion, that remark would have led to a libel suit."
## [3726] "As illustrated and discussed, while global surface temperatures rose slightly in 2014, the minor uptick did little to overcome the growing difference between observed global surface temperature and the projections of global surface warming by the climate models used by the IPCC."
## [3727] "Computer model simulations of complex, chaotic systems often are massive failures producing worthless prediction output.....all the climate models used by the IPCC and the major climate research agencies are no different - with that said, there are times when a simpler and more elegant model approach can produce superior results despite the chaos at hand, and for a fraction of the cost"
## [3728] "The problem with the IPCC process, however, is that the scientists and experts participating in each iteration have become increasingly biased toward climate alarmism. It is getting harder to separate the ideologically motivated alarmists from the honestly worried scientists. Past assessment reports, especially the 2nd AR in 1995, were badly politicized by U.N. bureaucrats, misrepresenting what the report actually contained. Skeptics qualified to participate have found the IPCC process too frustrating and have dropped out; for example, Richard Lindzen, a participant and chapter author in the 3rd AR, is not participating in this round. More and more, the IPCC is becoming an echo chamber for just one point of view, and is closing itself to outside criticism. Its members, in the fashion of environmental activists, have taken to demonizing their reasonable critics."
## [3729] "They claim the model we used was ???bad?? (even though it is commonly used in many previous studies, and recommended to us by one of the leading climate modelers in the world), and that is was ???tuned?? to match the data. The last claim is absolutely hilarious, since the more complex climate models they use are constantly being re-tuned by small armies of scientists in efforts to get them to better agree with the observed behavior of the climate system."
## [3730] "Note the precision in the probabilities. Very impressive. However, Dr Jones unfortunately appears to suffer from xenophobia. Heres a communication from Prof Phil Jones (for it is he) gleefully relating in a Climategate email about our Dr David Jones"
## [3731] "IPCC Reports say little , but acknowledge lack of data and understanding. There are very limited direct measurements of actual evapotranspiration over global land areas. Over oceans, estimates of evaporation depend on bulk flux estimates that contain large errors. The problem is this is the major mechanism of transferal of heat energy in the global system."
## [3732] "Solution: As noted here , \"an ad hoc assumption, not supported by any factual evidence, solved the problem: The average age of air was arbitrarily decreed to be exactly 83 years younger than the ice in which it was trapped (Jaworowski 1994 & 1992).\" I have added the red arrow to illustrate the arbitrary data shift of 83 years to match up ice core data with modern measurements of CO2 at Mauna Loa, an active volcano with elevated levels of CO2."
## [3733] "Indian monsoon rainfall has dropped since the 50s, but climate change should increase it. Whats going on?"
## [3734] "Some of the speakers are measurably better now than they were years ago, because they continue to grow and hone their rhetorical skills. That is probably one reason we cant get the warmers to debate."
## [3735] "In the current economic climate, knocking the lifestyles of the rich and famous is likely to strike a chord. And given the brouhaha that greeted revelations about Al Gore's carbon footprint, the makers of \"James Cameron ? Hypocrite\", who in 2009 produced a contentious documentary disputing climate change called Not Evil Just Wrong, may be tapping a rich rhetorical vein."
## [3736] "2. These global multi-decadal predictions are unable to skillfully simulate major atmospheric circulation features such the Pacific Decadal Oscillation , the North Atlantic Oscillation , El Nio and La Nia, and the South Asian monsoon ."
## [3737] "When I wrote Red Hot Lies ,I backed up the claim with specifics and evidence. Sadly if typically, a new talking point has emerged among the cap-n-trade cheerleading Left which as I showed at two town hall meetings with Rep. Michele Bachmann last Thursday excludes the non-financially financially vested Left, to their credit."
## [3738] "Even someone with the IQ of a vegetable would realize that if you want to know the rate at which temperature changes in the sub box, you want these thermometers distributed evenly; failing that, if all 5 ???fast trend?? thermometer were in one tight region, and the 5 slow warming spread out, you want to weight the various thermometers to avoid over sampling the ???fast trend.?? Climate scientists actually try to do that by using area weighting and gridding. But for now, we??ll just focus on the sub-box and what happens to it??s computed temperature."
## [3739] "Things got nasty. Someone came up with the brilliant but insidious idea of using the term ???denier?? to describe a person who remained agnostic or sceptical about the exact human contribution to the 0.7 degree global warming of the past 100 years. This malicious rhetoric came to be adopted by climate activists, media reporters and politicians up to head-of-state level. Many distinguished scientists such as Paul Reiter of the Pasteur Institute in Paris, Professor Richard Lindzen of MIT, and Bill Kininmonth, former head of our National Climate Centre, were casually defamed in this way. The same label was applied to world-renowned theoretical physicist Freeman Dyson and Australia??s distinguished Professor Bob Carter."
## [3740] "Without embarrassment, Vice President Al Gore went to the climate change meeting in Kyoto, Japan, last winter and said that \"we have reached a fundamentally new stage in the development of human civilization.\" This new stage is a crisis stage, and its \"spiritual roots\" are \"pridefulness and a failure to understand and respect our connections to God's earth and to each other.\" Gore was talking about the emission of greenhouse gas. Worrying about it is the latest religion. But as Paul Gigot of the Wall Street Journal said, the scary part is that Gore really believes this stuff. This is a religion most decidedly not separated from the state, and therein lies both the danger and the opportunity. Fanatics are dangerous because nothing deters them. At the same time, Gore is so much the true believer that his fanaticism could put his political future at risk."
## [3741] "First we can remember Tiljander which was simply flipped to improve the high number of correlated series, from memory, this counts for 3? of 484 series but it is worse than that. Luterbacher, which included 71 series of ACTUAL physical temperature data, also skewed the results so subtract another 71 bs proxies from 484 as the portion of the proxy Mann checked for correlation to temperature was actual temperature."
## [3742] "The climate models upon which most of the dire predictions of global warming rest, also contain erroneous assumptions and ignore many of the natural variables that govern our climate. They were artificially tuned to match the warm trend from 1978-1998, using water vapor to amplify the perceived warming by CO2. This was a false strategy, because the assumed positive feedback was offset by clouds and precipitation. Prof. Richard Lindzen, MIT and Roy Spencer, Ph.D. showed that the feedback should be close to zero or even negative. The models cant possibly make accurate predictions, unless solar wind variations and ocean oscillations can be accurately predicted and included. The same is true of volcanic eruptions, aerosol concentrations, and other unknowns. Cloud variations of just 1-2% could account for all the temperature changes in the 20 th century."
## [3743] "4. IPCCs 5 th assessment report (AR5) shows lower temperature predictions than the previous report (AR4) and has even increased the range of uncertainty for climate sensitivity (see item 7 below) yet it has increased its claimed level of certainty of future higher temperature-rise predictions over that claimed for previous reports in direct contradiction of its own results."
## [3744] "Many peer-reviewed papers (e.g. Douglass et al., 2004, 2008, 2009; Schwartz, 2007; Monckton, 2008; Lindzen & Choi, 2009) show that the IPCC has exaggerated the warming effect of greenhouse gases up to 7-fold. Without that exaggeration, there is no climate crisis."
## [3745] "Answering the how-much-warming question is difficult. Models overemphasize radiative transports, undervalue non-radiative transports such as evaporation and tropical afternoon convection, and largely neglect the powerfully homoeostatic effect of the great heat-sinks ocean and space that bound the atmosphere."
## [3746] "Hansensays that each doublingof CO2 causes a 3C temperature increase. Venus has 97% (0.97 mole fraction) CO2. In order to get to 97% on Earth, wewould require less than 13 doublings. That would raise temperatures by about 35degrees, using Hansensown exaggerated theory. Nowhere near 600 degrees."
## [3747] "The APS notes that the models seem able to reproduce the Arctic declining ice trend, but not the Antarctic rising ice trend. Moreover, the APS has spotted that the IPCC had done its ice graphs using only 17 out of its 40 models, these 17 happening to produce reasonable fits with the data. The APS says,"
## [3748] "The temporal extent of modern observations is too short to properly measure natural ENSO variations: averaging together at least 200 years is required to obtain robust ENSO statistics in a stable climate . Using paleoclimateproxies to extend the observational record is another option, but is complicated by the uncertainties involved in translating between model and proxy signals. Coral oxygen isotopes, the most commonly used ENSOproxy, are shown to be governed by nonlinear dynamics: a more accurate forward model or coral 18Ois needed. Even using such a model, at least 4-5 contemporaneous records will be required for accurate ENSO amplitude estimation."
## [3749] "Multiple large corporations are now working with Obama and Democrats to pass the infamous 'cap & trade' legislation, which will result in the the consumer and small businesses absorbing the trillions of dollars of direct/indirect costs it will generate. These big corporations are working behind the scenes for their own benefit, without regard to their customers or suppliers. Any consumer or small company that does not want more of their hard-earned dollars going to \"skyrocketing\" energy costs, and gigantic CO2 taxes, passed down from the large corporations, should avoid the services and products from these corporations, as much as possible. Below the fold is a list of corporations to avoid when at all possible:"
## [3750] "In fact, in recent years, important work has been done comparing the predictions that models have made about warming that should have already occurred with actual observations. The NRC report looked at the evidence that was available in 2001 and concluded that, in fact, the models had overestimated warming."
## [3751] "So alarmists began talking about climate change, blaming extreme weather events on human emissions and manipulating temperature data . They say terrible things are happening at unprecedented levels, when they are not."
## [3752] "Global warming and climate change are the biggest scam of all. This continues despite disclosures about the falsity of the science, corruption of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the manipulations of the people at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU). Now we have another fiasco presented as an attempt to show the official science has legitimacy."
## [3753] "The scientific work on which the last IPCC report rests is now more than three years old, and in the intervening period several significant research reports have appeared that cast serious doubt on its conclusions."
## [3754] "After conducting their several analyses, Lauer and Hamilton concluded that \"the simulated cloud climate feedbacks activated in global warming projections differ enormously among state-of-the-art models,\" informing us that \"this large degree of disagreement has been a constant feature documented for successive generations of GCMs from the time of the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment through the CMIP3 generation models used in the fourth IPCC assessment.\" And they add that \"even the model-simulated cloud climatologies for present-day conditions are known to depart significantly from observations and, once again, the variation among models is quite remarkable (e.g., Weare, 2004; Zhang et al ., 2005; Waliser et al ., 2007, 2009; Lauer et al ., 2010; Chen et al ., 2011).\""
## [3755] "Ben Santer, the scientist who rewrote the main conclusions of the UN's 1995 Climate Assessment Report so as to change them from a statement that humanity was having no measurable effect on global temperature to a statement that humanity was affecting temperature."
## [3756] "We can allrecall the climate hockey teams similar reaction. Andrew Montford wrote a whole book on it. First they tried to hide the numbers, claiming they were lost. Then they said the numbers were out there and anyone could see them. When the numbers were exposed, they had other experts bogusly confirm that they were right. And when these were shown to be flawed, they made up new phonycurves. In the end, it was all about hiding an ugly truth. Today, except for the fabricators themselves, nobody believes the climate hockey stick curves anymore."
## [3757] "I'm therefore slightly bemused that Hay et al think that there is still an enigma that needs to be solved, unless they are referring to the 20th century only. But more interestingly, if the astronomical data is saying that the change in sea level due to mass changes is less than 5cm/century, how can this be consistent with the GRACE satellite data saying it is 20cm/century or so? What does the astronomical data say now and is it consistent with GRACE? Does anyone know?"
## [3758] "Or so reason the people who lately claimed that the U.S. heat over the past 13 months was only a one in 1.6 million event. After making this dubious calculation, it was argued that because the result was so incredibly tiny, something-that-could-only-be-global-warming caused the temperature to take the values it did."
## [3759] "How has the MWP almost disappeared again, just in time to perhaps go missing in IPCC AR5? Science supplemental information says the average resolution of the 73 paleoclimate series is 160 years, and the median is 120. The proxy selection was deliberately weighted toward low frequency resolution, since the entire Holocene was being assessed. Figure S18c (below) shows there is no statistically valid resolution to the combined proxy set for anything less than 300-year periods. The paper itself said, our temperature stack does not fully resolve variability at periods shorter than 2000 years"
## [3760] "When we talk about the evolution of the Earth's temperature, we are talking about the increase or decrease. The simple question \"is the temperature rising?\" is too ill-defined because there isn't just one temperature (consider many places on the globe and above the globe) and there isn't just one time scale (and one particular position in time) in which the question may be addressed. All these details have to be added to the question."
## [3761] "The IPCC freely admits not knowing which scenario is most likely. But we should bear in mind theres NO EVIDENCE that these amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere will cause any harmful effects. Theyre guessing. Theres no knowing whether 1200 ppm of CO2 (three times what is there now) will produce 0.52 to 0.98 m of sea-level rise, or whether 380 ppm will produce only 0.26 to 0.55 m."
## [3762] "8.\tWhen the signal (results) is in the range of the noise (background natural variability) the reliability of the research is compromised by the signal to noise confusion. In studies with small effects like the US EPA air pollution premature death studies, confirmation bias (also called tunnel vision) energized by intellectual passion and commitment to a political agenda produce studies that do not justify the policies proposed and pursued or the regulatory regimes imposed. P 84."
## [3763] "1) I agree with the Burger and Cubasch results and conclusions in general. Indeed, all NH reconstructions published to date gives a qualitative information only: For example, MWP and the Current Warming are warmer than LIA. But it is impossible to conclude with a certainty: either CW or MWP is warmer. It is even more so as concern centennial and decadal variations because these latter variations usually are of regional character."
## [3764] "To the extent that the recent literature produces a more accurate estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity than does the climate model average, it means that the projections of future climate change given by both the IPCC and NCA are, by default, some 40% too large (too rapid) and the associated (and described) impacts are gross overestimates."
## [3765] "Advocates of immediate precautionary actions often state there is nearly unanimous agreement among scientists that the globe is warming at an unacceptably rapid rate and that society is to blame. But the claim of a scientific consensus on the causes of global warming is not supportable. Consider these two points."
## [3766] "The Pacific Ocean covers almost 33% of the surface of the globe. It covers more of the Earth than the continental land masses combined. And climate models overestimate the warming there by 2.4 times. Yet somehow were supposed to believe all of the IPCCs predictions of gloom and doom when, after more than 2 decades of modeling efforts, the best the modeling agencies around the globe can do is have their models more than double the warming rate of the surface of the largest ocean on this water-covered planet."
## [3767] "At the end of the table value is thus also the cooling effect with clouds and these certainly belong to the difficulties in climate science due to the interaction of several factors.The evaporation from a liquid surface falls within the field of fundamental physics and chemistry, and it can be determined using controlled experiments.It is therefore particularly noteworthy if they choose the wrong numerical value for such a fundamental process!"
## [3768] "It was, at the least, a logical stretch to try to redefine the physical greenhouse effect or to create an alternative version of it, but the attempt was certainly an obvious one to take given the position climate science had put itself in with this previous postulate of solar heating being too cold. The logical propagation goes back from the radiative greenhouse effect being incorrect, to the previous postulate that solar heating is so feeble. By incorrectly modelling the solar heating as so cold, there was no possible way, by simple logical propagation, that any math, science, or physics based on that postulate would subsequently be correct or represent reality."
## [3769] "Many of us are old enough to remember the scare stories from the 1970s, a time when climate scientists were warning that Earth was returning to an ice age."
## [3770] "How can we believe in global warming when the temperature records providing the evidence for that warming cannot be trusted?"
## [3771] "Having established some reason to doubt the accuracy of the CRU data, we turn now to the now you see it, now you dont aspect. Here is my first attempt to gather data from CRU. It overlaps with Warwicks requests. This is not in the Climategate emails, it is personal."
## [3772] "There is quite a bit of confusion about the nature of hockey stick temperature constructions. Currently, many non-paleo climate scientists seem to want to avoid the discussion altogether. However, these studies are still freely passed through review, which seems to me a very biased point of view. I reported here , on an open review of a paper written by Ammann on a different method for scaling proxies to correct for variance loss in proxies. As I read it, it looks like a method which will get closer to a proper solution but not fix the problems. It seems that some climate scientists have fully recognized the problem of Mannian style reconstructions and are interested in improving the results."
## [3773] "I think the characterisation of the discussion of the issue in the Third Assessment Report as \"open\" is not a reasonable one. Here is what the report had to say on the issue"
## [3774] "Every time a serious problem occurred for IPCC official climate science or those promoting it, they hired professional spin doctors. Why do official climate scientists need spin doctors? Answer, because they practice politics not science. Climategate, like its namesake Watergate, became exposed by the cover up, in this case disgraceful, atypical behavior disclosed in the emails."
## [3775] "I worked with Trenberths NCAR as a hardware/software contractor for many years, looking at ways tospeed up their weather and climate models. During autumn 2009, I had a contract with them to look into accelerating their radiative transfer model RRTM, which isused in both the weather and climate models. After two weeks of research, the project was put on hold because ( Trenberth) had lost confidence in their radiative transfer model"
## [3776] "A free preview in pdf format is here . The preview includes the Table of Contents, the Introduction, the first half of section 1 (which was provided complete in the post here ), a discussion of the cover, and the Closing. Take a run through the Table of Contents. It is a very-detailed and well-illustrated bookusing data from the real world, not models of a virtual world. Who Turned on the Heat? is only available in pdf formatand will only be available in that format. Click here to purchase a copy."
## [3777] "This document , outlining how DECC should respond to Lord Turnbull's GWPF report on climate policy is fascinating. The scientific briefings that ministers get from DECC officials are indistinguishable from Greenpeace press releases."
## [3778] "News for the alarmists is worse from their favorite model, that from the UK's Hadley Centre, which proved no more capable of predicting past climate than a table of random numbers when used for the flawed National Assessment on Climate Change. Wu et al. report in Geophysical Research Letters that their examination of thermohaline circulation (THC) was expected to show a weakening of the stream. \"However,\" as they write, they \"do not find a decreasing trend of the North Atlantic THC.\" Instead, \"Accompanying the freshening trend, the THC unexpectedly shows an upward trend, rather than a downward trend.\" In other words, according to the Hadley Centre model, global warming may well strengthen the Gulf Stream."
## [3779] "Misuse of climate models as false prophets of doom is costly in lives as well as treasure."
## [3780] "Postmodern journalism maintains that the science of climate is like a toothpaste commercial where a consensus of dentists determines what toothpaste you should use. If you support their commercial's thesis, you are scientific; if you don't, then you are an enemy of the state, a Republican, or even a Trump supporter. That's the climate science of postmodern journalism: 100% pure fake news, top to bottom."
## [3781] "This spate of problems, as they continue, can (8) \"be easily found in fully coupled GCMs as the atmospheric, oceanic and coupling processes could all introduce errors and even amplify the errors from each other,\" citing the studies of Delecluse et al . (1998), Grenier et al . (2000), Cai et al . (2011) and Gupta et al . (2013). And they thus remind us that (9) \"current state-of-the-art CGCMs do not resolve oceanic meso-scale dynamics."
## [3782] "The situation is little better in the rest of the world. There are no records for the entire Arctic Basin. The problem was exacerbated when they reduced the number of stations assuming satellites would provide a replacement. The problem is you cannot determine if precipitation occurred or if it was rain or snow."
## [3783] "However, for the 15-year trend interval corresponding to the latest observation period 1998-2012, only 2% of the 62 CMIP5 and less than 1% of the 189 CMIP3 trend computations are as low as or lower than the observed trend."
## [3784] "Phil has changed the data at a rate of 0.8 degrees per century, equal to the rate they claim the earth has warmed."
## [3785] "Measuring the global temperature is only reliably done by satellites, which circle the world 24/7 measuring the temperature over large swathes of land and ocean. But satellite temperature records only go back to 1979. Before that, the further back you go the more unreliable the temperature record gets. We have decent land thermometer records back to 1880, and some thermometer records back to the middle of the 1700s. Prior to that we rely on temperature proxies, such as ice cores, tree rings, ocean sediments, or snow lines."
## [3786] "What methods do they use to achieve their unusual conclusion? Using observational data collected over the last 50 years and complex climate models, the team has established that low-level stratiform clouds appear to dissipate as the ocean warms, indicating that changes in these clouds may enhance the warming of the planet. Well, they use some data but also \"complex models\". It's clearly a basic logical error to try to show that the models represent a feature of the climate incorrectly, while using the same models to derive this conclusion. ;-)"
## [3787] "This brings us to another fact, which is that the core of the Earth is hot. How do we know this? Very simply by volcanic eruptions throwing up rivers of red-hot lava; by geysers throwing up boiling water and by the above-mentioned hydrothermal vents. Nobody that I know of has yet claimed that man has caused the internal heat of the Earth. And yet we still have a substantial body of people who hold a sort of religious belief that Man is causing Global Warming and thereby causing the Climate of the Earth to change."
## [3788] "A quote from an IPCC lead author: There are far too many politically correct appointments, so that developing country scientists are appointed who have insufficient competence to do anything useful."
## [3789] "Because ENSO is the dominant mode of climate variability at interannual time scales, the lack of consistency in the model predictions of the response of ENSO to global warming currently limits our confidence in using these predictions to address adaptive societal concerns, such as regional impacts or extremes."
## [3790] "One of the favorite lies is the charge that fossil fuel companies are funding the climate change skeptics, even with zilch empirical evidence to back it up. The Heartland Institute decided to call out a U.S. Congressman (a Democrat) on the blatant mis-truths and rumors that he his staff published."
## [3791] "Figure 2. Predictions from the IPCCs First Assessment Report compared with outturn since 1990 (RSS & UAH). The world has been warming at exactly half the predicted rate, and the trend falls wholly outwith the prediction interval (orange region)."
## [3792] "Since failures in climate science claims are on the rise, can we start naming climate prediction failures after scientists and activists? I can think of a few: The Hansen Hiatus , for example."
## [3793] "Note: 1 Method 3, that is taking the average of the 5 individual trends results in reject/reject for the IPCC 2C/century trend. However, as I noted, that is meaningless, as the uncertainty intervals only include the variation due to measurement uncertainty and fail to properly include weather."
## [3794] "Note that not only was 1998 demoted, but also many other years since 1975 ??? the start of Tamino??s ???modern warming period.?? By demoting 1998, they are now able to show a continuous warming trend from 1975 to the present ??? which RSS, UAH and Had Crut do not show."
## [3795] "The committee went to great lengths to defuse the money line from the Climategate e-mails i.e., \"Mike's Nature trick to hide the decline.\" While explaining how \"trick\" could merely refer to a \"clever device,\" the committee failed to even mention \"hide the decline,\" a phrase referring to Mann's still-unexplained deletion of temperature data contradicting the climate alarmism hypothesis."
## [3796] "The Wall Street Journal today published a selection of the leaked emails and an editorial concluding that the emails \"give every appearance of testifying to concerted and coordinated efforts by leading climatologists to fit the data to their conclusions while attempting to silence and discredit their critics.\""
## [3797] "Two years ago, climate experts told us that the mild winter in the US was proof of global warming. Now they tell us that the US and Canada aretoo small to be important."
## [3798] "One question still remains open: Why didnt Rahmstorfs science-colleagues even lift a finger when the Foster & Rahmstorf 2011 paper appeared? Did it really have to take 2 years to discover that the simplistic methodical approach was incomplete? Other than scientific reasons, could other reasons be involved here?"
## [3799] "I??ve pointed out before that Ammann and Wahl??s submission to GRL was rejected and was only taken out of the garbage can after they got the editor replaced. (Compare the silence on this to the hysteria about Soon and Baliunas at Climate Research.) It is disquieting in the extreme that a corporation, like the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, should issue a press release announcing the submission of an article and then not announce the rejection. That would be a breach of securities laws requiring ongoing full disclosure for Canadian mining promotions, but seemingly not in climate research. It??s amazing the number of references that were immediately made to the UCAR press release to the U.S. Congress. I formally complained to Richard Anthes, President of UCAR about their handling of the Ammann press release and got a very unsatisfactory reply, but that??s another story."
## [3800] "TodayisInternational Polar Bear Day 2015and environmentalists will be marking the occasion with petitions, calls to action and alarmist claims about the threat to the very existence of these iconic animals."
## [3801] "All these points confronted and contradicted the political agenda of blaming human CO2 for global warming and latterly climate change. Refutation began in the 1995 Second Assessment Report (SAR) and hit full stride with the 2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR) and its central feature, the Hockey Stick. Accurate determination of the onset and termination dates for the MWP and LIA, the relative homogeneity, was essential to identifying the underlying mechanisms. The Hockey Stick solved the problem by eliminating the events completely and tacking on a modern blade with an error factor that made the numbers meaningless. Welcome to IPCC climate science."
## [3802] "Hansens hottest year ever is nonsense. He shows a sharp rise in temperatures after July just as the coldest La Nina on record set in. This is horrifically bad science."
## [3803] "Activists and even some scientists will tell you that the science behind the expected major warming of the globe is rock solid. In fact, the projections of temperature increases in coming decades are based on entirely unproven forecasting systems which depend on guesses about crucial aspects of the atmosphere behaviour and the all-important oceans. In addition, these forecasts use carbon dioxide emission scenarios that have been generated by economic calculations rather than from science, and parts of which are already hopelessly wrong less than a decade after they were made."
## [3804] "Hansens 2001 paper exposedhow NOAA and NASA massively corrupt the US temperature record. The image below shows the various steps of data tampering.."
## [3805] "According to Mio the fatal assumption made by the IPCC is that the atmospheric concentration of the 13C isotope (distinctive in prehistoric plants) are fixed. They also assume C3-type plants no longer exist so would need to be factored into the equations. Indeed, as Miso points out such plants, make up 95% of the mass of all current plant life."
## [3806] "This is an interesting graph that anyone interested in climate change should know. Most scientists dont believe that solar variance causes all of the change we see, yet most also will tell you that this is some of it. In reality nobody really knows."
## [3807] "As usual, he has cooled the past and warmed the present. Hansen has created a 0.15C additional warming between 1910 and 2012, which didnt exist in the February 20, 2012 version of the same file."
## [3808] "GISSuses an insidious trick to hide their data tampering. They cool pre-1963 years, and warm post-1963 years. This makes their data tampering look much less severe than it actually is. A better visualization is to normalize the graphs to the most recent common data, and show the total magnitude of the tampering. The animation below shows that."
## [3809] "How much easier it would have been for climate scientists if reality did support their assertions and predictions. Instead the scientists engage in contortions worthy of a Cirque du Soleil performance in order to cling to their preordained conclusions about the world?s climate. A honest scientist would question their original hypotheses and predictions, admitting that the planet is not warming and that there is still much we don?t understand about climate."
## [3810] "New paper finds climate models fail to accurately predict clouds over the ocean critical for climate projections"
## [3811] "Following a press release from the World Meteorological Society , a regular commentator at this blog Sid Reynolds questioned whether the WMO has infra-red rose coloured glasses and can only see when warm records are broken, having previously listed an impressive slew of recent record breaking cold events."
## [3812] "Read here . Earth's climate and environment has suffered from a wide range of extremes over billions of years. Yet climate models extrapolate their predictions from conditions experienced during mid-1970's to late 1990's - definitely, an incredibly microscopic view of actual Earth climate history."
## [3813] "There was global warming on the order of about 1F during the twentieth century. There is disagreement as to its cause."
## [3814] "The public's trust in the supposed scientific consensus took a blow when a vast body of e-mails from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia came to light in what has been dubbed \"Climategate.\" Climate scientists derided their critics, blocked access to peer-reviewed literature, withheld data from examination, planned to \"hide the decline\" in past temperatures and generally revealed themselves to be shaping their science to their politics rather than the other way around. Anyone who tells you climate science is settled is selling something. The climate is a vastly complicated system. The science that studies it is prone to error and was politicized before it could mature."
## [3815] "For this spring the Australian BOM predicted it would be dry and warm, instead we got very wet and quite cold. The models are so bad on a regional basis, its uncannily like they are almost useful if they call things dry, expect wet."
## [3816] "UN IPCC 2001: \"Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms' Also, The UN IPCC Draft in 1995: \"Shrinking snow cover in winter' Analysis: \"In 2010-2011, heavy snow was due to global warming. Then in 2012 the lack of snow in the Eastern US was due to global warming, and now in 2013 heavy snow is again due to global warming'"
## [3817] "Chinese weather stations were seriously flawed, or could not be located."
## [3818] "That Real Climate (RC) should feel special solicitude for the Hockey Stick is no accident, comrade. Two of the five principals at RC -- Michael Mann and Raymond Bradley -- were among the three researchers (Mann, Bradley, and Malcolm Hughes) who authored the Hockey Stick."
## [3819] "\"An Inconvenient Truth purports to be a non-partisan, non-ideological exposition of climate science and moral common sense. In reality, it is a colorfully illustrated lawyer's brief for global warming alarmism and energy rationing,\" said CEI Senior Fellow Marlo Lewis. \"It is an accusation hurled at modern industrial civilization.\""
## [3820] "Like the pagans of old thought they could appease the angry gods or win their favor through sacrificing the things most dear to them ? their livestock, and if that didn?t work, human beings, even their own children ? so it appears that Global Warmingism demands that we sacrifice. And it?s not really sacrifice because it?s moral or sensible or good for us, but sacrifice to appease the offended ecosphere."
## [3821] "And of course, government climate policies are all based on such unvalidated climate modelswhich have already been proven wrong. Yet the latest UN-IPCC report of Sept 2013 claims to be 95% certain about DAGW! Aware of the actual temperature data, how can they claim this and keep a straight face?"
## [3822] "Even after these tweaks, the backcasts were still coming out too high. So, to make the forecasts work, they asked themselves, what would global temperatures have to have done without CO2 to make our models work? The answer is that if the world naturally were to have cooled in the latter half of the 20th century, then that cooling could offset over-prediction of temperatures in the models and produce the historic result. So that is what they did. Instead of starting with natural forcings we understand, and then trying to explain the rest (one, but only one, bit of which would be CO2), modelers start with the assumption that CO2 is driving temperatures at high sensitivities, and natural forcings are whatever they need to be to make the backcasts match history."
## [3823] "Reviews are pouring in at amazon.com : 38 out of 46 reviewers give it 5 stars. Peter Gleick gives it 1 star, stating This book is a stunning compilation of lies, misrepresentations, and falsehoods about the fundamental science of climate change. It is difficult to believe that Gleick has read the book from the statements in his reviews; the book is not about the science of climate change. Rather, it is about the IPCC as an institution: the use of graduate students, WWF and Greenpeace sympathizers as IPCC authors; the use of gray environmentalist literature in IPCC (especially WG2); lack of conflict of interest oversight; the review process and the process producing the executive summaries; etc."
## [3824] "YouTube - Global Cooling: Coming Ice Age This video gives background about the 70s ice age scare with an update about some the principal figures."
## [3825] "During his long and infamous career, Holdren has warned that the end is nigh on account of ???ecocide,?? global warming due to direct heating from power plant, global cooling due to particulate aerosol emissions, nuclear winter, population growth, and now, global warming due to greenhouse gases. Needless to say, Holdren has been proven wrong time and time again."
## [3826] "On adjustments: For example, simply shifting from liquid-in-glass thermometers to electronic maximum-minimum temperature systems led to an average drop in maximum temperatures of about 0.4C and to an average rise in minimum temperatures of 0.3C. In addition, observers switched their time of observation afternoon to morning. Both of these changes would tend to artificially cool the U.S. temperature record."
## [3827] "Respected unpaid climate analyst, Malcolm Roberts, of Brisbane, Australia compiled the 'CSIROh! Report' on the invitation of ABC Radios Steve Austin. Across 29 pages Roberts details a litany of evidence proving that the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia's national science agency, corruptly and unlawfully misrepresented science, climate and Nature."
## [3828] "Isnt it relevant to the debate about global warmingwhat to do about global warmingthat the alarmist side engages in this systematic campaign consisting of intimidation and threats, wheels falling off cars, abuses being inflicted on schoolchildren, demands of censorship, revising history, and telling flat-out lies?"
## [3829] "Taking climate modeling back to basics to address the interplay between atmospheric water and the atmospheric circulation, and the complex couplings between the atmosphere and ocean, require going back to basics and looking at a hierarchy of models and a range of model structural forms. Better understanding and simulation of the climate requires that improve our understanding and treatment of these processes in climate models. It is pointless to worry about aerosols, carbon cycle etc in the context of climate models until these more fundamental issues are addressed."
## [3830] "Doh! NASA's James Hansen in 2008: Warm UK winters \"are a clear sign that the climate is changing'"
## [3831] "This is the exact opposite of the 100% fraudulent NCDC climate extremes index (CEI) which reports that the region of the country with unusually hot days has increased to record levels."
## [3832] "On March 13, 2013 someone with the pseudonym Mr. FOIA released the remaining 220,000 emails leaked from the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) to a select few. Since then we have heard nothing. Mr. FOIA suggested there was more useful information with examples, such as origin of the term deniers applied to those who questioned Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) science. Why hasnt more information appeared? Has threat of legal action or other intimidation silenced further release and analysis of these emails?"
## [3833] "In contrast, here??s a graphic from Richard Muller??s 2011 lecture. Unlike Allen, Muller understood Hide the Decline, which is shown here in one of its manifestations. (This is the WMO graphic; the more important Hide the Decline was in the IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment reports.) Hide the Decline is not 0.02 deg C in the 1870s; it was Briffa, Mann and Jones deleting the inconvenient portion of the Briffa reconstruction after 1960. And it wasn??t a microscopic difference. This difference is large enough that it might well have ???diluted the message?? that Houghton and others wanted to convey."
## [3834] "Climate experts often argue that we need to purchase the insurance policy of action on greenhouse gases. They say that energy taxes are like buying fire and theft insurance for your house. But this analogy, like much of their alarmism, is false. If anything, climate science acts as a fire alarm (to alert us to any potential climatic dangers), but it's the capitalist system that is the real insurance policy. The richer we are the better we can adapt to dangers (man-made and natural). Perhaps climate policies (e.g. energy taxes) tell us how much a fire extinguisher would cost, and the answer is an awful lotespecially one acknowledged to be near-useless. Until the climate science fire alarm shouts much louder, buying that fire extinguisher at the expense of more flexible capitalistic insurance is folly."
## [3835] "Following this methodology, since none of the known forcing functions are able to accurately reproduce the observed temperature rise (0.6-0.7C/100 years), the modelers tune? parameters associated with the greenhouse effect (with some justification) and claim that their models can reproduce reasonably well the observed temperature rise of about 0.6-0.7C during the last 100 years in terms of the greenhouse effect. An important point here is that the answer (0.6-0.7C/100 years) is given at the start. In the past, much of the criticism of climate modeling has focused on this tuning? procedure."
## [3836] "The issue of loyalty to colleagues came starkly to the forefront in response the release of the Climategate emails. I was criticized for my early essays by colleagues because talking about even the broad issues of uncertainty, transparency, losing trust etc was viewed as insensitive to the feelings of the individual scientists involved (and not helping the cause). Jerry North stated publicly that he would not read the emails out of respect for the scientistists involved."
## [3837] "The irony is that the Supreme Court, which jealously guards against any hint of a religious symbol on public property lest a religion be established, has gone a long way toward making the Earth Cult the official religion of the United States."
## [3838] "The AGGI is a pseudoscientific metric that cant possibly measure what it purports to measure since no one (including NOAA) understands the effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, much less that they are harmful."
## [3839] "What this means: The IPCC knows the pause is real, but has no idea what is causing it. It could be natural climate variability, the sun, volcanoes and crucially, that the computers have been allowed to give too much weight to the effect carbon dioxide emissions (greenhouse gases) have on temperature change."
## [3840] "NOAA generated their fake map through an amazing hockey stick of adjustments of 3.5 degrees in Michigan. By massively cooling the past and warming present, they tried to fool Great Lakes ice into believing that the freezing point of water has changed."
## [3841] "I must admit, it astounds me how some scientists can be so sure of theories which involve events in the distant past that we cannot measure directly. Yet we measure the entire Earth every day with a variety of satellite instruments, and we are still trying to figure out from that abundance of data how today??s climate system works!"
## [3842] "At the outset, lets be quite clear: There is no consensus about dangerous anthropogenic global warming (DAGW)and there never was. There is not even a consensus on whether human activities, such as burning fossil fuels to produce useful energy, affect global climate significantly. So whats all this fuss about?"
## [3843] "?To me, the most significant thing that the Climategate emails show is that the deck is stacked against the publication of research results that are critical of the established scientific consensus, and the skids are greased for papers that run in support?. Not a good situation for the advancement of science.?"
## [3844] "But, again, who knows? The only thing that is certain, as Cohen et al. describe it, is that traditional radiative greenhouse gas theory and coupled climate models forced by increasing greenhouse gases alone cannot account for this seasonal asymmetry. And so we have yet another reason why so many scientists are so skeptical about the ability of even the most sophisticated of todays climate models to adequately portray reality."
## [3845] "Stats tampering puts NOAA in hot water"
## [3846] "\"It's a well-kept secret, but 95 percent of the climate models we are told prove the link between human CO2 emissions and catastrophic global warming have been found, after nearly two decades of temperature stasis, to be in error,\" he said, without providing evidence."
## [3847] "If the climate shifts hypothesisis correct, then the current flat trend in global surface temperatures may continue for another decade or two, with a resumption of warming at some point during mid-century. The amount of warming from greenhouse gases depends both on the amount of greenhouse gases that are emitted as well as the climate sensitivity to the greenhouse gases, both of which are associated with substantial uncertainties."
## [3848] "In other words, each proxy may have its distinct frequency response function, which could confuse the interpretation of climate variability. Finally, another concern is the lack of understanding of the air-sea relationship at the multidecadal timescale, even in the reasonably well observed region of the North Atlantic (Hkkinen 2000, Seager et al. 2000, Marshall et al. 2001, Slonosky & Yiou 2001, von Storch et al. 2001)."
## [3849] "The conclusion is inescapable: The U.S. temperature record is unreliable. The errors in the record exceed by a wide margin the purported rise in temperature of 0.7 C (about 1.2 F) during the twentieth century. Consequently, this record should not be cited as evidence of any trend in temperature that may have occurred across the U.S. during the past century. Since the U.S. record is thought to be the best in the world, it follows that the global database is likely similarly compromised and unreliable."
## [3850] "It is now six months since I reported on what even environmentalists are calling \"the biggest environmental scandal in history\". Indeed this is a scam so glaringly bizarre that even the UN and the EU have belatedly announced that they are thinking of taking steps to stop it. The essence of the scam is that a handful of Chinese and Indian firms are deliberately producing large quantities of an incredibly powerful \"greenhouse gas\" which we in the West ? including UK taxpayers ? then pay them billions of dollars to destroy."
## [3851] "It is essential to understand that every one of the \"global warming\" predictions made in the 1980s and the decades since then has been WRONG. Every one of the computer models on which those predictions were based was WRONG."
## [3852] "The GISS temperature graph is nonsense. The 1940s were just as warm as the warmest recent years"
## [3853] "Current measured long term warming rates range from 1.2-1.6 C/century. Some climatologists claim 6+C for the remainder century, based on climate models. One might think that these estimates are suspect, due to the empirically observed limitations of thecurrent GCMs."
## [3854] "It should be noted that these new papers, as well as others such as the one showing a 2,000 year general cooling trend with significant variation, do not disprove the hypothesis that human emissions of CO2 are causing global warming. But, they show that climate science, as practiced by the IPCC, is inadequate and that the models used fail to account for major natural influences, and have no predictive skill."
## [3855] "So there are two aspects to Hansen??s assertion that Scenario B was ???more plausible?? ??? the handling of CFCs in near time and exponential vs linear in deeper time. In the vituperative debate in 1998 and thereafter, no one seems to have focused on the impact of CFC doubling. Does it make sense to say that doubling CFC11 and CFC12 concentrations as a way of modeling the OTGs is ???Business as Usual??? Not doubling these concentrations may very well be ???more plausible??. Indeed, as events turned out, it seems that it was ???more plausible?? not to double CFC concentrations."
## [3856] "The climate scientists are not only just wrong, but are now criminals who are intentionally committing fraud. Large parts of the public believe them."
## [3857] "The response from the defenders of Mr. Mann and his circle has been that even if they did disparage doubters and exclude contrary points of view, theirs is still the best climate science. The proof for this is circular. It's the best, we're told, because it's the most-published and most-citedin that same peer-reviewed literature. The public has every reason to ask why they felt the need to rig the game if their science is as indisputable as they claim."
## [3858] "Temperatures could start to rise again as we continue to add CO 2 to the atmosphere or they could fall as suggested by the present weak solar activity. Many climatologists are trying to address the issues described here to give us a better understanding of the physical processes involved and the reliability of the predictions. One outstanding issue is the location of all the anthropogenic CO 2 . According to Table 6.1 in the 2013 Report, half goes into the atmosphere and a quarter into the oceans with the remaining quarter assigned to some undefined sequestering as biomass on the land."
## [3859] "Now lets compare the models to the observations in Figure 5. The models overestimate the rate of warming in maximum temperatures from about 45S to 5N and from 35N to the Arctic. The models underestimate the rate of warming slightly from 5N to 35N, but grossly underestimate the polar-amplified warming in the Arctic. Hmm. Were often told that polar amplification is consistent with climate model projections, while, in reality, the multi-model mean shows little polar amplification by comparison to the data."
## [3860] "Just before the storm began, the weather models (about 10 of them) were predicting 8-12 of snow for downtown DC. Even the most bearish model predicted 5. Same models likewise predicted 12-18 for western suburbs with the most bearish predicting 10. They shut down the government, all the schools, etc."
## [3861] "As the undeniability of the problems in climate science exposed in these emails is beginning to be grasped by the public, scientists in the field have begun to speak out. Today on a thread at Watts Up With That , a post from climate scientist who studied at Harvard was featured. Sean is very clear, pulls no punches, and is worth the time of anyone whos interested in climategate to read."
## [3862] "Curiously, in an earlier work (Mann and Jones 2003), Mann had used an Antarctic isotope series covering the past two millennia (Law Dome), but, despite the shortage of long SH proxies, this series was not used in Mann et al 2008. The reasons for its omission were not stated. As CA readers realize, the Law Dome isotope series has a rather elevated medieval period, a feature that led to an AR4 controversy seen in Climategate emails. AR4 wanted to illustrate long SH proxies, but refused to show the Law Dome series (with its warm medieval period)."
## [3863] "People send me stuff. Today it is a PowerPoint presentation from NASA JPL that touts the new GRASP ( G eodetic R eference A ntenna in Sp ace) satellite project. I??d say it is more than a bit of a bombshell because the whole purpose of this new mission is to ???fix?? other mission data that apparently never had a stable enough reference for the measurements being made . This promises to rewrite what we know about sea level rise and acceleration, ice extent and ice volume loss measured from space."
## [3864] "Our suspicions that something fishy was going on were confirmed when top secret satellite data was leaked to us from a highly confidential source . The data was generated by sophisticated sensing techniques known as taking a picture in space to form an image of the surface of the Earth. When we got it, complex algorithms called Photoshop running on a supercomputer called a Pentium P5 at Climate Resistance HQ processed the data to make the image readable by humans, and to reveal the truth to the claims that the world faces water shortages."
## [3865] "What is the bias in degrees Celsius introduced as a result of aggregating temperature data from different measurement heights, aerodynamic roughnesses, and thermodynamic stability?"
## [3866] "The patterns of warming and cooling in Iceland were not always well correlated with similar changes in NW Europe, indeed often the opposite. This automatically renders any attempt to homogenise Icelandic temperature data with stations hundreds of miles away in NW Europe utterly meaningless."
## [3867] "Segment 3 is the debunking of the many claims of impending climate catastrophes Al Gore??s movie ???An Inconvenient Truth??."
## [3868] "But the editorial goes on to state that the climate alarm is overwhelmingly persuasive and that NASA scientist James Hansen, the leading alarmist scientist in the world, is not an ideologue."
## [3869] "In summary, when reality shows that Anatarctica is not contributing to sea level rise, then just fudge the models until theres a net positive sea level rise contribution. With the right assumptions, you can showanything!In this case they simply assume that changes in the ice-flow dynamics (yes, precisely!) more than offset the ice growth from precipitation."
## [3870] "In her view, the science as reported by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has institutionalized overconfidence. The overconfidence has resulted in disagreements based on: insufficient observational evidence; disagreement about the value of different classes of evidence (e.g. models); disagreement about the appropriate logical framework for linking and assessing the evidence; assessments of areas of ambiguity and ignorance; and belief polarization as a result of politicization of the science."
## [3871] "A new paper published in Climate of the Past finds climate models are unable to reproduce the climate change of the past 6,000 years found by temperature proxies. According to the authors, \"Independently of the choice of the climate model, we observe significant mismatches between modelled and estimated SST amplitudes in the trends for the last 6,000 years,\" and climate model \"SST trends underestimate the SST trends by a factor of two to five. For , no significant relationship between model simulations and proxy reconstructions can be detected.\" The paper adds to many other peer-reviewed papers finding climate models are unable to reproduce the known climate of the past , much less the future."
## [3872] "In any event, errors and exaggerations such as that which is evidenced in the IPCCs defective graph do not inspire confidence in the reliability of the IPCCs scientific case. Given this and other mistakes that an international body of this nature ought not to have made, and given your numerous and direct conflicts of interest that have, in our opinion, been insufficiently disclosed, we are also copying this letter to the delegations of the states parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change with a request that you be stripped of office forthwith."
## [3873] "The well-heeled environmental lobbying groups have massive operating budgets compared to groups that express global warming skepticism. The Sierra Club Foundation 2004 budget was $91 million and the Natural Resources Defense Council had a $57 million budget for the same year. Compare that to the often media derided Competitive Enterprise Institutes small $3.6 million annual budget. In addition, if a climate skeptic receives any money from industry, the media immediately labels them and attempts to discredit their work. The same media completely ignore the money flow from the environmental lobby to climate alarmists like James Hansen and Michael Oppenheimer. (ie. Hansen received $250,000 from the Heinz Foundation and Oppenheimer is a paid partisan of Environmental Defense Fund)"
## [3874] "Simple models presented here which are driven with two types of assumed internal radiative forcing have also shed light on some features of observed climate variability which have not been adequately explained before. These include: the large magnitude of satellite-observed radiative variability on interannual time scales compared to climate models; the low and highly variable correlations between global, time-averaged temperature and radiative fluxes; the tendency for model-produced feedbacks to be more positive than those observed in the climate system; and even the potential role of internally generated radiative forcing as a partial explanation for the major low frequency features of the global mean temperature record since 1900."
## [3875] "Indoctrination Alert as yet another teacher outs herself as a climate alarmist, having learned all the necessary propaganda from Al Gore himself. The Warrnambool Standard is gushing about it (well it would be its part of Fairfax):"
## [3876] "The thermometers show that US temperatures are declining thenNCDC and GISS tamper with the data, and tell the public that we are heating out of control."
## [3877] "Obama clings to climate alarmism with National Climate Assessment"
## [3878] "When drafts of chapters come for AR5, we can??t review the chapter as we can??t get access to the data, or, the authors can??t refer to these papers as the data haven??t been made available for audit."
## [3879] "A year and a half ago, the Climate-gate scandals showed that \"scientists\" ? actually, government-funded global warming activists ? were skewing climate data and trying to silence climate change skeptics."
## [3880] "Quoting one journalist, a George Mason University analysis found that U.S. media outlets pretty much agree that climate change is real, its happening, and were responsible. That debate is over. As a result, critics are no longer being interviewed, the study said. In the view of mainstream media outlets, seeking or presenting both sides on the climate issue is a false balance. At least one news organization now has an explicit editorial policy discouraging reporters from quoting climate change deniers in environment or science coverage, the Washington Examiner noted."
## [3881] "On rainfall, there is almost always one model that is right because there are so many models and they all say different things."
## [3882] "The whacky world of climate alarmism is falling apart . The leading acolytes of the movement will continue to wail that its all the fault of those evil energy interests that supposedly make fellows like me question the theology of AGW theory, but in reality they have no one to blame for their increasing irrelevance but themselves."
## [3883] "But Climategate was only the tip of the iceberg. An AR4 warning that unchecked climate change will melt most of the Himalayan glaciers by 2035 was found to be lifted from an erroneous World Wildlife Federation (WWF) report and misrepresented as peer-reviewed science. IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri attempted to parry this ???mistake?? by accusing the accusers at the Indian environment ministry of ???arrogance?? and practicing ???voodoo science?? in issuing a report disputing the IPCC. But one in his own ranks, Dr Murari Lal, the coordinating lead author of the chapter making the claim, had the astoundingly bad manners to admit that he knew all along that it ???did not rest on peer-reviewed scientific research.?? Apparently , so had Pachauri, who continued to lie about it for months so as not to sully the exalted AR4 immediately prior to Copenhagen."
## [3884] "1. The science that predicts the extent of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) is not settled science. (Jan 2013)"
## [3885] "Other fraud is evident through public exposure of e-mail files retrieved from the Climate Research Unit (CRU) at Britain's University of East Anglia. Scandalous exchanges among prominent researchers who have fomented global warming hysteria confirm long-standing and broadly suspected manipulations of climate data. The communications also reveal conspiracies to falsify and withhold information, to suppress contrary findings in scholarly publications, and to exaggerate the existence and threats of man-made global warming. Many of these individuals have had major influence over summary report findings issued by the IPCC. Still other evidence comes from mouths of government officials, international climate summit organizers and leading science spokespeople recorded in candid public admissions."
## [3886] "Every movement has its nutters. Climate warriors have long ago stopped being civil. But we seem to be entering a new level of radicalisation."
## [3887] "In the 1970s and 80s, environmental policies rose to prominence as environmentalists scored many political victories. But our successes in cleaning rivers and air pollution were unfortunately followed by an environmental populism that led to an intellectual and economic downward spiral, often driven by fears of approaching ecological cataclysm. This devolution of the environmental movement is what German journalist and environment expert Edgar Gaertner has recently written about in his new book Eco-nihilism: A critique of a Political Ecology."
## [3888] "Knappenberger and Michaels quantify the mismatch between models and observations. From Cato at Liberty, AGU 2014: Quantifying the Mismatch between Climate Projections and Observations"
## [3889] "Two, the very large climate modeling overestimates of global warming are primarily a result of the assumed positive water-vapor feedback processes (about 2 o C extra global warming with a CO 2 doubling in most models). Models assume any upper tropospheric warming also brings about upper tropospheric water-vapor increase as well, because they assume atmospheric relative humidity (RH) remains quasi-constant. But measurements and theoretical considerations of deep cumulonimbus (Cb) convective clouds indicate any increase of CO 2 and its associated increase in global rainfall would lead to a reduction of upper tropospheric RH and a consequent enhancement (not curtailment) of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) to space."
## [3890] "Error budgets are also bothering AJStrata , who views the so-called homogenisation adjustments as science fiction."
## [3891] "The creator of the infamous \"hockey stick,\" Michael Mann of the University of Virginia, came out swinging when the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee held a hearing July 29 on whether the last century was the warmest in the past thousand years. Responding to the devastating refutation of his claim, Mann resorted to personal attacks and wild charges of scientific incompetence."
## [3892] "However, with respect to the uncertainty of the multi-decadal global model predictions, when run in a hindcast mode, the paper"
## [3893] "For a short background from my perspective, Dr Zorita, co-authored a paper in 2004 which pointed out the loss in variance created by methods used in Michael Manns hockey stick as demonstrated in the hockey stick posts linked above. The VonStorch and Zorita paper had a mistake in replicating Manns results in that they did the math correctly whereas Mann had it wrong so they were in the odd situation of correcting a correct paper to make it match an incorrect paper. All that aside, they demonstrate that Manns hockey stick handles are mathematically inclined to be straight."
## [3894] "$300 BILLION ! Lets just pause and think about that for a moment more than global software AND biotech sectors combined that is a phenomenal statistic. If there had been no global warming scare over the past twenty years, most of these companies wouldnt even exist!"
## [3895] "#3. The oceans are not going to be boiling from CO2 emissions as predicted by NASA's top climate expert."
## [3896] "Models often differ from theory, though. Climate models used by the IPCC are notorious for not properly simulating even the most basic of ENSO-related processes. See Bellenger et al. (2012) ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 . One of the known problems is that they underutilize sunlight (downward shortwave radiation). See Guilyardi et al (2008) Understanding El Nio in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges ."
## [3897] "DCC/CC scientists have also included fundamentally flawed literature reviews such Oreskes 2004, Anderegg et al 2010, and Cook et al 2013 as robust measures of 97-98% scientific consensus for CAGW. All three of these studies has been heavily criticized in the scientific literature for flawed methodology which distorted the results."
## [3898] "Stephen McIntyre, who debunked the Hockey Stick temperature reconstruction by Climategate-implicated Michael Mann, disputed the Committees judgment with respect to the infamous trick to hide the decline."
## [3899] "But its only if we include a strong warming effect from Mans CO2 emissions that we can reproduce the observed warming of the past 60 years. We cannot think of any other reason for the warming. That argument from the UNs climate panel, the IPCC, is the argumentum ad ignorantiam, the fallacy of arguing from ignorance. We do not know why the warming has occurred. Arbitrarily to blame Man is impermissible."
## [3900] "Whether Spencer is right or wrong, the claim CO2 is not the only cause of the warming is different than, humans are not to blame for the increase . Mann??s portrayal is a clear exaggeration of what his source actually says."
## [3901] "But a bigger gaffe is Hansens claim that Earth absorbs only 240Wm^2, averaged over the surface of the planet. In this number fudge Hansen applied a bogus averaging technique to illuminate a flat Earth by a constant frigid twilight. As such he deliberately omits to account for the fact Earth is a rotating sphere subject to the constant heating and cooling effects of night and day."
## [3902] "Floods are notoriously difficult to predict, particularly flash floods. Coarse resolution global climate models do a dreary job of simulating the local distribution of rainfall events. Apart from the actual physics of precipitation and the complex interactions between the cloud microphysics and small scale turbulent and convective dynamics, getting the regional distribution of rainfall events depends on accurate simulation of the statistics of weather events, ENSO, blocking patterns, etc. Coarse resolution climate models do not do a particularly good job in simulating the dynamics that are relevant for formation of extreme precipitation events."
## [3903] "However, the conclusion must be that drawn that warming was more widespread in the Arctic not just the Atlantic side than is currently noted in the official sea ice data bases covering 1920-1945/50 and that the official records appear to very substantially overstate the ice area extent during this period."
## [3904] "The study notes that this ridge which has resulted in decreased rain and snowfall since 2011 is almost opposite to what computer models predict would result from human-caused climate change."
## [3905] "Read here . Climate modeler scientists needing to make their \"global warming\" case - adjust temperatures until desired result is met."
## [3906] "Study claimed in 2009 that sea levels would rise by up to 82cm by the end of century but the report??s author now says true estimate is still unknown"
## [3907] "Al Gore Sells Out to Big Oil & Gas: ???Al-Jazeera received its initial funding through a decree from Emir of Qatar, & Qatar, gets its wealth from its vast oil & natural gas reserves??"
## [3908] "Scientists On Trial? Retired Lawyer?s Blogsite To Examine Earlier ?Predictions? Made By Climate ?Experts?"
## [3909] "Much of CRUs prominence exists because of IPCC activities by its employees. Much of the Climategate dossier, including some of the most controversial emails, arise out of IPCC activities by CRU employees. These include the emails arising from the September 1999 IPCC Lead Authors meeting in Arusha, Tanzania (up to and including the notorious trick email) and the Wahl-Briffa correspondence in July and August 2006, together with requests to delete this correspondence in May 2008."
## [3910] "Keith Briffa who has succeeded in persuading the conspirators that in order to achieve the desired result of pretending that today's temperatures are exceptionally wrong that they should rely upon the measurement of tree rings from a single tree in rural Russia."
## [3911] "\" homogenation practices used until today are mainly statistical, not well justified by experiments, and are rarely supported by metadata. It can be argued that they often lead to false results: natural features of hydroclimatic times series are regarded as errors and are adjusted.\""
## [3912] "As it happens, the tree-ring proxies match up with the thermometer measurements up until about 1960, when there is a \"divergence\" between the two sets of data. The tree rings indicate a global cooling after 1960, while the thermometer data indicates a sharp warming. The CRU scientists decided to simply stop using the inconveniently non-warming tree-ring data after 1960. In one email, this is discussed as a \"trick\" developed by Michael Mann, the creator of the infamous climate \"hockey stick chart,\" that would \"hide the decline\" shown by the tree-rings, and emphasize the recent spike in thermometer data, preserving the sanctity of the hockey stick."
## [3913] "In 1995 everyone agreed the world was warmer in medieval times, but CO2 was low then and that didnt fit with climate models. In 1998, suddenly Michael Mann ignored the other studies and produced a graph that scared the world tree rings show the 1990s was the hottest decade for a thousand years. Now temperatures exactly fit the rise in carbon! The IPCC used the graph all over their 2001 report. Government departments copied it. The media told everyone."
## [3914] "Readers of CA are familiar with the fact that key data sets used over and over by the Team in multiproxy studies ??? Yamal, Taymir etc. ??? are not archived and that Briffa refuses to disclose the data. These problems were brought to the attention of the NAS Panel. Indeed, I specifically confronted two presenters to the NAS PAnel, D??Arrigo and Hegerl, about the unavailability of data and asked the NAS panel to get it. The NAS panel did nothing. Instead of reporting on these issues, North cited a 1997 study saying the following:"
## [3915] "Mathematical physicist Dr. Frank J. Tipler, Prof. of Mathematical Physics, astrophysics, at Tulane University: ?Whether the ice caps melt, or expand whatever happens the AGW theorists claim it confirms their theory. A perfect example of a pseudo-science like astrology. It is obvious that anthropogenic global warming is not science at all.?"
## [3916] "In this satellite image the blue colour in the northern hemisphere represents low carbon dioxide emissions from the industrial nations of the US, UK and EU. The red colour in the southern hemisphere represents high carbon emissions from forested vegetation areas in equatorial regions. This is precisely the opposite of what an alarmist and quiescent mainstream media would have you believe."
## [3917] "The biggest tuning knob for getting models to match reality is the one labeled forcing from aerosols. This knob is especially useful because we really dont know where exactly it should be setthus different modeling groups can set it just about anywhere they would like to get their models to produce the right answer. The knob was installed in the first place because without it the models produce too much warming from greenhouse gas increases alone. So, add a knob that can be used to counteract some of that warming (taken together aerosols in the models produce a cooling), and you get the right answer without having to make any other major changes to the model!"
## [3918] "One of the basic tenets of the scientific method is that work should be reproducible by other scientists. In order for climate scientists' work to be reproduced it is necessary for their data and the computer programs which transform it into results to be freely available. There are many instances of climate scientists refusing to release data, or \"losing\" it . This has happened with prominent scientists and key scientific papers. So some of the most important scientific work of recent years - work which underpins the IPCC process and the doom-laden results which it announces to the world - is not capable of being replicated. A reputable scientific body would disassociate itself from suspect papers of this kind. The IPCC embraces them."
## [3919] "The Academy authors must have found it hard to carry off, with a straight face, this fiction of perfect knowledge. The paper itself acknowledges that there are significant uncertainties in the impact of water vapor, clouds, aerosols, the carbon cycle, the sun, the catch-all internal fluctuations etc (the Academy doesnt even mention the king-sized uncertainties about the influence of multi-decadal Pacific and Atlantic oscillations). And whatever validation of the models occurred with respect to past temperatures, it was achieved by endless tweaking of parameters using the benefits of hindsight."
## [3920] "Another Example of Climate Model Failure: Actual Ozone In Wealthy Countries Does Exact Opposite of Predictions"
## [3921] "One of Briffa??s regional chronologies was AVAM-TAIMYR, which was produced by merging the Taimyr chronology with another site, Bol??shoi Avam, located no less than 400 kilometres away. While the original Taimyr site had something of a divergence problem, with narrowing ring widths implying cooler temperatures, the new composite site of Avam???Taimyr had a rather warmer twentieth century and a cooler Medieval Warm Period. The effect of this blending of datasets was therefore, as so often with paleoclimate adjustments, to produce a warming trend."
## [3922] "Stated more plainly, the historical temperature record does not agree with what computer models say should have happened. The upshot is that, if the models get the past 10 thousand years or so wrong, how can we trust them to predict the future? The answer, of course, is that we can not. The situation is made clearer in the graphic from the paper referenced in the quote above."
## [3923] "Further, in the presence of multidecadal oscillations with a nominal 60-80 yr time scale, convincing attribution requires that you can attribute the variability for more than one 60-80 yr period, preferably back to the mid 19th century. Not being able to address the attribution of change in the early 20th century to my mind precludes any highly confident attribution of change in the late 20th century."
## [3924] "My conclusion (which, is different from that of the authors) based upon the research presented by Santer et al.?that the models are on the verge of failing?is further strengthened by the results of another paper published in 2011 by Foster and Rahmstorf."
## [3925] "In short, the careerist climate AGW scientists and their political insiders conspired to convince the world that humans had to pay dearly for exhaling the carbon gases that the natural world and our trees inhales to flourish."
## [3926] "This morning I read a terrific recounting of the the fact that a whole section of the scientific establishment is defending Gleick on the grounds that it??s OK to lie to promote their cause?? from the intellectual heights of the establishment and specifically from those who have proclaimed themselves to be experts on scientific ethics. (Fake But Accurate Science, TIA Daily , subscription required). Following on my post Fakegate: Its what they do , and Anthonys continuing elaboration of the noble cause corruption, this recalled for me a recent experience that had nagged at the back of my mind, bothersome for what it indicates. And it all fits together."
## [3927] "The problem: Meehl et al (2013) are using a climate model ( NCAR CCSM4 ) that doesnt properly simulate the coupled ocean-atmosphere processes that drive El Nios and La Nias. As far as I know, there are no climate models that properly simulate El Nio and La Nia processes. Weve discussed this numerous times, and as a reference on those occasions, Ive presented Guilyardi et al (2009) Understanding El Nio in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges . Guilyardi et al (2009) is a detailed overview of the problems climate models have in their attempts at simulating ENSO, and it cites more than 100 other papers. I introduced Guilyardi et al (2009) in my post here . Later in this post, well also present one of the very obvious failures that occur because models cant simulate El Nio and La Nia processes."
## [3928] "Calls for an independent inquiry into what is being dubbed Climategate are growing as the foundation for man-made global warming implodes following the release of emails which prove researchers colluded to manipulate data in order to hide the decline in global temperatures."
## [3929] "Everybody understands that suburban sprawl, snow removal, pavement, brick, dark roofs, huge amounts of fuel being burned, etc. causes temperatures to rise. It defies explanation how scientists could accept a finding that UHI is not affecting the temperature record."
## [3930] "Our assessment of the intermodel spread in the instantaneous forcing from CO2 is similar to that obtained by Collins et al (2006) for both the shortwave and longwave components. Collins et al (2006) documented that at the top of model the range of instantaneous forcing for a doubling of CO2 is 1.2Wm2 for the longwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum and 0.5Wm2 for the shortwave part. These ranges, respectively, correspond to 2.4Wm2 and 1.0Wm2 for a quadrupling of CO2 if the curve of growth of forcing withCO2 holds. This agreement further supports the validity of the kernel methodology. The spread is significantly larger than that obtained by Collins et al using line-by-line calculations, indicating that the spread in forcing calculations does not reflect uncertainties in radiative transfer theory, but in the fidelity of its implementation in climate models."
## [3931] "So, the picture of changes in ENSO, when viewed in terms rainfall response patterns, may be limited by errors and biases that have been long-term features in climate models. Research is required to test the potential impact of SST biases on the change in average precipitation in the tropics. We must improve models, but we must also to better understand the processes whereby biases in present-day simulations link to future projections. Until we get a better handle on these issues, the prediction of an overall increase in rainfall in the eastern tropical Pacific, and its year-to-year variability, remains uncertain."
## [3932] "And when the models dont resemble the global temperature observations, inasmuch as the models do not have the multidecadal variations of the instrument temperature record, the layman becomes wary. They casually research and discover that natural multidecadal variations have stopped the global warming in the past for 30 years, and they believe it can happen again. Also, the layman can see very clearly that the models have latched onto a portion of the natural warming trends, and that the models have projected upwards from there, continuing the naturally higher multidecadal trend, without considering the potential for a future flattening for two or three or four decades. In short, to the layman, the models appear bogus."
## [3933] "If theres anything Ive learned in the past year, Ive learned that the science of climate isnt settled. The politics however, are a different story."
## [3934] "Politician Smith politely makes multi-disciplinary arguments assuming the best intentions of his opponents. Academic Sass goes ad hominem on the Keystone XL pipeline issue and refers vaguely to a scientific consensus for his position."
## [3935] "NASA temperature figures show agency reworking recent numbers upwards, older numbers downwards"
## [3936] "The station that got all this started with an errant temperature, Gravesend , is east of London along the Thames. I theorized then that that Thames itself might be a source of heat for that station, and given the density of power plants along it shown above, there might be some truth to that theory."
## [3937] "The IPCC and most anthropogenic believers want to maintain the belief that global warming during the past 100 years has been caused by human activity alone, and this is why most of their climate talks and lectures do not even mention prior global warming cycles."
## [3938] "Outlandish and misleading claims by global warming alarmists such as Running explain why the public increasingly tunes out the alarmists' unending predictions of doom and gloom. If they want people to take them seriously, they must begin speaking truth rather than propaganda."
## [3939] "\"The problem with tree rings appears to be that their variations reflect more than year-to-year climate differences (temperature and/or precipitation). As the trees age, tree-ring production changes and introduces a spurious trend in the tree-ring series. This aging effect differs among tree species, as well as within species, depending on the trees' growing conditions (soil type, elevation, slope aspect, etc.). It becomes difficult to separate trends due to aging from those due to climate."
## [3940] "For example, the model range could be much tighter, indicating that the models were in better agreement with one another as to what the simulated trend should be. As it is now, the model range during the period 1951-2012 extends from 0.07C/decade to 0.21C/decade (note that the observed trend is 0.107C/decade). And this is from models which were run largely with observed changes in climate forcings (such as greenhouse gas emissions, aerosol emissions, volcanoes, etc.) and for a period of time (62 years) during which short-term weather variations should all average out. In other words, they are all over the place."
## [3941] "So the story leading to the letter begins with the development and approval of the APS Statement. There is evidence that the process itself that produced the Statement was at least highly questionable if not downright illegitimate. It is known that a small group of individuals, not satisfied with the degree of alarm contained in the original draft produced by the officially charged committee, acted unilaterally and without authority to raise the level of alarm. A senior APS professional confides in writing that"
## [3942] "Ridiculous. There is hardly a skeptic alive who doesn??t think that human activity is causing some climate change, and in particular, some amount of warming. The question is whether one accepts the IPCC??s claim of extreme certainty that the human release of greenhouse gases is responsible for most late 20th century warming, and is on course to cause a dangerous amount of warming over the next century. Skeptics see this as unlikely, or as unsupported by the evidence, but it all comes down to the size of the human warming effect."
## [3943] "But what about the glaciers? Three years ago The Guardian was hysterical about an iceberg calving from the Petermann Glacier."
## [3944] "???scenario B assumes a reduced linear growth of trace gases, ?? ?? Hansen??s predicted temperature increase, from 1988 to 2012, is 0.75 C, OVER THREE TIMES HIGHER thanthe actual increase of 0.22 C."
## [3945] "The press release states that Al Gore is one of the world's leading environmental politicians, even though the administration he was the vice president of did not even manage to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. His one achievement was a public policy stunt full of scaremongering and misrepresentation."
## [3946] "The bottom line on this is simple: I can??t pretend to know the temperature within a few kilometers of my house right now to within a couple of degrees C without making basic scientific errors in everything from measurement and imagined precision to application ??? and when people like Jones and Hansen announce in all apparent seriousness that the entire earth is now 0.5C degrees warmer than it was during the period from 1961 to 1990 they??re asking us to accept a very precise number on the basis of data that??s much worse than mine and in the face of applicability, measurement, and computational ambiguities that are orders of magnitude greater."
## [3947] "Most authors use values close to k = 0.269 at the characteristic-emission level in the upper atmosphere: however, Kimoto is not the only author to question whether that value is applicable at the surface. Indeed, he says the value of k should really be as little as 0.15 K/W/m2, to make proper allowance for non-radiative transports in the atmosphere, such as evaporation from the Earths surface, which exercises a considerable cooling effect. In general, the models relied upon by the IPCC parametrize non-radiative transports very poorly, if at all."
## [3948] "3. Most significantly, the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 adopted the UNFCCC treaty on the basis of a 30-year cooling trend followed by only 12 years of warming. That treaty dogmatically redefined climate change as being anthropogenic and eventually committed over 190 countries to combat dangerous warming."
## [3949] "Ah, yes, not only are they going to tweak the mid-century temperatures, but they are also going to make recent temperatures warmer than they are currently being reported. This will kill two birds with one stone."
## [3950] "As Roy Spencer and John Christy have pointed out, all 73 climate models are forecast higher temperature trends in the atmosphere above the tropics, than what is being observed. Many of the models forecast trends that are more than twice of what is observed. A further issue with the study is that the period coinciding with the ending of the Little Ice Age is hardly the proper place to start the base. See links under Communicating Better to the Public Exaggerate, or be Vague? and http://www.drroyspencer.com/2013/06/still-epic-fail-73-climate-models-vs-measurements-running-5-year-means/"
## [3951] "This is an opinion about opinions of experts who use models that we know cant predict temperatures. Not only is this fact already piled three layers of nonsense deep, the most abjectly stupid point is the fourth layer, the pretense that these models might , in their wildest dreams, be able to predict rainfall which is an order of magnitude harder than just predicting global temperature. Predicting bushfires is dependent on knowing not just total rainfall in one region, but how that rainfall is spread throughout the year. Not to mention that bushfires depend on wind speed, wind direction, land-use (fuel load), and humidity."
## [3952] "Yep, you read that correctly. The tropical hotspot trends are lower than the global atmospheric trend and the global surface trend - a magnificent and spectacular fail of IPCC climate \"science.\""
## [3953] "In other words, the NSF would like us to believe that the theory that increasing ocean acidification will slow coral calcification rates is correct, even though it is not readily observed because other confounding variables are involved. However, given time, these other confounding variables could be overwhelmed by the increasing acidification."
## [3954] "According to our result, the rapid warming during 1970-1990 contains a large fraction of unpredictable natural variability due to the AO. The subsequent period of 1990-2010 indicates a clear trend of the AO to be negative. The global warming has been stopped by natural variability superimposed on the gentle anthropogenic global warming. The important point is that the IPCC models have been tuned perfectly to fit the rapid warming during 1970-1990 by means of the ice-albedo feedback (anthropogenic forcing) which is not actually observed. IPCC models are justified with this wrong scientific basis and are applied to project the future global warming for 100 years in the future. Hence, we warn that the IPCC models overestimate the warming trend due to the mislead Arctic Oscillation."
## [3955] "...In tropical regions, the models are too dry in the lower troposphere and too moist in the upper troposphere, (p763)"
## [3956] "PSI have also shown that despite their huge complexity, the global temperature output of the models can be emulated to a 98% accuracy by a simple one-line equation. This means that their estimate of the ???climate sensitivity?? is entirely a function of their choice of forcings meaning, of course, that even on a good day with a following wind they can tell us nothing about the climate sensitivity."
## [3957] "Beyond that, we know very little. All the dire predictions that we hear so much are based on a series of \"ifs,\" embodied in computer models and unlikely assumptions. Moreover, since the IPCC reported last, the scientific picture has gotten even hazier. All the accumulated scientific research points to more and more uncertainty about what we know in the area of climate change."
## [3958] "\"On one hand our politicians are committing us to spending unimaginable sums on wind farms, emissions trading schemes, absurdly ambitious biofuel targets, and every kind of tax and regulation designed to reduce our \"carbon footprint\" - all based on blindly accepting the predictions of computer models that the planet is overheating due to our output of greenhouse gases. On the other hand, a growing number of scientists are producing ever more evidence to show how those computer models are based on wholly inadequate data and assumptions - as is being confirmed by the behaviour of nature itself (not least the continuing non-arrival of sunspot cycle 24).\" LINK"
## [3959] "* \"There seem to be significant problems with the measurement of global surface temperatures over both the relatively short run late 20th century and longer run past millennium problems that systematically tend to cause an overestimation of late 20th century temperature increases relative to the past;"
## [3960] "Five time IPCC expert reviewer Vincent Gray takes these calculations a bit further. He compares the average energy loss over a year for an average of eleven hurricanes lasting one week with the heat from a supposedly increase in warming from the enhanced greenhouse since 1750. Gray concludes that hurricanes, alone, conceal any possible much smaller effects of greenhouse gases which could never be identified. The models are not only wrong. They are irrelevant. See link under Changing Weather."
## [3961] "New research questions the forecasting methods scientists have been using to predict future global warming"
## [3962] "* The IPCC does not even study climate change in its entirety, or all the complex, interrelated forces that cause periodic warming, cooling and other changes. It analyzes only variations allegedly caused by humans, and assumes that all recent and future changes are human-caused and dangerous. Its analyses, conclusions and recommendations therefore do not form a credible basis for public policies."
## [3963] "In contrast, there is the paper of Abatzoglou, Rupp, and Mote (2014) that suggests greenhouse gases are the dominant source of warming. Specifically, they stated that anthropogenic forcing was \"the leading contributor to long term warming.\" In their paper, they used a technique called multiple linear regression to determine the forcing of temperature by several forcing mechanism (natural variability, volcanoes, solar variability, and human greenhouse gas forcing). Their results suggested that anthropogenic contributions (greenhouse gases) were dominant. But unfortunately, their approach has some critical problems that make their conclusions insupportable. Problems so severe I am surprised they got through the review process."
## [3964] "The effect is quite clear. The recent ???spurious?? measurement remains unchanged, and the past gets colder."
## [3965] "What Roy Spencer found was confirmation for the twentieth time that the models are wrong about this their major, most important feedback."
## [3966] "The fact that The Age responded in such a way is, I suggest, obvious evidence of a clear editorial agenda at work to support the alarmist viewpoint, and to dismiss anything which challenges it."
## [3967] "Approximately 300 people including scientists, engineers, and other experts, about half with doctorate degrees, have petitioned U.S. House Science Committee Chairman Lamar Smith (R-TX) to carefully investigate suspiciously overheated climate temperature book-cooking by the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)."
## [3968] "Hoskins: The models are not in the position to predict the hiatus, because of lack of initial conditions. You would not expect them to predict that behavior. You would hope that in long runs of the model they would show this, but models do not have enough of that kind of variability. That is a decadal prediction problem for which adequate initial conditions are not available"
## [3969] "In contrast to the satellite data, which exhibit a slight increase in SIE , the mean SIE of the models over 19792005 shows a decrease in each month, the report explained."
## [3970] "...An additional and important discrepancy between the models and reality extends into the lower atmosphere as well. In the lower atmosphere, climate models expectations are that the degree of warming with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations should be greater than that experienced at the surface, with the lower atmosphere warming about 1.4 times faster than the average surface temperature. Despite claims that observations and models are in agreement (Santer et al., 2008), new analyses incorporating a large number of both observational datasets as well as climate model projections, clearly and strongly demonstrate that the surface warming (which itself is below the model mean) is significantly outpacing the warming in the lower atmosphere contrary to climate model expectations . Instead of exhibiting 40% more warming than the surface, the lower atmosphere is warming 25% lessa statistically significant difference (Christy et al., 2010)."
## [3971] "Given that both NANSEN and NSIDC use the same SSMI sensor data, and calculate the extent based on 15% concentration, that half a million square kilometers difference in the ???normal?? sure seems significant in the context of the magnified extent view NSIDC presents. A half million here, a half million there, and pretty soon we are talking about real ice extent differences."
## [3972] "Perhaps its time to ask why this story being revealed overseas with new revelations almost daily in the Daily Mail, the Telegraph, the Timesonline, and other Fleet Street publications can??t get any traction here. Blogs like Watts up with That and Climate Depot are keeping us informed of the latest from England but we hear crickets chirping when it comes to stories from major newspapers and ??? outside of Fox News ??? the cable nets."
## [3973] "This did not stop alarmist sources from reacting as if the Joint Chiefs had become global warming catastrophists. The Observer's story was titled (and subtitled), \"Now the Pentagon tells Bush: climate change will destroy us. Secret report warns of rioting and nuclear war, Britain will be 'Siberian' in less than 20 years, Threat to the world is greater than terrorism.\""
## [3974] "Indeed, more recent studies confirm that the IPCC overestimated the level of greenhouse gas emissions humans are likely to create in the rest of this century, and may also overestimate overall population growth, economic growth, technological progress, and other factors that drive aggregate greenhouse gas emissions."
## [3975] "If a Religion of Global Warming follower asks you why the US won't sign the Kyoto treaty...show them this graph. It should shut them up immediately. Hat Tips to Red State and WILLismsOf course, it probably won't shut them up. So make sure you have a copy of the Index of Leading Environmental Indicators: 2008 report written by Stephen F. Hayward at the Pacific Research Institute."
## [3976] "The consistent positive relationships between temperature and ring width chronologies are a very different pattern than we observed with the Dulan junipers. There are a couple of possibilities: this site is a magic thermometer; the correlation, while seemingly significant, is nonetheless ???spurious?? ??? a topic discussed on many occasions on this blog, the type example being the ???99% significant?? correlation between alcoholism and Church of England marriages reported by Yule in the 1920s. Or maybe there??s something about the location of the site that makes it a better but non-magic thermometer. Regardless, the positive correlations at site HBL don??t alter the results of Zhang et al 2003, which are the ones that apply to the south-facing Dulan junipers used in Yang et al 2002."
## [3977] "To adapt that old legal aphorism, when you've got decisive scientific evidence on your side, you argue the evidence. When you've got great arguments, you make the arguments. When you don't have decisive evidence or great arguments, you claim consensus."
## [3978] "If Mann really wanted to spread truth rather than propaganda, he would have noted that a recent survey of American Meteorological Society (AMS) atmospheric scientists found only 38 percent of AMS scientists believe future warming will be very harmful, and an even smaller 30 percent are very worried about global warming. This is a far cry from Manns unsupported assertion that 97 percent agree we must respond to the dangers of a warming planet."
## [3979] "Temperatures are lower than Hansen forecast they would be if humans disappeared off the planet twelve years ago."
## [3980] "Nobel Physics laureate Ivar Giaever has called global warming (aka, climate change) alarmism a \"new religion\" . . . a temple built on grounds of faith rather than upon scientific foundations. In this church, all unfortunate events that occur are attributed to human causation. Eco-elitist doom prophets and profiteers perpetrate dogma and intimidation to extract offerings of penance in exchange for promised salvation from fossil-fueled hellfire."
## [3981] "Therefore, we use five models that have more than 10 members of the historical and RCP4.5 simulations to take a closer look at the recent SATg linear trends (Figure 2). Two model ensembles (CNRM-CM5 and CanCM4) exhibit a narrow spread, which means that they may not encompass a sufficient range of natural uctuations. The remaining three ensembles (CSIRO Mk-3.6, HadCM3, and MIROC5) include the observed SATg linear trend for 19912000 (0.26 K per decade) in a 50th percentile, and for 20012010 (0.03 K per decade) in a lower 5075th percentile. The discrepancy appears small, but it becomes larger when we include the latest two years of 20112012 in the estimate. The large spread of more than 0.3 K in the three ensembles suggests that the observed hiatus was due to a large natural fluctuation and/or the GCMs are systematically biased to produce a warmer surface for a particular reason."
## [3982] "Temperatures have been directly measured for a little over a century. The number of locations at which temperature is taken has gradually increased, reaching something like full coverage only in the last thirty to forty years. It is certain that at many individual stations mankind has caused changes in measured temperature. Mankind caused both warming, due to the urban heat island effects, and cooling, such as by land use changes."
## [3983] "Based on simulations provided by mathematical models, climate alarmists generally predict more frequent and more severe floods in response to global warming. In this summary we examine real-world data relative to this claim as it pertains to Asia."
## [3984] "The graph below shows the absolute difference between Fort Collins temperatures and Boulder temperatures since 1930. There is some sort of discontinuity around 1940, but the UHI imprint is clearly visible in the Fort Collins record. The Colorado State Climatologist, Nolan Doesken manages the Fort Collins Weather station. He has told me that it has never moved or changed instrumentation. and that he believes the increase in temperature is due to UHI effects."
## [3985] "In what is destined itself to become a much-derided quote in future years, Connor protests that snowy winters are weather not climate and therefore prove nothing, before immediately pointing to Russias hot summer as proof of global warming:"
## [3986] "Stealth advocacy on climate change: A catastrophic failure of science"
## [3987] "The authors write that \"sea-level rise is a high-profile and important aspect of climate change,\" noting that \"in the last two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments, the sum of observed contributions to sea-level rise has consistently been less than the observed rise over multi-decadal periods, thus reducing confidence in the sea-level projections.\" Therefore, they made a new attempt at achieving what had been so elusive in the past."
## [3988] "How is it possible that so many politicians, their huge bureaucracies, important groups in the scientific establishment, an important segment of business people and almost all journalists see it differently? The only reasonable explanation is that ? without having paid sufficient attention to the arguments ? they have already invested too much into global warming alarmism. Some of them are afraid that by losing this doctrine their political and professional pride would suffer. Others are earning a lot of money on it and are afraid of losing that source of income. Business people hope they will make a fortune out of it and are not ready to write it off. They all have a very tangible vested interest in it. We should say loudly: this coalition of powerful special interests is endangering us."
## [3989] "Eliminating Tall Tales from Fat Tails: On her web site, Climate Etc., Judith Curry discusses the issue of climate sensitivity, the temperature response of the climate to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. The fat tails are the significant error ranges on the high-end of possible temperature increases from enhanced CO2, usually from a doubling. These error ranges are not empirically derived, but are estimated, guessed, usually by the modelers. They may have little relation to the earths climate history."
## [3990] "In more detail, the ACORN-SAT Melbourne minimum temperatures before 1990 are shifted up relative to the raw data. The stepped adjustments would suggest instrument changes but the BOM records show thus is not the case. Further, there is no sign of the step changes in the direct Melbourne temperature records. An upward correction is also applied to the maximum temperatures, but is applied only to the past, before 1990, and not the present."
## [3991] "If there's something wrong about the weather record, it must affect pretty much \"most\" of the raw data from the weather stations. Those raw data are used in pretty much all the datasets mentioned in the previous paragraph which could explain the high degree of their agreement (even if all of them are very inaccurate). But the global averages seem to be rather robust with respect to the omission of a substantial percentage of the weather stations etc. so I tend to believe that the graph of the surface global mean temperature isn't mainly determined by several \"bad apples\"."
## [3992] "Just look at what the CO2 alarmists say as soon as their predicted warming fails to show up (April 2008 ):"
## [3993] "An opportunity to get the climate alarmists case before a court to be cross-examined in a judicial environment sounds too good to miss. The claimants will have to prove an extremely long chain of causation, namely that the rising sea levels are a result of rising temperatures, which are themselves a result of increased CO2 emissions, which are a result of mans burning of fossil fuels."
## [3994] "For the model-data comparison of the Pacific (60S-65N, 120E-80W), see Figure 2. The HADGEM2-ES simulated a warming rate of about 0.19 deg C/ decade for the sea surface temperature of the Pacific from January, 1982 to August, 2013, but the observed Pacific sea surface temperatures warmed at a rate that was less than 1/3 of the rate guesstimated by the UKMO??s HADGEM2-ES."
## [3995] "The Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, or NIPCC, is an international panel of scientists and scholars who came together to understand the causes and consequences of climate change. NIPCC has no formal attachment to or sponsorship from any government or governmental agency. It is wholly independent of political pressures and influences and therefore is not predisposed to produce politically motivated conclusions or policy recommendations."
## [3996] "What I can say from the standpoint of applying the scientific method to a robust response-feature of models, is that the average model result is inconsistent with the observed rate of change of tropical tropospheric temperature - inconsistent both in absolute magnitude and in vertical structure (Douglass and Christy 2013.) This indicates our ignorance of the climate system is still enormous and, as suggested by Stevens and Bony, this performance by the models indicates we need to go back to the basics. From this statement there is only a short distance to the next - the use of climate models in policy decisions is, in my view, not to be recommended at this time."
## [3997] "And when one considers that land surface temperatures are in part a product of sea surface temperatures, one wonders how climate scientists/modelers could ever attempt to simulate land surface temperatures when the oceans are modeled so poorly."
## [3998] "During the past few days, I??ve been assessing the GHCN-Daily dataset , which is a very large data set and plan to do a number of posts on this topic, including a description of the data set. It turns out that literally hundreds of stations that expire around 1989 or 1990 in the NASA data set are alive and thriving in the GHCN-Daily parallel universe. More on this over the next few days."
## [3999] "Verification of the forced component of twentieth- century climate trends simulated in model experiments depends on the existence of accurate estimates of these trends in observations. Given the limited sampling in both space and time of the observations and proxy records, these verifications must be handled carefully. In particular, knowledge of the spatial patterns and magnitudes of climate trends over the oceans is hampered by the uneven and changing distribution of commercial shipping routes and other observational inputs as well as different approaches to merging analyses of the observations (Rayner et al. 2011)."
## [4000] "Where has global warming gone? Onto the ash heap of the history of the last twenty-plus years of bad policies, wasted billions of the public treasure, and all of it driven by the UNs mendacious science."
## [4001] "Examples of documented questionable climate record adjusting by the climate agency officials are not hard to find: Melbourne , U.S. western areas , 1997 global versus 2014 , winter 2014 , U.S corn belt , Texas winter temps , Paraguay , Africa , Iceland , GISS land temps , northern hemisphere pre-1940 , Alice Springs (Australia) , Bolivia , U.S. temperature trends , Arctic adjustments , Antarctica , New Zealand , Australia , Germany , and many others ."
## [4002] "The EPA has used non-public data to justify 85 percent of $2 trillion worth of Clean Air Act regulation benefits from 1990 to 2020. The agency also uses such datasets to assert that Clean Air Act regulation benefits exceed the costs by a 30:1 ratio originates from the secret data sets."
## [4003] "I looked through the metadata for all of the stations in Wisconsin, and only found one which lists a morning time of observation for much ofthe 1930s. This should cause the temperatures to be recorded too low."
## [4004] "The inconvenient Heartland facts that tear asunder the Democrat lies and the climate change hoax :"
## [4005] "In summary, the WWF report Worlds Top 10 Rivers at Risk which is making news today, is about 20 years out of date at least with respect to the Murray River. Indeed while numbers of native fish have on average, probably declined since European settlement, with a crash in Murray Cod populations in the early 1960s, there is evidence to suggest numbers of native fish, including the Murray Cod, are now on the increase while invasive species are on the decline. So the WWF has got it all the wrong way around. Then again, they are perhaps more interested in hand-waving than river ecology."
## [4006] "It will not be an easy task. However the IPCC chooses to deal with the problem the repercussions are unpleasant. They might try to explain away the warming hiatus in some way: the in-vogue explanation is that the heat that should have been in the atmosphere has escaped, undetected, to the deep oceans. Evidence to support this idea is, however, scant at best, and going down this route is going to involve the IPCC admitting that there is much about the climate system that is not yet understood. This will be a hard act to carry off while simultaneously claiming that they are certain that mankind caused most of the recent warming."
## [4007] "Science has never established the cause of that 1910 to 1940 warming. If the early century warming happened without CO2, how do we know that the late century warming was caused by CO2? Various attempts have been made to explain the early century warming, for example by a change in the suns output, but the embarrassing truth is that the early century warming remains unexplained. As long as the cause of the early century warming is unexplained it is not reasonable to try to blame the late century warming exclusively or mostly on CO2."
## [4008] "Geologist: IPCC Confuses Prognoses With Facts 15-Year Climate Development No Longer Agrees With IPCC Models"
## [4009] "Despite the Hype, NAS Report Confirms Uncertainties in Global Warming Science"
## [4010] "What I deny is the catastrophe the proposition that man-made global warming** will cause catastrophic climate changes whose adverse affects will outweigh both the benefits of warming as well as the costs of mitigation. I believe that warming forecasts have been substantially exaggerated (in part due to positive feedback assumptions) and that tales of current climate change trends are greatly exaggerated and based more on noting individual outlier events and not through real data on trends ( see hurricanes , for example)."
## [4011] "But that wasnt going to scare anyone out of their money, so they simply altered the data. The graph below shows the difference between todays NCDC published US temperatures, and the thermometer data which it is based on."
## [4012] "On the other hand, according to the climate models used by the IPCC, the East Pacific sea surface temperatures SHOULD HAVE warmed roughly 0.42 to 0.45 deg C over that period, IF they were warmed by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Obviously, they havent been warmed by greenhouse gases. Shouldve, wouldve, couldve."
## [4013] "Zimmermans Masters thesis, the foundation of the EOS paper, apparently did not appear on line until September 2011, two years and eight months after the EOS paper was published (how media and others could trumpet the results presented in the EOS paper without first examining the survey methodology and raw data is a topic for another blog posting). Zimmermans thesis can now be downloaded here for $1.98. It is well worth reading, not only to note the apparent researcher bias revealed in the introduction and the obvious flaws in much of the survey methodology, but also as an interesting summary of the problems in the research on consensus among climate experts to that point. Even more illuminating are the thesis appendices which include hundreds of comments from the scientists being polled. Therein, it is revealed that many of the very serious problems with the survey questions and methodology were pointed out repeatedly by the scientist respondents while the poll was being run."
## [4014] "Accordingly climate alarmists have circled the wagons and refused to debate with climate skeptics, preferring hit pieces such as Years of Living Dangerously. Climate modeler Gavin Schmidt and Michael Manns side kick on the RealClimate website, would only appear on John Stossels show if there was no face to face debate and skeptic scientist Dr. Roy Spencer removed himself while Schmidt was on stage. And Michael Mann, the creator of the hockey stick interpretation of climate change not only calls everyone who disagrees with his viewpoint a denier but anti-science . But it is only via thorough skeptical examination that challenges every hypothesis does a scientific opinion become trustworthy. But climate alarmists like Mann demean any and all who question CO2 as deniers, as if the truth has been already determined. They promote their view on websites and op-ed pieces encouraging a new intellectual tyranny aimed at shutting down all skeptics."
## [4015] "I wonder how many of these thousands of the global warming scientists developed and/or supported the warming model published in 1995 by the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the worlds leading agency for global warming, that predicted a rise of 2.780 C for the century and a rise of 0.70 C for the decade. This has been demonstrated to be absolutely wrong (see attached Chart 2) even though CO2 concentrations have continued to increase. Even the IPCC had to admit that they were wrong and modified its model in 2005 to show a significantly lower 10-year temperature rise of 0.170 C for the decade and a 1.670 C rise for the century."
## [4016] "There is no smoking gun available, no hurricane called Climate Change: yet, this fact is not important because, in the subculture of Global Warming, every atmospheric phenomenon is obviously caused by our misbehavior"
## [4017] "In Black Swan Climate Theory II we explain, in depth, why, in my opinion, I believe this is not an accident. I have concluded American basic climate data has been hijacked and corrupted within NOAA through the use of a simple master computer algorithm that I have repeated here."
## [4018] "38 R. A. Kerr, Greenhouse Forecasting Still Cloudy, Science 276, 1041 (1997). Even these assessments are highly optimistic because the necessary observing systems with demonstrated capabilities to detect the climate effect of increasing anthropogenic CO2 are not yet in place."
## [4019] "A paper published today in Geophysical Research Letters finds that El Ninos were more common during the frigid Little Ice Age, and conversely, La Ninas were more common during the Medieval and Roman Warm Periods. This finding is the opposite to claims by the IPCC and climate alarmists such as KevinTrenberththatglobal warming, if it resumes, will make El Ninos more frequent."
## [4020] "Temperature adjustments such as those due to change in instrumentation are, of course, necessary. However, the results shown in this paper demonstrate that the lack of correctly and consistently sited stations results in an inherent uncertainty in the datasets which should be addressed at the root by documenting the micrometeorological deficiencies in the sites and by adhering to sites which conform to standards such as the GCOS Climate Monitoring Principles ( http://gosic.org/GCOS/GCOS climate monitoring principles.htm ). A continued mode of corrections using approaches where statistical uncertainties are not quantified is not a scientifically sound methodology and should be avoided, considering the importance of such surface station data to a broad variety of climate applications as well as climate variability and change studies."
## [4021] "???I replicated her study in order to assess the accuracy of its results. All abstracts listed on the ISI databank for 1993 to 2003 using the same keywords (global climate change??) were assessed. The results of my analysis contradict Oreskes?? findings and essentially falsify her study: Of all 1117 abstracts, only 13 (1%) explicitly endorse the ???consensus view??. However, 34 abstracts reject or question the view that human activities are the main driving force of the observed warming over the last 50 years??."
## [4022] "Carter carefully describes the attempts by Michael Mann and his colleagues to wipe out the Medieval Warm Period as an historical event through the invention of the ?Hockey Stick?. The consequent unmasking of this fraud is an exciting story, well told here, with careful attention to the details and with references to a wide range of papers. In Australia, members of the Climategate conspiracy, notably David Karoly, kept on supporting the Hockey Stick well beyond 2007, a defence which might be seen as heroic under the circumstances, but which for the conspirators was a necessity, given the crucial role of the Hockey Stick in defence of the IPCC?s arguments about the unprecedented nature of late-twentieth-century global warming."
## [4023] "\"Besides, if global warming is settled science, like gravity or the Earth not being flat, why isn't the agreement 100 percent?\" Spencer asked. \"And since when is science settled by a survey or a poll? The hallmark of a good scientific theory is its ability to make good predictions.\""
## [4024] "* IPCC computer climate models have thus far not been able to predict warming or other climate changes accurately for even short, 10-year periods. It is therefore highly unlikely that they can do so for 100 years in the future. Therefore, they should not be used as the basis for energy and economic policies."
## [4025] "Computer model predictions of 1.4-4.5 C global warming per CO2 doubling have remained unchanged for 36 years: yet the IPCCs medium-term global warming predictions made 25 years ago have proven exaggerated by a factor of two. Would it not have been appropriate at least to mention the models continuing exaggerations?"
## [4026] "Of course this is not the first time scientists have been caught leaving out inconvenient data tending to disconfirm their pre-conceived conclusion humans are causing dangerous climate change."
## [4027] "Not only is Mr. Weaver an IPCC insider. He has also, over the years, generated his own volume of climate advocacy that often seemed to have crossed that dangerous line between hype and science."
## [4028] "As illustrated and discussed in If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads? , the IPCCs climate models cannot simulate the rates at which surface temperatures warmed and cooled since 1901 on a global basis, so their failings on a zonal-mean basis as discussed in this post come as no surprise."
## [4029] "Nor is Hansen part of the hallowed scientific \"consensus\" on global warming. He's much more apocalyptic. He still predicts faster and much greater sea-level rises, ice-sheet meltings and species extinctions than the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."
## [4030] "Prof. Lindzen critiques climate model calculations. We are expected to swoon over the fact that climate models, which are run on supercomputers, are state-of-the-art achievements in science. But ???state-of-the-art?? does not always mean accurate, or even useful, if the art is still in its infancy."
## [4031] "On Thursday, the Met Office launched its new report on global warming, UK Climate Predictions 2009 otherwise known as UKCP09 . This is based on the output of Hadley Centre climate models that predict temperature increases of up to 6C with wetter winters, dryer summers, more heatwaves, rising sea levels, more floods and all the other catastrophes that one would expect from similar exercises in alarmism."
## [4032] "Also, catch the date on emails withheld as being correspondence to Phil Jones and others in the deliberative processof drafting IPCC 5th Assessment Report, written before there was an AR5 deliberative process (for whatever that is worth: Arizona??s law recognizes no such exemption; also, IPCC acknowledges performing no scientific research). There are also some fun claims of privilege for, e.g., a workshop concepts paper, an AGU meeting abstract, and a UCS summary??. Thats just the Overpeck index of withholdings; the Hughes index crafts dozens of categories or reasons why emails should be exempt (e.g., not merely correspondence between authors, and between colleagues, but between collaborators?? )."
## [4033] "The news release is largely based on a statistical analysis of rainfall data. Few details are given, but it is obvious that the analysis did not properly model autoregression. When proper modeling is done, I am confident that there will not be a significant increase in either rainfall or extreme rainfall events. Indeed that would be obvious to anyone knowledgeable in time series."
## [4034] "Parts of the green movement have become hijacked by a political agenda and now operate like multinational corporations, according to two senior scientists and members of the House of Lords."
## [4035] "Temperatures are plummeting across the globe, but the models are heating up. They probably sense a threat to their funding with the new Congress, and are responding by generating even more nonsensical scenarios."
## [4036] "Worst, all this fakery pales next to what the full Energy and Commerce Committee had blessed as proof of imminent Climate Armageddon in April 2009. The Democrats' superstar witness was renowned climatologist Al Gore, who had earned a C and a D in the only science courses he took in college."
## [4037] "First, they claimed that Mitchell had deleted all the emails concerning AR4. (This excuse came on June 2, 2008, three days after Jones had sent an email asking Mann, Briffa, Ammann and Wahl to delete their emails concerning AR4. We know that Jones and Briffa had corresponded with Mitchell in March about Holland??s request to the Met Office for Review Comments. We do not know when Mitchell was supposed to have deleted his emails.)"
## [4038] "So how would a proxy for cold water become one of the most important contributors to the Moberg (And Juckes) reconstructions of NH temperature? The shortest answer is that it has a hockey stick shape ??? indeed, the HS-ness of the proxy was observed in an early publication of this data in which it was actually overlaid against the MBH hockey stick as shown below. (Overpeck, the second author of this article, has been rumored to be the person who told David Deming about ???getting rid of the MWP??.)"
## [4039] "the president of the Royal Society of London drafted a resolution in favour and circulated it to other academies of science inviting co-signing. The president of the RSC, not a member of the Academy of Science, received the invitation. He considered it consistent with the position of the great majority of scientists, as repeatedly but erroneously claimed by Kyoto proponents, and so signed it. The resolution was not referred to the Academy of Science for comment, not even to its council or president."
## [4040] "While some other bloggers and journalists insist that recent winter snows are proof of global warming effects, they miss the fact that models have been predicting less snow in the norther hemisphere. See this 2005 peer reviewed paper:"
## [4041] "Considering the long years of media-driven drivel about global warming, the hoax should have been over by now, given the exposure in 2009 of thousands of emails between the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)conspirators and growing body of evidence that everything they asserted was a great steaming pile of horse manure."
## [4042] "\"The EPA claims that global warming will lead to catastrophic sea level rise, inundating parts of Florida, but the science does not support these alarmist claims,\" commented CEI's Paul Georgia, environmental research associate and managing editor of the Cooler Heads a bi-weekly newsletter covering global warming issues. \"Such scare mongering has no place in an essentially scientific debate.\""
## [4043] "Second, the issue of less egregious bullying where people outside the predominant leftist consensus are considered beyond the pale. This one is rampant in climate science. The ostracism of non-consensus scientists (most recently Lennaert Bengtsson, see also the recent article on John Christy ), both publicly and privately is bullying."
## [4044] "?(The summary for policymakers) is a document written to scare to public and scare the politicians into providing more funding for their own research and their own political agenda,? he said. ?The actual science report, which it supposedly is based on isn?t going to be released right away. They?ve always done it his way because the summary for policymakers completely disagrees with what the science report is saying. They know that the media and the public are not going to read the science report. And they also know that if any of them get into it, they won?t understand it anyway.?"
## [4045] "We could also use a bit more skepticism regarding claims about human contributions to climate change. These claims depend on the output of climate models that purport to demonstrate a causal link between the observed atmospheric buildup of greenhouse gases and surface temperatures. But these models do a poor job of reproducing the Earth's actual climate. For example:"
## [4046] "Adjacent is another study confirming the lack of prediction skill emanating from the IPCC. India still is hammered by monsoons but rainfall amounts are no different than in the past."
## [4047] "This is laughably false and illustrated by over 3,000 peer-reviewed published scientific papers cited, analyzed, and referenced on this little unpaid-volunteer blog alone, not to mention many others, The NIPCC Report , and blogs by top climate scientists . The UCS is clearly projecting it's own shameful tactics of \"trying to confuse us all\" \"not with facts or reasoned argument - but with disinformation.\""
## [4048] "Their paper - now known to be seriously flawed (click the hockey stick graph for an article by an esteemed physicist) - was going to argue that there were virtually no natural variations of the climate in the past 600 years (and in 1999, millenium) or so and only in the industrial era of the 20th century, the temperatures suddenly started to skyrocket. The medieval warm period was eradicated. For example, on this graph , the red curve is IPCC 1990, the blue curve is MBH99, and the black curve is Moberg 2006. Quite a difference!"
## [4049] "... was disappointed, however, that the poster abstract submitted with Lloyd Keigwin (WHOI), Misrepresentations of Sargasso Sea Temperatures by Global Warming Doubters, was rejected. It had to be truly disappointing when LFCS named Mark Boslough learned that Dr Chlek didn't want incompetent aggressive crackpots to exploit their incredible presence at the conference to attack actual scientists. Let me ignore the long and vacuous Curry-bashing by LFCS Mark Boslough and jump to the most important point of his article:"
## [4050] "The column by Frances Beinecke (Despite misinformation effort, U.S. is targeting climate change, July 11) recites all the tired myths and cliches of the global warming movement but offers not one iota of evidence. One would have hoped the leader of an organization with an annual budget of more than $100 million would be better informed about an issue as important as climate change."
## [4051] "Professor Mann is currently under investigation by Penn State University because of activities related to a closed circle of climate scientists who appear to have been engaged in agenda-driven science. Emails and documents mysteriously released from the previously-prestigious Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom revealed discussions of manipulation and destruction of research data, as well as efforts to interfere with the peer review process to stifle opposing views. The motivation underlying these efforts appears to be a coordinated strategy to support the belief that mankinds activities are causing global warming."
## [4052] "The admission is paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimatic evidence, meaning no direct measures of temperature and precipitation exists. Thus, the reliance I emphasize the wordon tree-ring data as a stand-in for what was not measured."
## [4053] "On Sep 28, 2005, (CG1- 590. 1128000000.txt), Rob Wilson emailed Osborn and Briffa, both IPCC Authors, and complained about my email to ODowd (which had been copied to Wilson). Osborn immediately replied, calling the request that the data be archived an abuse of my position as an IPCC peer reviewer. Rosanne D??Arrigo (CG2-2590) wrote to Osborn and Briffa, advocating that I be ???fired?? as an IPCC reviewer. D??Arrigo urged the Climategaters to be ???very cautious about our emails as Lord V will stop at nothing??:"
## [4054] "Meanwhile, Bjorn Lomborg has his own take on things at Project Syndicate, looking at the IPCC's cost estimates, the attempts to adjust them to help the green movement and the embarrassing chasm between current and earlier estimates like those of Lord Stern:"
## [4055] "Firstly, hundreds of tide gauges show sea level rising at about a third of the rate than satellites do . Worse, the original satellite raw data showed the same slow rise, until it was suddenly adjusted. The real scandal is that the rapidly rising trend was largely created by adjustments in the first place. These latest corrections just adjust down part of the rate which had been created by adjusting up. On top of all that, the long paleo-history of sea levels done by people like Nils-Axel Mrner show that the current rise is not unusual or unprecedented at all. Could it get more pointless? It can: the acceleration Watson et al found is so small its less than the errors. (See the graph below)."
## [4056] "But first, lets illustrate how badly the climate models used by the IPCC simulate global surface temperatures in light of the recent slowdown in global surface warming."
## [4057] "IPCC doesnt write scientific reports for their own sake. Those scientists are there for a purpose. That purpose is to produce material useful to the UNFCCC."
## [4058] "Yet green activists, grant seeking researchers, and self-serving politicians continue to spread climate alarmist lies. Lies based on fiction, not fact. To believe in such unsubstantiated tripe substitutes wishful thinking for logic, and hubris for the humility that science demands of all who study nature. This forces even the worst scientist to the ultimate realization, that nature is always right and science is most often wrong."
## [4059] "So do they get a skeptic to fill the daily ???Another View?? slot they offer to rebut their editorial? No ??? they get another alarmist ! Under the panicky-but-now-tired headline ???We need to act quickly!??, Melanie Fitzpatrick of the Union of Scientists Concerned About Their Grant Funding writes:"
## [4060] "JC message to Marcia McNutt : You have an important and influential position as Chief Editor of Science . You also have the power to damage Science and science through your activism and advocacy of climate change policy, particularly your declaration in a Science editorial that the time for debate has ended ."
## [4061] "We took the more scientific approach of using physics, not curve-fitting. But when the climate campaigners demanded that we should verify our models skill by hindcasts, we ran four tests of our model one against predictions by the UNs climate panel in 1990 and three against recent data. All four times, our model accurately hindcast real-world warming."
## [4062] "As I noted earlier, Taminos post is simply a distraction from my post 17-Year And 30-Year Trends In Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies: The Differences Between Observed And IPCC AR4 Climate Models , which showed the divergence between the trends of the IPCC AR4 model mean for global Sea Surface Temperatures and the observed Sea Surface Temperature trends."
## [4063] "Poor Climate Science Article In The Economist On Glaciers - - By Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. ...Thus, despite the high expectation of quality articles from the Economist, with respect to the topic area of climate change, they are clearly biased and misleading in their coverage. (Via Marc Morano)"
## [4064] "The problem would seem to be the methodologies engendered in treatment for a mix of urban and rural locations; that the adjustment protocol appears to accent to a warming effect rather than eliminate it. This, if correct, leaves serious doubt for whether the rate of increase in temperature found from the adjusted data is due to natural warming trends or warming because of another reason, such as erroneous consideration of the effects of urban warming."
## [4065] "Yet Nuccitelli, in a fine illustration of that blind faith that TH Huxley denounced in 1860 as the one unpardonable sin, asserts that We absolutely do know that the planet is currently warming."
## [4066] "Climategate: Caught Green-Handed! Written by Christopher Monckton"
## [4067] "Example: Imagine that a warming after decades is accompanied by 10% more trees surviving in an area and eventually demands their ???place in the sun??. By measuring tree rings for an individual tree you are not measuring the overall tree growth of the area. And measuring 10.000 trees does not change anything as all trees would have the same problem. Measuring tree pollen or isotopes etc in sediment cores avoids these problems and it makes me wonder how come so much energy has been used for tree ring analyses."
## [4068] "Comparing the 204-month and 360-month hindcastand projected Sea Surface Temperature anomaly trends of the coupled climate models used in the IPCC AR4to the trends of the observed Sea Surface Temperature anomalies is yet another way to show the models have shown no skill at replicating and projecting past and present variations in Sea Surface Temperature on multidecadal bases. Why should we believe they have any value as a means of projecting future climate?"
## [4069] "Another thing they try to do is tamper with the temperature datasets to for example prove there is no pause. That is frankly ridiculous! The pause is the discrepancy between what was predicted and what occurred. And because it is a prediction it can only be based on the datasets available at the time. They can fabricate whatever new datasets they like which they in their crazy minds believe prove the predicted warming occurred, but the predictions were that the datasets available at the time would show warming. None of the datasets which were predicted to warm have shown even the lowest predicted warming (e.g. IPCC 2001)."
## [4070] "In light of the differences among climate model projections, our work stresses the need for more accurate prediction of SST trends in these sensitive areas, and not just the overall amplitude of the Tropical Ocean warming, in order to reduce the uncertainty in global climate forecasts."
## [4071] "As you can see, Hansen has clawed back most of the gains of the 1930s relative to recent years ??? perhaps leading eventually to a re-discovery of 1998 as the warmest U.S. year of the 20th century."
## [4072] "Roy, a Ph.D economist who has been dragged through the ad hominem mud , is right to put the onus on David Appell now that the latters fishing expedition backfired rather badly. One might also challenge Joe Romm, the bully of bullies as documented at the Breakthrough Institute by Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus ."
## [4073] "Much has been written both in favor and against the notion that in the 1970s, the consensus among climatologists was that global cooling was on its way (strangely, foretelling similar disasters as with global warming nowadays, including refugees in the millions, crop failures, droughts and extreme weather throughout)."
## [4074] "The world awaits answers, based not on writings of sundry freelance journalists and non-experts, but on actual verifiable data on whether the globe is warming at all, and if so by how much. Only then can policy options be calibrated. As things stand, there is little doubt that the IPCC will need to be reconstituted with a limited mandate. This mess needs investigation and questions need to be answered as to why absurd claims were taken as gospel truth. The future of everything we know as \"normal' depends on this. The real danger is that the general public is now weary of the whole thing, a little tired of the debate, and may not really care for the truth, convenient or otherwise."
## [4075] "A paper for the scientific journal Climate Dynamics co-authored by B.N. Goswami, recently retired director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, shows why the models relied upon by the U.N. climate panel?s recent assessments predict monsoons inaccurately."
## [4076] "Unlike last year, this year well be hearing next to nothing about Arctic sea ice in the media. In fact the most recent NOAA report about the Arctic was about 2012! Thats how desperate they are."
## [4077] "Taking the aerosol or volcanic emanation, it doesnt matter which as cooling factor, means that CO2 forcing was overestimated during the post 1975, pre-98 period, and overestimated during the post-98 period. The difference in model vs actual radiative forcing is equal to the reduced reflectivity of the atmosphere of pre-98 and increased reflectivity of post-98."
## [4078] "This group naturally includes the United Nations and all of its subsidiaries, the EU, and left wing politicians and media everywhere. At a news conference in Brussels recently, Christiana Figueres, executive secretary of U.N.s Framework Convention on Climate Change, admitted that the goal of environmental activists is not to save the world from ecological calamity, but to change the economic development model i.e. destroy what is left of free enterprise and private property."
## [4079] "That sort of distance is much larger than the size of a typical piece of cloud. As a consequence, simulation of clouds requires a fair amount of inspired guesswork as to what might be a suitable average of whatever is going on between the grid-points of the model. Even if experimental observations suggest that the models get the averages roughly right for a short-term forecast, there is no guarantee they will get them right for atmospheric conditions several decades into the future. Among other problems, small errors in the numerical modelling of complex processes have a nasty habit of accumulating with time."
## [4080] "We have on occasion, criticised our fellow sceptics. Our arguments are that environmentalism isnt a new form of Left-wing ideology, and that the climate debate wont be settled by science, because environmentalism is a political phenomenon. Were not particularly interested in challenging sceptics arguments, because they dont have any influence over the political agenda. Climate scepticism is inconsequential in this respect. Environmentalism, on the other hand, is deeply political. It asks for the reorganisation of the world. We also argue that dividing the debate into sceptics/deniers and scientists is really very unhelpful, and it lumps people together who really dont share much. Would you really lump Franny Armstrong, or, for that matter, the likes of George Monbiot, in with respected climate scientists, for instance?"
## [4081] "Doiron was quite harsh on the logic used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and on the NCA. In essence, the IPCC states that the cause of recent warming must be CO2, because its unvalidated computer models cannot account for the observed warming unless it assumes strong amplifying anthropogenic warming feedback relations in the models. Doiron bluntly states this is not proof in the school of hard knocks."
## [4082] "Whatever the weather is, they will rationalize it as being caused by global warming. The incredibly low (non-existent) standards of climate science make this possible."
## [4083] "The bulk of the Cisneros article relies on computergenerated climate and economic predictions. A good scare story might benefit insurers by justifying higher insurance premiums. However, the track-record for long term climate change computer modeling is a failure."
## [4084] "Our next paper will do a direct apples-to-apples comparison between the satellite-based feedbacks and the IPCC model-diagnosed feedbacks from year-to-year climate variability. Preliminary indications are that the satellite results are outside the envelope of all the IPCC models."
## [4085] "Noted physicist Freeman Dyson has ruffled feathers in recent years by coming out as a skeptic about catastrophic climate change. Given his reputation, even the NYT magazine had to give him a reasonable hearing on his views."
## [4086] "The basic physics tells us that greenhouse gases have some warming effect. How material, how lasting, how much offset or accentuated by natural influences is unknown at this stage of scientific understanding the temperature record certainly suggests no immediate cause for alarm."
## [4087] "Read here . The infamous Climategate (and other 'Gate') scientists and government agencies, which have been exposed as scientific charlatans and false prophets of climate doom, have devised a coordinated, PR propaganda campaign that puts a public face on their continuing denial of the exposed scientific malfeasance associated with global warming science. This public exposure of malfeasance has resulted, for climate scientists, climate agencies and global warming activists, an immense credibility loss, and hasseverelydamaged the reputation of the overall science community. Here is how a relatively small group of climate scientists and their facilitators (i.e., IPCC, Al Gore, George Soros, etc.) managed to accomplish this almostimpossible to doachievement: 1. Willfullysensationalized global warming hypothetical, catastrophic scenarios."
## [4088] "The take-home message of the findings of Landes and Zimmer is well described in the closing sentence of the abstract of their research report: \"Further experiments exploring the impacts of warming and acidification on key ecological interactions are needed instead of basing predictions of ecosystem change solely on species-specific responses to environmental change .\" Nature is complex; and our studies of it must be directed to gaining a better understanding of that species-interactive complexity, along with its implications for potential future global change. Reviewed 29 August 2012"
## [4089] "1) Climate research. The US government spends $2.5 billion per year on research that focuses on carbon dioxide, ignores powerful natural forces that have always driven climate change, and generates numerous reports and press releases warning of record high temperatures, melting icecaps, rising seas, stronger storms, more droughts and other \"unprecedented\" crises. The claims are erroneous and deceitful."
## [4090] "What do the 42 record temperatures for Kansas tell us when we look at them more closely? There are 20 official weather stations in Kansas of which 19 appear to be at airports. Record temperatures, however, have only been set at 8 of these . All of these 8 stations are airport based . Two of these are in Topeka and so are arguably double counted! These are listed below :-"
## [4091] "Now onto the BoM, which, as Jo Nova points out , has hit the jackpot with a trifecta of duff predictions, which are no doubt a result of models which are skewed towards the global warming narrative:"
## [4092] "The CO 2 emissions since 2000 to about 2.5 percent per year has increased, so that we would expect according to the Hansen paper a temperature rise, which should be stronger than in model A. Figure 1 shows the three Hansen scenarios and the real measured global temperature curve are shown. The protruding beyond Scenario A arrow represents the temperature value that the Hansen team would have predicted on the basis of a CO 2 increase of 2.5%. Be increased according to the Hansen??s forecast, the temperature would have compared to the same level in the 1970s by 1.5 C. In truth, however, the temperature has increased by only 0.6 C."
## [4093] "The solar session was very informative to me. The comments and discussion were also interesting. Graeme Stephens argued that the solar forcing was one of the better understood parts of the record, with uncertainties of a several W/m2 at most. Whereas the uncertainties in the surface energy budget were on the order of 20 W m-2."
## [4094] "A blog post about alarmist Richard Somerville is here . Excerpt: In an email exchange, I asked Dr. Somerville what he thought was needed in order to spark the changes the letter seeks. He responded, I think a dramatic shocking surprising climate event that is unambiguously due to global warming may be the only thing that motivates people and governments. Maybe a big chunk of ice sheet destabilizing and producing a significant sudden sea level rise. Unfortunately, then it may be too late, because its essentially irreversible; you cant cool the world enough to make the ice re-form quickly. Somerville was a member of an alarmist team that lost an NPR debate on global warming last March."
## [4095] "He took a very select series of proxies, and essentially pasted them onto the 1083 of the 1209 total proxies."
## [4096] "he threat of environmental extremism in a vast new area provides the biggest reason to reject the treaty. The Kyoto Treaty was rejected as national policy for good reason. LOST is Kyoto with a court attached.??"
## [4097] "One major challenge is that real uncertainties often turn out to have been underestimated. In many applications, 20%45% of results are surprises, falling outside the previously assumed 98% confidence limits. A famous example is measurements of the speed of light, in which new and more precise mea- surements fell outside the estimated error bars of the older ones much more frequently than expected. This effect arises in predicting river floods and earthquake ground motion and may arise for the IPCC uncertainty estimates ."
## [4098] "Sure enough, the Climategate emailers, who effectively but invisibly control the UN's climate panel to a dangerous extent, pretended that Professor Reiter's nomination papers had not been received. He then threw all his toys out of the stroller, produced the recorded-delivery slips, and made it plain that he would name the four defalcating bureaucrats to whom his nomination papers had been delivered unless the climate panel changed its mind."
## [4099] "The population around the Laverton station has changed significantly since the station was first opened. ABS statistics indicate a population increase from 7853 in 1933 to over 132,000 in 2008. It is also clear from aerial photographs that there has been significant urban development around the station since its inception, with significant growth in residential development over the last three decades."
## [4100] "The IPCC ARs list levels of agreement in the literature on a constellation of issues. The IPCC does *NOT* issue a single statement that constitutes the consensus, per Cook et als attempt."
## [4101] "We conclude that at the global scale, this suite of climate models has failed. Treating them as mathematical hypotheses, which they are, means that it is the duty of scientists to reject their predictions in lieu of those with a lower climate sensitivity."
## [4102] "Equally important, the big computer models of global weather patterns have cut their projections of warming from about 5 degrees Celsius to less than 2 degrees Celsius."
## [4103] "Since it is apparently acceptable practice for Science magazine to accompany an article extolling the evils of anthropogenic climate change (and the need to take action) with an picture of a polar bear (or two) stranded on an ice floe (even though polar bears were not mentioned in the article), perhaps well accompany all of our articles with a photo of a thriving Trumpeter swan. After all, whats good the goose (or, er, swan)"
## [4104] "have less of a cooling effect than previously estimated, the climate models need to be re-worked. The models incorporate a high cooling effect to counter-balance their high warming effect for CO2.]"
## [4105] "If McKitrick et al shows that the IPCC global computer models cant model the present and therefore the future, Professor Demetrius Koutsoyiannis and his team show those models cant even model the past"
## [4106] "Today the door has been pushed back somewhat, with a new paper in Energy Economics by a multinational team of authors led by Zuzana Irsova of Charles University in Prague (there is a preprint here ). She and her colleagues have been looking into published estimates of the social cost of carbon and find good evidence of a strong publication bias. You can probably guess which direction the bias is in:"
## [4107] "This approach is a more robust and inclusive approach than by relying on the global models as the tool to use for planning. The costs of using the global models as the assessment tool should be redirected to these other assessment approaches given by #1 through #3."
## [4108] "Over the last three decades, five IPCC assessment reports, dozens of computer models, scores of conferences and thousands of papers focused almost entirely on human fossil fuel use and carbon dioxide/greenhouse gas emissions, as being responsible for dangerous global warming, climate change, climate disruption, and almost every extreme weather or climate event. Tens of billions of dollars have supported these efforts, while only a few million have been devoted to analyses of all factors natural and human that affect and drive planetary climate change."
## [4109] "To me, the most significant thing that the Climategate emails show is that the deck is stacked against the publication of research results that are critical of the established scientific consensus and that the skids are greased for papers that run in support. It is little wonder why the literature is as one-sided as it is on the issue. The folks who are responsible for establishing the consensus have also taken it upon themselves to be the protectors of it. Not a good situation for the advancement of science."
## [4110] "In 40 years the house at 48 Oceanside Drive has been rebuilt 9 times by National Flood Insurance . The Globe says thats sea level rise, even damage from the blizzard of 78. Sea level rise is the popular alarmist scare, but even the Globe ought to realize the term can be overused. Build on the seashore and you should expect storm damage every now and then."
## [4111] "The first and second email batches contained conversations among \"scientists\" who appear to have dishonored a once respectable discipline, documenting that their claims of a \"man-made global warming crisis\" look exactly like deliberate contrivances for academic career gain, research funding and positions of political power in \"the cause.\""
## [4112] "\"Anti-Lobbyist' Obama Administration Recruited Left-Wing Lobbyists to Sell Bogus \"Green Jobs'"
## [4113] "Dr. Robinson is well known for the Oregon Petition Project, which says \"there is no convincing scientific evidence\" that humans are causing \"catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere\" or disruption of its climate. It urges Congress to reject the Kyoto global warming agreement and has been signed by more than 32,000 Americans with university degrees in physical sciences (including yours truly and over 9,000 PhDs)."
## [4114] "The NIPCC also destroys the false IPCC claims that computer models prove recent global warming is due to human CO2 emissions, and can forecast future global temperatures, climates and events. In reality, the models greatly exaggerate climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide levels; assume all warming since the industrial revolution began are due to human carbon dioxide; input data contaminated by urban heat island effects; and rely on simplistic configurations of vital drivers of Earths climate system (or simply ignore them), such as solar variations, cosmic ray fluxes, winds, clouds, precipitation, volcanoes, ocean currents and recurrent phenomena like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (El Nino and La Nina)."
## [4115] "Will this create a groundswell of new support from American voters?: Obama's climate swindle wins coveted endorsement from Fidel Castro HAVANA Barack Obama's call for action on climate change and his admission that rich nations have a particular responsibility to lead has received strong praise from an unusual source U.S. nemesis Fidel Castro. The former Cuban leader on Wednesday called the American president's speech at the United Nations \"brave\" and said no other American head of state would have had the courage to make similar remarks."
## [4116] "Figure 3. HadCRUT4 GLB (black) versus CMIP5 ensemble average (red). Note the lengthy hiatus from the 1940s to 1980. Also note the divergence between models and observations in the 21st century."
## [4117] "The atmospheric humidity levels that NOAA researchers publish continue to trend lower than climate model predictions - however, the mythical runaway global warming that catastrophic global warming (CAGW) alarmists promulgate requires atmospheric humidity to increase"
## [4118] "In my last post I wrote about natural, non-scientific indicators for winter forecasting, which are often more accurate than models. The Telegraph piece is just another one to add to that list. So far I havent seen many signs that the coming winter will be warm, except that is for the worn out warnings propagated by the warmists and their goofymodels."
## [4119] "Many of the frightening scenarios about global warming come from large computer calculations, general circulation models, that try to mimic the behavior of the earths climate as more CO2 is added to the atmosphere. It is true that climate models use increasingly capable and increasingly expensive computers. But their predictions have not been very good. For example, none of them predicted the lack of warming that we have experienced during the past ten years. All the models assume the water feedback is positive, while satellite observations suggest that the feedback is zero or negative."
## [4120] "It began, The Heartland Institute, a conservative group funded by Exxon Mobil and Charles Koch Whoa! Mr. Chairman, we rise to question why the Center for American Progress would engage in an outright lie? Answer: Thats what progressives do because they are immune to the truth."
## [4121] "\"This is the latest example of EPA politics running roughshod over the scientific evidence,\" concluded Georgia."
## [4122] "Then there is the law of conservation of energy, which means that we can change the form of energy, but not destroy it. So one is left to wonder if theyve properly modeled the change from kinetic energy (heat) to potential energy (altitude) and the heat flows into evaporation and condensation. Perhaps we can give the climate modelers a practical demonstration"
## [4123] "The errors in the record exceed by a wide margin the purported rise in temperature of 0.7 C (about 1.2 F) during the twentieth century. Consequently, this record should not be cited as evidence of any trend in temperature that may have occurred across the U.S. during the past century. Since the U.S. record is thought to be the best in the world, it follows that the global database is likely similarly compromised and unreliable."
## [4124] "I agree that transparency is ???crucial?? to the IPCC process. As discussed elsewhere, IPCC has opposed transparency in favour of confidentiality, with the situation getting worse with the furtive adoption of the Jones-Stocker amendment. In addition, it would be easy enough to add back the reviewer name when the review comments were published. The present system is designed not for transparency, but to enable authors to decide how to respond, depending on who the reviewer was."
## [4125] "Global warming has recently become both a symbol and a prototype of the tension between the truth and propaganda. One politically correct truth has taken over and it is not easy to oppose it although a significant number of people, including top scientists, see the climate change issues, its reasons, and its impact very differently. They are scared by the arrogance of the advocates of the global warming hypothesis and the related conjecture that connects this warming with particular acts of Man. They are afraid of the consequences that it will have for all of us. The best environment for humans is the environment of freedom. It is the only right criterion to judge all environmentalist visions and all their categoric demands. The current debate about global warming is thus inherently a debate about the freedom."
## [4126] "Particularly for the past decade, climate models have been running too hot, predicting more warming than has been observed (refer to the figure on page 6 of my testimony http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/comparing-cmip5-observations/ ."
## [4127] "I doubt that Julia Slingo of the Met Office knows much about the Hockey Stick controversy based on actual personal knowledge of the issues. Nonetheless, she saw fit to weigh in on the controversy at the UK Parliamentary Committee hearings. A few days after the hearings, I emailed her asking her for citations/references for two highly questionable assertions that she made to the Parliamentary Committee. A couple of days ago, she replied. Instead of providing the requested citations/references, her reply ??? in all-too-familiar re-framing climate scientist style ??? failed to answer the question. Rathering than answering the question, she pontificated about irrelevant issues, pontifications that were themselves inaccurate."
## [4128] "Serious questions about the funding of ?policy-relevant? science should now be asked. The belief that the emission of greenhouse gases, especially from energy use, has been enshrined as ?fact? in international law since 1992. Scientific research was required to support this claim and hence its associated ?solutions? or responses. To the best of my knowledge, the CRU-hack story is not over yet and serious implications for climate ?alarmism? are still possible. Any enquiry should go beyond the people directly involved and include senior government figures responsible for funding and advocacy of a cause science was expected to serve."
## [4129] "The data manipulation that has been most seized upon by bloggers involves the choice of which sources of temperature data should be used to reflect climate trends after 1960."
## [4130] "???Charles the Moderator?? writes to inform us that there??s another multiproxy study published, with flat blade and a somewhat limp hockey stick combined with that ???unprecedented?? claim that has become almost a red flag for bad proxy studies when they are that certain. From the SI PDF file , it looks like it is another splicing study, where they have added CRU data to the paleo reconstruction using tree ring, ice core, and varve data."
## [4131] "In the words of Cesana and Chepfer: (1) \"low- and mid-level altitude clouds are underestimated by all the models (except in the Arctic),\" (2) \"high altitude cloud cover is overestimated by some models,\" (3) \"some models shift the altitude of the clouds along the ITCZ by 2 km (higher or lower) compared to observations,\" (4) \"the models hardly reproduce the cloud free subsidence branch of the Hadley cells,\" (5) \"the high-level cloud cover is often too large,\" (6) \"in the tropics, the low-level cloud cover (29% in CALIPSO-GOCCP) is underestimated by all models in subsidence regions (16% to 25%)\" and (7) \"the pronounced seasonal cycle observed in low-level Arctic clouds is hardly simulated by some models.\""
## [4132] "A group of green activists is proposing to take more direct action against those of us who disagree with them."
## [4133] "If it?s a drought, or a long spell of hot and dry weather, they think we must be doing something to nudge up the Earth?s thermostat. If it?s a nasty hurricane or a notably destructive line of tornados, it?s our fault for driving SUVs. If riverside communities get flooded, that?s also the result of global warming. And if we get an unusually harsh and lengthy winter, yes, that, too, is proof that the Earth is getting warmer."
## [4134] "Nigel Lawson has responded to Paul Nurse's wild accusations of cherrypicking , accusing the Royal Society president of lying:"
## [4135] "The details of the goal include some highly questionable assertions. From 1880 to 2012, average global temperature increased by 0.85C. As pointed out by the Socit de Calcul Mathmatique, we do not have the ability to calculate average global surface temperatures today, much less in 1880."
## [4136] "The climate alarmists may offer lots of models and data but none of them ever correctly predicts the behavior of the climate for longer periods of time than two months. On the other hand, particle physicists use theories that perfectly match the observations. The experimenters are producing hundreds of diverse papers and each of them confirms nontrivial quantitative predictions made by the theories in particle physics. Let me emphasize that there are two ways to obtain each of these results ??? from theory or from the experiment ??? and they just match. Suggestions that the situations in particle physics and climate science are analogous are totally preposterous."
## [4137] "The global warming movement is reeling from serial revelations of scientific incompetence, outright fraud, bullying and rogue idealogues masquerading as scientists, but Al Gore has addressed none of these inconvenient truths beyond a glib denial that Climategate was a storm in a teacup."
## [4138] "Selling your soul for a narrative: understanding the Gleick fraud"
## [4139] "As Johnston demonstrates from the scientific literature, the complex and chaotic processes underlying these mechanisms, especially as they relate to cloud formation and precipitation, constitute anything but straightforward physics. The issue of feedbacks and climate sensitivity is probably the greatest question facing climate science. But policymakers are left blissfully ignorant of these controversies."
## [4140] "That is why the current hypothesis is bonkers, without actual temperature records for the past, we have no real idea what was happening in such short periods of a few decades a la the period the warmists are currently relying on."
## [4141] "Curry discusses major issues regarding the treatment of uncertainty, including that the often used Bayesian statistical methods, which have difficulty in dealing with true uncertainty, are subjective, and may lead to biased results."
## [4142] "2. While laboratory values for Henrys coefficients require approximating thermodynamic equilibrium, Henrys Law does not predict thermodynamic equilibrium, and its coefficients must therefore be used advisedly. Neither climate, the ocean, the surface layer, nor Earths primary heat source, the Sun, is ever in thermodynamic equilibrium. IPCC and Salby refer to equilibrium, which is false if they mean thermodynamic equilibrium, and otherwise they supply no definition for their peculiar meaning of equilibrium."
## [4143] "Attempts to resolve the arguments are plagued with problems, a lot of which are inherently insoluble. There are many aspects of the behaviour of the natural climate system and of human society that are unpredictable in principle, let alone in practice. But perhaps the biggest of the underlying problems, and it is common to both arguments since it inevitably exists when there is large unpredictability and uncertainty, is the presence of strong forces encouraging public overstatement and a belief in worst-case scenarios."
## [4144] "All this comes with the caveat that inasmuch as most experts accept that seas were rising by 3mm a year in the 1990?? s, the raw satellite data showed next to nothing until it was adjusted. Hence the rate changes discussed in this paper could be an artefact of those adjustments. Sea levels might not have slowed their rate of rise, it may be that it was not rising very quickly in the first place, and is still not rising very fast. Either way, it doesn??t support the theory that pumping out CO2 makes much difference."
## [4145] "CEI's FOIA request details how the UN informed participants that it was motivated by embarrassing releases of earlier discussions (\"ClimateGate\" key among them) and, to circumvent the problem that national government transparency laws posed, the group itself."
## [4146] "2) The global hydrological cycle is not taken correctly into account in the models (too small)."
## [4147] "The discrepancy with the other data sources is larger than Hansen??s claimed 0.08 record. Is it a record temperature, or is it good old fashioned bad data?"
## [4148] "This new religion does not yet have any martyrs (although maybe Professor Phil Jones at the University of East Anglia comes close), but it has plenty of evangelists foremost amongst them being former Vice-President of the U.S.A. Al Gore and His Royal Highness Prince Charles of Great Britain."
## [4149] "NASA has massively and repeatedly altered their own published data, to cool the past and warm the present. The animation below show their published 1981 surface temperatures in black, and subsequent 1999 and 2014 versions in red. This is consistent with an increase in propaganda, but not consistent withan increase in temperature."
## [4150] "Fifteen-year-long hiatus periods are common in both historical records and in computer models, the technical summary says. But scientists were caught out in one computer model, 111 of 114 estimates over-stated recent temperature rises."
## [4151] "Citing the potential for financial harm, the University of East Anglia last week denied a Freedom of Information request by Hockey Stick debunker Stephen McIntyre for the controversial Yamal temperature data. This is the third time he has been rebuffed by the University, which was scandalized by last years Climategate controversy over, among other things, inappropriate avoidance of FOI requests."
## [4152] "9. Climate modelers discovered that the Earth is not warming nearly as fast as their models predicted. A multi-billion dollar effort is now underway to make the climate system warm even faster."
## [4153] "John Christie pointed out that the models with the highest climate sensitivity are also the ones which are the worst at predicting future temperatures."
## [4154] "Bear in mind, if the models correctly simulate the trend in the earth??s GMST, we??d expect to find 5% of the simulated trends inconsistent at p=5%. In contrast, using the test applied in section 5.1.1 of Santer17 we find roughly 1/3rd of all 38 model runs result in trends that are inconsistent with the observed trend to p=5%. If we screen out the runs that use unrealistic volcanic forcings, the inconsistency between models and observations worsens. In contrast, results improve if we include the cases that fail to include the forcings due to volcanic activity. However, even for the cases that with physically unrealistic forcings, 18% of the individual cases fail at p=5%."
## [4155] "We find that the proxies do not predict temperature significantly better than random series generated independently of temperature. Furthermore, various model specifications that perform similarly at predicting temperature produce extremely different historical backcasts. Finally, the proxies seem unable to forecast the high levels of and sharp run-up in temperature in the 1990s either in-sample or from contiguous holdout blocks, thus casting doubt on their ability to predict such phenomena if in fact they occurred several hundred years ago."
## [4156] "The strong effect of cloud processes on climate model sensitivities to greenhouse gases was emphasized further through a now-classic set of General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments, carried out by Senior and Mitchell (1993). They produced global average surface temperature changes (due to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration) ranging from 1.9C to 5.4C, simply by altering the way that cloud radiative properties were treated in the model. It is somewhat unsettling that the results of a complex climate model can be so drastically altered by substituting one reasonable cloud parameterization for another, thereby approximately replicating the overall intermodel range of sensitivities."
## [4157] "I??ve commented before on the lack of independence between authors in the supposedly \"independent\" multiproxy studies: Mann et al , Jones et al , Mann and Jones , Crowley and Lowery , Briffa et al . I??ve mentioned in passing that the proxies themselves are not independent, but not provided lists to show the extent of overlap. I??ve provided this information below for a few of the Hockey Team Studies. MORE"
## [4158] "All the climate models consistently predict a hot-spot in the upper troposphere which is just as consistently missing in real-world observations. This shows the lack of skill of the models and allows us to dismiss them as reliable indicators of future climate."
## [4159] "THE worlds peak scientific body on climate change will almost inevitably make an increase in its predictions of sea-level rises due to global warming in its next landmark report in 2014, the vice-chair of the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says."
## [4160] "So glacier retreat is a symptom of Global Warming, unless the glacier is advancing, then THAT is a symptom of Global Warming."
## [4161] "Second, because of the models are biased toward the Northern Hemisphere in an attempt to recreate the higher warming rates there, the climate models almost triple the observed warming rate of the surfaces of the Southern Hemisphere oceans. See Figure 3."
## [4162] "So, this explains why the People's Climate March was dominated by crazies and political leftists. The mainstream media mostly avoided coverage of the event. Maybe they realized how embarrassing the march would be for the more rational elements of the environmental movement."
## [4163] "However, the science is not done because we do not have reliable or regional predictions of climate."
## [4164] "The only way Ruiz-Barradas et al could have been clearer would have been to state point blank that climate climate models will only have value if and when they can ever simulate the decadal and multidecadal characteristics of natural ocean processes. Ruiz-Barradas et al (2013) then describe the many problems with climate model simulations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. And the paper ends with (my boldface):"
## [4165] "(3) \" There is ... little evidence from CMIP5 that our ability to constrain the large-scale climate feedbacks has improved significantly .\""
## [4166] "UCS makes this claim based on the same PNAS study cited above. But the study's conclusions are based on the output of a climate model that does no better than a table of random numbers in predicting measured U.S. temperatures during the 20th Century. Furthermore, the model results don't appear to jibe with other key data. For example, data for the last hundred years show no correlation between average winter temperatures in California and subsequent Sierra Nevada water runoff during the spring. There's also no correlation between average temperatures and average winter precipitation in California. And despite rising temperatures during the late 20th Century, the last decade has had the wettest California winters of any decade during the last 50 years, and the 3rd wettest of the last 100 years."
## [4167] "The Climategate emails from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia in England have revealed how the normal conventions of the peer-review process appear to have been compromised by a Team of global warming scientists, with the willing cooperation of the editor of the International Journal of Climatology, Glenn McGregor."
## [4168] "Because the possible range of sensitivities has been virtually the same, it means that the predictions made in the first IPCC report in 1990 should still be valid. That is, according to the writers of all the IPCC reports, the temperature today should be within the range of predictions made 22 years ago. But they are not!"
## [4169] "Even if we consider the worst case scenario, there is no economic case for reducing CO2 output. The basis of the economic analysis appears flawed and seems sensible to wait till there is evidence of specific problem and deal with these, rather than basing policy on unsupported speculation about what may happen."
## [4170] "Social psychologist Jose Duarte has a series of blog posts that document the ludicrousness of the selection and categorization of papers by Cook et al., including citation of specific articles that they categorized as supporting the climate change consensus:"
## [4171] "\" So instead of identifying why there has been less global warming over the past 10-15 years than climate models have projected, Solomon et al. have found that climate models have missed the mark even furtherfor had they properly included the effect of volcanoes and background stratospheric aerosols, they would have projected even a greater rate of warming than they already do. And since observations show that there has been relatively little, if any, warming over this same time period, the results from Solomon et al. means that climate models are doing worse than even the model lovers have realized.\""
## [4172] "According to the computer simulations, the temperature of the earth should have increased by at least 1 C since the beginning of the century because of increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases. In fact, the temperature actually increased by only 0.5 C, and, as noted above, much of that increase occurred prior to 1940, before some 80% of the CO2 had entered the atmosphere. Only a few tenths of a degree at most could have been caused by increases in atmospheric CO2. That is 3-4 times less than the computer models predicted. If the predictions exaggerated the warming to date by a factor of 3-4, they are unreliable for projecting the future climate change."
## [4173] "The sharp rise in UK temperatures, which effectively began in the 1980s, is widely known about, but, (and I may be wrong here), has never been satisfactorily explained. Indeed, I am not sure anybody from the Met Office, Hadley Centre, etc has ever seriously attempted to explain it."
## [4174] "In 2000, Britains Met Office said cold winters would be a thing of the past, and children just arent going to know what snow is. The 2010 and 2012 winters were the coldest and snowiest in centuries. In 2013, Met Office scholars said the coming winter would be extremely dry; the forecast left towns, families and government agencies totally unprepared for the immense rains and floods that followed."
## [4175] "Back to the facts. And when comparing the left axis of both charts, it becomes abundantly clear that all those small changes done on a monthly basis by NOAA starts accumulating to become ever larger changes over a few years. Obviously, Obamas team believes in man-made warming, especially when they simply accomplish it on their PCs."
## [4176] "By Ian Plimer ??? ???Read this book. Read it carefully. Then read it again. Open your mind to theories that challenge orthodoxy, or you become nothing more than a shrill evangelist, jumping up and down on the spot, yelling ???LA LA LA LA LA!?? whilst holding a finger firmly in each ear.?? -Reader??s review"
## [4177] "There are good reasons to doubt that the EPA understands how a modern power system works. Such are the fruits of regulatory zealotry and the haste driven by the prospect that the next administration might place a greater emphasis on economic growth."
## [4178] "After all, much of the abuse that is hurled across the climate divide comes from those who like to believe that it is they who are dealing in a currency of proper science bias and ideology is what the opposition does. Hence the vitriol aimed at Bjrn Lomborg over the years."
## [4179] "In closing, Lauer and Hamilton indicate there is \"only very modest improvement in the simulated cloud climatology in CMIP5 compared with CMIP3,\" and they sadly state that even this slightest of improvements \"is mainly a result of careful model tuning rather than an accurate fundamental representation of cloud processes in the models.\""
## [4180] "NCDC accomplishes theirfeat of destroying the US temperature record, through a phenomenal hockey stick of data tampering- which cools the past by almost two degrees relative to the current year."
## [4181] "Needless to say, prominent alarmist scientists and the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have not taken this view. They argue instead that the planet was cooler during both Roman times and the Medieval warm period."
## [4182] "IPCC Obsession With Temperature Distorts Climate Change Science"
## [4183] "Eight hundredths of a degree? These people are hyperventilating over eight hundredths of a degree? I spent eighteen buck to read their !@#$%^ paper for eight hundredths of a degree? That trivial change in forcing is supposed to have ??? played a role in the Younger Dryas cooling event?? ? ?? I weep for the death of science."
## [4184] "The science that will be put forward will be as unremittingly bogus as we have been hearing and reading since the late 1980s when the global warming hoax was launched."
## [4185] "IPCC wanted to prove human CO2 was causing global warming as part of their belief that industrialized populations would exhaust all resources and had to be shut down. Their only objective was to show human production was steadily, inexorably increasing. Their calculations predetermine that, because human CO2 production is directly linked to population increase. A population increase guarantees a CO2 increase. It is another of their circular arguments that has no basis in science."
## [4186] "Now correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't it the aerosols that were supposed to have prevented warming taking off at the predicted rates in the past? And now their influence is slight?"
## [4187] "Chaos artificial reservoir correction to sea level . This correction to Church and Whites sea level dataleads t0a (supposed)larger sea level rise during the 20th century. But this correction has some critical flaws."
## [4188] "Barking madness in the New York Times: Global warming blamed for coldest winter in China in 30 years and many other extreme cold events; story illustrated with a photo of snow on the palm trees of Jerusalem"
## [4189] "These historic changes in land level-dramatic or gradual- will have been taken into account in academic studies (although there is not unanimity over the rate of change). However all these factors demonstrate that accurate sea level reconstruction is problematic."
## [4190] "Once again, we have another example of climate-alarmist (IPCC) contentions widely missing the mark when it comes to predicting which temperature extreme - hot or cold - produces both more frequent and more intense precipitation events, as well as the flooding that accompanies them."
## [4191] "So Global Warming causes droughts up until a week ago. No doubt they are working on a paper that proves that Global Warming can cause a flood now and then. A peer reviewed article in Nature will appear soon. Data freely available on request except of course to anyone who has dealings with CA. Thats the way science is done after all."
## [4192] "US climate expert Professor Judith Curry said last night: In fact, the uncertainty is getting bigger. Its now clear the models are way too sensitive to carbon dioxide. I cannot see any basis for the IPCC increasing its confidence level."
## [4193] "NASA is constantly cooling the past and warming the present in order to make it appear that Hansens theories arent the miserable failure which they actually are."
## [4194] "It is also important to understand that the equilibrium average surface temperature calculated by radiative forcing is not a measurable climate variable. It has no existence outside of the equilibrium Earth that resides only in the universe of computerized climate fiction found inside these radiative forcing models. ."
## [4195] "???Multivariate regression methods are insensitive to the sign of predictors??. Mann et al seem to be saying their methods are invariant to the data??s orientation ??? perhaps to linear translation? ??? anyway it means the data can??t be upside-down. Now if the mathematical interpretation placed on the data by their methods conflict with physical information from other sources, it does raise questions. Presumably the next sentences in Mann et al??s reply l refer to this, I can??t see anything in Kaufman et al that illuminates this and it would seem to require detailed knowledge of the field to judge the importance of these issues. And as you said, we (you, me, Steve McIntyre,?? ) are not professionally qualified to engage in the substance of such a debate."
## [4196] "2. Some alternate techniques that determine CO 2 concentration over time contradict the slow changing ice record, but this may in fact be due to 1). This could mean present levels are not quite so extremely high or unusually fast changing as thought."
## [4197] "The Committee leadership already had a course of action in mind even when we were appointed."
## [4198] "All methods strongly underestimates the amplitude of low-frequency variability and trends. This means that it is almost impossible to conclude from reconstruction studies that the present period is warmer than any period in the reconstructed period."
## [4199] "This makes it very clear that the low CO2 values in the Antarctic ice cores during the Holocenecould easily be the result of diffusion and do not constitute valid evidence of a stable pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 level of ~275 ppmv."
## [4200] "It is about 120 series that would pass if you accept Manns incredibly generous autocorrelation assumptions. Far, far, higher if you do not. One of the most difficult scams of the paper is the determination of the correct autocorrelations to use for this particular correlation value. Jim apparently accepts it with a hand wave and zero consideration but climate science isnt known for statistical prowess. It becomes even more fuzzy when you realize that the autocorrelations of individual series are so widely different that several wont even converge with Rs arima fit function."
## [4201] "To conclude: the less warming, the more confident the IPCC about its claims to policy-makers."
## [4202] "There is a remarkable lack of understanding with respect to the sensitivity of the minimum temperature overnight to relatively slight changes in surface conditions. Thispost illustrates one example of this sensitivity. The implication ofsuch influences is that the use of the minimum temperature as part of the construction of the global average surface temperature trend is seriously flawed, as we discussed in our paper"
## [4203] "Particular concerns have been raised about ?? the high latitude Eurasian trees (which have and anomalously low growth anomaly in the late 20th century ??? Tornetraesk, Fennoscandia, Yamal, Northern Urals in Table 1)"
## [4204] "In a statement Friday, IPCC officials confirmed the authenticity of a leaked draft of the forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report on climate. Skeptics seized upon a chart within the document that compares past IPCC predictions with actual temperature readings. The scientific models of 1990s First Assessment Report forecast temperatures would rise fast, reaching alarming levels by 2010. The mercury refused to cooperate with the warming hypothesis that year. In 2012, temperatures also were frostier than the generous assumptions in each of the groups four previous reports."
## [4205] "All this comes on top of last years revelation of the Climategate e-mails, which revealed equally shoddy practices (and efforts to suppress criticism) by scientists at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia perhaps the single most important source of data that supposedly proved the most alarming claims of global warming."
## [4206] "We again see that pull to the middle effect. Perhaps simply because more thermometers can be created where there has been a thermometer longer? If so, that would bring into the present all that bias from the early years when there were not very many thermometers. As we saw in earlier pages, it takes time for the thermometer count for a location to rise high enough and to stabilize and start giving valid averages for an area. To the extent this stretch and reach infill process drags the past into more of the data set, and into the future, it will be dragging historical bias into the present more representative data."
## [4207] "A moments digging on Google shows that said Ms Frew rose to national prominence in Australia on the Sydney Morning Herald as environment correspondent. And that was primarily because her views are those of a climate change/greenie fanatic."
## [4208] "Until and unless major oscillations in the Earth System (El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) etc.) can be predicted to the extent that they are predictable, regional climate is not a well defined problem. It may never be. If that is the case then we should say so. It is not just the forecast but the confidence and uncertainty that are just as much a key."
## [4209] "Climate Science Uncertainties Still Cloud Kyoto"
## [4210] "In his presentation to the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Hans von Storch outlines a number of issues with the IPCC and suggests possible solutions. I thought these were pretty interesting, particularly the bit where he discusses dealing with dissent - I've added emphasis to the \"ouch\" bit."
## [4211] "the unambiguous failure of the atmosphere to warm anything like as fast as predicted by the vast majority of climate models over the past 35 years\""
## [4212] "Therefore, because the factors were not correctly considered in the past, we can immediately conclude that the scary projections made by the IPCC for the 21st century were falsely calculated and are thus likely grotesquely exaggerated."
## [4213] "Yet the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5 th Assessment Report cannot simulate the additional warming of the North Atlantic, as shown in Figure 27. As a result, they have to more than double the warming rate for the rest of the global oceans. See Figure 28."
## [4214] "Were certainly not the only ones criticising the emphasis on catastrophe in science reporting. The Tyndall Centres Mike Hulme an eminent and high-profile climate scientist, and certainly no denier (although we wonder how long it will be before he is labelled as such) has been saying it loudly for a year or two. In his new book, he also laments how political ideologies, beliefs and arguments hide behind science in climate debates. This is one reason we are so surprised that this all comes as such a surprise to you."
## [4215] "In a paper Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation , Shakun et al .( Nature 2012) contend that rising temperature at the end of the last Pleistocene glaciation were preceded by increasing atmospheric CO2. In his usual masterful fashion, Willis Eschenbach has dug deeply into the data used in the paper and shredded the conclusions in it (see http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/06/a-reply-shakun-et-al-dr-munchausen-explains-science-by-proxy/"
## [4216] "There is a clear pattern of repeated death threats and hate speech from very high profile people attacking sceptics. Plus individuals have received hate mail just for being sceptics. In January 2013 David Bellamy revealed that the:"
## [4217] "But that is not enough to generate the climate crisis the IPCCs founding document orders it to demonstrate: so the IPCC assumes the existence of several temperature feedbacks additional forcings f n demonimated in Watts per square meter per Kelvin of the direct warming that triggered them. The IPCC also imagines that these feedbacks are so strongly net-positive that they very nearly triple the direct warming we cause by adding CO2 to the atmosphere."
## [4218] "To sum up, the IPCCs anthropogenically-forced CMIP5 climate models can broadly explain observed air temperature trends on land but fall woefully short of explaining observed SST trends in the oceans, where over 99% of the heat in the atmosphere and oceans is stored. Others may disagree, but I think this invalidates the models. Again."
## [4219] "We live on an ocean-covered planet, yet somehow the hows, the whens, the wheres, and the extents of the warming (and cooling) of the surfaces of our oceans seem to have eluded climate modelers. For the past few years, we have been presenting how poorly the climate models (used by the IPCC) simulate sea surface temperatureslong-term comparisons (example here ) and for the satellite-era. But in those cases, we presented modeled and observed sea surface temperature anomalies . In this post, we presented satellite-era sea surface temperatures, not anomalies, and this has pointed to other climate model failings, which further suggest that simulations of basic ocean circulation processes in the models are flawed."
## [4220] "Even if you have no scientific background whatsoever this is clearly wrong. Any observed increase in temperature at these stations must surely be due to the local, man-made heat sources rather than any purported change in the climate. It is extraordinary that these stations have found their way into the IPCC's temperature records without being noticed corrected."
## [4221] "U.S. Climate Scientists \"Adjusting\" Surface Temps To Make Global Warming Theory \"Work\" Are Not Alone"
## [4222] "The assumption that temperature feedbacks would double or triple direct man-made greenhouse warming is the largest error made by the complex climate models. Feedbacks may well reduce warming, not amplify it."
## [4223] "For any objective reader and citizen of the world, this sort of bullying ought to inform everyone that science and its practice are now no longer free and willing. In fact, we are constantly being terrorized and threatened by the research funding gravy trains and large resources needed for science to progress and prosper. This is a scientific dark age we are living in because no more scientists of Professor Rossiters caliber are speaking out and telling the whole truth on any matters scientific. The idea of atmospheric CO2 being the one sure control knob for climate and future disasters is profoundly wrong not only on scientific grounds but also on the moral and ethical grounds that Professor Rossiters op-ed in WSJ has exemplified. Thank God that the United Nations and various scientific institutions will not be able to silence us because we will never let them do that ."
## [4224] "The hypothesis of man-made global warming has existed since the 1880s. It was an obscure scientific hypothesis that burning fossil fuels would increase CO2in the air to enhance the greenhouse effect and thus cause global warming. Before the 1980s this hypothesis was usually regarded as a curiosity because the nineteenth century calculations indicated that mean global temperature should have risen more than 1C by 1940, and it had not. Then, in 1979, Mrs Margaret Thatcher (now Lady Thatcher) became Prime Minister of the UK, and she elevated the hypothesis to the status of a major international policy issue."
## [4225] "There are no computer models that can be created to prove GW beyond any doubt. The earth, the atmosphere, the ocean, other planets, etc. are far too complicated for any scientist to create a computer model that takes in all aspects of our universe."
## [4226] "The comparison in Figure 3 shows that observations particularly since 2005 are on the low end of the envelope that contains 90% of the climate model simulations. Extrapolation of the current flat trend would place the observations outside of the 90% envelope within a few years. While the observations remain within the substantial range of the climate model simulations, the trend in the model simulations is substantially larger than the observed trend over the past 15 years."
## [4227] "The accelerated warming interpretation by the IPCC shown in Figure 1 was based on the comparison of the global warming rate of the recent warming period with the global warming rates of longer periods that consist of this warming period and previous cooling-followed-by-warming periods. As the global warming rate for the current warming period is necessarily always greater than those of all the other longer periods with greater denominators, the IPCC was comparing oranges to apples."
## [4228] "In 2006 less CO2 was added to the atmosphere than in 1983. In 1980 more CO2 was added to the atmosphere than in 2004. Why is that? Im sure that the worlds human population has increased its output of CO2 significantly since the 1980s. Where did it go? Why does the growth rate change from year to year? Biology? Algae in the sea? I dont know, just asking. And why does nobody else ask this?"
## [4229] "The recent paper of Allen et al. does a careful job of estimating errors in forward projections of global temperatures from earlier calculations on global circulation models of the atmosphere. Given the simple question are the models doing a good job or not the increasing level of sophistication needed to defend them is of concern. For many of us, a temperature stasis of 17 years is enough to suggest that the models are not as robust as some of their advocates maintain."
## [4230] "The ClimateGate affair the publication of e-mails and documents hacked or leaked from one of the worlds leading climate research institutions is being intensely debated on the web. But what does it imply for climate science? Here, Mike Hulme and Jerome Ravetz say it shows that we need a more concerted effort to explain and engage the public in understanding the processes and practices of science and scientists."
## [4231] "Morano: \"Climate activists think we need more taxes & regulation to somehow stop bad weather...Mayor Bloomberg said we need to take immediate action to prevent bad weather. This has now reached the level of the Mayan Calendar and Nostradamus."
## [4232] "In looking at the unrealistic trends presented by the models, consider that climate models do not simulate the processes of El Nio and La Nia properly. See the discussion of Guilyardi et al (2009) here ."
## [4233] "Declaring that science is politics in climate change; climate science is politics, Union Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh on Wednesday urged Indian scientists to undertake more studies and publish them vigorously to prevent India and other developing countries from being led by our noses by Western (climate) scientists who have less of a scientific agenda and more of a political agenda . ??? Indian Express, 9 June 2011"
## [4234] "JC comments: Stevens and Bony make the important point that adding complexity to Earth Systems Models (e.g. carbon cycle, atmospheric chemistry, more complex land surface processes) doesnt help improve the fundamental deficiencies of climate models."
## [4235] "Plus then there??s the error problem. For example we saw this summer that Honolulu set new record highs, but they turned out to be in error . The kicker is that NOAA let the records stand anyway! The problem is that a number of climate stations are at airports. Watch this NWS employee say on record that these airport weather stations are ??? placed for aviation purposesnot necessarily for climate purposes."
## [4236] "An upward shift in global surface temperatures would definitely help the models for a few years, but, because the global surface temperatures warmed in a step, the hiatus period that followed would again cause a continued divergence between the models and the real world. See Figure 3 for a model-data comparison starting in 1979 and running through 2030."
## [4237] "The Warmist position is fixed because it was achieved by corruption of the science and the scientific method. Science advances through proposing a hypothesis. Scientists then function as skeptics and challenge the assumptions on which they are based. The hypothesis became fact through the design of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Its the pattern of science driven by environmentalism as a political agenda. Deliberate personal and professional attacks sidelined the few who tried to be scientific skeptics. These attacks were reinforced by mainstream media, who also accepted and promoted the hypothesis."
## [4238] "2). Any calibration of proxy data is impossible if the target is decadal (and longer) temperature variations. The first reason consists of the general nonstationarity climate, in particular during the period used for a calibration. This reason is discussed in the Band C paper. The second reason consists of more or less large inertia of all kinds of proxies even including the higher-resolution proxies like tree-rings, corals and others with formally annual lamination. The effective number of degrees of freedom for the instrumental time period is very small by this reason, and so any calibration is an illusion."
## [4239] "Climate alarmists continue to claim that global warming will lead to more extreme (both high- and low-volume) river flows, characteristic of more extreme drought and flood conditions. However, river flow records in southern South America, according to the authors, \"extend for only a few decades, hampering the detection of long-term, decadal to centennial-scale cycles and trends,\" which are needed in order to ascertain the degree of validity of climate-alarmist claims for that part of the world."
## [4240] "Junk Science: Al Gore's documentary on climate disaster has been ruled a work of fiction by a British judge. In legal terms, his global warming hysteria has been assuming facts not in evidence.The judge ruled that the film could be shown to British students, but only on the condition it be accompanied by new guidance notes for teachers to balance Gore's \"one-sided\" views. Judge Burton documented nine major errors in Gore's film (see chart above) and wrote that some of Gore's claims had arisen \"in the context of alarmism and exaggeration.\""
## [4241] "In a report with wide-reaching political implications, U.S. EPAs inspector general has found that the scientific assessment backing U.S. EPAs finding that greenhouse gases are dangerous did not go through sufficient peer review for a document of its importance. . ."
## [4242] "Easterbrook argued the climate has actually been cooling in recent years, and that carbon dioxide does not contribute to global warming. He said his climate numbers were different from those used by other scientists because, he argues, federal agencies NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tamper with the data and artificially inflate temperatures."
## [4243] "For the past six years, the Heartland Institute has sponsored International Climate Change Conferences, the last in Washington, D.C., June 30-July 1. Havent heard about them? Maybe thats because the mainstream media has gone out of its way to ignore them. The conferences, however, have contributed to the growing body of knowledge disputing global warming to the point where, even in the nations capitol, the topic has become little more than the slow revelation of the utter mendacity of the hoax and its perpetrators."
## [4244] "Recently we have all learned of the emails that emerged from the University of East Anglia, a scandal that has come to be known as Climategate. To me, it seems abundantly clear that the proponents of global warming have been cooking the science to produce the results they wanted. They've supressed data, colluded, stifled debate, threatened scientific journals that published opposing viewpoints and placed climate propaganda ahead of climate science. We're talking about such names as James Hansen, Kevin Trenbirth, Ben Santer, Phil Jones, Michael Mann, Tom Karl, Gavin Schmidt, Keith Briffa among others. These are not a small, isolated band of insignificant scientists, as our friends at the BBC, Washington Post, Guardian and other media sources would like to assert. These are literally the founding fathers of global warming."
## [4245] "The Goreacle will also be thrilled to learn that his global warming climate crisis ticks a lot of the requirements to be classified as a cult ."
## [4246] "In 2002, Esper et al. published in Science magazine a temperature record for the Northern Hemisphere over the past 1000 years that looked quite unlike the hockey stick. Both the Medieval Climate Optimum and the Little Ice Age were evident. In the March 23 edition of Eos, Esper and other colleagues examine why this should be so. According to the Greening Earth Society, Esper \"basically eliminates all the possibilities except the technique used to process tree-ring data sets the primary information relied on to construct early portions of the temperature reconstructions."
## [4247] "What can we conclude from all this? Obviously the models do not even come close to properly reproducing the reconstructed temperatures of the past. This brings us to a fork in the road, with each path leading to a completely different destination: 1) geologists would likely trust their temperatures and have doubts concerning the reliability of the climate model. Or 2) mathematicians and physicists think the reconstructions are wrong and their models correct. The latter is the view that the Lohmann troop is initially leaning to. We have to point out that Gerrit Lohmann studied mathematics and physics, and is not a geo-scientist. Lohmann et al prefer to conjure thoughts on whether the dynamics between ocean conditions and the organisms could have falsified the temperature reconstructions, and so they conclude:"
## [4248] "I had hoped, not very confidently, that the various Climategate inquiries would be severe. This would have been a first step towards restoring confidence in the scientific consensus. But no, the reports make things worse. At best they are mealy-mouthed apologies; at worst they are patently incompetent and even wilfully wrong. The climate-science establishment, of which these inquiries have chosen to make themselves a part, seems entirely incapable of understanding, let alone repairing, the harm it has done to its own cause."
## [4249] "The problems of assessing the costs and benefits of action under these circumstances are sometimes referred to as deep uncertainty whereby scientists do not know or cannot agree on key scientific models and the value of alternative outcomes. Analysts rely upon historical weather and climate data and climate models, but climate models cannot provide the equivalent of historical data for future projections. A major challenge is that future GHG emissions will be tied to demographic and socio-economic patterns that will vary across the planet and across time in complex ways."
## [4250] "Newsbusters discuss comments by former Newsweek editor Howard Fineman who says that the climate skeptics must be religious, so the climate wars represent a conflict between the \"nice atheist alarmists\" and \"evil religious skeptics\"."
## [4251] "Next, the increase in globally-averaged temperature for 2012 of about1 o F is quite small by comparison with the mid-20th century baseline. I was an official weather observer early in my atmospheric-science career (starting more than 35 years ago). I know from personal experience that temperature measurements, which were typically made once per hour, were made by \"eyeball averages\" based onthe meniscus levelin the thermometer. So, in practice, measurements were made within about + or -0.5 o F accuracy. Notably, a1 o F increase is small indeed, taking measurement limitations into account."
## [4252] "Fear of a serious factual discussion: Climate alarmists pressure BBC to censorship of the public climate debate"
## [4253] "This is amazing, because the IPCC was completely unaware of this phenomenon in 1990. Apparently the world was heating out of control and the climate was collapsing since the middle of the 19th century, but the IPCC completely missed it. They thought that the world warmed much faster coming out the LIA. How could the worlds top climate scientists have been so ignorant?"
## [4254] "The first graph below (click to enlarge) shows the 30 tree-ring time series with the best correlations to the instrumental temperature record. Each of these correlations has been matchedwith the correlationto the CO2 level. The first thing to jump out is that for 23 out of 30 cases, the CO2 correlation is better than the temperature correlation!"
## [4255] "To understand why there are such huge uncertainties in the computer simulations, consider that the additional energy added to the climate system by the doubling of atmospheric CO2 is about 4 watts per square meter (W/m2) a small amount of energy compared to the amount of the sun's radiation (342 W/m2) at the top of the atmosphere. But 4 W/m2 is also small compared to the uncertainties in the climate change calculations. For example, knowledge of the amount of energy flowing from equator to poles is uncertain by an amount equivalent to 25-30 W/m2. The amount of sunlight absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected by the surface is also uncertain by as much as 25 W/m2. Some computer models include adjustments to the energy flows of as much as 100 W/m2. Imprecise treatment of clouds may introduce another 25 W/m2 of uncertainty into the basic computations.19"
## [4256] "Recent examinations by analysts Paul Homewood, Tony Heller and others confirm that a wide variety of official temperature datasets have been excessively manipulated by climate \"scientists\" - to the point where policymakers can no longer be sure if climate records can be trusted."
## [4257] "At the other end of the globe, the models failed miserably. The models indicate that the surface of the Southern Ocean (Figure 22) should have warmed over the past 32+ years, but the sea surface temperatures there cooled in that time."
## [4258] "The IPCC and other warmists rely heavily on computer models for the dire predictions of what will happen to our planet unless we all stop exhaling. It??s a pity then that the models are likely to be full of bugs. How badly might errors like these affect results? How about by 400%?"
## [4259] "Another graph detailed the temperatures in America's corn belt since the year 1900. This one showed that climate models came nowhere close to the real temperatures and that more recent models were far and away hotter than the real temperature ever was."
## [4260] "This looks good at first blush, and the authors say that the GCM results (red) are ???consistent?? with the observations. However, closer examination reveals issues. What struck me immediately about their results is that the actual observations of both the shortwave and longwave anomalies show clear signs of overshoot. After being knocked down by the volcano, after 1994 they both come back higher than pre-eruption. This worked to quickly restore the pre-disturbance state."
## [4261] "And the researchers by their own admission can??t even fit GHG feedbacks into the Hadley cell migration equation successfully. It is just more evidence of uncertainty in the ???settled science?? of AGW."
## [4262] "My personal reaction as a scientist is to be very thankful that I am not involved in the IPCC. I already feel duped by the IPCC (Ive written about this previously), I am glad that I was not personally used by the IPCC."
## [4263] "Hansen's Teflon credibility wasn't even scratched after the August revelation that since 2000 he and his fellow scientists had been incorrectly crunching the data from about 1,200 ground weather stations that NASA uses to take the country's annual average temperature -- and which the unquestioning mainstream media used as \"proof\" the country has been getting hotter every year since 1998."
## [4264] "The only way Americans will be protected against the EPA's attack on our economy will be a Congress controlled by the Republican Party and a Republican President that will support the oversight that is needed and the reversal of its vast output of regulations. It will have to do this as well for NOAA, NASA, and other governmental departments and agencies that, until recently, spewed forth all manner of \"data\" supporting the global warming hoax."
## [4265] "The Supreme Court, which jealously guards against any hint of a religious symbol on public property lest it establish a religion, has gone a long way toward making the Earth Cult the official religion of the United States."
## [4266] "*Brace for Impacts, editorial (Nature, Vol. 508, April 3, 2014, p. 7) reports the release of IPCC WG-II report. Oddly, it doesnt mention the release of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), another sign of blatant bias, but oh well. The editorial repeats the highlights of the IPCC report without any critical thought, an unfortunate example of news release journalism common in the environment field. It ends with the obligatory call for more funding for researchers. The editors conflict of interest is so obvious it is blinding to everyone except the editors, and I suppose, and many of the researchers buy subscriptions to Nature."
## [4267] "Unfortunately for the models, during the last 17-year period, Figure 2, the rise in observed global sea surface temperature anomalies (0.04 deg C per decade) is only 26% of the rise projected by the models (0.155 deg per decade). Thats not too good when we consider the rise in Sea Surface Temperature is supposed to be forced by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gases and that the model mean is supposed to represent the forced component of the all of the models, without the noise caused by the internal variability inherent in the individual model ensemble members."
## [4268] "Regardless, what we have is evidence that models estimates of the variability of 8 year trends during periods with no volcanic eruptions is noticably higher than those seen on the real physical earth."
## [4269] "Using hemispherically- or zonally-resolved temperature data to estimate aerosol forcing fails to avoid contamination by the AMO when the analysis period is insufficiently long. Many AR4 era ECS and TCR studies used the 20th century as their analysis period. The1900s started with the AMO low and ended with the AMO high. Gillett et al (2012) found that, despite its uses of spatiotemporal patterns, their detection and attribution study??s estimate of warming attributable to GHG was biased ~40% high when based on 1900s data compared to with when the longer 1851-2010 period was used. ECS studies affected by this problem include Gregory et al (2002), Frame et al (2005) and Allen et al (2009).The Stott and Forest (2007) TCR estimate is also affected."
## [4270] "And what does the President mean by the overwhelming judgment of science anyway?Mr. Obama implies that recent fires, drought, and storms would not have occurred but for anthropogenic climate change. That is ideology talking, not science."
## [4271] "Global warming has evaporated the glacier ;-) so thousands of tons of ash are flying above Europe. Yes, of course: volcano eruptions are caused by climate change , much like everything else ."
## [4272] "Earlier this year she was one of 300 people chosen to take part in a training session to enable her to present environmental campaigner and former US vice-president Al Gores slideshow on the climate crisis ."
## [4273] "But seriously, MNNs photos supposedly depicting melting glaciers on the Matterhorn proves nothing in their effort to debunk Glaciergate theyve only proven that any schmuck can cherry-pick photos."
## [4274] "Which is interesting since I think we can agree since I joined this little forecasting battle the past 3 years, I have hit the cold over in Europe. Part of the reason is the model and computer has a warm bias since the PDO ( Pacific Decadol Oscillation flipped to cool). Now I wonder why that would be?"
## [4275] "\"Supporters of the changes, including board members Wade Linger and Tom Campbell, argued that \"science is never settled' and that debate will lead students into a deeper understanding of the issue,\" the paper added."
## [4276] "Tom Karl the director of the national climatic data center of the US NOAA, who compiled another global temperature record who's errors and exaggerations of recent warming have caused concern."
## [4277] "The waves of the tsunami had hardly receded before environmental alarmists linked the tragedy to . . . global warming ! One newspaper, the Independent , quoted a British environmental activist saying that \"here again are yet more events in the real world that are consistent with climate-change predictions.\" On New Year's Eve, Sir David King, Britain's chief science adviser and top climate-change fanatic, told the BBC, \"What is happening in the Indian Ocean underlines the importance of the Earth's system to our ability to live safely. And what we are talking about in terms of climate change is something that is really driven by our own use of fossil fuels.\" It was almost as if environmentalists were trying to vindicate Michael Crichton's scenario in State of Fear, where eco-terrorists attempt to start a tsunami in the Pacific to scare people about global warming."
## [4278] "Mann accepts that some of the measurements he used do not directly represent temperature change. His argument is that, for instance, coral records showing rainfall records in the Pacific are proxies for El Nino cycles and so for changes in ocean temperature. Jacoby is not convinced??"
## [4279] "The four researchers report that \"no model\" - that's right, no model - \"reproduces the process of Antarctic bottom water formation accurately.\" Rather, \"instead of forming dense water on the continental shelf and allowing it to spill off,\" they indicate that \"models present extensive areas of deep convection, thus leading to an unrealistic, unstratified open ocean.\""
## [4280] "The bottom line of those two quotes: ocean heat content data before the ARGO floats are of very limited value, and ocean heat content data based on ARGO floats are so riddled with problems they too are questionable."
## [4281] "The fundamentally intractable GCM resolution problem is nicely illustrated by a thunderstorm weather system moving across Arizona. 110??110 cells are the finest resolution computationally feasible in CMIP5. Useless for resolving convection processes."
## [4282] "We know that climate models cannot simulate the sea surface temperature anomalies of the past 31 years. See here . So why should we have any confidence in a climate model-based study of hurricanes that depends on flawed simulations of sea surface temperatures? We shouldnt. Also, tropical cyclones are strongly impacted by El Nio and La Nia events, and climate models still cant simulate El Nios and La Nias. Kerry Emanuels new climate model-based paper is nothing more than computer-aided speculation, using models that cant simulate fundamental components of the study."
## [4283] "Such failed projections should come as no great surprise. As the IPCC's own 2001 Assessment Report concludes: \"The climate system is a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.\""
## [4284] "No doubt these scientists genuinely believe in their own perception of the climate change story. But why do mainstream scientists go along with the inevitable overstatement associated with the activism business?"
## [4285] "3. The IPCC's climate-model alarmism regarding dangerous, accelerating sea levels due to human CO2 emissions is without empirical merit - summarily, an IPCC fantasy."
## [4286] "Suffice it to say that Climategate is just the tip of the iceberg of misbehaving mainstream climate scientists whose personal agendas and lack of humility have misled not only themselves but many others. We all deserve better."
## [4287] "Contrasting evidence of past temperature variations at Law Dome, Antarctica has been derived from ice core isotope measurements and from the inversion of a subsurface temperature profile (Dahl-Jensen et al., 1999; Goosse et al., 2004; Jones and Mann, 2004). The borehole analysis indicates colder intervals at around 1250 and 1850, followed by a gradual warming of 0.7C to the present. The isotope record indicates a relatively cold 20th century and warmer conditions throughout the period 1000 to 1750."
## [4288] "Just a little honesty there, too. Just one off-the-cuff suggestion (volcanoes, which have not been particularly active globally in the past decade), but no fewer than three possible modeling errors are suggested."
## [4289] "It is well known thatnighttimesurface temperatures have risen over the last century. This is primarily due to the Urban Heat Island effect. Asphalt, heaters, air conditioners, irrigation they all keepnighttimetemperatures up."
## [4290] "Even the New York Times seems to view this effort as constitutionally dubious. \"Many legal experts have questioned whether the actions and statements by Exxon Mobil can be construed as criminal and outside the protections of the First Amendment,\" wrote John Schwartz of the Times."
## [4291] "This result indicates why one can not use tree rings for any periods warmer than the calibration perioda situation which is difficult to know a priori . The same issue could affect certain other types of temperature proxies (besides tree rings) as well."
## [4292] "In the 1970s (I am not saying, for the whole decade) there was a consensus about global cooling. How is such a conclusion reached? By asking the right question."
## [4293] "BREAKING: Steven McIntyre reports that 649 Berkeley stations lack information on latitude and longitude, including 145 BOGUS stations. 453 stations lack not only latitude and longitude, but even a name. Many such stations are located in the country , but a large fraction are located in United States. Steve says: Im pondering how one goes about calculating spatial autocorrelation between two BOGUS stations with unknown locations. (Jo Nova)"
## [4294] "These kind of explanations, by leading climate modelers, suggest that climate models do not in fact reflect understanding of the key physical climate processes well enough to generate projections of future climate that one could rely upon. It seems unlikely that climate model projections would be accorded much policy significance if the way in which they were able to reproduce past climate was generally understood. It seems more than plausible that policymakers (let alone the general public), take a models purported ability reproduce past temperatures as an indication that the models assumption about climate sensitivity is correct."
## [4295] "A post by Steven Goddard today shows how James Hansen's GISS data was tampered to create 0.35C artificial global warming. Since the total alleged global warming since 1850 is only 0.7C , this single tamper alone accounts for half of that trend. So, in a sense, the IPCC attribution statement is finally vindicated with 95% confidence that over 50% of global warming is Mann-made."
## [4296] "1. AFTER DECADES OF CLIMATE MODELING EFFORTS, WHY DOES THE CURRENT GENERATION OF CLIMATE MODELS SIMULATE GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MORE POORLY THAN THE PRIOR GENERATION?"
## [4297] "Atmospheric physicist and Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at MIT, Richard Lindzen, posted an article in the fall 2013 issue of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons characterizing global warming as an alarmist religion. Furthermore, he accuses alarmist orthodoxy of adjusting both data and theory to accommodate politically-correct positions that are costly to society."
## [4298] "It doesn't appear that Grantham the investor is profiting from climate alarmism yet. \"Global warming will be the most important investment issue for the foreseeable future,\" he writes. \"But how to make money around this issue in the next few years is not yet clear to me.\" But Grantham the philanthropist is making big investments in climate science alarmism. And in that way he's guilty of what die-hard contrarians consider the biggest sin on the Streettalking his own book."
## [4299] "Existing parameterization of cloud amounts in GCMs are physically very crude. When empirical adjustments of parameters are made to achieve verisimilitude, the model may appear to be validated against the present climate. But such tuning by itself does not guarantee that the response of clouds to a change in CO2 concentration is also tuned. It must thus be emphasized that the modeling of clouds is one of the weakest links in the GCM efforts."
## [4300] "Speaking of Tamino, he presented a post about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, see his post here , and I replied to it in my post Comments on Taminos AMO Post . In another of his posts , Tamino took exception to a comment I made that climate models cannot reproduce the multidecadal variations exhibited in the temperature record, and in my response , I presented the outputs of all of the CMIP3 climate model simulations in a gif animation to show that the vast majority of the model simulations do not present the multidecadal variability that exists in the data."
## [4301] "There are many problems, but a couple suffice to show pre-selection and manipulation. Solar activity increased to 2000 and volcanic forcing, presumably from volcanic dust levels, are essentially unknown. If important, why wasnt volcanic forcing in the Natural portion of the diagrams? Their claim that only models with anthropogenic forcing simulate observed patterns of warming is pre-determined by the variables and data they chose, and how model programming. If you leave out almost all natural forcing and the one you include is serious limited and misrepresented then you control the results."
## [4302] "For climate alarmists, climate change has become what logicians call a \"non-falsifiable hypothesis.\" Every weather anomaly is said to be a sign of climate change. After the near-record January 1996 blizzard hit the northeastern U.S., Newsweek ran a cover story attributing the storm to climate change. A year later, when an unusually warm winter led to early snow melt and floods in the upper Midwest, Vice President Al Gore and others attributed it to climate change. And the three hurricanes that struck Florida in close succession last summer were a bonanza for the climate-change chorus, even though serious climate scientists readily admit that ascribing today's extreme weather events to global warming is scientifically insupportable. In fact, the intensity of hurricanes and cyclones has diminished slightly over the past 30 years."
## [4303] "* The primary temperature records relied on by the IPCC and the EPA cover far too short a time to be a useful tool for policy making and are inadequately corrected for the urban heat island effect and other errors. One analysis of these records found errors of 1 -5 C (1.8 -9.0 F) for 1969 data in certain regions, when the claimed warming for the entire twentieth century was only 0.7 C (1.3 F); errors for records in the early century are likely even greater. Reliance on these records is thus misplaced."
## [4304] "At first, it was funny to read about how kittens, redheads and the Loch Ness monster were allegedly affected by climate transmogrification (CT). (The term \"climate change\" really doesn't cut it for true activists, does it?) Eventually even the people at Number Watch stopped keeping track of the more than 800 items on their list of things allegedly caused by CT because they were blown over by the scale of the journalistic baloney storm (BS) that fills human news bandwidth on climate."
## [4305] "As Lamb identified, lack of data was and remains the most serious limitation. The situation is completely inadequate for temperature, supposedly the best measured variable. How can two major agencies HadCRUT and GISS produce such different results,"
## [4306] "As Anthony Watts says, Ding-dong, the stick is dead. Watts provides a nut-shell explanation of long and tortured history of the notorious global warming hockey stick, and its demise:"
## [4307] "Figure 10 is a map that shows how the data for the additional discussions were subdivided. Basically, this was done to isolate the North Atlantic from the additional ocean basins in the Rest-Of-The-World data. And the observed Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for those two subsets are shown in Figure 11. As illustrated, the linear trend of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies is significantly higher than the linear trend of the South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific subset. This higher trend in the North Atlantic data is caused by the additional mode of natural variability known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. And as we will see, the forced component of the models (the model mean) does not account for the additional variability in the North Atlantic attributable to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation."
## [4308] "They accomplish this through a spectacular hockey stick of data tampering, which cools the past and warms the present."
## [4309] "Link to book: The Global Warming Scam and the Climate Change Superscam"
## [4310] "The map is misleading because each station dot is proportionally about 200km across but still the change is dramatic. Gaps are so great they make analysis meaningless, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does it anyway. As DAleo and Watts explain,"
## [4311] "Bottom line: Until climate models can simulate the observed warming spatial patterns, and the observed multidecadal variations in sea surface temperatures, they have no hope of being able to simulate climate on continental land masses."
## [4312] "Despite billions being spent on research to prove that the 'CO2-causes-global-warming' hypothesis has merit, the actual global temperature observations, as shown in the adjacent chart, confirm the spectacular prediction failure of CO2-based climate models."
## [4313] "Since the nighttime temperatures are rising three times as fast as the daytime temperatures (Karl et al., 1993), it implies a non-climatic signal in the nighttime data equal to about one half of the total warming. It implies the reported global warming of 0.6 C in the twentieth century should be reduced to about 0.3 C."
## [4314] "It used to be that warm winters and cool summers proved global warming. Now it is the other way around."
## [4315] "The IPCC scientists and global warming alarmists predicted that increasing CO2 emissions would lead to a catastrophic permafrost tipping point, unleashing gigatons of methane gas - they were wrong"
## [4316] "Wednesday Marc Morano, founder of CFACT's Climate Depot, released a 321 page report listing over 1,000 scientists who dissent over man-made global warming which Morano termed a \"consensus buster.\""
## [4317] "A member of the UK parliament, MP Peter Lilley, has written a scathing rebuttal study to the 2006 Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change which has been used a a basis for UK government to move forward with climate policy. The number of errors and distortions he has uncovered is quite extraordinary and brings the validity of the Stern report into serious question, if not outright falsifying it. Anthony"
## [4318] "Salby's paper is due to be published soon, and I have yet to see his charts, so I am certainly not endorsing his view here. Till now I had thought the attribution of CO2 increases to fossil fuel emissions was a firmly settled aspect of climate science. But I once thought that about the hockey stick graph and the attribution of climate change to CO2 levels in the Vostok core, too. So I am prepared to consider Salby's case open-mindedly. The biggest obstacle he has to overcome is to explain why CO2 levels are so much higher today than in other warm periods, such as the Holocene Optimum and the previous interglacials."
## [4319] "Two recent climate science papers deal a savage blow to the climate alarmists' dogma that human caused greenhouse gas emissions will result in dangerous climate change. One paper suggests that the projected warming was not masked by sulfate aerosols, and the second paper argues that less of the recent warming was due to a human influence than posited. Combined the two papers provide further evidence the climate models the U.N. and the U.S. rely upon are deeply flawed."
## [4320] "Christopher Monckton has already spoken about the draft treaty with its message of setting up a new form of global governance, but without any mention of voting. He spoke again yesterday to Alex Jones and pointed out that in a sense Copenhagen succeeded , despite what everyone is saying. After all, it was never really about saving the environment was it? It was about setting up a world government, and they got the odd $30 billion dollars . Not bad for a failure."
## [4321] "The nexus between religion and global warming is an interesting one. The dogma associated with global warming was discussed in a number of my previous posts:"
## [4322] "The statement that In March a team of climate scientists at Kiel University predicted that natural variation would mask the 0.3C warming predicted by the Intergovernment Panel on Climate Change over the next decade is scientifically incorrect.Heating cannot be masked."
## [4323] "National Climate Assessment Report: Alarmists Offer Untrue, Unrelenting Doom and Gloom"
## [4324] "A recent open-access paper in GRL by Chylek et al, here , throws further light on the behaviour of three of the models used by Shindell. The authors conclude from an inverse structural analysis that the CanESM2, GFDL-CM3and HadGEM-ES models all strongly overestimate GHG warming and compensate by a very strongly overestimated aerosol cooling, which simulates AMO-like behaviour with the correct timing something that would not occur if the models were generating true AMO behaviour from natural internal variability. Interestingly, the paper also estimates that only about two-thirds of the post-1975 global warming is due to anthropogenic effects, with the other one-third being due to the positive phase of the AMO."
## [4325] "How can a scientific conclusions that emerge from \"processes of deliberation and discussion rather than from pure observation, experimentation and falsification\" be considered \"settled\" and \"certain\"? And do you agree or disagree with Hulme that climate scientists should not suggest \"that matters are settled\"?"
## [4326] "In 1999, NASA showed US temperatures falling. That didnt meet their funding requirements , so they simply altered the data to make the cooling disappear, and turned it into warming. Straight out of Orwell."
## [4327] "Be all that as it may, the next IPCC report is now being produced. It will attempt to reflect what the various committees and advisors believe to be the scientific consensus on various matters including sea levels. But it appears that there simply isn't any scientific consensus on the Antarctic and Greenland melt rates - and therefore there isn't one on sea levels either."
## [4328] "Suppressed Critical Knowledge. Phil Jones wrote, \"I've been told that IPCC is above national FOI Acts. One way to cover yourself and all those working on the IPCC 5th Assessment Report would be to delete all e-mails at the end of the process. Any work we have done in the past is done on the back of the research grants we get and has to be well hidden. I've discussed this with the main funder in the past and they are happy about not releasing the original station data.\" The U.S. government was colluding with the hiders, who received tens of millions of dollars over the years. Jones wrote to Mann, \"Mike, can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith Briffa re AR4 ? Keith will do likewise. We will be getting Caspar Ammann to do likewise.\""
## [4329] "2) To my quick scan, more of the stations are cooler. It would be best to do some sort of statistical plot of the data, but right now, this is hot off the presses. More importantly, from personal knowledge of the locations, those stations that are more suburban and a bit closer to the original environment are the cool ones. The warm ones are nearer to development, concrete and roadways. Its pretty clear to me that the development around and at the airport cuts a degree or two off the lower temperatures on cold clear nights. Just the pattern we see in the data. Cold clipping."
## [4330] "Many critics have complained that the biggest problem with the IPCC Third Assessment Report, which was completed under Watson's chairmanship, is advocacy and not science."
## [4331] "To cut a long story short, the 95% certainty of Working Group I boils down to climate models and 98% of them didnt predict the pause in surface temperature trends (von Storch 2013) . Even under the most generous interpretation, models are proven failures, 100% right except for rain, drought, storms, humidity and everything else (Taylor 2012). They get cloud feedbacks wrong by a factor 19 times larger than the entire effect of increased CO2 (Miller 2012). They dont predict the climate on a local, regional, or continental scale (Anagnostopoulos 2010 andKoutsoyiannis 2008). They dont work on the tropical troposphere (Christy 2010, Po-Chedley 2012 , Fu 2011 , Paltridge 2009). The fingerprints they predicted are 100% missing."
## [4332] "Climate models are the basis for much of the gloom and doom predictions of warming. The problem is that the models are terrible even at hindcasting , which somewhat detracts from their predictive credibility."
## [4333] "Climate science has transformed itself from a research backwater a few decades ago into one of the greatest public-good scientific cash cows ever devised. In Australia, for instance, there is a separate federal Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency specifically devoted to implementing (buying?) the social change required to limit global warming. The livelihood of many of the climate scientists within the CSIRO and elsewhere is now dependent on grants from that department. It is not a situation conducive to sceptical outlook and balanced advice. When a tendency toward postmodern science is mixed with a single, generous and undoubtedly biased source of money, it is not surprising that things can go very wrong very quickly."
## [4334] "Problems with surface measurements are notorious. Recording stations are sparse, even nonexistent in vital global locations, most particularly throughout the Southern Hemisphere and in remote polar regions. After 1970 the number of reporting stations dropped suddenly and drastically. (Stations at airports have seemed to be unaffected, and may even have increased in number.) And as John noted, urban heat islands have developed over time, not to mention problems resulting from faulty placements of temperature recording instruments which have to be \"corrected\" by applying subjective \"homogenizing' (tuning) procedures."
## [4335] "Figure 1 presents maps of the modeled and observed warming and cooling rates of the surfaces of the global oceans for the period of 1982 to 2013. The color-coded contour levels are presented in deg C/year. The model mean is presented in the left-hand map and the observed warming rates are presented in the right-hand one. There are no similarities between the spatial patterns of the modeled and observed trends. The models show the greatest warming near the equator, while in the real world, the greatest warming has occurred at mid and high latitudes. The North Atlantic in the real world warmed at the highest rate. That warming of the North Atlantic is associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation."
## [4336] "15. The Climate-gate scandal revealed that a scientific team had tampered with their own data so as to conceal inconsistencies and errors."
## [4337] "Glikson then digs deeply into the handbag of IPCC quick-fix-glue and resorts to the ritual lines about how the IPCC has looked at every possible cause and ruled all the rest out. Its known as argument from ignorance: we cant think of anything else it could be. Never mind that they are searching for answers with the same models that cant find the Medieval Warm Period, the Roman Warming, the cause of the Little Ice Age, the warm period in the 1940s, or the cooling of the 50s and 60s either. Never mind that even the IPCC admits they cant model cloud cover well, and cant explain why theres been no statistically significant warming since 1995."
## [4338] "Judith Curry wrote a revealing summary of reflections on the fifth anniversary of Climategate. It references an early Curry commentary on Steve Mcintyres site titled, On the credibility of climate research. In that article Curry provides examples of Ivory Tower thinking."
## [4339] "Basically rgbatduke argued that model methods to create spectra for chemical elements such as carbon had limitations; that there was a history of improvement of models; the average of such successive models was meaningless; they did not succeed without some computational judgment; and even then, they were not as good as the measured result. The same comments should be applied to the various climate model comparisons shown in the spaghetti graph, particularly the meaningless average. Climate models were stated to be far more complex than atomic spectral calculations."
## [4340] "Climatologist Dr. Eduardo Zorita, one of the authors of the recent paper rejecting the climate models at a confidence level >98% over the past 15 years , has a new post in which he states that the model vs. real-world discrepancy is even greater during the winter months , with only 0.2% of 6,104 climate model runs projecting the observed negative trend in winter temperatures over the past 15 years. Climate models instead predicted that the most warming would occur during the winter months, the opposite of observations."
## [4341] "Indeed, Mann's recent New York Times op-ed begins with a blanket defamation of anyone who has ever questioned his global warming orthodoxy, people he describes as a \"a fringe minority\" which \"clings to an irrational rejection of well-established science,\" promoting a \"virulent strain of anti-science.\""
## [4342] "The video of the recent lecture given by Nobel Laureate physicist Dr. Ivar Giaever at the 2012 meeting of Nobel Laureates is now available online . In the highly recommended lecture, Dr. Giaever explains why global warming is a \"pseudoscience\" that begins with an emotionally-appealing hypothesis, and \"then only looks for items which appear to support it,\" while ignoring ample contrary evidence. Dr. Giaever explains why \"global warming has become a new religion - because you can't discuss it - and that is wrong.\""
## [4343] "Long term, continuous and uncorrupted temperature records are difficult to find. One such record does exist at an agricultural experiment station, known as Rothamsted Experimental Station, in southeastern England. The station has been taking temperature readings every day at 9 a.m. since 1878 using thermometers very similar to the ones we use today. The 121-year record is continuous with no missing data and the landscape has remained largely agricultural over the entire period."
## [4344] "The terms ?ecocide? and ?climate denial? of course bring to mind the Holocaust and those revisionist cranks who question its veracity. Environmentalists constantly conjure up Holocaust imagery ? on the one hand to stress that climate change is an indisputable evil, and on the other hand to shut down debate on the matter. Anyone who dares to demand that the claims of greens be scrutinised, anyone who questions the severity of the climate threat or argues that how humanity should handle it is up for debate, is put on a par with Holocaust-denying fraudsters. Greens are making use of the fact that the campaign to criminalise Holocaust denial has grown in recent years, consciously putting ?climate change denial? on a par with Holocaust denial so that those who question environmentalism can be prosecuted, too."
## [4345] "How well do current state-of-the-art climate models perform in this regard? The four researchers who conducted this study state that ?until the full range of deep convective processes in the tropics is more realistically represented in climate models, they cannot be used to predict the changes of extreme precipitation events in a changing (warming) climate? Read More"
## [4346] "The rumors about Antarctica losing mass are from some fatally flawed gravity studies from the University of Texas a few years ago, done by people who were too stupid to know that glacial rebound causes the bedrock below the glaciers to change elevation. Their legacy of junk science continues to grow and expand."
## [4347] "The authors also offer a valuable and complete history of environmentalists' fraudulent global warming arguments, and they explain how there is a lack of scientific evidence available to support the claim humans are responsible for catastrophic global climate change. Moore and White also show how the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) misled the Supreme Court concerning the safety of carbon dioxide in order to get the Court to declare it a pollutant, which allows EPA to have the power to regulate it."
## [4348] "Here we have a Professor of Systematic Music (makes me wonder what Unsystematic Music sounds like probably rock n roll) speaking as an expert for the scientific consensus on climate. This, of course, should simply be ridiculed. If you accept Consensus Climate Science, and you are a musicologist, you must acknowledge that you have no right to your opinion. You are not a climatologist; you are not an ethicist. You have nothing at all to say that anyone other than a Denier of Consensus would listen to."
## [4349] "Clearly, even if the observed uncertainty was as small as concluded byLevitus et al 2012 any attempt tousethe multi-decadal climate model predictions to provide an explantion forthis warming at depth (even if real)is not robust scientifically."
## [4350] "Notwithstanding the failure of models to get the tropical troposphere right, when discussing fidelity to temperature trends the SPM of the AR5 declares Very High Confidence in climate models (p.15). But they also declare low confidence in their handling of clouds (p. 16), which is very difficult to square with their claim of very high confidence in models overall. They seem to be largely untroubled by trend discrepancies over 10-15 year spans (p. 15). Well see what they say about 55-year discrepancies."
## [4351] "But consider the alarmism in Houghtons comment about why we need to deal with climate change."
## [4352] "Inadequacies of modeling the Hadley Cell, a major mechanism in producing global weather and climate, are enough to invalidate the models and cause the failed predictions. The IPCC claim that, Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. In IPCC jargon Very likely means more than 90 percent certain, but inadequate modeling of the Hadley Cell alone makes that a false claim."
## [4353] "But in the following comment Ian Castles argues that most experts would consider the IPCCs more alarming predictions to be exaggerated, and that the Panel has failed to consider possibilities that would result in much slower growth in carbon dioxide concentrations."
## [4354] "* This survey, like the previous one, provides us with a fascinating ANATOMY OF A SCIENTIFIC DELUSION. When asked, majorities of climate scientists say they do not believe the scientific claims that underlie the theory and predictions of catastrophic anthropogenic climate change, yet large majorities of those same scientists say they nevertheless believe in the theory and its predictions. This cognitive dissonance is, I believe, what gives rise to and sustains popular mass delusions."
## [4355] "Add to that the fact that more than 2/3rds of the worlds stations (most rural) have dropped out and or are often missing monthly data, 69% of the first nearly 600 US stations evaluated by Anthony Watts surface stations.org are poor or very poorly sited with only 4% meeting official standards and no changes were made for the known biases of new instrumentation."
## [4356] "The five researchers report that (1) \"the simulated relationship between changed annual rainfall amounts and the number of rain days or their intensity varies strongly from one model to another,\" that (2) \"the climate models' simulations do not show any consensus in the trends of the annual rainfall amount over the West African Sahel during the 21st century, even when they are run under the same climate change scenario at a high spatial resolution,\" and that (3) \"some changes do not correspond to what is observed for the rainfall variability over the last 50 years.\" What it means"
## [4357] "The authors write that the response of low-level clouds has long been identified as \"a key source of uncertainty for model cloud feedbacks under climate change,\" citing the work of Bony and Dufresne (2005), Webb et al . (2006), Wyant et al . (2006) and Medeiros et al . (2008). And they state that \"the ability of climate models to simulate low-clouds and their radiative properties\" plays a huge role in assessing \"our confidence in climate projections.\""
## [4358] "But Dr. Jones went even further recently. He said in The Independent newspaper that the changes in 2003 could not be accounted for by natural climate variability, and can be attributed to global warming caused by human actions. \"The temperatures recorded in Europe were out of all proportion to the previous record,\" he said. To make such an unequivocal statement is not only unscientific, but smacks of desperation. The Kyoto Protocol is floundering without Russian support, and with growing European business resentment of the cost of compliance, the climate alarmists are in danger of losing the battle. It is therefore not surprising that they are resorting to such extremism. We are approaching the end game for this Protocol and with it, hopefully, the end of policy driven by climate alarmism."
## [4359] "In other words, the craze for \"renewables\" is driven by religious zeal, not science or economics. Capturing, converting and transmitting energy from any source requires an infrastructure which involves construction, maintenance and eventual replacement, all of which require land disturbance, raw materials extraction and processing, energy and investment. There is no pure fountain from which to drink only limited options, each with its own upsides and downsides."
## [4360] "Clearly, observed temperature trends are predicting a future temp that resembles the IPCC projection if CO2 was held constant - the actual trends are multiple times below the \"runaway\" and \"accelerating\" global warming that Obama and the IPCC still push."
## [4361] "* Confidence in climate models based on their ability to causally relate 20th century temperature trends to trends in CO2 may well be misplaced, because such models do not agree on the sensitivity of global climate to increases in CO2 and are able to explain 20th century temperature trends only by making arbitrary and widely varying assumptions about the net cooling impact of atmospheric aerosols;"
## [4362] "Double Standard: Warmist climate scientist fails to disclose conflict of interest funds from green billionaire"
## [4363] "The science literature is always alive and well, and we are fairly certain you have not seen this classic in many places before visiting us at World Climate Report . The elephant seal ( Mirounga leonina ) has an interesting story to tell us about the Hockey Stick and the global temperatures over the past few thousand years. In a recent article in the very prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , a team of scientists from the United States, United Kingdom, and Italy reveal an amazing discovery that further challenges the shape of the hockey stick."
## [4364] "Move Polar thermometers onto airports, often military bases, and they warm up. Add a bunch of thermometers at tropical airports and you measure an increasing average of temperatures."
## [4365] "Let me re-state my view on these temperature series again: personally I have no doubt that temperatures are warmer today than in the 19th century. Are they warmer than the 11th century? I dont know. Is it warmer now than the 1930s? Probably, but the size of the difference seems to depend to an alarming extent on adjustments. Thats not to say that the adjustments are wrong, but, if one is going to rely on specific estimates of the difference, one needs to understand the nitty-gritty of the adjustments that underpin the conclusion and why the adjustments are so different between KNMI, GISS and GHCN."
## [4366] "There is only one true measure of a models value: whether or not it works. That it is theoretically sound, or that it uses pleasantly arcane and inaccessible mathematics, or that it matches our desires, or that only PhDs can understand it are all very nice things, but they are none of them necessary. Many complex models which are in use are loved and trusted because of these things, but they should not be. They should only be valued to the extent that they accurately quantify the uncertainty of the real-life stuff that happens (climate models anyone?)."
## [4367] "The Science and Public Policy Institute has published an analysis of the leaked climategate emails. This 149-page document takes the emails in chronological order and shows, with comments on each message, how science was perverted."
## [4368] "But this isnt about one ambitious politician smearing another ambitious politician. This is about the President of the United States a non-scientist making a grossly dishonest mischaracterization and analogy at the expense of expert scientists and then encouraging our nations best and brightest to shout down those scientists utilizing further dishonesty and McCarthyism to further political agendas. And the moment somebody questions the President about such reprehensible conduct no matter how calmly the question is asked the political left goes into conniptions about how appalling and reprehensible it is to disrespect the Office of the President of the United States in such a manner."
## [4369] "Unfortunately for the climate science consensus experts, this latest release of NOAA temperature data confirms that they are essentially clueless when it comes to predicting regional and global temperature changes. Likewise, it also confirms that one of the scientists' favorite concepts - that human CO2 emissions are similar to a world \"control knob\" or thermostat for climate temperatures - is simply idiotic, not even plausible."
## [4370] "From the National Science Foundation , more nuttiness from the reef alarmist Ove Hugh-Goldbergs sea-buddy John Bruno, who I encountered in Brisbane last year ."
## [4371] "They're wrong about their numbers (many climate scientists disagree with them), but surely they believe it. If so, why worry? If they enjoy an \"overwhelming majority,\" why urge the president to prosecute the tiny fringe that opposes them?"
## [4372] "Urban heat islands and irrigated agriculture can inject false warming biases into instrumental data that are absent from proxy data taken from remote forests or sediment cores at the bottom of lakes, for example. Improper placement of temperature sensing equipment near local heat sources (e.g. air conditioning vents, asphalt parking lots, waste water treatment plants) also generates significant false warming signals, as retired meteorologist Anthony Watts documents in gory detail."
## [4373] "The scientific method demands that theories be tested by empirical observation. By that test, the models are wrong. They therefore provide no rational basis to forecast dangerous human-induced global warming, and therefore no rational basis for efforts to reduce warming by restricting the use of fossil fuels or any other means."
## [4374] "The Met Office, using data generated by a 33million supercomputer, claims Britain can stop worrying about a big freeze this year because we could be in for a milder winter than in past years. The new figures, which show a 60 per cent to 80 per cent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures this winter, were ridiculed last night by independent forecasters. Positive Weather Solutions senior forecaster Jonathan Powell said: ?It baffles me how the Met Office can predict a milder-than-average winter when all the indicators show this winter will have parallels to the last one. ?They are standing alone here, as ourselves and other independent forecasters are all predicting a colder-than-average winter. Nathan Reo, Daily Express, 28 October 2010"
## [4375] "But as Gerlich and Tscheuschner observe, the science of climate change is fraught with uncertainties and unknowns that make a mockery of the predictive powers of laboratory computer models:"
## [4376] "Is it improper to label the people responsible for this costly, miserable catastrophe as \"eco-thugs\"? And should we worry that the latest no-real-energy \"energy security\" proposal from the White House is telling us that President Obama has become America's \"Eco-thug in Chief,\" who will continue to peddle fraudulent science and nearly worthless renewable energy to further his agenda? It's worth pondering."
## [4377] "At the same fall meeting four years ago, Al Gore spoke to ten thousand assembled scientists. The scientists treated him like a rock star. Why would the scientists love Al Gore? His movie, An Inconvenient Truth , was full of scientific errors . But this is about not biting the hand that feeds you. When Al Gore spreads global warming hysteria, financial and political support for climate science increases. Scientists become guests on TV shows instead of lab drones.But a dark cloud is gathering over climate science. Public fear of global warming is declining. Most of the activist scientists gathered in San Francisco were blind to the possibility that there is any defect in their scary product. It must be that forces of darkness (perhaps Republicans or coal companies) are financing skeptics. Apparently the skeptics, cleverly disguised as grassroots activists, have an uncanny knack for propaganda."
## [4378] "The last of those is obviously the most serious. Michael Mann began receiving a large amount of attention after he published two papers in the late nineties, creating his ???hockey stick.?? A few years later, his work was criticized by the authors Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, leading to a controversy that would rage on for years. Eventually, two reports were commissioned by the United States Congress to study the controversy. The lead author of one of those reports was Edward Wegman, a distinguished statistician from George Mason University."
## [4379] "An English judge previously ruled that Gore's book is partisan, biased, and contains many factual errors, even though he shared Gore's belief that man is causing global warming."
## [4380] "In their attempts to disguise the fact that 2012 will likely turn out to be one of the colder years this century, NOAA have made the ludicrous, and frankly dishonest, claim that this year is set to be the hottest La Nina year on record."
## [4381] "RSS is still using the old NOAA-15 satellite which has a decaying orbit, to which they are then applying a diurnal cycle drift correction based upon a climate model, which does not quite match reality."
## [4382] "However, I??m far from convinced that the satellite records are revealed truth. It seems quite possible to me that quite different satellite trends could emerge if there were a couple of inter-satellite adjustment errors. I don??t know right now how one would estimate the potential magnitude of the adjustment errors, but, as soon as one introduces potential step adjustment errors, it becomes pretty hard to estimate trends. More on this on another occasion."
## [4383] "Oo-er! Instead of a zero trend, we now have a terrifying increase in global temperature, at a rate equivalent to a shockingly sizzling er 1.24 C per century. That is below the 1.7 C/century near-term warming predicted in IPeCaCs 2013 Fifth Assessment Report. Well below the 2 C/century predicted in the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report. Scarcely more than a third of the 3.5 C/century mid-range estimate in the 1990 First Assessment Report. A quarter of the 5 C/century predicted by the over-excitable James Hansen in front of Congress in 1988."
## [4384] "Writing in the Wall Street Journal and on the web site of Anthony Watts, Matt Ridley reports he has seen a key prediction in the new documents the IPCC will reduce the most extreme projection of warming from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide somewhat, 30%, as compared with its 2007 projections."
## [4385] "NOTE: CMIP5-based sea surface temperature outputs had been available through the KNMI Climate Explorer. I was hoping to use it in this post. It, unfortunately, was removed from the KNMI Climate Explorer. Hopefully it will return in the near future so that I can include it in the next update, to serve as a preview of how badly the newest models simulate sea surface temperatures in advance of the IPCCs upcoming 5 th Assessment Report."
## [4386] ">I regularly mention in ENSO posts that there was little SST sampling in the eastern equatorial Pacific prior to the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914, that the reader needs to keep that in mind when viewing early NINO3.4 data."
## [4387] "All those IPCC computer models that have been predicting global warming were wrong, are wrong, and will remain wrong for all time until the Earth actually begins to warm again."
## [4388] "At the end of part 1 on Curry's site, Tony makes reference to how Science Daily edited out key information from a study they reported on thus leaving their readers with an impression that previous sea levels were not higher. Interesting. Confirms why today's science journalists are no longer easily trusted."
## [4389] "The bizarre saga gets even stranger when viewed alongside Dr. Manns kneejerk lawsuit against Dr. Tim Ball , a Canadian scientist, historical climatologist and retired professor who has frequently voiced his skepticism about claims that hydrocarbon use and carbon dioxide emissions are the primary cause of climate change and present an imminent risk of widespread planetary cataclysms. Dr. Ball has analyzed Canadian and global climate history, and does not regard computer models as much more than virtual reality scenarios that should never be the basis for real-world public policy."
## [4390] "With respect to the glacial oceans , the nine researchers say that (1) \"most models overestimate the ocean cooling,\" that (2) \"they do not capture the heterogeneity seen in the reconstructions,\" that (3) \"spatial patterns in reconstructed LGM annual SST anomalies ... are not well predicted by the models,\" and that (4) \"the seasonal SST anomalies show no correlation with the reconstructions.\""
## [4391] "Now that the Bali conference is over and climate scientists have warned us again about the dire predictions of their climate models, a question remains: Will their forecasts come true? Given the current international focus on global warming, you would think that, in 10, 15 or 20 years, many people will want to know whether today?s predictions proved accurate."
## [4392] "The only place you will find proof of global warming these days is in computer models."
## [4393] "We all owe a debt of gratitude to the skeptics who have courageously disputed the global warming/climate change hoax and to The Heartland Institute that has provided a platform for them to gather to continue their efforts to educate a public that has been deluged by a massive deception."
## [4394] "Regarding the second allegation, did Dr. Mann engage in, or participate in, directly or indirectly, any actions with the intent to delete, conceal or otherwise destroy emails, information and/or data, related to AR4, as suggested by Phil Jones, how does the Jury find?"
## [4395] "This is very important because of the oft-repeated AGW claim that surface temperature is a linear function of forcing, and that when forcing increases (say from CO2) the temperature also has to increase. The ocean proves that this is not true. There is a hard limit on ocean temperature that just doesn??t get exceeded no matter how much the sun shines."
## [4396] "The next graph overlays the IPCC graph in red on the 1975 National Academy of Sciences graph at the same scale. Our scumbag friends have knocked half a degree off most of the 20th century."
## [4397] "For example, the models predicted increasing global air temperatures (the measured rises have been much less than predicted), increasing ocean temperatures (there has been no change since 2003, when we started measuring it properly with Argo ocean-diving buoys) and the presence of a hot spot caused by humidity and cloud feedback at heights of 8km-12km in the tropical atmosphere (entirely absent)."
## [4398] "Skeptics Global Warming Blog Archive NASAs Temperature Adjustments Too Convenient If you study the graph in the article, you can clearly see that negative adjustments have been applied negatively the further back in time you go. Conversely, youll see that adjustments to temperature data have grown into the positive almost consistently since about 1970. With satellite data saying the planet is cooling, the Argos buoys showing the ocean not warming and climatologists saying the planet is cooling, why does NASA continue to modify base temperature data?"
## [4399] "After GISS??s embarrasing error with replicating September temperatures in the October analysis, the NASA GISTEMP website was down for awhile today (at least for me)."
## [4400] "The IPCC controlled results of rising atmospheric levels with data from warming advocate Charles Keelings, and later his son Rogers, measurements at Mauna Loa. There is fascinating, but disturbing correspondence on this issue between Ernst Georg Beck and Roger Keeling. Beck had to be dismissed because his work showed that 19th century levels of atmospheric CO2 were much higher than used by the IPCC and created by Guy Callendar and Tom Wigley. The IPCC controlled the annual increase in human production of CO2 by producing it themselves."
## [4401] "Second, their claim that Alaska has ???warmed by 4 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit?? is not true. The largest trend to 2009 in the Alaska temperatures is 1954-2009, which is 3.24 degrees."
## [4402] "2 The IPCC was apparently warned of the lack of basis for the claims prior to publication of AR4, however the warnings were rejected. I need someone to provide a citation for this."
## [4403] "Yet the models on which climate alarmists rely for their catastrophic scenarios do not agree on the effects of global temperature rise on the Gulf Stream. Researchers R. Bleck and S. Sun, writing in the journal Global and Planetary Change, tell how they revisited their model of the \"meridional overturning circulation' (MOC). \"In view of evidence presented in IPCC (2001),\" the researchers \"had expected the Atlantic MOC to weaken in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2.\" They found that \"the Atlantic overturning stream function appears to be stable,\" concluding that, \"It is insensitive to global warming resulting from gradual CO2 doubling.\""
## [4404] "Simply put, the GCM models are completely incapable of attributing forcing to CO 2 and completely incapable attributing forcing to global temperature. The entire climate change issue has been fabricated on the basis of these models through the introduction of a CO 2 forcing parameter that has no physical basis and was fraudulently created for the sole purpose of relating CO 2 emissions to global temperature when no such relationship possibly existed."
## [4405] "Using the methods employed by Nuccitelli, Ive identified the 15 strongest positive anomalies and classified them as El Nios in Figure 5, and Ive done the same with La Nias. According to the Nuccitelli ENSO Index, the threshold for El Nios is +0.45, while the threshold for La Nias is -0.32. The Nuccitelli ENSO Index makes it easier to qualify as a La Nia than El Nio. What nonsense!! Another was way to look at it, the Nuccitelli index shows that ENSO was skewed toward El Nio conditions during the period he chose to examine. Why didnt Nuccitelli present that at SkepticalScience?"
## [4406] "The climate change mafia, led by Dr Rajendra K Pachauri, chairperson of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), almost pulled off the heist of the century through fraudulent data and suppression of procedure. All the while, they were cornering millions of dollars in research grants that heaped one convenient untruth upon another. And as if the money wasn't enough, the Nobel Committee decided they should have the coveted Peace Prize."
## [4407] "The scariest parts of the planetary emergency narrative ocean circulation shutdown triggering a new ice age, ice sheet disintegration raising sea levels 20 feet, malaria epidemics in industrialized countries, runaway warming from melting frozen methane deposits are implausible and not supported by scientific research."
## [4408] "For years as a broadcast meteorologist, I kept silent about the issue of global warming. Declaring skepticism labeled you (and still does) as an anti-environmentalist. After former VP Gores movie hit the big screen, I could remain silent no more. An Inconvenient Truth was filled with so many gross distortions and outright scientific misrepresentations; I felt it was my obligation to speak out."
## [4409] "As illustrated and discussed in If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their deceptive Ads? , the IPCCs climate models cannot simulate the rates at which surface temperatures warmed and cooled since 1901 on a global basis, so their failings illustrated in this postare not abnormal."
## [4410] "Phrased differently, because the satellites were inaccurate, climate scientists had to rely on the outputs of climate models and assume they were correct."
## [4411] "Since the piece ran, it has come to light that some of the documents the Times cited were obtained by an activist who, by his own admission, perpetrated a fraud on Heartland.One of the documents, a purported cover memo, is now widely regarded as wholly fabricated a view supported by what both we and Heartland have separately told the paper."
## [4412] "In any case, regarding the third allegation, did Dr. Mann engage in, or participate in, directly or indirectly, any misuse of privileged or confidential information available to him in his capacity as an academic scholar, how does the Jury find:"
## [4413] "Postscript: unsurprisingly, Rahmstorf et al has many interesting booby traps. As homework questions. (1) why is the most recent value of the gyre reconstruction shown in Rahmstorf Figure 3 (middle panel) ends in approximately 1995, when the underlying gridded reconstruction of Mann et al 2009 goes to 2006. (2) why are the reconstructions only shown back to AD900, when the underlying gridded reconstruction of Mann et al 2009 begins in AD500."
## [4414] "As empirical data about global warming continues to roll in scientists become more and more aware of just how little they know about the climate system. Data from Australia's National Tidal Facility of recent sea level trends in the Pacific area, for example, give a mixed picture. The following are sea level measurements from several sites in the Pacific:"
## [4415] "Here we see yet another climate institution, manufactured by governments, to produce evidence that they will wave during negotiations in favour of the policies they have already determined they want. Policy-based evidence-making can now be seen as an institutional process. It is an absurd charade, which is made necessary because truly independent research organisations i) no longer exist, and ii) would not write such a document, and there is no trust for the organisations behind the new initiative. Thus it is necessary to produce research for the needs of the upcoming negotiations."
## [4416] "The IPCC AR4 is given a failing grade by the hard-working Donna LaFramboise and her team of volunteer helpers."
## [4417] "Atmospheric phenomena are complicated so people's opinions about what matters in the climate inevitably reflect this complexity. If, in some subcommunity, it doesn't, it shows that this subcommunity isn't really scientific: it's a group of fascist *beep* *beep* LFCSes struggling to *beep* *beep* and *beep* *beep* and we should better *beep* *beep* to *beep* *beep* to protect the elementary values of science and the modern civilization in general. So *beep* to all the LFCSes."
## [4418] "The Center for Health and Global Environment is a hot bed for climate alarmism and anti-coal propaganda. The latest paper, with so much missing in its analysis, builds in that tradition."
## [4419] "This is why I have trouble trusting GISS data. We keep finding instances like this one where the historical temperature record has been adjusted for no discernible or apparently logical reason. Cedarville, CA, which I previously highlighted is another prime example of a rural station with a long history, little growth, no UHI, but with an artificially enhanced positive temperature trend ."
## [4420] "The New Scientist headline for the spaghetti graph proclaims that ??? all suggest that it is warmer now than at any time in the past 1000 years??. Now several of these series do not extend to the MWP and shed no light on the matter one way or another: Oerlemans (only to 1600); Huang (only to 1500); Briffa 2001 (only to 1402) and Hegerl 2006 (only to 1251). The deletion of post-1960 Briffa 2001 values removes an inconvenient divergence in which the series reaches very low levels in the latter part of the 20th century. As discussed in connection with IPCC, the deletion of recent values makes these series look more unanimous in their ability to record temperatures than they truly are. The Wilson spaghetti graph in the 1961-1990 calibration period has all series below the zero mark, which surely can??t be right and suggests some peculiarity in his re-scaling method."
## [4421] "Much is opaque to non-specialists, but persistent inquiry and study can produce useful clarifications, similar to the nine errors identified by the British High Court in Al Gores propaganda film, An Inconvenient Truth."
## [4422] "In my own country, The Netherlands, for instance, it has even received some official recognition, thus dissolving the information monopoly of climate alarmists. The Standing Committee on Environment of the Lower House even organized a one-day hearing, where both climate chaos adherents and disaster skeptics could freely discuss their different views before key parliamentarians who decide climate policy."
## [4423] "Esper uses a method aimed at retaining long-period (greater than a century or so) variations in the tree-ring records, whereas Mann uses a method that virtually eliminates all long-term variation."
## [4424] "A virtual Green Army has been deliberately deceiving and misleading the citizens of planet Earth for four and a half decades."
## [4425] "One problem is that we really don?t know how much cooling is exerted by sulfates, or whether they are just a convenient explanation for the failure of the forecasts of dramatic warming. The United Nations? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which grants itself climate authority, states that our ?Level of Scientific Understanding? of the effects range between ?low? and ?very low,? with a possible cooling between zero (none) and a whopping 3.5 degrees (C) when the climate comes to equilibrium (which it will never do). That?s a plenty large range from which to pick out a number to cancel about as much warming as you?d like."
## [4426] "Finally, does anyone else think that averaging high mountain tundra temperature anomalies with lowland plains anomalies, in order to adjust foothills anomalies, is a method that might work but that it definitely would take careful watching and strict quality control?"
## [4427] "Many bloggers instantly denounced Cullen for proposing to decertify meteorologists who don't espouse global warming alarmism. She denied doing any such thing, and if we consider only the letter of her remarks, that is correct."
## [4428] "An excellent example of how the aristocracy rules the realm is the global warming issue. All the money, profit, power, and prestige are on the side of the alarmists, and they wield their power ruthlessly, blatantly throwing their weight around in silencing those who try to tell the truth about the science of climate change. Al Gore is a multimillionaire who knows nothing about science, whereas S. Fred Singer is a brilliant scientist who continually endures a firestorm of slanders and harassment for trying to uphold scientific standards. These two men encapsulate the opposing forces of the aristocracy and the productive class."
## [4429] "All 16 models examined have the same fatal flaw: They predict rain too easily, by artificially elevating air and water masses in the atmosphere."
## [4430] "I'm less convinced that we know enough to quantify how much humans have contributed to the warming, via which activities, or how much change we could avert by modifying those activities."
## [4431] "Hansen is the politicized NASA climate scientist who virtually invented the global warming issue in the broiling summer of 1988 when he was the star doomsayer at Senate hearings called by Al Gore."
## [4432] "Congressional committees and our next President must subject secret data, computer codes, models, and studies to full review by independent experts to determine which assertions, policies, and regulations are reasonable and legitimate, and which are based on serious error, deceptive claims, or outright fraud."
## [4433] "This regression produces a global warming signal which is about half of that predicted by the global warming models. The F statistic at 4,308 passes a 99.9% confidence interval."
## [4434] "Oh Dear! So a long term declining trend was removed before Mann merged ? That sounds like a very serious issue in the Mann hockey stick, and Keith is not keen on recognizing it I think I like this Esper guy. Truth first, consequences to be accepted."
## [4435] "1) Climate models overwhelming expected much more warming to have taken place over the past several decades than actually occurred; and"
## [4436] "A book that raised hackles and experienced personal attacks from the environmentalists was Bjorn Lomborg?s The Skeptical Environmentalist. UN IPCC chief, Rajendra Pachauri, compared him to Hitler. It is typical of Pachauri?s lack of understanding and undiplomatic reactions, but he wasn?t alone. Almost everyone, including most skeptics, misunderstood what Lomborg was saying, especially about climate. People on both sides of the climate issue were fooled by Lomborg?s use of ?skeptic? in his title. Too many people designated climate skeptics by the warming alarmists and those questioning extreme environmentalism were desperate for a public relations victory."
## [4437] "The two graphs below show what temperatures used to look like in the US and Iceland, before they were tampered with at GISS. The 1930s was the hottest decade, and temperatures were declining. This disprovedHansenstheories, so he had to get rid of the graphs."
## [4438] "A review of those articles shows that the vast majority of them were written by Romm. In reply to Romm's increasingly shrill attacks, Pielke was civil, even gentlemanly. In 2010, Pielke challenged Romm to a public debate in Romm's hometown, at a date and venue of his choosing offering to contribute up to $10,000 to the winner's favorite charity. Romm, to his eternal discredit, refused. Furthermore, on his blog, Romm routinely deleted comments he didn't like, including those that called him out for ducking Pielke's challenge to debate."
## [4439] "Global warming theory proponents have ,resorted to the politics of fear to drive their point home. They argue that man-made greenhouse gases are already causing the world's glaciers to melt, causing sea levels to rise and threatening humanity with a multitude of economic and environmental calamities. A recent Smithsonian Institution exhibit on climate change, for instance, included a depiction of the Washington Monument partially submerged in the Atlantic Ocean, leaving visitors with the distinct impression that we must reduce greenhouse gas emissions now if we want our descendants to be able to visit the famous monument. But such scenarios belong in the realm of science fiction, not science fact."
## [4440] "The emails which are now public reveal that Mr Holland??s requests under the Freedom of Information Act were not dealt with as they should have been under the legislation. Section 77 of the Freedom of Information Act makes it an offence for public authorities to act so as to prevent intentionally the disclosure of requested information. Mr Holland??s FOI requests were submitted in 2007/8, but it has only recently come to light that they were not dealt with in accordance with the Act."
## [4441] "Instead, the evidence now points to the IPCC and its Climategate scientists conspiring to mislead. Thankfully, the vast majority of the world's scientists do not believe in the IPCC's climate political-science proclamations and thus continue performing/producing empirical research to determine the science truth."
## [4442] "Continuing, Trenberth states that ???confidence in model results for changes in extremes is tempered by the large scatter among the extremes in modeling today??s climate, especially in the tropics and subtropics (Kharin et al ., 2007), which relates to poor depiction of transient tropical disturbances, including easterly waves, Madden-Julian Oscillations, tropical storms, and hurricanes (Lin et al ., 2006).?? These phenomena, in his words, ???are very resolution dependent, but also depend on parameterizations of sub-grid-scale convection, the shortcomings of which are revealed in diurnal cycle simulations,?? wherein ???models produce precipitation that is too frequent and with insufficient intensity (Yang and Slingo, 2001; Trenberth et al ., 2003; Dai and Trenberth, 2004; Dai, 2006).??"
## [4443] "Once this global network has declared an issue to be of paramount importance climate change being the most prominent current example it can team up with elements of the global business community, eager to take advantage of whatever regulations, subsidies, and other measures are adopted to promote the latest fad. The result is the rise of a formidable coalition of power-hungry regulatory bureaucrats and rent-seeking companies, working with, and often funding, friendly non-governmental organizations (NGOs) for the purpose of transforming the world to suit their interests."
## [4444] "Again, the solid red lines are the observations of cloud radiative effect. CM2 looks ???decent?? for the net effect, but it only gets a decent estimate because it underestimates the short wave radiation (by up to 70W / m2) and overestimates the longwave radiation. HadGem is ???less awful??."
## [4445] "In other words, if you are a scientist funded by global warming research money, you make up whatever lie best suits your current funding requirements."
## [4446] "The Heartland affair has shown not merely that some climate alarmists (namely Gleick) will stoop to outright deception, and most of his peers will close ranks to defend him in a sort of Green Wall of Silence. Perhaps more disturbing, it reveals that these people really have no idea how their opponents on the climate issue actually view the world. So when they dismiss skeptics as having no legitimate arguments, it should make outsiders take pause."
## [4447] "There??s some very very curious relationships between Rutherford et al. and MM03. Rutherford et al. was submitted to Journal of Climate on July 23, 2003, at around the same time as MM03. As outlined below, I??ll bet dollars to doughnuts that the file \"pcproxy.txt\", the file at Mann??s FTP site (in Rutherford??s subdirectory) to which we were directed and now supposedly the \"wrong file\", was used in the original submission of Rutherford, Mann et al. and was fixed up after MM03 pointed out problems with it."
## [4448] "CRU still wants scientists to trust its conclusions on which even more climatology is based although it now admits that during an office move, it discarded computer tapes and paper records containing years of original weather-station observations. This is like telling an IRS auditor, Just read my tax return; I chucked my receipts. Proper science relies on generating reproducible results. Since these climate data now likely are locked in a landfill, CRUs results are, by definition, irreproducible. This means, ipso facto , they are non-scientific."
## [4449] "Current climate models tend to underestimate the occurrence of the clouds ICECAPS researchers found, limiting those models?? ability to predict cloud response to Arctic climate change and possible feedback like spiking rates of ice melt."
## [4450] "ENVIRONMENTAL campaigner Rebecca Phyland has been educating the south-west about climate change and now shes taking her message to the world."
## [4451] "In any event, Gummer is being disingenuous as the whole global warming scare was based on 17 years of warming. I dont recall him suggesting at the time that we wait another 13 years before jumping to conclusions."
## [4452] "Kevin Trenberth is head of the large US National Centre for Atmospheric Research and one of the advisory high priests of the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)."
## [4453] "True, methane concentration has not risen as predicted in 1990 (Fig. T4), for methane emissions, though largely uncontrolled, are simply not rising as the models had predicted, and the predictions were extravagantly baseless."
## [4454] "The conclusion is inescapable: The U.S. temperature record is unreliable. The errors in the record exceed by a wide margin the purported rise in temperature of 0.7C (about 1.2F) during the twentieth century."
## [4455] "Read here . The global warming scientists, major climate research centers, the IPCC, environmental NGOs, and global warming activists and pundits have all claimed that the \"robust & rigorous\" climate models prove that when human CO2 increases, then global atmospheric temperatures will have to increase, which will then cause surface water evaporation to increase, that subsequently causes water vapor in the atmosphere to increase, which finally sets in motion a positive feedback system that causes all the previous items to even increase more, ad nauseum. Unfortunately, the \"expert\" climate scientists are now discovering those models might not have it quite right, since atmospheric water vapor is doing the exact opposite of what the climate models predicted! Gee, what a surprise . \"Current climate models do a remarkable job on water vapor near"
## [4456] "The results just presented beg the following question: If the satellite data indicate an insensitive climate system, why do the climate models suggest just the opposite? I believe the answer is due to a misinterpretation of cloud behavior by climate modelers."
## [4457] "In May, 2012 at WUWT, Paul Homewood led an interesting discussion on whether sea level rise accelerated during the recent decades when compared to the 20th century. He concludes that satellite measurements may be flawed."
## [4458] "This fraud is nothing new for them, as they have been altering their own data for decades to create the impression of imaginary global warming. They have doubled 1880-1980 warming since Hansen 1981."
## [4459] "The hockey-stick graph usurped the traditional, apolitical climate graph of Earths recent temperature changes. The traditional graph showed dramatic warming during a medieval warm period (about 950 to 1250 A.D.) and distinct cooling during a little ice age (about 1400 to 1850 A.D.). However, the hockey-stick shaped graph displayed temperatures over the past several hundred years fluctuating only a little from year to year (the relatively flat handle of the hockey stick) until the 1900s when the temperatures began to rise dramatically (the blade of the stick). This graph helped to convince many in government that human carbon emissions were behind an unprecedented increase in global temperatures and that drastic, immediate action was necessary to once again save the planet. The graphs construction was challenged by scientists and statisticians who had a very different and also valid view of climate data selection and analysis."
## [4460] "The authors report that \"observed CAPE has mostly statistically significant positive trends over the period of 1958-1997 in the tropics, yet a modern climate model is not able to reproduce these trends.\" They thus state, in an implied challenge to climate modelers to correct this situation, that \"ensuring future models can faithfully reproduce such trends is perhaps quite important for enhancing confidence in model predictions of future climate changes.\""
## [4461] "3. Why the hell did you wait 10 years to release the data? You did yourself no favors by deferring reasonable requests to archive data to enable replication. It was only when you became backed into a corner by The Royal Society that you made the data available. Your delays and roadblocks (such as providing an antique data format of the punched card era), plus refusing to provide metadata says more about your integrity than the data itself. Your actions make it appear that you did not want to release the data at all. Your actions are not consistent with the actions of the vast majority of scientists worldwide when asked for data for replication purposes. Making data available on paper publication for replication is the basis of proper science, which is why The Royal Society called you to task."
## [4462] "And the differences between the observations-mean and the forcings-driven multi-model mean do not get any better in the Southern Hemisphere (Figures 10, 11, and 12) during the early warming and cooling epochs. The plus for the Southern Hemisphere: the late warming period started about a decade earlier, so the model and observed Sea Surface Temperature trends in the Southern Hemisphere align for a little longer."
## [4463] "In Canada*, Steve McIntyre, the mathematician who bit by bit exposed the shocking story of the hockey stick and runs climateaudit.org."
## [4464] "It is also possible that the institutional innovation that has been the I.P.C.C. has run its course. Yes, there will be an AR5 but for what purpose? The I.P.C.C. itself, through its structural tendency to politicize climate change science, has perhaps helped to foster a more authoritarian and exclusive form of knowledge production ."
## [4465] "Are your tax dollars helping hide global warming data from the public? Internal emails leaked as part of Climategate 2.0 indicate the answer may be Yes."
## [4466] "Their laughable answer: 95% of climate models agree; therefore the observations must be wrong! One can only shake ones head sadly at such a display of science."
## [4467] "Therefore, webeing McGoo and Ihave totaled the nominating votes and declare Real Climate a Best Religious Blog Weblog Award Finalist for 2009."
## [4468] "Climate models, unfortunately, are still unable to provide skillful predictions of changes in regional climate statistics on multi-decadal time scales at the detail desired by the impacts communities. Even on the global scale, the annual, global-averaged radiative forcing predicted by the models is significantly greater than has been observed based on the accumulation of Joules in the climate system. The summer arctic sea ice extent, in contrast, has been significantly under predicted by the models, while the summer Antarctic sea ice extent increase has been missed by the models. Also attribution of specific extreme weather events to multi-decadal changes in climate has not yet been shown, and is likely not even possible."
## [4469] "I??ve plotted the actual differences between the two series below (for whatever that??s worth) together with a 50-year smooth. I wouldn??t characterize this plot as showing a discrepancy arising in the 19th century and then leveling off in the 20th century. On the right, I??ve limited the plot to the period of the actual Jacoby-D??Arrigo chronology 1601-1980, to minimize the rhetorical effect of the 15th century where there are only 1-2 trees involved. In this case, one would surely characterize the plots not as showing remarkable similarity prior to 1800, but as the bristlecone PC1 gaining relative to the Jacoby reconstruction, with the relative gain reversed only during the HS-pulse of the Jacoby series in the early 20th century."
## [4470] "With such discrepancies as these existing among real-world reconstructions of the effects of mean global temperature on the ratio of El Ni?os to La Ni?as, it would appear that we don't even have the means for determining which of the similarly-divergent scenarios of current state-of-the-art climate model simulations is correct, or how close or how far from reality they each may be, which surely does not make for a solid foundation for divining what a future warmer world might be like with respect to \"the leading mode of interannual climate variability in the global climate system,\" which sure sounds like something one would want to get right. References"
## [4471] "he Climategate Emails describe how a small band of climatologists cooked the books to make the last century seem dangerously warm."
## [4472] "2) His apocalyptic predictions are all based on climate models, which have consistently failed to match up with real world observations."
## [4473] "A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research illustrates the ' travesty 'of relying on climate computer model projections, finding 19 different models had 'no model consensus' and a 'large spread' ' with both large positive and negative anomalies' in projections of future Australian tropical climate. Furthermore, the authors conclude that since model projections are all over the map, that indicates there is \"large internal or natural variability in tropical Australian precipitation relative to the climate change signal\" ."
## [4474] "Two of catastrophic climate change's staunchest supporters have been out on the stump promoting their causewith conflicting statements."
## [4475] "Global Warming's \"hockey-stick\" graph, believed to be one of the leading indicators of global warming, is now being called \"rubbish.\" Scientists have shown that the graph's underlying equation would generate the same result for any series of random numbers."
## [4476] "The Readfearn reasoning amounts to saying that Newman is either wrong because he is an old white guy (let??s be ageist, sexist and rascist eh?), or he is wrong because he cited Roy Spencer who is wrong because he??s a Christian. Thus and verily, ergo, ergot and a truffle too, climate sensitivity on Planet Earth is 3.3 degrees C."
## [4477] "In my previous role as an investment manager, we also used computers to predict probability of profits and losses. Just as these models failed to predict the global financial meltdown we are currently experiencing, the carbonistas computer generated models have not been able to predict or explain the climate we have experienced over the past decade or so."
## [4478] "Today I present a clear example of the use of the National Academy of Sciences to promote a particular set of policy actions, where climate science,as percievedby the authors of the PNAS,is used as the reasoning."
## [4479] "The models attempt to simulate a three-dimensional atmosphere, but there is virtually no data above the surface. The modelers think we are foolish enough to believe the argument that more layers in the model will solve the problem, but it doesn??t matter if you have no data."
## [4480] "The authors write that \"climate change is likely to produce more extreme precipitation events,\" citing Allan and Soden (2008); and they say that \"for the Mediterranean basin, several studies indicate a possible amplification of precipitation extremes associated with a decrease of precipitation totals (Gao et al ., 2006; Giorgi and Lionello, 2008),\" which \"could lead to an increased probability of occurrence of events inducing both floods and droughts (Gao et al ., 2006).\" So what has happened in this regard over the past half-century, in response to the supposedly unprecedented global warming that climate alarmists contend has occurred as a result of steadily rising anthropogenic CO 2 emissions?"
## [4481] "Here's a reality check: During the same decade that Mr. Gore and the IPCC dominated the environmental debate, global carbon-dioxide emissions rose by 28.5%."
## [4482] "They note: \"As has been acknowledged by numerous scientists, the engine intake data are clearly contaminated by heat conduction from the structure, and as such, never intended for scientific use.\""
## [4483] "The video was based on an approach pioneered by Lean and Rind (2008) and Foster and Rahmstorf (2011), by determining the contribution of known influences on global temperature to best explain those temperatures. However this approach can give misleading results if significant influences on temperature are missing from the analysis, or if wrong influences are included."
## [4484] "We??ve noted that Briffa??s gridded MXD has high correlations to temperature, much higher than run-of-mill proxies. We??ve also noted that Mann (like Briffa) truncated this data at 1960 because of divergence. At the time that Mann et al 2008, the gridded MXD data was not available anywhere ??? Mann cited a webpage as follows:"
## [4485] "Modern-day Chicken Littles would like you to believe that the sky is falling - or, more precisely, that the atmosphere is dangerously overheating. But they are wrong. The steady stream of scary sceanarios about global warming and its supposed cataclysmic consequences hasn't abated."
## [4486] "So there you have it: One of Podesta's highest-profile operatives is bragging to one of America's richest climate activists that he and his team have silenced a prominent academic for the sin of disagreeing with Mann and other climatologists."
## [4487] "Above I summarized the countries for which there are stations that are not matched at GHCN. Remarkably, these include virtually none of the countries where Jones said that they had received data subject to confidentiality agreements ??? so that the confidentiality agreement excuse cannot apply for any of these countries. And for each of the countries for which Jones said that there was a confidentiality agreement (Bahrain, Oman, Algeria, Japan, Slovakia, Mali, India, Pakistan, Poland, Indonesia, Zaire and Sudan), I was able to cross-identify all CRU stations with GHCN identifications so that the confidentiality excuse didn??t affect anything."
## [4488] "Next time modelers tell us that they can??t produce the modern warm period without a major effect from CO2, just smile and remind them that their models don??t include solar magnetic effects, nor any potential lunar forcing, so it??s not surprising that they can??t predict our climate."
## [4489] "I do completely agree with you that the models are very valuable to inform us on climate processes (e.g. the Hadley cell, ITCZ, etc). However, this does not mean they can skillfully predict the multi-decadal changes in these features. That is climate prediction and it must be validated against real-world data."
## [4490] "NOAA and the other ground based data centers would have more credibility if one of the changes resulting in a reduction of the warming trend and not an exaggeration which has been the case each time."
## [4491] "Its an anti-science position. The surveys he quotes are ones like Anderegg , and Doran and Zimmerman . The latter was a two minute survey sent to 10,257 scientists, but the figure of 97% of climate scientists only came from 75 of those people. Comments from scientists outside the 75 are scathing at times. The former study (Anderegg) was a blacklist of scientists, is useless for understanding feedbacks, though works as a proxy for government funding: it shows that more funding of one side of the debate means more papers published from that point of view. To complete the trifecta of trivia, he also quotes Oreskes , whose work was equivalent to a google search on words. Again, confused researchers study proxies for grants instead of proxies for temperature."
## [4492] "None of these things are consistent with hottest year ever. NASA has known for decades that satellite data is more accurate, and their current willful ignorance of their own satellite temperatures, indicates that they are engaged in propaganda, not science."
## [4493] "This entire report assumes global warming to exist, assumes it is man-made, and assumes its future levels are as large or larger than those projected in the last IPCC report. The first four or five pages merely restate this finding with no new evidence. The majority of the report then takes this assumption, cranks it through various models, and generates scary potential scenarios about the US and it would be like if temperatures really rose 11F over the next century."
## [4494] "In order to demonstrate that the increase in temperatures since the mid 1950s is not due to random fluctuations, it is necessary to do valid statistical analysis of the temperatures. The BEST team has not done such."
## [4495] "This claim is already hotly disputed. US climate expert Professor Judith Curry said last night: In fact, the uncertainty is getting bigger. Its now clear the models are way too sensitive to carbon dioxide. I cannot see any basis for the IPCC increasing its confidence level."
## [4496] "Over the last 15 years, we've been told that human CO2 emissions would cause global warming to accelerate to new dangerous levels, and this \"unequivocal\" warming would generate fantastic, catastrophic climate change disasters - the IPCC's climate models told us this, and truth be told, they were absolutely and spectacularly wrong"
## [4497] "These contradictions and mysteries mark NIWAs latest attempt to hoodwink the public over the national temperature record."
## [4498] "Despite relatively little centennial variability, Briffas reconstruction had a noticeable decline in the late 20th century, despite warmer temperatures. In these early articles , the decline was not hidden."
## [4499] "One of the numerous Goebbelian propaganda artifices deployed by the now-retreating climate extremist movement has been the careful avoidance of any debate with anyone on the skeptical side of the case who happens to know anything about climate science or economics."
## [4500] "Should Michael Manns infamous 1,000-year temperature reconstruction look less like a hockey stick and more like a city skyline? New research on natural climate variability suggests that may in fact be the case."
## [4501] "Global Warming Alarmist Rhetoric, Propaganda and Dishonesty Heats Up in Paris"
## [4502] "To sum up: the precise values of the CO2 radiative forcing, the Planck parameter, and all five relevant temperature feedbacks are unmeasured and unmeasurable, unknown and unknowable. The feedbacks are particularly uncertain, and may well be somewhat net-negative rather than strongly net-positive: yet the IPCCs error-bars suggest, quite falsely, that they are known to an extraordinary precision."
## [4503] "Lindzen-Choi ?Special Treatment?: Is Peer Review Biased Against Nonalarmist Climate Science?"
## [4504] "To me, that??s the Occam??s Razor explanation of why, after thirty years, millions of dollars, millions of man-hours, and millions of lines of code, the computer models have not improved the estimation of ???climate sensitivity?? in the slightest. They do not contain or model any of the emergent phenomena that govern the climate , the phenomena that decouple the temperature from the forcing and render the entire idea of ???climate sensitivity?? meaningless."
## [4505] "NASA is constantly tampering with their data to cool the past and warm the present in order to make the hiatus disappear."
## [4506] "And then RSS present three model-data comparisons that show the models failing to simulate lower troposphere temperatures globally and in the tropics and that only Arctic lower troposphere temperatures are warming as predicted by models."
## [4507] "\"The certainty among many scientists that humans are the main cause of climate change, including global warming, is not based on the replication of observable events. It is based on just two things, the theoretical effect of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, predominantly carbon dioxide, and the predictions of computer models using those theoretical calculations. There is no scientific \"proof\" at all.\""
## [4508] "The BBC is a bubble. Its broadcasting departments are bubbles. The scientific establishment is a bubble. Perspectives from without the bubble are met with ire much like Robertss and Nurses: challenges to the authority and the claims of the establishment are met with derision, the critics belittled as anti-science. Like the phenomenon of environmental journalism, the BBCs science output is scripted and filmed inside the bubble. To the extent that there is communication with the world outside the bubble, science is prescriptive of how the world should be, rather than a description of how the material world is."
## [4509] "Of course, the warmists early on coined the term deniers, associated sceptics with death trains, accused them of genocide, threatened them with war crimes tribunals and produced a video showing even children being blown to pieces if they doubted dangerous man-made climate change."
## [4510] "The warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report is equivalent to 1.1 C per century. The IPCC had predicted two and a half times as much."
## [4511] "Nonetheless, as Christy points out, thetropical troposphere isthe portion of the atmosphere where models project a highly consistent and significant warming response to rising CO2 concentrations. If the models do not show a discernible human influence in the tropical troposphere, how can they show that more than half the warming is anthropogenic for the planet as a whole?"
## [4512] "So to say there is a consensus about some global warming is true; to say there is a consensus about dangerous global warming is false."
## [4513] "Read here . Recently, NASA's James Hansen rounded up some exceptionally gullible and dim-witted teenagers to do legal battle for him in court . Hansen speculates that human CO2 increases will raise global temperatures so much that positive feedbacks occur causing a runaway global warming \"tipping point.\""
## [4514] "UPDATE: The Australian groupthink machine (otherwise known as the ABC) desperately tries to find an alarmist story to keep Durban relevant and the Cause alive despite all the collapsing wreckage of climate hysteria strewn around them."
## [4515] "According to a paper in the journal Geophysical Research Letters ice melting in the Arctic Ocean will cause a large decline in winter rain and snowpack in California, resulting in future water shortages. These results were based solely on the output of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's climate model. Unfortunately, the authors of that research didn't check their modeled results against actual data. If they had, they would have found that there is no correlation between the amount of Arctic sea ice and winter precipitation in the western U.S. In fact, even as global-average surface temperatures have risen during the last few decades, U.S. precipitation has been rising as well."
## [4516] "How can climate scientists/modelers hope to simulate the patterns of warming on land when they cant simulate the warming patterns of the largest ocean on this planet?"
## [4517] "Rather than re-examining the climate data and concluding there really isnt an imminent catastrophe coming, the alarmists still continue to insist its real and are now coming togetherto produce positive visions in group therapy a sort of Alarmists Anonymous . The TAZ quotes psychologist Gerd Weling of the Transition Town Bielefeld:"
## [4518] "Mr. Chairman, Kyoto apologists would have us believe that the \"consensus of scientists\" has spoken, that global warming poses a \"mortal threat\" to human life,7 and that we must therefore waste no time making preparations and plans to de-carbonize the U.S. and other national economies. In reality, the case for an international climate treaty rests on an ensemble of hypotheses that are highly questionable."
## [4519] "How is it that the IPCC's numbers show a nice clear \"hockey-stick\" warming trend where other research shows the world getting colder? Prof. Phil Jones succinctly explains in one of the leaked emails:"
## [4520] "SCIENTISTS at the University of East Anglia (UEA) have admitted throwing away much of the raw temperature data on which their predictions of global warming are based."
## [4521] "* Continuing scientific dispute exists over whether observations are confirming or disconfirming key short-run predictions of climate models ??? such as an increase in tropospheric water vapor and an increase in tropical tropospheric surface temperatures relative to tropical surface temperatures;"
## [4522] "Unfortunately, many media representatives have been unable to depart from their long-loved climate catastrophe. Catastrophes are interesting for readers, viewers and audiences, and they boost ratings and circulation. How on earth would the otherwise empty pages and radio shows be filled if the catastrophe disappeared? As we have been able to show in numerous analyses of recent media reports on the topicof climate at this blog, media reporting is often one-sided, tends to be and is even at times plainly false."
## [4523] "After a comprehensive examination of the peer-reviewed literature, the author concludes that there is a tendentious use of evidence by the IPCC, revealing \"a systematic tendency of the climate establishment to engage in a variety of stylized rhetorical techniques that seem to oversell what is actually known about climate change while concealing fundamental uncertainties and open questions regarding many of the key processes involved in climate change\" (1)."
## [4524] "Most research on the effects of ocean acidification are flawed according to a Nature article. But we still believe the evidence? From Nature, Crucial ocean-acidification models come up short"
## [4525] "I can see weather each day, but Smithsonian scientists seem to have the unique ability to see climate change. I like the Smithsonian when it sticks to its purpose as a natural history museum. But, with the government dumping billions into climate change and each element of the government coming up with its own climate agenda, what can you expect? You expand climate change outside just science and get on with the propaganda."
## [4526] "Yet Hansen's not even close to being an objective scientist. He is openly ideological and rabidly partisan. His political pals and financial patrons are liberal Democrats -- Gore, John Kerry and left-wing groups funded by George Soros and Teresa Heinz."
## [4527] "Why were so many thermometers believed to be overestimating temperatures in the first half of the 1900?? s?"
## [4528] "Tropospheric water vapor has been on a long-term declining trend, and is the source of all stratospheric water vapor as noted by Dessler above. However, if tropospheric water vapor has declined, how could stratospheric water vapor increase 1980-2000 according to Solomon, or have a \"long-term increase\" according to the IPCC, or have no long-term trend according to Dessler?"
## [4529] "Delegates to the UN climate talks in Bonn entered their plenary session today holding indulgences absolving them of their carbon sins. Gaia the earth goddess, wearing her trademark green frock and crown of leaves welcomed the delegates and bestowed her indulgences."
## [4530] "I have never been a climate change skeptic and until the release of emails from UEA/CRU I had paid little attention to the science surrounding it."
## [4531] "While as process studies, there is merit in this research, but to transfer the results as skillful projections to policymakers is inappropriate and misleading. Now only is there no value added in regional downscaling of mult-decadal projections beyond what can be achieved by just interpolating downscale a global model to finer scale surface terrain information , the global models themselves have not demonstrated skill at accurately predicting historic changes in the global climate."
## [4532] "On August 23, 2006, Mr. Corcoran published an article in the National Post entitled Hockey sticks and hatchets: Inside the Globes 4,200-word hatchet job on climate skeptics. The article made a number of factual assertions about Dr. Weaver and noted, in 2004 , Dr. Weaver dismissed the original hockey-stick research debunking the 1,000-year claim as simply pure and unadulterated rubbish."
## [4533] "Andrew Montford: I think there??s absolutely no doubt that there was no conspiracy. All the inquiries were deficient for their own reasons. So if I was running the country there would be a public inquiry into Climategate because the people who have been tasked with investigating it have failed to do so."
## [4534] "This year it is hot in Texas and cold in Vancouver, and they are blaming that on global warming."
## [4535] "A crucial measure of our knowledge of feedbacks is climate sensitivitythat is, the warming induced by a hypothetical doubling of carbon-dioxide concentration. Today??s best estimate of the sensitivity (between 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit and 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit) is no different, and no more certain, than it was 30 years ago. And this is despite an heroic research effort costing billions of dollars."
## [4536] "By the time you get to trend lengths of 30 or so years, the observed trend is threatening the lower limit of the 95% confidence range of climate model expectations. Such mounting evidence begins to start to make you wonder whether there is some fundamental problem between climate models and reality."
## [4537] "There are now elements in the environmental movement who are so worried about the state of the planet that they have lost all sense of proportion. This is alarming for those at the receiving end of their mindless wrath. It does not help to protect the environment either. Just like Boko Haram does not endear anyone to Muslims, green radicals taint all environmentalists. But whereas Islamic leaders immediately distance themselves from any new outrage, environmental leaders pretend nothing happened."
## [4538] "This theory was used to make predictions by at least 73 computer models. Thirty years of observations has proven every prediction wrong. Therefore their theory is wrong. That is how science works."
## [4539] "To draw any conclusions about Arctic ice or temperatures, using data that begins at the coldest point of the cycle is utterly worthless and grossly misleading. But this is climate science we are talking about."
## [4540] "Just two weeks ago, however, Huntsman delivered the keynote address at the annual dinner of the Republicans for Environmental Protection, which my web site JunkScience.com, protested as RINOs for EPA Protection. REP, after all, has been defending the EPA in response to Congressional GOP efforts to rein in the out-of-control agency."
## [4541] "Even though this was merely a blog post, I provided all measurement data as used, together with code that, in a turnkey method, uploads the data as used and produces the chronology and graphics. The code shows the precise calculation for a an interested critic. The blog post included a graph of core counts, together with the computation. In contrast, no measurement data for the three chronologies of Briffa 2000 (Taimyr, Tornetrask, Yamal) was archived. Nor was it archived for Briffa et al 2008 until I convinced the journal to require it. New measurement data for Esper et al 2009, which addresses Siberia, is not archived. (I recently requested that it be archived, but have received no acknowledgement from either Esper or Hantemirov.)"
## [4542] "In an interview with The Washington Times on Monday, Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) announced he would probe whether the U.N.s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) cooked the science to make this thing look as if the science was settled, when all the time of course we knew it was not."
## [4543] "This is very simple: if the atmosphere increases its power output, which is exactly what happens if it increases in temperature since power emission goes as temperature to the fourth power, then for PSunto remain constant, PSurfmust decrease which means that the Earths surface must decrease in temperature. Note how different this ontological result is from the greenhouse alarmists botched equation we analyzed above its the exact opposite result."
## [4544] "No one knows exactly how much Earth??s climate will warm due to carbon emissions, but a new study this week suggests scientists?? best predictions about global warming might be incorrect. The study, which appears in Nature Geoscience , found that climate models explain only about half of the heating that occurred during a well-documented period of rapid global warming in Earth??s ancient past. The study, which was published online today, contains an analysis of published records from a period of rapid climatic warming about 55 million years ago known as the Palaeocene-Eocene thermal maximum, or PETM."
## [4545] "To me this indicates that people who do not have the faculties to care for themselves as responsible adults are particularly attracted to Green promises. Green sympathizers probably can be classified in 3 primary categories: 1) people who want to nanny and boss everyone around, 2) people who want to be nannied and bossed around, and 3) the many gullible who actually believe the climate catastrophe scam."
## [4546] "These uncertainties in modeling climate processes are many times larger than the 4 W/m2 input of energy resulting from a doubling of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. It is difficult to see how the climate impact of the 4 W/m2 can be accurately calculated in the face of such huge uncertainties. As a consequence, forecasts based on the computer simulations of climate may not even be meaningful at this time. A comparison of nearly all the most sophisticated climate models with actual measurements of current climate conditions found the models in error by about 100% in cloud cover, 50% in precipitation, and 30% in temperature change. In addition, even the best models give temperature change results differing from each other by a factor of two or more.20"
## [4547] "Then there was PachauriGate , showing that the man in charge of the IPCC was chairman of boards of companies that profit handsomely as the scare-factor is ramped up."
## [4548] "If these people were actual scientists, they would conclude that CO2 alarmism is a thing of the past."
## [4549] "Gore's message is being conveyed via so dull and didactic a presentation."
## [4550] "Last week we had quite a row about temperature and temperature adjustments in Wellington New Zealand . One of the stations cited was the Kelburn district of Wellington, NZ."
## [4551] "Paul Hudson, BBC Weather, 9 January 2010: Which begs other, rather important questions. Could the model, seemingly with an inability to predict colder seasons, have developed a warm bias, after such a long period of milder than average years? Experts I have spoken to tell me that this certainly is possible with such computer models. And if this is the case, what are the implications for the Hadley centre's predictions for future global temperatures? Could they be affected by such a warm bias? If global temperatures were to fall in years to come would the computer model be capable of forecasting this?"
## [4552] "Green alarmists' fervent efforts to demonize fossil fuels and impose carbon taxes or cap-and-trade have little to do with science. Affordable energy, the automobile, and the entrepreneurial ability to provide those innovations on a large scale have given us the freedom to live and work over much larger regions than in the past and have democratized privileges once reserved to the wealthy. Europe invented the automobile, but Henry Ford put the world on wheels!"
## [4553] "I was meaning to write about the cringe-inducing website called Skeptical Science and todays Revkins piece at dotEarth finally pushed me forward."
## [4554] "As Robin Pagnamenta, Energy Editor at The Times puts it, Government claims that Britain already supports nearly one million green-collar jobs have been exposed as a sham :"
## [4555] "Lord Monckton expressed climate change alarmism rather humorously. One hundred percent of scientists agree climate change is real. That is why we have weather forecasts. The climate has been changing for 4,567 million years since that first Tuesday on which the earliest wisps of the atmosphere formed. But less than a third of published climate scientists say they think global warming is man-made; only 0.3 percent of them think most of the past 50 years modest warming is our fault; and so far, no one seems to have asked them whether they think it is potentially catastrophic."
## [4556] "To do this, either past temperatures should be adjusted upwards, or current ones downwards. This would then offset the fact that, over the years, UHI has added a warming bias. But when we look at Reykjavik, we find that the opposite has occurred; past temperatures have been reduced instead of increased."
## [4557] "Phrased another way, manmade greenhouse gases in the climate models were expected to warm the surfaces of the global oceans at a rate of 0.16 deg C/decade for the past 32+ years, but the observed warming was only 0.08 deg C/decade. Thats an atrocious modeling effort. Now consider that this time period includes naturally occurring upswings in the surface temperatures of the North Atlantic and North Pacific (see the post here ) and youll begin to understand the full extent of the model failings."
## [4558] "Of nearly 12,000 abstracts analyzed, there were only 64 papers in category 1 (which explicitly endorsed man-made global warming). Of those only 41 (0.3%) actually endorsed the quantitative hypothesis as defined by Cook in the introduction. A third of the 64 papers did not belong."
## [4559] "Three themes are emerging from the newly released emails: (1) prominent scientists central to the global warming debate are taking measures to conceal rather than disseminate underlying data and discussions; (2) these scientists view global warming as a political cause rather than a balanced scientific inquiry and (3) many of these scientists frankly admit to each other that much of the science is weak and dependent on deliberate manipulation of facts and data."
## [4560] "An investigation of Australia's national science agency, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), and a review of their document titled \"The Science of Tackling Climate Change.\" Through the use of methodically solid data and sound analysis, this report finds CSIRO comments, behavior, and publications to be, on the topic of climate, unscientific and blatantly political, and thus, threaten Australia's national governance."
## [4561] "Nevertheless, nuclear power plants and big dams are negative symbols for the environmentalist ideologues, much like the wind turbines and solar panels are their positive symbols. All green people are obliged to worship the wind turbines and to criticize dams and nuclear power plants."
## [4562] "As a result of that press release, a Capital Weather Gang blog post by Andrew Freedman was dutifully dispatched as damage control, since we had inconveniently noted the continuing disagreement between climate models used to predict global warming and the satellite observations."
## [4563] "We know the US government uses sock-puppets, one fan of the Big Scare admitted to using spam bots to generate fake comments, and though I cant prove anything, there have been plenty of anonymous commenters here who returned with different names to write hate-filled messages with unsubstantiated insults. There was also even one commenter who wrote 440 comments on this blog under his real name, in business hours, from a government office."
## [4564] "Repeatedly throughout the past couple of decades, we've been pummeled with dire predictions and told \"time is short.\" In 1989, the UN predicted that \"Global warming would destroy entire nations by 2000.\" In 2007, we were told: \"Scientists believe we have less than 10 years to bring emissions under control to prevent a catastrophe.\" In 2008, Britain's Prince Charles said we only had 100 months left to solve the problem. Gore, in 2009, said: \"We have to do it this year.\""
## [4565] "It is appropriate that the theme of this year's conference was Reconsidering the Science and Economics, as much has happened since Heartland's Third International Conference on Climate Change held in Washington, D.C. in June of last year. Among the happenings: It was in November of last year that emails and other documents from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia revealed a pattern of mismanagement of temperature data, interference with peer review, and an effort to suppress academic debate on global warming (Climategate). In December of 2009, negotiations in Copenhagen, meant as a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, collapsed, leaving the world without a binding international agreement after Kyoto expires in 2012."
## [4566] "Last year was declared the warmest on record, but only by 0.05 degrees Celsius. Satellite temperature records, however, show that 2014 was at most the third warmest year on record 00 but it could be the sixth warmest as well."
## [4567] "Figure 9 compares the approximated HadCRUT4 land plus sea surface temperature data to the 4 RCP-based hindcasts from 1901 to 2006. The end date of 2006 is dictated by the HADSST3 data, which still (as of now) has not been brought up to date by the Hadley Centre. The models appear as though they are capable of reproducing the rate at which global temperatures warmed during the late warming period of 1976 to 2006, but it looks like they are still not capable of reproducing the rates at which global temperature anomalies warmed and cooled before that. Lets check."
## [4568] "They accomplished this through a spectacular hockey stick of adjustments, which increases post 2000 temperatures by more than one degree, and decreases pre-2000 temperatures by as much as two degrees."
## [4569] "One problem, McIntyre writes, is that Rahmstorfs and Manns results are not based onproxies for Atlantic current velocity, but on a network consisting of iffy proxy series which are statistically indistinguishable from white noise . McIntyre comments: Its hard to understand why anyone would seriously believe (let alone publish in peer reviewed literature) that Atlantic ocean currents could be reconstructed by such dreck.. .."
## [4570] "Yes, but not as much as you would think, or hope. More of the physics is now known, but it is impossible (see this review ) to completely insert this new physical understanding into the models. Many of the models subroutines are based on parameterizations , which are educated, but not infallible, guesses of how certain processes (like clouds) work. Other model components, such as how the atmosphere interacts with the ocean, land, and outer space, are increasingly crude approximations (the later, outer space, is related to orbital forcing, and is usually ignored). Other parts of the models are based on nothing more than assumptions of how the physics works in certain situations."
## [4571] "The 31-page summary for policymakers is based on a more technical 2,000-page analysis which will be issued at the same time. It also surprisingly reveals: IPCC scientists accept their forecast computers may have exaggerated the effect of increased carbon emissions on world temperatures and not taken enough notice of natural variability."
## [4572] "Computer models as proof? Thats an adventurous claim. Even the IPCC reminds us that computer models only depict scenarios and can never be used as proof. Not a good start."
## [4573] "Science: And that study has been debunked. The numerous attempts by meteorological agencies around the world to depress temperatures in the early 20 th century to make the centennial warming rate seem larger than it is have far outweighed any failure to measure temperature change in one tiny region of the planet."
## [4574] "Johnston is not attempting to arrive at a scientific conclusion regarding the global warming hypothesis. Rather, he is cross examining the \"established climate story\" by asking \"very tough questions, questions that force the expert to clarify the basis for his or her opinion, to explain her interpretation of the literature, and to account for any apparently conflicting literature that is not discussed in the expert report\" (6)."
## [4575] "The authors write that \"current state-of-the-art climate models fail to capture accurately the path of the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current,\" which model failure \"leads to a warm bias near the North American coast, where the modeled Gulf Stream separates from the coast further north, and a cold anomaly to the east of the Grand Banks of Newfoundland, where the North Atlantic Current remains too zonal.\""
## [4576] "Most climate model simulations show a larger warming in the tropical troposphere than is found in observational data sets (e.g., McKitrick et al., 2010; Santer et al., 2013)."
## [4577] "The warming trend at Rutherglenis essentially achieved by progressively dropping down the minimum temperatures starting in 1973 by 0.5 degree C. The amount by which the temperatures is adjusted down increases back through time to 1913 when there is a massive 1.8 degree Celsius difference between the recorded temperature and the homogenised value."
## [4578] "Just as in medieval times when the people were expected to (and often did) believe everything they were told by the priest, now we see that it is the scientist whose word is gospel. Even today panellists on programmes such as BBC Question Time who question climate change can be booed and jeered at by people who read scientific papers on the issue even less than illiterate medieval peasants read the Bible, at the time still un-translated from the Latin."
## [4579] "I had another interesting experience around the time my paper in Science was published. I received an astonishing email from a major researcher in the area of climate change. He said, ???We have to get rid of the Medieval Warm Period.??"
## [4580] "Voosen was correct in this. He took her supportive article and used it to question the premise of planetary overheating due to anthropogenic carbon dioxide additions. But he was wrong in saying she misinterpreted the comments he provided. Indeed, they demonstrate that the science of AGW is not settled, and the remaining questions of the power of CO2 are fundamental to whether we have a crisis of not."
## [4581] "Roys seminal contributionon this topicis that variations in cloud cover as a result of long-term temporal variability in atmospheric circulations can result in significantvariations in the global annual average top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance. Skeptical Science should recognize this scientific achievement, even though they disagree with his political views."
## [4582] "Recently a High Court judge in the UK listed nine of the 35 major scientific errors in Gore's movie, saying they must be corrected before innocent schoolchildren can be exposed to the movie. Gore's exaggeration of sea-level rise was one."
## [4583] "while most climate model simulations show low biases over Europe, inter-model variations in bias over Australia and Amazonia are considerable. Mehran et al."
## [4584] "So how do they create this fraud? They constantly cool the past and warm the present. All temperatures before 1967 have been cooled since their 2001 version, and all post-1967 years have been warmed. Based on the 1992 to 1998 inflation rate, it seems likely that 2014 is being inflated by several tenths of a degree relative to 1998, in the currentversion."
## [4585] "The result should be adjusted to allow for the finding in Michaels & McKitrick (2007) that urban heat island effects and other extraneous influences over the past 30 years have led to overestimation of the warming rate over land by as much as double. On the assumption that this bias may have existed since 1850, the true warming rate since then is equivalent to just 0.4 C (0.7 F) per century."
## [4586] "The unvalidated IPCC (including CSIRO)computer climate models that project significant human-caused warming in the future are faulty, with many known inadequacies; not surprisingly, therefore, these models have proved to be incorrect when compared with real-world temperature data;"
## [4587] "It is possible that the green alarmists may be correct that this recent drought and famine is exacerbated by man's emissions of greenhouse gases. But what is certain is that these same alarmists pushed a treaty which is causing death."
## [4588] "Once outcasts on the fringe of the scientific community, these individuals braved the ridicule of the self-appointed \"enlightened\" members of society to dismantle systematically the hockey sticks and other frauds crafted by leftists over the years."
## [4589] "Their land only temperature record has been tampered with for decades, and now shows twice as much 1880-1980 warming as it did in 1981."
## [4590] "However, after the Climategate dossier proved the existence of a Yamal-Urals regional chronology, the principal issue was the failure to use the Yamal-Urals regional chronology in Briffa et al 2008 or to otherwise report it (not a beauty contest between Yamal and Polar Urals). As noted above, CRU had noted their use of ???common high-frequency variability?? as their test whether to include data in a regional chronology. Polar Urals and Yamal have strong common high-frequency variability, expressed by Hantemirov and Shiyatov (2002) as follows:"
## [4591] "But, then, the IPCC itself said, in its 2001 report: ???In climate research and modelling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long-term prediction of future climate states is not possible.??(6)"
## [4592] "But what if the warming was caused by fewer clouds, rather than the fewer clouds being caused by warming? In other words, what if previous researchers have simply mixed up cause and effect when estimating cloud feedback?"
## [4593] "Within the green movement, Peter Gleick is a renowned environmental scientist specializing in the negative impact of global warming. He was elected to the National Academy of Sciences, co-founded the Pacific Institute, served as chairman of a task force on scientific ethics and integrity in the American Geophysical Union, and received a prestigious MacArthur Fellowship (aka genius grant) in anticipation of exceptional achievement in his field of research. Peter Gleick is also the self-admitted perpetrator of a recent fraud."
## [4594] "Probably no single issue damages the reputation of the climate science community more than the refusal to show the data that supports their work, even under an FOI request. The public believes that scientists who purport to be concerned about the future of the planet should not place their own financial interests, including future grants, ahead of this concern, particularly when their research has been done with public funds."
## [4595] "The monsoon 2010 was also predicted to be a normal monsoon by most climate models. In reality, the monsoon rains were deficient in June 2010 by 16% but later in July and early August heavy rains in the northwest led to massive flooding in Pakistan (August 2010) and also in thenearby Indian States of Punjab & Rajasthan. Overall, monsoon 2010 was declared a flood monsoon with about 110% of rains country-wide, while northwest regions received as much as 125% of normal rains."
## [4596] "The climate models can explain neither the past nor the present. It is far from obvious that policymakers should have faith in their predictions about the future."
## [4597] "This new scientific finding helps explain why the climate models have been such miserable failures regarding global warming predictions, as noted by these charts:"
## [4598] "The theory of ???Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming?? (CAGW) is based on a string of inferences that begins with the assumptions that carbon dioxide is a ???greenhouse gas?? and that we are slowly driving up the atmospheric concentration by burning fossil fuels. It is therefore claimed as self-evident that the Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) has already risen significantly and will continue to do so. Higher GAST is then presumed to lead to all sorts of negative consequences, especially Extreme Weather. They promote their ???Climate Models?? as a reliable way to predict the future climate. But these models dramatically fail basic verification tests. Nowhere do they admit to these well-known failures. Instead, we are led to believe that their climate models are close to perfection."
## [4599] "Yes, Hansen actually made these forecasts (degrees C) in the year 1988 . We should be baking already, and Manhattan should be drowning ."
## [4600] "Don't miss this Climate Skeptic post. Excerpt: This is a project my son did for Science Fair to measure the urban heat island effect in Phoenix. The project could also be called \"Disproving the IPCC is so easy, a child could do it.\" The IPCC claims that the urban heat island effect has a negligible impact, even on surface temperature stations located within urban areas. After seeing our data, this claim will be very hard to believe."
## [4601] "AGU 2014: Quantifying the Mismatch between Climate Projections and Observations"
## [4602] "Example: The climate scientists at the British Met Office. They have always issued false alarms, and today we can even say systematic false alarms. Of all the annual forecasts on global temperature made this century, 14 in total, the scientists have wound up landing above the actual value 13 times. Paul Hudson, climate and weather expert of the BBC , points this out."
## [4603] "Its wrong for a tax-paid scientist writing in a tax-supported publication to smear another scientist. Seeing such tactics used against a scientist of Seitzs caliber is clearly a warning to others who would consider opposing officially sanctioned science. Genuine science will suffer from this attempt to suppress dissent."
## [4604] "Even though it may seem that there is a whole range of institutions both here and overseas which bring together and support those who openly express doubts about the currently prevailing dogma of man-made global warming and who dare to criticize it, it apparently is still not enough. We are subject to a heavily biased and carefully organized propaganda and a serious and highly qualified forum here, on this side of the Atlantic, that would stand for rationality, objectivity and fairness in public policy discussion is more than needed. That is why I consider the launching of the foundation an important step in the right direction."
## [4605] "A similar abuse of the laws of physics is to be found in the arguments of creationists. Evolution cannot be true, they say, because it contradicts the law of entropy. Like them, environmentalists are resorting to the same tactic of hiding a political argument behind the authority of science. (Although of course, the creationists are hiding their own politics behind *bad* science.) So far, your argument boils down to the claim that the current scientific knowledge provides a comprehensive support of the environmentalist position. This is equivalent to the faith that you criticise Trotskyists for."
## [4606] "But that funding is only available to those who toe the consensus line that human activity is causing dangerous amounts of global warming. Telling the world that mankinds big climate break came when global temperatures were several degrees higher than today would needlessly put a paleoanthropologists academic and television career at risk."
## [4607] "The issue of where Sahel climate is going is contentious, Some models predict a wetter future; others, a drier one. They cannot all be right."
## [4608] "One factor is a form of loyalty to colleagues. Another, bearing in mind the singular nature of the funding source, is the need to eat. But mostly it gets back to the uncertainty of the science. The typical climate researcher is reluctant to go public with contrary opinion not backed by something very close to real proof.And there is very little real proof on either side of the climatechange story. Contrary opinion in an era where postmodern science is almost respectable can be dangerous to a research career."
## [4609] "Failure to take due account of relevant published work which documented the above lapses, while disregarding IPCC criteria for inclusion in the assessment process;"
## [4610] "No, it wasn't a conspiracy plotted by Big Oil or Republican operatives using mercenary hackers after all. And unless you happen to get all your news from the mainstream media, you will undoubtedly recognize that by \"Climategate\", I'm referring here to the thousands of leaked email communications between prominent international researchers within the U.K.'s University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU) network. That person (yes, single individual) has come forth to shed light on a real conspiracy one to spread false alarm about a concocted global warming crisis."
## [4611] "Bjorn Lomborg's ongoing publicity campaign for his new film makes it obvious that the fight against the delusion of dangerous man-made global warming remains an uphill struggle."
## [4612] "Dr Pearman referred to 95 and 99 percentiles as measures of the proof of an hypothesis in the same breathe claiming that that there was more than 90 percent proof that global warming is a consequence of greenhouse gas emission. Yet this 90 percent figure, sometimes used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is not from the testing of a falsifiable hypothesis but rather a political expression of the strength of opinion."
## [4613] "The trustworthiness of the scientific community's global warming data pool is being called into question as the scandal over climate data continues to unfold.The latest revelation came on Sunday with the publication of a report by The Sunday Times of London that scientists at the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit in the United Kingdom confessed to throwing out most of the raw temperature data on which the theory of global warming is founded.The discarded data isn't lost permanently, since archives exist in other locations, notably servers at the Global Historical Climatology Network. Yet CRU's actions make it more challenging for other scientists to cross-check the facts."
## [4614] "Wall Street Journal article A Reprieve From Climate Doom no reason not to disband the useless and harmful IPCC"
## [4615] "In contrast to the crazed, paranoid, lefty-loon rants of an obviously disturbed, anti-science journalist, what do actual scientists say about global warming....let's summarize with a favorite..."
## [4616] "The picture below is my UHImeasurementlocation. On a still clear night, temperatures are typically 5-10F cooler near the fire station on the right, than they are at the Safeway parking lot across the intersection (traffic light is inside the red circle.)"
## [4617] "Its like weather prediction for tomorrow; you only believe it when you get to tomorrow. Weather is very difficult to predict; climate involves weather plus all these other components of the climate system, ice, oceans, vegetation, soil etc . Why should we think we can do better with climate prediction than with weather prediction? To me its obvious, we cant!"
## [4618] "As one organisation after another jumps, or is pushed, into producing public assessments of the climate change issue, we see the same small group of activist-scientists in the background. We see them providing briefings to federal and state politicians. We see them as primary advisers to supposedly independent organisations such as the Australian Academy of Science. We see them involved in programs to introduce school children to the dangers of a carbon footprint. Generally we see them in what agricultural science used to call extension activities although in the case of climate change much of the extension effort is devoted to convincing the various audiences that there is indeed a problem worth doing something about."
## [4619] "Scott Armstrong of Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, has issued a public $20,000 challenge to Al Gore on the accuracy of climate forecasting. link"
## [4620] "However, any such survey would be of no more scientific value than that of Cook. As the planet continues to fail to warm at anything like the rate that the usual suspects have so confidently but unwisely over-predicted, it will eventually become apparent to all that science was not, is not, and will never be done by mere headcount."
## [4621] "When arguing for scenario (B)ullshit theyclaimthat CO2 emission trends have been reduced linear , but when it suits their needs they change thestoryto super exponential."
## [4622] "When confronted with themajor issues I havepresented, the Berkeley Earth, NASA and NOAA people demonstrate that their only interest is producing graphs showing warming while maintaining some appearance of plausible deniability."
## [4623] "Its very hard to overlook the fact that, over the past decade, climate models are simulating way too much warming and are diverging rapidly from reality."
## [4624] "His Holiness, the Green Pope (Al Gore) predicted that the Arctic see would be ice-free this year . The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also gives a lot of attention to the unprecedented melting of the North Pole."
## [4625] "As readers here know, the claims of statistical significance in the global temperature records are based on an assumption that the Earth's temperature can be approximated by the AR1 statistical model, an assumption that can apparently be readily shown to be incorrect. As Doug Keenan points out in an email, Slingo's final claim - that the overwhelming majority of leading climate scientists agree that the Earth is definitely warming - is 'technically true, but irrelevant if none of those scientists knows how to determine whether such warming is significant'."
## [4626] "We believe the Canadian public and government decision-makers need and deserve to hear the whole story concerning this very complex issue. It was only 30 years ago that many of todays global-warming alarmists were telling us that the world was in the midst of a global-cooling catastrophe. But the science continued to evolve, and still does, even though so many choose to ignore it when it does not fit with predetermined political agendas."
## [4627] "Professor Bengtssons resignation shows that the alleged consensus on dangerous global warming involves suppressing dissent by academic bullying. He emphasises that there is no consensus about how fast and how far greenhouse warming will go, let alone what can be done in response."
## [4628] "But it gets worse! On top of GHCN adjustments, GISS have substantially INCREASED the warming trend at Reykjavik for UHI, instead of REDUCING it. The Iceland Met confirm there have been no station changes etc that would justify this. But when I challenged Reto Ruedy, he was unable to explain it either."
## [4629] "Briffa and Osborn 1999 contain a number of sensible caveats about the Mann and other reconstructions, raising caution about the role of bristlecones ( the ???amplitude series relating to the first principal component of a group of high-elevation tree-ring chronologies in the western United States??) in the Mann reconstruction and readers are referred to the original here ."
## [4630] "* What does this mean? For two-thirds of the questions asked, scientific opinion is DEEPLY DIVIDED, and in half of those cases, most scientists DISAGREE with positions that are at the foundation of the alarmist case. There is certainly NO CONSENSUS on the science behind the global warming scare."
## [4631] "When the models have been tested by looking backwards and trying to reproduce past climate which we know, they fail miserably. The observed 20th-century temperature increase was 0.6 C. However, the UN climate models predict a 20th-century increase of 1.6 C to 3.75C more than 2.5 to 6.3 times the observed rate of change."
## [4632] "This claim, by the way, is already falling apart. As Steven McIntyre explains, one of the examples Mann cites is a British panel that did not actually investigate Mann?its focus was on the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit, the epicenter of \"Climategate\"?and in its announcement of its results criticized Mann's methods as \"inappropriate\" and his results as \"exaggerated.\" At the time, Mann felt so exonerated that he sent harassing e-mails to the scientist who made that remark, demanding a retraction and an apology. Mann then went on to tell the BBC that such a retraction was forthcoming. It wasn't. All of which tells you a great deal about Professor Mann's credibility."
## [4633] "But the public is being told otherwise by global-warming alarmists, who in recent years have tried to ramp up the fright factor of their message with claims that an increase in global temperatures will also result in a dramatic increase in heat-related deaths. This motive may have provided the impetus for recent reporting on the climate death map."
## [4634] "Hilariously, the Telegraph has published an article promoting Stephan Lewandowsky's \"conspiracy theorist\" paper - you know, the one that surveyed readers at all the main non-sceptic blogs and discovered that sceptics were all conspiracy theorists (see first comment here )."
## [4635] "ICSC chief science advisor, Professor Bob Carter of James Cook University in Queensland, Australia and author of the best selling book, Climate: the Counter Consensus explained, Science has yet to provide unambiguous evidence that problematic, or even measurable, human-caused global warming is occurring. The hypothesis of dangerous man-made climate change is based solely on computerized models that have repeatedly failed in practice in the real world."
## [4636] "In conclusion, I guess what surprised me the most was how stale the data was in GHCN v2. In answer to Willis?? FOI request, the University of East Anglia said that all the Jones station data was available online at GHCN v2. If that??s the case, is CRU also using stale station data? With so much stale data, I wonder how many series are actually driving the temperature results in this area."
## [4637] "The insights of these two scientists would seem to be unknown to far too many advocates of AGW/climate change who seem incapable of confronting anomalies spawned by increasing knowledge of phenomena like cloud cover, sun spots, and cosmic radiation."
## [4638] "So are todays temperatures unprecedented? Monckton talks about the Medieval Warm Period. The UN IPCC report of 1990 showed a clear Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and a Little Ice Age (LIA), but the IPCC 2001 report showed the Hockey Stick graph 6 times in colour with no MWP. So how was this achieved? Data showing a hockey stick shape from Sheep Mountain in California was given 390 times the weighting of the data Mayberry Slough in Arizona, which had a MWP."
## [4639] "Question 2 (for Times Colonist editor Lucinda Chodan): IPCC reports are subject to \"review by governments.\" This does not mean that government does what it wishes after the IPCC reports are published, as is proper; governments get to determine what the scientific results will be before they are published. In other words, the IPCC is subject to a political agenda. My question is: Would you agree to be the editor in chief of a newspaper that was subject to \"review by governments\"? Would you trust such a newspaper?"
## [4640] "Climate change lobby wants to kill free speech"
## [4641] "Rebuttal: Bob Tisdale shows how \"Forecast the Facts? Brad Johnson and now Dr. Heidi Cullen are fecklessly factless about ocean warming and the blizzard Dear Chicken Little: \"The Sky Is Falling (It's Snowing) But Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Off New England Are NOT Unusual'"
## [4642] "So, a few months ago a website called Scholars and Rogues published an incredibly lame attempt by Brian Angliss to show why nobody needed to read The Hockey Stick Illusion, citing the low number of emails that were leaked as evidence that we didn??t have enough evidence. When Steve Mosher pointed out that a crooked accountant probably had numerous accurate transactions to his credit, but that only one was needed to prove him criminal, Mr. Angliss and Scholars and Rogues sort of went away."
## [4643] "Hide the lies generated lawsuits between climate science believers (what kind of real science requires belief ?) and skeptics of dangerous man-made planetary warming along with ridiculous conspiracy theories such as Big Oil hired evil hackers in a plot to discredit angelic climate scientists."
## [4644] "Although he admitted Greenpeace had released inaccurate but alarming information, Leipold defended the organizations practice of emotionalizing issues in order to bring the public around to its way of thinking and alter public opinion."
## [4645] "The challenge to the IPCC community, now that their duplicity has been exposed, is to communicate to all of us why the peer-reviewedpapers thatwe documented, and that were available in time for the IPCC review process,were considered bad papers and thus ignored in the IPCC report. A balancedassessment would comment on these papers, and provide the reason they disagree with their results."
## [4646] "According to the temperature records kept by the UK Met Office (and other series are much the same), over the past 150 years (that is, from the very beginnings of the Industrial Revolution), mean global temperature has increased by a little under a degree centigrade according to the Met Office, 0.8C. This has happened in fits and starts, which are not fully understood. To begin with, to the extent that anyone noticed it, it was seen as a welcome and natural recovery from the rigours of the Little Ice Age. But the great bulk of it 0.5C out of the 0.8C occurred during the last quarter of the 20th century. It was then that global warming alarmism was born."
## [4647] "Australian Meteorologists Caught Fudging Temperature Measurements"
## [4648] "A new paper published in the Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres finds Arctic sea ice concentrations at the low of each summer are related to absorption of sunlight by cloud cover at the top of the atmosphere in early summer, a phenomenon \" not represented in most of current climate models.\""
## [4649] "Also, IPCC has no rules for data archiving and sharing. This resulted in Phil Jones not making his raw temperature data available, even when critics asked for this data via FOI requests. IPCC nevertheless uses these data as one of the basic pillars in their global warming edifice."
## [4650] "Downplaying the facts, EPA used the situation to stir concerns about the safety of natural gas development. The same is true of the agencys involvement in last months rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline"
## [4651] "One thing that helps explain some of this behavior is that there is a very strong social cost in academia to challenging global warming, so that even when findings in certain studies seem to undercut key pieces of the argument, the researches always add something like but of course this does not refute the basic theory of global warming at the end of the paper. In universities, being identified as having criticized catastrophic man-made global warming theory is sort of like standing up in a Harvard faculty meeting and announcing that one is a devout Baptist and a Sarah Palin supporter. So on the flip side, publicly declaring for climate catastrophe is a badge of honor and sophistication."
## [4652] "Of course he??s not fooling anyone who knows what he actually said. Add that lack of warming does have to do with the state of global warming, and most knowledgeable people will grant Trenberth the benefit of the doubt, but should they? Ignorant people will be fooled, and Trenberth has a habit of misleading the ignorant."
## [4653] "To fill in the huge gaps, those compiling the records have resorted to computerised infilling or homogenising, whereby the higher temperatures recorded by the remaining stations are projected out to vast surrounding areas (Giss allows single stations to give a reading covering 1.6 million square miles). This alone contributed to the sharp temperature rise shown in the years after 1990."
## [4654] "Even today,calling anthropogenic global warminga??fact?????meaning conclusively demonstrated ???would still be an exaggeration."
## [4655] "ONE of the numerous propaganda artifices deployed by the now-retreating climate-extremist movement has been the careful avoidance of any debate with anyone on the skeptical side of the case who happens to know anything about climate science or economics."
## [4656] "Kwok introduces his new study by noting that near the mid-point of the last decade, simulations of Arctic Ocean sea ice characteristics produced by the climate models included in the World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) were far from what it might have been hoped they would be. Specifically, he writes that (1) \"Zhang and Walsh (2006) noted that even though the CMIP3 models capture the negative trend in sea ice area, the inter-model scatter is large,\" that (2) \"Stroeve et al . (2007) show that few models exhibit negative trends that are comparable to observations,\" and that (3) \"Eisenman et al . (2007) conclude that the results of current CMIP3 models cannot be relied upon for credible projections of sea ice behavior.\""
## [4657] "Among other problems, many of the sediment records Loehle used in his analysis had chronologies that were determined by just a few radiocarbon dates distributed over the past two thousand years. The dating in these records is consequently uncertain by as much as four hundred years or so, precluding their use in reconstructing centennial"
## [4658] "Have you ever wondered, when you see an assertion along the lines of The Earth has warmed by 1.62 degrees over the last 100 years, how anyone could know that? The literature of global warming alarmism is littered with faux precision; the truth, as you might imagine, is that it is very difficult to get reliable data for the whole Earth over a period of decades if not centuries."
## [4659] "One running total, the AA, is the Average of Monthly Averages. Each monthly value has the same weight. Doesnt matter if there is only one thermometer in that month, or 5000. This is somewhat overly influenced by the very early thermometers as they get to have a larger implact, being fewer of them. (Yet we are expecting the GAT codes to remove that effect so it DOES matter.)"
## [4660] "The model-observations comparisons serve as updates to two of my favorite posts: Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Versus IPCC Hindcast/Projections Part 1 and Part 2 . Refer to those posts for the discussions of the monumental differences between the models and observations. They are also presented in my first book If the IPCC was Selling Manmade Global Warming as a Product, Would the FTC Stop their Deceptive Ads? , in Section 8. A few model-data comparisons were also provided in my new book Who Turned on the Heat? The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Nio-Southern Oscillation . More on that later."
## [4661] "Bob Carter is a member of a small group of Australian scientists (although he was born in the UK and mostly educated in New Zealand) who, having attained a distinguished position in their disciplines (he is a paleo-climatologist), were willing to put their reputations on the line by speaking out against the most extraordinary fraud in the history of Western science: the fantasy that by controlling anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide, mankind can control global temperatures; a miraculous global thermostat."
## [4662] "Even if there were 1 billion people on this planet who would support the global warming hysteria, it would be a fringe group of lunatics. But one billion is still a huge number. This guy must be completely ignorant about what is possible in the real world and what is not possible. A billion of distinct visitors is more than almost any server in the world gets visited by in a year. And I am comparing Myneni's dull website with some of the most important internet services of the world that bring their users lots of useful information and interactions."
## [4663] "ClimateGate is serious. When prominent climate scientists fudge results, refuse FOIA requests, take steps to restrict publication of dissident views, etc., it's serious business, especially when their global temperature records were used by policymakers to call for a transformation of modern economies."
## [4664] "This restatement is particularly hard to justify as direct inspection of the temperature measurement points reveals growing urban heat biases, which should imply, if anything, adjustments up in the past and/or down in the present, exactly opposite of the GISS work. I have written a number of letters and inquiries asking the GISS what systematic bias they are finding/assuming that biased measurements upwards in rural times but downwards in urban times, but I have never gotten a response, nor seen one anywhere online."
## [4665] "But the climate science community has allowed itself to be used on this issue, and as a result, politicians, activists, and the media have successfully portrayed the biased science as settled."
## [4666] "Schwartz contends that climate model predictions of CO 2 -induced global warming \"are limited at present by uncertainty in radiative forcing of climate change over the industrial period, which is dominated by uncertainty in forcing by aerosols,\" and that if this situation is not improved, \"it is likely that in another 20 years it will still not be possible to specify the climate sensitivity with uncertainty range appreciably narrower than it is at present.\" Indeed, he states that \"the need for reducing the uncertainty from its present estimated value by at least a factor of 3 and perhaps a factor of 10 or more seems inescapable if the uncertainty in climate sensitivity is to be reduced to an extent where it becomes useful for formulating policy to deal with global change,\" which surely suggests that even the best climate models of the day are wholly inadequate for this purpose. Reference"
## [4667] "The NAS study, issued at the request of the Bush administration, details many dramatic-sounding scenarios by which the climate could be disrupted in the future. All of its scenarios, however, are dependent on controversial assumptions about the underlying science of global climate."
## [4668] "Now this is quite a trick, because it involves comparing apples (proxy data) to oranges (instrumental data) and pretending that the composite forms a continuous record."
## [4669] "For those who want to gawk at the observations of the Southern Hemisphere heat content versus the models. Here is Fig 3 parts b, c, and d. Note how the observation lines almost all run entirely below the models."
## [4670] "IPCC Reports say little, but acknowledge lack of data and understanding. ?There are very limited direct measurements of actual evapotranspiration over global land areas. Over oceans, estimates of evaporation depend on bulk flux estimates that contain large errors.? The problem is this is the major mechanism of transferal of heat energy in the global system."
## [4671] "I bring this last issue up, not to come to any conclusion about Moscow or the validity of the adjustments, but to emphasize the fragmented and complex nature of most long-term temperature records. The fact that we can take a 100-year trend of the Moscow data doesn??t mean that there is any meaning in that trend. The effects of a ring of slow-growing trees around the site, and a city behind the trees, plus a station move, make any measurements of the long-term Moscow trend speculative at best."
## [4672] "The global warming movements downward spiral accelerated in the past year after thousands of documents from climate researchers were leaked, revealing manipulation, suppression and possible fraudulent rigging of data to show the world approaching meltdown. In fact, its the global warming movement thats been melting down, as successive embarrassing disclosures revealed the so-called climate consensus to be built in part on non-peer-reviewed research and activist groups flawed assertions misrepresented as bona fide scientific studies."
## [4673] "All the models assume that the climate system normalises to an equilibrium state, the state modelled. As the natural processes of the climate system are non-linear and non-ergodic, small variations may result in large changes. There are negative and positive feedback loops. There is randomness in the system. As a result, the simple deterministic computer simulations on which all climate change projections are based will have little to do with the real world."
## [4674] "A July 2014 e-mail from Judd Legum, an editor at ThinkProgress, to billionaire Democratic climate activist (and former coal-mine investor) Tom Steyer exposes the climate-change McCarthyism that the Left and its myriad allies in the liberal media use to discredit or silence anyone who doesn't adhere to the orthodoxy of the climate catastrophists."
## [4675] "These actions are necessitated by the constant push to prove their hypothesis. As Richard Lindzen said years ago, the consensus was reached before the research had even begun. From the beginning, evidence has constantly emerged, and almost all of it contradicts the assumptions made and reinforces a null hypothesis, which the IPCC never entertained. Instead, they create explanations that are later proved incorrect. Their claim of a positive feedback from water vapor in the climate sensitivity of CO2 problem is a good example."
## [4676] "Canadians Stephen McIntyre and Ross McKitrick were unable to replicate Manns results and Mann initially refused to provide them with all the input data. The saga is detailed in various publications** and a chapter in Aynsley Kellows book Science and public policy : The virtuous corruption of virtual environmental science"
## [4677] "Michael Mann, take note. One of the most ridiculous claims made by climate alarmists is that skeptics get huge gobs of oil coated money. For example, there is the recent claim:"
## [4678] ".attempting to correct the errors with existing adjustment methods artificially forces toward regional representativeness and cannot be expected to recover all of the trend information that would have been obtained locally from a well-sited station."
## [4679] "Figure 5 shows the modeled and observed trends in sea surface temperature anomalies for the Atlantic Ocean (longitudes 70W-20E) from Jan 1982 to February 2013. The models overestimate the warming in the South Atlantic and underestimate it North Atlantic, especially towards the high latitudes. In fact, the models show just about the same warming trends from 40S to 70Nthat is, the models show the Atlantic Ocean should have warmed at about 0.15 to 0.2 deg C/decade for the last 32+ years for the latitudes of 40S to 70Nwhile the observed trendschange greatly over those latitudes. Again, how can the climate scientists/modelers hope to create the warming patterns on adjoining land masses when they cant simulate the warming pattern of the Atlantic?"
## [4680] "Finally, I also have to note that perhaps this will have some significant impacts on the question of AGW Model validation. Changes in relative heating with altitude are part of their predictions, and here we have them driven by the sun. So how long until those models are updated and we can see what they predict project next? Somehow I think Im seeing a bit of a spanner in the works moment in the modelers future"
## [4681] "The potential for climate modeling mischief and false scares from incorrect climate model scenarios is tremendous, says Colorado State University analyst Bill Gray , who has been studying and forecasting tropical cyclones for nearly 60 years. Among the reasons he cites for grossly deficient models are their unrealistic model input physics, the overly simplified and inadequate numerical techniques, and the fact that decadal and century-scale circulation changes in the deep oceans are very difficult to measure and are not yet well enough understood to be realistically included in the climate models."
## [4682] "\"Despite the fact that the carbon trading market, along with ?smart meter? programs, have been exposed as slush fund scams owned by the very globalists fearmongering about man-made climate change ? namely Al Gore and Maurice Strong ? designed to line the pockets of habitual con men who have been caught over and over again lying about the evidence behind global warming, states are now adopting their own version of the scheme so that the trick can be played on an unsuspecting public who still think that cap and trade hasn?t been implemented.\""
## [4683] "The NCDC data are regularly used by the National Weather Service to declare a given month or year as setting a record for warmth. Such pronouncements are typically made in support of the global warming alarmism agenda. Researchers who support the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) also regularly use the NASA/NCDC data, including researchers associated with the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia that is now at the center of the \"Climategate\" controversy."
## [4684] "Runaway methane is yet another climate superstition being preached by the worlds #1 rated scientist. There just isnt a lot of methane in the atmosphere. It is a reactive gas with a short residency time."
## [4685] "It is this graph of the widening gap between the predicted and observed trends that will continue to demonstrate the absence of skill in the models that, until recently, the IPCC had relied upon."
## [4686] "That Real Climate (RC)should feelspecial solicitude for the Hockey Stick is no accident, comrade. Two of the five principals at RC ??? Michael Mann and Raymond Bradley ??? were among the three researchers (Mann, Bradley, andMalcolm Hughes) who authored the Hockey Stick."
## [4687] "Freeman Dyson has followed the same path as myself, going from true believer in 1979 to skeptic in 2015."
## [4688] "The key part of the equation is the number right before x. Thats whats called the slope of the function. The slope is 0.0048 C per year. This works out to about half-a-degree (0.5 C) Celsius per century . For reference purposes , the IPCC forecasted 1.8 to 4.0 C per century over the next 100 years, depending on their various socioeconomic scenarios. Heres the real kicker... The IPCC forecasted 0.6 C of warming over the next century in a scenario in which CO2 remains at the same level as it was in 2000. This is reminiscent of Hansons failed 1988 model . The IPCC forecast more warming in a steady-state CO2 world than has actually occurred since 1997."
## [4689] "Former NASA scientist Dr. Roy Spencer says that climate models used by government agencies to create policies ?have failed miserably.? Spencer analyzed 90 climate models against surface temperature and satellite temperature data, and found that more than 95 percent of the models ?have over-forecast the warming trend since 1979, whether we use their own surface temperature dataset (HadCRUT4), or our satellite dataset of lower tropospheric temperatures (UAH).?"
## [4690] "Jones said temperature records may fractionally underestimate warming because of gaps in measurements in the Arctic for 1961-90, the benchmark years for judging change, and problems in verifying ocean temperatures. The world is probably a little warmer than we are measuring, he said. Read more here of Jones spinning more tales."
## [4691] "There is an obvious sense of panic in the rhetoric of climatecampaigners right now. This panic arises not simply from the fact thatthe global economic crisis is derailing expensive climate action plans,but from the deeper problem that the scientific case for catastrophicglobal warming is slowly unraveling."
## [4692] "The data become relatively sparse prior to 1600, and are subject to uncertainties related to spatial completeness and interpretation making the results somewhat equivocal, e.g., less than 90 percent confidence. Achieving greater certainty as to the magnitude of climate variations before that time will require more extensive data and analysis."
## [4693] "It also said the panel had purposely emphasised the negative impacts of climate change and made \"substantive findings\" based on little proof."
## [4694] "And of course, the press loved this take, for now everything was right again in the world of global warming doom-and-gloom. For example, Reuters reporter Patricia Reaney wrote:"
## [4695] "Finding #1: \"The model fails to simulate the asymmetry of the wintertime circulation anomalies over the WNP between El Nio and La Nia.\" Finding #2: \"The simulated anomalous cyclone over the WNP (WNPAC) associated with La Nia is generally symmetric about the WNPAC associated with El Nio, rather than shifted westward as that in the observation.\" Finding #3: \"Simulated La Nia events decay much faster than observed.\" Finding #4: \"Owing to biases in the mean state, the precipitation anomalies over East Asia, especially those of the Meiyu rain belt, are much weaker than that in the observation.\" What it means"
## [4696] "On January 7, 2005, Weaver asked Keith Briffa, one of the coauthors of Rutherford, Mann et al 2005, to act as a peer reviewer for Mann, Rutherford et al 2005. Because of his IPCC commitments, Briffa declined (suggesting Wigley), but neither Weaver nor Briffa seemed the least bit concerned about any potential impropriety arising from Briffa acting as a buddy peer reviewer."
## [4697] "There is an increasing body of papers in the scientific literature, such as Lindzen & Choi (2009), or Pinker et al. (2005), that state or imply that temperature feedbacks additional radiative forcings that occur merely because the initial warming, however caused, has occurred are either zero or net-negative, exercising a countervailing cooling effect. The feedback that is most obviously wrong in the UN's analysis is the cloud-albedo feedback. As more clouds form, particularly at low altitudes where clouds tend to be optically dense, more sunlight is reflected harmlessly straight back into space without causing any warming here in the atmosphere. It is easy to demonstrate that this primary (and cooling) radiative effect of clouds is more important than the secondary (and warming) effect you mention namely, the retention of heat in the atmosphere by the blanket of clouds."
## [4698] "The UN IPCC had to correct a report from the year 2007. The report had exaggerated the melting of the Himalayan glaciers, and even claimed that they could disappear completely by 2035."
## [4699] "The graphs are below. Frankly, even after the tampering, the warming rate is nothing like what it should have been if any of the IPCCs predictions had been true. My guess is that once theyve got their world government in Paris theyll stop tampering leave the temperature records alone."
## [4700] "And here??s another give- away that Bachelard is a PR writer disguised as a journalist (though he may not know it himself) ??? the questions he asks the skeptics. They are fair questions, but I??ll bet that Bachelard has never asked a believer of the theory the same thing. Do correct me if I??m wrong, but try on these questions below ??? imagine a journalist asking these of Greg Combet, or Julia Gillard, Ross Garnaut or Tim Flannery?"
## [4701] "Why the man-made global warming climate models are a \"fudge,\" according to Hansen himself"
## [4702] "The average of those sites , plotted in Figure 5, is based on many ring-width series, each one being 500 years or longer, without individual growth surges or suppressions and from \"strip-bark\" five-needle upper forest border pines of great age. Such record is not a reliable temperature proxy for the last 150 years as it shows an increasing trend in about 1850 that has been attributed to atmospheric CO2 fertilization"
## [4703] "Climate change is the subject of a complex debate in which, increasingly, experts disagree with each other. Nearly all of them believe in man-made global warming, but theyre not sure how bad the problem is or how to tackle it. Meanwhile, the sceptics are no longer dominated by scientifically illiterate amateurs. Many of them believe in anthropogenic global warming, though they dont think its happening today."
## [4704] "International agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol, \"are based on a general understanding of some causes and characteristics of global change,\" says the report's preface. \"However, there remain many scientific uncertainties about important aspects of climate change\" (BNA Daily Environment Report, October 19, 1999)."
## [4705] "Dr. Lning has not been very impressed by the IPCC climate models (97% of them have markedly overestimated the projected warming) andI asked him if he thought the models were getting better with time as we keep hearing that they are being fine-tuned. Dr. Lning doesnt believe so. They continue to overestimate CO2 and volcanoes and seriously underestimate solar and ocean cycles . On CO2 climate sensitivity, he thinks a doubling will lead to a temperature increase of only 1.0 to 1.5C."
## [4706] "The models are extremely oversimplified, he said. They dont represent the clouds in detail at all. They simply use a fudge factor to represent the clouds."
## [4707] "Johnston concludes by calling for a change in climate science practices and funding. Since one of the major sources of disagreement between scientists lies in the use of different datasets, he recommends that \"public funding for climate science should be concentrated on the development of better, standardized observational datasets that achieve close to universal acceptance as valid and reliable.\" On the other hand, the continued development of \"fine-grained climate models,\" in the absence reliable data, only perpetuates \"faith-based climate policy\" (77-79)."
## [4708] "Hansens GISS shows just how poor Hansens 1988 forecasts were. The GISS trend line since 1960 is overlaid in red on Hansens 1988 forecast graph ( Fig.3 .) The green dot is the GISS reading for April, 2010. Scenario C assumed that CO2 would remain fixed at 368 ppm."
## [4709] "The flood of emails coming from the University of East Anglia, the admitted errors regarding the Himalayan Glaciers, as well as the nakedly political agendas of some of those allegedly giving impartial scientific advice have degraded the image of the IPCC as the unchallengeable body of scientific experts on global warming."
## [4710] "Sadly, Germanys leading climate scientistsare far more preoccupied with transforming society and spreading panic among the population then doing science. Spreading panic is a favourite practice of Stefan Rahmstorf who, like his director Hans Schellnhuber, is a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK)."
## [4711] "Spencer also explained why climate models tend to over-predict how much warming will occur as greenhouse gas emissions rise. Spencer argues a warming bias is built into the models themselves."
## [4712] "The biases in the AOGCM forcings are generally largest at the surface level. For five out of seven surface shortwave forcings and four out of seven surface longwave forcings, differences between the mean AOGCM and LBL calculations are statistically significant. In addition, the largest biases in the shortwave and longwave forcings from all seven experiments occur at the surface layer.The reasonable accuracy of AOGCM forcings at TOM and the significant biases at the surface together imply that the effects of increased WMGHGs on the radiative convergence of the atmosphere are not accurately simulated.? ."
## [4713] "But when the model predictions are tested against the latest high-quality data from our best instruments, they are seen to have comprehensively failed."
## [4714] "First, it assumes a fundamentally chaotic, unstable climate system in which a tiny change (in this case, CO 2 rising from 27 to 54 thousandths of a percent of the atmosphere) will set off a positive feedback loop that leads inevitably to catastrophe. If that were the case, we would expect to see many examples of just that in geologic history. We dont."
## [4715] "Now, I suppose that this is vaguely reasonable. At least it is in the right direction, reducing the apparent warming. I say vaguely reasonable because this adjustment is supposed to take care of UHI, the Urban Heat Island effect. As most everyone has experienced driving into any city, the city is usually warmer than the surrounding countryside. UHI is the result of increasing population, with the accompanying changes around the temperature station. More buildings, more roads, more cars, more parking lots, all of these raise the temperature, forming a heat island around the city. The larger the population of the city, the greater the UHI."
## [4716] "In a previous Nature publication on amphibian extinction, Pounds et al. (1999) argued that warming was decreasing the frequency of mist, and that caused the species loss. They stated that it was a result of an increase in the elevation of the condensation level of local clouds. This would result in an increase in the daily temperature range (the opposite of what was documented in the recent manuscript) and is more likely to be associated with a decrease, rather than an increase, in total cloudiness. The current Pounds et al. (2006) explanation is seemingly in opposition to this initial explanation."
## [4717] "Yes, that is correct. About half the reported warming in the USHCN data base, which is used for nearly all global warming studies and models, is from human-added fudge factors, guesstimates, and corrections."
## [4718] "One graph to illustrate the death of the global warming hoax"
## [4719] "Were just hardworking scientists doing their best to address the impossible expectations of the policy makers? Well, many of them were. However, at the heart of the IPCC is a cadre of scientists whose careers have been made by the IPCC. These scientists have used the IPCC to jump the normal meritocracy process by which scientists achieve influence over the politics of science and policy. Not only has this brought some relatively unknown, inexperienced and possibly dubious people into positions of influence, but these people become vested in protecting the IPCC, which has become central to their own career and legitimizes playing power politics with their expertise."
## [4720] "The most surprising thing to me about this is the wide disparity in the amount, trend, and overall shape of the different forcings. Even the effects of the volcanic eruptions (sharp downwards excursions in the forcings ), which I expected to be similar between the models, have large variations between the models. Look at the rightmost eruption in each panel, Pinatubo in 1991. The GFDL-ESM2M model shows a very large volcanic effect from Pinatubo, over 3 W/m2. Compare that to the effect of Pinatubo in the ACCESS1-0 model, only about 1 W/m2."
## [4721] "Heres a real important fly in the ointment for modelers and I didnt know it. Humidity is not on the rise with carbon dioxide increases and small increments of warming since the Little Ice Age."
## [4722] "Here we see what looks like a clear effect of increasing UHI, due to city growth as well as airport growth. This station has been moved nearly as much, but more importantly its been located in an area that doesn??t have pockets of micro-climate."
## [4723] "Jones says that UK climate organisations are coordinating themselves to resist FoI. They got advice from the Information Commissioner ( 1219239172 )"
## [4724] "I would be remiss is my review of the climate stories of 2011 if I failed to mention the release of another round of Climategate emails. The so-called Climategate 2.0 emails further many of the storylines that ran throughout the original Climategate releases back in November 2009?rampant gatekeeping, data hoarding, and general misbehavior."
## [4725] "fact that the Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Models are not able to explain the post-1970 temperature increase by natural forcing was interpreted as proof that it was caused by humans. It is more logical to admit that the models are not yet good enough to capture natural climate variability (how much or how little do we understand aerosol and clouds, and ocean circulation?), even though we can all agree that part of the observed post-1970 warming is due to the increase of atmospheric CO2"
## [4726] "Additionally, in the post here , we presented and discussed how the NCAR CCSM4 climate model was not capable of simulating the observed warming pattern of the Pacific Ocean for the past 31 years. See Figure 10, which presents modeled and observed sea surface temperature trends for the Pacific Ocean since November 1981 on a latitudinal (zonal means) basis. The fact that those models can occasionally produce decade-land hiatus periods is, therefore, immaterial."
## [4727] "The IPCC then presents a series of similar graphs on page 930 in their Figure 10.21, and continues with their misrepresentation of climate model capabilities. On page 927, under the heading of 10.9.2 Whole Climate System, they write (my boldface), again using the emerging anthropogenic and natural signals and alternative hypothesis of just natural variations:"
## [4728] "Postscript: As Kriegeskorte observed, the specific impact of an erroneous method on a practical data set is hard to predict. In our case, it does not mean that a given reconstruction is necessarily an ???artifact?? of red noise, since a biased procedure will produce a Stick from an actual Stick signal. (If the ???signal?? is a Stick, the biased procedure will typically enhance the Stick.) The problem is that a biased method can produce a Stick from red noise as well and therefore not much significance can be placed to a Stick obtained from a flawed method."
## [4729] "We are meeting one month before the Climate Change Copenhagen Summit and several weeks before the U.S. Senate hearing regarding the cap-and-trade scheme. For these reasons, today??s meeting can??t be an academic conference, even though the topic still needs academic discussion. There is no consensus ??? neither in science, nor in economic analysis or politics."
## [4730] "There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution."
## [4731] "Landsea's frustration is not an isolated experience. MIT physicist Richard Lindzen, another past IPCC author who is not participating in the fourth report, has written: \"My experiences over the past 16 years have led me to the discouraging conclusion that we are dealing with the almost insoluble interaction of an iron triangle with an iron rice bowl.\" (Lindzen's \"iron triangle\" consists of activists misusing science to get the attention of the news media and politicians; the \"iron rice bowl\" is the parallel phenomenon where scientists exploit the activists' alarm to increase research funding and attention for the issue.) And Dr. John Zillman, one of Australia's leading climate scientists, is another ex-IPCC participant who believes the IPCC has become \"cast more in the model of supporting than informing policy development.\""
## [4732] "A new study in the September 2002 issue of the Journal of Climate takes another look at the discrepancy in temperature trends between the surface, measured by ground-based thermometers, and the atmosphere (more specifically the troposphere), measured by satellite-borne instruments, and concludes that we don't know why there is a discrepancy."
## [4733] "Pachauri has said IPCC reports are written by the world?s top scientists when, in fact, many of those involved are 20-something grad students, green activists, and people appointed with an eye to filling ?diversity? quotas."
## [4734] "In light of the fact that Quinn and Ponte indicate that ???over the last century, the rate of sea level rise has been only 1.7 0.5 mm/year, based on tide gauge reconstructions (Church and White, 2006),?? it seems a bit strange that one would ever question that result on the basis of a GRACE-derived assessment, with its many and potentially very large ???errors and biases.?? In addition, as Ramillien et al . (2006) have noted, ???the GRACE data time series is still very short,?? and results obtained from it ???must be considered as preliminary since we cannot exclude that apparent trends only reflect inter-annual fluctuations.?? And as Quinn and Ponte also add, ???non-ocean signals, such as in the Indian Ocean due to the 2004 Sumatran-Andean earthquake, and near Greenland and West Antarctica due to land signal leakage, can also corrupt the ocean trend estimates.??"
## [4735] "And a quick aside: there is no such thing as a ???global temperature??, knowing as fact that such a conjuredup parameter is based on just a few thousand weather stations spread across a tiny portion of the earths29% land, with none at the Poles, none in the oceans and some stations being treated as giving thetemperature of entire countries?! It is a truly meaningless parameter and the ???amount of warming?? hasrecently been expressed as being in the hundredths of one degree Celsius ??? you couldn??t make this up ifyou wanted to.Plus, the earth stations have been proven to have been tampered with so that coolingtrends have been fabricated into warming trends."
## [4736] "Computer models are not reliable because garbage in yields garbage out. Facts are often cherry-picked and can be tweaked to create the results that the computer modeler is looking for."
## [4737] "The IPCC claims the entire forcing if atmospheric CO2 doubles is only 3.7 watts/m^2. Thus, by starting with a TSI radiation level too high by more than double the IPCCs own 3.7 watts/m^2, every fundamental heat balance calculation after that statement is invalid and misleading. (Yes, 1370 watts/m^2 is the reference TSI used in the EEBB class notes, but that TSI value was already 3 years out-of-date when written.)"
## [4738] "The sea surface temperature anomalies for the East Pacific Ocean (90S-90N, 180-80W) have not warmed in 30 years, Figure 11. That of course contradicts climate models, which show the East Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies should have warmed more than 0.4 deg C over that period if they were warmed by greenhouse gases."
## [4739] "You cant make this stuff up. There is yet another USHCN cheat going on with the raw data which I just discovered."
## [4740] "Many renowned scientists have criticized the computer models used by the global warming alarming industry, pointing out, for example, that the models omit many of the most important factors in our planet's complex climate system: clouds, water vapor, volcanoes, ocean circulation, solar activity, and more."
## [4741] "Prior to Hansen et al tampering with the temperature record, 1970 was about the same temperature as 1900. The graph below was generated by the National Academy of Sciences in 1975."
## [4742] "Their overarching message has been that this doesnt touch the science, that the basic premise that human beings are altering the climate in dangerous ways remains unchallenged. I dont know whether to laugh or cry when I hear this argument. What it conveniently ignores is that weve been told for years that the reason we should believe in human-caused climate change is because an elaborate and reliable IPCC process had examined matters and pronounced it a genuine and pressing problem. . . Weve been urged to believe in the end result because the IPCCs process is itself trustworthy."
## [4743] "So how much of the change in climate is due to us and how much is natural? Nobody knows. No body, not even an international body of climate scientists. There are some guesses, mainly in the form of forecasts that say temperatures will rise dramatically. But those models predictions have, so far, been wrong in the sense that they say we should have been hotter than we have been."
## [4744] "Climategate, of course, casts serious doubt on much of the underlying data, as well. Those with a taste for dark humor will enjoy the reference in the EPA's response to comments (p.12) to \"the clear, transparent, and open procedures of the IPCC, CCSP, USGCRP, and NRC.\""
## [4745] "In all of Denmark, there are only a few of dozen limousines for hire. So more than 1,000 of the gas-guzzling, carbon-belching behemoths have been driven to Copenhagen from Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands and France. Since, at most, 140 heads of state and heads of government will attend the week-long conference, the bulk of these land yachts are being delivered for use by United Nations officials, the heads of environmental organizations and celebrities. All these people preach environmental sustainability for others, yet do not practice it themselves."
## [4746] "The last statementwhich is the same now as it was then, is arguably the most important. Despite a record (or near record, depending on who you ask ) high for global temperatures in 2010, the general rate of warming over the past decade and half (going on two decades) is generally less than it was expected to be ."
## [4747] "What this means, is that if the modeled temperatures were also stripped of their natural variability, then the 95% range of uncertainty (the yellow area depicted in Fig. 2) would contract inwards towards the model mean (green line). The net effect of which would be to make the observed trends (red and blue lines in Fig. 2) over the past 30 years or so lie even closer to (if not completely outside of) the lower bound of the 95% confidence range from the model simulations. Such a result further weakens our confidence in the models and further strengthens our confidence that future warming may well proceed at a modest rate, somewhat similar to that characteristic of the last three decades."
## [4748] "This is well illustrated by their failure to properly consider the null hypothesis that global temperatures will not rise appreciably because of CO2emissions from industrial activity."
## [4749] "No, nearly every other nation has concluded it was a massive and very expensive fraud. That is why the forthcoming UN conference is going to implode. Policy makers are trying to extricate themselves from the useless solar and wind projects to which billions were committed. As soon as Obama is out of office and the Environmental Protection Agency is scaled back to its original 1970 objectives we can begin to attend to the rebuilding of the nations economy."
## [4750] "Climate models only have validity if they are verified, but as Vincent Gray pointed out originally and more recently this has never been done with IPCC models. Verification involves the ability to replicate past climate conditions. Tweaking the model until it approximates those conditions is not verification. The conundrum is that without data you cannot create an accurate model or verify it; maybe a classic scientific Catch 22?"
## [4751] "The press release states that IPCC has created an ever-broader informed consensus, which is true. This consensus is created by having experts sift through solid research and write up summaries based on personal judgment."
## [4752] "S. Fred Singer: First, there would be very little public interest in funding climate science, were it not for an assertion by alarmists in the political and environmental communities that a human-caused (\"anthropogenic\") global warming crisis exists, which can be mostly attributed to carbon-dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels to generate energy."
## [4753] "Another lie claims that there is a consensus among climate scientists that a known man-made global warming crisis exists. Official statements to the contrary presented by more than 650 international climate-related experts who presented contrary official testimony recorded in a 2008 U.S. Senate minority report suggest otherwise. So do petitions signed by more than 30,000 scientists that have challenged IPCC's 1995 procedures and report representations. Those circumstances prompted Dr. Frederick Seitz, former president of the U.S. Academy of Sciences, the American Physical Society, and Rockefeller University to write in The Wall Street Journal: \"I have never witnessed a more disturbing corruption of the peer review process than events that led to this IPCC report.\""
## [4754] "I personally believe that disclosure of any relevant content of the material is justified in the public interest, given the billions of pounds of public money spent on the climate scare maintained since the start of the Climategate email chain. Early in that chain, Michael Manns paleoclimatology work, including the infamous Hockey Stick used to scare policy makers into great expense on the publics behalf, is described as crap by other scientists who nonetheless did not speak up in public to allay the fears of impending climate doom it engendered. This is just one example of why the public has a right to know what went on behind the scenes at the heart of the Climate Research Unit and within the IPCC process."
## [4755] "In the assessment of global warming (and global cooling), this research further shows that unless the role of near surfacevapor trends are included, a quantitatively erroneous assessment will necessarily result. Thus, when a media report or scientific paper claims thata certain increase (or decrease) in temperatures have occurred over a period of years, this cannot by itself, be used to say this is warming or cooling (in terms of heat), unless the changes in water vapor concentrations are simultaneously assessed so that moist enthalpy changes are computed."
## [4756] "In 2011, Texas A&Ms Andrew Dessler announced that Texas was going to be hot and dry for the rest of the century based on a single data point."
## [4757] "AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE EXPERT CONDEMNS UN CLIMATE ALARM"
## [4758] "Southeast Alaska is having their coldest summer on record, after their snowiest winter on record so MSNBC blames a landslide there on global warming."
## [4759] "Is the IPCC Logically Challenged? Writing in American Thinker, SEPP Chairman Fred Singer recaps the major failures in science and in logic that the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employed in its five scientific Assessment Reports (AR) from 1990 to 2013. The scientific failures in the first three reports, such as Mr. Manns Hockeystick, have been clearly discredited."
## [4760] "In the past, the mainstream press essentially ignored the anti-science temperature record fabrications, but no longer ."
## [4761] "Gavin Schmidt who is involved in compiling the temperature record kept by NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies, a record which has repeatedly been found to have exaggerated and overstated recent warming."
## [4762] "Its that time of year again when we see headlines about 2007 being the m th warmest year on record over the past n years whether we are talking about the United States or the world as a whole. Reporters breathlessly reveal that the trend in temperatures is alarming and completely unprecedented over the eons of earth history. The buildup of greenhouse gases is immediately blamed, and we are all left to believe that the rising temperatures can only be explained by human emissions. Rarely does anyone seem to question the quality of the temperature data, and yet, articles appear regularly in the scientific literature showing that the near-surface air temperature measurements are fraught with errors, gaps, and any number of inhomogeneities."
## [4763] "To paraphrase Mandy Rice Davies , They would, wouldnt they. To demonstrate to yourself that the ABC is completely biased, in particular on climate change, all you need to do is go to the ABC web site here , get yourself a stiff drink (because believe me, youll need it) and watch the debate that followed the screening of the film The Great Global Warming Swindle. The audience was partisan and biased, just as alleged by Senator Eric Abetz:"
## [4764] "Big errors are introduced because readings taken from the cooling-water intake tubes of various ships record measure temperatures at different ocean depths. Varying amounts of conduction from different vessel infrastructures and daily sun conditions skew temperatures as well."
## [4765] "Until last month, when the lies of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were revealed to the world by an anonymous hacker. Not since Aladdin has a thief saved his country; and this data thief may actually save the world from the proverbial fate worse than death. For the stolen data, now posted on public whistle-blowing websites throughout the Internet, reveals all the truths that climate-change \"deniers\" have been shouting upon deaf ears."
## [4766] "The main result is the best estimate based on the multi-model ensemble is found inconsistent with observations at a significance of 5%. So, this test says we should treat the hypothesis that the best estimate of the trend based on averaging over models matches observations as false ."
## [4767] "I think that even Mann sympathizers should not accept this response. The claim that ???upside down?? data was used may be ???bizarre??, but it??s also true. You can see that the data was used upside down by comparing Mann??s own graph with the orientation of the original article, as we did last year. In the case of the Tiljander proxies, Tiljander asserted that ???a definite sign could be a priori reasoned on physical grounds?? ??? the only problem is that their sign was opposite to the one used by Mann."
## [4768] "#1 Global warming is based on computer models of the atmosphere projecting temperatures out a hundred or more of years. Computer models are used to predict the daily weather as well. Can you tell us what your temperature at your home will be next month on the first Monday within 10 degreesCelcius Would you bet even one paycheck on it? How about the average for the week? Maybe but maybe not."
## [4769] "\"Non-falsifiable Hypothesis': AGW \"looks like its own self-contained and self-referential lunatic asylum finding positive proof of climate change in every weather surprise'"
## [4770] "The climate alarmists, says Carlin, have now been making their apocalyptic predictions for almost thirty years and it is now possible to compare their predictions with actual physical observations. Suffice to say all the predictions of a significantly higher temperaturethe warminghave been wrong."
## [4771] "And, the government scientist who sounded the alarm that Al Gore picked up on is in trouble for ???making up?? much of the issue from siting 3 drowned polar bears then extrapolating a population decline from that single observation:"
## [4772] "66. Critics of CRU have suggested that Professor Jones's use of the words \"hide the decline\" is evidence that he was part of a conspiracy to hide evidence that did not fit his view that recent global warming is predominantly caused by human activity. That he has published papersincluding a paper in Naturedealing with this aspect of the science clearly refutes this allegation. In our view, it was shorthand for the practice of discarding data known to be erroneous. We expect that this is a matter the Scientific Appraisal Panel will address."
## [4773] "The Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, which produced one of the models used in the Assessment, acknowledged at the time it was selected that its model's data were not useful for the purpose the administration is using it. Specifically, Hadley stated this on its website, \"In areas where coasts and mountains have significant effect on weather , scenarios based on global models will fail to capture the regional detail needed for vulnerability assessments at a national level.\" Regardless, this model is used to project specific, but scientifically unsupportable, U.S. climate impacts, which are incorporated in both reports."
## [4774] "John Christy emphasized that all of the 100+ climate models have over-predicted warming in the tropical troposphere, by at least a factor of 2, and this was supposed to be the most obvious manifestation of global warming as predicted by climate models."
## [4775] "Another deception is that Cook just made up the Lindzen graph. It does not represent any prediction ever made by Lindzen. Cook made the bogus graph by simply removing CO2 from Hansens temperature model. Naturally this produced a flat line since Hansens failed model is programmed to only respond to CO2."
## [4776] "projected regional climate change based on models that do not even describe and"
## [4777] "\"The full IPCC report, most of which is written by scientists about specific scientific topics in their areas of expertise, is an admirable description of research activities in climate science. It is not, however, directed at policy. The SPM is, of course, but it is also a very different document. It represents a consensus of government representatives, rather than of scientists. As a consequence, the SPM has a strong tendency to disguise uncertainty, and conjures up some scary scenarios for which there is no evidence."
## [4778] "UPDATE: Lucia and JunkPschology in comments confirm that these six papers listed would not have made Cooks list. So in only half an hour of random analysis I can easily turn up major papers by skeptics that fall outside Cooks primitive keyword hunt. How many others miss too?"
## [4779] "The reports forecast of a drier future could come to pass, but the track record of Australian climate scientists for predicting rainfall even one season ahead is dismal. The Bureau incorrectly forecast below average rainfall for spring this year for the upper Murray catchments just before the region was flooded. Last year the forecast for a hot and dry summer resulted in drought breaking rains across the upper Murray Darling Basin."
## [4780] "Personally, I have felt the need to break loose of the shackles of loyalty to colleagues and institutions if it comes at the expense of integrity in science and professional conduct. I envy Richard Muller who comes at the issue of climate science without the baggage associated with loyalty to colleagues or institutions in the climate field; rather his colleagues are a very elite group of physicists. Mullers approach of securing private funding and publishing his papers first on the internet has allowed him to avoid the schackles that I rather uncomfortably had to break away from. Private funding, the internet, and the emergence of scientists from outside the traditional community (not just Mullers team but also Steve McIntyre, Nic Lewis etc.) bodes well for improving the integrity of climate science in the 21st century and diminishing the effectiveness of the consensus police."
## [4781] "This study is of interest since it shows a new perspective on thelarge uncertainty thatremains in climate prediction.It also highlights how poorly the ocean uptake of heat is simulated in the models."
## [4782] "\"Although not an accurate demonstration of the physics of climate change, the experiment we have considered and related ones are valuable examples of the dangers of unintentional bias in science , the value of at least a rough quantitativeprediction of the expected effect, the importance of considering alternative explanations, and the need for carefully designed experimental controls .\""
## [4783] "Incredible amounts increasing yearly and wasted on every bigger and more expensive computers to run models. Careerists who cannot forecast seasonal weather were making things up (and began to alter weather data on purpose) while spending lavishly on computers pushing the AGW ideology all at the publics great expense."
## [4784] "Since the output from GCM models is in W/m^2 a second fabricated parameter was required to convert flux to temperature; another conversion that has no possible physical relationship that can be validated by data. This parameter called climate sensitivity was simply the value that converted the output energy flux to temperature that best fit the temperature data back to 1960 in Hansens 1988 paper."
## [4785] "When the data consistently conflict with their hypothesis, reputable scientists revise the hypothesis. Five-alarm climate scientists desperately seek new shells, and new excuses."
## [4786] "Although this paper confirmed the findings of a massive amount of previous research that the Medieval Warming generated higher temperatures than the current warming, the IPCC instead conferred star status to the statistically-tortured 'hockey stick' graph, which showed the previous warming to be less than the current era, and then was subsequently found to be without credible merit - a statistical travesty."
## [4787] "In the 19th century, British Prime Ministers used to say there were lies, damned lies, and statistics. In the 21st century, we may say there are frauds, serious frauds, and IPCC Assessment Reports. Recall, for instance, the notorious graph in the Fourth Assessment Report that falsely indicated that the rate of global warming is accelerating and we are to blame. Using the same statistical dodge, one can show that a sine-wave has a rising trend."
## [4788] "A paper published today in the International Journal of Climatology finds \" that the atmospheric pressure in the early instrumental period was not significantly different to that of the present day.\" Climate models , however, predict a 'human fingerprint' of decreased Arctic atmospheric pressures due to alleged warming from increased greenhouse gases. Once again , the climate models fly in the face of real-world contradictory observations."
## [4789] "The UNFCCC predetermined the results of the IPCC work by directing them to study only human causes of climate change. The IPCC then narrowed the focus to human produced CO2 as the cause of warming. They directed their efforts to proving rather than disproving their hypothesis. Central to this objective was the need to have atmospheric CO2 levels rise constantly because of a constant rise in human production of CO2."
## [4790] "Seriously, has there even been a more transparent \"heads I win, tails you lose\" argument than saying that unusually cool weather is evidence of global warming?"
## [4791] "A new paper published in Earth System Dynamics finds the earth's water cycle is 31% more sensitive to solar-induced warming than to 'greenhouse' warming. As the paper notes, current climate models incorrectly assume the hydrologic cycle is equally sensitive to solar and greenhouse forcing. Thus, this is yet another means by which climate models dismiss the role of the Sun in climate change."
## [4792] "3.) EPA claims climate models are reliable. Climate models failed to predict that global warming would stop and greatly exaggerate the warming over the past 30 plus years."
## [4793] "Washington, DC, May 25, 1999 The Environmental Protection Agency continues to peddle unfounded fears about global warming and sea level rise even though there is no evidence to support such scares, according to the Competitive Enterprise Institute. This week the EPA is sponsoring conferences in Miami and Marathon, Florida to discuss the impacts of global warming on Southern Florida and the Florida Keys, and to discuss solutions to the alleged problem."
## [4794] "In his book, Climate Change: A Natural Hazard, William Kininmonth, former head of Australia?s National Climate Centre says, ?The simple one-dimensional energy balance model used by the IPCC to justify its radiative forcing hypothesis is unrealistic in its portrayal of processes at the earth-atmosphere interface.? The IPCC model suggests that the heat and latent energy exchange between the underlying surface and the atmosphere is a direct response to the imbalance of solar energy and terrestrial radiation at the surface. Such a proposal is at odds with the physics of the surface energy exchange processes.? It?s one of many errors made to achieve a result; actions that are the opposite of even poor science."
## [4795] "So years later, the measurement data for key studies used in both canonical multiproxy studies and illustrated in AR4 Box 6.4 Figure 1 (along, remarkably, with Manns PC1), remains unarchived, with Briffa resolutely stonewalling efforts to have him archive the data."
## [4796] "If policymakers were told that this is not so, that ability to reproduce past temperatures indicates only that a particular pairing of assumptions about climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing allowed the reproduction of past temperatures, then the logical question would be: which model gets the correct pairing of sensitivity and aerosol forcing? In answer to this, climate modelers would have to say that they do not know , and the best that could be done would be to use all the models (this is called the ensemble approach). But of course it is possible that all the models were very badly wrong in what they assumed about sensitivity."
## [4797] "For far too long, federally-funded global warming research has been a tool of alarmist ideologues bent on convincing policy makers that human-induced climate change requires drastic government intervention, whatever the status of the science itself. Through misleading summaries of technical studies and omission of conflicting evidence, previous studies have been intentionally crafted to support the alarmist position."
## [4798] "Most of what we know of global warming comes from computer models, which are only as good as the scientists who design them and the data they are fed. One model, for volcanoes, is now shown to be pretty much junk :"
## [4799] "The evidence for this corruption is everywhere, but it does not mean that all of the science is bad. Climate scientists like to claim the emails represent a small problem in a local group of people. The global warming isnt proven wrong they say. They contend that we still have disasters looming and we need to address them. Its true that climate science wasnt proven wrong, but it was proven corrupt. The very fact that climatologists sit in groups and insist/believe they have full agreement of their peers demonstrates, not the quality of understanding the science, but rather the quality of the penetrations of politics into an uncertain and VERY YOUNG science."
## [4800] "8. They simply can not model what they do not know. ANY computer model can only tell you things in the domain of your present understanding. If your understanding is broken, so is your model. They know that CO2 is causal (despite the data) and that is what they model, ergo what they find. The truth is that we really dont know how weather and climate work completely, so any model can at best be used to show places to do more research, not to make policy. They dont predict, they inform of our ignorance."
## [4801] "In former times, the job of official climate witch-hunting had been one of the German Ministry of Environment, which even went so far as to identify, target and attack skeptic US and German scientists and journalists all because they held non-alarmist views on climate change. Fortunately that activity turned out to be somewhat embarrassing, and thus the activist Ministry thought that it was best to end it."
## [4802] "Clearly, the pattern in which stations are being opened and closed is not this self-evident so most of the change cancels out. But 3 ??C is a lot. If 1/5 of this worst-estimate error isn't canceled, you may cancel the whole 20th century \"global warming\". More realistically, if the real effect from this shift within rectangles is 1/10 of the maximum, you will reduce the 20th century warming to 1/2 of its reported value."
## [4803] "The endangerment decision has a number of serious flaws. The agency decided to rely on existing reports, primarily that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). As the EPA's Alan Carlin and climate analyst and skeptic Pat Michaels document, this creates a problem, because the scientific work on which the last IPCC report rests is now more than three years old, and in the intervening period several significant research reports have appeared that cast serious doubt on its conclusions."
## [4804] "Biases Driving Biases in CMIP5 Models of Earth's Major Monsoons (14 January 2015)"
## [4805] "Back then, meteorologist Anthony Watts was busy documenting evidence of problems with the official temperature record in the US because of poor placement of weather stations and Ross McKitrick was attempting to calculate just how artificially elevated temperatures might be as a consequence."
## [4806] "The IPCCs 4.8 C-by-2100 prediction is four times the observed real-world warming trend since we might in theory have begun influencing it in 1950."
## [4807] "Neither of them asked what kind of scientific consensus it was if, say, Freeman Dyson of the Princeton Institute of Advanced Studies declined to join it. Isnt the overwhelming scientific consensus really just a consensus between climate scientists, and therefore no more impressive than the undoubted fact that one hundred percent of gymnasium attendants believe that regular exercise is vital to longevity?"
## [4808] "What a total waste of time. Famiglietti mouthed off to Envronmental Science and Technology last August and replaced Saiers as editor in charge of our file. He then took the comments by Ritson and by A&W; (already rejected by Saiers) out of the garbage can, told us that the Ritson comment was accepted, then he rejected the Ritson comment after he saw our reply. Likewise with Ammann and Wahl. Needless to say, Famiglietti did not say that the Little Whopper was rejected because it withheld adverse results or misrepresented our work, but merely because \"the key points of the debate are already out there\" ??? which was the same (perhaps polite) reason that Saiers gave in the first place last May."
## [4809] "Perhaps the \"leaders,\" in signing their names, have \"accepted the science,\" but read what individuals have to say in the comment portion of any of the aforementioned news stories and you'll see that there is still a great deal of debate regarding global warmingor was it global cooling, or maybe we should just call it climate change. Whatever it is, the alarmists say is urgent."
## [4810] "That episode is apt because of the central role trust plays and because of the role puzzle solvers play in uncovering that the do-gooder aliens cannot be trusted. Serving, of course, has now taken on new meanings, as in you got served or pwned. With the release of the news that Mann successfully instructed Wahl to delete emails, its clear that Mann got served or pwned by Wahl; but more importantly, he got served or assisted by Dr. Pell, Dr. Scaroni, Dr Brune, and Dr. Foley. Who are they? They are the Penn State team who served Dr. Mann by purporting to exonerate him in the Penn State inquiry, despite Mann??s own non-responsive response to a key question being on its face evasive, and begging followup questions. Regardless, Mann??s non-answer did not even purport to support their conclusion about his actions. In short, they covered for him."
## [4811] "In 1988, in a move that marked a shift to the politicization of forecasts, Congress asked the Environmental Protection Agency to report on the potential effects of global warming. Computer forecasting became much more complex; output from the huge climate models became input into ecological models. My projection for the little warbler was part of that work. The attempt was to be more realistic, but the result was that forecasts became more difficult to verify and also more alarming, thus drawing more and more public attention."
## [4812] "The NAS has come under fire for its lobbying practices. See: NAS Pres. Ralph Cicerone Turns Science Org. into political advocacy group: $6 million NAS study is used to lobby for global warming bill & Cicerone??s Shame: NAS Urges Carbon Tax, Becomes Advocacy Group ??? ???political appointees heading politicized scientific institutions that are virtually 100% dependent on gov??t funding?? MIT??s Richard Lindzen harshly rebuked NAS president Cicerone in his Congressional testimony in November 2010. Lindzen testified: ???Cicerone is saying that regardless of evidence the answer is predetermined. If government wants carbon control, that is the answer that the Academies will provide.??"
## [4813] "The evidence does not support the anthropogenic claims of the warmers, but, in fact the evidence makes their modeling and theories problematic and wrong. Imagine that?"
## [4814] "The two Australian researchers report that \"the observed global decrease in diurnal temperature range over the period of 1951-2005 resulting from the relatively larger increase in minimum temperatures than maximum temperatures is not captured in historical experiments of CMIP5 participating models.\" In light of this finding, Lewis and Karoly conclude that \"ubiquitous model deficiencies in cloud cover and land surface processes that impact the accurate simulation of regional minimum or maximum temperature changes\" are likely responsible for the models' inability to simulate the real-world DTR observations."
## [4815] "On the basis of what PCF have written, a global cooling scientific consensus did exist in the 1970s, if only for a few years."
## [4816] "Because thermometer based measurements of the climate are only about 150 years old (and are quite spotty for much of that time), when scientists set out to construct long-term estimates of temperature trends, they use what are called \"proxies,\" such as tree-ring measurements that ostensibly reveal the temperatures that the tree experienced as it grew."
## [4817] "An article in Nature by Benjamin Santer bolstered that argument showing a correspondence between temperature and the presence of sulfates (sulfates reflect heat, cooling the planet). The study began in 1962 and ended in 1987. The problem with Santer's model is that it only assumed a change in the amount of warming radiation of 1.25 watts. The correct number is 2.5 watts, which when plugged into Santer's model produced more warming than models that have already been abandoned. Furthermore, when the data is run from 1958 to 1995 the correspondence disappears."
## [4818] "Over at HuffPo, the founder of DeSmogBlog tries to divert attention from the collapsing \"consensus\" on global warming by saying that it's all the fault of a decades-long \"climate confusion campaign\" waged by, among others, the Competitive Enterprise Institute. While it is nice of him to give us the credit for the good sense of the American people, his Scooby Doo-style \"if it wasn't for those meddling kids\" argument actually represents the real attempt to muddy the waters."
## [4819] "Spencer's report covers a wide swath of climate science topics from the factors behind global warming, to how scientists make adjustments to climate data, to the \"97 percent\" consensus figure often cited by politicians and environmentalists."
## [4820] "All throughout the debate there is talk of the Global Average Temperature. But at its core, that very concept is broken. An average of temperatures is a bogus concept."
## [4821] "...which does at least make it clear how the climate change is being used to push a political agenda. They need to spin a threat of climate change in order to move the politicians in the desired direction. Shame about the impact on the reputation of science, but that has long since ceased to be a concern of Royal Society."
## [4822] "Neither CBS nor ABC have included a skeptical scientist in their news shows within the past 1,300 days, but both networks included alarmists within the past 160 days ??? CBS as recently as 22 days ago. When the networks did include other viewpoints, the experts were dismissed as out of the scientific mainstream or backed by oil and coal companies."
## [4823] "With this in mind, I started playing with the data. I was utterly surprised to learn that in order to recover their average \"global\" temperature, I needed to mix about 37% of their southern hemisphere temperature with 63% of their northern hemisphere temperature. In other words, their \"global\" temperature is highly distorted towards the Northern hemisphere! It is therefore no surprise that once they do find a northern hemisphere temperature lag, also their global temperature exhibits a similar lag, but it is not a global temperature by any means!"
## [4824] "Not a climate scientist himself, Chu had faith in the validity of Al Gores position on global warming, and even said just prior to becoming energy secretary: Coal is my worst nightmare theres enough carbon in the ground to really cook us. Such unscientific and biased comments should have immediately eliminated Chu from consideration for a Cabinet position.\""
## [4825] "About 26 in there is a comment about spectral radiance changes and that the models may have a wrong sign on solar forcing variation."
## [4826] "Lets contrast this with the hysteria over the Pakistani floods and Russian heatwave in 2010, which, because it occurred in Summer and was therefore related to heat, was immediately linked to climate change:"
## [4827] "A quote from an IPCC insider: As far as I can tell, there is no data quality assurance associated with what the IPCC is doing."
## [4828] "December 2, 2009: \" CLIMATE CHANGE 'FRAUD' , by John Ingham , The Daily Express , London, England. \"In a controversial talk just days before the start of a climate summit attended by world leaders in Copenhagen, Prof Plimer said Governments were treating the public like fools and using climate change to increase taxes.\" \"The Climate Research Unit also admitted getting rid of much of its raw climate data, which means other scientists cannot check the subsequent research. Last night the head of the CRU, Professor Phil Jones, said he would stand down while an independent review took place.\" Read whole piece. Professor Plimer will present at the Copenhagen Climate Challenge Conference on Tuesday, December 8, 2009 to be held at the Danish Writers Union, Dansk Forfatterforening Strandgade 6, 1401 Kbenhavn K (Copenhagen, Demmark)."
## [4829] "Had NSIDC begun their graph in 1971, it would be clear that Arctic sea ice is cyclical, not the fake linear trend they are scamming people with."
## [4830] "In a recent research paper (Loehle, 2008), I show that if this linear model is mis-specified (i.e., a linear growth response is assumed but in reality the growth response is non-linear), even a model that appears to work well during the training (or calibration) periodthe time during which both temperature and tree rings are availablemay fail miserably during the reconstruction periodthe time in the past when only tree rings or available, that is, prior to direct temperature measurements."
## [4831] "Let me say it again: the question is not whether temperatures have risen or whether mankind has affected the climate. Temperatures have always risen and fallen and mankind has always affected the climate. The question is whether we have a problem on our hands. The poor performance of the climate models suggests that the problem is much less than we have been led to believe."
## [4832] "As long as the EPA continues to rely on assumptions about industry activity that are not, in fact, based on actual industry activity, their estimates for methane emissions will remain wrong. The fact that those assumptions result in inflated emissions estimates makes the agencys conscious decision not to adjust its methods even more troubling."
## [4833] "In other words, over the next five years, their models forecast that global surfaces may be a little warmer or a little cooler than 2014, as much as 0.2 deg C warmer or as much as 0.08 deg C cooler. That narrows it down."
## [4834] "2001: The IPCC concludes that todays temperatures are warmer than in 1300 years. How it reached this conclusion is under criminal investigation."
## [4835] "So we have two possible candidates for the station that made the red dot. Both have potential placement issues. It makes you wonder how many more of the dots in the HPRCC map have issue like this. I only spotted this one because it was such a large singular anomaly. I??ll check with HPRCC on Monday to see if they can identify the dot??s data origin for me. In the meantime I need help from our readers and volunteers."
## [4836] "Pachauri's position is also becoming increasingly untenable with demands for his resignation becoming louder by the day. In an interview to Open, Pat Michaels of the Cato Institute, a noted US think-tank, who has followed the debate for years, says, \"Dr Pachauri should resign because he has a consistent record of mixing his political views with climate science, because of his intolerance of legitimate scientific views that he does not agree with, because of his disparagement of India's glacier scientists as practising \"voodoo science', and because of his incomprehension of the serious nature of what was in the East Anglia emails.\""
## [4837] "As discussed and illustrated in this post, there are two naturally occurring, coupled ocean-atmosphere processes that the models obviously fail to simulate properly:"
## [4838] "To overcome those failings, the sea surface temperatures in climate models have to be forced by greenhouse gases to create very high warming trends in the tropics, where observations show little warming. Now consider that the Pacific Ocean stretches almost halfway around the globe at the equator and youll understand themagnitude of those failings."
## [4839] "The IPCC selects lead authors from the pool of those nominated by individual governments. Over time, many governments nominated only authors who were aligned with stated policy. Indeed, the selections for the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report represented a disturbing homogeneity of thought regarding humans and climate."
## [4840] "In my view this comment exemplifies a problematic attitude not only in climate science but in the social sciences as well. The good cause which allegedly motivates much of the research puts the researcher in a special position. It allows them to dispense with essential standards of professional conduct. It is perhaps not remarkable that we see a leading figure in the philosophy of science defend questionable practices which have been modelled (not by accident I suppose) after the famous climategate affair."
## [4841] "Is there a consensus in the climate modeling community on the validity of regional climate prediction by dynamical downscaling? A large number of dynamical downscaling efforts are underway worldwide. This is not necessarily because it is meaningful to do it, but simply because it is possible to do it. It is not without precedent that quite deficient climate models are used by large communities simply because it is convenient to use them . It is self-evident that if a coarse resolution IPCC model does not correctly capture the large-scale mean and transient response, a high-resolution regional model, forced by the lateral boundary conditions from the coarse model, can not improve the response . Considering the important role of multi-scale interactions and feedbacks in the climate system, it is essential that the IPCC-class global models themselves be run at sufficiently high resolution."
## [4842] "Regardless of those inconvenient \"global warming\" facts, the NASA climate research unit and James Hansen continue to embarrass the entire science community with their hysteria, hyperbole and serial fabrications. And July's commentary about heat waves and \"global warming\" is a painful reminder of the embarrassing Bozo-science that NASA can produce."
## [4843] "The models are broken. They are based on flawed assumptions about water vapor."
## [4844] "A climate criminal ignores the fact that models have massively over-predicted warming"
## [4845] "42) Trenberth's 'missing heat' really is missing and is not \"supported by the data itself\" in the \"real ocean\": \"it is not clear to me, actually, that an accelerated warming of some...layer of the ocean ... is robustly supported by the data itself. Until we clear up whether there has been some kind of accelerated warming at depth in the real ocean, I think these results serve as interesting hypotheses about why the rate of surface warming has slowed-down, but we still lack a definitive answer on this topic.\""
## [4846] "U.S. PIRG, part of a web of groups associated with fearmonger extraordinaire, Ralph Nader, has also released a report repeating the tired litany of disasters supposedly linked to global warming. The claims by these groups are based on pure speculation, however. They are not supported by the scientific literature (www.igc.apc.org/pirg/uspirg)."
## [4847] "Climate Audit's graph show's the data from the ten chosen samples (from ca. 1800 on) in red recreating the infamous discredited \"hockey stick\" temperature trend. Climate Audit shows a larger data set of living trees in black without Briffa's samples. Proponents of global warming theory are up in arms, yet have no good answer for the simple question, why did the researchers refuse to share their data? A response from Professor Briffa failed to explain why he kept the data secret. Transparency does not frighten those with nothing to hide."
## [4848] "Some commentators have been very quick to seize on one more example of perceived Team iniquity. That I had been publicly seeking this data for a long time and that Briffa had withheld the data not just from me (but also from D??Arrigo et al, for example) lent an unsavory aspect to CRU??s conduct, fresh after widespread unfavorable publicity for CRU??s withholding of temperature data (by Briffa??s long-time colleague and mentor, Phil Jones.)"
## [4849] "Bottom line: It really looks that the third runway has significantly warmed summer temperatures at the airport. Thus, one must be really careful in assuming that any warming there is the result of some kind of greenhouse gas influence."
## [4850] "Educators who turn schools into indoctrination centers have been going all out to propagandize a whole generation with Al Gore??s movie, ???An Inconvenient Truth??- which has in fact carried a message that has been very convenient for Al Gore financially, producing millions of dollars from his ???green?? activities."
## [4851] "Yet the global warming alarmism and especially the public policy measures connected with it have been triumphally marching on. Even the recent worldwide financial and economic crisis and the enormous confusion, fear, as well as indebtedness it created did not stop this victorious ?long march.?"
## [4852] "The author writes that \"in the context of global climate change, urban warming can bias results obtained for background monitoring, as many of the observatories that have been in operation for a long time are located in cities.\" Nevertheless, and in spite of this fact, Fujibe notes that the IPCC (2007) has suggested that \"the globally averaged temperature trend is hardly affected by urbanization.\" What was done"
## [4853] "Settled science update: Climate models make 'very large' errors in determining solar radiation at Earth's surface, 'ignore the effect of clouds'"
## [4854] "IPCC Climate Model Scientists Badly Botch The Science Of Sea Levels - Honest Error(s)?"
## [4855] "I agree with your comments. Like you, I believe that 95% of CRU is obtained from GHCN, with a very few non-GHCN sources, of which Austria is one (Norway, Sweden, Denmark are others.) Like you, I believe that they do relatively trivial manipulations of GHCN data. AS Ive said elsewhere, that is my best guess as to the secret that they dont want exposed and the only commercial interest that they are protecting."
## [4856] "And despite common claims that the ???science is settled?? when it comes to global warming, we are still learning more and more about the earth complex climate systemand the more we learn, the less responsive it seems that the earths average temperature is to human carbon dioxide emissions."
## [4857] "Passive microwave measurements are missing vast areas of ice, because an early winter storm broke the ice up into chunks which the satellites are unable to detect. Alarmists are going hysterical, based ongarbagedata."
## [4858] "The idea that politics was the motive only developed because the CRU and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had made global warming a purely political issue. Besides, why has motive got anything to do with request for scientific data and process, especially when funded by taxes and used to create potentially devastating policies?"
## [4859] "\"While it purports to be non-partisan, non-ideological expositions of climate science and moral common-sense, An Inconvenient Truth, in both its versions, is actually a colorfully illustrated lawyer's brief for global warming alarmism and energy rationing. The only facts and studies Gore considers are those convenient to his scare-them-green agenda. And in numerous instances, he distorts the evidence he cites.\""
## [4860] "Second, Mr. Drevermandid not base that statement on a thousand years of drought records preserved in tree rings, or on other proxies, or on any observations at all. It was simply a mathematical estimate of what is called a ???return period?? based on a probability distribution, not a scientific statement of historical fact. Here is a link (PDF) to how it was calculated."
## [4861] "Moreover, according to these same computer models, global temperatures should now be increasing at a significant rate as much as 0.3 C per decade. But this rate is higher than the recent observed trends measured by satellites, balloons, and surface instruments which suggests that the computer simulations are exaggerating the effect of the increases in CO2."
## [4862] "But watch the pea under the thimble: the completely defective Korttajarvi sediment chronologies are used in the comparandum series. Yes, the anthropogenically disturbed sediments have a HS pattern, but so what? Surely no one can seriously argue that this presents valid evidence on the modern-medieval differential (whichever way it goes.)"
## [4863] "The President could finally veto the Keystone XL pipeline a key objective of the climate alarm movement."
## [4864] "How well do the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models perform in this regard? In spite of ???the remarkable improvements of GCMs over the past years, it is still a challenge to simulate volcanic impacts for all GCMs???? Read More"
## [4865] "One of the most serious limitations of the global climate models is the failure to validate one:"
## [4866] "James Delingpole takes a swipe at the Economist's coverage of global warming, saying some nice things about the Hockey Stick Illusion in passing."
## [4867] "As to responding to these inconvenient climate realities, or debating them with the thousands of scientists who reject the dangerous manmade climate change tautology, she responds: The time for arguing about climate change has passed. The vast majority of scientists agree that our climate is changing."
## [4868] "Well, DUH. If they had forced the model with a water vapor change, it would have done the same thing. Or a cloud change. But they had already assumed water vapor and clouds cannot be climate drivers."
## [4869] "The environmentalists, moreover, very often forget to mention that even their hypothetical relationship is not linear (or exponential), but logarithmic and that ? and now I quote from the IPCC 2001 Report ? ?each incremental amount of extra carbon dioxide exerts a lesser heating effect.? It is not a statement of a global warming denier. It is a statement of the IPCC."
## [4870] "NOAA accomplished this by primarily lowering temperatures prior to 1950 (note the red tips at bottom, left of the blue dotted line). After 1950, global temperatures were primarily adjusted up (note the red tips at the top, to the right of the blue dotted curve)."
## [4871] "Overall, U.S. online stations have dropped from a peak of 1,850 in 1963 to a low of 136 as of 2007. In his blog, Smith wittily observed that the Thermometer Langoliers have eaten 9/10 of the thermometers in the USA including all the cold ones in California. But he was deadly serious after comparing current to previous versions of USHCN data and discovering that this selection bias creates a +0.6C warming in U.S. temperature history."
## [4872] "Read here . From the \"experts\" that predicted more hurricanes back in 2005, a group of hurricane modelers create a new model that concludes there will be less hurricanes (about 33% less) in the Atlantic basin, but the number of intense storms will increase by 81% due to CO2-caused global warming. One would hope that these continuous attempts to predict future hurricane activity and intensity would improve, but this new hurricane simulator seems to have some very fundamental problems:"
## [4873] "I have predicted the death of global warming several times, but like a Hollywood zombie global warming is kept alive by its massive propaganda machine and useful idiots in the media."
## [4874] "Climate scientists sometimes (GISS yes, NOAA no) attempt to correct measurements in urban areas for this effect, but this can be chancy since the correction factors need to change over time, and no one really knows exactly how large the factors need to be. Some argue that the land-based temperature set is biased too high, and some of the global warming shown is in fact a result of the UHI effect."
## [4875] "When scientists make claims opposite the data, you know that they are criminals not real scientists."
## [4876] "This is a key fundamental issue. If the models cannot skillfully predict CHANGES in the statistics of weather patterns, they add no value for the impacts community beyond what is available from the historical record, the recent paleo-record and worst case sequence of real world observed events. Thus, we should not be giving multi-decadal climate model climate change statistics to the impacts community and claim they have any skill."
## [4877] "In a recent article, Dr. Craig Idso, the founder and former president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, a coeditor of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, and James M. Taylor, a senior fellow of The Heartland Institute and the managing editor of Environmental & Climate News, a monthly publication, examined how Global Warming Alarmism Denies Sound Science."
## [4878] "The climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive are supposed to be simulations of Earths climate, but the simulated sea surface temperatures of the models used by the IPCC for their 5 th Assessment Report are definitely not of this planet. 70% of the Earth is covered by oceans, seas and lakes. Because the models show no skill at being able to simulate the rates of warming and cooling of the surfaces of the global oceans over the past 32+ years, and because the models show no skill at being able to reproduce the spatial patterns of that warming and cooling, all of which drive temperature and precipitation patterns on land, then any and all projections of future climate are based on modeled worlds that have no similarity to the real world. In other words,climate modelprojections are meaningless."
## [4879] "Having studied Climategate it is not difficult to work out how this amazing and welcome press release actually got published instead of being censored or trivialised, as so many other inconvenient anti-AGW scientific papers and observations have been."
## [4880] "Figure 1: Vclav Klaus in Texas two weeks ago. Members of the U.S. Congress committees led by John Dingell (Dem) and Barbara Boxer (Dem) - OK, let's admit that the particular lawmakers are GOP members, to make the sentence more diverse - have decided to ask a European leader about her or his views on the climate change, before the hearings with Al Gore tomorrow. They chose Vclav Klaus. Incidentally, DPA (the German Press Agency) has included the term \" global-warming denier \" into its official vocabulary. Well, many of us will have to wear it proudly until the global-warming regime collapses later this year in the Second Velvet Revolution. ;-) See Environmentalism is the new communism The full answers of Klaus to their five questions are here: Written response to the House committee members ( backup ) Czech translation Update Video of Klaus' talk at CATO"
## [4881] "But even when included, and through a statistical trick, weighting it many times more than other proxies, the composite series ???rolls over?? (a down tick in temperatures) after 1980 requiring the deletion (???hide the decline??) of the data past that point. See the discussion by Steve McIntyre here and the video by Prof. Richard Muller here . Also, see the updated (2009) Sheep Mountain data here . For a less technical review, see here ."
## [4882] "That is one critical questionhow much warming can we expect from a given level of emissions? Equally critical, and perhaps equally difficult, is predicting what global emissions will be over the course of the next century or more, given the vast range of dubious assumptions that have to be made about levels of economic growth, technological development, and so forth, in every country of the world, over very long time periods. Again, however, we can test the accuracy of predictions by comparing them to actual emissions today. When the NRC examined the track record of the International Panel on Climate Change in this regard, it found little reason to trust the panel's accuracy:"
## [4883] "Its very plain to see that the observed global surface temperatures have not risen as fast as predicted by climate model simulations in recent years."
## [4884] "National Geographic, a respected scientific magazine global warming propaganda pamphlet, says that global warming will kill monkeys , by causing indigestion. Whatever, add imminent monkey doom to the list."
## [4885] "When data from the satellites used by Santer are compared to data sets from radiosondes and NOAA/UAH satellites, Christy shows the climate models project from 157 percent to 297 percent more warming than has been recorded by any data set in the global mid-troposphere where the models indicate greenhouse gases should amplify warming the most. Models projected 230 percent more warming than the median value of the combined observational data sets."
## [4886] "In light of their several findings, Crook and Foster conclude - in the Conclusions section of their paper - that \"understanding reasons for the low Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical climate change feedback for both land and sea in the current generation of climate models should be a priority,\" which clearly indicates that we are not yet at the point where the output of the studied models can be given much credence when it comes to surface albedo feedback. Reviewed 16 July 2014"
## [4887] "Nice circular logic. They build a model which assumes that warming is caused by man-made CO2, then use the model as proof that the assumed warming is caused by man-made CO2."
## [4888] "Morano excerpts: \"United Nations climate scientists have admitted that the models used to make these predictions of 50 to 100 years don't account for half the variability in nature, in other words the scientists can juice or tune the models to pretty much say anything they want to. The current climate reality is failing to alarm, it's not alarming according to satellite data we're at 18 and a half years without any change in global temperature."
## [4889] "German Analysis: 97 Percent Consensus Does Not Exist Demands To End Debate Are Way Off Sides"
## [4890] "Refer to my post Guilyardi et al (2009) Understanding El Nio in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges , which introduces that paper. That paper was discussed in much more detail in Chapter 5.8 Scientific Studies of the IPCCs Climate Models Reveal How Poorly the Models Simulate ENSO Processes of my book Who Turned on the Heat?"
## [4891] "Read here . Climate alarmists and the IPCC have been aggressively trying to convince national policymakers and the public that dangerous climate change is affecting modern lives and it's due to human CO2 emissions. Unfortunately for the alarmists, the real world empirical evidence seems to always run counter to their assertions."
## [4892] "The models have been tuned to base their predictions almost exclusively on Mans influence. Also, the models handling of temperature feedbacks may have led to an undue tripling of the global warming rate via the use of a system-gain equation borrowed from electronic circuitry an equation that has no place in the climate (Monckton of Brenchley et al., 2015, Science Bulletin 60(1): www.scibull.com )."
## [4893] "by itself shows how far we have yet to go to accuratelt predict precipitation. There is no way the regional models can correct for the deficiencies in the physics and dynamics of the global model results since its temperature, wind and moisture fields feed into the regional models. There is also no way the regional multi-decadal temperature forecasts can be correct if the precipitation and clouds are not properly modeled."
## [4894] "The New York Times released information that compromised US national security , but won??t publish the CRU documents . Agenda, much?"
## [4895] "Scientifically unsupportable and misleading statements prompted an October 2007 ruling in Londons High Court that An Inconvenient Truth can be shown in secondary schools only if accompanied by guidance notes for teachers to balance Gores one-sided views. Following extensive evidentiary review, the judge cited nine specific errors. Included are unwarranted global warming claims predicting a 20 foot sea level rise, flooding of low-lying inhabited Pacific Atolls, and a likely shift in Gulf Stream currents; and attributions of the disappearance of Mt Kilimanjaro snow, drying up of Lake Chad, Hurricane Katrina, drowning polar bears, and coral reef destruction due to human causes."
## [4896] "?That?s the result that they get when you premeditate your science,? said Dr. Tim Ball, former professor of climatology at the University of Winnipeg. ?When you set out to establish a certain scientific outcome and you program your computers to do that, you shouldn?t be surprised if that?s the result you get. The problem is what they?re getting out of their computers is not fitting with what?s actually happening. Of course, that?s been the problem with the IPCC all along.?"
## [4897] "Overwarm While there is much that can be discussed from these results, we wonder simply why the models overwarm the troposphere compared with observations by such large amounts (on average) during a period when we have the best understanding of the processes that cause the temperature to change. During a period when the mid-troposphere warmed by +0.06 C/decade, why does the model average simulate a warming of +0.26 C/decade?"
## [4898] "The central lie is that we are experiencing a known human-caused climate crisis, a claim based on speculative theories, contrived data and totally unproven modeling predictions. And the evidence? Much is revealed by politically corrupted processes and agenda-driven report conclusions rendered by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which are trumpeted in the media as authoritative gospel."
## [4899] "9. Juckes et al failed to provide any statistical references for the results in their Appendix 1, nor any proof of the claimed optimality (or a reference of the fact). They assert a noise model, but do not show that they carried out any tests to demonstrate that the noise model in Appendix 1 was applicable to the actual proxy network. Inspection of the residuals in the individual series strongly indicates that the noise model of their Appendix 1 is not valid ??? see http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=938"
## [4900] "In a recent article, Dr. Craig Idso, the founder and former president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, a coeditor of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, and James M. Taylor, a senior fellow of The Heartland Institute and the managing editor of Environmental & Climate News, a monthly publication, examined how \"Global Warming Alarmism Denies Sound Science.\""
## [4901] "2. Uncertainties. The uncertaintiesin their Figure S2 (A) (shaded dark and light pink in Figure 1 above) are constant over time. In other words, they say that their method is as good at predicting the sea level two thousand years ago as it is today ?? seems doubtful."
## [4902] "Today??s Washington Times has a commentary on the flawed science and the famous ???hockey stick?? graph used by the the Gorebot and the IPCC:"
## [4903] "Here, we will look more closely at New Zealand and the rest of the Pacific Ocean. In particular, taking New Zealand out of the whole record leads to even greater temperature stability in the Islands. If the half of the planet that is the Pacific Basin is not warming, it can hardly be Global nor Warming. When we look more closely at New Zealand, we find more thermometer changes. Global Warming is an artifact of thermometer change (both modification history and location) over time."
## [4904] "I have already written extensively about what happens to the 2009 Vermeer and Rahmstrof model ( Global Sea Level Linked to Global Temperature, PNAS, 2009 ) when the outdated sea level data they usedis replaced by a newer versionfrom the very same people who provided them with the data. Itwas not good for Rahmstrofs theme of catastrophic sea level rise."
## [4905] "Why, I wonder start the linear increase in 1980? Obviously the temperature starts rising then, but why not start the straight line in 1970? The answer is that the temperature is flat between 1970 and 1980. It seems illogical to take notice of flat data at the start of a dataset but totally ignore it at the end!"
## [4906] "These positions reflect adherence to the shaky hypothesis of catastrophic manmade global warming and unsupportable claims that the oil sands contribute disproportionately to a looming climate Armageddon. However, Alberta environment office show that greenhouse gas emissions from oil sands plummeted 38% between 1990 and 2009, and are now 5% of Canadas total GHG emissions and equal to or lower than CO2/GHG emissions from petroleum operations in Nigeria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela."
## [4907] "Heres the thing the computer models that predicted something more accelerated than what has actually happened since 1998 are the same ones predicting disaster in the long run. If they were wrong about the past 15 years, it is a good sign they are wrong about the long run, too."
## [4908] "I thought the climate was gentle when atmospheric CO2 concentration was below 300 ppm steady, unvariable and associated with few weather extremes. Thats what fraudster warmist climatologists tried to have us believe with an assortment a various hockey stick charts."
## [4909] "The panel, which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, now faces the inconvenient truth that it relied on scientists who violated scientific process. In one email, the Climate Research Unit's director, Phil Jones, wrote Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, promising to spike studies that cast doubt on the relationship between human activity and global warming. \"I can't see either of these papers being in the next IPCC report,\" he said. He pledged to \"keep them out somehoweven if we have to redefine what the peer-review literature is!\""
## [4910] "Mr Boehlert, like most politicians, obviously doesnt read the documents that are presented to him in any depth, but is quite content with the headline statements. The findings of the National Academy of Sciences are the subject of another paper ."
## [4911] "Even neglecting radiosonde data, which has recorded little or no warming, and using the untested new satellite data set, Santer et al. find models still predict 170 percent more warming than was actually recorded by the data sets they use."
## [4912] "Non-Co2 causes of weather and weather related effects (e.g the sun or anthropocentric contributions like soot) are downplayed or ignored in the most recent IPCC report"
## [4913] "Scientists agree that a future drop is likely at some point if global warming proceeds as expected. But they differ on how much snowpack has decreased, whether any of that was due to man-made climate change and how far and fast its likely to drop in coming years."
## [4914] "Schmidt says that these efforts are a little misguided. He argues that it is difficult to attribute success or failure to any particular parameter because the inherent unpredictability of weather and climate is built into both the Earth system and the models. It doesn't suggest any solutions, he says."
## [4915] "A new HadSST3 version has been recently published. It starts the process of unwinding Folland??s erroneous Pearl Harbour bucket adjustment, an adjustment that has been embedded in HadSST for nearly 20 years."
## [4916] "Canaries and coal mines. The Arctic and the Antarctic. We will inevitably have to suffer the hysteria of the warmenistas if Arctic ice falls to a new low this summer, which looks possible. Of course, it tells us nothing about the attribution of the ice loss, which could be contributed to by a thousand other things as well as anthropogenic warming."
## [4917] "So of the predicted warming up to 6 degrees centigrade this century predicted by the most extreme alarmists, Al Gores little video had a flawed experiment to justify the insignificant first 20%, and a trust the computer models for the alarming bit."
## [4918] "Climate modelers choose parameter sets with offsetting errors in order to successfully hindcast the 20 th century air temperature. That means any correspondence between hindcast temperatures and observed temperatures is tendentious ??? the correspondence is deliberately built-in."
## [4919] "There is also a writeup on this new paper at Livescience titled Cold Water Thrown on Antarctic Warming Predictions"
## [4920] "Another point I would like to note is the heavy weighting of Peninsula and open-ocean stations. Steigs reconstruction relied on a total of 5 stations in West Antarctica, 4 of which are located on the eastern and southern edges of the continent at the Ross Ice Shelf. The resolution of West Antarctic trends based on the ground stations alone is rather poor."
## [4921] "Five or six years ago it was consensus that greenhouse gas reductions of three percent annually were not realistic. But then emissions rose like never before and suddenly the IPCC claims that six percent is doable. Precisely in a phase when CO2 emissions are rising liker never before the optimism is suddenly growing that drastic savings are possible. All this just to keep the 2C story alive."
## [4922] "We are left questioning the realism of a RCP 8.5 scenario. Is there any likelihood of the atmospheric CO2 reaching about 1120 ppm by 2100? IPCC has raised a straw man scenario to give a dangerous global temperature rise of about 3C early in the 22 nd century knowing full well that such a concentration has an extremely low probability of being achieved. But, of course, this is not explained to the politicians and policymakers. They are told of the dangerous outcome if the RCP8.5 is followed without being told of the low probability of it occurring."
## [4923] "Its popular among those who want to cut off debate to call skeptics deniers, in large part because it evokes the term holocaust denier and therefore marginalizes criticism of catastrophic man-made global warming theory."
## [4924] "It seems depending on who you talk to, climate sensitivity is either underestimated or overestimated. In this case, a model suggests forcing is underestimated. One thing is clear, science does not yet know for certain what the true climate sensitivity to CO2 forcings is."
## [4925] "The devil, as they say is in the details. In each of the steps there is some leeway for, shall we say, intervention. The early criticisms of Mann et al.??s analyses were confined to relatively minor points about the presence of autocorrelated errors, linear specification, etc. But a funny thing happened on the way to Copenhagen: a couple of Canadian researchers, McIntyre and McKitrick , found that when they ran simulations of ???red noise?? random principal components data into Mann??s reconstruction model, 99% of the time it produced the same hockey stick pattern . They attributed this to Mann??s method / time frame for selecting of principal components."
## [4926] "Yet temperature data from thousands of stations of vastly lower quality around the world used without adjustment to prove global warming are bound to carry far more errors that we know little or nothing about. And the adjustments at Cobar alone are as large as the claimed rate of global warming over decades."
## [4927] "Just to be absolutely clear on what the CDC and other government bodies are funding here through HHS: this isnt documentary or factual television were talking about, but inserting references to global warming into fictional TV shows and movies."
## [4928] "Consider some of the statements posted on climatedepot.com from scientists who question the honesty of those producing climate change evidence."
## [4929] "For years, climate-change activists have argued by anecdote to make their case. Gore, in his famous slide shows, ties human-caused global warming to increasing hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, drought and the spread of mosquitoes, pine beetles and disease. It's not that Gore is wrong about these things. The problem is that his storm stories have conditioned people to expect an endless worldwide heat wave, when in fact the changes so far are subtle."
## [4930] "There are other climate establishments in this world, and they havent come to the same conclusions about what causes global warming."
## [4931] "The mainstream media, which has tolerated and even promoted people who call global warming skeptics Nazis and traitors and called for the death penalty for skeptics, now pretends to be outraged by this billboard. We took it down immediately and admitted that it was in poor taste and a mistake, but they continue to promote madmen on the other side of the issue including Michael Mann and Bill McKibben, and hypocritically pound on us for our ethical lapse. This is fake indignation, being staged by ideological extremists as part of the ongoing attack on us and our donors. It is not sincere, it is not accurate, and it is not ethical."
## [4932] "How can this be right, when the median model TCR is 40% higher than an observationally-based best estimate of 1.3C, and almost half the models have TCRs 50% or more above that? Moreover, the fact that effective model TCRs for warming to 20812100 are the 10%20% higher than their nominal TCRs means that over half the models project future warming on the RCP8.5 scenario that is over 50% higher than what an observational TCR estimate of 1.3C implies."
## [4933] "The UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recently released its first major global warming manifesto since 2007. Once again, the IPCC makes dramatic predictions of future warming and catastrophic consequences due to manmade carbon dioxide emissions. Typically, these predictions are reported as proven findings that have the same status as the readings of a thermometer."
## [4934] "Why do advocates of the dangerous warming hypothesis resort to ad hominem attacks? Is it to protect science? If so, it is misguided. Progress in science depends heavily on research by skeptics."
## [4935] "OK, so what does this tell us? Well, we can do something interesting with this chart. We have actually moved part-way to the right on this chart, as CO2 today is now at 385ppm, up from the pre-industrial 280ppm. As you can see, I have drawn this on the chart below. We have also seen some temperature increase from CO2, though no one really knows what the increase due to CO2 has been vs. the increase due to the sun or other factors. But the number really cant be much higher than 0.6C, which is about the total warming we have recorded in the last century, and may more likely be closer to 0.3C. I have drawn these two values on the chart below as well."
## [4936] "How many times can official science be wrong before governments stop acting on the claim that human CO2 is causing climate change? The latest example is the claim that atmospheric CO2 levels are higher and show the largest one year increase on record ."
## [4937] "Climate models have been programmed to show global warming and all of its manifestations in response to rising energy imbalance values. But modeling groups go through very different gyrations (by manipulating clouds?) with the two computer-calculated components of the Earths energy budget at the top of the atmosphere in order to achieve that warmingwhich indicates there is no consensus on how Earths atmosphere and oceans have responded in the past, are responding now, and will respond in the future to manmade greenhouse gases. No consensus whatsoever."
## [4938] "Nor has the looting been restricted to property and purse. Some have seized the chance to blame climate change and push the alarmist agenda. They are what might aptly be described as climate looters. To their credit, the majority of proponents of global warming have not attempted to claim the floods as due to human induced climate change. However, for a few it seems the temptation was too great to resist and, as might now be expected, the media have afforded them prominent coverage. Also not unexpectedly, the ABC has been prominent in propagating this blatant alarmist opportunism."
## [4939] "The great problem with climate change is that it no longer seems like a scientific theory, but more like a 21 st century version of the pre-Reformation Catholic Church, complete with evangelists, tithes, indulgences and bizarre superstitions."
## [4940] "We were not told that taking a single month (or even a decade) out of context is not how grown-up scientists evaluate temperature trends; nor that the NCDC temperature record has been repeatedly tampered with so as to suppress warming in the early 20 th century and enhance it over recent decades. The effect is artificially to bump up the otherwise negligible warming rate by more than the puny March 2015 record temperature:"
## [4941] "Now, I feel the urge to mention that the cloud cover may vary because of nearly unpredictable complex phenomena in the atmosphere; and because of controllable external effects such as cosmic rays. Both of these categories of effects have to be studied carefully if we want to understand the changes in the energy flows and temperatures."
## [4942] "But this years event had a sense of desperation. Speakers spoke about being victimised by warmists and alarmists scientists and politicians who accept that carbon dioxide emissions from industry are a main driver of climate change."
## [4943] "But, let's face it, some of those believing in the serious nature of global warming have also been confusing the public. How many times have you seen global warming advocates crow about a single record warm year, heat wave, or a season with less ice in the arctic as clear proof of global warming? Quite often. But such transient or brief events could well be mainly the result of natural variability."
## [4944] "100% Of The US Warming Trend Since 1930 Is Due To Data Tampering"
## [4945] "He has graciously agreed to write a guest weblog for Climate Science, as well as also post on his own website ( madweather ). Dr. Maddoxs weblog is important since it provides another example of the lack of consideration by NOAA on the need for proper siting of instrumentation that is required to monitor weather and climate."
## [4946] "Email 1897 : ???Do I understand it correctly ??? if he doesn??t pay the 10 we don??t have to respond? With the earlier FOI requests re David Holland, I wasted a part of a day deleting numerous emails and exchanges with almost all the skeptics. So I have virtually nothing. I even deleted the email that I inadvertently sent.??"
## [4947] "Recall that Jeff Marque , an APS editor, wrote in their recent newsletter addressed to a small subgroup of the APS called \"Forum on Physics & Society\" an obvious truism, namely that a considerable fraction of the scientific community are climate skeptics. They opened a rare arena for scientific arguments about this issue."
## [4948] "It is really hard, especially in highly political settings, for any one individual to play the role of science arbiter or honest broker. This is due to the fact that there are often many views on what \"the science\" says (including uncertainties and areas of ignorance) or what the possible scope of action looks like. In addition, each of us has biases and idiosyncrasies which can make it difficult to see an issue from multiple perspectives. Even further, it is a rare policy issue where anyone knows everything of relevance."
## [4949] "The results of this study indicate a significant warming bias is likely present in borehole temperature reconstructions based solely on a purely conductive approach.?? Unless accounted for and removed, this bias can result in incorrect interpretations of 20th-century warming, which, as in the case of Tachlovice, need not be a manifestation of unprecedented global warming, but, in the words of Bodri and Cermak, merely \"a recovery to previous warmer conditions after a noted cold period.\" Reference"
## [4950] "Disastrous Computer Model Predictions: From Limits to Growth to Global Warming"
## [4951] "I actually enjoyed Manns presentation, because it reminded me a bit of being in a final exam in university, where the goal is to spot the errors, omissions, and misleading statements. Manns presentation was full of such things. For example, he showed a graph of Arctic ice decline, during a segment on the many threads of evidence that proves the globe is warming. His graph stopped at 2007, at the lowest point in the record. He did not explain that the graph was for summer minimum extent, which I think it must have been. That cherry-picked endpoint made the graph take a dramatic downward trend, and was most impressive. And, very misleading because the minimum extent has stabilized and slightly increased since then."
## [4952] "As papers continue to appear in the literature claiming that the climate models were right all along except that they were wrong, the widening of the divergence between excitable prediction and unalarming reality continues (Fig. 2)."
## [4953] "The Game. \"The game is communicating climate change; the rules will help us win it,\" says an astounding, horrifying UK government-funded booklet leaked by Mr. FOIA titled, \"The Rules of the Game: Evidence base for the Climate Change Communications Strategy.\" Written by the UK public relations firm Futerra for six UK agencies including The Carbon Trust for use by ethics and public relations tone-deaf scientists, \"The Rules\" teaches sophisticated behavior change tactics, including: \"Climate change must be \"front of mind' before persuasion works\" \"Link climate change mitigation to positive desires/aspirations\" \"Beware the impacts of cognitive dissonance\" and \"Use emotions and visuals\" (e.g., scare people with the Hockey Stick Graph). It treats the public like gullible idiots who can be frightened and manipulated by seemingly trustworthy scientists to believe in AGW. For a long time, it worked."
## [4954] "The physical basis of their tampering appears to be the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. The correlation between tampering and atmospheric CO2 is almost perfect."
## [4955] "Harvard University investigated and sanctioned Professor Marc Hauser for grossly exaggerating his primate research results. Yet, his actions pale by comparison to what Phil Jones, Michael Mann and other Climategate researchers engaged in. Hauser's grants were a drop in the bucket compared to the climate cabal's. And he was not advocating massive, expensive, punitive changes in our lives, liberties, and energy and economic systems. Will other institutions match Harvard's demand for integrity?"
## [4956] "The historical record for U.S. landfalling hurricanes since about 1900 is pretty robust, and storm surge can be estimated fairly reliably using models in locations and periods where storm surge observations were lacking. Tide guage measurements at a limited number of locations (where it is impossible to separate out hurricane induced surges from other causes) are a very poor proxy for hurricane activity. Erroneous inferences from the tide guage measurements combined with dubious applications of climate models produces a faux storm surge hockey stick."
## [4957] "A well-educated friend of mine, a climate-change skeptic, once told me that he didnt believe anything coming out of the big computer models that scientists use to reason about the complex nonlinear feedbacks driving the Earths climate system. He has a point: Researchers are doing the best they can in the midst of great complication and uncertainty."
## [4958] "Watson said such claims should be based on hard evidence. Any such projection should be based on peer-reviewed literature from computer modelling of how agricultural yields would respond to climate change. I can see no such data supporting the IPCC report, he said."
## [4959] "But the Medieval Warm Period was not so great for some humans in our own time the same small band that believes the planet has now entered an unprecedented and dangerous warm period. As we now know from the Climategate Emails, this band saw the Medieval Warm Period as an enormous obstacle in their mission of spreading the word about global warming. If temperatures were warmer 1,000 years ago than today, the Climategate Emails explain in detail, their message that we now live in the warmest of all possible times would be undermined. As put by one band member, a Briton named Folland at the Hadley Centre, a Medieval Warm Period \"dilutes the message rather significantly.\""
## [4960] "Read here . Since the Climategate revelations, the IPCC has literally become the laughingstock of the science community. And more recently, they soiled their reputation even further by pre-announcing what they plan to tell policymakers in 2014. (Objective science? Fuh'get about it!)"
## [4961] "Mega-merger of the week; the Alliance for Climate Protection and The Climate Project were rolled into one entity . Both are Gore-founded propaganda mills designed to keep the climate hoax front and center while Big Al rakes in the cash. Al touted an article by Alliance for Climate Protection CEO Maggie Fox:"
## [4962] "The media lapped up the hysteria nonetheless, and gave it meaning. What has emerged are unsatisfied eco-activists, disgruntled at the failure of the worlds politicians to achieve a legally binding framework to reduce green house gases in the atmosphere. These responses tell us more than Bali itself."
## [4963] "Recently, I was asked to weigh in on the climate change debate and offer my views on the subject. Unfortunately, since my quote didnt fit into the predetermined outcome, it was manipulated to fit the liberal narrative that conservatives are anti-environment and anti-science. The MDJ columnist conveniently omitted several key points within my statement, presenting a false narrative that furthered his agenda. If were going to present the facts, lets present the whole truth, and nothing but the truth."
## [4964] "Another spuriously precise claim trotted out is that The temperature of the planet has already increased about 1.5 degrees since 1850. This is a change from the usual one about the 20th century. The thing that is journalistically dodgy here is that any figure can be picked out of a hat depending on the start and finish dates. If you pick the years 1940 and 1975, for example, the IPCC itself allows there was a slight cooling trend, which explains why in the seventies the science journalists were being paid to worry about global cooling. On the other hand, the warming claimed for the full 150 year period mainly took place in just thirty years, between 1910 and 1940. The reality is that there is no global record of temperatures worth the name, certainly not prior to arrival of satellites, and even now temperature statistics are much contested and with good reason."
## [4965] "From the start IPCC computer model predictions were wrong so they switched to projections and scenarios but were still wrong. I put these findings with other problems to conclude that the only place in the world where a CO 2 increase precedes and causes a temperature increase is in global climate models. IPCC models are programmed so a CO 2 increase causes a temperature increase despite the evidence. In a classic circular argument, the IPCC then argue that their models prove CO 2 increase causes temperature increase. Here is a summary by Friends of Science member Norm Kalmanovitch of the problems and avoidance mechanisms using climate models."
## [4966] "Yes, you read that right. The head of the IPCC said that reporting scientific results from an experiment was irresponsible. It is a wonderful quote to cite, because it exposes at a stroke the political agenda of Bolin and the IPCC, where the risk of derailing the pre-conceived plan to regulate CO2 is deemed irresponsible."
## [4967] "Reducing the risk of potential global environmental disaster requires the development of a clear and ambitious roadmap for institutional change and effective sustainability governance within the next decade, comparable in scale and importance to the reform of international governance that followed World War II, they wrote. Comment: the ???potential?? risk is based solely on admittedly flawed computer models"
## [4968] "2. A team of independent auditors, bloggers and scientists went through the BOM High Quality dataset and found significant errors, omissions and inexplicable adjustments, read more here http://joannenova.com.au/2012/06/threat-of-anao-audit-means-australias-bom-throws-out-temperature-set-starts-again-gets-same-results/"
## [4969] "Yet the data file attached to a paper Nuccitelli co-authored last year marked only 64 papers out of 11,944 or just 0.5% as stating they believed the human influence on climate is not relatively small, in that they agree with the IPCC that more than half of the global warming since 1950 was manmade. Nuccitelli knew there was no consensus."
## [4970] "Still, maybe this is just the ABCs refreshingly hard-hitting style, applied to all who preach on global warming. So lets see if Rajendra Pachauri , head of the IPCC, is similarly introduced on Lateline as a mining engineer and economist, not a climatologist who by definition works closely with green groups and warming believers:"
## [4971] "That this assumed amplification is present in the models but not in reality explains why the models consistently overestimate recent warming."
## [4972] "From this post: The controversial head of the Oregon Climate Service -- stripped of the \"state climatologist\" title last year by Gov. Ted Kulongoski -- announced today that he will retire effective May 1. In February 2007, Kulongoski asked the president of Oregon State University to stop George Taylor from calling himself the state climatologist because of Taylor's skeptical stance on global warming . Note that Oregon is another state that is being \"helped\" by alarmist advocacy group Center for Climate Strategies ."
## [4973] "The Climate Science Isnt Settled Written by Richard S. Lindzen"
## [4974] "Of equal importance here are the magnitudes of the actual trends of the surface and troposphere. The average global surface trend for 90 model simulations for 1979-2012 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 or CMIP-5 used for IPCC AR5) is +0.232 C/decade. The average of the observations is +0.157 C/decade. Therefore models, on average, depict the last 34 years as warming about 1.5 times what actually occurred. Santer et al. 2012 (for 1979-2011 model output) noted that a subset of CMIP-5 models produce warming in LT that is 1.9 times observed, and for a deeper layer of the atmosphere (mid-troposphere, surface to about 18 km) the models warm the air 2.5 times that of observations. These are significant differences, implying the climate sensitivity of models is too high."
## [4975] "Climate prediction not only has the problem of nonlinearity in dynamical systems, but also shares with the analysis of typical real complex systems the equally great trouble associated with the presence of a huge panoply of variables, subsystems, and possible feedbacks in play. I remember Rol Madden commenting, back in the 90s when I used to visit NCAR, that it would be a sheer accident if numerical experiments with GCMs were to give credible quantitative representations of the real climate, presumably including future effects of increasing GHG concentrations."
## [4976] "James Annan, formerly a strong defender of Michael Manns infamously flawed alarmist hockey stick graph and an expert on climate sensitivity to CO 2 and other influences, recently concluded in his blog that IPCC is increasingly acting in a wholly unscientific manner. He referred to a list of scientists polled as largely constituting the self-same people responsible for the bogus analyses criticized over the years, and which even if they were valid then, are certainly outdated now."
## [4977] "Every major climate organization endorsed the ice age scare, including NCAR, CRU, NAS, NASA as did the CIA."
## [4978] "His reasoning is the fallacy known (for a couple of thousand years) as Argument from Authority. The single point that makes science different from a religion is that in science, opinions are always trumped by evidence. There are no high Priests. Manne thinks evidence means studies of the consensus of how many scientists vote Yes. The entire philosophy of science is that evidence comes from things like thermometers, satellites and weather-balloons, not from internet surveys."
## [4979] "Since we are free to choose from an infinite bag, all of our models are suspect and should not be trusted until they have proven their worth by skillfully predicting data that has not yet been seen . None of the models in the AP study have done so. Even stronger, since they said temperatures were higher when they were in fact lower, they must predict higher temperatures in the coming years, a forecast which few are making."
## [4980] "They even made a video. Meh. Does anyone actually think the World Meteorological Organization, which is at the forefront of misrepresenting its members' collective views , would succumb to such foolishness? Would anyone actually sign this petition to change the naming system to make a political point?"
## [4981] "In yesterday?s article Pachauri dismissed concerns that a lead author of a recent IPCC report is a Greenpeace activist:"
## [4982] "Though if the AMA did come out as ??? Doctors for the Planet ?? raging against carbon, I look forward to John Cook??s announcement that their opinion is irrelevant because they have no expertise in climate science."
## [4983] "The UN just released its summary report on how we should all expect extreme heat in the future. Well forget all that.Its all nonsense coming from unrealistic models that do not even take the cycles of the sun (source of 99.9% of the Earths surface heat) and cycles of the oceans (which cover 70+% of the Earths surface) into account. Garbage in, garbage out. Simple as that."
## [4984] "Pelosis Interesting View On Energy : Apparently Ms. Pelosis new script is still being reworked, but its a telling mistake. Not only is natural gas every bit as much a fossil fuel as oil or coal. More to the point, these concentrated organic compounds found beneath the earths surface must be extracted by . . . drilling. And sometimes even drilling offshore, on the Outer Continental Shelf. But more drilling is what Ms. Pelosi had refused to allow just a few days ago."
## [4985] "Undaunted by reality, all the evidence, and millions of temperature records in the year 2000 Dr. Hansen and Tom Karl at NOAA adjusted the US temperature record to make it look like Hansens already adjusted global temperature record. Theypromoted1998 from fifth hottest to hottest by adding nearly half a degree on to 1998 and lowering the temperatures of 1921, 1934 and 1942."
## [4986] "As illustrated in the two earlier posts that use these same datasets (see here and here ), the Multi-Model Mean of the CMIP3 coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models do not hindcast and project the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in any ocean basin, when the data is presented on times-series basis and on a zonal mean (latitude-based) basis. (The model mean of the West Pacific subset may look good on a time-series basis , but not on a zonal mean basis .)"
## [4987] "Claims that weather forecasts are reasonably accurate up to 48 hours are based on measured results for fair weather. Results for severe weather, which are really what is important for people, are very poor. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has a worse record for both. Every prediction/projection since their first Report in 1990 has been wrong, with claims for more severe weather part of that failure. They fail because of fundamental errors in assumptions and mechanics."
## [4988] "This was accomplished by throwing out global-coverage satellite-sensed sea surface measurements taken since the late 1970s the best data available and upwardly adjusting spotty and unreliable hit-and-miss temperature readings taken from ocean-going vessels which present well-recognized problems."
## [4989] "Glacier is ice, ice is water, water is life, intoned priest Toni Wenger, before beseeching God to stop the glaciers high above them from melting."
## [4990] "Just add sea ice onto the growing list of variables that are simulated poorly by the IPCCs climate models. Over the past few months, weve illustrated and discussed that the climate models stored in the CMIP5 archive for the upcoming 5 th Assessment Report (AR5) cannot simulate observed:"
## [4991] "However, to borrow a phrase from Clinton, it depends on what the meaning of ???used?? is. These upper treeline chronologies were clearly canvassed and assessed in the attempt to reconstruct upper treeline temperature. They were disregarded ??? but they were touched in the collective search process of the dendro community and became part of the sampling program. In my opinion, the situation is parallel to Jacoby??s ???few good men??: Jacoby said that he used the 10 most ???temperature-sensitive?? chronologies out of 36 and discarded the rest because they didn??t provide a story. These yellow-cedar chronologies were part of a collective search process and were even cited by Wilson and Luckman. It??s entirely relevant to show that these yellow-cedar chronologies did not have HS-shape as part of a survey of upper treeline populations."
## [4992] "JC comment: unfortunately the same is not true of climate modelers. They only receive useful feedback on decadal time scales, but even with this feedback, they dont seem to see the need for recalibration. The following seems to explain why."
## [4993] "Above all, these highly qualified people experts in their own spheres look at the published data and trust their own analysis, so their views match the available data. They agree that the climate warmed over the 20th century (this has been measured), that CO2 levels are increasing (this too has been measured) and that CO2 is a warming gas (it helps trap heat in the atmosphere and the effects can be measured). Beyond this, the survey found that 98% of respondents believe that the climate varies naturally and that increasing CO2 levels wont cause catastrophic warming."
## [4994] "Ive eliminated the graphs of the long-term running trends (see sample here from the March 2015 update). Ive been presenting them for a few years and I cant recall one comment about them. I replaced them with a model-data comparison which shows the growing difference between model simulations of global surface temperatures and data."
## [4995] "The IPCC, you will recall, is Al Gore's co-recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize and the host over the years of numerous scandals involving fudged and twisted climate data, research plagiarized from student theses, popular magazine articles, and green-group press releases, and, of course, the infamous Climategate emails which showed coordinated efforts to \"hide the decline\" in temperature data. This is not just one more scandal, however. This is much bigger."
## [4996] "Kevin Trenbirth the author of the now discredited paper of 1997 updated in 2008 pretending to show that there is a dangerous accumulation of heat energy in the atmosphere."
## [4997] "After the film's debut, public's awareness about global warming increased and the \"green\" movement surged. Since then, many corporations have gotten on board the Global Warming Band Wagon to exploit and profit from what has now become (falsely) an indisputable fact to many Americans: The Earth is dangerously warming and man is to blame. Climate alarmists warn that unless drastic steps are taken to curb global warming, Mother Earth will suffer grave consequences 100 or so years into the future. This despite a recent article that reports how tens of thousands of scientists have declared that human-driven global climate change is a hoax."
## [4998] "The spatial patterns of the warming of the ocean surfaces dictate the spatial patterns of warming of the surface air temperatures over land, and those sea surface temperature spatial patterns contribute to the precipitation patterns on the continents. Because the climate models cannot simulate the spatial patterns of the warming of sea surface temperatures, one wonders how the modelers expect to properly simulate the warming of land surface air temperatures or the precipitation that occurs there."
## [4999] "However their asymmetrical categorization of a 74year baseline period vs. three 11year climate change periods is highly problematic. If their intent was to determine the timing of any significant shifts, their analysis should have compared equal decade-long periods. Instead because their technique averaged the most extreme southern latitudes, the baseline would easily be dominated by the earliest 20 th century observations. Any range retractions that happened later during the baseline period would not be statistically detected until the 1975-1986 climate change period. Any editor or peer reviewer should have required a correction, knowing their asymmetrical categorization could cause such misleading results."
## [5000] "A new paper published in Environmental Research Letters finds that climate models exaggerate the upper end of projected global warming because the models are \" inconsistent with past warming .\" The paper adds to many other recent peer-reviewed studies demonstrating that IPCC projections of global warming are exaggerated."
## [5001] "Bushfire predictions in 2070 are nonsense on stilts. Models cant predict rainfall"
## [5002] "Indoctrination Alert as the ABC reports that the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority is targeting children in its latest effort to protect the reef."
## [5003] "What is the origin of the false beliefconstantly repeatedthat almost all scientists agree about global warming?"
## [5004] "But as we suggested earlier in the year , the incautious statements issued by Met Office scientists looked less like the work of scientific enquiry, and more like post-hoc speculation about which way the weather would turn."
## [5005] "UPDATE: Shub Niggurath suggests that no peer reviewed science references existed in first and second order IPCC drafts:"
## [5006] "The two researchers determined that ???the tropical oceanic warming pattern is poorly represented in the coupled simulations,?? and they say that their analysis ???points to model error rather than unpredictable climate noise as a major cause of this discrepancy with respect to the observed trends.?? And because of this problem, they found that ??? the patterns of recent climate trends over North America, Greenland, Europe, and North Africa are generally not well captured by state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models with prescribed observed radiative forcing changes.??"
## [5007] "I try to answer as many enquiries as I can from people who want to discuss ???global warming??. I wrote this letter in reply to a ???global warming?? fanatic who, it is not unfair to say, had never actually thought about the superstition to which he subscribes. Perhaps this letter will make him think a little more and believe a little less."
## [5008] "The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to 1.4 C per century half of what the IPCC had then predicted."
## [5009] "One final comment. From this study, it appears that the number of reliable tidal gauge sites, with reasonably long and complete records, is on the decline. Is too much reliance being put on satellites? Maybe. But when sea level rise is such an important and controversial topic, I find it both astonishing and rather sad that this is being allowed to happen."
## [5010] "The myths and urban legends of disastrous, catastrophic global warming that IPCC \"scientists\" perpetuate have become less believable as global warming has literally disappeared - unfortunately, most of these green, CO2-jihadist climate scientists still pursue empirical malfeasance by purposefully misleading policymakers and the public with even more temperature fabrications"
## [5011] "1980, 90s and 2000s obsession with global warming of around 0.2C/decade (as inflated on the graph) with predictions of fireball earth, plagues of frogs etc."
## [5012] "There were some of the pronouncements made in the media, particularly to the Associated Press by Dr. Michael Mann, that marry that paper with global warming, even though no such claim was made in the press release about the scientific paper itself."
## [5013] "Like with temperature and sea level data, government climate scientists are tampering with data to make it appear that the past was colder, had lower sea level, and had more sea ice. Perhaps Hansen has been consulting with JAXA."
## [5014] "We cant know (for certain or otherwise) which is different from any of the other 21 st century data points that are reported as within 100ths of a degree of one another. The values can only be calculated to an accuracy of +/- 0.1C"
## [5015] "I also recognize as unscientific the creation of and adoration for Mr. Gores movie An Inconvenient Truth . This film, produced by Laurie David (ex-wife of Seinfeld creator Larry David), is filled with facts well-known to be (and acknowledged as such even by scientists employed in the making of the movie) hyperbolic at best and often out-and-out lies. That this is documentary created by a D student in earth science and a Hollywood leftist whose greatest prior accomplishment was marrying a very funny man is the educational tool being used to promote hysteria speaks volumes about how little there is to be truthfully said. The fact that those who continue to promote this propaganda effort, fully aware of the half-truths and out-right lies, makes clear that science (i.e. truth) is not, to them, sacrosanct. When scientists recognize that they cannot use the science to prove their science then, well, its probably not science."
## [5016] "As for foolishness number 3, well, nothing better than having Singh write a web article about global warming showing zero-to-nothing knowledge of the topic beyond a quick reading of the IPCC and an insane trusting of Skeptical Science."
## [5017] "Average global temperature is a crude measure of the climate of the planet; it is more important to know how different regions will be affected by changes in seasonal temperature averages and ranges, precipitation, wind patterns, the distribution of different plant and animal species, and other climate-related phenomena. But computer models are no more capable of telling us about regional climate change than they are of predicting globally averaged climate change. One example comes from the comparison of the results of eighteen computer simulations of the warmer and wetter conditions that prevailed in Northern Africa around 6,000 years ago. The average of modeled precipitation is too low by a factor of two to three to sustain the lush vegetation known to have been present.22 Until the computer models, and the physical aspects of the climate coded in them, improve substantially, regional projections remain highly speculative."
## [5018] "They ignore hundreds of thousands of weather balloon results that show the climate models overestimate future warming by at least 300%."
## [5019] "According to Bill McKibben in an op-ed in The Washington Post, the biggest news of the year is that Jim Hansen has spoken. According to Hansen, who has risen in recent years from astronomer to wizard and now to high priest of a doomsday cult, the safe level for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be no more than 350 parts per million. So since it's now 380 or 390 ppm, we're already doomed and can stop worrying about it."
## [5020] "Pielke goes on to deconstruct the study, but just compare the two bolded statements. First, that there is not sufficiently extensive and accurate observational data to test a hypothesis. BUT, then we will create a model, and this model is validated against this same observational data. Then the model is used to draw all kinds of conclusions about the problem being studied."
## [5021] "\"The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up believing in their own models.\""
## [5022] "All of this says, we have no idea how much carbon dioxide nature is adding to the atmosphere. The models used to justify the war on carbon start with dream-time forecasts of world economic activity. These figures drive forecasts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which are linked to assumptions and complex formula in a big black box that spits out forecasts of global temperature for a century ahead. No one but an Australian Climate Commissioner could take any notice of these forecasts."
## [5023] "To illustrate the point further, at any given time, some parts of earth are actually in cooling trends while others are in warming trends. By averaging temperature anomalies across the globe, the IPCC and consensus science has concluded that there is an overall positive warming trend. The following is a simple example of how easily anomaly data can report not only a misleading result, but worse, in some cases it can report a result the OPPOSITE of what is happening from an energy balance perspective. To illustrate, lets take four different temperatures and consider their value when converted to w/m2 as calculated by Stefan-Boltzmann Law:"
## [5024] "As NIPCC explains , if we are going to use models to overhaul our economies we would hope they do better at predictions than being low or absent in skill, yet thats exactly what Kiktev et al found when they compared five GCMs with observations:"
## [5025] "A good example of this is equating climate skeptics to pedophiles , something else Lewandowsky was involved in (via an ABC radio show, but he didn??t actually make the claim, the announcer did) but note that he??s made the claims about HIV and AIDS here, even before his latest paper was published . Predetermined conclusion anyone?"
## [5026] "Alarm, Alarm. Lets increase the growth of data. Or, to speak like Honecker (leader of former communist regime East Germany): Always higher, never lower! And if its not possible to increase the current data, then lets just reduce the data of the past. Just like some climate scientists also want to reduce the temperature of the hottest year since instrumental measurements began, namely 1998, just so that this decade can once again appear to be on the rise. Or just like Michael Mann tried with his infamous hockey stick but failed."
## [5027] "These papers all report anomalously increased OLR associated with tropical surface warming. Models, by contrast, fail to show such an increase. Presumably that is why it is referred to as anomalous. One can (though the authors dont) infer a negative feedback factor from the observations, and it is at the high end of what LCH estimate. Moreover, the anomaly is associated with reduced upper level cirrus. However, the same papers insist that what they see is not the Iris Effect, but rather the result of a change in the large scale circulation. However, there is something seriously wrong with this attribution."
## [5028] "Over the 55 years from 1958-2012, climate models not only significantly over-predict warming in the tropical troposphere, but they represent it in a fundamentally different way than is observed."
## [5029] "Ive done a quick read of Dessler (2011). I have the same problem with Desslers paper that I had with S&B; and LC. These analyses dont really tell us anything about cloud feedback, although they are interpreted as doing so. The simple energy balance model upon which equation (1) is useful (at best) only for black box thermodynamics only analyses of the climate system. Cloud feedback is frequency dependent, and the key issue S&B; are trying to address is the role of natural internal variability in modulating clouds, which in turn modulates the radiative balance and surface temperature; it is in this sense that they then refer to clouds as a forcing. This inconsistency arises from trying to use the black box energy balance feedback model to make inferences about the impact of internal dynamical variations on clouds and the energy balance."
## [5030] "Compare the model predictions to the weather balloon measurements below. The graphs are not remotely the same. The models are wrong. The Hot Spot is missing. The net effect of the warming due to man-made CO 2 has been exaggerated."
## [5031] "Last is Figure 4. It compares the modeled and observed temperature differences between the sea surface temperatures and marine air temperatures, where the marine air temperatures are subtracted from the sea surface temperatures. The observed temperature difference (SST Minus MAT) averages about 2.9 deg C, and the difference has been increasing. But the modeled difference averages about 1.25 deg C and has been decreasing."
## [5032] "Heres the simplest interpretation a small cadre of well paid scientists make ambitious, inept climate models that billions of dollars of decisions relies on."
## [5033] "Harumph. So weve got a downtrend. We take a flat step up on dropping to a single thermometer. Then a final rise in the end. But whats in that rise? A large quantity of missing data:"
## [5034] "Climate science defies this concept by consistently adjusting older temperatures downwards and recent temperatures upwards. The assumption is almost always that older temperatures are defective because they were too high, and newer temperatures are the opposite."
## [5035] "At some point Dr. Mann crossed the line from scientist solely in pursuit of truth to activist with a book to sell. The books title is illuminating: The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. Activists go to war, scientists do not. Through Twitter, he links to liberal websites touting President Obamas electoral prospects as evidence of his perceived persecution. And in one of the Climategate II emails he wrote he gave up on another scientist because she was not firmly committed enough to the cause. But Dr. Manns cause, whether it be selling books, preserving his professional reputation, or obtaining more government funding, is not purely science. And the Virginia Supreme Court shouldnt make us just trust him."
## [5036] "More importantly, we haven't gotten the massive warming so long predicted by the computer models. If James Hansen had been correct in his 1988 predictions to congress, the planet would already some 2 degrees warmer today than it is. Nor did the computer models predict the Pacific Ocean's 2008 cold phase shift which is likely to cool the planet for the next 30 years. Let's wait for the current La Nina to fade and see what sort of \"warming\" we face."
## [5037] "Keep in mind that the model mean, according to the IPCC, represents the anthropogenically forced component of the climate models during the period of 1981 to 2011. Unfortunately for the models and the IPCC, there is no evidence of anthropogenic forcing in the East Pacific Sea Surface Temperature data (90S-90N, 180-80W), Figure 20, or in the Sea Surface Temperature data for the Rest Of The World (90S-90N-80W-180), Figure 21."
## [5038] "African dust plays a key role in cloud formation, hurricanes and other global climate phenomena but models cant characterize it well."
## [5039] "The net effect of the joint cooling and warming adjustments appears to be two-fold in support of the UN/IPCC political science political \"science\" agenda."
## [5040] "For those who havent seen it, heres a link to US weatherman John Colemans magisterial demolition of the Great AGW Scam. I particularly recommend part 4 because thats the one with all the meat. It shows how temperature readings have been manipulated at the two key climate data centres in the United States the NASA Goddard Science and Space Institute at Columbia University in New York and the NOAA National Climate Data Center in Ashville, North Carolina. (Hat tip: Platosays )"
## [5041] "Looking at the list, it would seem that so such person is to be found among the eminent individuals who make up the Deutsche Bank's Climate Advisory Board: all appear as people who are (to quote a nice phrase from Clive Crook) 'precommitted to the urgency of the climate cause'. A more representative Board, spanning a wider range of opinions. might have taken more trouble to ensure that any published work issued under its auspices would measure up to professional standards."
## [5042] "Ji et al present a methodology to analyse global (excluding Antarctica) spatiotemporal patterns of temperature change, using mean monthly temperatures obtained from the updated Climate Research Unit (CRU) high-resolution gridded climate database. Their analysis fails to take into account several key characteristics of the CRU database, seriously compromising the conclusions regarding the spatiotemporal patterns of global warming during the twentieth century."
## [5043] "Whether its sea ice data, accumulated cyclone energy, the last two brutal German winters, ocean cycles, satellite data, etc., Rahmstorf refuses to believe the data no matter what. The climates after us."
## [5044] "There is considerable evidence that the People's Climate March wasn't as much about climate as it was an excuse for those who want a different political system. If you really believe that capitalism is destroying the Earth and hurting people or even if you don't really believe it then environmentalism becomes a really good excuse to dump capitalism."
## [5045] "\" ...all models contain large errors in precipitation simulations, both in terms of mean fields and their annual cycle, as well as their characteristics: the intensity, frequency, and duration of precipitation...\""
## [5046] "Dueling Claims About How Global Warming Affects Winters: \"The IPCC says global warming makes winter mild with less snow' \"Milder winter temps will decrease heavy snowstorms' \"Settled science also tells us global warming makes winter cold and snowy in the US Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer Mocks Gore: OMG! ANOTHER GLOBAL WARMING SNOWSTORM!! \"Gore has caused the spread of more pseudo-scientific incompetence on the subject of global warming than any climate scientist could possibly have ever accomplished No serious climate researcher ? including the ones I disagree with ? believes global warming can cause colder weather. Unless they have become delusional as a result of some sort of mental illness'"
## [5047] "Open letter to Al Gore about Global Warming, this in light of House Democrats refusing to allow a debate of the issue with scientists who say it is BS"
## [5048] "When asked by McIntyre to provide examples of such activities, instead of responding, Karoly retreats to the cosseted environment of Un-Skeptical Pseudo-Science to resume his victimhood, protesting in the comments:"
## [5049] "On May 6, 2014 USGCRP released its National Climate Assessment. The report contains 8 regional reports and one for the 48 . The regional report for the Southeast U.S. projects a major general warming of about 10 F for the region even though The lack of mid-20th century warming in the Southeast is not simulated by the models. However, 21st century simulations of temperature indicate that future warming will be much larger than the observed values for the 20th century. There is no logically reason for this assertion ant the inconsistency between data and models."
## [5050] "And its not just the Sierra Club. The same day their invitation arrived, Friends of the Earth emailed to say The Pacific Northwest is currently engulfed in a struggle over the dirty future of coal and coal exports in the U.S. If the biggest coal companies in the world have their way, we could have 140 million tons of coal barreling through Montana, Idaho, Washington and Oregon each year. Thats up to 60 trains per day in some of our neighborhoods and more than 1,000ships a yearthrough our sensitive waterways! Can you say fear-mongering? Lies about coal? And a total ignorance of the value to the economy of its use and export?"
## [5051] "Friends of Science are concerned about fair reporting on climate change in the media, in light of reports the British Broadcasting Corporation reportedly spent some 20,000 over six years fighting off a Freedom of Information request about a 2006 climate change conference for executives, as reported in the Daily Telegraph of the UK Jan. 12, 2014 and several British newspapers."
## [5052] "\"This is a panicked attempt by global warming activists to cover over a scandal the fact that millions of taxpayer dollars are being diverted to address climate change concerns based on unsound data,\" says Christopher C. Horner, an attorney and senior fellow at CEI."
## [5053] "The IPCC and CCSP assessments, as well as the science statements completed by the AGU, AMS and NRC, are completed by a small subset of climate scientists who are often the same individuals. This oligarchy has prevented science of the climate system to be properly communicated to policymakers (e.g., see, see and see)."
## [5054] "At last some evidence that important climate data may have been hidden has emerged from the hacked University of East Anglia email furore. Together with last weeks condemnation by the Information Commissioner of failures to comply with Freedom of Information legislation, it appears to put the position of Prof Phil Jones, the head of its Climatic Research Unit (CRU), at even greater risk. If confirmed and upheld by the official inquiry now being conducted into the affair, Prof Jones who has stepped down while it is carried out will surely decide to go."
## [5055] "14 April 2010 13:57 Fox replies: \"Hi Brian - well he specifically mentioned a leaflet published in 1999 by WMO which used a graph without any of the caveats that used. But to be fair he also cited NGOs and the media as being amongst those who take CRU's work and struggle to include the caveats ... he was specifically asked if governments have mis-used it and he ducked the question\""
## [5056] "There are significant flaws with many studies on glaciers, the most significant being a selection bias in those projects that are funded. For the past decade the EU has mainly funded studies that discover receding glaciers, deliberately not studying whether glaciers are receding. Given the number of glaciers in the world, one will always find some, even perhaps a majority, that are receding. But given the inherent selection bias it doesn't prove a great deal when the media talk up studies showing receding glaciers. If one wanted to study Scandinavian glacier expansion, funding by EU Governments would not be so forthcoming. This problem sheds doubt on, and unfairly undermines, well-conducted studies (probably including those done by Drs Collins and Harrison), since one is uncertain what is being omitted in research in Europe."
## [5057] "The IAC and Hauser precedents should serve as a warning to climate colluders and manipulators. They are also increasing pressure on IPCC Chairman Pachauri to abdicate his throne, and be replaced by a respected climate expert who can bring a degree of integrity to this politicized organization."
## [5058] "Later in the section on EPA, Mann??s lawyers went well outside the bounds of acceptablebelligerence, making an accusation that CEI and National Review counsel had made a ???deliberate attempt to hide information?? from the Court (page 24). The ???information?? that the defendants had allegedly attempted to hide was the ???existence of the EPA inquiry?? and that his ???inquiry?? had been requested by CEI. Once again, Mann??s lawyers reproduced the extended EPA Myths versus Facts quotation about ???temperature data and trends?? that they had cited in the Statement of Claim, this time claiming that this quotation demonstrated that EPA had ???categorically rejected the fraud allegations?? against Mann:"
## [5059] "Whether it is long or short-term, Hansen/NASA models are no better than a Ouija board as a tool to predict global temperatures. This massive failure by Hansen et al can also be seen in his model's prediction of ocean heat content and sea level rise."
## [5060] "How do your reconcile your confidence in the model skill when the hindcast multi-decadal regional climate predictions are so poor, as i reported in my post"
## [5061] "Climate models are unable to skillfully model clouds and thus albedo, and use a rough assumption of a 30% global average albedo. If we decrease albedo by 1% from 0.30 to 0.29, the greenhouse equation predicts an increase in surface temperature from 288.433 K to 289.457 K, an increase of 1.024 C warming, mathematically verifying what Dr. Roy Spencer writes in his book ,"
## [5062] "If the model projections for the last two decades are compared to the temperature trends of the lower atmosphere as measured by satellites and balloons, then the model projections must be lowered by an even larger factor."